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Ebola Surveillance Thread
Free Republic Threads ^ | August 10, 2014 | Legion

Posted on 08/10/2014 12:46:23 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe

I have spent a little time compiling links to threads about the Ebola outbreak in the interest of having all the links in one thread for future reference.

Please add links to new threads and articles of interest as the situation develops.

Thank You all for you participation.


TOPICS: Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: africa; airborne; cdc; czar; doctor; ebola; ebolaczar; ebolagate; ebolainamerica; ebolaoutbreak; ebolaphonywar; ebolastrains; ebolathread; ebolatransmission; ebolavaccine; ebolaviralload; ebolavirus; emory; epidemic; fluseason; frieden; health; healthcare; hospital; incubation; isolation; jahrling; liberia; nih; obamasfault; obola; outbreak; overpopulation; pandemic; peterjahrling; population; populationcontrol; protocols; publichealth; publicschools; quarantine; quarantined; ronklain; schools; sierraleone; talkradio; terrorism; thomasfrieden; tolerance; travel; travelban; trojanhorse; usarmy
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To: Black Agnes

It is odd. I do have the wrong guy. Heh


921 posted on 08/22/2014 11:33:32 AM PDT by petitfour
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To: Black Agnes

>>I look for the Liberian government to simply set fire to
>>West Point slum at some point. We will likely never get a
>>body count out of there.

Too true.

And likely with many of the sick still alive when the fire sweeps through.

Gah!

I hate seeing so much darkness in men’s souls...and knowing it is simply every day, boring, reality.


922 posted on 08/22/2014 11:35:15 AM PDT by Dark Wing
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To: Cementjungle

Just personal opinion here, but it seems that former brit colonies are somewhat better with this stuff. Sierra Leone notwithstanding.

YMMV.

We’ll see what I think in a couple months based on whether or not Nigeria really has this under control. And I hope they do. They have a lot to lose if foreign investments and building projects end. If you want to see some of what they’re up to do a search for ‘Eko Atlantic’.


923 posted on 08/22/2014 11:35:41 AM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: Dark Wing

I posted a link with ‘general butt naked’ in the text somewhere. If you haven’t read it I suggest you do so. Liberia was up to no good with that stuff just a decade ago. They haven’t become wealthy enough to largely set aside the tribal stuff. In Nigeria it seems to be largely relegated to trash talking at this point. Everybody seems to be fed and happy for now.


924 posted on 08/22/2014 11:37:05 AM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: petitfour

http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/health/ebola-victim-nigeria-return-u-s-visit-family-article-1.1883750

Some family pics of the Sawyers with this article.


925 posted on 08/22/2014 11:42:55 AM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: Black Agnes
Between 19 and 20 August 2014, a total of 142 new cases of Ebola virus disease (laboratory-confirmed, probable, and suspect cases) as well as 77 deaths were reported from Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone.”

If these numbers are correct, and I'm not ever sure they are, the deaths comprise over 50% of the new reported cases. This is inline with the expectations.

if the disease were running rampant and not in a burnout phase, the number of new cases would far exceed the death rate, probably reducing it to the 30%-40% range.

Either these numbers are bogus as to the new cases, or grossly inaccurate, or my assessment based on them is correct.

It cannot be both ways..

So again, based on those numbers, the outbreak has matured. But that does not mean controlled in the regions it is located at. It means that the outbreak is not spreading beyond those areas. It will, in the end, probably kill as many as 60% of the populations there before it is over.

To me, as a analyst of the data and the news, (which is what I do everyday of the week), This outbreak is not out of control. It remains isolated to the regions involved. Unless that changes, it's controlled in my mind. And I certainly have compassion for those trapped in these areas by the disease, but unless they are hermits and avoid contact with family members, friends and their fellow citizens, about 60% of them are going to succumb to the disease. It's a no brainer...

Unfortunately for them, they will not avoid that contact as we would here in the US. So that is their Achilles heel.

926 posted on 08/22/2014 11:46:23 AM PDT by Cold Heat (Have you reached your breaking point yet? If not now....then when?)
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To: Cold Heat
>>Either these numbers are bogus as to the new cases,
>>or grossly inaccurate, or my assessment based on
>>them is correct.

Since the WHO’s 22 Aug 2014 Ebola outbreak status message said that;

1. Its new case reporting, and

2. Its death rate reporting,

are massively off due to lack of Liberian population medical surveillance plus a hostile Liberian resistance to what little medical population surveillance there is reliance on those numbers is...”problematic.”

Liberian government actions at West Point, with a shoot to kill quarantine, suggest a whole hell of a lot more EVD infected out there.

927 posted on 08/22/2014 12:06:42 PM PDT by Dark Wing
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To: Black Agnes

I found the sister’s page. It is legit. But then there is a Patrick Jr. whose profile is odd. The profile is “friend” of the sister. The profile has her picture on his page dated in February of this year, I think. He says not to think of going after the beauty in the picture as she is his sister. And on that post he links to a bunch of other family members (Nah is the family name.) Oh and the wife of the dead Patrick Sawyer is friend of the dead sister.

Maybe it is a Liberian thing—two men named Patrick in the same family but not father/son. Maybe two different moms. I don’t know. So you have the dead guy named Patrick and his sister. And another Patrick who is brother to the same sister.

The other possibility is that the Jr Patrick profile is a fictitious creation by Facebook. Lol.


928 posted on 08/22/2014 12:08:11 PM PDT by petitfour
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To: petitfour

People do wacky things on facebook, true dat.


929 posted on 08/22/2014 12:09:44 PM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: Dark Wing

I think the Liberian government has decided that most of the people in West Point are likely infected and going to die anyways they’re making sure they can’t infect more.

There’s another slum on the other side of Monrovia named ‘Dolo Town’ that is also quarantined and for the same reason.

If several hundred ebola cases have crashed Liberia’s healthcare system they’ve probably ‘decided’ that several thousand that would likely die anyways are just goners that haven’t left yet.

I will be shocked if ‘accidental fires’ don’t happen there sometime over the next several months.


930 posted on 08/22/2014 12:12:52 PM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: Cold Heat
You never responded to my inquiry.

This thread was not started to dance on the graves of those unfortunate enough to be affected by this disease. It was started to monitor and chronicle progress of the outbreak, in hopes it would be short (didn't happen), but also to provide and exchange information.

Information is the key to understanding what is happening out there, why (as much as can be ascertained) it is happening, and where. All of these can be important for a host of reasons, from personal safety to considering employment opportunities.

This is a disease that will not be defeated by ignorance. Panic can be avoided if it is better understood as well as all that goes with unscrupulous people wanting to utilize that panic for whatever nefarious end, great or small.

So, I'm not sure who you were referring to with your troll-like comment, but we really don't need that sort of thing here.

You have had ample opportunity to respond. Your lack of response speaks volumes.

931 posted on 08/22/2014 12:17:24 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: Dark Wing
Liberian government actions at West Point, with a shoot to kill quarantine, suggest a whole hell of a lot more EVD infected out there.

I'm reluctant to comment on that. I can safely say that if a similar disease outbreak occurred here in the US, shoot to kill orders might also be used in certain circumstances.

I don't know exactly what they are dealing with, but I can certainly make assumptions that people are fleeing the area and they are trying to contain it.

As to the bad numbers, I don't know. What I do know is that because of the total numbers and the issues of so many medical personnel being contaminated/exposed to the pathogen, I can assume that they do not have adequate counts or either the death rate or the new infection rate...so the counts they do have should be taken as estimates plus/minus. However, it is a fact that sampling of data can be valid and pretty accurate, even if the totals are off. So in view of that, and the fact that these are the only numbers we have, I am assuming that the reported numbers should still show a trend or can be used to make some rational assumptions. Until such time as the disease breaks out of these areas or Nigeria becomes problematic, I have to stick with what I have.

But if something changes, I'll certainly reassess...as needed. I have already tossed out my initial estimated total dead. I think this number could easily now double, triple, or vastly multiply from this point without the disease being deemed "out of control".. It's death toll may be limited only by the count of potential victims and their respective actions in the areas where it is promulgating..

Obviously there is not enough willing and able government servants to keep the disease from taking in the entirety of the areas it is established in, this now seems obvious since the reports of raided medial facilities, but they can keep it contained at the borders by force and I can assume that is what the plan is now..having failed to contain it within.

932 posted on 08/22/2014 12:35:21 PM PDT by Cold Heat (Have you reached your breaking point yet? If not now....then when?)
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To: Smokin' Joe
This thread was not started to dance on the graves of those unfortunate enough to be affected by this disease

Is that what I am doing.....????

Maybe you should leave the hyperbole to someone who understands how to use it.

As to your inquiry, I don't recall seeing one.

933 posted on 08/22/2014 12:37:28 PM PDT by Cold Heat (Have you reached your breaking point yet? If not now....then when?)
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To: Smokin' Joe
“Panic can be avoided if it is better understood as well as all that goes with unscrupulous people wanting to utilize that panic for whatever nefarious end, great or small. “

Precisely what I have been trying to counter since this made the news cycle..

You can rest assuredly on your sanctimonious rearend, that I have no nefarious intent except to counter a number of ridiculous fears, which anyone can substantiate by posting the appropriate Internet story.

So let me translate what you just said...

You said that my kind is not welcome on your thread and you would prefer to consult with sycophantic fear mongers...

At least that is how I interpret it...

So as with most of the threads of this type, I will make it a point to let you roll in your own excrement and cease any effort to clean it up.

934 posted on 08/22/2014 12:44:19 PM PDT by Cold Heat (Have you reached your breaking point yet? If not now....then when?)
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To: Black Agnes

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/nigeria-confirms-ebola-cases-25081117

“Ebola Spreads in Nigeria; Liberia Has 1,000 Deaths”


935 posted on 08/22/2014 12:51:42 PM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: Black Agnes

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/08/22/who-says-drawing-up-six-nine-month-strategy-to-combat-ebola/

“WHO says drawing up six-nine month strategy to combat Ebola”

Because, tapering off.


936 posted on 08/22/2014 12:53:52 PM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: Black Agnes

http://www.punchng.com/news/ebola-au-deploys-military-medics-in-west-africa/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Military medics being deployed.


937 posted on 08/22/2014 12:56:10 PM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: Black Agnes

http://www.punchng.com/news/bad-leadership-cripples-ebola-fight-in-west-africa-msf/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

“Bad leadership cripples Ebola fight in W’Africa -MsF”


938 posted on 08/22/2014 12:57:05 PM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: Black Agnes

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/ebola-outbreak-enters-sixth-month-end-sight/story?id=25086106#.U_egOrUMhSM.twitter

“Ebola Outbreak Enters Sixth Month With No End in Sight”


939 posted on 08/22/2014 1:01:10 PM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: Black Agnes

http://www.npr.org/programs/all-things-considered/?prgDate=08-22-2014

The 10yr old boy in the picture sequence from the West Point slum has died. Probably from Ebola.


940 posted on 08/22/2014 1:39:18 PM PDT by Black Agnes
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