CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
One person has been arrested for threatening FEMA workers.
This arrest has generated claims that there are of groups of “armed militias “ seeking fema employees in NC. These false reports even go on to claim FEMA has withdrawn workers from areas in fear of their safety.
Apart from the solo arrest, there is absolutely no backup for the other claims. That hasn’t stopped leftist commentators from running with the ‘story’.
OBSERVATION - The lack of fact checking by the infamous fact checkers shows the double standard of so called misinformation. The closer the nation comes to going sideways, the more and louder these kind of news ‘reports’ will be, increasing the chance of an actual exchange of fire between elements.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
As early votes come in, there are reports that Trump appears to be over performing in the early balloting and democrat response is down. This would be a significant turn around from past elections. Don’t go to the bank on it yet, just keep it in mind.
***
One of my greater concerns/scenarios is the possibility that after a trump win, the regime will unleash all kinds of chaos in the last few days with the possible goal of instituting a martial law scenario where they could block trump’s swearing in or worse. Barring that, then the chaos would make a sizable chunk of Trumps term very unmanageable.
Even with a Harris win, the regime could likely take steps to launch retribution against trump supporters and flood the zone with EOs.
The potential goes way beyond removing the “W” keys from keyboards as the Clinton staff did.
Biden / Harris Watch –
It has been uncovered that Kamala Harris plagiarized her book, “Smart on Crime”, according to a new investigation. The current vice president even lifted material from Wikipedia. (eye roll)
This combined with the accusations (now potentially being formalized) that Walz sexually assaulted a teen as a high school teacher has put the campaign off to a rocky start this week.
***
An Axios report alleged Sunday that there is growing tension and miscommunication between the White House and the Harris campaign.
National political correspondent Alex Thompson reported “many senior Biden aides remain wounded by the president being pushed out of his re-election bid and are still adjusting to being in a supporting role on the campaign trail.”
“They’re too much in their feelings,” one Harris ally reportedly told Axios about the White House.
Thompson wrote the main issue with some Harris campaign members is that White House aides “aren’t sufficiently coordinating Biden’s messaging and schedule to align with what’s best for the vice president’s campaign.”
OBSERVATION - Observers noted the most recent apparent flareup when biden complimented Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for handling recent hurricanes shortly after Harris criticized DeSantis for not taking her calls.
China –
Taiwan military reports 153 PLA aircraft, 14 PLAN vessels and 12 official ship operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 111 of the aircraft crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s western, southwestern and eastern ADIZ. We have monitored the situation and responded.
OBSERVATIONS - This is associated with the Chinese drill that essentially surrounded Taiwan.
North/South Korea –
Following reports of observed “Unusual Movement” along the North Korean-side of the border, South Korea reports that North Korea has blown up roads connecting the two countries on both the eastern and western sides.
North Korean media says Kim Jong Un held a meeting to discuss “a serious provocation violating sovereignty” and military response plans. This comes after an alleged “drone invasion” with anti-North Korean leaflets over Pyongyang.
Following the explosion, unconfirmed reports that, the South Korean military opened fire south of the demarcation line.
OBSERVATION - See Russia below on reports of a new treaty between NK and Russia. The probable support Kim is receiving from putin is likely enough for him to feel froggy to some extent. Also note that the actions on his part are more defensive than offensive. If he wants to invade, the same blown bridges and transportation corridors that would hinder a SK force, will hinder his forces as well.
Russia -
*****
Putin submitted to the State Duma a draft ratification of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Russia and North Korea. The document was signed on June 19, during his visit to Pyongyang.
***
Kremlin: We will not disclose whether there are clauses on mutual defense in the strategic partnership agreement with Iran. Also Kremlin’s spokesperson says that agreement with North Korea is very clear, when he was asked to clarify the agreement with North Korea on defense
OBSERVATION - Mutual defense components with Iran are potentially serious. See discussion under Israel below
Logistics –
Russian forces are reportedly not preparing for winter on the front and are trying to achieve their goals before the frost sets in, according to spokeswoman of the operational-tactical group “Luhansk” Anastasia Bobovnikova. While Ukrainian troops are actively preparing for winter conditions, Russians are relying on the dry weather in the Donetsk region to continue to press the attack.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia is allegedly forming a battalion of North Korean citizens based on a Buryat brigade, LIGA reports. The battalion would be being created within the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade, with an estimated 3,000 personnel. It’s speculated that this unit may be deployed for combat missions near Sudzha in the Kursk region.
OBSERVATION - There have been reports from Ukraine of N Korean military being encountered in the Kursk region.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
0/7 S-300 ballistic missiles
0/2 Kh-59 cruise missiles
12/17 Shahed drones
4/17 Shahed drones due to electronic warfare.
Over 5 S-300 missiles hit Mykolaiv, resulting in the death of one woman and injuring 16 others. In one residential area, infrastructure, private homes, and cars were damaged
Russia continues to press the attack all along the Donbas Front. Some minor gains reported.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Reports of captured N Korean soldiers being encountered / captured.
Outlook —
Weather is beginning to change and Russia is attempting to take as much ground as possible before winter sets in. This effort may turn around and bite them on the butt as they are apparently doing so instead of making winter preparations. The past couple winters have been brutal for Russians, no winter gear, equipment issues, cold weather injuries, etc.
Russia has thrown together several combat units together. The most recent appears to be N Korean elements to fight in the Kursk region. While potentially freeing up Russian forces to shift back to the Donbas region, there are other difficulties too. Language is probably the most significant problem when coordination is needed. Second, there is a prejudice in the Russian army for - Russians. The NK unit may not get fire support it needs on its missions.
No doubt that Kim has sent good quality forces - for NK. He needs to show himself to be a good and desired partner of Russia. NK are acclimated to brutal winters, so they may be a benefit in the coming months. Also, as the more choice, they are physically and ideologically ‘pure’ and fit to fight versus the standard NK soldier struggling to raise enough food to keep from starving. Just how well they adapt to the war will be interesting to observe.
Brutal ground fighting to continue, but no major breakthroughs anticipated by either side.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte: The alliance will continue its strong support for Kyiv and will not be afraid of Russian threats
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Finalized targeting plans reportedly have been approved, pending operational orders
- Rumors that Iranian targets are going to be military and not nuclear or oil.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Unconfirmed reports that PM Netanyahu, Defence Minister Gallant and other government ministers have reached an agreement on the intensity and timing of the Israeli attack on Iran, according to Kann News. Final approval from Israel’s security cabinet is required
Unconfirmed reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has informed the Biden administration that he is prepared to carry out a military strike targeting Iranian military facilities, rather than its oil or nuclear infrastructure, two officials with knowledge of the discussions told The Washington Post on Monday. This approach suggests a more restrained counterstrike aimed at preventing a broader war.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Intense operations in N Gaza continue as the IDF has surrounded Hamas et al forces and are closing in on them.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The IDF Air Force struck about 200 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and deep inside Lebanon over the past day.
Hezbollah has conducted at least 30 attacks into Israel on October 13.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
From the rumor side, it appears that Israel may have submitted to some of the US demands not to strike Iranian nuclear or oil facilities in the impending attack. However, that doesn’t mean that what ever Israel hits will not be hit hard, on the contrary, Iran is going to feel some hurt this time. I think the deployment of the THADDs is evidence that a large retaliatory strike from Iran is expected
So the odds have shifted to military and very likely political sites. Assuming a delayed Iranian response and subsequent Israeli response, the next cycle of attacks will likely be after the elections - and Israel would no longer face the leverage of influencing the election - and go after the nuclear and oil targets.
External rumors suggest that target set has been set, just final review and launch. I still think that it will happen by the end of the week.
There are rumors of a mutual support treaty component with Russia, meaning if Iran is attacked, Russia will attack the attacker. I don’t see this aspect becoming fully operational in this round of strikes/counter strikes, but could come into play in future rounds. Russian assets are focused on Ukraine. Russia maintains a military force in Syria, but should that element rise up to challenge Israel, it would not last long. The biggest immediate response could be interception of Israel missiles directed towards Iran, similar to what the US did against the previous Iranian attacks. Beyond a defensive operation, use of offensive weapons against Israel would potentially set off a much, much larger regional conflict I inspire of all its bravado, one that putin would want to avoid a this stage.
Hezbollah continues to get hammered in S Lebanon as Israel methodically pushes thru the first defensive lines. Mixed in with all the reports have been the discovery of just how large of an Oct 7 style attack Hezbollah was planning, far greater than was initially thought.
The UN continues to refuse to pull its ‘peace keeping’ forces out of harms way, thinking that it will deter Israel from attacks. I don’t think they thought this one out too well. Since they allowed Hezbollah to build bunkers next to their facilities, any fall out from attacks on those bunkers is on them.
Hezbollah is trying to quickly adapt to Israel’s Iron Dome system. It is virtually shutting off the rocket attacks across N Israel. To accomplish this, it appears that they are fast tracking the use of drones that can fly low enough to escape most of the detections by Israeli radar systems. This is the main weakness of Iron Dome - low flying drones. The profile of the one that hit the dining hall, killing 4, was deceptive enough to prevent ID as a hostile. Hezbollah resources in country are stressed by Israeli bombing so they may become heavily reliant on supply by Iran - and that supply line is very endangered.
In N Gaza, Israeli is choking off Hamas and allies, surrounding them and pummeling them into the dirt.
Iran –
Biden issued a warning to Iran, threatening that any assassination plot on former President Donald Trump would be considered an act of war. Biden’s warning follows after Trump’s campaign was reportedly briefed by U.S. intelligence regarding Iranian assassination threats.
OBSERVATION - I seriously question the size of any US response, if one occurs at all.
***
Esmail Qaani appears after almost 2 weeks of absence, despite claims of his death, disappearance, & arrest
He was seen at Mehrabad airport, at the arrival ceremony for the body of martyred IRGC general Abbas Nilforoushan
OBSERVATION - The soap opera surrounding Qaani continues. He is confirmed now to be alive, the question still remains is he under detention as a suspected Israeli spy?
Qaani? Hopefully pining for the Fjords! ;)
Thanks Godzilla
This arrest has generated claims that there are of groups of “armed militias “ seeking fema employees in NC. These false reports even go on to claim FEMA has withdrawn workers from areas in fear of their safety.
Apart from the solo arrest, there is absolutely no backup for the other claims. That hasn’t stopped leftist commentators from running with the ‘story’.
Amazing stupid members of press are so corrupt they' ll run with this story. Goes to show how important democrat 'news packets' are to stupid members of the press... losers.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Since a coalition of the SPD socialists, Green environmentalists and FDP liberals took over the government in late 2021, the German economy has been declining and business confidence eroding.
Degrowth
Today Blackout News reports that the German socialist/green/liberal government has revised its economic outlook downward once again.
Recall that in 2021 the economy recovered strongly, with GDP growth reaching 2.7%. But at the end of the year, the socialists, greens and liberals took over, pledging to implement a green revolution. Almost immediately the economy slowed to a growth of 1.9% in 2022 and an anemic 0.1% in 2023.
According to Blackout News:
Germany’s economic situation has deteriorated drastically this year. Instead of the expected growth, Economics Minister Robert Habeck is now forecasting a decline in economic output. Originally a plus of 0.3 percent was forecast, now a minus of 0.2 percent is being calculated. These new figures reflect the serious situation of the German economy.”
OBSERVATION - Compliant with the WEF goals, Germany is leading the crash that will drag the EU into similar economic hardships, quite possibly triggering a domino effect globally as Germany for years has been a manufacturing power house.
***
Grow your own fruit and veg – and destroy the planet. Allotment produce, much prized by proud food-growing citizens the world over, has six times the ‘carbon’ footprint of conventional agriculture, according to a recent paper published by Nature. “Steps must be taken to ensure that urban agriculture supports, and does not undermine, urban decarbonisation efforts,” demand the authors.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/10/15/greens-declare-war-on-growing-your-own-greens/
OBSERVATION - Once again - control the food, you control the people.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
A new Department of Defense directive 5240.01 issued September 27, 2024, just prior to the November presidential election allows the US military to use lethal force against American citizens in assisting police authorities in domestic disturbances.
Link to 5240.01 -
https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/DD/issuances/dodd/524001p.PDF?ver=UpTwJ66AyyBgvy7wFyTGbA==
Here are some Constitutional concerns:
- Challenging the Posse Comitatus Act
- Potential First Amendment Concerns
- Fourth Amendment Considerations
- Due Process Implications (Fifth Amendment)
Article listing the major other concerns
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/10/the-biden-regime-has-just-issued-a-very-suspicious-directive-permitting-military-intervention-in-us-domestic-affairs/
OBSERVATION - This is concerning. The verbiage given the excesses of the current regime are big enough to drive a truck thru. Second, the release of this document just before the elections. There are enough red flags from the left implying that they will willingly tip the cart to prevent trump from being sworn in. The damage to the military leadership beginning with 0bama has been intense and the loyalty of the top brass and commanders has shifted to the political left from constitutional neutralness. Even the enlisted ranks have been impacted as DEI/woke policies and discrimination against the core recruitment has eroded constitutional safeguards as well - evidenced by the military branches missing recruitment goals for the past several years.
Will the military attack civilians? They have been programmed over the past few years - most notably recent ‘terror’ briefings that equate pro-life advocates as terrorists (along with a plethora of other Pro-American/ Pro-constitution groups).
***
(FO) Stop Cop Nation issued a national call to action to end police brutality, starting with a national day of action scheduled for Tuesday, 22 October 2024.
Stop Cop Nation seeks to bring Black Lives Matter, the Palestine liberation movement, and other indigenous and liberation movements together to protest law enforcement militarization and capitalist oppression.
As of 10/15, endorsing organizations are located in:
- Birmingham, AL
- Sacramento, CA
- Oakland, CA
- Los Angeles, CA
- Colorado Springs, CO
- Washington, DC
- Atlanta, GA
- Fitchburg, MA
- Baltimore, MD
- Detroit, MI
- Port Huron, MI
- St. Louis, MO
- Durham, NC
- Albany, NY
- Nashville, TN
- Dallas, TX
- Richmond, VA
OBSERVATION - FO notes that previous protest days have resulted in some acts of vandalism. Low-level vandalism and property destruction is likely, and political violence is possible. Absent any unifying national level event (like Floyd), it is unlikely that these protests will gain much traction.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Rents across the United States increased last month, continuing to remain at highs well above the pre-pandemic period, according to real estate brokerage Redfin.
The median asking rent rose by 0.6 percent on an annual basis in September to $1,634, said an Oct. 10 press release by the firm. This is in line with the median rental trends over the past two years where prices have largely remained within a range of between $1,599 and $1,663. In 16 of the past 24 months, the rents were in an even narrower range of $1,630 and $1,650.
Along with wages rising by four percent yearly, rents are now “more affordable” compared to two years back, the brokerage stated. However, compared to the pre-pandemic period, rents continue to remain high. The September 2024 median rent is over 20 percent higher than September 2019, data from Redfin shows.
OBSERVATION - Can’t see how they figure that a 4% wage increase a 20% rise in rent is ‘more affordable”, especially since other inflation has more than eaten up that 4%.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US Navy carrier strike group led by USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) are in the North Sea.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
In these final days of the 2024 election, Senate races are gaining renewed attention. Republicans have a golden opportunity to flip at least two seats to gain the majority in the upper chamber of Congress.
Montana and West Virginia are very favorable for Republican wins. However, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio are the surprise outliers. Should the winds of fortune turn in Republicans’ favor, it could turn a two-seat majority into a five-seat lock.
OBSERVATION - These congressional races are just as important as the presidential race. Had McConnell pumped money to AZ, Lake’s name would also be on the list and as 6 seat flip.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Nypost. Kamala Harris urges black men to vote for her to legalize weed — despite convicting 1,900 as DA
Illegal Immigration –
Bill Clinton admitted that 22-year-old Georgia student Laken Riley, who was allegedly killed by an illegal alien, would still be alive had they been “properly vetted.”
The former president was speaking in the swing state for Kamala Harris. In reference to a previous ad by Donald Trump’s campaign, Clinton spoke about the killing of Laken Riley, who prosecutors believe was slain by Venezuelan migrant José Antonio Ibarra.
“If they’d all been properly vetted, [Riley’s death] probably wouldn’t have happened,” the former president admitted.
OBSERVATION - What can you say, harris not getting much help here.
Interesting note, in the same speech, Clinton said that the influx of illegals is necessary because Americans are not having enough children.
- What party has set as its foundation the death of millions upon millions in the womb? They have promoted the decline in births.
Again, classical tactic - create a problem, then supply the ‘solution’ that no one wants but will accept because of the problem.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Reports that some of the N Korean soldiers have tried to escape from Kursk and are being sought by Russian forces.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a combined missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
0/1 S-300 ballistic missile
0/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
51/136 Shahed drones
Downed by electronic warfare:
60/136 Shahed drones
Combat work against another 20 Shahed drones is ongoing. 136 drones is a record. Targets appeared to be associated with the power grid.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
No apparent significant gains by Russia
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian attacks continue to claw out slim gains.
Outlook —
Russia’s push and Ukraine’s personnel and munitions difficulties (once again) and dwindling support from the west seem to be pushing some kind of ceasefire or end to the conflict. This is possibly being driven by the anticipation of a Trump victory.
Russia’s gambit with the NK forces now appears to be one where the Kremlin is attempting to stave off a greater conscription effort for a long as possible. It has the forces to eek out some terrain gains, but not enough to both clear the Kursk salient and capture the Donbas before winter. Russia amassed a force of about 600,000 for its offensive this year and has last the majority of those forces and equipment.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IAF resumed targeting Hezbollah positions in S Beirut.
- US threatens Israel over Gaza aid.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Blinken/Austin sent “a private diplomatic communication that we did not intend to make public” to the Israeli govt threatening them with arms embargo (an operation echoed by other western sources).
The letter says Israel “must, starting now and within 30 days” act on a series of concrete measures to boost aid supplies (to Gaza), adding that failure may “have implications for US policy”. It cites US laws which can prohibit military assistance to countries that impede delivery of US humanitarian aid.
It says Israel must “surge all forms of humanitarian assistance throughout Gaza” before winter, including by enabling a minimum of 350 lorries a day to enter through all four major crossings and a new fifth crossing, as well as allowing people in al-Mawasi to move inland.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9wk0e8zey2o
OBSERVATION - This was intended to be kept secret in order to avoid pushback from pro-israeli elements in both parties. It is a continuation of the regime’s policy to prevent Israel from obtaining a military victory over Hamas (and Hezbollah) as well and continued eventual appeasement of Iran. This has been one of the most hostile administrations towards Israel. The US regime has spent a lot of time and effort to hamstring where it can Israel’s military options.
One area unspoken and noted below, is the pause in the bombing of the Hezbollah district in S Beirut, pressured by the US. In that period, Hezbollah was able to regroup enough to access supplies and actually increase rocket attacks toward Israel.
***
RELATED
(JPost) UNRWA is close to a possible breaking point for its operations in the Gaza Strip due to increasingly complicated conditions, said its head on Wednesday.
“I will not hide the fact that we might reach a point that we won’t be able anymore to operate,” UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini told journalists at a news conference in Berlin.
“We are very near to a possible breaking point. When will it be? I don’t know. But we are very near of that,” he said.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip, continues to be choked off by IDF forces as Hama et al attempted to regroup in that area.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
.Israeli army: We struck more than 140 targets in more than 50 locations in Lebanon, including weapons depots
The Israeli army has confirmed it conducted an airstrike in the Dahieh suburb targeting strategic weapons belonging to Hezbollah that were being stored in an underground storage facility. It was the first IAF strike in Beirut in nearly a week.
Israeli army: Hezbollah fired about 95 projectiles from Lebanon towards Israel on Tuesday in 17 attacks
Elements of a brigade assigned to the 210th IDF Division entered Lebanon. There are now elements of five IDF divisions in Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The spokesman for the Israeli army: air force intercepted an unmanned aircraft that made its way to the territory of the country from the east. The UAV was intercepted before crossing into the territory of the State of Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Bad fruit of biden’s pressuring of Israel has hampered its operations against Hezbollah. A lull in the attacks on Hezbollah positions in Beirut resulted in them being able to rally to a degree and launch more rockets than in recent days. This probably also indicates that Hezbollah was able to get some comms back up to support this as well as the defense in the south.
However, with elements of 5 divisions entering into S Lebanon, Hezbollah is having difficulty stemming the push. Israel for its part is systematically dismantling the forward defensive line in preparation for a potential faster and deeper strike on weakened forces.
Now the release of a letter threatening Israel with the stoppage of arms and munitions if Israel doesn’t change relief efforts to Gaza. Blinken et al and the numbskulls in the State and DoD simply over look that much of the ‘supply’ crisis is Hamas caused - documented as stealing over 50% of relief aid and reselling it in black markets to continue to fund the war. Plus there is no concern over the American hostages being held by Hamas.
A degree of carrot - stick is also apparent. The deployment of a THAADS battery is the carrot, embargo is the stick.
Some may think it unfeeling, but the population in Gaza has overwhelmingly supported Hamas - something in the 80+% range, and they participated in the Oct 7 terror strike. They made their bed.
There is also a degree of silence regarding the impending attack on Iran. After a lot of releases and speculations, talk/rumors have died down. Now mid week, I still expect the strike by the weekend. Indicators/rumors still suggest primarily military and potentially govt targets and going away from nuclear/oil targets. It is still anticipated to be a substantial strike, one that will trigger another Iranian strike - likely after the elections.
Many observers are now speculating that after the election, the gloves will come fully off for Israel - especially if Trump is elected.
Iran –
Iran FM left Tehran for Amman, Jordon, as the first destination of his third regional tour. He will visit Egypt and Turkey afterwards. In Turkey, he will attend a meeting of 3+3 format
***
Several Iranian lawmakers have in an official letter urged the country’s Supreme National Security Council to ask Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to reconsider the Islamic Republic’s current nuclear doctrine, which bans the development of atomic weapons, MP Ali-Asghar Nakhaei-Rad said. “The country’s current situation has changed, and we are now facing nuclear threats. Additionally, Shia jurisprudence is dynamic, and time and place influence the issuance of fatwas. The Supreme National Security Council should ask the Leader to approve a reconsideration of the nuclear policy,” he said, referring to a fatwa by Khamenei which prohibits the development and stockpiling of nuclear weapons.
OBSERVATION - Some think this ‘ban’ is providing plausible deniability for Iran’s nuclear weapon program. They wouldn’t have been pushing the enrichment of uranium otherwise (which violates the directive).
Misc of Note –
On October 17, join FEMA and millions of people worldwide in the annual ShakeOut earthquake drill. Designed to promote earthquake preparedness and safety, this international event takes place at 10:17 a.m. local time, allowing participants to practice the “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” technique.
The ShakeOut drill is not only about practicing earthquake safety but also serves as a reminder to check and update emergency plans and emergency supply kits.
OBSERVATION - I know, FEMA (PLUGH) but if you live in earthquake country (like I do), it is wise to evaluate your readiness to respond to an earthquake.
Black Swans -
A substantial increase in snow depth is forecast from Siberia to North America during the last two weeks of October, according to an analysis by Andrej Flis from Severe Weather Europe (SWE). This early buildup of snow cover could have significant implications for the upcoming winter across the northern hemisphere.
Snow accumulation in October can disrupt the stability of the polar vortex, a large-scale cyclone centered around the North Pole that influences weather patterns across the mid-latitudes. A destabilized polar vortex increases the likelihood of winter weather disruptions in regions such as the United States, Canada, and Europe. In particular, a larger snow cover in the northern hemisphere during autumn may lead to more erratic winter pressure systems, potentially resulting in harsher cold and increased snowfall.
Additionally, an unusual pressure pattern in the stratosphere, alongside a warming anomaly over the western half of the polar circle, hints at a weakened polar vortex heading into the winter months. Forecasts show that stratospheric wind speeds may decrease between December and January, further suggesting the possibility of a weaker polar vortex. This weakening could trigger a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, a phenomenon known to lead to drastic weather changes.
OBSERVATION - Any kind of weather forecast is wrought with a lot of uncertainty. As the season develops we could see extremes of either dry and warm or cold and snow of a massive amount. Plan for the latter, worse case scenario.