I'm reluctant to comment on that. I can safely say that if a similar disease outbreak occurred here in the US, shoot to kill orders might also be used in certain circumstances.
I don't know exactly what they are dealing with, but I can certainly make assumptions that people are fleeing the area and they are trying to contain it.
As to the bad numbers, I don't know. What I do know is that because of the total numbers and the issues of so many medical personnel being contaminated/exposed to the pathogen, I can assume that they do not have adequate counts or either the death rate or the new infection rate...so the counts they do have should be taken as estimates plus/minus. However, it is a fact that sampling of data can be valid and pretty accurate, even if the totals are off. So in view of that, and the fact that these are the only numbers we have, I am assuming that the reported numbers should still show a trend or can be used to make some rational assumptions. Until such time as the disease breaks out of these areas or Nigeria becomes problematic, I have to stick with what I have.
But if something changes, I'll certainly reassess...as needed. I have already tossed out my initial estimated total dead. I think this number could easily now double, triple, or vastly multiply from this point without the disease being deemed "out of control".. It's death toll may be limited only by the count of potential victims and their respective actions in the areas where it is promulgating..
Obviously there is not enough willing and able government servants to keep the disease from taking in the entirety of the areas it is established in, this now seems obvious since the reports of raided medial facilities, but they can keep it contained at the borders by force and I can assume that is what the plan is now..having failed to contain it within.
The issue here with regard to spread of EVD is the confluence of corruption, culture and crime.
Too a large degree this form of EVD is spreading in populations with low impulse control, low social cohesion/trust and huge amounts of corruption in dealing with people who are not immediately related by blood.
The West as a whole has much larger levels of social trust/cohesion and a willingness to deal fairly with those not of your blood line.
There is, however, a significant exception.
Drug abusers, be they junkies or drunks, the criminal culture that feeds them or is addicted, and the corruption that criminal subculture engenders.
Druggies are not going to be stopped by anything but the fear of immediate death in trying to get their next fix.
That makes them thinking, breathing and irrational EVD vectors.
Anyplace quarantined within walking distance of drug culture areas can expect to be invaded by junkies looking to steal/rob to score their next fix.
So no, I don't have any confidence at all that EVD can be contained, if it makes it to a druggie controlled Urban area in any densely populated city in the Western World.