Monmouth poll: Biden up 12pts in Pennsylvania

Monmouth University ^ | October 6, 2020 | Monmouth U

[St. Louis Conservative]

Challenger pulls into double-digit lead over Trump West Long Branch, NJ – Joe Biden holds a 12-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania and anywhere from an 8-point to 11-point lead among likely voters, according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. This marks an improvement from Biden’s single-digit lead in a Monmouth poll just over one month ago. More voters trust the challenger than the incumbent on key issues, such as handling the pandemic. The poll does not find much shift in opinion since the president’s own Covid-19 diagnosis. Other findings show a Democratic advantage in a trio of statewide office races and a tight margin in the generic party preference for Congress.

[nathanbedford]

A preference for an autocratic closed club run by a risible Nancy Pelosi, and yet the Democrats in the House typically enjoy a bulge in the polls and, by demographic surges, at election time.

Before the debate mischance and the president's hospitalization, I even argued for more campaigning on behalf of senators and congressmen believing that the president was well on his way. I now hope that his hospitalization will drive home to people in a very visceral way what it will be like without this man is president.

As for the debate, he has two more chances to understand that tone often wins over substance.

[God luvs America]

I agree its always good to play from behind and not just blow these polls off but people get crazed. The person who started the thread made the asinine claim “Trump has no path without PA,” but lets look at the numbers:

In 2016 Trump had 306 EV, 40 more than necessary.

Pa (20), Mi (16), Wisconsin (10) account for 46 EV- which means if he carries all the states he won in 2016 all he needs is one of the above.

There also talk Nevada (6 ev) and Minnesota (10 ev) are now in play for the President.

[bantam]

Me too!!! I don’t see this at all, anywhere from NE PA, to South Central, up to State College area it is nothing but Trump signs!!
I know Philly is the 1000 lb gorilla, but
NO WAY IN HELL he is up at all, let alone 12 in Pa!!!!!!!!!

[EvilCapitalist]

See post 54 for an example of number 2.

[LeonardFMason]

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from September 30 to October 4, 2020 with 500 Pennsylvania registered voters. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

500 Registered Voters!
400 LV!
MOE: 4.4%!

This poll is GARBAGE!

[wiseprince]

If Trump is down 12 in PA and 8 in AZ then go start preparing for 2024 where the election won’t very much matter anyways. Otherwise get off the couch and go help. One thing that is not helpful is going to forums and screaming about how bad the polls look.

[DarthVader]

+10000!

[OldGoatCPO]

That is not necessarily the case, that is a pundits talking point. Since the 90s no Republican could win without PA, that was the assumption. There are multiple models for Trump to win. The traditional path is to win PA, FL, OH and TX. There are other models. We have written off NY, CA, IL and NY for years. So, to offset those states we have needed the larger Eastern and Central States. To lose PA is to assume many Trump voters died during COVID or changed their mind. It is to assume workers do not like working, they want the Steel and Energy industries sent back to China and they think Iran is our friend. Not likely, plus any poll of "registered voters" in October is worthless. I can think of only one reason to run with those this late in the game. If Trump's debate behavior turned Indies to Biden, well we should see a huge bump for Trump after Biden’s racist comments yesterday. We won't because its all BS.

[wiseprince]

go knock on the doors and make sure they’re going to vote. Talking about it online is, at this point, not helping.

[Morpheus2009]

Because there is zero limit to how big of a margin you can win by. In fact, I am pretty sure the new campaign message is that only Republicans get COVID-19 and they deserve it for not wearing masks and limiting rally sizes.

[EvilCapitalist]

Also, how many voters who were wary of voting for a New York billionaire, but have now seen his accomplishments will show up this time?

[winoneforthegipper]

Trump winning Pa is a path of least resistance but it's not the only path.

As for the polls they are making their Biden Push....Like the push 4yrs ago for Hillary.

Now you must feel like a fool for helping their cause a bit, huh?

[Diana in Wisconsin]

“Instead, he is running ads like crazy in MN and PA.”

Biden ads in Wisconsin are pervasive. He’s worried about Wisconsin, too!

He’s visited TWICE (Hillary NEVER visited us; thank goodness!) and the reception has been underwhelming. Kenosha and Manitowoc.

A google search shows absolutely NO crowd shots like you get at a Trump Rally. A few people lining the streets holding Biden signs. Big whoop.

[Morpheus2009]

Kamala Harris is campaigning in Utah.

[Citizen Soldier]

So he can be home by dark.

[nathanbedford]

Your arithmetic is correct, there are clearly enough states without Pennsylvania, but all of these Midwestern states will tend to go together and, anyway, the odds lengthen considerably.

But your etiquette is far from correct, you should give a heads up to the person you mention in your reply, especially when your reply carries criticism of him.

[nbenyo]

What’s weird is that Congressional Republicans are doing a lot better than Trump.

[RoseofTexas]

Damn lairs!!! Biden is up by 50!!! Sheesh!!!.. they’re getting sloppy!!🤪

[philippa]

I think that’s true in many places.

[JayAr36]

Monmouth poll: Biden up 12pts in Pennsylvania

That can only be his temperature. Certainly isn’t his IQ or his ranking.

Sure they are not talking about Jill Biden.