Flubros - It’s just the flu, bro! Day 11 daily thread (only Flubros/bras allowed)

vanity | 30 March 2020 | Impimp

[impimp]

The American death rate will be far lower than the Italian and Spanish death rates - even with falsely attributing deaths of people with severe preconditions to Corona. Expensive drug cocktails recommended by Trump are helping many people. This will wind up being approximately as deadly as the h1n1 flu of a decade ago. Fauci is wrong to say 100-200k will die.

My concern is for the greater harm this shutdown will have on the economic lives of people and for the loss of constitutional rights. Hoping for an Easter end to this lockdown - end of April is excessive.

[jpsb]

The CDC is full of s**t.

Masks and gloves are the only that works if you have to be around people.

[Boogieman]

“If you don’t know the history of ugly words directed to the Jewish people, you shouldn’t even begin to post on the subject.”

The phrase “money changer” is from the Bible. Sorry, but just because some anti-semites have also used it doesn’t mean they suddenly get to own it, or that anyone else who uses it magically gets transformed into an anti-semite.

What’s next? If I call someone a “Judas” I am an anti-semite?

[Boogieman]

That rule only exists for religious threads I think.

So they can create a “Church of the FluBros”, post this thread in the religious forum under the tag [FluBro Caucus] and then they’ll be free of the “harassment” that vexes them.

[miss marmelstein]

I seem to have hit a sore spot with you guys over there. I notice all of you have dropped the exact verbiage: “filthy money changer.” Not money changer, FILTHY money changer. Directed at freepers who are worried about the economy. Take this back to your leaders: you aren’t Jesus and mentioning him doesn’t make what you write decent or acceptable.

[DivineMomentsOfTruth]

LOL.. I would trust this mask better..
https://youtu.be/W6d3twpHwis

[Boogieman]

Lol, I don’t even post on that thread, so they are not “my leaders”.

Lighten up, Francis.

[impimp]

Mea culpe on the expensive cocktail...that wasn’t my intention to focus on the cost. My bad. The context was that I was happy with the cocktail results and happy with Trump’s leadership on that point.

[bramps]

I heard her say it yesterday. 80,000 minimum. Up to 200,000. Will die. Even with the steps we are taking. It stunned me. But I appreciated the frankness of a doctor telling a patient the bad news.

Not sure where and when she said it. I did a quick search and found these two things. Fwiw, I am listening with rabbit ears to anything I can and have zero motive to make it up. (I know the quote in the tweet says ‘they make a full assumption’, but she was agreeing with the model when I heard her.

1. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/white-house-coronavirus-expert-predicts-up-to-200000-us-coronavirus-deaths.html

2.Ryan Struyk
@ryanstruyk
·
17h
Dr. Birx on coronavirus deaths: “It’s anywhere in the model between 80,000 and 160,000, maybe even potentially 200,000 people succumbing to this. That’s with mitigation. In that model, they make full assumption that we continue doing exactly what we’re doing, but even better.”

[CodeToad]

“emotional states of mind.”

Yours included.

[impimp]

Your analysis is correct except for the CYA effect. Trump’s advisors don’t t want to estimate too low...as a result they are massively overstating death count. There will NOT be 15k deaths a day in USA on 15 April- not even close. Impimp is right and medical experts are wrong.

[impimp]

Related to your last paragraph...how is globalism affected by this? I see free trade happening with perhaps a move to bring some medicine production onshore...other than that it is full steam ahead with globalism.

[impimp]

Correct - I am not a Trump sycophant. I think he is great and I can disagree with specific things he does. Similarly take the example of Rand Paul and Trump - they disagree with each other 20% of the time and they still are allies and love each other very much.

[jpsb]

Cool, thanks for the explanation, and I agree with you.

Bump!

[glennaro]

100 percent of “experts” have concluded that media/social media’s panic porn is highly addictive.

[JonPreston]

I am not a Trump sycophant

To believe Donald Trump has a much better feel for this virus than you and others who believe it's a conspiracy theory, isn't to be a sycophant. Not by a long shot.

[a fool in paradise]

we are told cases will rise but that’s just because millions more will have been tested by then.

same reason we “lead the world” in number of cases. Also lead in number tested, no?

[impimp]

Great - you’re not a sycophant and I don’t have TDS.

[semantic]

After Trump gave out the expected peak/total numbers - a classic reveal moment that not too many people seem to realize the significance - it was trivial to run a simple calculation to find out what bases they were using: 20% daily growth until a peak of 15k on 4/15, then a drop of 20% per day through 5/31 to reach 150K+- cumulative deaths.

Then, once locking in those numbers, it's extraordinarily easy to simply run a comparison based on actual daily updates. And, as you can see, a delta of just 250 on the first day after the 3/29 lock-in projection produces a 55k difference out 93 days:

		      Updated	 Original
Date	Day	     Projection	Projection

3/29/2020	30	2,462	2,712

4/15/2020	47	56,359	88,440

5/31/2020	93	93,986	148,287

Here's what the graph looks like:

Now, the actual totals of course can move back up, but the key take-away here is that Trump actually revealed the target numbers. Once we had those, then we know everything else. And once you have that, then it's easy peasy to run a comparison.

PS Once again, these models are available to anyone who wants them. Just shoot me a PM for the link.

[JonPreston]

Don’t forget to add that DJTs response to this virus is both appropriate and reasonable.

[Spruce]

Let’s see that graph without mitigation. Where final number is ~2.2 million