Snows hit the Redoubt (better late than never) and final preparations for winter kick in. Continuing to take a deep look at the tea leaves to try to discern what path leftists will take in the coming weeks and months. It is very doubtful that the current status quo will remain much longer. None of paths look good for our country. Making sure my other preparations are in order.
Globalism / Great Reset –
In a case that has raised concerns about freedom of thought, religion and expression, Army veteran Adam Smith-Connor has been at the centre of a controversy for almost two years surrounding his silent prayers within a “buffer zone” for an abortion clinic in Bournemouth, England.
Yesterday he was found guilty. This is a legal turning point in the UK where prayerful thoughts in someone’s mind are considered a criminal offense.
In October 2022, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council introduced a Public Spaces Protection Order (“PSPO”) in the vicinity of the BPAS abortion clinic in Ophir Road, Bournemouth. The Order designated a “safe zone” around the clinic, within which it is prohibited to engage in protest related to abortion services and other specified activities.
In November 2022, Smith-Connor was spotted behind a tree on a green in a public space about 50 metres from the entrance of the BPAS abortion clinic. He was approached by Catherine Brookfield, a council officer, and accused of engaging in an act of disapproval of the work of the abortion clinic.
She asked him to move on as he was within the buffer zone and acts of “prayer as disapproval” were prohibited by the Council’s PSPO. He refused as he said he was praying for his deceased son and for the women, men, and children still being impacted by abortion today. He is still haunted by the decision he and his then-partner made to abort their unborn child 24 years ago.
“You are telling me that silent prayer is banned in this area? I’m praying in my mind and not approaching anyone. I’m entitled to pray silently for my dead son in a free country,” he said.
https://expose-news.com/2024/10/17/legal-turning-point-in-the-uk/
OBSERVATION - This reads almost like a plot out of some dystopian fiction movie. This is not the first instance of an individual being arrested and convicted of silent prayer. This reflects the no holds barred goal of globalists to censor even private thoughts of people. Coming soon to the US under the guise of the FACE act.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
Is harris ‘priming’ democrats to resort to violence should trump win?
“depth, like she’s unsure what to say about policy, or how to explain her past positions, or why she hasn’t already done the things she’s promised to do if she’s elected given that she’s the current vice president.
But on one particular subject she’s been consistent and forceful throughout her campaign. She’s adamant that Donald Trump will destroy America if he’s reelected. And not “destroy” in the sense of enact bad policies, but that he’ll round people up with the military and put them in camps.
There’s a precedent for this that Democrats set four years ago. During the BLM riots in the summer of 2020, Harris herself was out in front egging on the rioters, infamously working to raise bail money for those who had been arrested. Of the protests, she said this in a June 2020 interview with Stephen Colbert: “Everyone beware. They’re not gonna stop before Election Day in November, and they’re not gonna stop after Election Day … They’re not gonna let up, and they should not.”
OBSERVATION - Please read the link above, very thought provoking. I’ve noted many times that there is a potential that democrats will unleash violence like in 2020 should they lose power in DC. Now with some 12 million potential allies (illegals) ready to be thrown into the mix, the level of violence could be even more devastating. This would likely trigger those on the right to fight back and things really get ugly.
Democrat operatives like Antifa, transtifa, pro-hamas/hezbollah, pro-illegal etc groups at this stage haven’t been able to get traction on any specific topic, thus the year has been relatively riot free (apart from the minor temper tantrums at colleges this last spring). harris is trying to make trump the unifying element that these groups can rally against.
If elements of the right rise up and meet violence with violence, it could give the regime the justification to pull its trump (no pun intended) card - martial law.
As dangerous as these last couple weeks before the elections are, what lies on the other side are fraught with orders of magnitude more danger.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
U.S. industrial production fell more sharply than expected in September, signaling continuing weakness in the nation’s factory activity.
Data from the Federal Reserve, released on Oct. 17, showed a 0.3 percent decline in industrial output, following a downwardly revised 0.3 percent gain in August. Analysts had predicted a smaller drop of 0.2 percent for the month.
According to the Fed, the larger-than-expected decline was due in part to disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, along with the ongoing Boeing machinists’ strike. The aerospace sector, in particular, took a significant hit, with production of aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment falling by 8.3 percent, dragging down the overall index.
OBSERVATION - I think the Fed is jumping too quickly on hurricane causes, particularly since this is September data and Helene hit Sept 26th and Milton later, and the full extent of the damage are yet to be fully realized. I do think that eventually, hurricane related damages will impact industrial production, but at this stage blaming it is a way to CYA over the poor data.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
harris and walz skipped the Al Smith Charity Dinner held by the Archdiocese of New York last night. In doing so, may have further alienated democrat Catholic voters. She insulated herself by submitting a video address instead. Then she made matters worse by disrespecting Catholics further in the video, one that gathered no laughs.
Meanwhile Trump got the house laughing with many zingers.
North/South Korea –
The South Korean army has announced a state of combat readiness on Yeonpyeong Island, establishing 24-hour shelters.
This comes in response to unusual movements spotted at North Korean coastal artillery positions.
NOTE - This island has been hit in the past by NK artillery rounds, sparking off limited exchanges in artillery fire.
***
South Korea’s Yoon held a meeting with national security officials, considers North Korea’s dispatch of soldiers to Russia ‘grave security threat’ - Presidential office
Phillipines –
The Philippines and its allies, including Canada, Japan and the U.S., kicked off the maritime phase of Exercise Sama Sama 2024 in the South China Sea this week.
Participants for this year include BRP Jose Rizal (FF-150), BRP Waray (LC-288), BRP Nestor Reinoso (PC 380), HMCS Vancouver (FFH-331) and USS Howard (DDG-83). Naval aviation includes helicopters launched from the warships, land-based Philippine ScanEagle drones, a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon and a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force contingent composed of a P-1 Kawasaki maritime patrol aircraft and a ShinMaywa US-2 seaplane. Personnel from Australia, the United Kingdom and France are also present for the drills, although it’s unclear if these nations are observing the exercise or directly participating.
Russia -
*****
There are reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jin Ping have just signed a “partnership pact.”
Russia agrees to support China’s goals in Taiwan. China agrees to support Russia’s goals in Ukraine.
Jointly they condemn the United States.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
North Korea is sending 12,000 troops, including special forces, to support Russia in its war against Ukraine. According to the South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS), North Korea has decided to send four brigades to Ukraine and has begun deployment.
***
The heavy losses Russia has suffered in Ukraine have had repercussions back home. Russia has lost over half a million men dead or disabled. These losses among military age men affect recruiting for other emergency services like the State Fire Service and the paramilitary Internal Troops Force that augments local police and guards for key installations countrywide. These two organizations have a peacetime strength of over 400,000 personnel. Russia also constantly needs new workers to replace retiring workers to keep its economy going. In peacetime the Russian military is supposed to have a million active duty troops and two million reservists. The reality is different, with fewer than 800,000 active duty troops and about a million reservists, almost all of whom are conscripts whose enlistments recently expired. Poor record keeping and bureaucratic bumbling account for the lower numbers.
Russia needs workers to keep its economy going and, before the war, the workforce consisted of about 70 million men and women. Invading Ukraine caused a sharp drop in available workers and after two years of war there was a labor shortage of nearly three million personnel.
The wartime casualties in Ukraine caused substantial personnel shortages inside Russia. By 2024 the military losses were so great that the non-military organizations and the workforce were suffering considerable shortages of personnel.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/2024101815210.aspx#google_vignette
OBSERVATIONS - Some analysts are indicating that Russia will be hitting a ‘wall’ enter by the end of this year, but definitely in 2025 when they are unable to keep up current levels of conscription combined with the inability to produce the weapons / munitions necessary to maintain the war at their current loss rate. putin following the Kyiv debacle shifted Russia into a war of attrition, believing that his forces could wear out Ukraine first before the realities of sanctions and insufficient man power come into harsh affect.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Another very big Shahed swarm. The Ukrainian Air Force reports out of 135 launched, 80 were shot down and 44 were taken down by electronic warfare. Another 2 flew back to Belarus. Areas hit were the Kyiv and other northern areas of Ukraine.
Reported Russia casualties have now grown by nearly 50 % in the last few days (1500+) , reflecting the increased push by Russia to gain as much ground before the mud season hits.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Russian forces made minor gains on the western margin of the salient.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Minor Russian gains south of Pokrovsk.
Outlook —
There is growing discussion and positioning over some sort of peace talks. Zelenzki is trying to shore up waining western support, Russia trying to press as hard as it can to gain terrain for ‘negotiations’. All within the context of the increasing probability of a trump second term and his outspoken promises to put an end to the conflict. The conflict may be entering end game.
As such, Russian attacks will continue at a high tempo to gain as much as possible before the mud season.
Belarus -
Lukashenko stated that Belarusians must be present at any negotiations to resolve the Ukraine war. “This is our issue too, and I don’t want decisions made without us that could affect our country,” he said, emphasizing Belarus’ role in the talks.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Sinwar is dead, no replacement has been identified
- Gaza search and destroy operations are growing.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Biden: I congratulated Netanyahu on killing Sinwar, it’s time to move on, I hope he ends the war soon
U.S Secretary of State Tony Blinken spoke with the Prime Minister of Qatar and discussed with him the elimination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and negotiations on the hostage deal, Qatari foreign ministry said
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Sinwar was killed after the building he was in collapsed on top of him, as well as shrapnel from two types of munitions
The incident began around 10 a.m. when a 450th Battalion soldier spotted a suspicious figure entering and exiting a building, alerting his commander, who ordered fire in response. The area was in Rafah, near the Philadelphi corridor along the border with Egypt
At 3 p.m., IDF forces, using a drone, identified three figures leaving the building, attempting to move from house to house. Two figures were covered with blankets, walking ahead of Sinwar to clear the way. The 450th Battalion commander opened fire on the group, causing them to scatter. Two terrorists fled into one building, and Sinwar into another.
Sinwar moved to the second floor of the building, and the IDF responded by firing a tank shell at it. As the IDF Infantry Commanders School (Bislach) unit began to sweep the building, two grenades were thrown at them—one exploded, the other did not. The troops pulled back and sent a drone, which detected an injured figure, face covered, sitting in a room and attempting to knock the drone out of the air with a stick.
Israeli forces fired another tank round at the building, partially collapsing it around Sinwar.
The next sweep of the building occurred at dawn, when troops discovered a body with recognizable features, leading to the identification process, which was completed in the evening.
Drone and post mortem photos of Sinwar indicate that the first attack tore off parts of his right forearm and hand, and drone video indicates he had fashioned a tourniquet out of a wire. He also lost at least one finger from his left hand. When they found his body, his brains were literally blown out and a gaping hole in his forehead.
The two terrorists who were killed with Sinwar are Mahmoud Hamdan and Hani Zarov, senior members of the Rafah Brigade of Hamas.
Sinwar was carrying fake passports and lots of cash money and an UNRWA employee’s ID as well as a map of tunnels
No hostages were immediately found in the vicinity.
It appears that Sinwar was trying to escape into Egypt, perhaps hoping one of the smuggling tunnels was still intact. It is believed from evidence that he hid in the same tunnel where Hamas murdered six hostages in Rafah.
***
The IDF expanded the raid on the northern Gaza Strip: the battle team of the Givati Brigade joined the expansion of the activities of Division 162 in the Jabalia region.
In the center of the Gaza Strip, forces of Division 252 attacked a military building from which terrorists were operating during the last day.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army calls up additional brigade to Lebanon front.
Israeli army says it bombed 150 targets in Lebanon and Gaza yesterday
Hezbollah says its command has given orders to escalate the battle with Israel. Hezbollah “announces the transition to a new and escalating phase in the confrontation with the Israeli, which the events of the coming days will show”
———WEST BANK——————————-
Clashes increased overnight between palestinians and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Follow up on the B2 airstrike against the Houthis. Large “bunker buster” bombs —GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP) — which can only be carried by B-2 stealth bombers were used to destroy underground Houthi missile storage sites in Yemen, one official said. First time U.S. Air Force’s massive ordnance penetrator (MOP) has been used in combat.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Russia has warned Israel against striking Iranian nuclear facilities, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Thursday, according to state news agency TASS. “This would be a catastrophic development and a complete negation of all existing principles in the area of ensuring nuclear safety,” the deputy minister said.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The death of Sinwar came as a sudden shock. He was discovered essentially by accident by a training battalion. His final hours were likely very painful and desperate, mortally wounded and no aid/assistance - he died like a dog.
Instantly, thoughts came in regards to what happens to hostages being held by Hamas. Sinwar’s death is unlikely to meaningfully change Hamas’ negotiating position because Hamas aims to exploit the hostages it still holds to compel Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire that would enable Hamas to rebuild. This hasn’t stopped Israel so far, and is unlikely to in the future. Sinwar’s death likely will speed the murder of the remaining hostages.
Sinwar’s death has also opened a window of opportunity to have the general gaza population take and turn away from Hamas and towards Israel’s goals. This is a long shot, since Hamas commanded 90+% support of the population, that support with the removal of Hamas guns to their head could switch. When the realities that Sinwar was trying to run away from the fight and get into Egypt hit, minds may turn.
Leadership is uncertain. Israel has torn up the chain of command that remaining elements have difficulty coordinating and are increasingly operating on their own. Fact is over the past few weeks of Sinwar ‘black out’, Hamas as a whole was pretty well left to fend for themselves. As evident in N Gaza, lower level leaders are attempting to rally forces, but they are lacking the weapons and coordination / C2 necessary to mount any meaningful resistance. Top this off, Israel has committed more forces to Gaza even before the discover of Sinwar’s death, leaving Hama even more hard pressed.
Remaining Hamas leadership is likely to be in a jihadi mindset and fight to the death.
It is fairly evident that the biden regime did what it could to protect Sinwar. For example Jack Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Advisor, on March 19, 2024 stated: “Israel’s military operation in Rafah would be a mistake”
harris said similar. The regime went as far to slow the delivery of promised weapons as a punishment for Israel acting against Rafah.
All this is not lost to Hezbollah, having its leadership decimated, but having a deeper bench and more direct support from Iran. Israel is committing more forces into S Lebanon and this will stress Hezbollah even more.
However, Hezbollah is receiving even more pushback internally, as Sunni, Christian and Druze political elements are showing more backbone. See Lebanon below.
Finally, back around to Iran. Whether or not this will alter Israeli timing for their attack is unknown. A delay of 18 more days until after the election seems excessive, but so far Israel has acted with very substantial measures and could be taking extra time to make sure its plans are tight. A possible indicator of soon action comes from the reduction in targets attacked by air overnight, down to around 150 covering both Lebanon and Gaza - easily a 50% reduction. Those aircraft not being used may be getting prepared for the strike. Sinwar’s death also provides an opportunity for distraction of Iran’s interests.
Iran –
The agreement on a comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and Iran will be signed during a visit by Pezeshkian to Moscow, - the Iranian ambassador said
Lebanon -
The Lebanese government has asked the Foreign Minister to summon Iran’s Charge d’Affaires in Beirut over the remarks made by Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who had said Tehran is ready to negotiate with Paris on concrete measures to implement UNSCR 1701 in Lebanon.
PM Najib Mikati said “We are surprised by the Iranian Parliament Speaker’s statement that Tehran is ready to negotiate with France regarding the implementation of Resolution 1701”
Furrther, the Iranian remarks were “an unacceptable attempt to establish an illegal guardianship over Lebanon and a blatant interference in Lebanon’s affairs.”
OBSERVATION - This shows that as far as Lebanon is concerned, Iran views Hezbollah as the ruling power, not the current Lebanese govt and that Iran is the one to adjudicate the fulfillment of UN Resolution 1701. This is forcing Hezbollah to face a potential second front.
Thanks Godzilla
And I see this as part of what we're facing should the DS take power this year.
A map of runnels? Looks like a twofer for the good guys.
Globalism / Great Reset –
“During the covid-19 pandemic, falsehoods about masks, vaccines and ‘lockdowns’ spread as fast as the virus itself, and were almost as deadly,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at the World Health Summit on Sunday.
The World Health Summit (“WHS”) is an annual international conference and network that brings together “stakeholders” from politics, science, the private sector and civil society to set the agenda for a “healthier” future. Established in 2009, the summit is held in Berlin, Germany, and also offers online participation.
This year’s WHS was held between 13 and 15 October under the slogan “Building Trust for a Healthier World.”
“Media, celebrities, social media influencers and politicians have spread false claims that the Agreement will cede national sovereignty to WHO and give it the power to impose ‘lockdowns’ or vaccine mandates on countries.
“To be sure, governments and internet and social media companies have a responsibility to prevent the spread of harmful lies and promote access to accurate health information.
“WHO is working with a range of companies and researchers and partners to understand how misinformation and disinformation spreads, who is targeted, how they’re influenced, and what we can do to counter this problem.”
As Dr. Meryl Nass noted when highlighting Tedros’ speech: “The other side needs to kill free speech in order to take over, so the stakes are very high.”
https://expose-news.com/2024/10/18/tedros-the-terrorist-says/
OBSERVATION - See the pattern in recent days. From John Kerry saying we must eliminate the 1st Amendment, to hillary saying those spreading ‘misinformation’ (ie commentary contrary to the narrative) need to be punished- the desires of censorship are global.
Tedros’ speech is an act of misinformation in its self as the very examples that he cites have now been pretty well proven to be the correct and scientifically supported - conspiracy theorists wins. But that is not the desired narrative, thus the continued gaslighting.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
Trump supporters in Pennsylvania are receiving threatening letters from the radical left.
“Your candidate is a felon, rapist, desecrator, an immoral flawed man. He is major reason violence us up, remember January 6th and Charlottesville?
By supporting him you are declaring your public support for a disregard of the law, civil discourse and unity. You are indicating your hatred for minorities, immigrants, foreigners, women, education, the rights of your fellow citizens, the rights of women to make decisions over their own healthcare needs. Oh and yes a hatred for Taylor Swift, who has contributed nothing but joy to the world. And you are entitled to all of this. However this is a reminder that your visible support comes with a price and at a cost. There will be consequences.
https://x.com/ImMeme0/status/1847283883621965920
OBSERVATION - These threats have been out there, but in this case are now overt. One interesting inclusion into the condemnation is the reference to Taylor Swift, which, along with some of the other phrasing, suggests a “Karen” as the source of the diatribe.
But make no mistake, regardless of who wins, there will be violence directed to republicans/trump supporters. The form and severity is yet to be seen.
***
As a reminder, Stop Cop Nation has issued a national call to action to end police brutality, starting with a national day of action scheduled for Tuesday, 22 October 2024. 17 cities are reportedly officially organizing for the event.
There are no law enforcement events that could trigger excessive violence, like Floyd, but previous events have resulting in some vandalism and other localized violence. Best be situationally alert and steer away from protest areas.
***
Elon Musk on the campaign trail for Trump is indicating that he believes that under harris the US will devolve into a “Mad Max” type of a scenario. Many think this is hyperbolic talk, but then consider the realities.
- Democrats/leftists have been very open about the application of violence if their power in DC is lost
- 12 million + illegals, many are single, military aged men, that could be expected to support the leftists.
- An economy that can have what few supports kicked out and cause a crash
- A US military that has been corrupted with the cancers of DEI, CRT and other woke agendas
- Total lack of a current president with the mental faculties to handle a crisis, but likely to start one.
I’ve noted over the past year especially the nasty level of these different crises. Democrats see the application of violence as a range, which can be dialed up or down. In reality, at this stage for democrats to initiate violence will not cause the right to cower, but be like the opening of pandora’s box - you won’t be able to get it under their control and it can explode in their faces.
Mad Max - I pray not, but it is not outside the realm of the possible under today’s conditions and has been seen in other regions of the world. Such a tearing apart of the nation is exactly what the globalists desire, taking a free nation out of dominance and allowing them to take over with little resistance from the US.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Doctors in Canada and Great Britain are warning the public about new “replicon” self-amplifying Covid mRNA “vaccines” which have been dubbed the “third atomic bomb” by renowned experts in Japan.
They are warning that the “self-replicating RNA vaccines” will “trigger a worldwide disaster.”
The new “vaccines” have just been unleashed on the Japanese public after recently being approved by the nation’s regulators, despite having no safety or efficiency data.
The injections have been dubbed “replicon” vaccines because they are able to replicate inside the human body to produce more mRNA over time. However, evidence of harm caused by the mRNA vaccines continues to emerge.
https://slaynews.com/news/doctors-issue-red-alert-new-replicon-covid-vaccines/
OBSERVATION - More mRNA dealings and officials are collaborating with the companies to keep citizens in the dark.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Concerns being raised already in Georgia that Dominion voting machines are switching trump votes to harris.
North/South Korea –
A video posted on social media is claiming to show North Korean soldiers training in Russia and has been geolocated to the garrison of the 127th Motor Rifle Division in Sergeevka roughly 130km north of Vladivostok.
Recent threats and posturing by Kim against the south and the US continue to register a just that, posturing. Growing evidence that he is in the process of sending a significant amount of its strategic level SOF units to Russia suggests that his capabilities to launch an attack on the South are degraded and unlikely to occur.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Putin labeled Zelensky’s statement about the possibility of Ukraine creating nuclear weapons as another provocation, asserting that Russia will not allow this under any circumstances. He warned that any steps taken by Ukraine towards developing nuclear weapons will face an appropriate response, state agency RIA reports.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
RUMINT –
RUMINT. A new Russian offensive could occur next week, says Petro Andriushchenko, advisor to the mayor of Mariupol. Preparations are underway at Russian military camps near Mariupol and Berdyansk. “They’re in an active preparation phase, gathering forces for an offensive that could start as early as next week.”
NOTE - I’m placing this here to keep alert to any other reports. This claim on its face seems very much ‘out there’. The OSINT and other analysts I follow do not see this on their radars, because Russia has committed so much resources and reserves to Kursk and the Donbas front that unless Ukraine has drawn down its defenses in this sector to dangerously low levels, Russia just can’t mount the force projection for a major offensive. See more under “Outlook”
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 4 of 6 Kh-59/69 missiles and 42 of about 98 Shahed-type strike drones overnight. Tracking of 46 more drones were lost, more updates to follow
Reported Russian losses continue to be 30+% higher than from earlier this summer, reflecting the increased push by Russia in the Donbas region.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
No reported changes in territory held
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russia continues to push hard on the southern flank of their salient.
Outlook —
More and more, Russian is relying on large drone attacks as their weapon of choice for their deep battle against Ukraine. The Russian AF, with its glide bombs, continues to operate unchallenged in the east as well. In spite of this, Russia is continuing to take heavy casualties and gaining very little ground.
That said, Ukraine seems to be softening a little bit. The nearly three years worth of this stage of the war (remember, its been ‘fighting’ since 2014 and before), its resources are being depleted as well.
RUMINT of a new offensive by all views is just that - rumors. Russia may be preparing to force the fight more in this southern sector, but it just doesn’t appear that they have the resources for anything more significant. Massing a force large enough takes time and can be observed. The only case I can see is that they are hoping for another Kharkiv push to gather more terrain from an unexpected direction. We’ll see next week if this rumor pans out.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- UNRWA has put a black mourning band on their logo.
- Israel requests second THAAD battery
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel has requested that the US send a second THAAD battery to protect the country in case of an Iranian reaction to the expected Israeli attack, according to Israel’s Channel 12
The US Army only has 7 THAAD batteries. 1 permanently in Guam & 1 in South Korea. Likely at least 1 will be down for maintenance at any given time, so that just leaves 3 left (possibly 2 as I think one might already be deployed in EUCOM).
Reports of a drone attack targeting the Israeli PM Netanyahu’s residence in Caesarea. No reports of casualties and it seems he and his wife were not there.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Reports that there are increasing surrenders/white flags in N Gaza areas.
Hamas has been utilizing hospitals as operational centers again, with Israel pressing attacks against three of them, prompting some international calls to stop.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF’s targeting has focused more on combat support in S Lebanon with still some more limited strikes in the Bekaa and Beirut areas.
Hezbollah has threatened a new level of fighting, but IDF continues to press northward in a methodological manner, forcing Hezbollah to continue to retreat.
Hezbollah is managing to get several hundred rockets fired into Israel every day. However, the barrages are largely ineffective nor coordinated.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Syrian army has reportedly confiscated two Hezbollah ammunition depots in the Damascus countryside. The authorities began restricting the movement of Hezbollah members, pro-Iranian groups and those close to them in the city of Homs and its surroundings for fear of Israeli raids. Unclear if Hezbollah has lost total access to the ammunition now being placed in Syrian army depots.
Israeli raid on illegal crossings in the border town of Al-Mashrafeh in the northern Bekaa
———WEST BANK——————————-
Clashes increased overnight between palestinians and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Israel continues to encounter drones entering from the Galilee region from Syria, originating from eastern portions of the country controlled by Iranian backed militias.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Aftershocks from Sinwar’s death continue to reverberate across the region. May be one of the main drivers of the growing mass surrenders in N Gaza. The lack of a successor being designated will hinder Hamas who will be forced to operate lacking a higher level of command. Hamas and affiliated other terror groups are managing to fight on a small scale level, but without support and coordination with higher level elements are doomed to be taken out by IDF.
Hezbollah on a tactical level is losing its forward defensive positions. Evidence of military stockpiles intended for months of fighting now belonging to Israel in numbers that have prompted Israel to incorporate them into their own stockpiles and establish special units to use them in the future. Replacement of these stockpiles from ammo dumps further north are questionable as Israel has hit so many of them.
Leadership of Hezbollah appears to now be under an IRGC commander - directly linking Iran to the organization. But then we pretty well already knew that.
Clock is ticking on the Israeli strike on Iran. Questions flying regarding the request for a second THAAD battery evidence that the planned attack will cross Iranian red lines and trigger a big response? Perhaps. It is also possible that Israel is striking while the iron is hot using what ever the justification for the first battery to apply to a second. No word of approval yet.
A second item continues to be the use of B2s in Yemen against Houthi targets and their use as a warning to Iran. Again, has Israel released enough information on their strike plans to have the B2s dusted off and ready to strike in support of Israel?
In any case, there region stands at the precipice of something even more serious.
Now you may also be hearing of the potential of an Iranian spoiling attack. Not out of the range of possibility, but definitely not the smartest thing to do after all of Irans bleats about not wanting to escalate matters.
In short,
- Hamas is continuing to collapse in Gaza
- Hezbollah is severely damaged and losing combat effectiveness
- Evidence that Israel’s impending strike is going to be a biggie and may trigger a much larger Iranian response.
Syria -
U.S. airstrikes in eastern Syria killed 35 ISIS members, including several leaders, disrupting the group’s operations
Venezuela -
Three more American citizens have been detained in Venezuela, in total 7 American citizens have been detained by maduro since the election in July.