CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
***
Weekend is here and under employed college students along with Antifa affiliated groups will likely be on campuses again or in the streets.
Extra precautions should be followed when attending and exiting pro-Trump political rallies from here on out (whether he is there or not) as Antifa et al are ramping up efforts to assault and other wise intimidate attendees.
Economy-
The U.S. awarded contracts for the purchase of 3.3 million barrels of oil to help replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after a massive sale from the stockpile in 2022, the Department of Energy said Friday.
The oil is being bought at an average price of $79.38 a gallon, the department said. The Biden administration sold 180 million barrels from the SPR oil in 2022 to control gasoline prices before the midterm elections.
The Energy Department also said it is seeking to buy another 3 million barrels for delivery in November. The agency has so far bought back only 35.6 million barrels of the 180 million it sold in 2022.
The Biden administration said it wants to buy back the oil at about $79.99 a barrel. Buying back at that price could be difficult with the approach of peak U.S. summer driving season, a time that traditionally boosts oil demand.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/joe-biden-strategic-petroleum-reserve-oil/2024/05/17/id/1165198/
OBSERVATION - The preverbal ‘drop in the bucket’. 180 million barrels sold , 35.6 added back and they want another 3 million back. This isn’t even one fourth what biden sucked out to aid the democrats in the midterms. It all also impact summer oil demands as well, potentially raising gasoline prices during the high demand season.
***
Nearly half of the nation’s small business owners say their businesses won’t survive, if they are subjected to another four years of Joe Biden in the White House – and a look at his first-term performance suggests they could be right.
A new, national survey by the Red Balloon job site and the PublicSquare shopping site asked small business owners a straightforward question:
“Will your business survive a second Biden presidential term?”
Forty-nine percent said they either “definitely” (22.4%) or “probably” (26.2%) won’t make through a second term of a Joe Biden presidency:
Q: Will your business survive a second Biden presidential term?
Definitely No 22.4%
Probably No 26.2%
Don’t know 28.8%
Definitely Yes 7.2%
Probably Yes 15.3%
OBSERVATION - These businesses are looking hard at their bottom line as well as the tax increases proposed by biden should he return to the WH with a democrat congress. Even under good circumstances, it will take Trump some time to get policies out there to clean up the mess the democrats have made - and those policies will be vigorously fought by congressional democrats as well as the deep state.
***
I’ve notices that Gold and Silver have reached record highs. No info on the driving factors. Anyone hear something? BTW copper has passed $5/lb-record highs as well.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
House Judiciary Committee voted 18–15 on May 16 to approve a resolution to hold Mr. Garland in contempt for refusing to provide impeachment investigators with the recordings in defiance of congressional subpoenas. The House Oversight Committee followed suit hours later, voting 24-20 to approve their own resolution.
OBSERVATION - Again, who’s going to enforce the contempt ruling by congress?
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden has invoked executive privilege to block House Republicans from obtaining audio recordings of his interviews with special counsel Robert Hur over his handling of classified documents.
OBSERVATION - This will be litigated for the next years, pushing it out of the 2024 election cycle.
Illegal Immigration –
The Biden administration is accelerating the asylum timeline for migrants who enter the US illegally en route to five major cities.
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Attorney General Merrick Garland announced Thursday that a new Recent Arrivals (RA) Docket will swiftly place single adults before immigration judges in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles and New York City.
Those asylum claims must be resolved within 180 days, though grace periods would be granted in some circumstances for migrants to obtain the necessary legal representation.
More than 1.7 million migrant “gotaways” have illegally crossed into America since President Biden took office, new Border Patrol data shows, in addition to the more than 9 million who have entered the US over the same period.
OBSERVATION - One of many means the regime is trying to use to ‘anchor’ the illegals in the US and prevent deportations.
Russia -
putin is wrapping up his China visit, and his image as a world leader dimmed by Xi and the meager deals he has signed with him.
Economic Impact –
The high cost of the war in Ukraine plus a decade of economic sanctions has hurt the Russian economy. To make matters worse Russia has no major allies in Europe or overseas. That leaves Russia dependent on China, which has the second largest economy in the world. The Chinese expect to be paid for the substantial economic aid they have been providing Russia.
One problem remains, how does Russia pay for all this? China suggested, and Russia accepted, that long-standing Chinese claims on a quarter of the Russian Far East and most of its prime coastal areas be considered as a form of payment. China never canceled these claims, even in the 1940s and 50s when China was very dependent on Russia. These claims amount to about nine percent of Russian territory. The Russian Far East contains part of Siberia as well as the large Pacific Ocean coastline and the port of Vladivostok.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/articles/2024051804318.aspx
OBSERVATION - The ceding of the land to China has not been formalized in any way that I’ve found, but the concept being described here is very much a potential front burner issue. Some have speculated that China could militarily move in and take the lands with Russia bogged down in Ukraine. But this is typical China leveraging its support and money against another nation - seen multiple times around the world but with Russia, this could be the biggest acquisition yet.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia continues its offensive efforts in Ukraine, but we may be seeing the high water mark as Ukraine artillery starts to exert its presence again and Russia runs low on bodies to throw into its ‘meat attacks’. Ukraine laughing counter attacks on various parts of the Russian offensive front created by Russian logistical overreach.
Kharkiv region, Russian advances have been slowed to a near stop. Same for assaults against Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne.
Outlook —
As I noted above, we may be approaching the high water mark of Russia’s spring offensive. The offensives in Chaziv Yar and Ocheretyne as well has Kharkiv appear to be stalling out. If reports are correct, Russia has already committed its operational reserves in these areas and have few if any other units it can draw upon. In part due to the high casuality/loss rate that even an artillery deprived Ukraine inflicted. Now reports are that artillery rounds are approaching an abundant level and the devastating Ukraine artillery is re-establishing itself as king.
Russian fighter/bombers also seem to have pulled back from CAS operations, relying once again on glide bombs as MANPADS and other ADA assets reappear in numbers in the battle zone.
I expect continued fierce fighting along the front and an increasing likelihood of a Russian missile strike in retaliation for the recent Ukraine drone attacks.
Europe / NATO General –
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s condition was serious but stable Saturday as the man accused of trying to assassinate him faced his first court appearance.
Two hours of surgery Friday to remove dead tissue from Fico’s multiple gunshot wounds led to a good prognosis for his recovery but he was still not well enough to travel to a hospital in the capital, Bratislava, government ministers said outside University F. D. Roosevelt Hospital in Banska Bystrica, where Fico was taken by helicopter after the shooting.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/slovakia-prime-minister-shooting/2024/05/18/id/1165225/
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Bodies of three hostages were recovered yesterday.
- Israel states that there are around 50 tunnels into Egypt, in addition to hundreds of others throughout Rafah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
In a well coordinated effort, conducted by special forces and Shin Bet, the bodies of three Israelis who died trying to flee the Nova festival massacre were recovered, giving the families closure; President Herzog: ‘Condolences and a sad embrace to the grieving and tormented families’
IDF and Shin Bet recovering the bodies of three hostages, namely Shani Louk, Amit Buskila and Itzik Gelenter. This marks the first recovery of a hostage body since April 6, when the body of Elad Katzir, who was murdered in captivity, was found.
***
Israeli sources report that IDF in eastern Rafah and several others areas of southern Gaza have begun excavating graveyards, due to recent intelligence that Hamas had buried the bodies of multiple hostages in an attempt to conceal them from Israel.
NOTE - This has been confirmed in another fashion by pro-Hamas media sources that have reported that Israel is ‘desecrating’ cemeteries in Gaza.
***
During a hearing on Friday at The Hague, Israel reportedly announced it has discovered “nearly 700 tunnel shafts” underneath the city of Rafah in southern Gaza and about 50 of them “cross into Egypt.”
“Nearly 700 tunnel shafts have been identified in Rafah, from which approximately 50 tunnels cross into Egypt. These tunnels are used by Hamas to supply itself with weapons and ammunition and could potentially be used to smuggle out of Gaza hostages, or Hamas senior operators.”
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-gaza-rafah/2024/05/17/id/1165182/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to encircle and liquidate Hamas in N Gaza in some of the fiercest fighting of the war. Most of it focused in and around Jabalia Camp.
IDF continues operations in Rafah. Bodies of hostages being recovered.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli army announces the targeting of Hezbollah launch pads and military infrastructure in southern Lebanon
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
A car was targeted inside Syrian territory near the Masnaa border crossing with Lebanon. Possible high level Hezbollah/Hamas/IRGC person on board.
———WEST BANK——————————-
An IAF fighter jet targeted a building in Jenin in the northern West Bank late Friday night as part of a counter-terrorism operation, the IDF reported.
. . . the strike hit a five-man squad that was planning to carry out a major terrorist attack in the immediate time frame.
The one person killed in the strike was Aslam Hamaisa, one of the commanders of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Jenin Brigade, Hebrew media reported. He was located by the Shin Bet hiding in an apartment in the area, Walla reported.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-801603#google_vignette
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
ICC in S Africa continues pressing forward with genocide and illegal warfare claims against Israel.
——— FORECAST ————————-
The recovery of dead hostages in Rafah, along with the revelation of an extensive tunnel network into Egypt is just beginning to reverberate into the world. Some are beginning to speculate that the tunnel/hostage issue is a very sensitive one in that Egypt knew the extent of Hamas tunneling operation and the increasing potential that elements of the Egyptian govt/military may have tuned a blind eye to weapons smuggling as well as the smuggling out of hostages and Hamas leadership. Still speculation, but 50 tunnels is a lot of avenues into/out of Gaza and Rafah in particular.
NOTE that a lot of the damage to ‘civilian’ buildings in Gaza is due to the destruction of Hamas tunnels that pass beneath them.
Sadly, I still don’t expect that there are any hostages alive at this stage.
Expect Israel to continue to target leadership of Hama, Hezbollah and affiliated terrorists.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
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Pro-hamas street marches got violent in NYC yesterday as police broke up the protests.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Threats of terrorism loom over the upcoming 2024 T20 World Cup in New York as the Islamic State group issues warnings targeting the cricket tournament, amplifying concerns about safety and security, the U.S. Sun reported.
The 2024 T20 World Cup, scheduled to commence in New York next month, is on high alert following the terrorists’ call for attacks.
The World Cup is slated to unfold between June 2 and 29, spanning multiple Caribbean nations and U.S. states such as Florida, New York, and Texas.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/terror-threats-cricket/2024/05/18/id/1165240/
***
The U.S. State Department has just issued a worldwide travel alert and warns of terror threat against LGBT events
OBSERVATIONS - Both based on ISIS threats. ISIS is reemerging as a threat once again and has found that the LGBT alliance with the pro-Hamas elements particularly abhorrent to islam. ISIS has also grown bolder in attacking locations outside the ME where terrorist strikes could be believed to further the cause of jihad against the west.
Economy-
May have my answer regarding the price spike on silver (Silver closed up $2.01 ($31.48) ) and gold this week. Reports suggest that US banks were short a minimum of 500,000,000 ounces of physical silver last week. Bank of America alone holds a 1 Billion oz. short position in the silver OTC market. If banks cannot cover their shorts, then bad things happen.
NOTE - gold/silver prices for paper certificates, not the physical metal. Physical metal such as coins, bars etc are way above these prices.
Russia -
Economic Impact –
A Russian court has ordered the seizure of the assets, accounts, property and shares of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank in the country as part of a lawsuit involving the German banks, court documents showed.
The banks are among the guarantor lenders under a contract for the construction of a gas processing plant in Russia with the German company Linde. The project was terminated due to Western sanctions.
A court in St Petersburg ruled in favour of seizing 239 million euros ($260m) from Deutsche Bank, documents dated May 16 showed.
Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt said it had already provisioned about 260 million euros ($283m) for the case.
“We will need to see how this claim is implemented by the Russian courts and assess the immediate operational impact in Russia,” the bank added in a statement.
The court also seized the assets of Commerzbank, another German financial institution, worth 93.7 million euros ($101.85m) as well as securities and the bank’s building in central Moscow.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy night in the long war. Ukrainian air defense shot down 37 of 37 Shahed drones, while unknown type missiles hit Kryvyi Rih.
Ukrainian UAVs were very busy. In what sone are saying is Ukraine’s largest attack on Crimea to date, explosions covering essentially every main Russian military hot spot on the peninsula overnight. Russian channels report that approximately 100-120 UAVs are currently on route to Russian-occupied Crimea, as well as the Russian regions Rostov and Krasnodar. Several explosions have already been heard in Crimea. Also Dzankoy, Sevastopol, Simferopol, Yevpatoria, Kirovskoye, Saky, appear to have been targeted.
The oil depot in Vyborg, Russia was attacked by a Ukrainian drone and is now burning.
An explosion in an oil depot near Vyborg, Leningrad Region, Russia, occurred last night.
Krasnodar Krai of Russia: Refinery in Slavyansk-na-Kubani has been stopped after overnight drone attack
The Black Sea fleet at Novorossiysk was attacked with the Ukrainian Navy reporting that overnight, the Russian Project 266M Natya Class Minesweeper Kovrovets was destroyed.
Unconfirmed reports that British Intelligence: stating that Russian air defense cannot effectively cover the occupied Crimea any longer
Russian ground forces reportedly are focusing more on capture of Chaziv Yar with reserve forces being added to the fight. According to Ukraine sources, Russia has been losing about 1500 solders per day for the past week.
Russias took a big loss on the Kharkiv front after capturing the central hospital in Vovchansk, and filling it with possibly dozens (hundreds?) of Russian soldiers, Ukraine hit it with massive airstrike. The building got hit guided bombs, possibly JDAM/GLSDB.
Outlook —
Ukraine launched its second major drone attack in a few days. Fog of war and OPSEC limit info on the success or failure and the extent of both. In the case of Novorossiysk, on one hand they seemed more prepared, but on the other the apparent loss of another vessel.
News also more obscured in the Kharkiv and Chasiv Yar fronts as both sides continue at it hamer and tongs. The apparent quick resupply of artillery ammo may be turning the tide for Ukraine.
Looking to see if Ukraine has more large scale drone attacks available. I expect Russia to put a large drone/missile attack in response.
Ground combat levels to remain about the same with Russia working to try to maintain the momentum of the spring offensive.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Gantz’s threat to resign from war cabinet
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
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Israel’s war cabinet Gantz set June 8 as a deadline for the cabinet to approve a strategic plan for a hostages deal and post-war administration in Gaza otherwise he and his party will quit
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The Israeli army reports that the body of hostage Ron Benjamin was found in Gaza and returned for burial
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli security forces have surrounded Al-Awda Hospital in Tal Al-Zaatar, northern Gaza. Intense airstrikes throughout Gaza.
10 rockets were fired from northern Gaza at Ashkelon
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US CENTCOM reported that the Houthis struck the Wind, a Panamanian-flagged, Greek-owned oil tanker, with one anti-ship ballistic missile in the Red Sea.
——— FORECAST ————————-
More OPSEC overnight regarding IAF operations. It is pretty clear though that Hamas is continuing to get hit hard in N Gaza and Rafah.
The tunnels from Rafah to Egypt will be getting substantial scrutiny over the next several days. If proven true, then Egypt has a lot to answer for regarding Hamas. Many are saying that the tunnel discovery and potential ramifications is one of the reasons why the US and Egypt were so adamantly opposed to invading the city.
Gantz’s threat should be taken seriously. It comes after meeting secretly with US authorities without Netanyahu’s knowledge or permission. The biden regime prefers the liberal Gantz over the more conservative Netanyahu. He and Netanyahu have been bitter opponents over the past several years and it is the biden regime’s objective to get Netanyahu out of the PM position.
I don’t expect tempo and operations to change in the midterm.