Flubros - It’s just the flu, bro! Day 11 daily thread (only Flubros/bras allowed)

vanity | 30 March 2020 | Impimp

[impimp]

The American death rate will be far lower than the Italian and Spanish death rates - even with falsely attributing deaths of people with severe preconditions to Corona. Expensive drug cocktails recommended by Trump are helping many people. This will wind up being approximately as deadly as the h1n1 flu of a decade ago. Fauci is wrong to say 100-200k will die.

My concern is for the greater harm this shutdown will have on the economic lives of people and for the loss of constitutional rights. Hoping for an Easter end to this lockdown - end of April is excessive.

[Yo-Yo]

Expensive drug cocktails? I thought the cost of hydroxychloroquine and a Z-pack plus Zinc was about $5 per dose.

[DoodleBob]

That is nice work. However the chief deficiency is that the data should be adjusted for population differentials - Switzerland has only 8.5MM people. If the researcher re-index each country to Day 1 based on when their Case count hit, say, 5 people per million, that'd be good.

[nevermorelenore]

we Have a WINNER !!! Most obnoxious poster on Flu Bros....

[SoCal Pubbie]

The last I read around here it was doubling every two days. Hallelujah, the rate has slowed by fifty percent! Can people go back to work yet?

[MayflowerMadam]

“Fauci or Birx refused to tell the truth when questioned by the press!”

I’ve noticed that Birx commonly tap dances around answering a clear question, as RAT talking heads do. At least Fauci gives a straight answer most of the time, whether we like the answer or not. If the answer to a question will make Trump look good, Birx will not answer directly, but go off into the weeds.

[impimp]

I didn’t realize it was that cheap. I knew that it was being withheld in some cases due to shortages which implies it probably has a very volatile price, if the market were allowed to price it normally.

[Fresh Wind]

I believe the rate of colorful spam postings is doubling every 3 days.

[basalt]

they keep harping on Detroit.,, Chicago,,New Orleans,,NYC,,,i can see where this is going, the response was racist,,,done on purpose to black majority cities on purpose...the media is about to “katrinaize” this..

[impimp]

Those cocktails are effective though.

[romanesq]

Thought this was the fun thread for enjoying “just the flu” bros.

The ChiCom Virus is only three times more contagious and ten times more deadly.

Ergo, it’s just flu.

[MayflowerMadam]

“We’re still waiting for that ‘private thread, members only’ F.R. rule link.”

I suggested that to impimp — similar to the Catholic Caucus thread — but the suggestion didn’t fly. So we’ll have to deal with y’all. So I guess Fearpers are welcome to our home, and if would be nice if they’d try to be respectful guests.

[cweese]

"The Fearpers have crossed the line into harassment."

Oh yeah they have. All sorts of name calling and disparaging remarks, all because some of us aren't buying the 'we're all gonna die' message.

[Spruce]

I am trying to understand why so many people fail to realize that this thing is just getting started.

There is this false belief that “Well, we took two weeks off. It’s all over. Really didn’t live up to the dire predictions, now did it?”

This bug is just starting to roll. And we have people concerned that they can’t get back to buying cheep chinese crap at the dollar tree.

You can find that actual documentation on the strategy being implemented by the Executive branch right here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/national-strategy/index.html

We are in the Mitigation phase. Which puts us on the “up” slope of the curve.

This thing is just getting started.

[JonPreston]

Insinuation isn’t necessary. You have clearly stated that you’ve broken with Trump over his handling of the invisible enemy that is attacking America.

[Travis McGee]

Andy Jackson explains it better than me.

“Shouldn’t the size of the country’s population be taken into account?”

No! That is the point of exponential increases. The important number is the number of newly infected / day divided by the number of presently infected. If it doubles every three days, it doesn’t matter where you start. Soon most of your population will have been infected. The difference between infecting all of Italy and all of the US is about 1/2 of a week.

By plotting the numbers on a log graph you can determine the alpha for each country and as Travis’s plot shows it is pretty much the same country to country.

Now, if you were to show plots for Taiwan or Singapore or China you would see very different patterns because they have broken the chain of multiplication through effective public health measures.”Knowing that Italy, as an example, has 4 times the rate of infection as we do here in this country”

- - - -

You obviously have no scientific training, because you would realize that when you scale effects to the population, there are only two relevant numbers: In calculus it is written as 1/N dN/dt - the fractional increase in cases day over day, and the other is percent of population infected.

The former is about .13 for the US and about .05 for Italy - in other words the “RATE” [rate scientifically means change of a quantity per unit time] of infection in the US is almost 3 times as high as Italy. The second is the fraction of the population infected which is .16% for Italy and .04% for the US. Now why is this latter relevant - because saturation effects will not happen until a significant fraction of the population is infected. Even if both numbers are off by a factor of 100 it would barely effect the rate of spread of the disease.

That Italy has a higher fraction of population infected is because the epidemic has been going in Italy longer than the US - a fact we all know. With cases increasing in the US as they are, it is only a matter of time before we reach the same level of penetration as Italy.

- - -

[hardspunned]

You believe 730,000 worldwide cases is remotely close to accurate? You use that absurd figure to ridiculously inflate the death rate. You take your totally false premises and berate us because most of us on this thread refuse to let the panic mongers stampede us. Just go hide and wait for more US testing to be done. Widespread testing will show the death rate is the same or less than for other flu strains. Not to worry, by the time testing is done, the media stooges will have concocted a new way to terrify you into submission.

[nevermorelenore]

Respectfully, I don’t get on Catholic Caucus and bash their Doctrine, disappointed to be infiltrated by the same Biggie-sized, mocking cartoons every day ! Tired of the Left hysteria to destroy our wonderful country, tired of politicians taking away our rights and printing money out the wazooo, and especially tired of Travis’s cartoons and graphs.

[spintreebob]

The media is trying to get Dr Fauci and President Trump into a fight that neither wants nor needs.

Dr Fauci gives a range of 50,000 to 200,000. He describes the upper limit as 100,000 or 200,000. Nobody in their right mind gives anything but a very broad range because nobody knows how many this will kill.

Nobody knows how many bonehead things others will do. For example, two funerals were held in SW GA that account for many deaths in a sparsely populated corner of the state. It take a bonehead licensed funeral director to allow large crowds at funerals in this season?

Other than those 2 funerals, the #1 spread of the virus has been church services. The pastors, the congregations knew they would be passing the virus and held church services anyway. That is not pro-life behavior.

[Travis McGee]

Exactly.

I think that 1. normalcy bias, plus 2. wishful thinking, plus 3. a real lack of understanding of exponential growth explains the lack of comprehension here.

As far as the virus is concerned, the only significant differences between Wuhan, Teheran, Milan, Madrid, New York and your state capital are 1. the starting point date based on first seeding and the number of initial super spreaders in that region, and 2. how early social distancing began, in order to pull the RO number down.

In a month, all the flubros will get it.

Comparing Flu and COVID-19 deaths.

by Ronan Kelly, FluTrackers

For the past several years, I have been plotting and comparing week to week influenza mortality data gathered by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance system. The number of coded flu deaths per year is only a part of the estimated flu deaths each week. I added US coronavirus deaths by week to the plot and got this.

I know it's not apples to apples, the estimated number of flu deaths is about 6 times higher than the numbers recorded by the NCHS, but there is every reason to believe that the actual number of coronavirus fatalities is also larger than the subset that gets confirmed. There has only been 4 weeks of data. Where is this going to end up? https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/842586-comparing-flu-and-covid-19-deaths#post842586

[MrEdd]

Hydroxychloroquine is two to five cents per 200mg pill.
Oh how very expensive.