CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
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Pro-hamas street marches got violent in NYC yesterday as police broke up the protests.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Threats of terrorism loom over the upcoming 2024 T20 World Cup in New York as the Islamic State group issues warnings targeting the cricket tournament, amplifying concerns about safety and security, the U.S. Sun reported.
The 2024 T20 World Cup, scheduled to commence in New York next month, is on high alert following the terrorists’ call for attacks.
The World Cup is slated to unfold between June 2 and 29, spanning multiple Caribbean nations and U.S. states such as Florida, New York, and Texas.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/terror-threats-cricket/2024/05/18/id/1165240/
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The U.S. State Department has just issued a worldwide travel alert and warns of terror threat against LGBT events
OBSERVATIONS - Both based on ISIS threats. ISIS is reemerging as a threat once again and has found that the LGBT alliance with the pro-Hamas elements particularly abhorrent to islam. ISIS has also grown bolder in attacking locations outside the ME where terrorist strikes could be believed to further the cause of jihad against the west.
Economy-
May have my answer regarding the price spike on silver (Silver closed up $2.01 ($31.48) ) and gold this week. Reports suggest that US banks were short a minimum of 500,000,000 ounces of physical silver last week. Bank of America alone holds a 1 Billion oz. short position in the silver OTC market. If banks cannot cover their shorts, then bad things happen.
NOTE - gold/silver prices for paper certificates, not the physical metal. Physical metal such as coins, bars etc are way above these prices.
Russia -
Economic Impact –
A Russian court has ordered the seizure of the assets, accounts, property and shares of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank in the country as part of a lawsuit involving the German banks, court documents showed.
The banks are among the guarantor lenders under a contract for the construction of a gas processing plant in Russia with the German company Linde. The project was terminated due to Western sanctions.
A court in St Petersburg ruled in favour of seizing 239 million euros ($260m) from Deutsche Bank, documents dated May 16 showed.
Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt said it had already provisioned about 260 million euros ($283m) for the case.
“We will need to see how this claim is implemented by the Russian courts and assess the immediate operational impact in Russia,” the bank added in a statement.
The court also seized the assets of Commerzbank, another German financial institution, worth 93.7 million euros ($101.85m) as well as securities and the bank’s building in central Moscow.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy night in the long war. Ukrainian air defense shot down 37 of 37 Shahed drones, while unknown type missiles hit Kryvyi Rih.
Ukrainian UAVs were very busy. In what sone are saying is Ukraine’s largest attack on Crimea to date, explosions covering essentially every main Russian military hot spot on the peninsula overnight. Russian channels report that approximately 100-120 UAVs are currently on route to Russian-occupied Crimea, as well as the Russian regions Rostov and Krasnodar. Several explosions have already been heard in Crimea. Also Dzankoy, Sevastopol, Simferopol, Yevpatoria, Kirovskoye, Saky, appear to have been targeted.
The oil depot in Vyborg, Russia was attacked by a Ukrainian drone and is now burning.
An explosion in an oil depot near Vyborg, Leningrad Region, Russia, occurred last night.
Krasnodar Krai of Russia: Refinery in Slavyansk-na-Kubani has been stopped after overnight drone attack
The Black Sea fleet at Novorossiysk was attacked with the Ukrainian Navy reporting that overnight, the Russian Project 266M Natya Class Minesweeper Kovrovets was destroyed.
Unconfirmed reports that British Intelligence: stating that Russian air defense cannot effectively cover the occupied Crimea any longer
Russian ground forces reportedly are focusing more on capture of Chaziv Yar with reserve forces being added to the fight. According to Ukraine sources, Russia has been losing about 1500 solders per day for the past week.
Russias took a big loss on the Kharkiv front after capturing the central hospital in Vovchansk, and filling it with possibly dozens (hundreds?) of Russian soldiers, Ukraine hit it with massive airstrike. The building got hit guided bombs, possibly JDAM/GLSDB.
Outlook —
Ukraine launched its second major drone attack in a few days. Fog of war and OPSEC limit info on the success or failure and the extent of both. In the case of Novorossiysk, on one hand they seemed more prepared, but on the other the apparent loss of another vessel.
News also more obscured in the Kharkiv and Chasiv Yar fronts as both sides continue at it hamer and tongs. The apparent quick resupply of artillery ammo may be turning the tide for Ukraine.
Looking to see if Ukraine has more large scale drone attacks available. I expect Russia to put a large drone/missile attack in response.
Ground combat levels to remain about the same with Russia working to try to maintain the momentum of the spring offensive.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Gantz’s threat to resign from war cabinet
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
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Israel’s war cabinet Gantz set June 8 as a deadline for the cabinet to approve a strategic plan for a hostages deal and post-war administration in Gaza otherwise he and his party will quit
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The Israeli army reports that the body of hostage Ron Benjamin was found in Gaza and returned for burial
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli security forces have surrounded Al-Awda Hospital in Tal Al-Zaatar, northern Gaza. Intense airstrikes throughout Gaza.
10 rockets were fired from northern Gaza at Ashkelon
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US CENTCOM reported that the Houthis struck the Wind, a Panamanian-flagged, Greek-owned oil tanker, with one anti-ship ballistic missile in the Red Sea.
——— FORECAST ————————-
More OPSEC overnight regarding IAF operations. It is pretty clear though that Hamas is continuing to get hit hard in N Gaza and Rafah.
The tunnels from Rafah to Egypt will be getting substantial scrutiny over the next several days. If proven true, then Egypt has a lot to answer for regarding Hamas. Many are saying that the tunnel discovery and potential ramifications is one of the reasons why the US and Egypt were so adamantly opposed to invading the city.
Gantz’s threat should be taken seriously. It comes after meeting secretly with US authorities without Netanyahu’s knowledge or permission. The biden regime prefers the liberal Gantz over the more conservative Netanyahu. He and Netanyahu have been bitter opponents over the past several years and it is the biden regime’s objective to get Netanyahu out of the PM position.
I don’t expect tempo and operations to change in the midterm.
oopsie ping the above
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The big WHO meeting is still on tap and observers are continuing to monitor to see if the agreement’s final form gets watered down and to what extent.
Economy-
Following its joint statement with Russia about moving away from a reliance on Western countries, the Chinese government announced it sold at least $53.3 billion worth of U.S bonds.
Chinese has been increasing its offloading US Treasuries, handing them off to yield sensitive investors while recycling the money into gold.
Essentially, China has been funding the US deficit and the continued and seemingly accelerating sell off is going to hurt us in a bad way.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group left Yokosuka, Japan, on Thursday to carry out its last Indo-Pacific patrol as the Forward Deployed Naval Force–Japan (FDNF-J) aircraft carrier before returning to the United States later this year. Meanwhile, the Theodore Roosevelt CSG arrived in Singapore for a port visit, and a number of nonregional navies are also deployed in South East Asia on engagement and exercises.
Ronald Reagan is scheduled to turn over with USS George Washington (CVN-73) and then transit to Bremerton, Washington, later this year. USNI News previously reported that Reagan will conduct an overhaul in Washington state before its permanent homeport assignment. Washington is currently operating around South America, conducting a U.S. Naval Forces Southern Command/U.S. 4th Fleet’s Southern Seas 2024 deployment.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
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Trump NY trial on the path to a swift conclusion. How political will the jury be in its decision vs the evidence.
Smith’s classified document trial continues to come unglued as the judge spanked him again in a weekend ruling.
Biden / Harris Watch –
At the Morehouse college commencement over the weekend, biden spoke about defying the USSC’s rulings against tuition loan forgiveness -
“So I just did it anyway because rule of law is irrelevant”
he further called black graduates victims and claimed America hates them.
China –
Taiwan’s newly inaugurated president William Lai has called on China to stop threatening the island and accept the existence of its democracy.
He urged Beijing to replace confrontation with dialogue, shortly after being sworn in on Monday.
He also said Taiwan would never back down in the face of intimidation from China, which has long claimed the island as its own.
China responded by saying, “Taiwan independence is a dead end”.
“Regardless of the pretext or the banner under which it is pursued, the push for Taiwan independence is destined to fail,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at the daily press briefing on Monday afternoon.
Beijing dislikes Mr Lai and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which they see as pro-independence. And it has ramped up military incursions around Taiwan’s waters and airspace since his election win in January.
Such military incursions by China have become a routine affair in the past few years, triggering fears of conflict. In his speech, Mr Lai called this the “greatest strategic challenge to global peace and stability”.
But the 64-year-old also stuck closely to the formula used by his predecessor president Tsai Ing-wen, whose legacy will be defined by her cautious but steady handling of Beijing.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-69036373
OBSERVATION - Because of biden and what appears to be his imploding administration when it comes to foreign policy and the Nov elections, China will be further moved to be more aggressive in the western Pacific region as well as Taiwan.
Russia -
Russia rushed support to Iran to search for the crashed helicopter.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 70’s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down all 29 Shahed drones overnight
Heavy action on the ground overnight and during the weekend.
Ukrainian military control over half of Vovchansk, heavy clashes ongoing - regional administration. One of the hottest areas of the Kharkiv front.
At Siversk axis Ukrainian military had combat engagements with Russian troops at Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Rozdolivka and Ivano-Daryivka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Bilohorivka village of Luhansk region, part of an effort to drive toward Siversk.
Russian army conducted missile strike with Iskander missile at Izyum. Ukraine answered back with a missile strike reported in Luhansk.
Outlook —
The fight for Vovchansk on the Kharkiv front is the key battle for the sector. It is were Ukraine defenses initially stiffened. However, for Russia Vovchansk is just the first of a string of town/villages alone the projected axis of advance that will only serve to make any continued push turn into a meat grinder. Moscow reportedly has placed the capture of the town on its priority list for some reason.
Overall, Russia will continue to press its attacks in an effort to maintain the initiative on its fronts and to gain as much possible terrine before the resupplied Ukraine can stop and even take back some of the territory gained.
Ukraine’s deep war game currently appears to have enough of an asymmetrical aspect to it that Russia is unable to anticipate who’s getting hit next. Crimea is getting particularly hit hard, forcing Russia to pull some of its strategic forces, such as the Black Sea Fleet out, but is forced to keep some high level commands and air bases in place necessary to support the war efforts. The fact that Russia seemed incapable of even stopping simple drones over the past week bodes ill for air defenses in the peninsula.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
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Israel’s Gallant tells U.S. adviser Sullivan: “We are committed to broadening Rafah ground operation” - @Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has banned Israel’s intelligence and security chiefs from meeting with U.S. officials and lawmakers who’ve multiple times since the war in Gaza began
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Halil Al-Hiya, a senior Hxmas figure and a close associate of Hxmas leader Yahya Sinwar, has claimed that 70% of the hostages are now deceased. The claim has not been formally validated to the public.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting continues in and around the Jabalia camp in N Gaza
Heavy airstrikes and ground action continue in Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A drone heading toward Israel from Lebanon was shot down by fighter jets overnight according to the IAF.
.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
One person was killed and five others were injured in the Israeli attack that targeted two sites south of Homs, according to Syrian reports Israeli strike reported in Syria’s Homs province
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The International Criminal Court requests the issuance of an arrest warrant for three Hamas leaders, including Sinwar
he International Criminal Court requests an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for alleged war crimes
The International Criminal Court requests an arrest warrant for Israeli Defense Minister Galant for alleged war crimes
——— FORECAST ————————-
Pretty much the same as in previous reports. IDF will continue to lure Hamas into pockets and then smash them with raids and intense air strikes - a tactic that has worked quite well for them. Operations in Rafah continue to expand, thought there is a higher degree of OPSEC due to a lot of the operations focusing on locating the few remaining live hostages (if any) as well as Sinwar.
Hezbollah, “Islamic Resistance” and Iran are all mostly sideline sitters, though they keep poking the bear.
See Iran below on possibility that it may accuse Israel of the helicopter crash.
Iran –
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash in the country’s northwest on Sunday, Iranian state media agencies and government officials reported on Monday morning.
Raisi’s death was reported along with the deaths of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, among others. According to Mehr, all passengers on board were killed.
The other officials who were killed include Seyyed Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem, the Islamic Republic’s representative to the East Azerbaijan province, and Malek Rahmati, the province’s governor. The aircraft’s pilot and co-pilot were also killed.
The VFR only helicopter flew into dense fog/clouds and straight into a steep hillside.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-801726
Raisi, often referred to as the ‘Butcher of Iran,’ for his role in executing more than 5,000 prisoners in the late 80’s
Celebratory fireworks seen in Iran after Raisi’s death. Iranians are overjoyed at the death of the Butcher of Tehran.
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First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber would step into Ebrahim Raisi’s role as president if Raisi died, which the Islamic Republic confirmed on Monday morning.
Next, Mokhber, 69, would work with a special select staff and election authorities to hold new elections within 50 days.
It is far from clear that Mokhbar, as close as he is to Khamenei, will have Raisi’s standing. This could leave the question of Khamenei’s successor much more widely open than before, even as Raisi himself did not have a lock on the job.
One debate among analysts is whether another cleric like Khamenei will be the next supreme leader of the Islamic Republic or whether a senior official of the IRGC will try to form a new coalition of power brokers to take greater control from the cleric class.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-801828#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - Iran is in a state of confusion this morning. Regime facing change of leadership and the potential increase in anti-goat rebellion due to the death of Raisi.
There were very early statements that Israel/Mossad was behind the crash. I don’t consider it likely given the pea soup fog the helicopter flew into yesterday. What generated much of the speculation was the early reporting coming out of Israel of his death - way before Iran made any statement. If Mossad was involved, it was an incredible coincidence that they timed such an action with the near zero visibility conditions. So far, nothing from the Iranian govt charging Israel with the crash.
Iran will be internally fixated on power change, and less likely for the next month of so to really engage in international skulduggery.