Posted on 05/03/2010 1:14:07 PM PDT by MaxCUA
Mitt Romney has been the frontrunner for several months but Sarah Palin has been steadily climbing and closing the gap. It is essentially dead even, as of today, but for the first time she has a small lead and it is expected she will pull ahead.
Intrade represents a type of stock market which trades in predictions regarding outcomes of future events. If you believe that Sarah Palin will be the Republican nominee in 2012, you can purchase a "contract" for the prevailing price, currently 25.8. Romney is currently 26.0. This price is determined by the contact traders themselves (anyone can buy or sell) and can be considered a form of ongoing poll. In fact, this speculative trading on events has been considered for use by the Pentagon as it is a highly reliable predictor of future events.
For example, if you purchased a contract on Sarah Palin today at 26.8 ($2.68), and she in fact becomes the Republican nominee for President, the contract immediately closes at 100, and the value goes to $10.00. You would therefore earn $7.32 for each contract purchased. If she chooses not to run, or runs and does not become the nominee, the contract closes at 0, and you will have lost $2.68 per contract purchased.
(Excerpt) Read more at citizenpalin4president.blogspot.com ...
Nittenes is the front runner in the libural minds. They are in abject fear of Sarah. They know she can beat the chosen one. Imagine the heads exploding when that happens. The biggot and racist invectives will fly like bats out of a cave.
Yeah, I guess I just like that he is fiesty.
I think Palin backers should buy up as many of these contracts as possible if only to show their support!
Chortle.
Sadly, the times make the man. Anyone who starts with substantial potential will shine in the 2012-2020 time frame. I wish we lived in less interesting times, but the next president will have to clean up a whopper of a mess after Bush's fiscal blunders (especially in his last few months) and the four year gap in presidential leadership. The right choice will shine brighter than anyone imagines, even brighter than the biggest Palin fans imagine.
Mittens has NEVER been the frontrunner in anyone’s mind but the media.
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Yep, they are pushing him hard. FOX is pushing him and the Huckster.
Mitt’s going to have to spend some money to get that lead back.
Sarah Palin/Col. Alan West (Ret.)
Of course West has to get elected to the House first...
- JP
The media will not affect the outcome of this coming election the way they did in 2008. Fool the US public once shame on you, fool us twice shame on us. I just don’t see it happening. Try as they might, they can’t protect the Kenyan Usurper. He and his marxist ideologies are his own worst enemies.
I think it would be very difficult not to run for POTUS while being #1 at INTRADE.
Since I am convinced she will run I probably should make some money here. I see the trade states Sarah must declare by 12/31/11. Does someone running for pres usually declare by 12/31 of the year before the election?
Fox continuing to push romney and denigrate Palin across the network in their oh-so precious little passive-aggressive way.
This time next year they will already have debated once or will be beginning to. The GOP contenders 1st debated in May 2007.
Hard to do move the odds for Palin, there is substantial money being bet on her. Not so much Romney. Betting on Romney would change the odds, but really, who’s that stupid, who believes the media junk?
Well Intrade doesn’t mean much, just a snapshot of the situation here and now. But you can’t look at that particular betting in isolation to other betting.
In another category on InTrade Palin is at 59.0 “...to formally announce a run for President before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011”. Romney of course would be at 80-90 in that he is certainly running barring (or in spite of) gaffes, family or health issues. But there is no market on Romney or anybody else in this area, only Palin.
So, IF Palin was seen to be running as Romney so obvioulsy is, her odds would jump around 40-50% to say 35-40 instead of the 26 it currently is. And Romney and the others would drop perhaps 10-15% across the board.
That is, at the moment Palin is by far the strong favourite to be the next Republican Nominee, IF she is running, despite all the media obfuscations and rigged polls. As it is, the punters are not that confident she is running, so she is sharing favouritism with Romney.
Cool. I love making money by putting it where my mouth is.
Now if I could just get Michael Steele to resign...
The media will not affect the outcome of this coming election the way they did in 2008. Fool the US public once shame on you, fool us twice shame on us. I just don’t see it happening.
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I fervently hope you are right. But don’t make the mistake of thinking that all of the public pays as much attention as we FReepers do.
Good description. Many of the Foxsters are afraid of Palin.
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