2004 Senate Election List

US Senate ^ | US Senate

[ER_in_OC,CA]

Here are the Senators whose term expires in 2005 (meaning elections in November 2004).

Senators Whose Terms of Service Expire in 2005

Democrats
Bayh, Evan
Boxer, Barbara
Breaux, John
Daschle, Thomas
Dodd, Christopher
Dorgan, Byron
Edwards, John
Feingold, Russell
Graham, Bob
Hollings, Ernest
Inouye, Daniel
Leahy, Patrick
Lincoln, Blanche
Mikulski, Barbara
Miller, Zell
Murray, Patty
Reid, Harry
Schumer, Charles
Wyden, Ron



Republicans
Bennett, Robert
Bond, Christopher
Brownback, Sam
Bunning, Jim
Campbell, Ben Nighthorse
Crapo, Mike
Fitzgerald, Peter
Grassley, Chuck
Gregg, Judd
McCain, John
Murkowski, Frank (elected AK Governor, will be filled by appointee)
Nickles, Don
Shelby, Richard
Specter, Arlen
Voinovich, George

[EternalVigilance]

"His decision will be announced early next year, but there are growing indicators that running for president is his top priority."
-The Argus Leader, columnist David Krantz

Tom Daschle is still regarded as most likely to run for prez, ahead of seeking reelection or retiring. John Thune denies receiving reported phone call from Bill Janklow announcing the latter's intention of challenging Daschle.

Not that many folks know it, but Daschle and Janklow are buddies...which lends credence to these reports.

[BillyBoy]

>> My quick-take on most beatable Dems: Boxer <<

You're kidding me, right? Being from CA, you should be well aware of what happened to Matt Fong (moderate) and Bruce Hirchensohn (conservative). California is lock solid 'RAT now. Boxer's ultra-liberal positions only HELP solidify her "base" of thousands of welfare receipeants. The only chance a Republican has of winning a statewide race in CA is if they are EXTREMELY well known and popular, and running for an open seat. Condi Rice MIGHT win an open Senate seat, but one's not going to be available any time soon.

>> Dorgan <<

In theory, he should be extremely vunerable, but the guy is an entrenched incumbant. The GOP will need BIG $$$ to win.

>> Graham <<

Possible. (cause Florida leans GOP) Unlikely, because he's very popular and has been around so long.

>> Hollings <<

If he retires, the open seat would lean VERY strongly GOP unless the Dems nominate some folksy statewide official like the Sec. of Edu. If sticks around, the ol' goat will put a tough fight.

>> Reid <<

Possible. He's the 2nd most powerful 'RAT, but I don't think that will help him with them being in the minority now.

>> Fitzgerald <<

Pretty Vunerable, but depends on his opponent. One of the biggest problems is that the country-club Sununu "oust the right-wing incumbants" wing of the party wants to damage him even more by putting up a primary challege.

>> Gregg <<

Safe. Unless he runs for another office and we have an open seat here.

>> Specter <<

Scottish law man is vunerable and deservely so. That's what happens when you vote with the Democrats 60% of the time. We need to get Julia Nixon-Eisenhower to bump him off before the general election.

[Keith]

I think one thing we should have learned from the last election is that Rove and Bush will be VERY involved in this process, even down to primaries and encouraging people to run/not run. Ask John Thune and Coleman.

Frankly, I feel we are in good hands with their guidance.

[nospinzone]

This past election we had to allocate a lot of resources into protecting our own seats (North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Tennessee, New Hampshire, Colorado, Arkansas) and we were still able to gain 3 seats (Missouri, Georgia, Minnesota), came close to winning 2 (South Dakota, Louisiana) and only lose 1 (Arkansas). This time around we won't have the load we had to carry before and we can use more of our resources to gain more seats. Depending on how many retirements we get, we can do pretty well.

[Jeb08]

ZELL MILLER TO RETIRE...

...the retirement of Miller, my favorite Democrat, should turn Georgia into our #1 pickup opportunity. GOP candidates may include Reps. Jack Kingston and Johnny Isakson and former School Superintendent Linda Schrenko. I think that Kingston is our top candidate; he is young, experienced and articulate. I'm guessing that ex-Gov. Roy Barnes will be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.

[Mo1]

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[Betty Jane]

Looking at California. A possible Hail Mary pass to win.

Bush wins re-election in a landslide, demoralized Dems stay home and weak Republican candidate wins out over Boxer.

[cinFLA]

He has two years to deal with the white elephant ecconomy he has created/creating.

If only it were merely a white elephant.

[No Dems 2004]

While I'm always cautious and never advocate overconfidence, I believe that 2004 is an excellent opportunity for the GOP to expand its Senate majority.

Pickup opportunities:

(1) Georgia is the most obvious opportunity, as Zell Miller has announced that he will not seek re-election. Even still, the GOP should nominate somebody who's electable, because an open seat is always potentially competitive.

(2) Fritz Hollings, 81, is still a senator predominantly through his advantage of incumbency. But South Carolina has become so monumentally Republican that he's never safe. He was re-elected 53%-46% in 1998, a year the South Carolina GOP took a thrashing at the gubernatorial level, fuelled by a strong black turnout (Clinton impeachment hysteria). Hollings' re-election margin in 1992 wasn't much to write home about, either. The GOP needs to field a solid, conservative candidate like Senator Lindsey Graham, and he'll have a good chance.

(3) Harry Reid of Nevada is another prime target. He was scorched in a dead heat with John Ensign (later elected in 2000), where they fought it to a 48%-48% duel. The Nevada GOP has made great strides in recent years, and Reid should be in their sights. I've heard that Rove is trying to recruit one of the state's GOP congressman to run. Good opportunity.

(4) Contrary to what many people may believe, John Edwards of North Carolina is a vulnerable and beatable incumbent. I'm ashamed of how many Freepers seem to fear this slick, sorry excuse for a politician. I know he's got a television manner, but I still think he's overestimated. He has a radical liberal voting record, having voted against the partial birth abortion ban and sides with controversial, pro-homosexual legislation (like anti-Boy Scouts trash). I don't care what anybody says, North Carolina is a GOP-leaning state. It sent Jesse Helms to Washington for decades and hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1976. The seat could be left open, too, if Edwards is nominated for something presidential in '04.

(5) Arkansas' Blanche Lambert Lincoln is definitely a pickup possibility. It's sounds like an uphill battle to me, but not insurmountable. Arkansas is socially conservative, though the Democrats hold sway overwhelmingly in party registration. Maybe Gov. Mike Huckabee should run?

(6) Not mentioned very often as a pickup possib., Russ Feingold was re-elected by the resounding margin of 2 points in 1998, being hit hard, really hard, because of his etremist views on abortion. Wisconsin isn't the Democratic bastion it used to be, and a strong GOP candidate could whip his rump. Maybe Tommy Thompson needs a new job?

(7) That liberal loudmouth Barbara Boxer is too far out of the mainstream even for California. Unlike Diane Feinstein, who's capable of showing SOME restraint sometimes, Boxer is simply out of her noodle. I've heard that Michael Reagan (Ronald's conservative son) is thinking of running against her. It would make a strong match in my opinion. If the lacklustre, ethnically handicapped Matt Fong could put the Liberal Pugilist on the defensive in 1998, then the son of Ronald Reagan would at least have a chance.

(8) Washington State's Patty Murray is a toughie, but the Evergreen State isn't solidly Democratic, just Democratic-leaning. The WA Republicans recently re-captured control of the state senate, and remain competitive in the house. Murray's recent ill-advised remarks also give a window of opportunity. Even still, Murray is a tough one.

Aside from these 8 potentials, I remain cautious about the others. While the Dakotas are heavily Republican, Byron Dorgan (ND) and Tom Daschle (SD) have learned how to survive, largely via their incumbency. They're both beatable, but only if the wind is blowing in the right direction. That said, the GOP mustn't concede their re-elections.

Meanwhile, Bob Graham of Florida leaves an excellent pickup opportunity should he choose to retire or run for higher office. If he runs again himself, he's gonna be a toughie, though not unbeatable.

Aside from that Charles Schumer could be sunk by Rudy Giulani or somebody, and John Breaux and Evan Bayh are some possible longshots.

The Republicans are surprisingly strong on their side:

I agree that the single most vulnerable Republican looks like Peter Fitzgerald of Illinois. Arlen Specter and Senator Gregg of NH I don't think are all that vulnerable.

The Republicans shouldn't be overconfident, but the odds are definitely in their favour in 2004 (and probably 2006).

[JohnnyZ]

Some more updates:

McCain: on second though, Stephen Moore says he probably can't put together 1 mil to help a Flake primary challenge, so we may be stuck with him for another 6, though he could, of course, retire (PLEASE!!!)

I'm pretty sure neither Voinovich, Nickles, or Grassley has committed to running again. Correct me if I'm wrong, anyone?

Likely open seat in Hawaii (uh . . .) and possible one in Connecticut (Dodd is STILL thinking about running!)

Challengers: Burr in NC, Gibbons in Nev, DeMint-et-al in SC

[republicanwizard]

In the following RAT Races, the status is listed:

South Carolia-DeMint vs. Hollings, or DeMint vs. RAT
North Carolina-Burr vs. Edwards, or Burr vs. RAT
Georgia-GOP Congressman vs. unelectable RAT
Arkansas-Hutchinson or Huckabee vs. Lincoln
Wisconsin-Ryan is out; Thompson? vs. Feingold
South Dakota-Thune or Janklow vs. King RAT Daschle
North Dakota-Schafer? vs. Dorgan (polls close)
Washington-Dunn or Nethercutt vs. Dim Murray
California-GOP congressman vs. Boxer

The races above will probably be toss-ups or close.
In the two Dakota races, I've seen polls showing both within 5 points.

There are two RAT seats in Democratic seats, but we could have good candidates.

New York-Rudy or Peter King vs. Wile E. Coyote Schumer (he stands just like Wile E. Coyote)
Maryland-Connie Morrella or switched Democrat vs. Barbara Mikluski

There are very, very few competitive GOP seats

Illinois-Fitzgerald vs. RAT. (Fitzgerald, despite rumors, is comforably ahead of even the strongest Democrats)
Pennsylvania-Bush and Santorum have scuttled Toomey, leaving Specter free to stomp his RAT opponent.
Ohio-Even if Voinovich doesn't run, Blackwell can waltz into the seat. As a Republican, he would be heavily favored in the state. Imagine liberals then?
Alaska-the seat I'm most worried about. Will Knowles run? Could Murkowski hold the seat?

[republicanwizard]

republicanwizard,

You forgot Reid of Nevada, you dope.

There are so many vulnerable RATS this year it is kind of hard to keep track.

Don't forget that Leahy could be facing a primary from former Governor Salmon.

[JohnnyZ]

You Dope is a phrase copyrighted by Joe Kiddie Katz of Georgia State University; luckily for you he has licensed its use on FreeRepublic.

What's this about Leahy?

Alaska: Will Lisa have a primary? (yes). Will she win it? (depends)

I don't totally agree about Georgia/electability. I think Thurbert Baker would be a strong candidate, as would one of the other names, possibly . . . what do we know about Massey?

[visualops]

bump for self

[nospinzone]

The Crystal Ball's been overhauled.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

[JohnnyZ]

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