CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
After hundreds of anti-Israel protesters swarmed campus buildings and set up barricades at the University of California, Irvine, local law enforcement agencies responded and students were ordered to leave immediately on Wednesday.
The university said that it put out a call to local law enforcement and received immediate assistance from the Irvine Police Department and Orange County Sheriff’s Department.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-32/
OBSERVATION - There are some hold-outs from the campus seizure protests. Several are in the UC system, with Irvine and Berkeley among the forefront.
***
Folks at Forward Observer are reporting info that revolutionary anarchist groups are planning another economic blockade for the week of Independence Day (July 1st-4th). This would consist of closing key freeways and associated interchanges across the country.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
The Marine Corps prevented two people from breaking onto a Marine installation in Virginia on May 3 and turned them over to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
The two people drove up to the Fuller Road Gate of Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia, in a box truck and were stopped by military sentries, Capt. Michael Curtis, a spokesman for the base, said in a statement to Marine Corps Times on Tuesday.
“When asked, the operator of the truck informed the military police officers they worked for a company subcontracted by Amazon and were making a delivery to the U.S. Post Office located in the Town of Quantico,” Curtis said in the statement.
Because the two had no affiliation with the Marine base and no credentials to enter it, military police officers directed them to go to a holding area to undergo standard vetting procedures, according to Curtis. But the driver blew past the holding area and attempted to drive onto the base
Officers put up the vehicle denial barriers, blocking the truck from getting any farther onto the base, and detained the pair.
Both occupants of the truck were illegals, with one being a Jordanian national who had recently crossed the southern border into the United States was on the U.S. government’s terrorist watch list
OBSERVATION - There seems to be an uptick in the attempts by individuals to force their way into bases or other secure facilities lately. The dark side of this- particularly the Jordanian terror suspect - is that these could be probing attacks to test security and security responses.
***
According to abc news, Foreign terrorist organizations may seek to exploit “LGBTQIA+-related events and venues,” including events during 2024 Pride month in June, the FBI and DHS said.
‘Organizations like ISIS may seek to exploit increased gatherings associated with the upcoming June 2024 Pride Month,’ according to the announcement, which the agencies issued last week. The announcement added that the threat is ‘compounded’ by the ‘current heightened threat environment’ in the United States.
The threats could come online, in person or in the mail, according to the FBI and DHS.
https://notthebee.com/article/fbi-warns-isis-could-target-lgbtqia-events-during-pride-month/
OBSERVATION - The LGBT community will get a big shock is ISIS pulls something off. Currently the Gay/trans community has very vocally and physically supported the pro-hamas / pro-islam protests of the past 6 months or so.
Economy-
The regime is trying to spin the latest inflation numbers as a victory. But as I noted, the numbers have been doctored up by REMOVING components the economy, most notably foods and fuels. Just like they play numbers with the unemployment figures.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
(FO) Admiral Richard Cheeseman testified before Congress that the Navy would fall short of its 2024 recruiting goals by 6,200 sailors, saying that this was “significantly better than [the 6,700] we expected.” To accommodate the recruiting shortfall, the Navy is focused on retaining sailors in aviation, explosive ordnance disposal, surface warfare, submarine warfare, and naval special warfare.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Joe Biden and Donald Trump have agreed to hold two presidential TV debates in June and September, setting the stage for primetime political duels that could shake up the White House race.
CNN will host the first forum on 27 June in the key swing state of Georgia.
ABC will host the second one on 10 September.
The announcement came after President Biden, a Democrat, laid out his terms for debating his Republican predecessor ahead of November’s election.
CNN said there would be no audience at June’s debate in Atlanta, which will be moderated by hosts Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. It is scheduled unusually early for an election year.
Robert F Kennedy Jr, who is running as an independent, accused the two major candidates of colluding to exclude him. But later on Wednesday he said on X, formerly Twitter, that he would meet the requirements to qualify for the CNN debate.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-69017002
OBSERVATION - biden is laying out all the rules and set up. Some where in the back of my mind is Brer Trump saying “please don’t throw me in the briar patch” Both timing and format - skipping the quasi-official “presidential debate commission” of years past. Some think that biden’s demands are such that if trump opposes or wants changes, it would grant him reason to cancel altogether. Other analysis thinks that biden is trying to shore up his democrat frontrunner creds, particularly going into the convention. Risky tactic, as if he melts down in the June debate, it could really force the democrats into a replacement candidate on short notice.
Illegal Immigration –
General reports that illegals penetrating the border have increased in all sectors except Texas.
China –
The Chinese government is considering to order “local governments across the country buy millions of unsold homes to ‘save’ the property market” according to Bloomberg
OBSERVATION - Continued evidence of a very devastating economic conditions of the housing / construction sector. These homes are those in the dozens of empty cities constructed to move citizens from rural area to urban as a means to supply more workers for China’s manufacturing sector.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Putin and Xi Jinping signed an agreement on deepening bilateral strategic partnership. According to Putin, the Russian Federation and China have formed a portfolio of 80 large joint investment projects in various areas.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Intense fighting continues in the Kharkiv regions, though conditions appear to be stabilizing as Ukraine defenses stiffen. Fighting further south has also backed off from yesterday with Russian making very little gains if any in the Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne areas.
Explosions were reported in Sevastopol and Yevpatoria, source of which has not been reported. Russian ADA was reported active in Simferopol.
Reports that Ukraine fired ATACMS missiles at the Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea overnight, the second night in a row.
Unconfirmed reports that Russia is moving men and equipment to the border near Sumy.
Outlook —
With reporting relatively limited out of the combat zones overnight, it does appear that the Russian offensive is slowing way down. Analysts are looking closely at Russia’s actions opposite of Kharkiv and are beginning to suggest that Russia is attempting to establish a buffer zone. Over the past month, Russian separatists fighting for Ukraine have stages several incursions into Russian from these regions to the consternation of the Kremlin. A buffer zone would prevent that. Will have to see what develops.
On a very negative end, defensive construction materials that were supposed to have been emplaced by Ukraine have been captured by Russia, like dragon’s teeth barriers. Russian now has ready available materials to bolster its defensive lines IF the goal is to create a buffer zone.
Europe / NATO General –
The Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico was shot yesterday by Prominent leftist writer Juraq Cintula in an attempted assassination.
Cintula who was arrested following the attempted assassination, is a 71 year old Slovak poet supporter of the Progressive Slovakia party – was a founder of the so called “Movement against violence”.
Fico, was originally reportedly “in a life-threatening situation”, the operation went well - Deputy Prime Minister Tomáš Taraba told the BBC and is now expected to recover.
***
Geert Wilders has announced that the 5 month negotiation on forming a coalition government have finally been successful.
His PVV party will rule together with 3 other right-wing parties.
The “Hope, Courage and Pride” coalition platform presented today introduces strict measures on asylum seekers, scraps family reunification for refugees, and will reduce the number of non-EU students coming to the country.
“Deport people without a valid residence permit as much as possible, even forcibly,” the agreement says.
The Netherlands will take new measures to support its Jewish community and will move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
OBSERVATION - He is also supportive of the nation’s farmers who have been facing being thrown off family farms under draconian global warming mandates.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The inter webs were (and continue to be) filled with the false narrative of “Nakba day”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to hammer pockets of Hamas forces in N Gaza as well as Rafah in S Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Reports that an Israeli drone targeted a car on the Qana Road in southern Lebanon. No details as of when I’m writing this, but if current trend continues, it likely contained senior leader(s) of Hezbollah.
Large-scale Israeli airstrikes were reported in the Beqaa Valley, eastern Lebanon.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims responsibility for 2 cruise missiles targeting Nevatim Airbase in Israel. Missiles were reportedly intercepted and downed by IAF fighter jets.
——— FORECAST ————————-
I expect continued heavy fighting in N Gaza and in the south in Rafah.
I do not expect any significant change in the conflict across the Lebanese border.
The “Islamic Resistance” has melted way back to the point where in the case of the Houthi, attacks in the Red Sea have gone way down and companies may resume limited transit again.
Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024
Jordanian security services arrested several Jordanians of Palestinian descent and seized a weapons cache that Iranian-backed militias had smuggled from Syria into Jordan with the involvement of the apprehended Jordanians. The Brotherhood cell members reportedly intended to use the weapons to conduct “acts of sabotage” to destabilize Jordan.
OBSERVATION - The increased, aggressive support of elements in Jordan to subvert and potentially overthrow the govt by Iran is likely a response to Jordans assistance in the defeat of the drone and cruise missile attacks by Iran on Israel.
Venezuela -
Venezuela has moved “substantial quantities of [military] personnel and equipment to the border with Guyana amid its territorial dispute over the Essequibo region.
The update comes from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C., which this week released a report on the latest developments in the Venezuela-Guyana dispute.
OBSERVATION - Venezuela is moving methodically in an apparent build up for eventual invasion of Guyana. It has spent months preparing military bases and airfields near the border region, now the troops are coming in. At this pace, one can expect an eventual invasion by the end of summer. Likely seeking to cover the invasion with chaos from other global events diverting US and European attentions.
Black Swans -
As sun spot cluster 3664 rotates to the far side of the sun after a considerable number of X class flares that triggered a spectacular light show, a new cluster is just coming into view. Not yet having a number listed to it, it has already popped off a X2.9 flare.
We know one thing for sure - the corrupt press will not notice or write about the total unfairness of having two democrats ask the questions and none of them will remember that CNN gave debate questions to Hillary. And will probably do the same this time. So much for the New York Times 'seeing the light'...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
On Monday, a press conference was held to launch a Japanese national movement against WHO’s pandemic plans. Organizers also announced a protest against WHO’s plans to take place on 31 May, the second last day of the World Health Assembly meeting to adopt the amendments to the International Health Regulations (2005) and the Pandemic Treaty.
OBSERVATION - Japan was one of the first countries to sound out against the pandemic ‘treaty’. What was painted as smooth sailing for this attempt of seizing global power has hit some rough spots that may cause the WHO to water down some portions of the act. Rest assured that those portions will be weasel worded to permit the WHO to sneak back in the original goals /controls of the document.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
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Economic blockades being targeted for the week of Independence Day (July 1st-4th) by Antifa and affiliated leftists now according to Ngo on “X” will include attempts to close ports, as seen last year. This is in addition to the expected protests to close key freeways and interchanges.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
The Quantico incident now has two Jordanians here illegally, one on a terror watch list. More and more this looks like a probing effort to test security. BIG red flag is that they rolled up in a cargo truck - the type that could be used to haul a truck bomb onto the base for detonation.
Economy-
On Thursday the Dow reached 40,020 points before closing back below the 40K mark. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hit record highs this week as well.
OBSERVATION - There are economists that suggest the markets are a stack of cards, being held high by hopium and govt spending. They clearly don’t reflect the struggles of Joe and Jane American who are struggling to make ends meet, or the thousands daily losing their jobs due to the continued closures of hundreds (thousands) of businesses of all sizes nation wide. At this stage, a high Dow doesn’t mean that much to me other than when the crisis strikes, there will be a much larger drop in prices to be seen.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The GOP-led House Oversight Committee late Thursday night passed a resolution and report recommending US Attorney General Merrick Garland be held in contempt of Congress for refusing to hand over audio of Biden’s interview with Special Counsel Robert Hur.
US Attorney General Merrick Garland on Thursday told reporters that the Justice Department does not need to comply with a congressional subpoena because the DOJ is “a fundamental institution of our democracy.”
A visibly rattled Garland made the statements during a press conference earlier Thursday to reporters after Joe Biden asserted executive privilege over the audio of his interview with Special Counsel Robert Hur.
OBSERVATION - Nice resolution - but nothing will happen as Garland/DoJ will do nothing with it.
Phillipines –
A flotilla of fishing boats is making its way to the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. China is reportedly deploying coast guard and merchant marine vessels to monitor and intercept. Philippines warning it will send combat ships to protect the flotilla if necessary.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Putin says Russian army has no orders to capture Kharkiv, troops are creating “sanitary zone” near the border.
***
Russia expels Britain’s military attache from Moscow, Russian state media reported.
“The British military attache must leave Russia within a week,“ the statement said.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Very busy night for the deep battle. Ukrainian air defense shot down 20 of 20 Shahed drones overnight.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims fifty-one drones were intercepted over the territory of occupied Crimea, forty-four UAVs over the territory of the Krasnodar region, six drones over the Belgorod region and one over the Kursk region. Also, naval aviation and patrol boats of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed six unmanned boats in the Black Sea.
Reports on the ground state that Ukrainian’s drone swarm strike hit the Tuapse Oil Refinery in southern Russia, setting it on fire. It has capacity of 240,000 barrels/day, or about about 3.5% of Russia total refining capacity
Ukrainian aerial drones also hit Russia’s Novorossiysk naval facility. Over 35 explosions were reported in Novorosiysk overnight. Novorossiysk is home to most of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. A fuel storage tank facility was set on fire in the NW portion of the port of Novorossiysk. This attack lasted for nearly 2 hours. Local reports from Russian sources suggest that air defense absolutely not existent.
Follow-up on the Russian Air Force airframe losses at Belbek: 2 MiG-31s and 2 MiG-29s destroyed. The Fulcrums were most likely in stored status.
An Su-27/35 was claimed, but comparison with past imagery strongly suggests it was a MiG-29. The loss of the MiG-31 are critical as they are the launch platform for the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ‘hypersonic’ missile.
Commercial satellite imagery also indicates significant damage to the airport’s runway.
On the ground, analysts are indicating that Russia is barely able to make any progress and is now focusing its efforts on seizing Vovchansk as its reserves run low, endangering its more ambitious goals. Russia initially didn’t have enough forces on the border for a major operation, but now it’s forced to use up its reserves.
Very little ground gained by Russia at the Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar fronts.
Overall, Ukraine reports Russia suffering heavy losses of personnel and equipment across the easter front.
Outlook —
putin indicates that the Kharkiv operation is to set up a “sanitary zone” (read buffer zone). Taking more territory also gives him better leverage if there are any peace talks down the road.
Though the Kharkiv operation has seized more territory in a shorter period since the beginning of the war, evidence along all fronts suggest that the Russian offensive may soon be reaching a pause. Operational reserves have long been committed and heavy losses in men and tanks/armor are taking their toll. Ukraine’s dynamic defense has reformed and is repelling more and more attacks. If Russia is to pull off another offensive in the summer, it will need a large infusion of troops and equipment, both are slow to come to the front.
blinken basically gave a green light for Ukraine to use long range systems like ATACMS on Russian territory. This could throw a serious wrench on Russian operations which currently have their logistic and command sitting pretty soft under the current situation where Ukraine has been forbidden to touch them. And Russia will be slow to respond according to disperse these locations.
Ukraine’s large drone strikes overnight may well generate a Russian retaliatory strike within the next few days. Post strike analysis by the OSINT community is waiting for new commercial satellite images to be collected to judge the extent of the damage.
Under the current situation, I don’t expect any breakthroughs on the fronts. Just more hard and bloody fighting.
Belarus -
Belarus resistance elements are reporting that Russia is apparently about to move military equipment to belarus once again. This movement is believed to have three potential scenarios -
- Sumy/Chernihiv invasion
- Longer term training of new conscripts
- Exercises with the Belarus military
The latter two appear to be the most likely reason for the equipment movements. An offensive towards Sumy/Chernihiv will take months to build up for. Not totally out of the question given the Kharkiv offensive apparent goals is to create some kind of buffer zone, and a similar effort here to produce the same.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Netanyahu expressed his willingness to discuss handing over civil authority in Gaza to “local entities not affiliated with Hamas.”
US reportedly has completed work on the floating pier in N Gaza and is receiving cargo already.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Fierce fighting continues in Jabalia camp, northern Gaza Strip
IDF continues operations in central Rafah. Ground forces encountered and destroyed Hamas rocket launching positions with rockets ready to fire on Israel
A rocket fired from Gaza towards Sderot was successfully intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli and Lebanese sources are reporting that the IAF airstrikes overnight near Baalbek in the Beqaa Valley, appear to have targeted a network of Hezbollah manufacturing infrastructure used in the development of guided-munitions and one-way “suicide” drones.
IAF launched raids on the town of Najariya in the Sidon district, southern Lebanon.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi shot down its fourth US MQ-9 “Reaper” this week.
***
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia will target all ships heading to Israeli ports, even if they do not pass through the Red Sea, the head of the US-designated terrorist organization said on Thursday.
Abdulmalik al-Houthi declared in a televised speech that the Houthis will extend their attacks on Israel-bound ships beyond the Red Sea region to the Mediterranean Sea in what the Yemeni rebels have described as a campaign of solidarity with Palestinians during the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
“We will target any ship heading to Israel that comes within range of our weapons,” Abdulmalik al-Houthi said. “Everyone must stop transporting to the occupied Palestinian ports … It is in the interest of all companies to stop transporting to the Israeli enemy towards the Mediterranean Sea or in any direction.”
——— FORECAST ————————-
I expect Israel to continue its tactic of withdrawal from areas of Gaza and allowing Hamas to try to fill in those areas only to be hit by IDF raids. This tactic has been effective for Israel.
Rafah operation will continue, though I do not expect that Israel will find any hostages alive. By this stage, Hamas has kill most if not all of them.
Israel will continue to take apart Hezbollah leadership and facilities, leaving the terror group in reduced capability for Israel’s operations to remove them from S Lebanon later this summer/fall (once operations in Gaza have reached their objectives)