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While I'm always cautious and never advocate overconfidence, I believe that 2004 is an excellent opportunity for the GOP to expand its Senate majority.

Pickup opportunities:

(1) Georgia is the most obvious opportunity, as Zell Miller has announced that he will not seek re-election. Even still, the GOP should nominate somebody who's electable, because an open seat is always potentially competitive.

(2) Fritz Hollings, 81, is still a senator predominantly through his advantage of incumbency. But South Carolina has become so monumentally Republican that he's never safe. He was re-elected 53%-46% in 1998, a year the South Carolina GOP took a thrashing at the gubernatorial level, fuelled by a strong black turnout (Clinton impeachment hysteria). Hollings' re-election margin in 1992 wasn't much to write home about, either. The GOP needs to field a solid, conservative candidate like Senator Lindsey Graham, and he'll have a good chance.

(3) Harry Reid of Nevada is another prime target. He was scorched in a dead heat with John Ensign (later elected in 2000), where they fought it to a 48%-48% duel. The Nevada GOP has made great strides in recent years, and Reid should be in their sights. I've heard that Rove is trying to recruit one of the state's GOP congressman to run. Good opportunity.

(4) Contrary to what many people may believe, John Edwards of North Carolina is a vulnerable and beatable incumbent. I'm ashamed of how many Freepers seem to fear this slick, sorry excuse for a politician. I know he's got a television manner, but I still think he's overestimated. He has a radical liberal voting record, having voted against the partial birth abortion ban and sides with controversial, pro-homosexual legislation (like anti-Boy Scouts trash). I don't care what anybody says, North Carolina is a GOP-leaning state. It sent Jesse Helms to Washington for decades and hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1976. The seat could be left open, too, if Edwards is nominated for something presidential in '04.

(5) Arkansas' Blanche Lambert Lincoln is definitely a pickup possibility. It's sounds like an uphill battle to me, but not insurmountable. Arkansas is socially conservative, though the Democrats hold sway overwhelmingly in party registration. Maybe Gov. Mike Huckabee should run?

(6) Not mentioned very often as a pickup possib., Russ Feingold was re-elected by the resounding margin of 2 points in 1998, being hit hard, really hard, because of his etremist views on abortion. Wisconsin isn't the Democratic bastion it used to be, and a strong GOP candidate could whip his rump. Maybe Tommy Thompson needs a new job?

(7) That liberal loudmouth Barbara Boxer is too far out of the mainstream even for California. Unlike Diane Feinstein, who's capable of showing SOME restraint sometimes, Boxer is simply out of her noodle. I've heard that Michael Reagan (Ronald's conservative son) is thinking of running against her. It would make a strong match in my opinion. If the lacklustre, ethnically handicapped Matt Fong could put the Liberal Pugilist on the defensive in 1998, then the son of Ronald Reagan would at least have a chance.

(8) Washington State's Patty Murray is a toughie, but the Evergreen State isn't solidly Democratic, just Democratic-leaning. The WA Republicans recently re-captured control of the state senate, and remain competitive in the house. Murray's recent ill-advised remarks also give a window of opportunity. Even still, Murray is a tough one.

Aside from these 8 potentials, I remain cautious about the others. While the Dakotas are heavily Republican, Byron Dorgan (ND) and Tom Daschle (SD) have learned how to survive, largely via their incumbency. They're both beatable, but only if the wind is blowing in the right direction. That said, the GOP mustn't concede their re-elections.

Meanwhile, Bob Graham of Florida leaves an excellent pickup opportunity should he choose to retire or run for higher office. If he runs again himself, he's gonna be a toughie, though not unbeatable.

Aside from that Charles Schumer could be sunk by Rudy Giulani or somebody, and John Breaux and Evan Bayh are some possible longshots.

The Republicans are surprisingly strong on their side:

I agree that the single most vulnerable Republican looks like Peter Fitzgerald of Illinois. Arlen Specter and Senator Gregg of NH I don't think are all that vulnerable.

The Republicans shouldn't be overconfident, but the odds are definitely in their favour in 2004 (and probably 2006).