Threat Matrix 2024

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy

- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.

Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024

One person has been arrested for threatening FEMA workers.

This arrest has generated claims that there are of groups of “armed militias “ seeking fema employees in NC. These false reports even go on to claim FEMA has withdrawn workers from areas in fear of their safety.

Apart from the solo arrest, there is absolutely no backup for the other claims. That hasn’t stopped leftist commentators from running with the ‘story’.

OBSERVATION - The lack of fact checking by the infamous fact checkers shows the double standard of so called misinformation. The closer the nation comes to going sideways, the more and louder these kind of news ‘reports’ will be, increasing the chance of an actual exchange of fire between elements.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****

***

As early votes come in, there are reports that Trump appears to be over performing in the early balloting and democrat response is down. This would be a significant turn around from past elections. Don’t go to the bank on it yet, just keep it in mind.

***
One of my greater concerns/scenarios is the possibility that after a trump win, the regime will unleash all kinds of chaos in the last few days with the possible goal of instituting a martial law scenario where they could block trump’s swearing in or worse. Barring that, then the chaos would make a sizable chunk of Trumps term very unmanageable.

Even with a Harris win, the regime could likely take steps to launch retribution against trump supporters and flood the zone with EOs.

The potential goes way beyond removing the “W” keys from keyboards as the Clinton staff did.

Biden / Harris Watch –

It has been uncovered that Kamala Harris plagiarized her book, “Smart on Crime”, according to a new investigation. The current vice president even lifted material from Wikipedia. (eye roll)

This combined with the accusations (now potentially being formalized) that Walz sexually assaulted a teen as a high school teacher has put the campaign off to a rocky start this week.

***
An Axios report alleged Sunday that there is growing tension and miscommunication between the White House and the Harris campaign.

National political correspondent Alex Thompson reported “many senior Biden aides remain wounded by the president being pushed out of his re-election bid and are still adjusting to being in a supporting role on the campaign trail.”

“They’re too much in their feelings,” one Harris ally reportedly told Axios about the White House.

Thompson wrote the main issue with some Harris campaign members is that White House aides “aren’t sufficiently coordinating Biden’s messaging and schedule to align with what’s best for the vice president’s campaign.”

https://www.foxnews.com/media/tensions-allegedly-rise-between-biden-white-house-harris-campaign-too-much-feelings

OBSERVATION - Observers noted the most recent apparent flareup when biden complimented Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for handling recent hurricanes shortly after Harris criticized DeSantis for not taking her calls.

China –

Taiwan military reports 153 PLA aircraft, 14 PLAN vessels and 12 official ship operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 111 of the aircraft crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s western, southwestern and eastern ADIZ. We have monitored the situation and responded.

OBSERVATIONS - This is associated with the Chinese drill that essentially surrounded Taiwan.

North/South Korea –

Following reports of observed “Unusual Movement” along the North Korean-side of the border, South Korea reports that North Korea has blown up roads connecting the two countries on both the eastern and western sides.

North Korean media says Kim Jong Un held a meeting to discuss “a serious provocation violating sovereignty” and military response plans. This comes after an alleged “drone invasion” with anti-North Korean leaflets over Pyongyang.

Following the explosion, unconfirmed reports that, the South Korean military opened fire south of the demarcation line.

OBSERVATION - See Russia below on reports of a new treaty between NK and Russia. The probable support Kim is receiving from putin is likely enough for him to feel froggy to some extent. Also note that the actions on his part are more defensive than offensive. If he wants to invade, the same blown bridges and transportation corridors that would hinder a SK force, will hinder his forces as well.

Russia -

*****

Putin submitted to the State Duma a draft ratification of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Russia and North Korea. The document was signed on June 19, during his visit to Pyongyang.

***
Kremlin: We will not disclose whether there are clauses on mutual defense in the strategic partnership agreement with Iran. Also Kremlin’s spokesperson says that agreement with North Korea is very clear, when he was asked to clarify the agreement with North Korea on defense

OBSERVATION - Mutual defense components with Iran are potentially serious. See discussion under Israel below

Logistics –

Russian forces are reportedly not preparing for winter on the front and are trying to achieve their goals before the frost sets in, according to spokeswoman of the operational-tactical group “Luhansk” Anastasia Bobovnikova. While Ukrainian troops are actively preparing for winter conditions, Russians are relying on the dry weather in the Donetsk region to continue to press the attack.

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Russia is allegedly forming a battalion of North Korean citizens based on a Buryat brigade, LIGA reports. The battalion would be being created within the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade, with an estimated 3,000 personnel. It’s speculated that this unit may be deployed for combat missions near Sudzha in the Kursk region.

OBSERVATION - There have been reports from Ukraine of N Korean military being encountered in the Kursk region.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
0/7 S-300 ballistic missiles
0/2 Kh-59 cruise missiles
12/17 Shahed drones
4/17 Shahed drones due to electronic warfare.

Over 5 S-300 missiles hit Mykolaiv, resulting in the death of one woman and injuring 16 others. In one residential area, infrastructure, private homes, and cars were damaged

Russia continues to press the attack all along the Donbas Front. Some minor gains reported.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Reports of captured N Korean soldiers being encountered / captured.

Outlook —

Weather is beginning to change and Russia is attempting to take as much ground as possible before winter sets in. This effort may turn around and bite them on the butt as they are apparently doing so instead of making winter preparations. The past couple winters have been brutal for Russians, no winter gear, equipment issues, cold weather injuries, etc.

Russia has thrown together several combat units together. The most recent appears to be N Korean elements to fight in the Kursk region. While potentially freeing up Russian forces to shift back to the Donbas region, there are other difficulties too. Language is probably the most significant problem when coordination is needed. Second, there is a prejudice in the Russian army for - Russians. The NK unit may not get fire support it needs on its missions.

No doubt that Kim has sent good quality forces - for NK. He needs to show himself to be a good and desired partner of Russia. NK are acclimated to brutal winters, so they may be a benefit in the coming months. Also, as the more choice, they are physically and ideologically ‘pure’ and fit to fight versus the standard NK soldier struggling to raise enough food to keep from starving. Just how well they adapt to the war will be interesting to observe.

Brutal ground fighting to continue, but no major breakthroughs anticipated by either side.

Europe / NATO General –

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte: The alliance will continue its strong support for Kyiv and will not be afraid of Russian threats

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Finalized targeting plans reportedly have been approved, pending operational orders

- Rumors that Iranian targets are going to be military and not nuclear or oil.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Unconfirmed reports that PM Netanyahu, Defence Minister Gallant and other government ministers have reached an agreement on the intensity and timing of the Israeli attack on Iran, according to Kann News. Final approval from Israel’s security cabinet is required

Unconfirmed reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has informed the Biden administration that he is prepared to carry out a military strike targeting Iranian military facilities, rather than its oil or nuclear infrastructure, two officials with knowledge of the discussions told The Washington Post on Monday. This approach suggests a more restrained counterstrike aimed at preventing a broader war.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Intense operations in N Gaza continue as the IDF has surrounded Hamas et al forces and are closing in on them.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The IDF Air Force struck about 200 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and deep inside Lebanon over the past day.

Hezbollah has conducted at least 30 attacks into Israel on October 13.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

From the rumor side, it appears that Israel may have submitted to some of the US demands not to strike Iranian nuclear or oil facilities in the impending attack. However, that doesn’t mean that what ever Israel hits will not be hit hard, on the contrary, Iran is going to feel some hurt this time. I think the deployment of the THADDs is evidence that a large retaliatory strike from Iran is expected

So the odds have shifted to military and very likely political sites. Assuming a delayed Iranian response and subsequent Israeli response, the next cycle of attacks will likely be after the elections - and Israel would no longer face the leverage of influencing the election - and go after the nuclear and oil targets.

External rumors suggest that target set has been set, just final review and launch. I still think that it will happen by the end of the week.

There are rumors of a mutual support treaty component with Russia, meaning if Iran is attacked, Russia will attack the attacker. I don’t see this aspect becoming fully operational in this round of strikes/counter strikes, but could come into play in future rounds. Russian assets are focused on Ukraine. Russia maintains a military force in Syria, but should that element rise up to challenge Israel, it would not last long. The biggest immediate response could be interception of Israel missiles directed towards Iran, similar to what the US did against the previous Iranian attacks. Beyond a defensive operation, use of offensive weapons against Israel would potentially set off a much, much larger regional conflict I inspire of all its bravado, one that putin would want to avoid a this stage.

Hezbollah continues to get hammered in S Lebanon as Israel methodically pushes thru the first defensive lines. Mixed in with all the reports have been the discovery of just how large of an Oct 7 style attack Hezbollah was planning, far greater than was initially thought.

The UN continues to refuse to pull its ‘peace keeping’ forces out of harms way, thinking that it will deter Israel from attacks. I don’t think they thought this one out too well. Since they allowed Hezbollah to build bunkers next to their facilities, any fall out from attacks on those bunkers is on them.

Hezbollah is trying to quickly adapt to Israel’s Iron Dome system. It is virtually shutting off the rocket attacks across N Israel. To accomplish this, it appears that they are fast tracking the use of drones that can fly low enough to escape most of the detections by Israeli radar systems. This is the main weakness of Iron Dome - low flying drones. The profile of the one that hit the dining hall, killing 4, was deceptive enough to prevent ID as a hostile. Hezbollah resources in country are stressed by Israeli bombing so they may become heavily reliant on supply by Iran - and that supply line is very endangered.

In N Gaza, Israeli is choking off Hamas and allies, surrounding them and pummeling them into the dirt.

Iran –

Biden issued a warning to Iran, threatening that any assassination plot on former President Donald Trump would be considered an act of war. Biden’s warning follows after Trump’s campaign was reportedly briefed by U.S. intelligence regarding Iranian assassination threats.

https://www.oann.com/newsroom/biden-warns-iran-that-any-attempt-to-assassinate-trump-would-be-considered-an-act-of-war/

OBSERVATION - I seriously question the size of any US response, if one occurs at all.
***
Esmail Qaani appears after almost 2 weeks of absence, despite claims of his death, disappearance, & arrest
He was seen at Mehrabad airport, at the arrival ceremony for the body of martyred IRGC general Abbas Nilforoushan

OBSERVATION - The soap opera surrounding Qaani continues. He is confirmed now to be alive, the question still remains is he under detention as a suspected Israeli spy?

Globalism / Great Reset –

Since a coalition of the SPD socialists, Green environmentalists and FDP liberals took over the government in late 2021, the German economy has been declining and business confidence eroding.

Degrowth
Today Blackout News reports that the German socialist/green/liberal government has revised its economic outlook downward once again.

Recall that in 2021 the economy recovered strongly, with GDP growth reaching 2.7%. But at the end of the year, the socialists, greens and liberals took over, pledging to implement a green revolution. Almost immediately the economy slowed to a growth of 1.9% in 2022 and an anemic 0.1% in 2023.

According to Blackout News:
Germany’s economic situation has deteriorated drastically this year. Instead of the expected growth, Economics Minister Robert Habeck is now forecasting a decline in economic output. Originally a plus of 0.3 percent was forecast, now a minus of 0.2 percent is being calculated. These new figures reflect the serious situation of the German economy.”

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/10/15/green-new-deal-accelerates-germanys-economic-decline-growth-forecast-revised-downward/

OBSERVATION - Compliant with the WEF goals, Germany is leading the crash that will drag the EU into similar economic hardships, quite possibly triggering a domino effect globally as Germany for years has been a manufacturing power house.

***
Grow your own fruit and veg – and destroy the planet. Allotment produce, much prized by proud food-growing citizens the world over, has six times the ‘carbon’ footprint of conventional agriculture, according to a recent paper published by Nature. “Steps must be taken to ensure that urban agriculture supports, and does not undermine, urban decarbonisation efforts,” demand the authors.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/10/15/greens-declare-war-on-growing-your-own-greens/

OBSERVATION - Once again - control the food, you control the people.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024

A new Department of Defense directive 5240.01 issued September 27, 2024, just prior to the November presidential election allows the US military to use lethal force against American citizens in assisting police authorities in domestic disturbances.

Link to 5240.01 -
https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/DD/issuances/dodd/524001p.PDF?ver=UpTwJ66AyyBgvy7wFyTGbA==

Here are some Constitutional concerns:
- Challenging the Posse Comitatus Act
- Potential First Amendment Concerns
- Fourth Amendment Considerations
- Due Process Implications (Fifth Amendment)

Article listing the major other concerns
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/10/the-biden-regime-has-just-issued-a-very-suspicious-directive-permitting-military-intervention-in-us-domestic-affairs/

OBSERVATION - This is concerning. The verbiage given the excesses of the current regime are big enough to drive a truck thru. Second, the release of this document just before the elections. There are enough red flags from the left implying that they will willingly tip the cart to prevent trump from being sworn in. The damage to the military leadership beginning with 0bama has been intense and the loyalty of the top brass and commanders has shifted to the political left from constitutional neutralness. Even the enlisted ranks have been impacted as DEI/woke policies and discrimination against the core recruitment has eroded constitutional safeguards as well - evidenced by the military branches missing recruitment goals for the past several years.

Will the military attack civilians? They have been programmed over the past few years - most notably recent ‘terror’ briefings that equate pro-life advocates as terrorists (along with a plethora of other Pro-American/ Pro-constitution groups).

***
(FO) Stop Cop Nation issued a national call to action to end police brutality, starting with a national day of action scheduled for Tuesday, 22 October 2024.

Stop Cop Nation seeks to bring Black Lives Matter, the Palestine liberation movement, and other indigenous and liberation movements together to protest law enforcement militarization and capitalist oppression.

As of 10/15, endorsing organizations are located in:
- Birmingham, AL
- Sacramento, CA
- Oakland, CA
- Los Angeles, CA
- Colorado Springs, CO
- Washington, DC
- Atlanta, GA
- Fitchburg, MA
- Baltimore, MD
- Detroit, MI
- Port Huron, MI
- St. Louis, MO
- Durham, NC
- Albany, NY
- Nashville, TN
- Dallas, TX
- Richmond, VA

OBSERVATION - FO notes that previous protest days have resulted in some acts of vandalism. Low-level vandalism and property destruction is likely, and political violence is possible. Absent any unifying national level event (like Floyd), it is unlikely that these protests will gain much traction.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Rents across the United States increased last month, continuing to remain at highs well above the pre-pandemic period, according to real estate brokerage Redfin.

The median asking rent rose by 0.6 percent on an annual basis in September to $1,634, said an Oct. 10 press release by the firm. This is in line with the median rental trends over the past two years where prices have largely remained within a range of between $1,599 and $1,663. In 16 of the past 24 months, the rents were in an even narrower range of $1,630 and $1,650.

Along with wages rising by four percent yearly, rents are now “more affordable” compared to two years back, the brokerage stated. However, compared to the pre-pandemic period, rents continue to remain high. The September 2024 median rent is over 20 percent higher than September 2019, data from Redfin shows.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/home-rent-prices-rise-in-september-report-5740579?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport&src_src=partner&src_cmp=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION - Can’t see how they figure that a 4% wage increase a 20% rise in rent is ‘more affordable”, especially since other inflation has more than eaten up that 4%.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

US Navy carrier strike group led by USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) are in the North Sea.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***

In these final days of the 2024 election, Senate races are gaining renewed attention. Republicans have a golden opportunity to flip at least two seats to gain the majority in the upper chamber of Congress.

Montana and West Virginia are very favorable for Republican wins. However, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio are the surprise outliers. Should the winds of fortune turn in Republicans’ favor, it could turn a two-seat majority into a five-seat lock.

https://redstate.com/jenniferoo/2024/10/14/gop-only-needs-to-flip-two-senate-seats-to-win-the-majority-but-polling-shows-they-could-take-five-n2180539#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - These congressional races are just as important as the presidential race. Had McConnell pumped money to AZ, Lake’s name would also be on the list and as 6 seat flip.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Nypost. Kamala Harris urges black men to vote for her to legalize weed — despite convicting 1,900 as DA

Illegal Immigration –

Bill Clinton admitted that 22-year-old Georgia student Laken Riley, who was allegedly killed by an illegal alien, would still be alive had they been “properly vetted.”

The former president was speaking in the swing state for Kamala Harris. In reference to a previous ad by Donald Trump’s campaign, Clinton spoke about the killing of Laken Riley, who prosecutors believe was slain by Venezuelan migrant José Antonio Ibarra.
“If they’d all been properly vetted, [Riley’s death] probably wouldn’t have happened,” the former president admitted.

https://wokespy.com/bill-clinton-hints-laken-riley-would-still-be-alive-today-if-kamala-harris-had-done-her-job/

OBSERVATION - What can you say, harris not getting much help here.
Interesting note, in the same speech, Clinton said that the influx of illegals is necessary because Americans are not having enough children.
- What party has set as its foundation the death of millions upon millions in the womb? They have promoted the decline in births.

Again, classical tactic - create a problem, then supply the ‘solution’ that no one wants but will accept because of the problem.

Russia -

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Reports that some of the N Korean soldiers have tried to escape from Kursk and are being sought by Russian forces.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a combined missile and drone attack overnight.

Shot down:
0/1 S-300 ballistic missile
0/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
51/136 Shahed drones
Downed by electronic warfare:
60/136 Shahed drones

Combat work against another 20 Shahed drones is ongoing. 136 drones is a record. Targets appeared to be associated with the power grid.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

No apparent significant gains by Russia

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian attacks continue to claw out slim gains.

Outlook —

Russia’s push and Ukraine’s personnel and munitions difficulties (once again) and dwindling support from the west seem to be pushing some kind of ceasefire or end to the conflict. This is possibly being driven by the anticipation of a Trump victory.

Russia’s gambit with the NK forces now appears to be one where the Kremlin is attempting to stave off a greater conscription effort for a long as possible. It has the forces to eek out some terrain gains, but not enough to both clear the Kursk salient and capture the Donbas before winter. Russia amassed a force of about 600,000 for its offensive this year and has last the majority of those forces and equipment.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- IAF resumed targeting Hezbollah positions in S Beirut.

- US threatens Israel over Gaza aid.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Blinken/Austin sent “a private diplomatic communication that we did not intend to make public” to the Israeli govt threatening them with arms embargo (an operation echoed by other western sources).

The letter says Israel “must, starting now and within 30 days” act on a series of concrete measures to boost aid supplies (to Gaza), adding that failure may “have implications for US policy”. It cites US laws which can prohibit military assistance to countries that impede delivery of US humanitarian aid.
It says Israel must “surge all forms of humanitarian assistance throughout Gaza” before winter, including by enabling a minimum of 350 lorries a day to enter through all four major crossings and a new fifth crossing, as well as allowing people in al-Mawasi to move inland.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9wk0e8zey2o

OBSERVATION - This was intended to be kept secret in order to avoid pushback from pro-israeli elements in both parties. It is a continuation of the regime’s policy to prevent Israel from obtaining a military victory over Hamas (and Hezbollah) as well and continued eventual appeasement of Iran. This has been one of the most hostile administrations towards Israel. The US regime has spent a lot of time and effort to hamstring where it can Israel’s military options.

One area unspoken and noted below, is the pause in the bombing of the Hezbollah district in S Beirut, pressured by the US. In that period, Hezbollah was able to regroup enough to access supplies and actually increase rocket attacks toward Israel.

***
RELATED
(JPost) UNRWA is close to a possible breaking point for its operations in the Gaza Strip due to increasingly complicated conditions, said its head on Wednesday.
“I will not hide the fact that we might reach a point that we won’t be able anymore to operate,” UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini told journalists at a news conference in Berlin.
“We are very near to a possible breaking point. When will it be? I don’t know. But we are very near of that,” he said.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip, continues to be choked off by IDF forces as Hama et al attempted to regroup in that area.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

.Israeli army: We struck more than 140 targets in more than 50 locations in Lebanon, including weapons depots

The Israeli army has confirmed it conducted an airstrike in the Dahieh suburb targeting strategic weapons belonging to Hezbollah that were being stored in an underground storage facility. It was the first IAF strike in Beirut in nearly a week.

Israeli army: Hezbollah fired about 95 projectiles from Lebanon towards Israel on Tuesday in 17 attacks

Elements of a brigade assigned to the 210th IDF Division entered Lebanon. There are now elements of five IDF divisions in Lebanon.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

The spokesman for the Israeli army: air force intercepted an unmanned aircraft that made its way to the territory of the country from the east. The UAV was intercepted before crossing into the territory of the State of Israel.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Bad fruit of biden’s pressuring of Israel has hampered its operations against Hezbollah. A lull in the attacks on Hezbollah positions in Beirut resulted in them being able to rally to a degree and launch more rockets than in recent days. This probably also indicates that Hezbollah was able to get some comms back up to support this as well as the defense in the south.

However, with elements of 5 divisions entering into S Lebanon, Hezbollah is having difficulty stemming the push. Israel for its part is systematically dismantling the forward defensive line in preparation for a potential faster and deeper strike on weakened forces.

Now the release of a letter threatening Israel with the stoppage of arms and munitions if Israel doesn’t change relief efforts to Gaza. Blinken et al and the numbskulls in the State and DoD simply over look that much of the ‘supply’ crisis is Hamas caused - documented as stealing over 50% of relief aid and reselling it in black markets to continue to fund the war. Plus there is no concern over the American hostages being held by Hamas.

A degree of carrot - stick is also apparent. The deployment of a THAADS battery is the carrot, embargo is the stick.

Some may think it unfeeling, but the population in Gaza has overwhelmingly supported Hamas - something in the 80+% range, and they participated in the Oct 7 terror strike. They made their bed.

There is also a degree of silence regarding the impending attack on Iran. After a lot of releases and speculations, talk/rumors have died down. Now mid week, I still expect the strike by the weekend. Indicators/rumors still suggest primarily military and potentially govt targets and going away from nuclear/oil targets. It is still anticipated to be a substantial strike, one that will trigger another Iranian strike - likely after the elections.

Many observers are now speculating that after the election, the gloves will come fully off for Israel - especially if Trump is elected.

Iran –

Iran FM left Tehran for Amman, Jordon, as the first destination of his third regional tour. He will visit Egypt and Turkey afterwards. In Turkey, he will attend a meeting of 3+3 format

***
Several Iranian‌ lawmakers have in an official letter urged the country’s Supreme National Security Council to ask Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to reconsider the Islamic Republic’s current nuclear doctrine, which bans the development of atomic weapons, MP Ali-Asghar Nakhaei-Rad said. “The country’s current situation has changed, and we are now facing nuclear threats. Additionally, Shia jurisprudence is dynamic, and time and place influence the issuance of fatwas. The Supreme National Security Council should ask the Leader to approve a reconsideration of the nuclear policy,” he said, referring to a fatwa by Khamenei which prohibits the development and stockpiling of nuclear weapons.

OBSERVATION - Some think this ‘ban’ is providing plausible deniability for Iran’s nuclear weapon program. They wouldn’t have been pushing the enrichment of uranium otherwise (which violates the directive).

Misc of Note –

On October 17, join FEMA and millions of people worldwide in the annual ShakeOut earthquake drill. Designed to promote earthquake preparedness and safety, this international event takes place at 10:17 a.m. local time, allowing participants to practice the “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” technique.
The ShakeOut drill is not only about practicing earthquake safety but also serves as a reminder to check and update emergency plans and emergency supply kits.

OBSERVATION - I know, FEMA (PLUGH) but if you live in earthquake country (like I do), it is wise to evaluate your readiness to respond to an earthquake.

Black Swans -

A substantial increase in snow depth is forecast from Siberia to North America during the last two weeks of October, according to an analysis by Andrej Flis from Severe Weather Europe (SWE). This early buildup of snow cover could have significant implications for the upcoming winter across the northern hemisphere.
Snow accumulation in October can disrupt the stability of the polar vortex, a large-scale cyclone centered around the North Pole that influences weather patterns across the mid-latitudes. A destabilized polar vortex increases the likelihood of winter weather disruptions in regions such as the United States, Canada, and Europe. In particular, a larger snow cover in the northern hemisphere during autumn may lead to more erratic winter pressure systems, potentially resulting in harsher cold and increased snowfall.

Additionally, an unusual pressure pattern in the stratosphere, alongside a warming anomaly over the western half of the polar circle, hints at a weakened polar vortex heading into the winter months. Forecasts show that stratospheric wind speeds may decrease between December and January, further suggesting the possibility of a weaker polar vortex. This weakening could trigger a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, a phenomenon known to lead to drastic weather changes.

https://watchers.news/2024/10/15/early-snow-cover-patterns-point-to-polar-vortex-disruption-signaling-harsh-winter-ahead-across-north-america-and-europe/

OBSERVATION - Any kind of weather forecast is wrought with a lot of uncertainty. As the season develops we could see extremes of either dry and warm or cold and snow of a massive amount. Plan for the latter, worse case scenario.

In some ways things feel ‘quiet’. A hard concept given the ongoing turmoil of the election cycle and major conflicts around the globe. A pause, like the impending dropping of the other shoe. Can’t put my finger completely on it, but in part it may be due to the election campaign and what appears at this moment to be an impending trump win.

Folks, keep pour OODA cycle active - especially for stuff out side your normalcy bias.

Globalism / Great Reset –

From a video released from a recent Tedx talk. WEF “agenda contributor” Yuval Noah Harari said Human rights are “just a fictional story”.

“It may be a very nice story, it may be a very attractive story—we want to believe it—but it’s just a story. It’s not a reality.”

“And the same thing is also true in the political field. States and nations are also—like human rights, and like God, and like heaven—they too are just stories... Very powerful stories. Stories we might want to believe very much, but still they are just stories. You can’t really see the United States, you cannot touch it, you cannot smell it.”

Attendees reportedly clapped and cheered the statement.

OBSERVATION - Clearly, one of the most vile individuals in WEF’s hierarchy, Harari is continuing to state the clear goals of the WEF and the globalist power cabal.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024

The FBI just quietly updated their crime data for 2022. Turns out it was missing thousands of crimes!

The updated data shows there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults.

OBSERVATION - Even with this ‘revision’ the lack of reporting strongly suggests that these numbers should actually be even higher.

Key point is this is another reason why the population has less and less confidence in the govt - when they lie about these numbers as well as economic ones.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Space Force announced that the X-37B will execute a series of ‘novel maneuvers’ called aerobraking.
This will consist of a series of passes using the impulse of Earth’s atmosphere to modify its orbit around our planet while expending minimal fuel.
The maneuver should allow the X-37B to safely dispose of its service module components.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/usaf-space-force-deploy-secretive-spaceship-boeing-x/

OBSERVATION - The X-37 is already an old space frame, by modern standards. I don’t hold out much chance that more up to date vehicles will be created - Boeing is the prime contractor.

Maneuverability and the ability to change orbits is becoming an increasing important function for defensive purposes to potentially attack enemy satellites by surprise and get other equipment in place quickly and more stealthy

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***

In what some pundits called a desperate attempt to get her campaign on track again and regain momentum, harris stepped into the hated Fox studios for an interview with Bret Baier. She apparently was sold that this would be just another campaign stop and pitch, but things went south from the very first question and rapidly turned into a five alarm dumpster fire. Some have gone as far as saying this was the equivalent of biden at the first debate. It got so bad that according to Baier, multiple Kamala Harris handlers intervened off camera to cut off the interview.

She floundered under many specific questions, but many see the topic of illegal immigration being the one that hit Harris at the waterline, she could not even form the words to apologize for allowing criminals into the country that resulted in the senseless deaths of Laken Riley, Jocelyn Nungaray, and Rachel Morin.

Democrat damage control rapid sprung into place trying to spin the interview into a great, heroic triumph. However, I think with all the spin, it may cause many to actually review the interview, and it will not go well for harris’ numbers.

OBSERVATION - When democrat spinmeisters scramble to try to find some way to defend this interview - in part calling it an ‘ambush’ - you know they know it went bad. harris’ anger was on display last night and if the reports are true, she vented that anger on her staff afterwards. Will there be any shake-up in her staff, either by firing or quitting? Remains to be seen. Now, all eyes are on post interview polls to see just how much damage has occurred. Some say that if the damage is bad, she may be forced into more interviews - which even friendly ones will show her shortcomings and cause numbers to drop more. A death spiral. With less than three weeks to the election, a melt down of this magnitude often isn’t recoverable.

Bad news is the democrats may look to other means to stop the election of trump - false flag warning.

***
Caution regarding the massive early voting turnout. Historically, it has favored democrats. Some outlets suggest that trump in way over performing and silence from the democrat side on how well their side is doing turnout wise may indicate weakness. Again, don’t bet your bars at this stage. We have a long ways to go yet.

Illegal Immigration –

Venezuelan migrant gang ‘Tren de Aragua’ has now taken over at least four apartment complexes in San Antonio, Texas, according to reports.
This comes as corporate media dismisses their presence in Aurora, Colorado as a “handful” of incidents. (Daily mail)

OBSERVATION - This note also fit into CW2 category. The speed at which this gang is moving to control urban areas is frightening and law enforcement is losing ground to get it nipped in the bud. It will take greater federal resources working with the already overloaded police, to root these rats out - increasing the probability of violence that they are used to spreading in Venezuela.

North/South Korea –

North Korean state media said on Wednesday around 1.4 million young people had applied to join or return to the army this week, blaming Seoul for a provocative drone incursion that had brought the “tense situation to the brink of war.”

The fiery rhetoric comes after North Korea last week accused Seoul of sending drones over Pyongyang that scattered a “huge number” of anti-North leaflets. The North then blew up inter-Korean roads and rail lines on its side of the border on Tuesday, and warned that the South would “pay a dear price.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/north-korea-army-enlist/2024/10/16/id/1184245/

***
North Korea has also officially declared South Korea a “hostile state,” and enshrined it in the constitution. South Korea responded with readiness to counter any aggression, while still advocating for peaceful reunification

OBSERVATIONS - This continues to be sabre rattling on Kim’s part. There is no evidence of any impending attacks by NK.

Russia -

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Russia is actively preparing over 10,000 North Korean soldiers in the Far East, sources in Ukraine’s Defense Forces told RBC. Russia may deploy them to border areas near Ukraine or use them to rotate its own troops.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine reports on the missile and drone attack overnight that principally targeting the Kyiv region.

Shot down:
0/1 Kh-59 cruise missile
22/56 Shahed drones

Taken down by EW:
27/56 Shahed drones

Another 2 Shahed drones returned to Belarus.

As a result of the drone attack, an apartment building was damaged in the Desnyansky district of Kyiv, and there were no casualties.

Reported Russian casualties over the past few days have increased by as much as 15-20%. Evidence both of Russian pressing the attack and lack of successes.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Kursk: Poor weather is reportedly slowing down and complicating Russian and Ukrainian mechanized advances in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Minor Russian gains south of Pokrovsk.

Outlook —

One observation - if Russia is having to look to N Korea for cannon fodder, you know things are not going well. One analyst suggests that NK forces will be used to replace regional forces outside the Ukraine theater, permitting Russia to deploy those forces against Ukraine. There is no word if these NK forces are deploying here with their own equipment, but that may be a safe assumption - Russia is hard pressed to supply its own forces, let along a sizable foreign force.

Wet weather is beginning to get teeth and both sides will be further scrambling to gain tactical positions before much of the battlefield turns to goo. There were rumors that putin/kremlin wanted Pokrovsk and other areas of the Donbas captured by this time, but is it appealing that it isn’t going to happen.

Ukraine leadership has been scrambling to maintain western support. NATO forces have drained much of their reserves to Ukraine and are at a point of not having enough if their forces have to come into combat. Zelensky has been doing the circuit presenting his ‘victory’ plan to shore up support. It seems to have gained a little traction, but likely not as much as he has desired. If Trump wins, expect a lot more maneuvering on the Ukraine side for an acceptable cessation of hostilities. I don’t see Russia budging, as in spite of the disastrous campaign they have captured a fair amount of new territory and chances are zero that they will release any of it.

Continued hard fighting along the Donbas fronts. Drone wars will continue and a Russian missile blitz is still due.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Moldova stands to advance its path towards European integration in the upcoming October 2024 presidential election and referendum, but will likely remain a battleground state into the 2030s as EU membership negotiations continue.

The Kremlin is likely prepared to pursue several lines of effort in the future to derail Moldova’s EU path, such as · Attempting to influence and capture Moldovan state institutions;

· Exploiting the Kremlin’s military, economic, and political ties to the pro-Russian Moldovan regions of Transnistria and Gagauzia;

· Conducting reflexive control campaigns to shape EU member states’ decision-making regarding Moldova’s EU accession.

OBSERVATION - Russia’s hold on Transnistria is a card that is key to any acceptance into the EU. If Russia had been successful in its ‘land bridge’ to Transnistria, chances of EU membership would be nil by now. It will remain a thorn in the Moldovan goat’s side for the long term future.

Belarus -

Not posting a lot on this, but just about every day Belarus has Russian Shahed drones straying into its airspace. They have stopped scrambling their airfare to down them at this stage, likely due to Russian orders.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Nation celebrates Succoth (aka Feast of Tabernacles)

- B2 bombers hit hardened weapons storage facilities in Houthi controlled Yemen.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on October 15 that Israel would reject any ceasefire that would enable Hezbollah to reorganize and rearm. Netanyahu’s demand to prevent Hezbollah’s reorganization and rearmament are provisions that are in part enshrined in UN Resolution 1701.

U.S THAAD Air Defense systems are now on the ground in Israel and will be fully operational in short order.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

IAF continues to eradicate Hamas and affiliated elements in N Gaza.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Disputes over the cooperation of UN ‘peace keeping’ forces sprung to the front burner again overnight with video released overnight showing, Hezbollah rockets being launched just tens of meters from the UNIFIL Chinese battalion post. Already, it has been demonstrated that Hezbollah has used these UNIFIL facilities to place the underground bunkers and other attack sites from - all while under the watchful eyes of the UN, with their apparent blessing.

Some indicators that the Israeli ground operations are gaining speed as more and more border towns are being reported under Israeli control.

Hezbollah managed 18 or so rocket attacks into Israel overnight. Israel struck targets throughout Lebanon.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli artillery shelling on the outskirts of the town of Hadar in the Quneitra countryside, Syria

Israeli aircraft launched raids at dawn on Thursday targeting a site believed to be a weapons depot at the entrance to the city of Latakia, which led to fires and explosions at the targeted site. Human rights sources confirmed that the bombing targeted a Hezbollah ammunition depot.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The US carried out a round of strikes in Yemen against the Iran-backed Houthis on Wednesday evening, three US defense official said, targeting hardened weapons storage facilities. The strikes were carried out by B-2 bombers, one official said. NOTE - B-2s haven’t been used in combat since 2017.

SecDef Austin added: “This is a demonstration of the US’s global attack capabilities to operate anytime and anywhere. The US will not hesitate to take action to protect American assets, and to deter attacks against civilians and our partners in the region.’
NOTE - Many are viewing this as a warning to Iran.

Houthis Political Bureau: US aggressive raids will not deter Yemen from continuing its support and assistance to Gaza and Lebanon in the face of US-backed Israeli arrogance

***
Missile attack targeted the American base in the Conoco gas field in the northern countryside of Deir Ezzor, Syria

Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims it launched drone attack on Eilat

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The use of B2 to hit Houthi targets indicates that these ‘hardened’ sites are likely used for ballistic missile and drone storage. The B2 can carry the really big, nasty bunker buster bombs - an a lot of them.

Since the last Israeli strike against Houthi targets, the controlled region has suffered extensive fuel and electricity shortages. Houthi’s have managed to launch some ballistic missiles and drones, but their effectiveness is near zero and easy pickings for Israeli air defense. Quiet too have been the attacks on Red Sea shipping. Shippers are still wary of routing thru the region.

As note under Iran, the B2 are also a warning to Iran and some see that combined with the soon fully operational THAAD battery, that Israel may soon strike and Iran needs to watch its step.

A US strike against Iran would expose a kind of schizophrenia of US foreign policy. On one hand, the US has essentially been bending over backwards to allow Iran to bypass all kinds of sanctions and even to push this current war. OTOH, big stick threatening that suggests that we will hit it in coordination with Israel poses serous global issues - such as closure of the Straits of Hormuz and a dramatic escalation of the war.

I made a mistake not factoring in Succoth as a delay in the Israeli attack on Iran. Since Israel has waited since Oct 1 to respond, a few more days is not significant but provide more intel on targets and leadership locations for final decisions. So the forecast strike now looks more likely for next week.

A big wild card in this is the elections. Netanyahu appears to be factoring that into some of his planning and doesn’t want anything to happen that may enable harris to get elected. This means any pre-election attack either being tempered way down or even delayed into November.

As I’ve repeatedly said here, arabs may see delay as weakness and Israel showed some weakness in backing off attacking Hezbollah’s S Beirut strongholds.
Delay may also work in Israel’s favor if using the cover of concession to US demands can lull the Iranian leadership into a sense of false security and get sloppy.

Pushing things off to next week as a higher possibility of a strike. Otherwise, chances swing to a post election attack.

Iran –

It is estimated that Iran has made about $144 Billion in sanctioned oil sales, all because the biden regime has refused to enforce existing sanctions.

OBSERVATION - The US is supporting the largest terrorism supporter in the world and anyone with half an IQ point knows full well that Iran is funneling virtually all of this money into their war efforts and plans. The US is not preventing a massive regional conflict, but adding gasoline and black powder to the mix when it all kicks off.

Syria -

ISIS attack target posts of the Pro-Assad forces forces in the countryside of Deir_ez_Zor in eastern Syria, killing a soldier and injuring others

Misc of Note –

Helene recovery continues to be a FEMA cluster. Pretty well established that FEMA elements are not pushing very hard to get to cut off regions and that their bureaucracy is not helping victims. Still seeing first hand reports of FEMA confiscating privately donated relief supplies.

More and more this appears to be both an exercise in incompetence covering up for a deliberate stiffing of the American people.

Snows hit the Redoubt (better late than never) and final preparations for winter kick in. Continuing to take a deep look at the tea leaves to try to discern what path leftists will take in the coming weeks and months. It is very doubtful that the current status quo will remain much longer. None of paths look good for our country. Making sure my other preparations are in order.

Globalism / Great Reset –

In a case that has raised concerns about freedom of thought, religion and expression, Army veteran Adam Smith-Connor has been at the centre of a controversy for almost two years surrounding his silent prayers within a “buffer zone” for an abortion clinic in Bournemouth, England.

Yesterday he was found guilty. This is a legal turning point in the UK where prayerful thoughts in someone’s mind are considered a criminal offense.

In October 2022, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council introduced a Public Spaces Protection Order (“PSPO”) in the vicinity of the BPAS abortion clinic in Ophir Road, Bournemouth. The Order designated a “safe zone” around the clinic, within which it is prohibited to engage in protest related to abortion services and other specified activities.

In November 2022, Smith-Connor was spotted behind a tree on a green in a public space about 50 metres from the entrance of the BPAS abortion clinic. He was approached by Catherine Brookfield, a council officer, and accused of engaging in an act of disapproval of the work of the abortion clinic.

She asked him to move on as he was within the buffer zone and acts of “prayer as disapproval” were prohibited by the Council’s PSPO. He refused as he said he was praying for his deceased son and for the women, men, and children still being impacted by abortion today. He is still haunted by the decision he and his then-partner made to abort their unborn child 24 years ago.

“You are telling me that silent prayer is banned in this area? I’m praying in my mind and not approaching anyone. I’m entitled to pray silently for my dead son in a free country,” he said.

https://expose-news.com/2024/10/17/legal-turning-point-in-the-uk/

OBSERVATION - This reads almost like a plot out of some dystopian fiction movie. This is not the first instance of an individual being arrested and convicted of silent prayer. This reflects the no holds barred goal of globalists to censor even private thoughts of people. Coming soon to the US under the guise of the FACE act.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024

Is harris ‘priming’ democrats to resort to violence should trump win?

“depth, like she’s unsure what to say about policy, or how to explain her past positions, or why she hasn’t already done the things she’s promised to do if she’s elected given that she’s the current vice president.

But on one particular subject she’s been consistent and forceful throughout her campaign. She’s adamant that Donald Trump will destroy America if he’s reelected. And not “destroy” in the sense of enact bad policies, but that he’ll round people up with the military and put them in camps.

There’s a precedent for this that Democrats set four years ago. During the BLM riots in the summer of 2020, Harris herself was out in front egging on the rioters, infamously working to raise bail money for those who had been arrested. Of the protests, she said this in a June 2020 interview with Stephen Colbert: “Everyone beware. They’re not gonna stop before Election Day in November, and they’re not gonna stop after Election Day … They’re not gonna let up, and they should not.”

https://thefederalist.com/2024/10/17/kamala-harris-is-priming-democrats-for-violent-resistance-if-trump-wins/

OBSERVATION - Please read the link above, very thought provoking. I’ve noted many times that there is a potential that democrats will unleash violence like in 2020 should they lose power in DC. Now with some 12 million potential allies (illegals) ready to be thrown into the mix, the level of violence could be even more devastating. This would likely trigger those on the right to fight back and things really get ugly.

Democrat operatives like Antifa, transtifa, pro-hamas/hezbollah, pro-illegal etc groups at this stage haven’t been able to get traction on any specific topic, thus the year has been relatively riot free (apart from the minor temper tantrums at colleges this last spring). harris is trying to make trump the unifying element that these groups can rally against.

If elements of the right rise up and meet violence with violence, it could give the regime the justification to pull its trump (no pun intended) card - martial law.

As dangerous as these last couple weeks before the elections are, what lies on the other side are fraught with orders of magnitude more danger.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

U.S. industrial production fell more sharply than expected in September, signaling continuing weakness in the nation’s factory activity.

Data from the Federal Reserve, released on Oct. 17, showed a 0.3 percent decline in industrial output, following a downwardly revised 0.3 percent gain in August. Analysts had predicted a smaller drop of 0.2 percent for the month.

According to the Fed, the larger-than-expected decline was due in part to disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, along with the ongoing Boeing machinists’ strike. The aerospace sector, in particular, took a significant hit, with production of aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment falling by 8.3 percent, dragging down the overall index.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/manufacturing-weakness-deepens-with-bigger-than-expected-decline-in-industrial-output-5743110?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=TheLibertyDaily

OBSERVATION - I think the Fed is jumping too quickly on hurricane causes, particularly since this is September data and Helene hit Sept 26th and Milton later, and the full extent of the damage are yet to be fully realized. I do think that eventually, hurricane related damages will impact industrial production, but at this stage blaming it is a way to CYA over the poor data.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***
harris and walz skipped the Al Smith Charity Dinner held by the Archdiocese of New York last night. In doing so, may have further alienated democrat Catholic voters. She insulated herself by submitting a video address instead. Then she made matters worse by disrespecting Catholics further in the video, one that gathered no laughs.

Meanwhile Trump got the house laughing with many zingers.

North/South Korea –

The South Korean army has announced a state of combat readiness on Yeonpyeong Island, establishing 24-hour shelters.
This comes in response to unusual movements spotted at North Korean coastal artillery positions.
NOTE - This island has been hit in the past by NK artillery rounds, sparking off limited exchanges in artillery fire.

***
South Korea’s Yoon held a meeting with national security officials, considers North Korea’s dispatch of soldiers to Russia ‘grave security threat’ - Presidential office

Phillipines –

The Philippines and its allies, including Canada, Japan and the U.S., kicked off the maritime phase of Exercise Sama Sama 2024 in the South China Sea this week.

Participants for this year include BRP Jose Rizal (FF-150), BRP Waray (LC-288), BRP Nestor Reinoso (PC 380), HMCS Vancouver (FFH-331) and USS Howard (DDG-83). Naval aviation includes helicopters launched from the warships, land-based Philippine ScanEagle drones, a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon and a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force contingent composed of a P-1 Kawasaki maritime patrol aircraft and a ShinMaywa US-2 seaplane. Personnel from Australia, the United Kingdom and France are also present for the drills, although it’s unclear if these nations are observing the exercise or directly participating.

https://news.usni.org/2024/10/16/u-s-and-philippines-hold-naval-drills-with-allies-in-the-south-china-sea

Russia -

*****

There are reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jin Ping have just signed a “partnership pact.”

Russia agrees to support China’s goals in Taiwan. China agrees to support Russia’s goals in Ukraine.

Jointly they condemn the United States.

Russian Personnel Issues –-

North Korea is sending 12,000 troops, including special forces, to support Russia in its war against Ukraine. According to the South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS), North Korea has decided to send four brigades to Ukraine and has begun deployment.

***
The heavy losses Russia has suffered in Ukraine have had repercussions back home. Russia has lost over half a million men dead or disabled. These losses among military age men affect recruiting for other emergency services like the State Fire Service and the paramilitary Internal Troops Force that augments local police and guards for key installations countrywide. These two organizations have a peacetime strength of over 400,000 personnel. Russia also constantly needs new workers to replace retiring workers to keep its economy going. In peacetime the Russian military is supposed to have a million active duty troops and two million reservists. The reality is different, with fewer than 800,000 active duty troops and about a million reservists, almost all of whom are conscripts whose enlistments recently expired. Poor record keeping and bureaucratic bumbling account for the lower numbers.

Russia needs workers to keep its economy going and, before the war, the workforce consisted of about 70 million men and women. Invading Ukraine caused a sharp drop in available workers and after two years of war there was a labor shortage of nearly three million personnel.

The wartime casualties in Ukraine caused substantial personnel shortages inside Russia. By 2024 the military losses were so great that the non-military organizations and the workforce were suffering considerable shortages of personnel.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/2024101815210.aspx#google_vignette

OBSERVATIONS - Some analysts are indicating that Russia will be hitting a ‘wall’ enter by the end of this year, but definitely in 2025 when they are unable to keep up current levels of conscription combined with the inability to produce the weapons / munitions necessary to maintain the war at their current loss rate. putin following the Kyiv debacle shifted Russia into a war of attrition, believing that his forces could wear out Ukraine first before the realities of sanctions and insufficient man power come into harsh affect.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Another very big Shahed swarm. The Ukrainian Air Force reports out of 135 launched, 80 were shot down and 44 were taken down by electronic warfare. Another 2 flew back to Belarus. Areas hit were the Kyiv and other northern areas of Ukraine.

Reported Russia casualties have now grown by nearly 50 % in the last few days (1500+) , reflecting the increased push by Russia to gain as much ground before the mud season hits.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Russian forces made minor gains on the western margin of the salient.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Minor Russian gains south of Pokrovsk.

Outlook —

There is growing discussion and positioning over some sort of peace talks. Zelenzki is trying to shore up waining western support, Russia trying to press as hard as it can to gain terrain for ‘negotiations’. All within the context of the increasing probability of a trump second term and his outspoken promises to put an end to the conflict. The conflict may be entering end game.

As such, Russian attacks will continue at a high tempo to gain as much as possible before the mud season.

Belarus -

Lukashenko stated that Belarusians must be present at any negotiations to resolve the Ukraine war. “This is our issue too, and I don’t want decisions made without us that could affect our country,” he said, emphasizing Belarus’ role in the talks.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Sinwar is dead, no replacement has been identified

- Gaza search and destroy operations are growing.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Biden: I congratulated Netanyahu on killing Sinwar, it’s time to move on, I hope he ends the war soon

U.S Secretary of State Tony Blinken spoke with the Prime Minister of Qatar and discussed with him the elimination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and negotiations on the hostage deal, Qatari foreign ministry said

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Sinwar was killed after the building he was in collapsed on top of him, as well as shrapnel from two types of munitions

The incident began around 10 a.m. when a 450th Battalion soldier spotted a suspicious figure entering and exiting a building, alerting his commander, who ordered fire in response. The area was in Rafah, near the Philadelphi corridor along the border with Egypt

At 3 p.m., IDF forces, using a drone, identified three figures leaving the building, attempting to move from house to house. Two figures were covered with blankets, walking ahead of Sinwar to clear the way. The 450th Battalion commander opened fire on the group, causing them to scatter. Two terrorists fled into one building, and Sinwar into another.

Sinwar moved to the second floor of the building, and the IDF responded by firing a tank shell at it. As the IDF Infantry Commanders School (Bislach) unit began to sweep the building, two grenades were thrown at them—one exploded, the other did not. The troops pulled back and sent a drone, which detected an injured figure, face covered, sitting in a room and attempting to knock the drone out of the air with a stick.

Israeli forces fired another tank round at the building, partially collapsing it around Sinwar.

The next sweep of the building occurred at dawn, when troops discovered a body with recognizable features, leading to the identification process, which was completed in the evening.

Drone and post mortem photos of Sinwar indicate that the first attack tore off parts of his right forearm and hand, and drone video indicates he had fashioned a tourniquet out of a wire. He also lost at least one finger from his left hand. When they found his body, his brains were literally blown out and a gaping hole in his forehead.

The two terrorists who were killed with Sinwar are Mahmoud Hamdan and Hani Zarov, senior members of the Rafah Brigade of Hamas.

Sinwar was carrying fake passports and lots of cash money and an UNRWA employee’s ID as well as a map of tunnels

No hostages were immediately found in the vicinity.

It appears that Sinwar was trying to escape into Egypt, perhaps hoping one of the smuggling tunnels was still intact. It is believed from evidence that he hid in the same tunnel where Hamas murdered six hostages in Rafah.

***
The IDF expanded the raid on the northern Gaza Strip: the battle team of the Givati Brigade joined the expansion of the activities of Division 162 in the Jabalia region.

In the center of the Gaza Strip, forces of Division 252 attacked a military building from which terrorists were operating during the last day.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli army calls up additional brigade to Lebanon front.

Israeli army says it bombed 150 targets in Lebanon and Gaza yesterday

Hezbollah says its command has given orders to escalate the battle with Israel. Hezbollah “announces the transition to a new and escalating phase in the confrontation with the Israeli, which the events of the coming days will show”

———WEST BANK——————————-

Clashes increased overnight between palestinians and Israeli security forces.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Follow up on the B2 airstrike against the Houthis. Large “bunker buster” bombs —GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP) — which can only be carried by B-2 stealth bombers were used to destroy underground Houthi missile storage sites in Yemen, one official said. First time U.S. Air Force’s massive ordnance penetrator (MOP) has been used in combat.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Russia has warned Israel against striking Iranian nuclear facilities, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Thursday, according to state news agency TASS. “This would be a catastrophic development and a complete negation of all existing principles in the area of ensuring nuclear safety,” the deputy minister said.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The death of Sinwar came as a sudden shock. He was discovered essentially by accident by a training battalion. His final hours were likely very painful and desperate, mortally wounded and no aid/assistance - he died like a dog.

Instantly, thoughts came in regards to what happens to hostages being held by Hamas. Sinwar’s death is unlikely to meaningfully change Hamas’ negotiating position because Hamas aims to exploit the hostages it still holds to compel Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire that would enable Hamas to rebuild. This hasn’t stopped Israel so far, and is unlikely to in the future. Sinwar’s death likely will speed the murder of the remaining hostages.

Sinwar’s death has also opened a window of opportunity to have the general gaza population take and turn away from Hamas and towards Israel’s goals. This is a long shot, since Hamas commanded 90+% support of the population, that support with the removal of Hamas guns to their head could switch. When the realities that Sinwar was trying to run away from the fight and get into Egypt hit, minds may turn.

Leadership is uncertain. Israel has torn up the chain of command that remaining elements have difficulty coordinating and are increasingly operating on their own. Fact is over the past few weeks of Sinwar ‘black out’, Hamas as a whole was pretty well left to fend for themselves. As evident in N Gaza, lower level leaders are attempting to rally forces, but they are lacking the weapons and coordination / C2 necessary to mount any meaningful resistance. Top this off, Israel has committed more forces to Gaza even before the discover of Sinwar’s death, leaving Hama even more hard pressed.

Remaining Hamas leadership is likely to be in a jihadi mindset and fight to the death.

It is fairly evident that the biden regime did what it could to protect Sinwar. For example Jack Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Advisor, on March 19, 2024 stated: “Israel’s military operation in Rafah would be a mistake”
harris said similar. The regime went as far to slow the delivery of promised weapons as a punishment for Israel acting against Rafah.

All this is not lost to Hezbollah, having its leadership decimated, but having a deeper bench and more direct support from Iran. Israel is committing more forces into S Lebanon and this will stress Hezbollah even more.

However, Hezbollah is receiving even more pushback internally, as Sunni, Christian and Druze political elements are showing more backbone. See Lebanon below.

Finally, back around to Iran. Whether or not this will alter Israeli timing for their attack is unknown. A delay of 18 more days until after the election seems excessive, but so far Israel has acted with very substantial measures and could be taking extra time to make sure its plans are tight. A possible indicator of soon action comes from the reduction in targets attacked by air overnight, down to around 150 covering both Lebanon and Gaza - easily a 50% reduction. Those aircraft not being used may be getting prepared for the strike. Sinwar’s death also provides an opportunity for distraction of Iran’s interests.

Iran –

The agreement on a comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and Iran will be signed during a visit by Pezeshkian to Moscow, - the Iranian ambassador said

Lebanon -

The Lebanese government has asked the Foreign Minister to summon Iran’s Charge d’Affaires in Beirut over the remarks made by Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who had said Tehran is ready to negotiate with Paris on concrete measures to implement UNSCR 1701 in Lebanon.

PM Najib Mikati said “We are surprised by the Iranian Parliament Speaker’s statement that Tehran is ready to negotiate with France regarding the implementation of Resolution 1701”
Furrther, the Iranian remarks were “an unacceptable attempt to establish an illegal guardianship over Lebanon and a blatant interference in Lebanon’s affairs.”

OBSERVATION - This shows that as far as Lebanon is concerned, Iran views Hezbollah as the ruling power, not the current Lebanese govt and that Iran is the one to adjudicate the fulfillment of UN Resolution 1701. This is forcing Hezbollah to face a potential second front.

Globalism / Great Reset –

“During the covid-19 pandemic, falsehoods about masks, vaccines and ‘lockdowns’ spread as fast as the virus itself, and were almost as deadly,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at the World Health Summit on Sunday.

The World Health Summit (“WHS”) is an annual international conference and network that brings together “stakeholders” from politics, science, the private sector and civil society to set the agenda for a “healthier” future. Established in 2009, the summit is held in Berlin, Germany, and also offers online participation.
This year’s WHS was held between 13 and 15 October under the slogan “Building Trust for a Healthier World.”

“Media, celebrities, social media influencers and politicians have spread false claims that the Agreement will cede national sovereignty to WHO and give it the power to impose ‘lockdowns’ or vaccine mandates on countries.

“To be sure, governments and internet and social media companies have a responsibility to prevent the spread of harmful lies and promote access to accurate health information.

“WHO is working with a range of companies and researchers and partners to understand how misinformation and disinformation spreads, who is targeted, how they’re influenced, and what we can do to counter this problem.”

As Dr. Meryl Nass noted when highlighting Tedros’ speech: “The other side needs to kill free speech in order to take over, so the stakes are very high.”

https://expose-news.com/2024/10/18/tedros-the-terrorist-says/

OBSERVATION - See the pattern in recent days. From John Kerry saying we must eliminate the 1st Amendment, to hillary saying those spreading ‘misinformation’ (ie commentary contrary to the narrative) need to be punished- the desires of censorship are global.

Tedros’ speech is an act of misinformation in its self as the very examples that he cites have now been pretty well proven to be the correct and scientifically supported - conspiracy theorists wins. But that is not the desired narrative, thus the continued gaslighting.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024

Trump supporters in Pennsylvania are receiving threatening letters from the radical left.

“Your candidate is a felon, rapist, desecrator, an immoral flawed man. He is major reason violence us up, remember January 6th and Charlottesville?
By supporting him you are declaring your public support for a disregard of the law, civil discourse and unity. You are indicating your hatred for minorities, immigrants, foreigners, women, education, the rights of your fellow citizens, the rights of women to make decisions over their own healthcare needs. Oh and yes a hatred for Taylor Swift, who has contributed nothing but joy to the world. And you are entitled to all of this. However this is a reminder that your visible support comes with a price and at a cost. There will be consequences.

https://x.com/ImMeme0/status/1847283883621965920

OBSERVATION - These threats have been out there, but in this case are now overt. One interesting inclusion into the condemnation is the reference to Taylor Swift, which, along with some of the other phrasing, suggests a “Karen” as the source of the diatribe.

But make no mistake, regardless of who wins, there will be violence directed to republicans/trump supporters. The form and severity is yet to be seen.

***
As a reminder, Stop Cop Nation has issued a national call to action to end police brutality, starting with a national day of action scheduled for Tuesday, 22 October 2024. 17 cities are reportedly officially organizing for the event.

There are no law enforcement events that could trigger excessive violence, like Floyd, but previous events have resulting in some vandalism and other localized violence. Best be situationally alert and steer away from protest areas.

***
Elon Musk on the campaign trail for Trump is indicating that he believes that under harris the US will devolve into a “Mad Max” type of a scenario. Many think this is hyperbolic talk, but then consider the realities.

- Democrats/leftists have been very open about the application of violence if their power in DC is lost
- 12 million + illegals, many are single, military aged men, that could be expected to support the leftists.
- An economy that can have what few supports kicked out and cause a crash
- A US military that has been corrupted with the cancers of DEI, CRT and other woke agendas
- Total lack of a current president with the mental faculties to handle a crisis, but likely to start one.

I’ve noted over the past year especially the nasty level of these different crises. Democrats see the application of violence as a range, which can be dialed up or down. In reality, at this stage for democrats to initiate violence will not cause the right to cower, but be like the opening of pandora’s box - you won’t be able to get it under their control and it can explode in their faces.

Mad Max - I pray not, but it is not outside the realm of the possible under today’s conditions and has been seen in other regions of the world. Such a tearing apart of the nation is exactly what the globalists desire, taking a free nation out of dominance and allowing them to take over with little resistance from the US.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

Doctors in Canada and Great Britain are warning the public about new “replicon” self-amplifying Covid mRNA “vaccines” which have been dubbed the “third atomic bomb” by renowned experts in Japan.
They are warning that the “self-replicating RNA vaccines” will “trigger a worldwide disaster.”

The new “vaccines” have just been unleashed on the Japanese public after recently being approved by the nation’s regulators, despite having no safety or efficiency data.

The injections have been dubbed “replicon” vaccines because they are able to replicate inside the human body to produce more mRNA over time. However, evidence of harm caused by the mRNA vaccines continues to emerge.

https://slaynews.com/news/doctors-issue-red-alert-new-replicon-covid-vaccines/

OBSERVATION - More mRNA dealings and officials are collaborating with the companies to keep citizens in the dark.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***

Concerns being raised already in Georgia that Dominion voting machines are switching trump votes to harris.

North/South Korea –

A video posted on social media is claiming to show North Korean soldiers training in Russia and has been geolocated to the garrison of the 127th Motor Rifle Division in Sergeevka roughly 130km north of Vladivostok.

Recent threats and posturing by Kim against the south and the US continue to register a just that, posturing. Growing evidence that he is in the process of sending a significant amount of its strategic level SOF units to Russia suggests that his capabilities to launch an attack on the South are degraded and unlikely to occur.

Russia -

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Putin labeled Zelensky’s statement about the possibility of Ukraine creating nuclear weapons as another provocation, asserting that Russia will not allow this under any circumstances. He warned that any steps taken by Ukraine towards developing nuclear weapons will face an appropriate response, state agency RIA reports.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.

RUMINT –
RUMINT. A new Russian offensive could occur next week, says Petro Andriushchenko, advisor to the mayor of Mariupol. Preparations are underway at Russian military camps near Mariupol and Berdyansk. “They’re in an active preparation phase, gathering forces for an offensive that could start as early as next week.”

NOTE - I’m placing this here to keep alert to any other reports. This claim on its face seems very much ‘out there’. The OSINT and other analysts I follow do not see this on their radars, because Russia has committed so much resources and reserves to Kursk and the Donbas front that unless Ukraine has drawn down its defenses in this sector to dangerously low levels, Russia just can’t mount the force projection for a major offensive. See more under “Outlook”

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense shot down 4 of 6 Kh-59/69 missiles and 42 of about 98 Shahed-type strike drones overnight. Tracking of 46 more drones were lost, more updates to follow

Reported Russian losses continue to be 30+% higher than from earlier this summer, reflecting the increased push by Russia in the Donbas region.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

No reported changes in territory held

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russia continues to push hard on the southern flank of their salient.

Outlook —

More and more, Russian is relying on large drone attacks as their weapon of choice for their deep battle against Ukraine. The Russian AF, with its glide bombs, continues to operate unchallenged in the east as well. In spite of this, Russia is continuing to take heavy casualties and gaining very little ground.

That said, Ukraine seems to be softening a little bit. The nearly three years worth of this stage of the war (remember, its been ‘fighting’ since 2014 and before), its resources are being depleted as well.

RUMINT of a new offensive by all views is just that - rumors. Russia may be preparing to force the fight more in this southern sector, but it just doesn’t appear that they have the resources for anything more significant. Massing a force large enough takes time and can be observed. The only case I can see is that they are hoping for another Kharkiv push to gather more terrain from an unexpected direction. We’ll see next week if this rumor pans out.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- UNRWA has put a black mourning band on their logo.

- Israel requests second THAAD battery

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel has requested that the US send a second THAAD battery to protect the country in case of an Iranian reaction to the expected Israeli attack, according to Israel’s Channel 12

The US Army only has 7 THAAD batteries. 1 permanently in Guam & 1 in South Korea. Likely at least 1 will be down for maintenance at any given time, so that just leaves 3 left (possibly 2 as I think one might already be deployed in EUCOM).

Reports of a drone attack targeting the Israeli PM Netanyahu’s residence in Caesarea. No reports of casualties and it seems he and his wife were not there.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Reports that there are increasing surrenders/white flags in N Gaza areas.

Hamas has been utilizing hospitals as operational centers again, with Israel pressing attacks against three of them, prompting some international calls to stop.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IAF’s targeting has focused more on combat support in S Lebanon with still some more limited strikes in the Bekaa and Beirut areas.

Hezbollah has threatened a new level of fighting, but IDF continues to press northward in a methodological manner, forcing Hezbollah to continue to retreat.

Hezbollah is managing to get several hundred rockets fired into Israel every day. However, the barrages are largely ineffective nor coordinated.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

The Syrian army has reportedly confiscated two Hezbollah ammunition depots in the Damascus countryside. The authorities began restricting the movement of Hezbollah members, pro-Iranian groups and those close to them in the city of Homs and its surroundings for fear of Israeli raids. Unclear if Hezbollah has lost total access to the ammunition now being placed in Syrian army depots.

Israeli raid on illegal crossings in the border town of Al-Mashrafeh in the northern Bekaa

———WEST BANK——————————-

Clashes increased overnight between palestinians and Israeli security forces.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Israel continues to encounter drones entering from the Galilee region from Syria, originating from eastern portions of the country controlled by Iranian backed militias.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Aftershocks from Sinwar’s death continue to reverberate across the region. May be one of the main drivers of the growing mass surrenders in N Gaza. The lack of a successor being designated will hinder Hamas who will be forced to operate lacking a higher level of command. Hamas and affiliated other terror groups are managing to fight on a small scale level, but without support and coordination with higher level elements are doomed to be taken out by IDF.

Hezbollah on a tactical level is losing its forward defensive positions. Evidence of military stockpiles intended for months of fighting now belonging to Israel in numbers that have prompted Israel to incorporate them into their own stockpiles and establish special units to use them in the future. Replacement of these stockpiles from ammo dumps further north are questionable as Israel has hit so many of them.

Leadership of Hezbollah appears to now be under an IRGC commander - directly linking Iran to the organization. But then we pretty well already knew that.

Clock is ticking on the Israeli strike on Iran. Questions flying regarding the request for a second THAAD battery evidence that the planned attack will cross Iranian red lines and trigger a big response? Perhaps. It is also possible that Israel is striking while the iron is hot using what ever the justification for the first battery to apply to a second. No word of approval yet.

A second item continues to be the use of B2s in Yemen against Houthi targets and their use as a warning to Iran. Again, has Israel released enough information on their strike plans to have the B2s dusted off and ready to strike in support of Israel?

In any case, there region stands at the precipice of something even more serious.

Now you may also be hearing of the potential of an Iranian spoiling attack. Not out of the range of possibility, but definitely not the smartest thing to do after all of Irans bleats about not wanting to escalate matters.

In short,
- Hamas is continuing to collapse in Gaza
- Hezbollah is severely damaged and losing combat effectiveness
- Evidence that Israel’s impending strike is going to be a biggie and may trigger a much larger Iranian response.

Syria -

U.S. airstrikes in eastern Syria killed 35 ISIS members, including several leaders, disrupting the group’s operations

Venezuela -

Three more American citizens have been detained in Venezuela, in total 7 American citizens have been detained by maduro since the election in July.

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