Do the math: Vaccines alone won’t get us out of this pandemic

Stat ^ | 02/10/2021 | Lain Mcleod

[EBH]

Excluding those currently ineligible for vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 due to age or other conditions leaves 75% of Americans with no restrictions on vaccination. Factoring in the 13% of Americans who definitely don’t want the vaccine and the 7% who would get it only if it was required means just 49.5% of Americans would have immunity in the near future. If half of those who are in a wait-and-see mode don’t get vaccinated — another 15% of the population — then we are looking at just 40% vaccine coverage of the currently eligible population, far below the 70% needed for herd immunity. And that’s even before considering that real-world vaccine effectiveness will be below clinical trial levels....

....It’s time to stop promoting the myopic belief that the unrealistic goal of herd immunity can be achieved in 2021 and start looking to reinforcing all aspects of the health care response as we start to concede that Covid-19 will become an endemic disease that will continue to lurk in the population. For the foreseeable future, that means continued physical distancing; occupancy limits in restaurants and other retail establishments; replacement of physical menus with smart phone-based menus to prevent surface spread of the virus, and more.

[EBH]

Interesting perspectives and concerns both by the author and his commenters under the editorial. Noting that his information doesn't account for those already been infected, but in his response that they are seeing re-infection and even with the variants potentially being able to infect those who already had Covid.

So is herd immunity even achievable? Or are we looking at something that is going to behave very much like seasonal flu. And if so, how should our government respond going forward? We know lockdowns don't work and have massive damage on the economy, jobs, and mental health.

Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext#%20 “In Manaus, Brazil, a study of blood donors indicated that 76% of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by October, 2020. The estimated SARS-CoV-2 attack rate in Manaus would be above the theoretical herd immunity threshold (67%), given a basic case reproduction number (R0) of 3.

In this context, the abrupt increase in the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions in Manaus during January, 2021 (3431 in Jan 1–19, 2021, vs 552 in Dec 1–19, 2020) is unexpected and of concern. After a large epidemic that peaked in late April, 2020, COVID-19 hospitalisations in Manaus remained stable and fairly low for 7 months from May to November, despite the relaxation of COVID-19 control measures during that period.

[BipolarBob]

Give me liberty or give me Covid. To heck with these masks.

[Diogenesis]

is it not time to HOLD THOSE WHO MADE THE VIRUS accountable?

[thoughtomator]

No. F off.

Everyone who wants to live in fear should go do it somewhere else and leave us alone.

[Guenevere]

It’s way past time......
....but with the present administration.....crickets

[Adder]

Haven’t you seen it?

Hospitalizations and cases are plummeting since the installation of Jao Bai Den, Imperial Sphincter with Feet!

The overblown cold is on the run.

[MountainWalker]

I disagree. Unless this virus mutates like the seasonal flu, it will eventually be mostly gone. As I understand, the current vaccines cover all the mutations we’ve seen this far. Now, if that changes then yes, it’s with us forever. Barring that, between attrition from vaccines and natural reinfection resistance (I think my father was one of the few in his nursing home to get it twice and most got it once), I see it petering out over time.

[billyboy15]

Meanwhile “cases, cases, cases” and “deaths attributed to China Virus continue to plummet.

Isn’t startling how as soon as they changed the NPS testing procedure to cycle 20 times from the previous 40+ times the positive rate dropped to virtually nothing and continues to plummet.

Biggest scam in history.

[EEGator]

I don’t get why they’re called vaccines.
One can still get sick and still pass the virus.
It’s a symptom mitigator.
The “flu shot” isn’t called a vaccine...

[polymuser]

Actually observe the masked: worn with gaps around nose or under the nose, carelessly handled and stored, infrequently replaced or washed and, the biggest thing, of plain cloth that filters no pathogens, but only stops droplets.

Then, observe touching: touching store products others and cashiers and baggers have touched, touching door handles, touching mail others and carriers have touched, touching car surfaces touched on last outing, touching the mask after touching other things...

It is a joke upon ourselves, to anyone with an average IQ actually thinking about it.

I must believe that herd immunity has largely happened, maybe at 80% now.

[sanjuanbob]

Why take an experimental vaccine only approved for emergency measures that the maker has no liability for....and still be required to wear a mask which they say “protects” us. Kind of redundant if you ask me.

[polymuser]

D’rats want us to suffer longer. Soften us up more. Then, we’ll gladly accept phone contact tracing and ‘their’ vaccine and ImmuniPass (marking) so we can be “free” again.

The recent vaccine release was too soon, a slip-up. It’s all about Big Brother, not our health.

[maddog55]

The numbers which are pure lies to begin with and are dropping rapidly because Biden is in office. Had Trump been in office they’d be peaking yet again.

Vaccine wise, why take a vaccine that doesn’t prevent you from getting the disease again, doesn’t prevent you from spreading it, they still want you wear a mask and the disease itself is 99.95% survivable.

[nathanbedford]

Meanwhile “cases, cases, cases” and “deaths attributed to China Virus continue to plummet.

Precisely, why do we care how many cases there are? The only issue is how many deaths? Does not the vaccine afford the vulnerable a high level of immunity?

Who cares if an eighteen-year-old gets the virus? We should all care very much if an eighty-year-old gets the virus but we can presumably protect the eighty-year-old with an injection.

Why do we concern ourselves about herd immunity, we should have focused on the aged and infirm from the very beginning but this myopic obsession with people who are relatively immune to death from this virus has no doubt endangered hundreds of thousands of aged and infirm people.

[norwaypinesavage]

"herd immunity is a numbers game. It is defined as the point at which community spread of a disease stops because unprotected individuals are surrounded by a “herd” of people who are immune to infection, making it difficult, if not impossible, for infected people to pass on the disease."

You would think that with a title starting with "Do the Math", and in a publication called "Stat", the author would understand mathematics a bit. This is simply not the correct definition of herd immunity. The difference is subtle. When each person infected with a disease passes it, on average, to more than one new victim, the number of victims grows exponentially. If each victim, on average, passes it to exactly one new victim, the number of victims stays constant. If each victim, on average, passes it to less than one new victim, the number of victims will eventually drop to zero. That's herd immunity.

The issue then becomes: "How long does it take? With a disease like these Corona viruses, there is a period where most of the victims are resistant to reinfection. In this case, there is also a vaccine, now. This greatly reduces the opportunity for a diseased carrier can pass the disease to a new victim. In the COVID-19 case, the carrier is contagious for only a few days. He has only those few days to do his part in passing on the disease. With a declining pool of potential victims, the odds of that happening decrease.

The US is already at that point. The daily number of new cases is well under half that of when it was at at its peak. This is at a time when there is nearly universal availability of testing in the country. The daily death rate has also been declining for a month. We have already reached "herd immunity". The only question now is how many weeks (or months) will it be for the disease to drop out of the media cacophony. That is not a mathematics issue.

[RinaseaofDs]

If you take the vaccine, wait 90 days, and you still have to mask and are deemed a spread risk, it isn’t a vaccine.

And this whole thing is one big human experimentation exercise. They will use this event to justify further breaches of medical ethics.

[LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget]

Unlike the flu this thing has no natural reservoir for mutations to spring from. (Pigs and chickens in Chinese squalor living side by side with humans) This thing was lab created. Every action by the CCP indicates guilt. The jump from bat to human wasn’t natural and it looks like the Chinese f&^%d with a bat virus to make it jump. (For the final nail in the coffin see the Wuhan Virology Lab wild bat cage patents and wild bat breeding methodology patents)

The virus is just too efficient at infecting humans and therein lies its weakness. Those spikes on the picture of the thing we have all seen are like keys to the locks on our cell walls. (ACE receptors) Mutate away from having those spikes, and the virus does not infect humans. Those spikes is what is being immunized against. Natural immunity may key off of any part of the virus and “may” allow reinfection, though most likely much less severe, but if the vaccine actually keys on those spikes, no mutation other than a new way to infect will allow reinfection. (close to impossible odds)

That is the theory at least to my best understanding.

Results out of Israel have me scratching my head. Massive vaccinations should be dropping infection rates. Some (gas_dr) say that there has not been enough time, but immune responses fall on a bell curve. There should have been some impact by now. Why there has been no change in the rate of new infection concerns me.

[ballplayer]

Those who perpetrated the virus are the ones in charge of shutting down the entire country,Fauci and Daszak.
This virus was man made,genetically engineered,who knows what it will do.
How do you predict something that was man made?

[nathanbedford]

If the medicine protects me at seventy-nine years of age from the virus, why is it not a vaccine? I consult doctors not public health authorities.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

“ I must believe that herd immunity has largely happened, maybe at 80% now.”

+1