I think you are right that the temporary” surge in cattle (cows) headed to slaughter may keep prices the same or lower in the near/short term, but the article is about future pricing going into 2023 and beyond and makes perfect sense.
If you read past the headline you may find more enlightenment about the situation. It is very rational and believable (smaller overall herd, higher feeding costs, drought, longer time to replace missing cows vs steers) as a basis for future increases in beef prices at the retail and wholesale end of the supply chain.
“The number of females in feedlots is up 3%, and existing herds are down roughly 2.7% from a year ago. Shagam said that combination means “supplies of cattle going to feedlots is going to be declining,” resulting in “progressively tighter supplies of all fed cattle available for slaughter as we move into 2023.”
What happened during the dustbowl? Prices likely went up, but they fell again once the plains began producing grass again. It’s not ,ike the us hasn’t seen severe droughts before. In my lifetime, I have seen several severe ones that affected the Midwest and west coast. As well as the east coast a d even the south. We got through them and everything went back to normal.
Every few years we see the articles about how the “winter freeze is going to decimate the citrus industry, and drive prices skyward” UT they eventual,y get back to normal. (Although bidens assault on oil has driven prices higher again)