Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
(FO) During a meeting of the Department of Justice (DOJ) Election Threats Task Force, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said threats to election integrity are being “supercharged” by artificial intelligence (AI), which provides new avenues to “misinform and threaten” voters through deep fakes.
Monaco is likely setting the stage for prosecutions of AI-generated content on social media that the DOJ deems “misinformation or disinformation threat.” Renewed Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and FBI coordination serves two purposes for “election integrity”: federal agencies can coordinate social media censorship with platforms, and platforms can facilitate the prosecution of Americans who post AI-generated content the DOJ deems “misinforms or threatens” voters
OBSERVATION - “Misinformation” continues to be the buzz word of the swamp in its efforts to quench opposing views. However, the breakout of AI into society has created the potential - and in some cases already has - to corrupt the info sphere with near perfect fakes of all kinds. However, DoJ looks to it as an excuse to continue the ham handed censorship activities we’ve seen since 2020 (and to some degree earlier).
Economy-
The producer price index reading for April came in above estimates, putting a damper on expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting rates later this year as inflation weakens. The PPI gained 0.5% from April, higher than the 0.3% that economists polled by Dow Jones had anticipated.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that inflation data this year has been disappointing and will require patience from the central bank on monetary policy.
“We did not expect this to be a smooth road. But these [inflation readings] were higher than I think anybody expected,” he told a bankers’ group in Amsterdam. “So what that has told us is that we’ll need to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work.”
OBSERVATION - Wall Street has been looking forward to a rate decrease for the better part of a year now. That hopium is about run out now. This also will have significant impacts to biden’s economic policy arm waving as the election nears. Many thought that the Fed would drop rates just before the election to produce a burst of positive economic numbers to help him.
***
(FO) A group of House and Senate Democrats led by Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) urged President Biden to “take robust action” through Executive Actions to lower food prices. The lawmakers said Biden could use Executive Actions to fight anticompetitive practices including slotting fees, and investigate price gouging throughout the U.S. food supply chain.
OBSERVATION - Communism and controlled economy is what they want. Obviously they didn’t learn anything from Nixon’s disastrous wage and price controls. They are also looking for a scape goat with the elections and citizens putting most of the blame on democrats for the high cost of living.
***
It is being reported that the average auto loan rate on a new car has just hit *9.86%* APR. A 20+ year high.
***
Home prices have surged 47.1% since the start of 2020, easily outstripping the gains seen in recent decades.
That’s according to a recent analysis by ResiClub of the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which showed that house prices in the 1990s and 2010s grew a respective 30.1% and 44.7%.
On top of that, home price growth so far this decade is on the verge of surpassing all the growth seen in the 2000s. During that time period, housing prices skyrocketed 47.3%, including an 80% spike before the 2007 housing market crash.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-home-prices-have-surged-47-since-start-2020
OBSERVATION - I’ve said it time and again - the housing market is a key indicator of the health of our economy. These numbers suggest the potential for another housing market crash on top of sky high interest rates. This may sound good - crashing lowering costs - but it would remove houses from the market as owners would be underwater on their loans and would hold on to them rather than sell and move to another house. 2007 all over again - on steroids.
***
The administration is increasing tariffs on Chinese EVs from 25% to 100% by the end of this year, doubling tariffs on semiconductor chips imported from China to 50% by 2025, more than triple levies against Chinese EV batteries to 25% by next year and doubling tariffs on solar cells imported from China to 50% by the end of this year, according to the White House. Other products targeted include medical equipment like syringes and needles, and certain container cranes.
https://dailycaller.com/2024/05/14/biden-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles-critical-minerals/
OBSERVATION - Despite efforts to decouple, the US is still very reliant on China for most of these items. This will result in inflation as costs get transferred to consumers until other sources are developed - though those other sources will likely be high priced as well due to new demand.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The left is desperately trying to spin Cohen’ testimony into some sort of ‘win’ for the prosecution. The majority see the prosecution case evolving into an even greater dumpster fire.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The WH is scrambling to walk back its claims of offering Israel with super secret intel on the locations of Hamas leadership, stating that the US has no such intelligence to begin with.
OBSERVATION - Pretty clear that this was an overt effort to stop Israel from going forward with the Rafah operation and that the WH has been clearly caught with its pants down on this one.
***
biden continues to make the false claim that inflation was at 9% when he took office.
Illegal Immigration –
Congressman Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., said Tuesday that border crossings in the Tucson area have drastically increased over the past few years.
“When I met with Chief Maudlin who’s the sector chief in Tucson last Wednesday, he said ... they’re on pace to have more than 700,000 encounters through the Tucson sector alone in this fiscal year,” Biggs said on the “Just the News, No Noise” TV show.
“Just put that in perspective from 2018 to 2021, the average [was] about 60,000 per year,” he added.
More than 189,000 migrants arrived at the southern border just in the month of February.
OBSERVATION - The tsunami of illegals continues, though reporting has largely been suppressed and pushed to the background due to the Gaza and Ukraine wars along with other political news (usually spin against Trump trials).
China –
Largest Chinese violation of Taiwan’s air defense zone in 2024.
45 PLA aircraft were detected around the island—26 crossed the ADIZ & came as close as 41 nautical miles
OBSERVATION - I’m working to give this area more attention. Over the past few months, China has become more aggressive in its actions and claims in the S China Sea and towards Taiwan. With the increasing political chaos in the US and eyes directed towards the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, I am concerned that China may take even more aggressive actions to achieve its desired regional goals.
In addition to aircraft incursions, Chinese naval incursions and deployments around the island - likely for the purpose of setting up a potential blockade are concerning too.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Deputy Defence Ministers Tsalikov and Krivoruchko have resigned, backdated their resignation letters to before May 9th, despite signing the letters on May 13th.
Their subordinate Lt Gen Kuznetsov’s house was raided and he was taken out of his bed by force at around 5:30am on May 14.
Kuznetsov is accused of crimes directly linked to Deputy Defence Ministers Tsalikov and Ivanov. Ivanov has already been under arrest.
OBSERVATION - These are serious actions by putin in reshaping his regime. Having ‘won’ a fifth term, he is doing the classical communist purge of potentially unfaithful military leaders. The impact this kremlin shakeup will have on the military is not certain at this time, but will likely continue forward on shear mass of momentum for the near term.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia has maintained its full court press on Ukraine via not only its new assaults towards Kharkiv, but all along the eastern front of Ukraine.
In the Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces are solidifying defensive positions. Local Ukrainian commanders are reportedly taking the initiative in the vacuum of poor decisions by leaders at the national level. Russia forces reportedly utilizing the “meat attack” tactic in an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian positions.
Advances in the Ochertyne and Chasiv Yar areas have slowed way down, almost to a halt.
Ukraine has basically stopped trying to intercept Russian S-300 missile strikes on cities like Kharkiv, Dniper and Odesa. Russian has so many of these outdated systems that Ukraine has had to make the choice to used existing ADA assets against more serious threats.
Ukraine hit a major Russian airbase in Crimea overnight. Multiple strikes reported at the Belbek Air Base in Crimea by Ukraine using 300km ATACMS Missiles overnight. Reported result so far:
1x Mig-31 destroyed
3x Su-27 damaged
2x S-300/S-400 air defense systems destroyed
11x Russian soldiers killed
OSINT folks waiting for the next commercial satellite run for further analysis.
Outlook —
Situation is still tense for Ukraine on the Kharhiv front as Russian troops continue to pour into the captured area. Some good news is that Russian advances further south are slowing to potentially stalling as Ukraine defenses stiffen up there as well.
A lot of commentary about allowing Ukraine to use ATACAMS to strike Russian assembly area in Russia along the border. The US has so far been reluctant to allow Ukraine to directly attack Russian territory with these systems. This is one area where the US should allow a weapons ‘free’ situation, creating a situation that could really alter a lot of Russian rear area operations.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- UN accused of collaboration with Hamas in use of facilities and even marked vehicles in Gaza.
- IDF continues to press forward throughout all Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Hamas has been planning to establish a secret base in Turkey as well as other terror cells elsewhere in order to coordinate attacks against Israeli targets in neighboring countries, including members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) according to a document captured by the IDF in Gaza, The Times revealed in an exclusive report.
The secret document, titled “Founding a base in Turkey,’’ was discovered in the chief of staff to Yahya Sinwar, Hamza Abu Shanab’s home, The Times reported, citing the IDF. The document says Israel’s efforts to clamp down on the Gaza Strip over the past decade has “put Hamas on the defensive.”
Erdogan insists that Hamas has not been carrying out terrorist operations from Turkey despite meetings with Hamas leaders and allowing the Palestinian group to maintain offices in Istanbul
The Turkish government has expressed support for Hamas, calling it a “liberation group,” and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “has reached a level that would make Hitler jealous with his genocidal methods.”
***
Israel said its troops had identified fighters in the central logistics compound of the U.N. Palestinian relief agency UNRWA east of Rafah, demanding an explanation. Reuters verified the location of the footage released by the Israeli army but could not verify when it was filmed or the identity of the men.
“The U.N. has in part become a terrorist entity in itself because it cooperates with Hamas and covers for it,” Israel’s ambassador to the U.N. Gilad Erdan told Army Radio.
UNRWA has denied allegations of cooperating with Hamas.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-gaza-hamas/2024/05/15/id/1164778/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
A Hamas Command Facility which was located inside of a school operated by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) in Nuseirat, central Gaza, was bombed overnight by the IAF resulting in the death of 15 terror operatives including 10 members of Hamas’s Elite Naval Commando Unit “Nukhba” who participated in the October 7th massacre.
Hamas managed to launch a handful of rockets towards Sderot, handled by Iron Dome.
Continuing clashes between Israeli army and Hamas in the Jabalia camp in the northern Gaza Strip.
Artillery and air strikes continue to be intense in Central Gaza.
IDF continues to develop and execute search and destroy operation in Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Senior Hezbollah commander Hussein Mechi was killed in a targeted drone strike in Tyre, Lebanon.
***
Between 40 to 50 explosions were heard in the area of Mount Meron, cause of explosions is not reported.
——— FORECAST ————————-
IDF continues to successfully use its tactics to lure Hamas into what are essentially kill zones. More evidence of the UN collaboration with Hamas by allowing it to use its vehicles and facilities is coming out - not good for the daily drum of Hamas propaganda the UN spews on a daily basis.
The Rafah operation continues to grow, with quick Israeli deep penetrations into the town. The international voices decrying the operation appear to be falling off now that Israel has shown the resolve to execute the operation no matter what.
The status of an remaining hostages is still questionable. If Hamas no longer views them as supporting their cause it is highly likely that they’ll kill them directly, or lock them into locations that Israel may hit. I don’t hold out much hope for any other hostages to be freed alive.
Israel continues to successfully hunt down key Hezbollah leaders, nailing another one overnight. The cumulative effect of such leadership loss has to be hitting a painful level for Hezbollah. It should also cast a lot of fear in the other leaders, as this is but another in a recent string of hits on the individuals while driving on the road. This means Israel has some really good HUMINT going on providing timely and actionable targeting intel. This same intel probably has also marked the rocket launching and storage facilities throughout southern Lebanon for quick strikes as necessary.
Loss of key leadership may also be the reason for Hezbollah relatively minimal responses against Israel of late. It takes a while to reestablish chains of command and for new leaders to get a grasp of the ongoing war situation. Many, if not most of the leaders hit have been in their positions for years and years. How much ‘junior’ leadership training has been used to prepare others to take charge is not certain.
Misc of Note –
Multiple wildfires burning in British Columbia and Manitoba have forced thousands of people to evacuate and spread hazardous smoke into the northern United States, prompting air quality alerts.
OBSERVATION - Yes, fire season has already begun and for those Freepers who live in what many call urban-woodland interface areas should get a head of the power curve and review their preparations for wild fire responses. Check your potential evacuation routes for passability. Repack your GO bags, important papers, your communications plans and rally points. If you have livestock (horses, etc), make sure you have them covered as well.
Fires can give you essentially zero warning and lack of preparedness will kill - take for example the losses from the Paradise fire in Kalifornia a number of years ago. Enhance your ability to get early warning of fire activity and by all means - get out of dodge early rather than at the last minute.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
After hundreds of anti-Israel protesters swarmed campus buildings and set up barricades at the University of California, Irvine, local law enforcement agencies responded and students were ordered to leave immediately on Wednesday.
The university said that it put out a call to local law enforcement and received immediate assistance from the Irvine Police Department and Orange County Sheriff’s Department.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-32/
OBSERVATION - There are some hold-outs from the campus seizure protests. Several are in the UC system, with Irvine and Berkeley among the forefront.
***
Folks at Forward Observer are reporting info that revolutionary anarchist groups are planning another economic blockade for the week of Independence Day (July 1st-4th). This would consist of closing key freeways and associated interchanges across the country.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
The Marine Corps prevented two people from breaking onto a Marine installation in Virginia on May 3 and turned them over to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
The two people drove up to the Fuller Road Gate of Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia, in a box truck and were stopped by military sentries, Capt. Michael Curtis, a spokesman for the base, said in a statement to Marine Corps Times on Tuesday.
“When asked, the operator of the truck informed the military police officers they worked for a company subcontracted by Amazon and were making a delivery to the U.S. Post Office located in the Town of Quantico,” Curtis said in the statement.
Because the two had no affiliation with the Marine base and no credentials to enter it, military police officers directed them to go to a holding area to undergo standard vetting procedures, according to Curtis. But the driver blew past the holding area and attempted to drive onto the base
Officers put up the vehicle denial barriers, blocking the truck from getting any farther onto the base, and detained the pair.
Both occupants of the truck were illegals, with one being a Jordanian national who had recently crossed the southern border into the United States was on the U.S. government’s terrorist watch list
OBSERVATION - There seems to be an uptick in the attempts by individuals to force their way into bases or other secure facilities lately. The dark side of this- particularly the Jordanian terror suspect - is that these could be probing attacks to test security and security responses.
***
According to abc news, Foreign terrorist organizations may seek to exploit “LGBTQIA+-related events and venues,” including events during 2024 Pride month in June, the FBI and DHS said.
‘Organizations like ISIS may seek to exploit increased gatherings associated with the upcoming June 2024 Pride Month,’ according to the announcement, which the agencies issued last week. The announcement added that the threat is ‘compounded’ by the ‘current heightened threat environment’ in the United States.
The threats could come online, in person or in the mail, according to the FBI and DHS.
https://notthebee.com/article/fbi-warns-isis-could-target-lgbtqia-events-during-pride-month/
OBSERVATION - The LGBT community will get a big shock is ISIS pulls something off. Currently the Gay/trans community has very vocally and physically supported the pro-hamas / pro-islam protests of the past 6 months or so.
Economy-
The regime is trying to spin the latest inflation numbers as a victory. But as I noted, the numbers have been doctored up by REMOVING components the economy, most notably foods and fuels. Just like they play numbers with the unemployment figures.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
(FO) Admiral Richard Cheeseman testified before Congress that the Navy would fall short of its 2024 recruiting goals by 6,200 sailors, saying that this was “significantly better than [the 6,700] we expected.” To accommodate the recruiting shortfall, the Navy is focused on retaining sailors in aviation, explosive ordnance disposal, surface warfare, submarine warfare, and naval special warfare.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Joe Biden and Donald Trump have agreed to hold two presidential TV debates in June and September, setting the stage for primetime political duels that could shake up the White House race.
CNN will host the first forum on 27 June in the key swing state of Georgia.
ABC will host the second one on 10 September.
The announcement came after President Biden, a Democrat, laid out his terms for debating his Republican predecessor ahead of November’s election.
CNN said there would be no audience at June’s debate in Atlanta, which will be moderated by hosts Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. It is scheduled unusually early for an election year.
Robert F Kennedy Jr, who is running as an independent, accused the two major candidates of colluding to exclude him. But later on Wednesday he said on X, formerly Twitter, that he would meet the requirements to qualify for the CNN debate.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-69017002
OBSERVATION - biden is laying out all the rules and set up. Some where in the back of my mind is Brer Trump saying “please don’t throw me in the briar patch” Both timing and format - skipping the quasi-official “presidential debate commission” of years past. Some think that biden’s demands are such that if trump opposes or wants changes, it would grant him reason to cancel altogether. Other analysis thinks that biden is trying to shore up his democrat frontrunner creds, particularly going into the convention. Risky tactic, as if he melts down in the June debate, it could really force the democrats into a replacement candidate on short notice.
Illegal Immigration –
General reports that illegals penetrating the border have increased in all sectors except Texas.
China –
The Chinese government is considering to order “local governments across the country buy millions of unsold homes to ‘save’ the property market” according to Bloomberg
OBSERVATION - Continued evidence of a very devastating economic conditions of the housing / construction sector. These homes are those in the dozens of empty cities constructed to move citizens from rural area to urban as a means to supply more workers for China’s manufacturing sector.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Putin and Xi Jinping signed an agreement on deepening bilateral strategic partnership. According to Putin, the Russian Federation and China have formed a portfolio of 80 large joint investment projects in various areas.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Intense fighting continues in the Kharkiv regions, though conditions appear to be stabilizing as Ukraine defenses stiffen. Fighting further south has also backed off from yesterday with Russian making very little gains if any in the Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne areas.
Explosions were reported in Sevastopol and Yevpatoria, source of which has not been reported. Russian ADA was reported active in Simferopol.
Reports that Ukraine fired ATACMS missiles at the Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea overnight, the second night in a row.
Unconfirmed reports that Russia is moving men and equipment to the border near Sumy.
Outlook —
With reporting relatively limited out of the combat zones overnight, it does appear that the Russian offensive is slowing way down. Analysts are looking closely at Russia’s actions opposite of Kharkiv and are beginning to suggest that Russia is attempting to establish a buffer zone. Over the past month, Russian separatists fighting for Ukraine have stages several incursions into Russian from these regions to the consternation of the Kremlin. A buffer zone would prevent that. Will have to see what develops.
On a very negative end, defensive construction materials that were supposed to have been emplaced by Ukraine have been captured by Russia, like dragon’s teeth barriers. Russian now has ready available materials to bolster its defensive lines IF the goal is to create a buffer zone.
Europe / NATO General –
The Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico was shot yesterday by Prominent leftist writer Juraq Cintula in an attempted assassination.
Cintula who was arrested following the attempted assassination, is a 71 year old Slovak poet supporter of the Progressive Slovakia party – was a founder of the so called “Movement against violence”.
Fico, was originally reportedly “in a life-threatening situation”, the operation went well - Deputy Prime Minister Tomáš Taraba told the BBC and is now expected to recover.
***
Geert Wilders has announced that the 5 month negotiation on forming a coalition government have finally been successful.
His PVV party will rule together with 3 other right-wing parties.
The “Hope, Courage and Pride” coalition platform presented today introduces strict measures on asylum seekers, scraps family reunification for refugees, and will reduce the number of non-EU students coming to the country.
“Deport people without a valid residence permit as much as possible, even forcibly,” the agreement says.
The Netherlands will take new measures to support its Jewish community and will move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
OBSERVATION - He is also supportive of the nation’s farmers who have been facing being thrown off family farms under draconian global warming mandates.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The inter webs were (and continue to be) filled with the false narrative of “Nakba day”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to hammer pockets of Hamas forces in N Gaza as well as Rafah in S Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Reports that an Israeli drone targeted a car on the Qana Road in southern Lebanon. No details as of when I’m writing this, but if current trend continues, it likely contained senior leader(s) of Hezbollah.
Large-scale Israeli airstrikes were reported in the Beqaa Valley, eastern Lebanon.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims responsibility for 2 cruise missiles targeting Nevatim Airbase in Israel. Missiles were reportedly intercepted and downed by IAF fighter jets.
——— FORECAST ————————-
I expect continued heavy fighting in N Gaza and in the south in Rafah.
I do not expect any significant change in the conflict across the Lebanese border.
The “Islamic Resistance” has melted way back to the point where in the case of the Houthi, attacks in the Red Sea have gone way down and companies may resume limited transit again.
Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024
Jordanian security services arrested several Jordanians of Palestinian descent and seized a weapons cache that Iranian-backed militias had smuggled from Syria into Jordan with the involvement of the apprehended Jordanians. The Brotherhood cell members reportedly intended to use the weapons to conduct “acts of sabotage” to destabilize Jordan.
OBSERVATION - The increased, aggressive support of elements in Jordan to subvert and potentially overthrow the govt by Iran is likely a response to Jordans assistance in the defeat of the drone and cruise missile attacks by Iran on Israel.
Venezuela -
Venezuela has moved “substantial quantities of [military] personnel and equipment to the border with Guyana amid its territorial dispute over the Essequibo region.
The update comes from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C., which this week released a report on the latest developments in the Venezuela-Guyana dispute.
OBSERVATION - Venezuela is moving methodically in an apparent build up for eventual invasion of Guyana. It has spent months preparing military bases and airfields near the border region, now the troops are coming in. At this pace, one can expect an eventual invasion by the end of summer. Likely seeking to cover the invasion with chaos from other global events diverting US and European attentions.
Black Swans -
As sun spot cluster 3664 rotates to the far side of the sun after a considerable number of X class flares that triggered a spectacular light show, a new cluster is just coming into view. Not yet having a number listed to it, it has already popped off a X2.9 flare.
We know one thing for sure - the corrupt press will not notice or write about the total unfairness of having two democrats ask the questions and none of them will remember that CNN gave debate questions to Hillary. And will probably do the same this time. So much for the New York Times 'seeing the light'...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
On Monday, a press conference was held to launch a Japanese national movement against WHO’s pandemic plans. Organizers also announced a protest against WHO’s plans to take place on 31 May, the second last day of the World Health Assembly meeting to adopt the amendments to the International Health Regulations (2005) and the Pandemic Treaty.
OBSERVATION - Japan was one of the first countries to sound out against the pandemic ‘treaty’. What was painted as smooth sailing for this attempt of seizing global power has hit some rough spots that may cause the WHO to water down some portions of the act. Rest assured that those portions will be weasel worded to permit the WHO to sneak back in the original goals /controls of the document.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
***
Economic blockades being targeted for the week of Independence Day (July 1st-4th) by Antifa and affiliated leftists now according to Ngo on “X” will include attempts to close ports, as seen last year. This is in addition to the expected protests to close key freeways and interchanges.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
The Quantico incident now has two Jordanians here illegally, one on a terror watch list. More and more this looks like a probing effort to test security. BIG red flag is that they rolled up in a cargo truck - the type that could be used to haul a truck bomb onto the base for detonation.
Economy-
On Thursday the Dow reached 40,020 points before closing back below the 40K mark. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hit record highs this week as well.
OBSERVATION - There are economists that suggest the markets are a stack of cards, being held high by hopium and govt spending. They clearly don’t reflect the struggles of Joe and Jane American who are struggling to make ends meet, or the thousands daily losing their jobs due to the continued closures of hundreds (thousands) of businesses of all sizes nation wide. At this stage, a high Dow doesn’t mean that much to me other than when the crisis strikes, there will be a much larger drop in prices to be seen.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The GOP-led House Oversight Committee late Thursday night passed a resolution and report recommending US Attorney General Merrick Garland be held in contempt of Congress for refusing to hand over audio of Biden’s interview with Special Counsel Robert Hur.
US Attorney General Merrick Garland on Thursday told reporters that the Justice Department does not need to comply with a congressional subpoena because the DOJ is “a fundamental institution of our democracy.”
A visibly rattled Garland made the statements during a press conference earlier Thursday to reporters after Joe Biden asserted executive privilege over the audio of his interview with Special Counsel Robert Hur.
OBSERVATION - Nice resolution - but nothing will happen as Garland/DoJ will do nothing with it.
Phillipines –
A flotilla of fishing boats is making its way to the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. China is reportedly deploying coast guard and merchant marine vessels to monitor and intercept. Philippines warning it will send combat ships to protect the flotilla if necessary.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Putin says Russian army has no orders to capture Kharkiv, troops are creating “sanitary zone” near the border.
***
Russia expels Britain’s military attache from Moscow, Russian state media reported.
“The British military attache must leave Russia within a week,“ the statement said.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Very busy night for the deep battle. Ukrainian air defense shot down 20 of 20 Shahed drones overnight.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims fifty-one drones were intercepted over the territory of occupied Crimea, forty-four UAVs over the territory of the Krasnodar region, six drones over the Belgorod region and one over the Kursk region. Also, naval aviation and patrol boats of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed six unmanned boats in the Black Sea.
Reports on the ground state that Ukrainian’s drone swarm strike hit the Tuapse Oil Refinery in southern Russia, setting it on fire. It has capacity of 240,000 barrels/day, or about about 3.5% of Russia total refining capacity
Ukrainian aerial drones also hit Russia’s Novorossiysk naval facility. Over 35 explosions were reported in Novorosiysk overnight. Novorossiysk is home to most of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. A fuel storage tank facility was set on fire in the NW portion of the port of Novorossiysk. This attack lasted for nearly 2 hours. Local reports from Russian sources suggest that air defense absolutely not existent.
Follow-up on the Russian Air Force airframe losses at Belbek: 2 MiG-31s and 2 MiG-29s destroyed. The Fulcrums were most likely in stored status.
An Su-27/35 was claimed, but comparison with past imagery strongly suggests it was a MiG-29. The loss of the MiG-31 are critical as they are the launch platform for the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ‘hypersonic’ missile.
Commercial satellite imagery also indicates significant damage to the airport’s runway.
On the ground, analysts are indicating that Russia is barely able to make any progress and is now focusing its efforts on seizing Vovchansk as its reserves run low, endangering its more ambitious goals. Russia initially didn’t have enough forces on the border for a major operation, but now it’s forced to use up its reserves.
Very little ground gained by Russia at the Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar fronts.
Overall, Ukraine reports Russia suffering heavy losses of personnel and equipment across the easter front.
Outlook —
putin indicates that the Kharkiv operation is to set up a “sanitary zone” (read buffer zone). Taking more territory also gives him better leverage if there are any peace talks down the road.
Though the Kharkiv operation has seized more territory in a shorter period since the beginning of the war, evidence along all fronts suggest that the Russian offensive may soon be reaching a pause. Operational reserves have long been committed and heavy losses in men and tanks/armor are taking their toll. Ukraine’s dynamic defense has reformed and is repelling more and more attacks. If Russia is to pull off another offensive in the summer, it will need a large infusion of troops and equipment, both are slow to come to the front.
blinken basically gave a green light for Ukraine to use long range systems like ATACMS on Russian territory. This could throw a serious wrench on Russian operations which currently have their logistic and command sitting pretty soft under the current situation where Ukraine has been forbidden to touch them. And Russia will be slow to respond according to disperse these locations.
Ukraine’s large drone strikes overnight may well generate a Russian retaliatory strike within the next few days. Post strike analysis by the OSINT community is waiting for new commercial satellite images to be collected to judge the extent of the damage.
Under the current situation, I don’t expect any breakthroughs on the fronts. Just more hard and bloody fighting.
Belarus -
Belarus resistance elements are reporting that Russia is apparently about to move military equipment to belarus once again. This movement is believed to have three potential scenarios -
- Sumy/Chernihiv invasion
- Longer term training of new conscripts
- Exercises with the Belarus military
The latter two appear to be the most likely reason for the equipment movements. An offensive towards Sumy/Chernihiv will take months to build up for. Not totally out of the question given the Kharkiv offensive apparent goals is to create some kind of buffer zone, and a similar effort here to produce the same.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Netanyahu expressed his willingness to discuss handing over civil authority in Gaza to “local entities not affiliated with Hamas.”
US reportedly has completed work on the floating pier in N Gaza and is receiving cargo already.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Fierce fighting continues in Jabalia camp, northern Gaza Strip
IDF continues operations in central Rafah. Ground forces encountered and destroyed Hamas rocket launching positions with rockets ready to fire on Israel
A rocket fired from Gaza towards Sderot was successfully intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli and Lebanese sources are reporting that the IAF airstrikes overnight near Baalbek in the Beqaa Valley, appear to have targeted a network of Hezbollah manufacturing infrastructure used in the development of guided-munitions and one-way “suicide” drones.
IAF launched raids on the town of Najariya in the Sidon district, southern Lebanon.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi shot down its fourth US MQ-9 “Reaper” this week.
***
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia will target all ships heading to Israeli ports, even if they do not pass through the Red Sea, the head of the US-designated terrorist organization said on Thursday.
Abdulmalik al-Houthi declared in a televised speech that the Houthis will extend their attacks on Israel-bound ships beyond the Red Sea region to the Mediterranean Sea in what the Yemeni rebels have described as a campaign of solidarity with Palestinians during the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
“We will target any ship heading to Israel that comes within range of our weapons,” Abdulmalik al-Houthi said. “Everyone must stop transporting to the occupied Palestinian ports … It is in the interest of all companies to stop transporting to the Israeli enemy towards the Mediterranean Sea or in any direction.”
——— FORECAST ————————-
I expect Israel to continue its tactic of withdrawal from areas of Gaza and allowing Hamas to try to fill in those areas only to be hit by IDF raids. This tactic has been effective for Israel.
Rafah operation will continue, though I do not expect that Israel will find any hostages alive. By this stage, Hamas has kill most if not all of them.
Israel will continue to take apart Hezbollah leadership and facilities, leaving the terror group in reduced capability for Israel’s operations to remove them from S Lebanon later this summer/fall (once operations in Gaza have reached their objectives)
Could have also been a twisted cyber attack - - one watching which phone lines lit up after the attack - lots of types of dry runs are happening now.
There's ONE THING we know for sure - the Quantico attack will NOT BE A CNN DEBATE QUESTION. The hundreds of thousands of terrorists and bad state actors flooding across the border - wanting to harm American citizens - will not make the CNN 'cut'. Jake Tapper will make sure of that... Tapper: "And here's a scientist who says in a hundred years Washington DC will be under water..."
True, but Trump needs to be prepared to introduce these items during the debate.
Good idea. Tapper will try to stop him from doing that but Trump can overcome him.
Exactly, Tapper will be easier than forcefully taking out two SS agents and commandeering the Beast.
LOL - you’re right - and good one about “ taking out two SS agents and commandeering the Beast.”
I'd like to point out, also, that inflated dollars make the stock market APPEAR to hit new highs, but in fact, that might not be true.
Example:
Let us say 1000 shares of Acme Rockets is worth 10000 in 2010 dollars.
Let us say that the same stock, in 2020, is worth 20000 in 2020 dollars.
BUT, let us stipulate that from 2010 to 2020, there was 150% inflation in the dollar.
So, your stock went up 100% BUT inflation made 2020 dollars worth 66% of 2010 dollars. $20000 * 66% = $13333.
You lost money, even though the stock market went to new highs.
Actually I see that the numbers I used don’t work but the concept does apply anyways
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
***
Weekend is here and under employed college students along with Antifa affiliated groups will likely be on campuses again or in the streets.
Extra precautions should be followed when attending and exiting pro-Trump political rallies from here on out (whether he is there or not) as Antifa et al are ramping up efforts to assault and other wise intimidate attendees.
Economy-
The U.S. awarded contracts for the purchase of 3.3 million barrels of oil to help replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after a massive sale from the stockpile in 2022, the Department of Energy said Friday.
The oil is being bought at an average price of $79.38 a gallon, the department said. The Biden administration sold 180 million barrels from the SPR oil in 2022 to control gasoline prices before the midterm elections.
The Energy Department also said it is seeking to buy another 3 million barrels for delivery in November. The agency has so far bought back only 35.6 million barrels of the 180 million it sold in 2022.
The Biden administration said it wants to buy back the oil at about $79.99 a barrel. Buying back at that price could be difficult with the approach of peak U.S. summer driving season, a time that traditionally boosts oil demand.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/joe-biden-strategic-petroleum-reserve-oil/2024/05/17/id/1165198/
OBSERVATION - The preverbal ‘drop in the bucket’. 180 million barrels sold , 35.6 added back and they want another 3 million back. This isn’t even one fourth what biden sucked out to aid the democrats in the midterms. It all also impact summer oil demands as well, potentially raising gasoline prices during the high demand season.
***
Nearly half of the nation’s small business owners say their businesses won’t survive, if they are subjected to another four years of Joe Biden in the White House – and a look at his first-term performance suggests they could be right.
A new, national survey by the Red Balloon job site and the PublicSquare shopping site asked small business owners a straightforward question:
“Will your business survive a second Biden presidential term?”
Forty-nine percent said they either “definitely” (22.4%) or “probably” (26.2%) won’t make through a second term of a Joe Biden presidency:
Q: Will your business survive a second Biden presidential term?
Definitely No 22.4%
Probably No 26.2%
Don’t know 28.8%
Definitely Yes 7.2%
Probably Yes 15.3%
OBSERVATION - These businesses are looking hard at their bottom line as well as the tax increases proposed by biden should he return to the WH with a democrat congress. Even under good circumstances, it will take Trump some time to get policies out there to clean up the mess the democrats have made - and those policies will be vigorously fought by congressional democrats as well as the deep state.
***
I’ve notices that Gold and Silver have reached record highs. No info on the driving factors. Anyone hear something? BTW copper has passed $5/lb-record highs as well.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
House Judiciary Committee voted 18–15 on May 16 to approve a resolution to hold Mr. Garland in contempt for refusing to provide impeachment investigators with the recordings in defiance of congressional subpoenas. The House Oversight Committee followed suit hours later, voting 24-20 to approve their own resolution.
OBSERVATION - Again, who’s going to enforce the contempt ruling by congress?
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden has invoked executive privilege to block House Republicans from obtaining audio recordings of his interviews with special counsel Robert Hur over his handling of classified documents.
OBSERVATION - This will be litigated for the next years, pushing it out of the 2024 election cycle.
Illegal Immigration –
The Biden administration is accelerating the asylum timeline for migrants who enter the US illegally en route to five major cities.
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Attorney General Merrick Garland announced Thursday that a new Recent Arrivals (RA) Docket will swiftly place single adults before immigration judges in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles and New York City.
Those asylum claims must be resolved within 180 days, though grace periods would be granted in some circumstances for migrants to obtain the necessary legal representation.
More than 1.7 million migrant “gotaways” have illegally crossed into America since President Biden took office, new Border Patrol data shows, in addition to the more than 9 million who have entered the US over the same period.
OBSERVATION - One of many means the regime is trying to use to ‘anchor’ the illegals in the US and prevent deportations.
Russia -
putin is wrapping up his China visit, and his image as a world leader dimmed by Xi and the meager deals he has signed with him.
Economic Impact –
The high cost of the war in Ukraine plus a decade of economic sanctions has hurt the Russian economy. To make matters worse Russia has no major allies in Europe or overseas. That leaves Russia dependent on China, which has the second largest economy in the world. The Chinese expect to be paid for the substantial economic aid they have been providing Russia.
One problem remains, how does Russia pay for all this? China suggested, and Russia accepted, that long-standing Chinese claims on a quarter of the Russian Far East and most of its prime coastal areas be considered as a form of payment. China never canceled these claims, even in the 1940s and 50s when China was very dependent on Russia. These claims amount to about nine percent of Russian territory. The Russian Far East contains part of Siberia as well as the large Pacific Ocean coastline and the port of Vladivostok.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/articles/2024051804318.aspx
OBSERVATION - The ceding of the land to China has not been formalized in any way that I’ve found, but the concept being described here is very much a potential front burner issue. Some have speculated that China could militarily move in and take the lands with Russia bogged down in Ukraine. But this is typical China leveraging its support and money against another nation - seen multiple times around the world but with Russia, this could be the biggest acquisition yet.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia continues its offensive efforts in Ukraine, but we may be seeing the high water mark as Ukraine artillery starts to exert its presence again and Russia runs low on bodies to throw into its ‘meat attacks’. Ukraine laughing counter attacks on various parts of the Russian offensive front created by Russian logistical overreach.
Kharkiv region, Russian advances have been slowed to a near stop. Same for assaults against Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne.
Outlook —
As I noted above, we may be approaching the high water mark of Russia’s spring offensive. The offensives in Chaziv Yar and Ocheretyne as well has Kharkiv appear to be stalling out. If reports are correct, Russia has already committed its operational reserves in these areas and have few if any other units it can draw upon. In part due to the high casuality/loss rate that even an artillery deprived Ukraine inflicted. Now reports are that artillery rounds are approaching an abundant level and the devastating Ukraine artillery is re-establishing itself as king.
Russian fighter/bombers also seem to have pulled back from CAS operations, relying once again on glide bombs as MANPADS and other ADA assets reappear in numbers in the battle zone.
I expect continued fierce fighting along the front and an increasing likelihood of a Russian missile strike in retaliation for the recent Ukraine drone attacks.
Europe / NATO General –
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s condition was serious but stable Saturday as the man accused of trying to assassinate him faced his first court appearance.
Two hours of surgery Friday to remove dead tissue from Fico’s multiple gunshot wounds led to a good prognosis for his recovery but he was still not well enough to travel to a hospital in the capital, Bratislava, government ministers said outside University F. D. Roosevelt Hospital in Banska Bystrica, where Fico was taken by helicopter after the shooting.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/slovakia-prime-minister-shooting/2024/05/18/id/1165225/
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Bodies of three hostages were recovered yesterday.
- Israel states that there are around 50 tunnels into Egypt, in addition to hundreds of others throughout Rafah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
In a well coordinated effort, conducted by special forces and Shin Bet, the bodies of three Israelis who died trying to flee the Nova festival massacre were recovered, giving the families closure; President Herzog: ‘Condolences and a sad embrace to the grieving and tormented families’
IDF and Shin Bet recovering the bodies of three hostages, namely Shani Louk, Amit Buskila and Itzik Gelenter. This marks the first recovery of a hostage body since April 6, when the body of Elad Katzir, who was murdered in captivity, was found.
***
Israeli sources report that IDF in eastern Rafah and several others areas of southern Gaza have begun excavating graveyards, due to recent intelligence that Hamas had buried the bodies of multiple hostages in an attempt to conceal them from Israel.
NOTE - This has been confirmed in another fashion by pro-Hamas media sources that have reported that Israel is ‘desecrating’ cemeteries in Gaza.
***
During a hearing on Friday at The Hague, Israel reportedly announced it has discovered “nearly 700 tunnel shafts” underneath the city of Rafah in southern Gaza and about 50 of them “cross into Egypt.”
“Nearly 700 tunnel shafts have been identified in Rafah, from which approximately 50 tunnels cross into Egypt. These tunnels are used by Hamas to supply itself with weapons and ammunition and could potentially be used to smuggle out of Gaza hostages, or Hamas senior operators.”
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-gaza-rafah/2024/05/17/id/1165182/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to encircle and liquidate Hamas in N Gaza in some of the fiercest fighting of the war. Most of it focused in and around Jabalia Camp.
IDF continues operations in Rafah. Bodies of hostages being recovered.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli army announces the targeting of Hezbollah launch pads and military infrastructure in southern Lebanon
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
A car was targeted inside Syrian territory near the Masnaa border crossing with Lebanon. Possible high level Hezbollah/Hamas/IRGC person on board.
———WEST BANK——————————-
An IAF fighter jet targeted a building in Jenin in the northern West Bank late Friday night as part of a counter-terrorism operation, the IDF reported.
. . . the strike hit a five-man squad that was planning to carry out a major terrorist attack in the immediate time frame.
The one person killed in the strike was Aslam Hamaisa, one of the commanders of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Jenin Brigade, Hebrew media reported. He was located by the Shin Bet hiding in an apartment in the area, Walla reported.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-801603#google_vignette
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
ICC in S Africa continues pressing forward with genocide and illegal warfare claims against Israel.
——— FORECAST ————————-
The recovery of dead hostages in Rafah, along with the revelation of an extensive tunnel network into Egypt is just beginning to reverberate into the world. Some are beginning to speculate that the tunnel/hostage issue is a very sensitive one in that Egypt knew the extent of Hamas tunneling operation and the increasing potential that elements of the Egyptian govt/military may have tuned a blind eye to weapons smuggling as well as the smuggling out of hostages and Hamas leadership. Still speculation, but 50 tunnels is a lot of avenues into/out of Gaza and Rafah in particular.
NOTE that a lot of the damage to ‘civilian’ buildings in Gaza is due to the destruction of Hamas tunnels that pass beneath them.
Sadly, I still don’t expect that there are any hostages alive at this stage.
Expect Israel to continue to target leadership of Hama, Hezbollah and affiliated terrorists.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
***
Pro-hamas street marches got violent in NYC yesterday as police broke up the protests.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Threats of terrorism loom over the upcoming 2024 T20 World Cup in New York as the Islamic State group issues warnings targeting the cricket tournament, amplifying concerns about safety and security, the U.S. Sun reported.
The 2024 T20 World Cup, scheduled to commence in New York next month, is on high alert following the terrorists’ call for attacks.
The World Cup is slated to unfold between June 2 and 29, spanning multiple Caribbean nations and U.S. states such as Florida, New York, and Texas.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/terror-threats-cricket/2024/05/18/id/1165240/
***
The U.S. State Department has just issued a worldwide travel alert and warns of terror threat against LGBT events
OBSERVATIONS - Both based on ISIS threats. ISIS is reemerging as a threat once again and has found that the LGBT alliance with the pro-Hamas elements particularly abhorrent to islam. ISIS has also grown bolder in attacking locations outside the ME where terrorist strikes could be believed to further the cause of jihad against the west.
Economy-
May have my answer regarding the price spike on silver (Silver closed up $2.01 ($31.48) ) and gold this week. Reports suggest that US banks were short a minimum of 500,000,000 ounces of physical silver last week. Bank of America alone holds a 1 Billion oz. short position in the silver OTC market. If banks cannot cover their shorts, then bad things happen.
NOTE - gold/silver prices for paper certificates, not the physical metal. Physical metal such as coins, bars etc are way above these prices.
Russia -
Economic Impact –
A Russian court has ordered the seizure of the assets, accounts, property and shares of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank in the country as part of a lawsuit involving the German banks, court documents showed.
The banks are among the guarantor lenders under a contract for the construction of a gas processing plant in Russia with the German company Linde. The project was terminated due to Western sanctions.
A court in St Petersburg ruled in favour of seizing 239 million euros ($260m) from Deutsche Bank, documents dated May 16 showed.
Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt said it had already provisioned about 260 million euros ($283m) for the case.
“We will need to see how this claim is implemented by the Russian courts and assess the immediate operational impact in Russia,” the bank added in a statement.
The court also seized the assets of Commerzbank, another German financial institution, worth 93.7 million euros ($101.85m) as well as securities and the bank’s building in central Moscow.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy night in the long war. Ukrainian air defense shot down 37 of 37 Shahed drones, while unknown type missiles hit Kryvyi Rih.
Ukrainian UAVs were very busy. In what sone are saying is Ukraine’s largest attack on Crimea to date, explosions covering essentially every main Russian military hot spot on the peninsula overnight. Russian channels report that approximately 100-120 UAVs are currently on route to Russian-occupied Crimea, as well as the Russian regions Rostov and Krasnodar. Several explosions have already been heard in Crimea. Also Dzankoy, Sevastopol, Simferopol, Yevpatoria, Kirovskoye, Saky, appear to have been targeted.
The oil depot in Vyborg, Russia was attacked by a Ukrainian drone and is now burning.
An explosion in an oil depot near Vyborg, Leningrad Region, Russia, occurred last night.
Krasnodar Krai of Russia: Refinery in Slavyansk-na-Kubani has been stopped after overnight drone attack
The Black Sea fleet at Novorossiysk was attacked with the Ukrainian Navy reporting that overnight, the Russian Project 266M Natya Class Minesweeper Kovrovets was destroyed.
Unconfirmed reports that British Intelligence: stating that Russian air defense cannot effectively cover the occupied Crimea any longer
Russian ground forces reportedly are focusing more on capture of Chaziv Yar with reserve forces being added to the fight. According to Ukraine sources, Russia has been losing about 1500 solders per day for the past week.
Russias took a big loss on the Kharkiv front after capturing the central hospital in Vovchansk, and filling it with possibly dozens (hundreds?) of Russian soldiers, Ukraine hit it with massive airstrike. The building got hit guided bombs, possibly JDAM/GLSDB.
Outlook —
Ukraine launched its second major drone attack in a few days. Fog of war and OPSEC limit info on the success or failure and the extent of both. In the case of Novorossiysk, on one hand they seemed more prepared, but on the other the apparent loss of another vessel.
News also more obscured in the Kharkiv and Chasiv Yar fronts as both sides continue at it hamer and tongs. The apparent quick resupply of artillery ammo may be turning the tide for Ukraine.
Looking to see if Ukraine has more large scale drone attacks available. I expect Russia to put a large drone/missile attack in response.
Ground combat levels to remain about the same with Russia working to try to maintain the momentum of the spring offensive.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Gantz’s threat to resign from war cabinet
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Israel’s war cabinet Gantz set June 8 as a deadline for the cabinet to approve a strategic plan for a hostages deal and post-war administration in Gaza otherwise he and his party will quit
***
The Israeli army reports that the body of hostage Ron Benjamin was found in Gaza and returned for burial
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli security forces have surrounded Al-Awda Hospital in Tal Al-Zaatar, northern Gaza. Intense airstrikes throughout Gaza.
10 rockets were fired from northern Gaza at Ashkelon
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US CENTCOM reported that the Houthis struck the Wind, a Panamanian-flagged, Greek-owned oil tanker, with one anti-ship ballistic missile in the Red Sea.
——— FORECAST ————————-
More OPSEC overnight regarding IAF operations. It is pretty clear though that Hamas is continuing to get hit hard in N Gaza and Rafah.
The tunnels from Rafah to Egypt will be getting substantial scrutiny over the next several days. If proven true, then Egypt has a lot to answer for regarding Hamas. Many are saying that the tunnel discovery and potential ramifications is one of the reasons why the US and Egypt were so adamantly opposed to invading the city.
Gantz’s threat should be taken seriously. It comes after meeting secretly with US authorities without Netanyahu’s knowledge or permission. The biden regime prefers the liberal Gantz over the more conservative Netanyahu. He and Netanyahu have been bitter opponents over the past several years and it is the biden regime’s objective to get Netanyahu out of the PM position.
I don’t expect tempo and operations to change in the midterm.
oopsie ping the above
a barrel? Only biden would pay $79.38 a gallon, and he wouldn't spend a penny of his own money to do it...
my bad, price per barrel. not enough coffee this morning.
If they have a CW 2, life will go back to like it to as it was in the 1500’s . Because the electrical grid will be the first thing to go. And everything else will soon follow. Oh, some will have auxiliary generators, but they won’t have a unlimited supply of power. Solar panels won’t be adequate. And the people won’t have the natural resources they had back then. Nor will they have the skills and ability to live and survive from what the land provides.
LOL, it happens to me all the time!
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