In some ways things feel ‘quiet’. A hard concept given the ongoing turmoil of the election cycle and major conflicts around the globe. A pause, like the impending dropping of the other shoe. Can’t put my finger completely on it, but in part it may be due to the election campaign and what appears at this moment to be an impending trump win.
Folks, keep pour OODA cycle active - especially for stuff out side your normalcy bias.
Globalism / Great Reset –
From a video released from a recent Tedx talk. WEF “agenda contributor” Yuval Noah Harari said Human rights are “just a fictional story”.
“It may be a very nice story, it may be a very attractive story—we want to believe it—but it’s just a story. It’s not a reality.”
“And the same thing is also true in the political field. States and nations are also—like human rights, and like God, and like heaven—they too are just stories... Very powerful stories. Stories we might want to believe very much, but still they are just stories. You can’t really see the United States, you cannot touch it, you cannot smell it.”
Attendees reportedly clapped and cheered the statement.
OBSERVATION - Clearly, one of the most vile individuals in WEF’s hierarchy, Harari is continuing to state the clear goals of the WEF and the globalist power cabal.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
The FBI just quietly updated their crime data for 2022. Turns out it was missing thousands of crimes!
The updated data shows there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults.
OBSERVATION - Even with this ‘revision’ the lack of reporting strongly suggests that these numbers should actually be even higher.
Key point is this is another reason why the population has less and less confidence in the govt - when they lie about these numbers as well as economic ones.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Space Force announced that the X-37B will execute a series of ‘novel maneuvers’ called aerobraking.
This will consist of a series of passes using the impulse of Earth’s atmosphere to modify its orbit around our planet while expending minimal fuel.
The maneuver should allow the X-37B to safely dispose of its service module components.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/usaf-space-force-deploy-secretive-spaceship-boeing-x/
OBSERVATION - The X-37 is already an old space frame, by modern standards. I don’t hold out much chance that more up to date vehicles will be created - Boeing is the prime contractor.
Maneuverability and the ability to change orbits is becoming an increasing important function for defensive purposes to potentially attack enemy satellites by surprise and get other equipment in place quickly and more stealthy
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
In what some pundits called a desperate attempt to get her campaign on track again and regain momentum, harris stepped into the hated Fox studios for an interview with Bret Baier. She apparently was sold that this would be just another campaign stop and pitch, but things went south from the very first question and rapidly turned into a five alarm dumpster fire. Some have gone as far as saying this was the equivalent of biden at the first debate. It got so bad that according to Baier, multiple Kamala Harris handlers intervened off camera to cut off the interview.
She floundered under many specific questions, but many see the topic of illegal immigration being the one that hit Harris at the waterline, she could not even form the words to apologize for allowing criminals into the country that resulted in the senseless deaths of Laken Riley, Jocelyn Nungaray, and Rachel Morin.
Democrat damage control rapid sprung into place trying to spin the interview into a great, heroic triumph. However, I think with all the spin, it may cause many to actually review the interview, and it will not go well for harris’ numbers.
OBSERVATION - When democrat spinmeisters scramble to try to find some way to defend this interview - in part calling it an ‘ambush’ - you know they know it went bad. harris’ anger was on display last night and if the reports are true, she vented that anger on her staff afterwards. Will there be any shake-up in her staff, either by firing or quitting? Remains to be seen. Now, all eyes are on post interview polls to see just how much damage has occurred. Some say that if the damage is bad, she may be forced into more interviews - which even friendly ones will show her shortcomings and cause numbers to drop more. A death spiral. With less than three weeks to the election, a melt down of this magnitude often isn’t recoverable.
Bad news is the democrats may look to other means to stop the election of trump - false flag warning.
***
Caution regarding the massive early voting turnout. Historically, it has favored democrats. Some outlets suggest that trump in way over performing and silence from the democrat side on how well their side is doing turnout wise may indicate weakness. Again, don’t bet your bars at this stage. We have a long ways to go yet.
Illegal Immigration –
Venezuelan migrant gang ‘Tren de Aragua’ has now taken over at least four apartment complexes in San Antonio, Texas, according to reports.
This comes as corporate media dismisses their presence in Aurora, Colorado as a “handful” of incidents. (Daily mail)
OBSERVATION - This note also fit into CW2 category. The speed at which this gang is moving to control urban areas is frightening and law enforcement is losing ground to get it nipped in the bud. It will take greater federal resources working with the already overloaded police, to root these rats out - increasing the probability of violence that they are used to spreading in Venezuela.
North/South Korea –
North Korean state media said on Wednesday around 1.4 million young people had applied to join or return to the army this week, blaming Seoul for a provocative drone incursion that had brought the “tense situation to the brink of war.”
The fiery rhetoric comes after North Korea last week accused Seoul of sending drones over Pyongyang that scattered a “huge number” of anti-North leaflets. The North then blew up inter-Korean roads and rail lines on its side of the border on Tuesday, and warned that the South would “pay a dear price.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/north-korea-army-enlist/2024/10/16/id/1184245/
***
North Korea has also officially declared South Korea a “hostile state,” and enshrined it in the constitution. South Korea responded with readiness to counter any aggression, while still advocating for peaceful reunification
OBSERVATIONS - This continues to be sabre rattling on Kim’s part. There is no evidence of any impending attacks by NK.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia is actively preparing over 10,000 North Korean soldiers in the Far East, sources in Ukraine’s Defense Forces told RBC. Russia may deploy them to border areas near Ukraine or use them to rotate its own troops.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine reports on the missile and drone attack overnight that principally targeting the Kyiv region.
Shot down:
0/1 Kh-59 cruise missile
22/56 Shahed drones
Taken down by EW:
27/56 Shahed drones
Another 2 Shahed drones returned to Belarus.
As a result of the drone attack, an apartment building was damaged in the Desnyansky district of Kyiv, and there were no casualties.
Reported Russian casualties over the past few days have increased by as much as 15-20%. Evidence both of Russian pressing the attack and lack of successes.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Kursk: Poor weather is reportedly slowing down and complicating Russian and Ukrainian mechanized advances in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Minor Russian gains south of Pokrovsk.
Outlook —
One observation - if Russia is having to look to N Korea for cannon fodder, you know things are not going well. One analyst suggests that NK forces will be used to replace regional forces outside the Ukraine theater, permitting Russia to deploy those forces against Ukraine. There is no word if these NK forces are deploying here with their own equipment, but that may be a safe assumption - Russia is hard pressed to supply its own forces, let along a sizable foreign force.
Wet weather is beginning to get teeth and both sides will be further scrambling to gain tactical positions before much of the battlefield turns to goo. There were rumors that putin/kremlin wanted Pokrovsk and other areas of the Donbas captured by this time, but is it appealing that it isn’t going to happen.
Ukraine leadership has been scrambling to maintain western support. NATO forces have drained much of their reserves to Ukraine and are at a point of not having enough if their forces have to come into combat. Zelensky has been doing the circuit presenting his ‘victory’ plan to shore up support. It seems to have gained a little traction, but likely not as much as he has desired. If Trump wins, expect a lot more maneuvering on the Ukraine side for an acceptable cessation of hostilities. I don’t see Russia budging, as in spite of the disastrous campaign they have captured a fair amount of new territory and chances are zero that they will release any of it.
Continued hard fighting along the Donbas fronts. Drone wars will continue and a Russian missile blitz is still due.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldova stands to advance its path towards European integration in the upcoming October 2024 presidential election and referendum, but will likely remain a battleground state into the 2030s as EU membership negotiations continue.
The Kremlin is likely prepared to pursue several lines of effort in the future to derail Moldova’s EU path, such as · Attempting to influence and capture Moldovan state institutions;
· Exploiting the Kremlin’s military, economic, and political ties to the pro-Russian Moldovan regions of Transnistria and Gagauzia;
· Conducting reflexive control campaigns to shape EU member states’ decision-making regarding Moldova’s EU accession.
OBSERVATION - Russia’s hold on Transnistria is a card that is key to any acceptance into the EU. If Russia had been successful in its ‘land bridge’ to Transnistria, chances of EU membership would be nil by now. It will remain a thorn in the Moldovan goat’s side for the long term future.
Belarus -
Not posting a lot on this, but just about every day Belarus has Russian Shahed drones straying into its airspace. They have stopped scrambling their airfare to down them at this stage, likely due to Russian orders.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Nation celebrates Succoth (aka Feast of Tabernacles)
- B2 bombers hit hardened weapons storage facilities in Houthi controlled Yemen.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on October 15 that Israel would reject any ceasefire that would enable Hezbollah to reorganize and rearm. Netanyahu’s demand to prevent Hezbollah’s reorganization and rearmament are provisions that are in part enshrined in UN Resolution 1701.
U.S THAAD Air Defense systems are now on the ground in Israel and will be fully operational in short order.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IAF continues to eradicate Hamas and affiliated elements in N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Disputes over the cooperation of UN ‘peace keeping’ forces sprung to the front burner again overnight with video released overnight showing, Hezbollah rockets being launched just tens of meters from the UNIFIL Chinese battalion post. Already, it has been demonstrated that Hezbollah has used these UNIFIL facilities to place the underground bunkers and other attack sites from - all while under the watchful eyes of the UN, with their apparent blessing.
Some indicators that the Israeli ground operations are gaining speed as more and more border towns are being reported under Israeli control.
Hezbollah managed 18 or so rocket attacks into Israel overnight. Israel struck targets throughout Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli artillery shelling on the outskirts of the town of Hadar in the Quneitra countryside, Syria
Israeli aircraft launched raids at dawn on Thursday targeting a site believed to be a weapons depot at the entrance to the city of Latakia, which led to fires and explosions at the targeted site. Human rights sources confirmed that the bombing targeted a Hezbollah ammunition depot.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The US carried out a round of strikes in Yemen against the Iran-backed Houthis on Wednesday evening, three US defense official said, targeting hardened weapons storage facilities. The strikes were carried out by B-2 bombers, one official said. NOTE - B-2s haven’t been used in combat since 2017.
SecDef Austin added: “This is a demonstration of the US’s global attack capabilities to operate anytime and anywhere. The US will not hesitate to take action to protect American assets, and to deter attacks against civilians and our partners in the region.’
NOTE - Many are viewing this as a warning to Iran.
Houthis Political Bureau: US aggressive raids will not deter Yemen from continuing its support and assistance to Gaza and Lebanon in the face of US-backed Israeli arrogance
***
Missile attack targeted the American base in the Conoco gas field in the northern countryside of Deir Ezzor, Syria
Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims it launched drone attack on Eilat
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The use of B2 to hit Houthi targets indicates that these ‘hardened’ sites are likely used for ballistic missile and drone storage. The B2 can carry the really big, nasty bunker buster bombs - an a lot of them.
Since the last Israeli strike against Houthi targets, the controlled region has suffered extensive fuel and electricity shortages. Houthi’s have managed to launch some ballistic missiles and drones, but their effectiveness is near zero and easy pickings for Israeli air defense. Quiet too have been the attacks on Red Sea shipping. Shippers are still wary of routing thru the region.
As note under Iran, the B2 are also a warning to Iran and some see that combined with the soon fully operational THAAD battery, that Israel may soon strike and Iran needs to watch its step.
A US strike against Iran would expose a kind of schizophrenia of US foreign policy. On one hand, the US has essentially been bending over backwards to allow Iran to bypass all kinds of sanctions and even to push this current war. OTOH, big stick threatening that suggests that we will hit it in coordination with Israel poses serous global issues - such as closure of the Straits of Hormuz and a dramatic escalation of the war.
I made a mistake not factoring in Succoth as a delay in the Israeli attack on Iran. Since Israel has waited since Oct 1 to respond, a few more days is not significant but provide more intel on targets and leadership locations for final decisions. So the forecast strike now looks more likely for next week.
A big wild card in this is the elections. Netanyahu appears to be factoring that into some of his planning and doesn’t want anything to happen that may enable harris to get elected. This means any pre-election attack either being tempered way down or even delayed into November.
As I’ve repeatedly said here, arabs may see delay as weakness and Israel showed some weakness in backing off attacking Hezbollah’s S Beirut strongholds.
Delay may also work in Israel’s favor if using the cover of concession to US demands can lull the Iranian leadership into a sense of false security and get sloppy.
Pushing things off to next week as a higher possibility of a strike. Otherwise, chances swing to a post election attack.
Iran –
It is estimated that Iran has made about $144 Billion in sanctioned oil sales, all because the biden regime has refused to enforce existing sanctions.
OBSERVATION - The US is supporting the largest terrorism supporter in the world and anyone with half an IQ point knows full well that Iran is funneling virtually all of this money into their war efforts and plans. The US is not preventing a massive regional conflict, but adding gasoline and black powder to the mix when it all kicks off.
Syria -
ISIS attack target posts of the Pro-Assad forces forces in the countryside of Deir_ez_Zor in eastern Syria, killing a soldier and injuring others
Misc of Note –
Helene recovery continues to be a FEMA cluster. Pretty well established that FEMA elements are not pushing very hard to get to cut off regions and that their bureaucracy is not helping victims. Still seeing first hand reports of FEMA confiscating privately donated relief supplies.
More and more this appears to be both an exercise in incompetence covering up for a deliberate stiffing of the American people.
Great assessment. Thank You!!!
Snows hit the Redoubt (better late than never) and final preparations for winter kick in. Continuing to take a deep look at the tea leaves to try to discern what path leftists will take in the coming weeks and months. It is very doubtful that the current status quo will remain much longer. None of paths look good for our country. Making sure my other preparations are in order.
Globalism / Great Reset –
In a case that has raised concerns about freedom of thought, religion and expression, Army veteran Adam Smith-Connor has been at the centre of a controversy for almost two years surrounding his silent prayers within a “buffer zone” for an abortion clinic in Bournemouth, England.
Yesterday he was found guilty. This is a legal turning point in the UK where prayerful thoughts in someone’s mind are considered a criminal offense.
In October 2022, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council introduced a Public Spaces Protection Order (“PSPO”) in the vicinity of the BPAS abortion clinic in Ophir Road, Bournemouth. The Order designated a “safe zone” around the clinic, within which it is prohibited to engage in protest related to abortion services and other specified activities.
In November 2022, Smith-Connor was spotted behind a tree on a green in a public space about 50 metres from the entrance of the BPAS abortion clinic. He was approached by Catherine Brookfield, a council officer, and accused of engaging in an act of disapproval of the work of the abortion clinic.
She asked him to move on as he was within the buffer zone and acts of “prayer as disapproval” were prohibited by the Council’s PSPO. He refused as he said he was praying for his deceased son and for the women, men, and children still being impacted by abortion today. He is still haunted by the decision he and his then-partner made to abort their unborn child 24 years ago.
“You are telling me that silent prayer is banned in this area? I’m praying in my mind and not approaching anyone. I’m entitled to pray silently for my dead son in a free country,” he said.
https://expose-news.com/2024/10/17/legal-turning-point-in-the-uk/
OBSERVATION - This reads almost like a plot out of some dystopian fiction movie. This is not the first instance of an individual being arrested and convicted of silent prayer. This reflects the no holds barred goal of globalists to censor even private thoughts of people. Coming soon to the US under the guise of the FACE act.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
Is harris ‘priming’ democrats to resort to violence should trump win?
“depth, like she’s unsure what to say about policy, or how to explain her past positions, or why she hasn’t already done the things she’s promised to do if she’s elected given that she’s the current vice president.
But on one particular subject she’s been consistent and forceful throughout her campaign. She’s adamant that Donald Trump will destroy America if he’s reelected. And not “destroy” in the sense of enact bad policies, but that he’ll round people up with the military and put them in camps.
There’s a precedent for this that Democrats set four years ago. During the BLM riots in the summer of 2020, Harris herself was out in front egging on the rioters, infamously working to raise bail money for those who had been arrested. Of the protests, she said this in a June 2020 interview with Stephen Colbert: “Everyone beware. They’re not gonna stop before Election Day in November, and they’re not gonna stop after Election Day … They’re not gonna let up, and they should not.”
OBSERVATION - Please read the link above, very thought provoking. I’ve noted many times that there is a potential that democrats will unleash violence like in 2020 should they lose power in DC. Now with some 12 million potential allies (illegals) ready to be thrown into the mix, the level of violence could be even more devastating. This would likely trigger those on the right to fight back and things really get ugly.
Democrat operatives like Antifa, transtifa, pro-hamas/hezbollah, pro-illegal etc groups at this stage haven’t been able to get traction on any specific topic, thus the year has been relatively riot free (apart from the minor temper tantrums at colleges this last spring). harris is trying to make trump the unifying element that these groups can rally against.
If elements of the right rise up and meet violence with violence, it could give the regime the justification to pull its trump (no pun intended) card - martial law.
As dangerous as these last couple weeks before the elections are, what lies on the other side are fraught with orders of magnitude more danger.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
U.S. industrial production fell more sharply than expected in September, signaling continuing weakness in the nation’s factory activity.
Data from the Federal Reserve, released on Oct. 17, showed a 0.3 percent decline in industrial output, following a downwardly revised 0.3 percent gain in August. Analysts had predicted a smaller drop of 0.2 percent for the month.
According to the Fed, the larger-than-expected decline was due in part to disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, along with the ongoing Boeing machinists’ strike. The aerospace sector, in particular, took a significant hit, with production of aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment falling by 8.3 percent, dragging down the overall index.
OBSERVATION - I think the Fed is jumping too quickly on hurricane causes, particularly since this is September data and Helene hit Sept 26th and Milton later, and the full extent of the damage are yet to be fully realized. I do think that eventually, hurricane related damages will impact industrial production, but at this stage blaming it is a way to CYA over the poor data.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
harris and walz skipped the Al Smith Charity Dinner held by the Archdiocese of New York last night. In doing so, may have further alienated democrat Catholic voters. She insulated herself by submitting a video address instead. Then she made matters worse by disrespecting Catholics further in the video, one that gathered no laughs.
Meanwhile Trump got the house laughing with many zingers.
North/South Korea –
The South Korean army has announced a state of combat readiness on Yeonpyeong Island, establishing 24-hour shelters.
This comes in response to unusual movements spotted at North Korean coastal artillery positions.
NOTE - This island has been hit in the past by NK artillery rounds, sparking off limited exchanges in artillery fire.
***
South Korea’s Yoon held a meeting with national security officials, considers North Korea’s dispatch of soldiers to Russia ‘grave security threat’ - Presidential office
Phillipines –
The Philippines and its allies, including Canada, Japan and the U.S., kicked off the maritime phase of Exercise Sama Sama 2024 in the South China Sea this week.
Participants for this year include BRP Jose Rizal (FF-150), BRP Waray (LC-288), BRP Nestor Reinoso (PC 380), HMCS Vancouver (FFH-331) and USS Howard (DDG-83). Naval aviation includes helicopters launched from the warships, land-based Philippine ScanEagle drones, a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon and a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force contingent composed of a P-1 Kawasaki maritime patrol aircraft and a ShinMaywa US-2 seaplane. Personnel from Australia, the United Kingdom and France are also present for the drills, although it’s unclear if these nations are observing the exercise or directly participating.
Russia -
*****
There are reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jin Ping have just signed a “partnership pact.”
Russia agrees to support China’s goals in Taiwan. China agrees to support Russia’s goals in Ukraine.
Jointly they condemn the United States.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
North Korea is sending 12,000 troops, including special forces, to support Russia in its war against Ukraine. According to the South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS), North Korea has decided to send four brigades to Ukraine and has begun deployment.
***
The heavy losses Russia has suffered in Ukraine have had repercussions back home. Russia has lost over half a million men dead or disabled. These losses among military age men affect recruiting for other emergency services like the State Fire Service and the paramilitary Internal Troops Force that augments local police and guards for key installations countrywide. These two organizations have a peacetime strength of over 400,000 personnel. Russia also constantly needs new workers to replace retiring workers to keep its economy going. In peacetime the Russian military is supposed to have a million active duty troops and two million reservists. The reality is different, with fewer than 800,000 active duty troops and about a million reservists, almost all of whom are conscripts whose enlistments recently expired. Poor record keeping and bureaucratic bumbling account for the lower numbers.
Russia needs workers to keep its economy going and, before the war, the workforce consisted of about 70 million men and women. Invading Ukraine caused a sharp drop in available workers and after two years of war there was a labor shortage of nearly three million personnel.
The wartime casualties in Ukraine caused substantial personnel shortages inside Russia. By 2024 the military losses were so great that the non-military organizations and the workforce were suffering considerable shortages of personnel.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/2024101815210.aspx#google_vignette
OBSERVATIONS - Some analysts are indicating that Russia will be hitting a ‘wall’ enter by the end of this year, but definitely in 2025 when they are unable to keep up current levels of conscription combined with the inability to produce the weapons / munitions necessary to maintain the war at their current loss rate. putin following the Kyiv debacle shifted Russia into a war of attrition, believing that his forces could wear out Ukraine first before the realities of sanctions and insufficient man power come into harsh affect.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Another very big Shahed swarm. The Ukrainian Air Force reports out of 135 launched, 80 were shot down and 44 were taken down by electronic warfare. Another 2 flew back to Belarus. Areas hit were the Kyiv and other northern areas of Ukraine.
Reported Russia casualties have now grown by nearly 50 % in the last few days (1500+) , reflecting the increased push by Russia to gain as much ground before the mud season hits.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Russian forces made minor gains on the western margin of the salient.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Minor Russian gains south of Pokrovsk.
Outlook —
There is growing discussion and positioning over some sort of peace talks. Zelenzki is trying to shore up waining western support, Russia trying to press as hard as it can to gain terrain for ‘negotiations’. All within the context of the increasing probability of a trump second term and his outspoken promises to put an end to the conflict. The conflict may be entering end game.
As such, Russian attacks will continue at a high tempo to gain as much as possible before the mud season.
Belarus -
Lukashenko stated that Belarusians must be present at any negotiations to resolve the Ukraine war. “This is our issue too, and I don’t want decisions made without us that could affect our country,” he said, emphasizing Belarus’ role in the talks.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Sinwar is dead, no replacement has been identified
- Gaza search and destroy operations are growing.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Biden: I congratulated Netanyahu on killing Sinwar, it’s time to move on, I hope he ends the war soon
U.S Secretary of State Tony Blinken spoke with the Prime Minister of Qatar and discussed with him the elimination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and negotiations on the hostage deal, Qatari foreign ministry said
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Sinwar was killed after the building he was in collapsed on top of him, as well as shrapnel from two types of munitions
The incident began around 10 a.m. when a 450th Battalion soldier spotted a suspicious figure entering and exiting a building, alerting his commander, who ordered fire in response. The area was in Rafah, near the Philadelphi corridor along the border with Egypt
At 3 p.m., IDF forces, using a drone, identified three figures leaving the building, attempting to move from house to house. Two figures were covered with blankets, walking ahead of Sinwar to clear the way. The 450th Battalion commander opened fire on the group, causing them to scatter. Two terrorists fled into one building, and Sinwar into another.
Sinwar moved to the second floor of the building, and the IDF responded by firing a tank shell at it. As the IDF Infantry Commanders School (Bislach) unit began to sweep the building, two grenades were thrown at them—one exploded, the other did not. The troops pulled back and sent a drone, which detected an injured figure, face covered, sitting in a room and attempting to knock the drone out of the air with a stick.
Israeli forces fired another tank round at the building, partially collapsing it around Sinwar.
The next sweep of the building occurred at dawn, when troops discovered a body with recognizable features, leading to the identification process, which was completed in the evening.
Drone and post mortem photos of Sinwar indicate that the first attack tore off parts of his right forearm and hand, and drone video indicates he had fashioned a tourniquet out of a wire. He also lost at least one finger from his left hand. When they found his body, his brains were literally blown out and a gaping hole in his forehead.
The two terrorists who were killed with Sinwar are Mahmoud Hamdan and Hani Zarov, senior members of the Rafah Brigade of Hamas.
Sinwar was carrying fake passports and lots of cash money and an UNRWA employee’s ID as well as a map of tunnels
No hostages were immediately found in the vicinity.
It appears that Sinwar was trying to escape into Egypt, perhaps hoping one of the smuggling tunnels was still intact. It is believed from evidence that he hid in the same tunnel where Hamas murdered six hostages in Rafah.
***
The IDF expanded the raid on the northern Gaza Strip: the battle team of the Givati Brigade joined the expansion of the activities of Division 162 in the Jabalia region.
In the center of the Gaza Strip, forces of Division 252 attacked a military building from which terrorists were operating during the last day.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army calls up additional brigade to Lebanon front.
Israeli army says it bombed 150 targets in Lebanon and Gaza yesterday
Hezbollah says its command has given orders to escalate the battle with Israel. Hezbollah “announces the transition to a new and escalating phase in the confrontation with the Israeli, which the events of the coming days will show”
———WEST BANK——————————-
Clashes increased overnight between palestinians and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Follow up on the B2 airstrike against the Houthis. Large “bunker buster” bombs —GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP) — which can only be carried by B-2 stealth bombers were used to destroy underground Houthi missile storage sites in Yemen, one official said. First time U.S. Air Force’s massive ordnance penetrator (MOP) has been used in combat.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Russia has warned Israel against striking Iranian nuclear facilities, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Thursday, according to state news agency TASS. “This would be a catastrophic development and a complete negation of all existing principles in the area of ensuring nuclear safety,” the deputy minister said.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The death of Sinwar came as a sudden shock. He was discovered essentially by accident by a training battalion. His final hours were likely very painful and desperate, mortally wounded and no aid/assistance - he died like a dog.
Instantly, thoughts came in regards to what happens to hostages being held by Hamas. Sinwar’s death is unlikely to meaningfully change Hamas’ negotiating position because Hamas aims to exploit the hostages it still holds to compel Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire that would enable Hamas to rebuild. This hasn’t stopped Israel so far, and is unlikely to in the future. Sinwar’s death likely will speed the murder of the remaining hostages.
Sinwar’s death has also opened a window of opportunity to have the general gaza population take and turn away from Hamas and towards Israel’s goals. This is a long shot, since Hamas commanded 90+% support of the population, that support with the removal of Hamas guns to their head could switch. When the realities that Sinwar was trying to run away from the fight and get into Egypt hit, minds may turn.
Leadership is uncertain. Israel has torn up the chain of command that remaining elements have difficulty coordinating and are increasingly operating on their own. Fact is over the past few weeks of Sinwar ‘black out’, Hamas as a whole was pretty well left to fend for themselves. As evident in N Gaza, lower level leaders are attempting to rally forces, but they are lacking the weapons and coordination / C2 necessary to mount any meaningful resistance. Top this off, Israel has committed more forces to Gaza even before the discover of Sinwar’s death, leaving Hama even more hard pressed.
Remaining Hamas leadership is likely to be in a jihadi mindset and fight to the death.
It is fairly evident that the biden regime did what it could to protect Sinwar. For example Jack Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Advisor, on March 19, 2024 stated: “Israel’s military operation in Rafah would be a mistake”
harris said similar. The regime went as far to slow the delivery of promised weapons as a punishment for Israel acting against Rafah.
All this is not lost to Hezbollah, having its leadership decimated, but having a deeper bench and more direct support from Iran. Israel is committing more forces into S Lebanon and this will stress Hezbollah even more.
However, Hezbollah is receiving even more pushback internally, as Sunni, Christian and Druze political elements are showing more backbone. See Lebanon below.
Finally, back around to Iran. Whether or not this will alter Israeli timing for their attack is unknown. A delay of 18 more days until after the election seems excessive, but so far Israel has acted with very substantial measures and could be taking extra time to make sure its plans are tight. A possible indicator of soon action comes from the reduction in targets attacked by air overnight, down to around 150 covering both Lebanon and Gaza - easily a 50% reduction. Those aircraft not being used may be getting prepared for the strike. Sinwar’s death also provides an opportunity for distraction of Iran’s interests.
Iran –
The agreement on a comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and Iran will be signed during a visit by Pezeshkian to Moscow, - the Iranian ambassador said
Lebanon -
The Lebanese government has asked the Foreign Minister to summon Iran’s Charge d’Affaires in Beirut over the remarks made by Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who had said Tehran is ready to negotiate with Paris on concrete measures to implement UNSCR 1701 in Lebanon.
PM Najib Mikati said “We are surprised by the Iranian Parliament Speaker’s statement that Tehran is ready to negotiate with France regarding the implementation of Resolution 1701”
Furrther, the Iranian remarks were “an unacceptable attempt to establish an illegal guardianship over Lebanon and a blatant interference in Lebanon’s affairs.”
OBSERVATION - This shows that as far as Lebanon is concerned, Iran views Hezbollah as the ruling power, not the current Lebanese govt and that Iran is the one to adjudicate the fulfillment of UN Resolution 1701. This is forcing Hezbollah to face a potential second front.