I heard her say it yesterday. 80,000 minimum. Up to 200,000. Will die. Even with the steps we are taking. It stunned me. But I appreciated the frankness of a doctor telling a patient the bad news.
Not sure where and when she said it. I did a quick search and found these two things. Fwiw, I am listening with rabbit ears to anything I can and have zero motive to make it up. (I know the quote in the tweet says ‘they make a full assumption’, but she was agreeing with the model when I heard her.
2.Ryan Struyk
@ryanstruyk
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17h
Dr. Birx on coronavirus deaths: “It’s anywhere in the model between 80,000 and 160,000, maybe even potentially 200,000 people succumbing to this. That’s with mitigation. In that model, they make full assumption that we continue doing exactly what we’re doing, but even better.”
People get stuck on only part of what is said and leave out context. That’s lie of omission. Dr Fauchi and Dr. Birx also said;
“the model is just predictive a lot can change.”
“models are only as good as the assumptions they are built on”.
The UK model ours were based on was revised down by a factor of 25 last week! All too often these models are GIGO, garbage in garbage out.