Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The big WHO meeting is still on tap and observers are continuing to monitor to see if the agreement’s final form gets watered down and to what extent.
Economy-
Following its joint statement with Russia about moving away from a reliance on Western countries, the Chinese government announced it sold at least $53.3 billion worth of U.S bonds.
Chinese has been increasing its offloading US Treasuries, handing them off to yield sensitive investors while recycling the money into gold.
Essentially, China has been funding the US deficit and the continued and seemingly accelerating sell off is going to hurt us in a bad way.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group left Yokosuka, Japan, on Thursday to carry out its last Indo-Pacific patrol as the Forward Deployed Naval Force–Japan (FDNF-J) aircraft carrier before returning to the United States later this year. Meanwhile, the Theodore Roosevelt CSG arrived in Singapore for a port visit, and a number of nonregional navies are also deployed in South East Asia on engagement and exercises.
Ronald Reagan is scheduled to turn over with USS George Washington (CVN-73) and then transit to Bremerton, Washington, later this year. USNI News previously reported that Reagan will conduct an overhaul in Washington state before its permanent homeport assignment. Washington is currently operating around South America, conducting a U.S. Naval Forces Southern Command/U.S. 4th Fleet’s Southern Seas 2024 deployment.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Trump NY trial on the path to a swift conclusion. How political will the jury be in its decision vs the evidence.
Smith’s classified document trial continues to come unglued as the judge spanked him again in a weekend ruling.
Biden / Harris Watch –
At the Morehouse college commencement over the weekend, biden spoke about defying the USSC’s rulings against tuition loan forgiveness -
“So I just did it anyway because rule of law is irrelevant”
he further called black graduates victims and claimed America hates them.
China –
Taiwan’s newly inaugurated president William Lai has called on China to stop threatening the island and accept the existence of its democracy.
He urged Beijing to replace confrontation with dialogue, shortly after being sworn in on Monday.
He also said Taiwan would never back down in the face of intimidation from China, which has long claimed the island as its own.
China responded by saying, “Taiwan independence is a dead end”.
“Regardless of the pretext or the banner under which it is pursued, the push for Taiwan independence is destined to fail,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at the daily press briefing on Monday afternoon.
Beijing dislikes Mr Lai and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which they see as pro-independence. And it has ramped up military incursions around Taiwan’s waters and airspace since his election win in January.
Such military incursions by China have become a routine affair in the past few years, triggering fears of conflict. In his speech, Mr Lai called this the “greatest strategic challenge to global peace and stability”.
But the 64-year-old also stuck closely to the formula used by his predecessor president Tsai Ing-wen, whose legacy will be defined by her cautious but steady handling of Beijing.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-69036373
OBSERVATION - Because of biden and what appears to be his imploding administration when it comes to foreign policy and the Nov elections, China will be further moved to be more aggressive in the western Pacific region as well as Taiwan.
Russia -
Russia rushed support to Iran to search for the crashed helicopter.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 70’s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down all 29 Shahed drones overnight
Heavy action on the ground overnight and during the weekend.
Ukrainian military control over half of Vovchansk, heavy clashes ongoing - regional administration. One of the hottest areas of the Kharkiv front.
At Siversk axis Ukrainian military had combat engagements with Russian troops at Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Rozdolivka and Ivano-Daryivka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Bilohorivka village of Luhansk region, part of an effort to drive toward Siversk.
Russian army conducted missile strike with Iskander missile at Izyum. Ukraine answered back with a missile strike reported in Luhansk.
Outlook —
The fight for Vovchansk on the Kharkiv front is the key battle for the sector. It is were Ukraine defenses initially stiffened. However, for Russia Vovchansk is just the first of a string of town/villages alone the projected axis of advance that will only serve to make any continued push turn into a meat grinder. Moscow reportedly has placed the capture of the town on its priority list for some reason.
Overall, Russia will continue to press its attacks in an effort to maintain the initiative on its fronts and to gain as much possible terrine before the resupplied Ukraine can stop and even take back some of the territory gained.
Ukraine’s deep war game currently appears to have enough of an asymmetrical aspect to it that Russia is unable to anticipate who’s getting hit next. Crimea is getting particularly hit hard, forcing Russia to pull some of its strategic forces, such as the Black Sea Fleet out, but is forced to keep some high level commands and air bases in place necessary to support the war efforts. The fact that Russia seemed incapable of even stopping simple drones over the past week bodes ill for air defenses in the peninsula.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Israel’s Gallant tells U.S. adviser Sullivan: “We are committed to broadening Rafah ground operation” - @Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has banned Israel’s intelligence and security chiefs from meeting with U.S. officials and lawmakers who’ve multiple times since the war in Gaza began
***
Halil Al-Hiya, a senior Hxmas figure and a close associate of Hxmas leader Yahya Sinwar, has claimed that 70% of the hostages are now deceased. The claim has not been formally validated to the public.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting continues in and around the Jabalia camp in N Gaza
Heavy airstrikes and ground action continue in Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A drone heading toward Israel from Lebanon was shot down by fighter jets overnight according to the IAF.
.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
One person was killed and five others were injured in the Israeli attack that targeted two sites south of Homs, according to Syrian reports Israeli strike reported in Syria’s Homs province
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The International Criminal Court requests the issuance of an arrest warrant for three Hamas leaders, including Sinwar
he International Criminal Court requests an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for alleged war crimes
The International Criminal Court requests an arrest warrant for Israeli Defense Minister Galant for alleged war crimes
——— FORECAST ————————-
Pretty much the same as in previous reports. IDF will continue to lure Hamas into pockets and then smash them with raids and intense air strikes - a tactic that has worked quite well for them. Operations in Rafah continue to expand, thought there is a higher degree of OPSEC due to a lot of the operations focusing on locating the few remaining live hostages (if any) as well as Sinwar.
Hezbollah, “Islamic Resistance” and Iran are all mostly sideline sitters, though they keep poking the bear.
See Iran below on possibility that it may accuse Israel of the helicopter crash.
Iran –
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash in the country’s northwest on Sunday, Iranian state media agencies and government officials reported on Monday morning.
Raisi’s death was reported along with the deaths of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, among others. According to Mehr, all passengers on board were killed.
The other officials who were killed include Seyyed Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem, the Islamic Republic’s representative to the East Azerbaijan province, and Malek Rahmati, the province’s governor. The aircraft’s pilot and co-pilot were also killed.
The VFR only helicopter flew into dense fog/clouds and straight into a steep hillside.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-801726
Raisi, often referred to as the ‘Butcher of Iran,’ for his role in executing more than 5,000 prisoners in the late 80’s
Celebratory fireworks seen in Iran after Raisi’s death. Iranians are overjoyed at the death of the Butcher of Tehran.
***
First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber would step into Ebrahim Raisi’s role as president if Raisi died, which the Islamic Republic confirmed on Monday morning.
Next, Mokhber, 69, would work with a special select staff and election authorities to hold new elections within 50 days.
It is far from clear that Mokhbar, as close as he is to Khamenei, will have Raisi’s standing. This could leave the question of Khamenei’s successor much more widely open than before, even as Raisi himself did not have a lock on the job.
One debate among analysts is whether another cleric like Khamenei will be the next supreme leader of the Islamic Republic or whether a senior official of the IRGC will try to form a new coalition of power brokers to take greater control from the cleric class.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-801828#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - Iran is in a state of confusion this morning. Regime facing change of leadership and the potential increase in anti-goat rebellion due to the death of Raisi.
There were very early statements that Israel/Mossad was behind the crash. I don’t consider it likely given the pea soup fog the helicopter flew into yesterday. What generated much of the speculation was the early reporting coming out of Israel of his death - way before Iran made any statement. If Mossad was involved, it was an incredible coincidence that they timed such an action with the near zero visibility conditions. So far, nothing from the Iranian govt charging Israel with the crash.
Iran will be internally fixated on power change, and less likely for the next month of so to really engage in international skulduggery.
Nothing really jumping out overnight. Kind of a scary quiet.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
See “Illegal Immigration” below on the increasing threat from the large increase in illegals from China.
Economy-
Gold and silver prices keep pressing towards new highs.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Judge Merchan totally lost all composure at yesterday’s trial with defense witness Costello: shouting “GET OUT OF THE COURTROOM, NOW! “
There should be a mistrial declared - but that would show unfavorably on the judge who is clearly partisan.
Illegal Immigration –
According to a The New York Post report, migrants are rushing to cross border now in case Biden loses in November: ‘We don’t want Trump’
***
(FO) During a House Homeland Security Oversight Subcommittee hearing, Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC) said there was a 1,100% increase in Chinese nationals crossing the Southern border from 2022 to 2023. In the last seven months Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) reported 27,496 encounters with Chinese nationals at the border.
OBSERVATION- This is very concerning. China has infiltrated spies and potential terrorists into the country for year - many being sent as ‘students’ in our colleges and universities. It is common knowledge that corporate spying and technology thieft was the biggie at the time. Now times have changed and China senses weakness in the US combined with a far more aggressive posture, the likelihood of terrori and sabotage in increasing.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 70’s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 28 of 29 Shahed drones overnight, mostly targeting Kharkiv and Odesa.
Russian army launched S300 missiles at Vovchansk
Ukraine hit a petroleum facility in Voznesenovka village of Belgorod region with a drone strike
Combat on the ground continues to be intense in the Kharkiv, Ocheretyne and Chaziv Yar regions, with Russia only seeing slight ground gains at the high cost of men and equipment. The diversion of S300 missile attacks to Vovchansk indicates that Russia is having difficulty pushing the Kharkiv thrust any further. Rumors continue that Russia is putting more troops opposite of Sumy. This action drains forces available to reinforce the existing fight.
It still appears that the Russian Spring offensive is reaching its high water mark, though it may be several more weeks before Russia reverts to a defensive operation to retain territory gained.
By all reports, Russia has more troops in theater than when the war began. This places Ukraine at a population disadvantage which may also be the case for Russian successes this spring.
Outlook —
Combat will continue to grind at the major fronts. Unless something very dramatic happens, there is no threat of a major breakthrough by Russian forces. This threat is decreasing as they are increasingly moving their reserve forces into the current battle.
The only wild cards I see is in the realm of the ‘deep battle’ of drones and missiles.
Europe / NATO General –
The EU is planning to start formal accession talks for Moldova and Ukraine on June 25th.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- ICC issues arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gantz and Sinwar.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Israel PM Netanyahu says ICC arrest warrant request is “outrageous”, says it will not “stop us” in the fight against Hamas
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli forces besiege Al Awda Hospital in Jabalia Camp for the third day in a row, where Hamas forces are utilizing the facility for military purposes.
The Israeli military estimates that some 950,000 Palestinians have evacuated the Rafah area in the southern Gaza Strip, as troops operate in the eastern part of the city.
IDF continues to clear out Rafah and is supported by numerous air strikes.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli army announced the liquidation of a Hezbollah field commander in southern Lebanon.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Combat in Gaza to continue at a methodological pace. Rafah’s main efforts are expected to continue for another 4 - 6 weeks. Operations in the rest of Gaza to ebb and flow as IDF allows Hamas fighters to regroup in what they think are ‘safe’ area, only to hit them hard.
The biggest question is when IDF will find more hostages and Hamas leadership in Rafah. If they have escaped via tunnels into Egypt, things may get dicy.
Key note on the ICC warrants. It refers to the TERRITORY of Israel and the country of Palestine.
Iran –
Nation in a 5 day period of morning over the death of Raisi. Tens (hundreds) of thousands have turned out for the processional of his remains in Iran.