[semantic]

After Trump gave out the expected peak/total numbers - a classic reveal moment that not too many people seem to realize the significance - it was trivial to run a simple calculation to find out what bases they were using: 20% daily growth until a peak of 15k on 4/15, then a drop of 20% per day through 5/31 to reach 150K+- cumulative deaths.

Then, once locking in those numbers, it's extraordinarily easy to simply run a comparison based on actual daily updates. And, as you can see, a delta of just 250 on the first day after the 3/29 lock-in projection produces a 55k difference out 93 days:

		      Updated	 Original
Date	Day	     Projection	Projection

3/29/2020	30	2,462	2,712

4/15/2020	47	56,359	88,440

5/31/2020	93	93,986	148,287

Here's what the graph looks like:

Now, the actual totals of course can move back up, but the key take-away here is that Trump actually revealed the target numbers. Once we had those, then we know everything else. And once you have that, then it's easy peasy to run a comparison.

PS Once again, these models are available to anyone who wants them. Just shoot me a PM for the link.

[Spruce]

Let’s see that graph without mitigation. Where final number is ~2.2 million