Your analysis is correct except for the CYA effect. Trumps advisors dont t want to estimate too low...as a result they are massively overstating death count. There will NOT be 15k deaths a day in USA on 15 April- not even close. Impimp is right and medical experts are wrong.
Then, once locking in those numbers, it's extraordinarily easy to simply run a comparison based on actual daily updates. And, as you can see, a delta of just 250 on the first day after the 3/29 lock-in projection produces a 55k difference out 93 days:
Updated Original Date Day Projection Projection 3/29/2020 30 2,462 2,712 4/15/2020 47 56,359 88,440 5/31/2020 93 93,986 148,287Here's what the graph looks like:
Now, the actual totals of course can move back up, but the key take-away here is that Trump actually revealed the target numbers. Once we had those, then we know everything else. And once you have that, then it's easy peasy to run a comparison.
PS Once again, these models are available to anyone who wants them. Just shoot me a PM for the link.