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To: Cold Heat
>>Either these numbers are bogus as to the new cases,
>>or grossly inaccurate, or my assessment based on
>>them is correct.

Since the WHO’s 22 Aug 2014 Ebola outbreak status message said that;

1. Its new case reporting, and

2. Its death rate reporting,

are massively off due to lack of Liberian population medical surveillance plus a hostile Liberian resistance to what little medical population surveillance there is reliance on those numbers is...”problematic.”

Liberian government actions at West Point, with a shoot to kill quarantine, suggest a whole hell of a lot more EVD infected out there.

927 posted on 08/22/2014 12:06:42 PM PDT by Dark Wing
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To: Dark Wing

I think the Liberian government has decided that most of the people in West Point are likely infected and going to die anyways they’re making sure they can’t infect more.

There’s another slum on the other side of Monrovia named ‘Dolo Town’ that is also quarantined and for the same reason.

If several hundred ebola cases have crashed Liberia’s healthcare system they’ve probably ‘decided’ that several thousand that would likely die anyways are just goners that haven’t left yet.

I will be shocked if ‘accidental fires’ don’t happen there sometime over the next several months.


930 posted on 08/22/2014 12:12:52 PM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: Dark Wing
Liberian government actions at West Point, with a shoot to kill quarantine, suggest a whole hell of a lot more EVD infected out there.

I'm reluctant to comment on that. I can safely say that if a similar disease outbreak occurred here in the US, shoot to kill orders might also be used in certain circumstances.

I don't know exactly what they are dealing with, but I can certainly make assumptions that people are fleeing the area and they are trying to contain it.

As to the bad numbers, I don't know. What I do know is that because of the total numbers and the issues of so many medical personnel being contaminated/exposed to the pathogen, I can assume that they do not have adequate counts or either the death rate or the new infection rate...so the counts they do have should be taken as estimates plus/minus. However, it is a fact that sampling of data can be valid and pretty accurate, even if the totals are off. So in view of that, and the fact that these are the only numbers we have, I am assuming that the reported numbers should still show a trend or can be used to make some rational assumptions. Until such time as the disease breaks out of these areas or Nigeria becomes problematic, I have to stick with what I have.

But if something changes, I'll certainly reassess...as needed. I have already tossed out my initial estimated total dead. I think this number could easily now double, triple, or vastly multiply from this point without the disease being deemed "out of control".. It's death toll may be limited only by the count of potential victims and their respective actions in the areas where it is promulgating..

Obviously there is not enough willing and able government servants to keep the disease from taking in the entirety of the areas it is established in, this now seems obvious since the reports of raided medial facilities, but they can keep it contained at the borders by force and I can assume that is what the plan is now..having failed to contain it within.

932 posted on 08/22/2014 12:35:21 PM PDT by Cold Heat (Have you reached your breaking point yet? If not now....then when?)
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