CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
(FO) During a meeting of the Department of Justice (DOJ) Election Threats Task Force, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said threats to election integrity are being “supercharged” by artificial intelligence (AI), which provides new avenues to “misinform and threaten” voters through deep fakes.
Monaco is likely setting the stage for prosecutions of AI-generated content on social media that the DOJ deems “misinformation or disinformation threat.” Renewed Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and FBI coordination serves two purposes for “election integrity”: federal agencies can coordinate social media censorship with platforms, and platforms can facilitate the prosecution of Americans who post AI-generated content the DOJ deems “misinforms or threatens” voters
OBSERVATION - “Misinformation” continues to be the buzz word of the swamp in its efforts to quench opposing views. However, the breakout of AI into society has created the potential - and in some cases already has - to corrupt the info sphere with near perfect fakes of all kinds. However, DoJ looks to it as an excuse to continue the ham handed censorship activities we’ve seen since 2020 (and to some degree earlier).
Economy-
The producer price index reading for April came in above estimates, putting a damper on expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting rates later this year as inflation weakens. The PPI gained 0.5% from April, higher than the 0.3% that economists polled by Dow Jones had anticipated.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that inflation data this year has been disappointing and will require patience from the central bank on monetary policy.
“We did not expect this to be a smooth road. But these [inflation readings] were higher than I think anybody expected,” he told a bankers’ group in Amsterdam. “So what that has told us is that we’ll need to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work.”
OBSERVATION - Wall Street has been looking forward to a rate decrease for the better part of a year now. That hopium is about run out now. This also will have significant impacts to biden’s economic policy arm waving as the election nears. Many thought that the Fed would drop rates just before the election to produce a burst of positive economic numbers to help him.
***
(FO) A group of House and Senate Democrats led by Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) urged President Biden to “take robust action” through Executive Actions to lower food prices. The lawmakers said Biden could use Executive Actions to fight anticompetitive practices including slotting fees, and investigate price gouging throughout the U.S. food supply chain.
OBSERVATION - Communism and controlled economy is what they want. Obviously they didn’t learn anything from Nixon’s disastrous wage and price controls. They are also looking for a scape goat with the elections and citizens putting most of the blame on democrats for the high cost of living.
***
It is being reported that the average auto loan rate on a new car has just hit *9.86%* APR. A 20+ year high.
***
Home prices have surged 47.1% since the start of 2020, easily outstripping the gains seen in recent decades.
That’s according to a recent analysis by ResiClub of the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which showed that house prices in the 1990s and 2010s grew a respective 30.1% and 44.7%.
On top of that, home price growth so far this decade is on the verge of surpassing all the growth seen in the 2000s. During that time period, housing prices skyrocketed 47.3%, including an 80% spike before the 2007 housing market crash.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-home-prices-have-surged-47-since-start-2020
OBSERVATION - I’ve said it time and again - the housing market is a key indicator of the health of our economy. These numbers suggest the potential for another housing market crash on top of sky high interest rates. This may sound good - crashing lowering costs - but it would remove houses from the market as owners would be underwater on their loans and would hold on to them rather than sell and move to another house. 2007 all over again - on steroids.
***
The administration is increasing tariffs on Chinese EVs from 25% to 100% by the end of this year, doubling tariffs on semiconductor chips imported from China to 50% by 2025, more than triple levies against Chinese EV batteries to 25% by next year and doubling tariffs on solar cells imported from China to 50% by the end of this year, according to the White House. Other products targeted include medical equipment like syringes and needles, and certain container cranes.
https://dailycaller.com/2024/05/14/biden-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles-critical-minerals/
OBSERVATION - Despite efforts to decouple, the US is still very reliant on China for most of these items. This will result in inflation as costs get transferred to consumers until other sources are developed - though those other sources will likely be high priced as well due to new demand.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The left is desperately trying to spin Cohen’ testimony into some sort of ‘win’ for the prosecution. The majority see the prosecution case evolving into an even greater dumpster fire.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The WH is scrambling to walk back its claims of offering Israel with super secret intel on the locations of Hamas leadership, stating that the US has no such intelligence to begin with.
OBSERVATION - Pretty clear that this was an overt effort to stop Israel from going forward with the Rafah operation and that the WH has been clearly caught with its pants down on this one.
***
biden continues to make the false claim that inflation was at 9% when he took office.
Illegal Immigration –
Congressman Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., said Tuesday that border crossings in the Tucson area have drastically increased over the past few years.
“When I met with Chief Maudlin who’s the sector chief in Tucson last Wednesday, he said ... they’re on pace to have more than 700,000 encounters through the Tucson sector alone in this fiscal year,” Biggs said on the “Just the News, No Noise” TV show.
“Just put that in perspective from 2018 to 2021, the average [was] about 60,000 per year,” he added.
More than 189,000 migrants arrived at the southern border just in the month of February.
OBSERVATION - The tsunami of illegals continues, though reporting has largely been suppressed and pushed to the background due to the Gaza and Ukraine wars along with other political news (usually spin against Trump trials).
China –
Largest Chinese violation of Taiwan’s air defense zone in 2024.
45 PLA aircraft were detected around the island—26 crossed the ADIZ & came as close as 41 nautical miles
OBSERVATION - I’m working to give this area more attention. Over the past few months, China has become more aggressive in its actions and claims in the S China Sea and towards Taiwan. With the increasing political chaos in the US and eyes directed towards the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, I am concerned that China may take even more aggressive actions to achieve its desired regional goals.
In addition to aircraft incursions, Chinese naval incursions and deployments around the island - likely for the purpose of setting up a potential blockade are concerning too.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Deputy Defence Ministers Tsalikov and Krivoruchko have resigned, backdated their resignation letters to before May 9th, despite signing the letters on May 13th.
Their subordinate Lt Gen Kuznetsov’s house was raided and he was taken out of his bed by force at around 5:30am on May 14.
Kuznetsov is accused of crimes directly linked to Deputy Defence Ministers Tsalikov and Ivanov. Ivanov has already been under arrest.
OBSERVATION - These are serious actions by putin in reshaping his regime. Having ‘won’ a fifth term, he is doing the classical communist purge of potentially unfaithful military leaders. The impact this kremlin shakeup will have on the military is not certain at this time, but will likely continue forward on shear mass of momentum for the near term.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia has maintained its full court press on Ukraine via not only its new assaults towards Kharkiv, but all along the eastern front of Ukraine.
In the Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces are solidifying defensive positions. Local Ukrainian commanders are reportedly taking the initiative in the vacuum of poor decisions by leaders at the national level. Russia forces reportedly utilizing the “meat attack” tactic in an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian positions.
Advances in the Ochertyne and Chasiv Yar areas have slowed way down, almost to a halt.
Ukraine has basically stopped trying to intercept Russian S-300 missile strikes on cities like Kharkiv, Dniper and Odesa. Russian has so many of these outdated systems that Ukraine has had to make the choice to used existing ADA assets against more serious threats.
Ukraine hit a major Russian airbase in Crimea overnight. Multiple strikes reported at the Belbek Air Base in Crimea by Ukraine using 300km ATACMS Missiles overnight. Reported result so far:
1x Mig-31 destroyed
3x Su-27 damaged
2x S-300/S-400 air defense systems destroyed
11x Russian soldiers killed
OSINT folks waiting for the next commercial satellite run for further analysis.
Outlook —
Situation is still tense for Ukraine on the Kharhiv front as Russian troops continue to pour into the captured area. Some good news is that Russian advances further south are slowing to potentially stalling as Ukraine defenses stiffen up there as well.
A lot of commentary about allowing Ukraine to use ATACAMS to strike Russian assembly area in Russia along the border. The US has so far been reluctant to allow Ukraine to directly attack Russian territory with these systems. This is one area where the US should allow a weapons ‘free’ situation, creating a situation that could really alter a lot of Russian rear area operations.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- UN accused of collaboration with Hamas in use of facilities and even marked vehicles in Gaza.
- IDF continues to press forward throughout all Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Hamas has been planning to establish a secret base in Turkey as well as other terror cells elsewhere in order to coordinate attacks against Israeli targets in neighboring countries, including members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) according to a document captured by the IDF in Gaza, The Times revealed in an exclusive report.
The secret document, titled “Founding a base in Turkey,’’ was discovered in the chief of staff to Yahya Sinwar, Hamza Abu Shanab’s home, The Times reported, citing the IDF. The document says Israel’s efforts to clamp down on the Gaza Strip over the past decade has “put Hamas on the defensive.”
Erdogan insists that Hamas has not been carrying out terrorist operations from Turkey despite meetings with Hamas leaders and allowing the Palestinian group to maintain offices in Istanbul
The Turkish government has expressed support for Hamas, calling it a “liberation group,” and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “has reached a level that would make Hitler jealous with his genocidal methods.”
***
Israel said its troops had identified fighters in the central logistics compound of the U.N. Palestinian relief agency UNRWA east of Rafah, demanding an explanation. Reuters verified the location of the footage released by the Israeli army but could not verify when it was filmed or the identity of the men.
“The U.N. has in part become a terrorist entity in itself because it cooperates with Hamas and covers for it,” Israel’s ambassador to the U.N. Gilad Erdan told Army Radio.
UNRWA has denied allegations of cooperating with Hamas.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-gaza-hamas/2024/05/15/id/1164778/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
A Hamas Command Facility which was located inside of a school operated by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) in Nuseirat, central Gaza, was bombed overnight by the IAF resulting in the death of 15 terror operatives including 10 members of Hamas’s Elite Naval Commando Unit “Nukhba” who participated in the October 7th massacre.
Hamas managed to launch a handful of rockets towards Sderot, handled by Iron Dome.
Continuing clashes between Israeli army and Hamas in the Jabalia camp in the northern Gaza Strip.
Artillery and air strikes continue to be intense in Central Gaza.
IDF continues to develop and execute search and destroy operation in Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Senior Hezbollah commander Hussein Mechi was killed in a targeted drone strike in Tyre, Lebanon.
***
Between 40 to 50 explosions were heard in the area of Mount Meron, cause of explosions is not reported.
——— FORECAST ————————-
IDF continues to successfully use its tactics to lure Hamas into what are essentially kill zones. More evidence of the UN collaboration with Hamas by allowing it to use its vehicles and facilities is coming out - not good for the daily drum of Hamas propaganda the UN spews on a daily basis.
The Rafah operation continues to grow, with quick Israeli deep penetrations into the town. The international voices decrying the operation appear to be falling off now that Israel has shown the resolve to execute the operation no matter what.
The status of an remaining hostages is still questionable. If Hamas no longer views them as supporting their cause it is highly likely that they’ll kill them directly, or lock them into locations that Israel may hit. I don’t hold out much hope for any other hostages to be freed alive.
Israel continues to successfully hunt down key Hezbollah leaders, nailing another one overnight. The cumulative effect of such leadership loss has to be hitting a painful level for Hezbollah. It should also cast a lot of fear in the other leaders, as this is but another in a recent string of hits on the individuals while driving on the road. This means Israel has some really good HUMINT going on providing timely and actionable targeting intel. This same intel probably has also marked the rocket launching and storage facilities throughout southern Lebanon for quick strikes as necessary.
Loss of key leadership may also be the reason for Hezbollah relatively minimal responses against Israel of late. It takes a while to reestablish chains of command and for new leaders to get a grasp of the ongoing war situation. Many, if not most of the leaders hit have been in their positions for years and years. How much ‘junior’ leadership training has been used to prepare others to take charge is not certain.
Misc of Note –
Multiple wildfires burning in British Columbia and Manitoba have forced thousands of people to evacuate and spread hazardous smoke into the northern United States, prompting air quality alerts.
OBSERVATION - Yes, fire season has already begun and for those Freepers who live in what many call urban-woodland interface areas should get a head of the power curve and review their preparations for wild fire responses. Check your potential evacuation routes for passability. Repack your GO bags, important papers, your communications plans and rally points. If you have livestock (horses, etc), make sure you have them covered as well.
Fires can give you essentially zero warning and lack of preparedness will kill - take for example the losses from the Paradise fire in Kalifornia a number of years ago. Enhance your ability to get early warning of fire activity and by all means - get out of dodge early rather than at the last minute.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
After hundreds of anti-Israel protesters swarmed campus buildings and set up barricades at the University of California, Irvine, local law enforcement agencies responded and students were ordered to leave immediately on Wednesday.
The university said that it put out a call to local law enforcement and received immediate assistance from the Irvine Police Department and Orange County Sheriff’s Department.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-32/
OBSERVATION - There are some hold-outs from the campus seizure protests. Several are in the UC system, with Irvine and Berkeley among the forefront.
***
Folks at Forward Observer are reporting info that revolutionary anarchist groups are planning another economic blockade for the week of Independence Day (July 1st-4th). This would consist of closing key freeways and associated interchanges across the country.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
The Marine Corps prevented two people from breaking onto a Marine installation in Virginia on May 3 and turned them over to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
The two people drove up to the Fuller Road Gate of Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia, in a box truck and were stopped by military sentries, Capt. Michael Curtis, a spokesman for the base, said in a statement to Marine Corps Times on Tuesday.
“When asked, the operator of the truck informed the military police officers they worked for a company subcontracted by Amazon and were making a delivery to the U.S. Post Office located in the Town of Quantico,” Curtis said in the statement.
Because the two had no affiliation with the Marine base and no credentials to enter it, military police officers directed them to go to a holding area to undergo standard vetting procedures, according to Curtis. But the driver blew past the holding area and attempted to drive onto the base
Officers put up the vehicle denial barriers, blocking the truck from getting any farther onto the base, and detained the pair.
Both occupants of the truck were illegals, with one being a Jordanian national who had recently crossed the southern border into the United States was on the U.S. government’s terrorist watch list
OBSERVATION - There seems to be an uptick in the attempts by individuals to force their way into bases or other secure facilities lately. The dark side of this- particularly the Jordanian terror suspect - is that these could be probing attacks to test security and security responses.
***
According to abc news, Foreign terrorist organizations may seek to exploit “LGBTQIA+-related events and venues,” including events during 2024 Pride month in June, the FBI and DHS said.
‘Organizations like ISIS may seek to exploit increased gatherings associated with the upcoming June 2024 Pride Month,’ according to the announcement, which the agencies issued last week. The announcement added that the threat is ‘compounded’ by the ‘current heightened threat environment’ in the United States.
The threats could come online, in person or in the mail, according to the FBI and DHS.
https://notthebee.com/article/fbi-warns-isis-could-target-lgbtqia-events-during-pride-month/
OBSERVATION - The LGBT community will get a big shock is ISIS pulls something off. Currently the Gay/trans community has very vocally and physically supported the pro-hamas / pro-islam protests of the past 6 months or so.
Economy-
The regime is trying to spin the latest inflation numbers as a victory. But as I noted, the numbers have been doctored up by REMOVING components the economy, most notably foods and fuels. Just like they play numbers with the unemployment figures.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
(FO) Admiral Richard Cheeseman testified before Congress that the Navy would fall short of its 2024 recruiting goals by 6,200 sailors, saying that this was “significantly better than [the 6,700] we expected.” To accommodate the recruiting shortfall, the Navy is focused on retaining sailors in aviation, explosive ordnance disposal, surface warfare, submarine warfare, and naval special warfare.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
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Joe Biden and Donald Trump have agreed to hold two presidential TV debates in June and September, setting the stage for primetime political duels that could shake up the White House race.
CNN will host the first forum on 27 June in the key swing state of Georgia.
ABC will host the second one on 10 September.
The announcement came after President Biden, a Democrat, laid out his terms for debating his Republican predecessor ahead of November’s election.
CNN said there would be no audience at June’s debate in Atlanta, which will be moderated by hosts Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. It is scheduled unusually early for an election year.
Robert F Kennedy Jr, who is running as an independent, accused the two major candidates of colluding to exclude him. But later on Wednesday he said on X, formerly Twitter, that he would meet the requirements to qualify for the CNN debate.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-69017002
OBSERVATION - biden is laying out all the rules and set up. Some where in the back of my mind is Brer Trump saying “please don’t throw me in the briar patch” Both timing and format - skipping the quasi-official “presidential debate commission” of years past. Some think that biden’s demands are such that if trump opposes or wants changes, it would grant him reason to cancel altogether. Other analysis thinks that biden is trying to shore up his democrat frontrunner creds, particularly going into the convention. Risky tactic, as if he melts down in the June debate, it could really force the democrats into a replacement candidate on short notice.
Illegal Immigration –
General reports that illegals penetrating the border have increased in all sectors except Texas.
China –
The Chinese government is considering to order “local governments across the country buy millions of unsold homes to ‘save’ the property market” according to Bloomberg
OBSERVATION - Continued evidence of a very devastating economic conditions of the housing / construction sector. These homes are those in the dozens of empty cities constructed to move citizens from rural area to urban as a means to supply more workers for China’s manufacturing sector.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Putin and Xi Jinping signed an agreement on deepening bilateral strategic partnership. According to Putin, the Russian Federation and China have formed a portfolio of 80 large joint investment projects in various areas.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Intense fighting continues in the Kharkiv regions, though conditions appear to be stabilizing as Ukraine defenses stiffen. Fighting further south has also backed off from yesterday with Russian making very little gains if any in the Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne areas.
Explosions were reported in Sevastopol and Yevpatoria, source of which has not been reported. Russian ADA was reported active in Simferopol.
Reports that Ukraine fired ATACMS missiles at the Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea overnight, the second night in a row.
Unconfirmed reports that Russia is moving men and equipment to the border near Sumy.
Outlook —
With reporting relatively limited out of the combat zones overnight, it does appear that the Russian offensive is slowing way down. Analysts are looking closely at Russia’s actions opposite of Kharkiv and are beginning to suggest that Russia is attempting to establish a buffer zone. Over the past month, Russian separatists fighting for Ukraine have stages several incursions into Russian from these regions to the consternation of the Kremlin. A buffer zone would prevent that. Will have to see what develops.
On a very negative end, defensive construction materials that were supposed to have been emplaced by Ukraine have been captured by Russia, like dragon’s teeth barriers. Russian now has ready available materials to bolster its defensive lines IF the goal is to create a buffer zone.
Europe / NATO General –
The Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico was shot yesterday by Prominent leftist writer Juraq Cintula in an attempted assassination.
Cintula who was arrested following the attempted assassination, is a 71 year old Slovak poet supporter of the Progressive Slovakia party – was a founder of the so called “Movement against violence”.
Fico, was originally reportedly “in a life-threatening situation”, the operation went well - Deputy Prime Minister Tomáš Taraba told the BBC and is now expected to recover.
***
Geert Wilders has announced that the 5 month negotiation on forming a coalition government have finally been successful.
His PVV party will rule together with 3 other right-wing parties.
The “Hope, Courage and Pride” coalition platform presented today introduces strict measures on asylum seekers, scraps family reunification for refugees, and will reduce the number of non-EU students coming to the country.
“Deport people without a valid residence permit as much as possible, even forcibly,” the agreement says.
The Netherlands will take new measures to support its Jewish community and will move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
OBSERVATION - He is also supportive of the nation’s farmers who have been facing being thrown off family farms under draconian global warming mandates.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The inter webs were (and continue to be) filled with the false narrative of “Nakba day”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to hammer pockets of Hamas forces in N Gaza as well as Rafah in S Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Reports that an Israeli drone targeted a car on the Qana Road in southern Lebanon. No details as of when I’m writing this, but if current trend continues, it likely contained senior leader(s) of Hezbollah.
Large-scale Israeli airstrikes were reported in the Beqaa Valley, eastern Lebanon.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims responsibility for 2 cruise missiles targeting Nevatim Airbase in Israel. Missiles were reportedly intercepted and downed by IAF fighter jets.
——— FORECAST ————————-
I expect continued heavy fighting in N Gaza and in the south in Rafah.
I do not expect any significant change in the conflict across the Lebanese border.
The “Islamic Resistance” has melted way back to the point where in the case of the Houthi, attacks in the Red Sea have gone way down and companies may resume limited transit again.
Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024
Jordanian security services arrested several Jordanians of Palestinian descent and seized a weapons cache that Iranian-backed militias had smuggled from Syria into Jordan with the involvement of the apprehended Jordanians. The Brotherhood cell members reportedly intended to use the weapons to conduct “acts of sabotage” to destabilize Jordan.
OBSERVATION - The increased, aggressive support of elements in Jordan to subvert and potentially overthrow the govt by Iran is likely a response to Jordans assistance in the defeat of the drone and cruise missile attacks by Iran on Israel.
Venezuela -
Venezuela has moved “substantial quantities of [military] personnel and equipment to the border with Guyana amid its territorial dispute over the Essequibo region.
The update comes from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C., which this week released a report on the latest developments in the Venezuela-Guyana dispute.
OBSERVATION - Venezuela is moving methodically in an apparent build up for eventual invasion of Guyana. It has spent months preparing military bases and airfields near the border region, now the troops are coming in. At this pace, one can expect an eventual invasion by the end of summer. Likely seeking to cover the invasion with chaos from other global events diverting US and European attentions.
Black Swans -
As sun spot cluster 3664 rotates to the far side of the sun after a considerable number of X class flares that triggered a spectacular light show, a new cluster is just coming into view. Not yet having a number listed to it, it has already popped off a X2.9 flare.