Obozo’s Third Term continues apace.
Posted on 07/30/2022 5:39:55 AM PDT by dennisw
U.S. cattle producers are sending higher numbers of breeding stock to the sale barn, and some are liquidating their herds entirely, signaling a trend that analysts say will likely push already-elevated beef prices even higher in the not-too-distant future.
The latest cattle report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows the market has contracted to levels not seen in years, with total inventory dropping 2% to 98.8 million head since July 2021.
But it's not just the reduction in cattle overall that is of concern. It's what is getting sent to slaughter. There is a notable boost in calf-producing females getting sold for processing in addition to steers, which are typically favored for consumption.
"We are seeing large numbers of female stock have been placed in feedlots," USDA livestock analyst Shayle Shagam said in a radio report for the agency Tuesday.
HEAT WAVE HITS US FARMS, STRESSING CROPS AND RANCHERS' HERDS
The number of females in feedlots is up 3%, and existing herds are down roughly 2.7% from a year ago. Shagam said that combination means "supplies of cattle going to feedlots is going to be declining," resulting in "progressively tighter supplies of all fed cattle available for slaughter as we move into 2023."
With the price of ground beef up 9.7% in June from the same month a year ago, the ongoing decrease in supply could cause prices to surge even further than earlier estimates. The USDA's previous price forecast projected average steer prices would be up nearly 8.5% next year, prior to the storm of conditions causing increasing headaches for producers.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
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Sky-high input prices coupled with ongoing drought conditions in much of the country are exacerbating the sell-offs.
National Cattleman’s Beef Association CEO Colin Woodall says this year’s drought is more widespread than the regional droughts seen in years past, when producers could send their cattle to other parts of the country to graze until it started raining again.
But so much of the country is in a drought.
“There’s no place to go because everybody is struggling to find the forage they need to feed their cattle,” Woodall told FOX Business.
“We do expect the prices to continue upwards, but everybody has to remember that it’s not cattle producers setting that price.
“It’s all about costs. When you look at those who make a decision to send their cattle to market to either thin down their herd or completely eliminate their herd, it is always going to be attributed to the increase of their input costs. And that is everything from the cost of feed, cost of hay and cost of diesel for tractors, diesel for the truck, fertilizer costs. And there’s so many things that go into producing cattle that the producers just don’t have any control over.”
The increased number of cows and heifers sold for slaughter means herd depletion will continue, and building it back will take years.
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What is being done to us is so obvious. We have run out of time.
This fits nicely with your post.
Supply and demand means More beef in the market should mean LOWER prices. Not higher..
(I agree with freeper Ikeon)
Too many cattle being sold should mean lower beef prices.
Perhaps higher prices later when they are few cattle to sell.
price of live cattle as of 7-30
is 1.36
perhaps someone could explain
tia
With the price of ground beef up 9.7% in June from the same month a year ago, the ongoing decrease in supply could cause prices to surge even further than earlier estimates.
I buy and freeze...
This years harvest, with all of Biden’s production cost increases, is starting to hit the market. These farmers realize they can’t afford to feed this breeding stock through to next harvest. With the breeding stock sold off, next year’s beef prices will be off the charts. Guess what, we’re not going to be able to pay for bread coming from this year’s harvest either.
“Supply and demand means More beef in the market should mean LOWER prices. Not higher.. “
Let’s talk supply and demand. With all the breeding stock sold off for hamburger this year, what’s your calf supply going to look like next year? I like the way you deal with “fear mongering”, just don’t think past tomorrow.
I think you are right that the temporary” surge in cattle (cows) headed to slaughter may keep prices the same or lower in the near/short term, but the article is about future pricing going into 2023 and beyond and makes perfect sense.
If you read past the headline you may find more enlightenment about the situation. It is very rational and believable (smaller overall herd, higher feeding costs, drought, longer time to replace missing cows vs steers) as a basis for future increases in beef prices at the retail and wholesale end of the supply chain.
“The number of females in feedlots is up 3%, and existing herds are down roughly 2.7% from a year ago. Shagam said that combination means “supplies of cattle going to feedlots is going to be declining,” resulting in “progressively tighter supplies of all fed cattle available for slaughter as we move into 2023.”
On the short term, more beef on the market means the price to the rancher or farmer is much lower, but that is not necessarily reflected in the processed beef that arrives at the store shelf. The beef, as it is processed, is then frozen, and held off the market, in storage, for the coming much reduced beef supply. There is an approximately eleven year cycle while the numbers of beef animals are again bred up to the previous level, then the oversupply and subsequent culling back of the national herd again reduces the number of breeding animals back to a low level.
Obozo’s Third Term continues apace.
Never heard of cattle farmers. In my part of Texas we call them ranchers.
What happened during the dustbowl? Prices likely went up, but they fell again once the plains began producing grass again. It’s not ,ike the us hasn’t seen severe droughts before. In my lifetime, I have seen several severe ones that affected the Midwest and west coast. As well as the east coast a d even the south. We got through them and everything went back to normal.
Every few years we see the articles about how the “winter freeze is going to decimate the citrus industry, and drive prices skyward” UT they eventual,y get back to normal. (Although bidens assault on oil has driven prices higher again)
You are thinking ahead. Reducing herd size today means higher beef prices in coming years. Maybe we will import in from places like Argentina and Uruguay. I see grass fed hamburger some places. (Aldis)
The drought in the West is forcing reduced herd size. There simply is not enough forage for the rancher’s normal size herd to eat. So he must sell off cattle and operate at say, 50% of his normal herd size.
Watch the Fanatics take advantage of this and push plants , they know people are easier to control when their diet is restricted to plants , something they learned from Cults
Transitory. /sarc
In the short term yes it will but will increase the following years for lack of product.
BOOM! mic drop on the good reply!
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