Globalism / Great Reset –
Since a coalition of the SPD socialists, Green environmentalists and FDP liberals took over the government in late 2021, the German economy has been declining and business confidence eroding.
Degrowth
Today Blackout News reports that the German socialist/green/liberal government has revised its economic outlook downward once again.
Recall that in 2021 the economy recovered strongly, with GDP growth reaching 2.7%. But at the end of the year, the socialists, greens and liberals took over, pledging to implement a green revolution. Almost immediately the economy slowed to a growth of 1.9% in 2022 and an anemic 0.1% in 2023.
According to Blackout News:
Germany’s economic situation has deteriorated drastically this year. Instead of the expected growth, Economics Minister Robert Habeck is now forecasting a decline in economic output. Originally a plus of 0.3 percent was forecast, now a minus of 0.2 percent is being calculated. These new figures reflect the serious situation of the German economy.”
OBSERVATION - Compliant with the WEF goals, Germany is leading the crash that will drag the EU into similar economic hardships, quite possibly triggering a domino effect globally as Germany for years has been a manufacturing power house.
***
Grow your own fruit and veg – and destroy the planet. Allotment produce, much prized by proud food-growing citizens the world over, has six times the ‘carbon’ footprint of conventional agriculture, according to a recent paper published by Nature. “Steps must be taken to ensure that urban agriculture supports, and does not undermine, urban decarbonisation efforts,” demand the authors.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/10/15/greens-declare-war-on-growing-your-own-greens/
OBSERVATION - Once again - control the food, you control the people.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
A new Department of Defense directive 5240.01 issued September 27, 2024, just prior to the November presidential election allows the US military to use lethal force against American citizens in assisting police authorities in domestic disturbances.
Link to 5240.01 -
https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/DD/issuances/dodd/524001p.PDF?ver=UpTwJ66AyyBgvy7wFyTGbA==
Here are some Constitutional concerns:
- Challenging the Posse Comitatus Act
- Potential First Amendment Concerns
- Fourth Amendment Considerations
- Due Process Implications (Fifth Amendment)
Article listing the major other concerns
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/10/the-biden-regime-has-just-issued-a-very-suspicious-directive-permitting-military-intervention-in-us-domestic-affairs/
OBSERVATION - This is concerning. The verbiage given the excesses of the current regime are big enough to drive a truck thru. Second, the release of this document just before the elections. There are enough red flags from the left implying that they will willingly tip the cart to prevent trump from being sworn in. The damage to the military leadership beginning with 0bama has been intense and the loyalty of the top brass and commanders has shifted to the political left from constitutional neutralness. Even the enlisted ranks have been impacted as DEI/woke policies and discrimination against the core recruitment has eroded constitutional safeguards as well - evidenced by the military branches missing recruitment goals for the past several years.
Will the military attack civilians? They have been programmed over the past few years - most notably recent ‘terror’ briefings that equate pro-life advocates as terrorists (along with a plethora of other Pro-American/ Pro-constitution groups).
***
(FO) Stop Cop Nation issued a national call to action to end police brutality, starting with a national day of action scheduled for Tuesday, 22 October 2024.
Stop Cop Nation seeks to bring Black Lives Matter, the Palestine liberation movement, and other indigenous and liberation movements together to protest law enforcement militarization and capitalist oppression.
As of 10/15, endorsing organizations are located in:
- Birmingham, AL
- Sacramento, CA
- Oakland, CA
- Los Angeles, CA
- Colorado Springs, CO
- Washington, DC
- Atlanta, GA
- Fitchburg, MA
- Baltimore, MD
- Detroit, MI
- Port Huron, MI
- St. Louis, MO
- Durham, NC
- Albany, NY
- Nashville, TN
- Dallas, TX
- Richmond, VA
OBSERVATION - FO notes that previous protest days have resulted in some acts of vandalism. Low-level vandalism and property destruction is likely, and political violence is possible. Absent any unifying national level event (like Floyd), it is unlikely that these protests will gain much traction.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Rents across the United States increased last month, continuing to remain at highs well above the pre-pandemic period, according to real estate brokerage Redfin.
The median asking rent rose by 0.6 percent on an annual basis in September to $1,634, said an Oct. 10 press release by the firm. This is in line with the median rental trends over the past two years where prices have largely remained within a range of between $1,599 and $1,663. In 16 of the past 24 months, the rents were in an even narrower range of $1,630 and $1,650.
Along with wages rising by four percent yearly, rents are now “more affordable” compared to two years back, the brokerage stated. However, compared to the pre-pandemic period, rents continue to remain high. The September 2024 median rent is over 20 percent higher than September 2019, data from Redfin shows.
OBSERVATION - Can’t see how they figure that a 4% wage increase a 20% rise in rent is ‘more affordable”, especially since other inflation has more than eaten up that 4%.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US Navy carrier strike group led by USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) are in the North Sea.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
In these final days of the 2024 election, Senate races are gaining renewed attention. Republicans have a golden opportunity to flip at least two seats to gain the majority in the upper chamber of Congress.
Montana and West Virginia are very favorable for Republican wins. However, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio are the surprise outliers. Should the winds of fortune turn in Republicans’ favor, it could turn a two-seat majority into a five-seat lock.
OBSERVATION - These congressional races are just as important as the presidential race. Had McConnell pumped money to AZ, Lake’s name would also be on the list and as 6 seat flip.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Nypost. Kamala Harris urges black men to vote for her to legalize weed — despite convicting 1,900 as DA
Illegal Immigration –
Bill Clinton admitted that 22-year-old Georgia student Laken Riley, who was allegedly killed by an illegal alien, would still be alive had they been “properly vetted.”
The former president was speaking in the swing state for Kamala Harris. In reference to a previous ad by Donald Trump’s campaign, Clinton spoke about the killing of Laken Riley, who prosecutors believe was slain by Venezuelan migrant José Antonio Ibarra.
“If they’d all been properly vetted, [Riley’s death] probably wouldn’t have happened,” the former president admitted.
OBSERVATION - What can you say, harris not getting much help here.
Interesting note, in the same speech, Clinton said that the influx of illegals is necessary because Americans are not having enough children.
- What party has set as its foundation the death of millions upon millions in the womb? They have promoted the decline in births.
Again, classical tactic - create a problem, then supply the ‘solution’ that no one wants but will accept because of the problem.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Reports that some of the N Korean soldiers have tried to escape from Kursk and are being sought by Russian forces.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a combined missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
0/1 S-300 ballistic missile
0/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
51/136 Shahed drones
Downed by electronic warfare:
60/136 Shahed drones
Combat work against another 20 Shahed drones is ongoing. 136 drones is a record. Targets appeared to be associated with the power grid.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
No apparent significant gains by Russia
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian attacks continue to claw out slim gains.
Outlook —
Russia’s push and Ukraine’s personnel and munitions difficulties (once again) and dwindling support from the west seem to be pushing some kind of ceasefire or end to the conflict. This is possibly being driven by the anticipation of a Trump victory.
Russia’s gambit with the NK forces now appears to be one where the Kremlin is attempting to stave off a greater conscription effort for a long as possible. It has the forces to eek out some terrain gains, but not enough to both clear the Kursk salient and capture the Donbas before winter. Russia amassed a force of about 600,000 for its offensive this year and has last the majority of those forces and equipment.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IAF resumed targeting Hezbollah positions in S Beirut.
- US threatens Israel over Gaza aid.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Blinken/Austin sent “a private diplomatic communication that we did not intend to make public” to the Israeli govt threatening them with arms embargo (an operation echoed by other western sources).
The letter says Israel “must, starting now and within 30 days” act on a series of concrete measures to boost aid supplies (to Gaza), adding that failure may “have implications for US policy”. It cites US laws which can prohibit military assistance to countries that impede delivery of US humanitarian aid.
It says Israel must “surge all forms of humanitarian assistance throughout Gaza” before winter, including by enabling a minimum of 350 lorries a day to enter through all four major crossings and a new fifth crossing, as well as allowing people in al-Mawasi to move inland.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9wk0e8zey2o
OBSERVATION - This was intended to be kept secret in order to avoid pushback from pro-israeli elements in both parties. It is a continuation of the regime’s policy to prevent Israel from obtaining a military victory over Hamas (and Hezbollah) as well and continued eventual appeasement of Iran. This has been one of the most hostile administrations towards Israel. The US regime has spent a lot of time and effort to hamstring where it can Israel’s military options.
One area unspoken and noted below, is the pause in the bombing of the Hezbollah district in S Beirut, pressured by the US. In that period, Hezbollah was able to regroup enough to access supplies and actually increase rocket attacks toward Israel.
***
RELATED
(JPost) UNRWA is close to a possible breaking point for its operations in the Gaza Strip due to increasingly complicated conditions, said its head on Wednesday.
“I will not hide the fact that we might reach a point that we won’t be able anymore to operate,” UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini told journalists at a news conference in Berlin.
“We are very near to a possible breaking point. When will it be? I don’t know. But we are very near of that,” he said.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip, continues to be choked off by IDF forces as Hama et al attempted to regroup in that area.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
.Israeli army: We struck more than 140 targets in more than 50 locations in Lebanon, including weapons depots
The Israeli army has confirmed it conducted an airstrike in the Dahieh suburb targeting strategic weapons belonging to Hezbollah that were being stored in an underground storage facility. It was the first IAF strike in Beirut in nearly a week.
Israeli army: Hezbollah fired about 95 projectiles from Lebanon towards Israel on Tuesday in 17 attacks
Elements of a brigade assigned to the 210th IDF Division entered Lebanon. There are now elements of five IDF divisions in Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The spokesman for the Israeli army: air force intercepted an unmanned aircraft that made its way to the territory of the country from the east. The UAV was intercepted before crossing into the territory of the State of Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Bad fruit of biden’s pressuring of Israel has hampered its operations against Hezbollah. A lull in the attacks on Hezbollah positions in Beirut resulted in them being able to rally to a degree and launch more rockets than in recent days. This probably also indicates that Hezbollah was able to get some comms back up to support this as well as the defense in the south.
However, with elements of 5 divisions entering into S Lebanon, Hezbollah is having difficulty stemming the push. Israel for its part is systematically dismantling the forward defensive line in preparation for a potential faster and deeper strike on weakened forces.
Now the release of a letter threatening Israel with the stoppage of arms and munitions if Israel doesn’t change relief efforts to Gaza. Blinken et al and the numbskulls in the State and DoD simply over look that much of the ‘supply’ crisis is Hamas caused - documented as stealing over 50% of relief aid and reselling it in black markets to continue to fund the war. Plus there is no concern over the American hostages being held by Hamas.
A degree of carrot - stick is also apparent. The deployment of a THAADS battery is the carrot, embargo is the stick.
Some may think it unfeeling, but the population in Gaza has overwhelmingly supported Hamas - something in the 80+% range, and they participated in the Oct 7 terror strike. They made their bed.
There is also a degree of silence regarding the impending attack on Iran. After a lot of releases and speculations, talk/rumors have died down. Now mid week, I still expect the strike by the weekend. Indicators/rumors still suggest primarily military and potentially govt targets and going away from nuclear/oil targets. It is still anticipated to be a substantial strike, one that will trigger another Iranian strike - likely after the elections.
Many observers are now speculating that after the election, the gloves will come fully off for Israel - especially if Trump is elected.
Iran –
Iran FM left Tehran for Amman, Jordon, as the first destination of his third regional tour. He will visit Egypt and Turkey afterwards. In Turkey, he will attend a meeting of 3+3 format
***
Several Iranian lawmakers have in an official letter urged the country’s Supreme National Security Council to ask Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to reconsider the Islamic Republic’s current nuclear doctrine, which bans the development of atomic weapons, MP Ali-Asghar Nakhaei-Rad said. “The country’s current situation has changed, and we are now facing nuclear threats. Additionally, Shia jurisprudence is dynamic, and time and place influence the issuance of fatwas. The Supreme National Security Council should ask the Leader to approve a reconsideration of the nuclear policy,” he said, referring to a fatwa by Khamenei which prohibits the development and stockpiling of nuclear weapons.
OBSERVATION - Some think this ‘ban’ is providing plausible deniability for Iran’s nuclear weapon program. They wouldn’t have been pushing the enrichment of uranium otherwise (which violates the directive).
Misc of Note –
On October 17, join FEMA and millions of people worldwide in the annual ShakeOut earthquake drill. Designed to promote earthquake preparedness and safety, this international event takes place at 10:17 a.m. local time, allowing participants to practice the “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” technique.
The ShakeOut drill is not only about practicing earthquake safety but also serves as a reminder to check and update emergency plans and emergency supply kits.
OBSERVATION - I know, FEMA (PLUGH) but if you live in earthquake country (like I do), it is wise to evaluate your readiness to respond to an earthquake.
Black Swans -
A substantial increase in snow depth is forecast from Siberia to North America during the last two weeks of October, according to an analysis by Andrej Flis from Severe Weather Europe (SWE). This early buildup of snow cover could have significant implications for the upcoming winter across the northern hemisphere.
Snow accumulation in October can disrupt the stability of the polar vortex, a large-scale cyclone centered around the North Pole that influences weather patterns across the mid-latitudes. A destabilized polar vortex increases the likelihood of winter weather disruptions in regions such as the United States, Canada, and Europe. In particular, a larger snow cover in the northern hemisphere during autumn may lead to more erratic winter pressure systems, potentially resulting in harsher cold and increased snowfall.
Additionally, an unusual pressure pattern in the stratosphere, alongside a warming anomaly over the western half of the polar circle, hints at a weakened polar vortex heading into the winter months. Forecasts show that stratospheric wind speeds may decrease between December and January, further suggesting the possibility of a weaker polar vortex. This weakening could trigger a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, a phenomenon known to lead to drastic weather changes.
OBSERVATION - Any kind of weather forecast is wrought with a lot of uncertainty. As the season develops we could see extremes of either dry and warm or cold and snow of a massive amount. Plan for the latter, worse case scenario.
Thanks Godzilla
In some ways things feel ‘quiet’. A hard concept given the ongoing turmoil of the election cycle and major conflicts around the globe. A pause, like the impending dropping of the other shoe. Can’t put my finger completely on it, but in part it may be due to the election campaign and what appears at this moment to be an impending trump win.
Folks, keep pour OODA cycle active - especially for stuff out side your normalcy bias.
Globalism / Great Reset –
From a video released from a recent Tedx talk. WEF “agenda contributor” Yuval Noah Harari said Human rights are “just a fictional story”.
“It may be a very nice story, it may be a very attractive story—we want to believe it—but it’s just a story. It’s not a reality.”
“And the same thing is also true in the political field. States and nations are also—like human rights, and like God, and like heaven—they too are just stories... Very powerful stories. Stories we might want to believe very much, but still they are just stories. You can’t really see the United States, you cannot touch it, you cannot smell it.”
Attendees reportedly clapped and cheered the statement.
OBSERVATION - Clearly, one of the most vile individuals in WEF’s hierarchy, Harari is continuing to state the clear goals of the WEF and the globalist power cabal.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
The FBI just quietly updated their crime data for 2022. Turns out it was missing thousands of crimes!
The updated data shows there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults.
OBSERVATION - Even with this ‘revision’ the lack of reporting strongly suggests that these numbers should actually be even higher.
Key point is this is another reason why the population has less and less confidence in the govt - when they lie about these numbers as well as economic ones.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Space Force announced that the X-37B will execute a series of ‘novel maneuvers’ called aerobraking.
This will consist of a series of passes using the impulse of Earth’s atmosphere to modify its orbit around our planet while expending minimal fuel.
The maneuver should allow the X-37B to safely dispose of its service module components.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/usaf-space-force-deploy-secretive-spaceship-boeing-x/
OBSERVATION - The X-37 is already an old space frame, by modern standards. I don’t hold out much chance that more up to date vehicles will be created - Boeing is the prime contractor.
Maneuverability and the ability to change orbits is becoming an increasing important function for defensive purposes to potentially attack enemy satellites by surprise and get other equipment in place quickly and more stealthy
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
In what some pundits called a desperate attempt to get her campaign on track again and regain momentum, harris stepped into the hated Fox studios for an interview with Bret Baier. She apparently was sold that this would be just another campaign stop and pitch, but things went south from the very first question and rapidly turned into a five alarm dumpster fire. Some have gone as far as saying this was the equivalent of biden at the first debate. It got so bad that according to Baier, multiple Kamala Harris handlers intervened off camera to cut off the interview.
She floundered under many specific questions, but many see the topic of illegal immigration being the one that hit Harris at the waterline, she could not even form the words to apologize for allowing criminals into the country that resulted in the senseless deaths of Laken Riley, Jocelyn Nungaray, and Rachel Morin.
Democrat damage control rapid sprung into place trying to spin the interview into a great, heroic triumph. However, I think with all the spin, it may cause many to actually review the interview, and it will not go well for harris’ numbers.
OBSERVATION - When democrat spinmeisters scramble to try to find some way to defend this interview - in part calling it an ‘ambush’ - you know they know it went bad. harris’ anger was on display last night and if the reports are true, she vented that anger on her staff afterwards. Will there be any shake-up in her staff, either by firing or quitting? Remains to be seen. Now, all eyes are on post interview polls to see just how much damage has occurred. Some say that if the damage is bad, she may be forced into more interviews - which even friendly ones will show her shortcomings and cause numbers to drop more. A death spiral. With less than three weeks to the election, a melt down of this magnitude often isn’t recoverable.
Bad news is the democrats may look to other means to stop the election of trump - false flag warning.
***
Caution regarding the massive early voting turnout. Historically, it has favored democrats. Some outlets suggest that trump in way over performing and silence from the democrat side on how well their side is doing turnout wise may indicate weakness. Again, don’t bet your bars at this stage. We have a long ways to go yet.
Illegal Immigration –
Venezuelan migrant gang ‘Tren de Aragua’ has now taken over at least four apartment complexes in San Antonio, Texas, according to reports.
This comes as corporate media dismisses their presence in Aurora, Colorado as a “handful” of incidents. (Daily mail)
OBSERVATION - This note also fit into CW2 category. The speed at which this gang is moving to control urban areas is frightening and law enforcement is losing ground to get it nipped in the bud. It will take greater federal resources working with the already overloaded police, to root these rats out - increasing the probability of violence that they are used to spreading in Venezuela.
North/South Korea –
North Korean state media said on Wednesday around 1.4 million young people had applied to join or return to the army this week, blaming Seoul for a provocative drone incursion that had brought the “tense situation to the brink of war.”
The fiery rhetoric comes after North Korea last week accused Seoul of sending drones over Pyongyang that scattered a “huge number” of anti-North leaflets. The North then blew up inter-Korean roads and rail lines on its side of the border on Tuesday, and warned that the South would “pay a dear price.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/north-korea-army-enlist/2024/10/16/id/1184245/
***
North Korea has also officially declared South Korea a “hostile state,” and enshrined it in the constitution. South Korea responded with readiness to counter any aggression, while still advocating for peaceful reunification
OBSERVATIONS - This continues to be sabre rattling on Kim’s part. There is no evidence of any impending attacks by NK.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia is actively preparing over 10,000 North Korean soldiers in the Far East, sources in Ukraine’s Defense Forces told RBC. Russia may deploy them to border areas near Ukraine or use them to rotate its own troops.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine reports on the missile and drone attack overnight that principally targeting the Kyiv region.
Shot down:
0/1 Kh-59 cruise missile
22/56 Shahed drones
Taken down by EW:
27/56 Shahed drones
Another 2 Shahed drones returned to Belarus.
As a result of the drone attack, an apartment building was damaged in the Desnyansky district of Kyiv, and there were no casualties.
Reported Russian casualties over the past few days have increased by as much as 15-20%. Evidence both of Russian pressing the attack and lack of successes.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Kursk: Poor weather is reportedly slowing down and complicating Russian and Ukrainian mechanized advances in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Minor Russian gains south of Pokrovsk.
Outlook —
One observation - if Russia is having to look to N Korea for cannon fodder, you know things are not going well. One analyst suggests that NK forces will be used to replace regional forces outside the Ukraine theater, permitting Russia to deploy those forces against Ukraine. There is no word if these NK forces are deploying here with their own equipment, but that may be a safe assumption - Russia is hard pressed to supply its own forces, let along a sizable foreign force.
Wet weather is beginning to get teeth and both sides will be further scrambling to gain tactical positions before much of the battlefield turns to goo. There were rumors that putin/kremlin wanted Pokrovsk and other areas of the Donbas captured by this time, but is it appealing that it isn’t going to happen.
Ukraine leadership has been scrambling to maintain western support. NATO forces have drained much of their reserves to Ukraine and are at a point of not having enough if their forces have to come into combat. Zelensky has been doing the circuit presenting his ‘victory’ plan to shore up support. It seems to have gained a little traction, but likely not as much as he has desired. If Trump wins, expect a lot more maneuvering on the Ukraine side for an acceptable cessation of hostilities. I don’t see Russia budging, as in spite of the disastrous campaign they have captured a fair amount of new territory and chances are zero that they will release any of it.
Continued hard fighting along the Donbas fronts. Drone wars will continue and a Russian missile blitz is still due.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldova stands to advance its path towards European integration in the upcoming October 2024 presidential election and referendum, but will likely remain a battleground state into the 2030s as EU membership negotiations continue.
The Kremlin is likely prepared to pursue several lines of effort in the future to derail Moldova’s EU path, such as · Attempting to influence and capture Moldovan state institutions;
· Exploiting the Kremlin’s military, economic, and political ties to the pro-Russian Moldovan regions of Transnistria and Gagauzia;
· Conducting reflexive control campaigns to shape EU member states’ decision-making regarding Moldova’s EU accession.
OBSERVATION - Russia’s hold on Transnistria is a card that is key to any acceptance into the EU. If Russia had been successful in its ‘land bridge’ to Transnistria, chances of EU membership would be nil by now. It will remain a thorn in the Moldovan goat’s side for the long term future.
Belarus -
Not posting a lot on this, but just about every day Belarus has Russian Shahed drones straying into its airspace. They have stopped scrambling their airfare to down them at this stage, likely due to Russian orders.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Nation celebrates Succoth (aka Feast of Tabernacles)
- B2 bombers hit hardened weapons storage facilities in Houthi controlled Yemen.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on October 15 that Israel would reject any ceasefire that would enable Hezbollah to reorganize and rearm. Netanyahu’s demand to prevent Hezbollah’s reorganization and rearmament are provisions that are in part enshrined in UN Resolution 1701.
U.S THAAD Air Defense systems are now on the ground in Israel and will be fully operational in short order.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IAF continues to eradicate Hamas and affiliated elements in N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Disputes over the cooperation of UN ‘peace keeping’ forces sprung to the front burner again overnight with video released overnight showing, Hezbollah rockets being launched just tens of meters from the UNIFIL Chinese battalion post. Already, it has been demonstrated that Hezbollah has used these UNIFIL facilities to place the underground bunkers and other attack sites from - all while under the watchful eyes of the UN, with their apparent blessing.
Some indicators that the Israeli ground operations are gaining speed as more and more border towns are being reported under Israeli control.
Hezbollah managed 18 or so rocket attacks into Israel overnight. Israel struck targets throughout Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli artillery shelling on the outskirts of the town of Hadar in the Quneitra countryside, Syria
Israeli aircraft launched raids at dawn on Thursday targeting a site believed to be a weapons depot at the entrance to the city of Latakia, which led to fires and explosions at the targeted site. Human rights sources confirmed that the bombing targeted a Hezbollah ammunition depot.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The US carried out a round of strikes in Yemen against the Iran-backed Houthis on Wednesday evening, three US defense official said, targeting hardened weapons storage facilities. The strikes were carried out by B-2 bombers, one official said. NOTE - B-2s haven’t been used in combat since 2017.
SecDef Austin added: “This is a demonstration of the US’s global attack capabilities to operate anytime and anywhere. The US will not hesitate to take action to protect American assets, and to deter attacks against civilians and our partners in the region.’
NOTE - Many are viewing this as a warning to Iran.
Houthis Political Bureau: US aggressive raids will not deter Yemen from continuing its support and assistance to Gaza and Lebanon in the face of US-backed Israeli arrogance
***
Missile attack targeted the American base in the Conoco gas field in the northern countryside of Deir Ezzor, Syria
Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims it launched drone attack on Eilat
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The use of B2 to hit Houthi targets indicates that these ‘hardened’ sites are likely used for ballistic missile and drone storage. The B2 can carry the really big, nasty bunker buster bombs - an a lot of them.
Since the last Israeli strike against Houthi targets, the controlled region has suffered extensive fuel and electricity shortages. Houthi’s have managed to launch some ballistic missiles and drones, but their effectiveness is near zero and easy pickings for Israeli air defense. Quiet too have been the attacks on Red Sea shipping. Shippers are still wary of routing thru the region.
As note under Iran, the B2 are also a warning to Iran and some see that combined with the soon fully operational THAAD battery, that Israel may soon strike and Iran needs to watch its step.
A US strike against Iran would expose a kind of schizophrenia of US foreign policy. On one hand, the US has essentially been bending over backwards to allow Iran to bypass all kinds of sanctions and even to push this current war. OTOH, big stick threatening that suggests that we will hit it in coordination with Israel poses serous global issues - such as closure of the Straits of Hormuz and a dramatic escalation of the war.
I made a mistake not factoring in Succoth as a delay in the Israeli attack on Iran. Since Israel has waited since Oct 1 to respond, a few more days is not significant but provide more intel on targets and leadership locations for final decisions. So the forecast strike now looks more likely for next week.
A big wild card in this is the elections. Netanyahu appears to be factoring that into some of his planning and doesn’t want anything to happen that may enable harris to get elected. This means any pre-election attack either being tempered way down or even delayed into November.
As I’ve repeatedly said here, arabs may see delay as weakness and Israel showed some weakness in backing off attacking Hezbollah’s S Beirut strongholds.
Delay may also work in Israel’s favor if using the cover of concession to US demands can lull the Iranian leadership into a sense of false security and get sloppy.
Pushing things off to next week as a higher possibility of a strike. Otherwise, chances swing to a post election attack.
Iran –
It is estimated that Iran has made about $144 Billion in sanctioned oil sales, all because the biden regime has refused to enforce existing sanctions.
OBSERVATION - The US is supporting the largest terrorism supporter in the world and anyone with half an IQ point knows full well that Iran is funneling virtually all of this money into their war efforts and plans. The US is not preventing a massive regional conflict, but adding gasoline and black powder to the mix when it all kicks off.
Syria -
ISIS attack target posts of the Pro-Assad forces forces in the countryside of Deir_ez_Zor in eastern Syria, killing a soldier and injuring others
Misc of Note –
Helene recovery continues to be a FEMA cluster. Pretty well established that FEMA elements are not pushing very hard to get to cut off regions and that their bureaucracy is not helping victims. Still seeing first hand reports of FEMA confiscating privately donated relief supplies.
More and more this appears to be both an exercise in incompetence covering up for a deliberate stiffing of the American people.