Threat Matrix

Globalism / Great Reset –

Federal Trade Commission is now in the business of hiring child psychologists in a effort to regulate social media. You heard me right. Apart from being way, way outside its boundaries as far as its mission, this appears to be a new, backdoor effort to regulation of free speech on the interwebs.

Speech regulation - in all its forms, is a key plank of the WEF’s global aspirations to rule the world.

Economy –

Ford and the United Auto Workers (UAW) union have reached a tentative deal, which includes a record pay rise, to end a nearly six-week strike. The agreement included a 25% wage increase over the four-and-a-half-year life of the contract, with an initial increase of 11%.

OBSERVATION - This will likely force the other two car makers to make the same or similar agreements. The strike has reportedly made a $9 Billion dollar hit on the economy.

***
According to a report by Oilprice.com, the oil industry is facing growing difficulties in getting funding from banks for ongoing operations and exploration.

“If you have the word ‘refinery’ anywhere in your title, you’re not going to get finance,” Alwyn Bowden, chief executive officer of Malaysia’s Pengerang Energy Complex, said at an industry conference, as quoted by Bloomberg.
Banks are also increasingly demanding emission-cutting targets from the oil refiners seeking financing, Bowden noted.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Refiners-Struggle-To-Access-Financing-As-Banks-Shun-Fossil-Fuel-Projects.html

OBSERVATION - Bankers are tied into the goals of the WEF to eliminate fossil fuels in their entirety. Thus, through banking syncopates they are pushing their agenda forward.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

Jewish students at Cooper Union college were locked in the school library because a pro-Hamas gathering found out Jews were there. So they brought the protest inside and blocked all the exits. Then they started banging on the doors to the library, trying to get in. The Jewish students had to be evacuated via tunnels for their safety

OBSERVATION - Directed physical violence towards jews and in particular, jews on college and university campuses are starting to increase and the school leadership is doing essentially nothing to reign in these attacks.

IN RELATED - The Anti-Defamation League claims there has been a 388% rise in anti-Semitism since October 7. Anti-Semitic incidents in the United States have surged by close to 400% in the weeks following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, according to the Jewish advocacy group the Anti-Defamation League (ADL).

OBSERVATION - Race based conflict expands to include race AND religion.

***
Last weeks pro-Palestinian protestors storming of the Cannon House Office Building and the Rotunda was funded largely by the supposed “Jewish” organizations Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP) and IfNotNow - Soros. Soros’s philanthropic work, JVP was awarded several grants totaling $650,000 that bankrolled its ‘human rights’ campaign and ‘social welfare activities’ in the Middle East, according to a grant database maintained by the Soros-funded Open Society Foundations.

fNotNow has also been the beneficiary of Soros’s money. Soros’s grant-making Foundation to Promote Open Society handed $200,000 in 2019 and another $200,000 in 2021 to the 501(c)(3) IfNotNow Education Fund for growing membership, visibility, and impact around ‘general support’ to end Israeli ‘occupation in the Middle East’ (meaning the eradication of Israel), Open Society Foundations grant records show.

OBSERVATION - I’m sure by now no one is shocked at this.

Terrorism -

Police are actively looking for a “Robert Card”, a person of interest in the shooting in Lewiston ME that has killed at least 22 and wounded 60 others. According to Law Enforcement, Card is a trainer firearms instructor, and is believed to be in the Army reserves.
Card was also reported to have been committed to mental health facility for two weeks during summer 2023 and subsequently released. That means he was involuntarily committed which means he was banned from owning or possessing firearms.

He remains at large this morning. Latest is he is suspected to have fled to Massachusetts.

OBSERVATION - The left of course screams ‘gun control’ and gun bans. What we have is a mental health problem, not a gun problem.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Aircraft trackers note that carrier-based C-2A flights in the eastern Atlantic indicate that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower CSG has reached the Azores archipelago and is expected to reach the Strait of Gibraltar in approximately 36 to 48 hours, depending on its speed.

***
The Army air defense units deploying to the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas war come from Fort Bliss in Texas, Fort Liberty in North Carolina, and Fort Sill in Oklahoma, the Pentagon said Tuesday.
The units are bringing Patriot missile batteries and a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, battery to the region after more than a dozen drone and rocket attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria over the past week that the Pentagon has blamed on Iranian proxies. NBC News reported Tuesday evening that two dozen American military personnel were wounded in the attacks, but that could not be immediately confirmed by Military.com.

Although Pentagon officials didn’t name the Army units being deployed, Fort Bliss is home to the 11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade, Fort Liberty hosts the 108th Air Defense Artillery Brigade, and Fort Sill is home to the 31st Air Defense Artillery Brigade.

RELATED - Air plane observers/trackers note a very high number of C17 and C5A in the air and in route to the middle east region.

OBSERVATION - The speed at which these batteries can be deployed and made operational is believed to govern how soon the Gaza ground war will kick off. Either the biden regime puts the spurs to the pony and gets them up an going ASAP, or drags it out in order to mess up Israeli planning.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Democrat Congressman Jamaal Bowman has been criminally charged for falsely pulling a fire alarm in the Cannon Office Building. Bowman said in a statement to Axios that he will plead guilty to the charge and agree to pay a $1,000 fine.

OBSERVATION - J6 protestors were jailed and are in prison right now for the same criminal violations Bowman committed - two tiered justice system strikes again.

***
New Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, served as legal defense for Trump during both impeachment trials, voted against all Ukraine spending after the initial bill, objected to certifying 2020 election fraud, and has called for the arrest of Nancy Pelosi.

OBSERVATION - The full republican caucus voted in favor of Johnson yesterday and given his creds above show that the eGOP factor in the caucus was throughly defeated in this speakership battle. Leftist heads on the other side of the aisle are exploding.

***
The Biden administration’s nominee to be the next ambassador to Israel is pledging full American support and funding for an anti-Semitic United Nations organization known to cooperate with Hamas.

Jack Lew, the former Treasury Department secretary who is nominated as U.S. ambassador to Israel, informed Congress in written communication that if confirmed to the post, he will not eliminate taxpayer funding for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), an aid organization known to use anti-Semitic materials in its schools and preach Israel’s destruction.

U.S. funding to UNRWA, which topped $730 million under the Biden administration, has long been a flashpoint among Republicans in Congress, and was frozen under the Trump administration due to the organization’s promotion of Jew hatred. UNRWA is known to employ teachers who call for Jews to be murdered and glorify Hamas terrorists, including its leaders, according to watchdog groups. The Iranian-backed terror group that recently slaughtered nearly 1,500 Israelis is also reported to store weapons and other munitions at UNRWA facilities.

OBSERVATION - The schizophrenic biden Israel foreign policy continues to wobble. However, the anti-Israel core of the leftist democrat leadership comes to the surface on instances like this.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.

Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.

*****

NUCLEAR THREATS –

The day after leaving the nuclear accords, Russia successfully tested its ability to deliver a massive retaliatory nuclear strike by land, sea and air.
They test launched missiles from a land-based silo, a nuclear submarine, and from long-range bomber aircraft.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu called it a rehearsal for “a massive nuclear strike” in response to an aggressor’s nuclear attack.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rain increasing to nearly every day in the forecast for starting 25th of October.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russians continue to mindlessly push against the Avdiivka, making gains on the northern margin. Reports that Russia has committed the local operational reserve forces to try to obtain more momentum.

Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.

Russian espionage group was arrested in Sumy region. 3 persons were detained.

Tokmak Axis -.

Ukraine forces made gains on the Tokmak axis, securing the flanks to a greater degree while putting pressure on Russian forces there.

Bakhmut Axis -
Russian milbloggers are saying that the Ukrainian forces have breached the rail line south of Bakhmut. The say Russians are being forced back out of the trench line. Ukraine has been making incremental gains in this area for over a month. These reports by generally accurate Russian sources suggests that Russians are potentially on the brink of a major loss which would result in southern supply routes into Bakhmut being physically cut off by Ukraine forces.

Avdiivka Front - (Added this because action here has become a major front for Russia)
Fighting continues as Russian forces use ‘meat’ attacks on both sides of the salient Equipment and personnel losses continue to be extremely high, causing some observers to note that this may be the most costly battle of the war - exceeding even Bakhmut.
Russia throwing more troops on the northern flank of the sailent where they have been able to eek out minor gains over the past few days.

Partisan Resistance ——

Ukrainian military intelligence claims a vehicle with 4 FSB agents was blown up in Berdiansk on 23th October.

OUTLOOK -
The battle for Avdiivka is starting to overshadow Ukraines offensive actions in Tokmok and Bakhmut sectors. This fight will go on for weeks.

Europe / NATO General –

“Hungarian parliament rejects proposal to vote on Sweden’s NATO bid”, - Associated Press

OBSERVATION - Hungary has drifted closer and closer to the Russia sphere of influence lately - largely over EU/NATO support of Ukraine.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

PM Netanyahu - “I scheduled a date for the ground operation with the Chief of Staff. We are preparing for a ground invasion and I will not specify when or how, and I will not go into detail about the considerations that the majority of the public is unaware of.”

NOTE - Strong evidence that the delay is to permit US air defense systems to be deployed and set up across the middle east in response to expected ballistic missile attacks by Iran once the ground war in Gaza starts.

***
Israeli media reports the IDF infantry and armor carried out an extensive operation into Gaza overnight. Per multiple outlets, this incursion was more extensive than previous ones in recent days.
NOTE - There have been numerous recon in force penetrations into Gaza. Apparently what made this action unique was that there was a more significant raid factor rather than recon.

GENERAL ——————————-

The big political / PR war continues in the effort to force Israel into a ceasefire. Western military and in particular US military assets continue to pour into the region.

***
Latest check on the USS Eisenhower CSG indicates that they are about a day out from the Straits of Gibraltar, thus could be at least 4 - 5 more days from the eastern Med. It is still expected to transit the Suez canal to join CENTOM forces in the Persian Gulf region.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Hamas et al still manages a few rocket barrages while the IAF continues to strike Hamas facilities, ammo dumps and underground networks. One large ammo dump was hit yesterday that was adjacent to a hospital - numerous large secondary explosions were noted.

Large recon in force overnight that was closer to a raid hit many Hamas positions before withdrawing.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued harassing fire from Hezbollah and retaliatory IDF fire. The number of Hezbollah members killed in Israeli army strikes in southern Lebanon amid the Gaza war reaches an estimated 45

***
Fires are still consuming large forest areas at the border in “Al-Labouneh,” south of Naqoura, due to the incendiary ammunition bombing and light shells that the Israeli army dropped yesterday evening. From time to time, the sounds of explosions of mines from leftovers are heard.

NOTE - Arabs claim these incendiaries are targeting civilians. The fact of the matter is they are being used to ignite brush fires along the border to deny Hezbollah forces camouflage / concealment to prevent infiltration attempts.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

The military base of the American forces was targeted in the town of Al-Shaddadi in the Hasakah countryside. The base was attacked with mortar shells by unknown armed groups.

Syrian media: 5 missiles targeted an American base and its surroundings in the Hasakah countryside in NE Syria. Reports of another attack on U.S Forces at the Abu Hajar Airport in Northeastern Syria.

WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli army says troops have arrested some 1,000 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 660 affiliated with Hamas, since the war began on Oct. 7. Overnight, 46 Hamas members were detained

NOTE - Some may wonder why so much activity in the West Bank. I’ve noted for many months that Hamas has been growing its base in the West Bank due to the impending new leadership elections. Current leader, Abbas, is losing support to these more radical sections and things threaten to blow up as they did in Gaza in 2008 with a civil war - on that resulted in Hamas rule. The Palestine authority in the West Bank was trying to avoid such a repeat of history. Contrary to arab propaganda, moslems in the West Bank have had considerable freedom to work in Israel and the region in general was relatively prosperous and generally stable. Only with the onset of elections have Hamas accelerated its efforts to gain a foothold.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The French Navy has announced that the FS Tonnerre (L-9014) a Mistral-Class amphibious assault ship is currently being deployed to the Eastern Mediterranean in order to link-up with NATO Naval Forces including the Carrier Strike Group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) off the coast of Israel; this deployment follows an announcement earlier today by French President Macron that France will be sending a Hospital Ship to the region to assist residents of the Gaza Strip.

***
The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister meets with the political leadership of Hamas in Doha and discusses with them the fate of the detainees

***
Iran’s IRGC chief commander says if Israel engages in ground operation “the dragon of Gaza will devour them. If they set foot in Gaza, they’ll be buried there. They have no other way… Gaza is the staff of the Moses that will devour the Pharaohs if they enter on the ground”

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Reset the clock on when the ground invasion into Gaza kicks off. Israel has set a date - probably based on US estimates of how quickly they can get air defense assets deployed across the middle east.

How hard and fast that date is, is uncertain. However, I think it is pretty firm. In the meantime, I expect the IAF to continue to target key Hamas locations and known tunnel areas while IDF launches more raids like last night - both to prepare the battlefield for invasion.

The delay is likely to be a matter of weeks - given how large of a deployment is required. Until then most likely a continuation of the past few days.

Hamas will use the delay to further its propaganda campaign and dribble out a couple of hostages at a time as a way of trying to show themselves somehow as the ‘good’ guys.

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.

Armenia/Azerbaijan –

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said he sees no advantage in the continued presence of Russian military bases in Armenia, the Wall Street Journal reported.
He also told the newspaper that Yerevan is looking for new partners because Moscow, he claimed, “has failed to fulfill its allied commitments”.

OBSERVATION - Russia left them hanging out cold and this resulted in ethic cleansing of Armenian Christians in the Ndagermo-Karmach territory.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Germany’s APOLLO NEWS here reports that soccer club VfL Osnabrück is now “penalizing its employees with climate fines.”

“Based on an individual CO₂ footprint calculated by the club, deductions are made from their salaries as a penalty for climate-unfriendly behavior,” reports the German site

As it’s probably a dream of many people to be employed by a professional sports team, the club will probably get away with it. Unhappy employees can be easily replaced.

But in the current environment of a severe skilled workers shortage, other companies may be extremely hesitant to enact such a draconian and personally intrusive policy. It also likely violates German labor law. In any case, VfL Osnabrück does show just how loony the climate craze is getting.

According to the APOLLO site: “The soccer club calculates the amount of salary that is deducted based on things like how far its employees travel to work or how much meat they consume.”

According to the VfL Osnabrück site: “Common good clause: VfL employees compensate for professional CO₂ emissions.”

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/10/27/germany-employer-now-docking-wages-of-employees-who-eat-meat-drive-autos/

OBSERVATION - Not sure how they guesstimate how much employees eat or use, but probably a blanket amount. This is but a precursor to what the WEF and its overlords want for the general sheeple - all controlled by a programmable, digital currency powered by AI / quantum computing.

Economy –

The US economy reportedly grew 4.9% in the third quarter. Problem is nearly all sectors of the economy do not reflect such robust growth.

Price increases accelerated and Americans’ real disposable personal income (DPI) and savings rate fell, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Thursday in its initial (“advance”) estimate.

Adjusted for inflation, “Real” GDP increased at a 4.9% annual rate in the third quarter, after rising 2.1% in the second quarter. In current dollars, GDP rose 8.5% ($560.5 billion) in the third quarter to a level of $27.62 trillion, up from the previous quarter’s 3.8% ($249.4 billion) gain.

Disposable personal income (DPI) increased only 1.9%, just a third of its 6.1% second-quarter growth.

Since prices rose faster than income, real disposable personal income actually decreased 1.0% in the third quarter, after rising 3.5% in the second quarter.
The personal saving rate - personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income - fell from 5.2% to 3.8%.

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/gdp-rises-q3-real-personal-disposable-income-and-savings-rate-fall-bea-reports

OBSERVATION - Not quite the good news biden wants you to believe.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

UC Berkeley is offering extra credit points to students for taking part in an anti-Israel protest.

OBSERVATION - Berkeley is but one of many colleges and universities beating the pro-Hamas, anti-Israel drums across America. Home base to Antifa and affiliated leftists / anarchists this is not surprising as it again affirms that these institutions are not for education but indoctrination.

***
IN RELATED, I expect to see a full slate of pro-Hamas protests across the country this weekend, many anchored in / around colleges and universities. Expect that some will use the traffic blocking terror tactics - especially in those Antifa et al strongholds.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.

The Maine shooter was (as always) known to law enforcement, previously committed to a mental institution and prohibited from owning firearms. The search for him has entered the second day. Relatives reportedly texting him to surrender and turn himself in.

OBSERVATION - A lot of his background - except for the parts that fit the liberal narrative - are scarce on the interwebs.

***
Yousra Fazili serves as Chief of Staff for the Pentagon Comptroller. She had also worked for a Qatari diplomat. Qatar is a state sponsor of Hamas. And Hamas is an arm of the Muslim Brotherhood. From her position in the Pentagon she is promoting the propaganda of Hamas in the current conflict. Islamic penetration into all facets of our govt and military are being exposed by this war.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Pentagon confirms that 900 US troops have deployed or are deploying to the Middle East. These troops will not be going to Israel, but are designed “to support regional deterrence efforts…”
Pentagon adds that many of these troops are air defense related.

***
Amphibious warships USS Bataan (LHD-5) and USS Carter Hall are in the Gulf of Aden approaching the Red Sea as of Thursday, Navy officials confirmed to USNI News. The other ship in the three-ship Bataan Amphibious Ready Group, USS Mesa Verde (LPD-19) has been operating in the Eastern Mediterranean since last week.

Meanwhile the USS Eisenhower CSG is approaching the Mediterranean and is still expected to travel through it to the Suez Canal to the Middle East to operate in U.S. 5th Fleet.

***
Large swaths of the National Security Agency, the agency in charge of collecting foreign signals intelligence for the Department of Defense, went from normal shifts to 24 hour watches earlier this month amid preparation for Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza, two sources told Breitbart News.
The staffing change, which occurred the first weekend after the October 7 terrorist attacks in Southern Israel by Hamas, was to support Israel as they prepared to invade Gaza, but also to monitor threats against U.S. forces in the region.

OBSERVATION - Well, no DUh. As a one time cog in the NSA collection apparatus I’m surprised that the NSA had anything OTHER than 24/7/365 operations today. “Normal shifts” LOL, what a bunch of day beggars.

***
The U.S. Air Force has activated two detachments at Robins Air Force Base in Georgia dedicated to electronic warfare and its future applications.
The green light, given Oct. 25 at a ceremony inside an aviation museum, marks a step toward the realization of the 950th Spectrum Warfare Group, tasked with assessing the effectiveness of electronic warfare across dozens of aircraft while improving jamming and spoofing capabilities in large military exercises.

OBSERVATION - In an increasingly technological based world and weapons systems, counter measures become even more critical. Stealth is not enough by itself any more because the electronic signatures of those aircraft with their networking with other aircraft are extremely vulnerable to countermeasures.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

After a 7 month review by his university, Mark Skidmore, was exonerated of all charges and his new, improved paper was published in a more credible peer-reviewed journal.

Michigan State University Professor Mark Skidmore was exonerated of all ethics charges after a 7-month investigation. His paper was revised and was reinstated in the peer-reviewed literature. It revealed that over 250,000 people were killed by the COVID vaccine. Others have found similar numbers.

OBSERVATION - The truth continues to come out, and our govt/Fauci was well aware of these numbers and actively worked to suppress them.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Very disturbing reports if true that Mark Meadows worked for the FBI as an informant and wore a wire to record all conversations with President Trump, while he was the Chief of Staff to him.

OBSERVATION - This is unbelievable if true. Shows the depth of compromise and control the deep state has in DC.

***
With a new Speaker of the House, committees fired up and have already put forth 5 of the 12 appropriations bills necessary to prevent govt shut down. Vast turn around from McCarthy’s muddle everything up to the last minute and pass an omnibus bill or uncontrolled extension.

Biden / Harris Watch –

The morning after a horrific mass shooting from an apparently mentally-ill man in Maine, Darth Kamala is out here using the situation to endorse a nationwide gun ban à la Australia. She says this gesturing to the Australian Prime Minister who just so happens to be visiting the White House.

In the ‘90s, Australia confiscated 650,000 guns in what they euphemistically called a “buy back” program. And that’s EXACTLY what Kamala Harris is asking for here.

Australia only has a population of 26 million people, mostly homogenous, spread out across an entire continent. If you look at mass murder sprees, the gun ban did absolutely nothing to change them because people can use anything as a weapon. Like most western countries between 2000 and 2020, the murder rate went down, but they traded in their guns for safety and now have total tyranny.

https://notthebee.com/article/kamala-harris-is-out-here-endorsing-an-australian-style-gun-ban-after-the-shooting-in-maine-last-night

OBSERVATION - The left will press for ‘gun control’ but until they can seize both houses of congress and the WH, their schemes will be left on hold. The House will not capitulate to any form of gun control or ‘buy backs’. We have a mental health problem - not a gun problem.

Illegal Immigration –

This is not a Babylon Bee article! Sanctuary city prime, NYC is offering illegals a free ticket to anywhere, as long as he never sees their faces again.

Meanwhile, for those who turn down the free airline ticket offer, New York City officials are discussing handing out tents to newly arrived migrants and housing them in encampments in parks, according to a report. The city has already erected large tents to shelter asylum seekers but this new proposal would be more like a campsite, sources told The Wall Street Journal.

The report comes after Mayor Eric Adams yesterday said ‘everything is on the table’ when asked whether his plans to shelter migrants would extend to Manhattan’s iconic Central Park.
Adams has said the city has run out of hotel rooms and indoor sites to house the 65,000 migrants that remain in its care after 120,000 arrived in the last 18 months.

OBSERVATION - Now multiply this dilemma thousands of times over and it becomes very apparent that one of the goals of this unrestricted border invasion is to crash our very generous social welfare system and provide new foot soldiers for any leftist uprising.

China –

The death of a leader in China can usher in big changes, it did after Mao Zedong, or can lead to political upheaval, like it did when grieving for Hu Yaobang morphed into the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.

For this reason, the passing of former premier Li Keqiang has already triggered various measures to ensure that stability is maintained.

A crackdown on VPN use is underway to reduce the access of Chinese citizens to the parts of the internet not controlled by the Communist Party.
The Party doesn’t want mourning for a popular, liberal, former number two leader to generate wider criticism of the current administration, led by Xi Jinping.

It is not just that Li died so suddenly, suffering a heart attack just months after stepping down, but because of what he represented: a way of potentially governing China with different priorities to those of the General Secretary Xi.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-67236049

OBSERVATION - Reflects uncertainty by Xi as to public confidence in his leadership.

North/South Korea –

SK and US forces exercised a response to a hypothetical Hamas-style attack by NK.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

*****

The Russian army is abandoning the BTG (Battalion Task Group) concept. In February 2022 one of the surprising developments was the failure of the BTG system. Russia had expanded the use of BTGs since the 1980s because BTGs had consistently proved successful in many small wars, including the rather large operation in Afghanistan during the 1980s.

Systems like the BTG began to appear during World War II when it was found that forming temporary task forces containing tank and infantry units were more effective. The Germans did the same thing, calling them battle groups (Kampfgruppen) and the Americans adopted the practice after World War II. There was an important difference between the Western battle groups and the current BTGs. The Western battle groups were kept simple (mainly infantry and tank companies) with the addition of combat engineers or artillery as needed. American infantry officers got lots of realistic training using these battle groups. Western armies had many career NCOs to make sure the troops performed well.

Russia expanded their BTGs after 2000 and added more support units so that each BTG had most of the support capabilities usually found in a division. These support units were smaller in the BTG, often a dozen or so specialists riding in a few trucks. The BTG commander put an officer in charge of all these non-combat support troops and the dozens of trucks they traveled in. The combat element of a BTG always consisted of a few hundred infantry and ten or twenty tanks. But now there were small (platoon sized) detachments of specialists. The only ones that were always present were a dozen or so self-propelled 152mm guns and somewhat more 82mm and 120mm mortars. There was also a medical detachment. In the last decade a detachment of fire control troops was added to coordinate all that firepower with some UAVs to scout for targets. There were also a small number of self-propelled anti-aircraft weapons in addition to the portable anti-aircraft missiles carried by individual soldiers. There were several other specialist units that could be added as needed. Total strength of a BTG varied depending on how it was assembled. Official personnel strength varied from 600 to 800 personnel but was more like 300-500 in peacetime.

These new BTGs became the standard for Russian divisions, which now consisted of two or three brigades. Each of these usually had just two BTGs. The division had fewer support units because most of these troops were now assigned to BTGs or brigades. By 2021 there were 170 BTGs. The combat elements usually consisted of one tank company, two or three infantry companies and one or two batteries of artillery. While BTGs had some contract (volunteer) troops, most of the rest of the BTG personnel were conscripts. The conscripts had several shortcomings. They could not be used in a combat zone; their term of service was only one year, and they were not as well trained as the contract troops (or trained at all). By law conscripts were not allowed in a combat zone unless it was wartime, and they were defending Russia.

This massive adoption of BTGs was a mistake that became obvious when nearly half the available BTGs were sent into Ukraine in early 2022. Many newly formed BTGs were sent to the Ukrainian border in late 2021 to threaten Ukraine and if that did not work, to invade.

The flaw in the BTGs was not obvious until they encountered well-armed and motivated opponents. That happened soon after they crossed the border into Ukraine. The leadership in these BTGs simply could not handle the complex composition of BTGs. Senior Russian leaders knew this from the performance of BTG leaders during military exercises. This was not a surprise as the quality of officers had declined in the last decade and there were still not enough experienced NCOs.

More analysis at link
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htmurph/articles/20231027.aspx

Additional note - Most Russian units are far more ad hoc as the officer corps have been decimated since Feb 2022 and most are understrength in both men and equipment.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Reports that two ATACMS missiles hit at least, three S-400 air defense systems and were destroyed. Russia tried to claim they shot the missiles down by showing images of the rear third of the rocket. However, that is commonly all that remains of the cluster munitions versions after bomblet dispersion. Videos of the strikes aftermath show considerable flames and secondary explosions.

The Russia Black Sea fleet suffered apparent another loss yesterday that the anti-mine ship “Vladimir Kozitsky” was blown up in Sevastopol. According to local residents, the ship suddenly exploded in the outer roadstead of Sevastopol Bay. Smoke was reported coming from the engine room.

Russians continue to push against the Avdiivka, making gains on the northern margin. Reports that Russia has committed the local operational reserve forces to try to obtain more momentum.

Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.

Tokmak Axis -.
Explosions were reported in Tokmak from an apparent Ukrainian strike on a Russian ammo/logistical site.

Avdiivka Front -
Russia continues to throw more reserves into the fight to try to retain terrain recently captured.

OUTLOOK -
The battle for Avdiivka is starting to overshadow Ukraines offensive actions in Tokmok and Bakhmut sectors. Reports indicate that Russia is scraping the front line to supply even more units for this fight. This fight will go on for weeks.

However, in reassigning units, Russia potentially opens itself up for breakthroughs on the Tokmok, Bakhmut or Kherson fronts.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

Major raid into Gaza
Major operation in the West Bank.

GENERAL ——————————-

A lot of propaganda / RUMINT that Israel will be using nerve agents in the Hamas tunnels - tune it out as BS.

Also numerous videos out there claiming to show US marines off loading from aircraft into Israel - again false reporting as the videos are from US Army (not marines0 and deplaning in Europe a couple years ago. This is just some of the crap that continually flows across the Gaza / Israel war feeds and makes it frustrating to sort out the legit from the BS.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

The IDF’s 36th division conducted another large raid into Gaza and returned upon its completion. -Israeli Army Radio. The area targeted was reportedly the Shujayyah area. Shujayyah is known to host a high number of Hamas tunnels and military positions.
NOTE - This was larger than the previous raid, indicating things are building towards an eventual offensive into Gaza.

Hamas et al launched a number of rocket barrages towards central Israel overnight causing some minor damage. IAF continued to hammer Hamas related sites across Gaza, claiming to have killed several more key leaders.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

More os the same, harassment fire from Hezbollah and counter fire from Israel.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

See “Syria” section below regarding attacks/counter attacks by Iranian proxy militias in eastern Syria in response to the Gaza war.

WEST BANK——————————-

A force of over 100 IDF armored vehicles including a number of Caterpillar D9 Armored-Bulldozers have reportedly entered the City of Jenin in the West Bank in what appears to be a large-scale raid for the arrest of Hamas and PIJ Members. Fierce fighting reported.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Reports of a missile impact in the Egyptian town of Taba, close to the far south Israeli border, near the Israeli town of Eliat on the Gulf of Aqaba. At least five injured in the fall, according to this report.

According to the Egyptian army, the explosion in Taba was caused by an unidentified drone. In Nueva it is not yet clear exactly what happened.

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari: “In the last few hours, an aerial threat was detected in the Red Sea. Fighter jets were scrambled to the threat and the issue is under investigation. To our understanding, the impact that was in Egypt originates from this threat. Israel will work together with Egypt and the US and tighten the defense against threats from the Red Sea area.”

Based on the IDF statement, it appears that the leading candidate for whatever hit the town was fired by Houthi rebels from Yemen.

Multiple local sources suggest that a second projectile impacted the Red Sea town of Nuweiba, in Sinai. This follows an impact in Taba.

OBSERVATION - Two strikes in the same region most likely affiliated with Houthi, and not a misdirected Hamas rocket. Debris from the device will shed light on if it was a drone/cruise missile or a ballistic missile. Egypt has stated it reserves the right to respond to the perpetrators.
Years ago when the Saudi/Houthi fight was hot and heavy, the Houthi made long range threats on Israeli targets in this area. It hosts an Israeli naval base, giving access to the Red Sea via the Gulf of Aqaba.

***
Hamas leaders held meetings with the Russian Foreign Ministry and not with the presidency yesterday.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - These large military raids into Gaza will continue until the actual ground assault kicks off. They server multiple purposes. First is to recon and gauge Hamas positions and responses. Second, they give commanders practical experience on what will be happening when the initial assaults begin, giving them ground reality. Third, working out any bugs in command and control. Forth, these raids are large enough to keep Hamas et al on edge, with a degree of uncertainty if they are only a raid or the initiation of a full blown assault. Will can also lull them into a false sense of security thinking that the full assault is nothing but a big raid.

Depending on the tempo of the deployment of air defense assets, limited to a degree by available cargo capacity, my guess is that the invasion is now going to kick off around November 13th - during a new moon. This gives Israel an advantage with night vision capabilities over Hamas. This also gives the US two weeks to complete its military deployments of air defense as well as positioning the USS Eisenhower CSG into position in the Arabian Sea region.

Iran –

Iran announced “The start of large-scale maneuvers for all ground forces formations tomorrow. (Friday)”

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian issued an abrupt warning at the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday, declaring that the U.S. would “not be spared from this fire” if Israel continues to retaliate against Islamic terrorist group Hamas in the Gaza Strip

“I say frankly to the American statesmen, who are now managing the genocide in Palestine, that we do not welcome [an] expansion of the war in the region. But if the genocide in Gaza continues, they will not be spared from this fire,” he told a meeting at the 193-member General Assembly.

OBSERVATION - Pretty well an open secret that Iran has sleeper cells, probably composed of their own IRGC or Hezbollah/Hamas affiliated individuals in the US, most likely facilitated in recent years by the biden no border policy.

Iraq -

Iranian backed militias continue to pose a threat to US forces in the nation.

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Saudi Arabia –

After initially being very vocal, SA has quieted down considerably.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.

US now says 19 attacks have been carried out vs US troops since October 17 - with 3 new attacks yesterday. In response, US F-16s struck a weapons storage facility & a ammunition storage facility in AbuKamal Syria used by the IRGC & Iran-linked groups, per a senior military official.

Reports IRGC backed militias have attacked coalition assets at the camp near the Koniko gas field with rockets again tonight. No reports yet on any casualties.

More reports of attacks on coalition assets in the region, another drone attack now reported tonight at the nearby Al-Omar oilfield. No reports on casualties.

RGC backed militias have reportedly launched another drone attack against U.S assets at the Harir airbase in Erbil. No details on any casualties as yet. The number of attacks in Iraq/Syria now in October is fast approaching 20, some causing minor damage and casualties.

Two explosions were heard at the international coalition base at the Conoco gas plant in northeastern Deirezzor, with alarm sirens being activated at the base.

OBSERVATION - What the US calls “restraint” so far by US forces is viewed in the moslem world as weakness and only prods them to conduct more attacks. If you’ve followed my posts, Iran for months now has been working on a plan with Russia to force US forces out of eastern Syria and western Iraq, so these militias are well prepared for an extended operation. The two airstrikes are grossly insufficient to put fear back into these militias.

Venezuela -

Venezuelan National Assembly to conduct a popular referendum on defending Venezuela’s claim of the Essequibo, Guyana. Both the OAS and CARICOM communities condemn the Venezuelan referendum and CARICOM warns the referendum result could be used to justify the annexation of the territory

“We condemn any act that constitutes a breach of peace and an attempt to encroach on a country’s sovereign borders. This is an irrefutable violation of Guyana’s territorial rights and we support CARICO Morg’s statement.”

OBSERVATION - The Essequibo region is somewhere in the neighborhood of half the total area of Guyana. Not sure the current capability of the Venezuelan army , but it is still likely more than able to invade into the region and seize it. Interesting that this movement towards annexation follows the announcement of a treaty of sorts with the US over its oil production.

Economy –

The cost of goods and services rose 0.4 percent for a second consecutive month in September, challenging the view that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are still bringing down inflation.

Over the past year, the index is up 3.4 percent. That is unchanged from the August reading, data from the Commerce Department showed Friday. The Federal Reserve says it wants to bring PCE inflation down to two percent, a rate not seen since President Joe Biden took office in early 2021.

The persistence of inflation at the current level casts doubt on the Fed’s claims that the series of rate hikes from March 2022 through July of 2023 are still pulling down inflation. On Thursday, the Commerce Department said the economy grew at an annual pace of 4.9 percent, much faster than expected. That rate of growth is likely inconsistent with falling inflation or the claim that the stance of monetary policy is significantly restrictive.

The increase in inflation is unlikely to force Fed officials to raise interest rates at their monetary policy meeting next week. Officials have signaled that they are likely to keep rates unchanged at the 5.25 to 5.50 percent range set back in July. If inflation continues at this rate, however, it could put pressure on the Fed to raise its benchmark target at the following meeting in December.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2023/10/27/prices-rise-more-than-expected-as-inflations-grip-on-economy-persists/

OBSERVATION - Good news, if any is the reluctance to jack the prime rate higher based on this report. Bad news is that this inflation rate is so skewed that it doesn’t really capture the realities consumers are facing.

***
(Bloomberg) — Oil surged the most in two weeks after Israel’s military said it was “expanding ground activity” in Gaza this evening, reviving concerns about the conflict spreading more broadly.

The announcement from the Israeli Defense Forces pushed West Texas Intermediate to settle above $85 a barrel after a volatile session that saw prices whipsawed by developments in the Middle East conflict.

OBSERVATION - One of Iran’s potential tools in a fight against the US and the west is the threat of closing off the Strait of Hormuz to oil traffic. Minimal seaborne assets combined with shore based anti-ship missiles would succeed in closing it off for a period of time. This fight will not be as the last one because Iran has increased both the quality and quantity of its weapons systems and tactics, making any operation by the US/allied navies more difficult. Even short term disruptions in today’s shaky global economy could bring serious results.

***
The U.S. has stopped issuing export licenses for most civilian firearms and ammunition for 90 days for all non-governmental users, the Commerce Department said on Friday, citing national security and foreign policy interests.

The Commerce Department did not provide further details for the pause, which also includes shotguns and optical sights, but said an urgent review will assess the “risk of firearms being diverted to entities or activities that promote regional instability, violate human rights, or fuel criminal activities.”
The Commerce Department declined to comment beyond the posting on its website.

The halt covers most of the guns and ammunition that could be purchased in a U.S. gun store, said Johanna Reeves, a lawyer who specializes in export controls and firearms with the law firm Reeves & Dola in Washington.
Reeves said she had not seen the Commerce Department take such a sweeping action like this before. “For sure they have individual country policies – but nothing like this,” she said.

OBSERVATION - This news item is difficult to categorize as it currently ONLY effects export of US made guns and ammo. Concerning is the statement “The halt covers most of the guns and ammunition that could be purchased in a U.S. gun store,”. Such halts in overseas sales is constitutional, but could this be a precursor to an effort here to stop sales domestically? Needs to be watched closely.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

The latest action in Gaza is certain to enlarge the number and attendance of protests this weekend as well as potential for associated violence. With a definite link to potential terrorism, OSINT observers have noted an increase in the calls for action in the leftist / Antifa community. These calls to action are increasingly containing violence. Several dozen announced protests are on tap across the country.

***
Diversion of all ammo produced by Lake to military use has driven shortages and price spikes in 5.56 ammo across the country. This diversion hits 30% of the 5.56 ammo supplies on the market. Instability and uncertainty fallout from the Gaza war has also started increases in gun and ammo sales nationwide as well.

***
The man behind the Harvard truck that drives around displaying the names of “antisemites,” had his house raided by a SWAT team.
Hamas supporters really don’t like it when you call them out.
Adam Guillette, the man behind the truck, revealed that cops searched his home at 1:30 am on Friday.
Someone had falsely called the police claiming Guillette was holding a gun to his wife’s head.

OBSERVATION - SWATTING has become a terror tactic used by the left that has cost innocent lives in the past.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.

Maine mass shooting suspect Robert Card found dead. CNN reports Maine mass shooting suspect Robert Card was found dead with a self inflicted gunshot wound. Card was found dead near a recycling facility that he was recently fired from, according to CNN’s John Miller.

OBSERVATION - No real ‘manifesto’, though there is an unpublished letter to his son. One crazed gunman, not a traditional terrorist.

However, it does speak to the craziness that lone wolf attacks by religiously driven islamic terrorists who see their death as a means to an entry to paradise CAN cause. Imagine this scene playing out dozens of times over across the country. The level of panic would be enormous. And it would be low cost and hard to preempt.

***
A new report from the Program on Extremism at George Washington University (GWU) details how Hamas has had an extensive support network operating in the United States for decades, with many “core activists” still engaged in “various forms of support.”

The report, published Oct. 13 and authored by Director of the Program on Extremism Lorenzo Vidino, explains how individuals and networks providing “fundraising, lobbying, education, and propaganda dissemination” for Hamas have been in the U.S. since the 1980s, according to internal Hamas documents and FBI wiretaps that have been used as evidence in federal court cases.

https://www.christianpost.com/news/new-report-details-hamas-support-network-in-us-extending-decades.html

OBSERVATION - Key word here is “support”. Those who study low intensity conflict scenarios will recognize that the ‘teeth’ of an insurgent operation are relatively small, but the ‘tail’ of such organizations is large. The ability to support and possibly more importantly, hide, the fighters is critical to mitigate any counter terror operation the govt may initiate. The expansive moslem communities that have been imported into the US over the past decade provide a vast sea of such support. The depth of that support has been demonstrated over the past few weeks by the large, pro-Hamas rallies. Combined with the strong likelihood of Hama/Hezbollah et al terror teams crossing our open southern border, and you have the mix for a well supported, domestic islamic terror threat.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

A senior Pentagon official: The aircraft carrier Eisenhower will cross the Strait of Hormuz and be stationed in the waters of the Gulf upon its arrival.

OBSERVATION - This is not the smartest tactic at this juncture. Placing the Ike in the Persian Gulf will critically limit its movement and place it within range of a plethora of Iranian assets. It is almost like the DoD WANTS Iran to sink the carrier. And Iran will try - even if the US counterstrike levels the country.

***
USS REAGAN CVN76 with cruisers ANTIETAM CG54 and ROBERT SMALLS CG62 are arriving at Manila, Philippines.

OBSERVATION - Some speculate that this is due in part to the aftermath of the 22 October “bumping” incidents between Chinese and Philippines ships and US statement of support issued 27 Oct. US reiterated that it would defend Philippine against China.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Countdown once again to govt shutdown. The new speaker continues to get the spending bills necessary through in short order.

Biden / Harris Watch –

All hell breaks out around the world and biden is off to his Delaware retreat for ANOTHER vacation. Biden has spent 392 days — almost 39% of his presidency — on vacation.

China –

The People’s Liberation Army Navy carrier CNS Shandong (17) on Thursday deployed into the western Pacific for the third time this year. On Thursday, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense issued a brief release along with a photograph, stating that the Shandong carrier formation had passed through the Bashi Channel and entered the western Pacific, and that its military was monitoring the PLAN carrier. The release did not identify which PLAN ships were with Shandong. This is Shandong’s third deployment to the western Pacific. Its initial deployment in April saw it operate 19 days in the Philippine Sea, followed by a five-day deployment the Philippine Sea followed.

OBSERVATION - China has increased the tempo of deployments of its three aircraft carriers. Currently, their systems are fairly limited to regional efforts, but at that are more than capable of helping to enforce any blockade of Taiwan, should China decide to take that step.

North/South Korea –

“World War III is about to begin. Everyone should be ready!” Kim Jong-un said.
He stated that due to the escalation in the Middle East, the “flames of war” may spread to other regions of the world.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

*****

Russia appears to have paused its air-launched cruise missile strikes against Ukraine. Russia’s Long Range Aviation hasn’t conducted air-launched cruise missile attacks against Ukraine for over a month, one of the longest gaps in such strikes since the full-scale invasion began, the ministry reported on Oct. 27.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
Colonel General Afzalov officially became the new commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces instead of Surovikin, the website of the Russian Ministry of Defense reports.

Economic Impact –
The Bank of Russia raised the key rate by 200 bp, to 15%.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relatively slow night for ADA - Ukrainian air defense shot down 3 Iskander missiles over Dnipropetrovsk region overnight. Meanwhile near the Romanian border, explosions were reported in Izmail district - likely in the port area.

Russians continue to push against the Avdiivka, some estimates of over 4000 dead Russians with probably three times that wounded over the past couple weeks.

Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

Israel unleashed a new level of hell on Gaza overnight.

Global anti-Israel protests kicked off.

GENERAL ——————————-

In a briefing for reporters of international media outlets, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says the Hamas terror group’s main base of operations is under Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.

Hagari says that Hamas has several underground complexes under Shifa — the largest hospital in the Gaza Strip — which are used by the terror group’s leaders to direct attacks against Israel.

OBSERVATION - The use of such facilities by Hamas and Hezbollah in the past is very well documented. They commonly place military facilities and rocket launching sites next to schools, hospitals, residential areas, etc - utilizing human shields as a means to deter strikes to take such facilities out. So the revelations of Hamas use of Shifa Hospital should not surprise the informed. By their placement under the hospital, they are committing a massive war crime and strips away any formal protection of the hospital.

***
UN called for a cease fire to allow ‘humanitarian’ aid to Gaza. Pro-Hamas protests around the world called for the same.

***
Israeli and Egyptian combat aircraft are both reported airborne over the Gulf of Aqaba in the Northern Red Sea. It was also reported that the IAF shot down a probable Houthi drone yesterday as well.

***
Hamas official tells the Financial Times the organization ‘did not expect this much of a response from America’ after the 7th of October attack, adding ‘what we are seeing now is the entrance of the US into the battle, and this we didn’t count on’.
NOTE - This may account for Hezbollah hesitancy to immediately jump into the fray. The biden anti-Israeli positions and policies supported the assumption by Hamas. The US response clearly changed the dynamics.

***
A Hamas official reportedly offered to release all hostages in exchange for all Hamas terrorists being released from Israeli jails.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Overnight Israel launched a three pronged ‘incursion’ into N Gaza, the link below is a map depicting the locations.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9eujj7XkAAt5fo.jpg

The attacks penetrated into Gaza via two in the north and a third along the Wadi Gaza Nature Reserve & the Wadi. The incursions involved thousands of soldiers and was backed by a level of artillery and air support that some observers say was the largest since the Oct 7th massacre.

The IDF struck anti-tank missile launch sites, command and control centers and Hamas operatives, according to the IDF. The Israeli military said this is an expanded raid, not the anticipated large scale ground operation.

According to the Israel Defense Force, over 150 Underground Targets were Destroyed last night in the Gaza Strip by Israeli Aircraft using High-Impact “Bunker Busting” Munitions, while an IDF Military Officer stated, “We are using Fire that has never been seen before in the Gaza Strip. From the Air, from the Ground or from the Underground

IDF infantry, combat engineering forces and tanks still remain inside the Gaza Strip at this hour.

The Israel Defense Forces on Friday said the Hamas terror group’s main base of operations is under Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, providing visuals and intercepted audio as evidence of the terror organization’s activities.

Inspire of last nights action, Hamas was able to get a few rocket barrages fired that were mostly ineffective.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF says it struck a Hezbollah site in southern Lebanon overnight, in response to rocket fire on Israel yesterday, which landed in Syria.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Nothing significant to report. All eyes on Hezbollah and Iran for their response to last nights enlarged Israeli “raid” into Gaza.

WEST BANK——————————-

A large IDF force continues to operate in the West Bank to arrest/neutralize Hamas and affiliated terror groups.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has warned that fighting between Israel and Hamas, which is on the brink of dragging other countries in the region, could disrupt Middle East oil supplies to international markets.

The crisis would “impact global security, escalate regional conflict, jeopardize energy supplies, exacerbate economic crises and invite further conflicts,” al-Sudani said at a peace summit in Cairo

Analysts have been worrying about the possibility that Arab countries could cut off oil exports to the West in retaliation for the much publicized and anticipated Israeli ground offensive into Gaza, which was reportedly favored by President Joe Biden during his seven-hour visit in Tel-Aviv last week. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian roiled energy markets on Oct. 18 when he called for Muslim countries to enforce an “immediate and complete” oil embargo on Israel. It is important to note that Hamas is backed by Iran, the world’s eighth-largest oil producer. Tehran can greatly disrupt markets even without backing from other major exporters for an embargo.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel definitely kicked things up a couple notches overnight. This action is about as close as one can get to the promised whole blown ground invasion. My assessment from yesterday needs to be adjusted to a full invasion in less than a week, perhaps only days once again. Until then, other aggressive ‘raids’ like last night are in the forecast.

Some have called the action a “rolling start” to the invasion. Israeli units have not pulled back as in previous operations. In spite of Hamas propaganda that essentially claimed 6 ATGMs destroyed 30 Israeli tanks, the fierceness of the Israeli action indicates otherwise.

All eyes are now on Hezbollah and Iran as this ‘expanded’ raid clearly crossed its red line of no Israeli boots in Gaza. Last nights action triggered large protests in many places across the world. Violence so far has been limited, but is anticipated to increase as the operation continues.

I believe I said it before, the current situation is highly fluid and can change very quickly, as we saw from last night.

Iran –

Monitoring for response to last night’s action in Gaza - see above.

Iraq -

Iranian backed militias continue to pose a threat to US forces in the nation.

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.

Overnight the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (a front for Iranian-backed militias) claimed it carried out an attack against the US base of al-Tanf, in southern Syria

Sooooo much out there, that I’m having to put the front burner items here. I’m monitoring the other areas but the whole Gaza war and related are swamping the feeders and currently have a very great potential to impact the US in multiple ways. Key are CW2 related protests/violence as well as any US military involvement. Economic factors are also in play. Simply a ton of things have hit the fan this month - with the October surprise being a Gaza war.

Globalism / Great Reset –

WEF-funded Johns Hopkins professor Jules Gill-Peterson has urged governments to remove the stigma around supporting child “sex work” by starting a “mass movement” to turn the tide of “moral panic” over the idea.

OBSERVATION - From Epstine on, those associated with globalists have this overwhelming desire to pervert children. It’s nothing more than an attempt to normalize child abuse in the name of adult sexual desire. It’s disgusting, it’s vile, and it’s hard to even begin to grasp the consequences of such depravity.
This is but one facet of the attack on our children, in that it goes along with the demonic push to transgender mutilate them, confuse their sexual development by gay/lesbian elements, vaccinate with unnecessary wuhan jabs that do far more harm than good, etc.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

As in the 2020 BLM-Antifa riots, pro-Palestine demonstrators are blocking the road in Manhattan and aggressively confronting drivers.

OBSERVATION - I’ve warned about their protests expanding to use this tactic. Be alert in your areas for protests and potential road block assaults.

***
Follow up on the unexpected ban of overseas sales of US made arms, ammo and related. Key items have raised new RED FLAGS to me. Reuters The Commerce Department did not provide further details for the 90 day pause, which also includes shotguns and optical sights, but said an urgent review will assess the “risk of firearms being diverted to entities or activities that promote regional instability, violate human rights, or fuel criminal activities.”

Critical concern, they may try to fashion this ‘risk’ and carry it over to domestic sales claiming individuals via straw purchases or other actions are arming to promote instability or promote criminal activity here in the US. The regime has over the past three years used many back door measures to attack constitutional rights. A ban via the Commerce department may be such an attempt to work around - short of declaring a national ‘emergency’ or martial law.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) CSG has entered the Western Mediterranean via the Strait of Gibraltar.

USS Hershel Woody Williams ESB4 also passed thru the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean suspected of heading to join the USS Ford CSG or follow the Ike into the Arabian Sea region. It is a Lewis B. Puller-class expeditionary mobile base.

***
The massive airlift continues with a 24 hours snapshot of US and allied transport aircraft from CONUS to eastern Med/CENTCOM, including C-17A (49!), C-5M, A400M & C-130 transports with RCH/REACH callsigns.

This is far from a complete list and does not include tankers or other types of aircraft.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

*****

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 5 Shahed drones overnight in western Ukraine.

Russians continue to push against the Avdiivka, some estimates of over 4000 dead Russians with probably three times that wounded over the past couple weeks.

Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.

Avdiivka Front -
Russia is now suffering one of the largest losses of equipment and personnel near Avdiivka in 2023. It is alleged that the Russians have deployed up to 8 brigades in the area of Avdiivka. These units probably suffered some of the worst losses seen in the Russian army in 2023.

Russian Territory –
Ukraine drones hit the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai of Russia

OUTLOOK -
Action has largely stalled out by both sides now that the rains have made their return and turning things into a big mud bog. This reduces most of the action to infantry and artillery as armor/tanks can’t play until the ground freezes over. Russian efforts to take Avdiivka will apparently press on, but at very heavy costs. Russia no longer has the artillery dominance necessary to support the infantry and Ukraine has improved to the point that they have reached a degree of parity. Russian unprotected “meat attacks” are not going their way as before. It is devolving into a very bloody fall.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israeli Army Chief of Staff: The army has moved to the second phase of the battle

- Ground operations in Gaza expanded overnight with intense IAF bombing.

- Turkey threatens to attack Israel.

GENERAL ——————————-

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi in a video statement: “Three weeks have passed since the start of the war. This war has stages, and today we moved into a new phase. Our forces are currently carrying out ground operations in the Gaza Strip... which serve to achieve all the war’s objectives, dismantling Hamas, security at the borders, and uppermost efforts to return all the hostages back home. The objectives of the war require ground entry. There are no achievements without risks, and there is no victory without prices being paid. In order to expose the enemy and destroy it, there is no other way but to enter its territory with great force. This action serves all the objectives of the war.”

***
The U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees says thousands of people broke into its Gaza aid warehouses to take food and other “basic survival items,” which the agency’s director says is “a worrying sign that civil order is starting to break down.”
NOTE - Hamas is the ruling govt entity in Gaza - they are doing nothing for the people.

***
Israeli army and Shin Bet claim that they’ve taken out 55 Hamas leaders since Oct 7th.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

The “Second Phase” of Israel’s war against Hamas continues. The Israeli army reports that they are gradually expanding the ground incursion and bringing in more troops. Observers report more gun and tank fire than the initial incursion yesterday.

The Israeli army says fighter jets struck some 450 Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip over the past day, including command centers, observation posts, and anti-tank guided missile launch positions. Observers report that the air strikes overnight were the most severe since the start of the war.

Hamas et al still managed to get a few rocket barrages fired at Israel but had little to no effect.

Israeli Army dispersed more flyers warning of imminent operations in Northern Gaza, urges residents to evacuate.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah continued with harassing fire, using ATGMs and rockets. Israel retaliated with air/artillery strikes of Hezbollah positions and facilities.

***
The Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabia Berri, hosted the Hamas delegation in Beirut, headed by the number 2 in Hamas, Saleh al-Aaruri

***
The U.S. State Department urged on Friday that U.S. nationals in Lebanon leave as soon as possible due to the region’s “unpredictable security situation.” Other countries making the same warning.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Reports of another militia attack with rockets on the U.S assets at the Al-Omar Oilfield base. ‘Iraqi factions targeted an American base in Al-Hasakah in the north of the country with two drones.’
Source: Syrian TV
Syria: The resistance factions in Iraq are also saying that the Shaddadi base to the north was targeted with two drones.

The U.S. forces are targeting Iranian militia positions in the Badia Al-Mayadin desert. This is the second time in less than 72 hours that the U.S. has responded to threats against American bases in eastern Deir Ezzor.

WEST BANK——————————-

Overnight, Israeli army forces demolished the home of Hassan Qatnani, one of the Hamas militants who carried out the deadly shooting attack on the Dee family in April, in the West Bank’s Askar refugee camp. Troops also detained 23 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including four affiliated with Hamas
A large IDF force continues to operate in the West Bank to arrest/neutralize Hamas and affiliated terror groups.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Egypt warned Israel against carrying out military operations along the Philadelphi Corridor and rejected Israel’s apology for damage to an Egyptian Army guard post, according to Egyptian sources quoted in Cairo’s Al-Arabi Al-Jadid newspaper on Sunday morning.

The Philadelphi Corridor, also called the Philadelphi Route, is a narrow strip of land, 14 km. in length, situated along the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt in southern Gaza.

***
Massive pro-Hamas protests broke out in Turkey, Britain, France, Germany. In the US major ones in NYC, and LA.

***
SAUDI MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS STATEMENT:
“We condemn and denounce any ground operations carried out by Israel because they threaten the lives of Palestinian civilians and expose them to more dangers and inhumane conditions”

***
Czech Defense Minister Jana Černochová has just called to leave the UN for cheering Hamas terrorists. “Exactly 3 weeks ago, Hamas murdered over 1400 Israelis, more victims for their population than the militant Islamist organization al-Qaeda murdered in the US on 9/11. And only 14 countries, including ours, have spoken out clearly and understandably against this unprecedented terrorist attack perpetrated by Hamas terrorists! I am ashamed of the UN. In my opinion, the Czech Republic has no place in an organization that cheers on terrorists and does not respect the fundamental right to self-defense. Let’s get out.”

***
The president of Iran stated - “Zionist regime’s crimes have crossed the red lines, which may force everyone to take action. Washington asks us to not do anything, but they keep giving widespread support to Israel. The US sent messages to the Axis of Resistance but received a clear response on the battlefield.”

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - I guess one could say the official ground offensive has kicked off, but it looks like Israel is utilizing a piecemeal attack strategy instead of a full front assault into N Gaza. Taking Hamas out sector by sector.

What is troubling are the global aftershocks that have rippled yesterday. A big one is the Turkish threat to attack Israel (SEE Turkey below). The US stores nuclear bombs in Turkey as a deterrent to Russia, a hold over from the cold war. NATO is at risk now. However, I do not see any immediate action by Turkey - but a lot of rhetoric by Erdoğan at this time.

Second aftershock are remarks coming from Iran that Israel has crossed the red line. So far, even with the latest ground operations, Hezbollah has been relatively quiet and not unleashed the threatened massive rocket attacks promised for an invasion of Gaza. The Iranian ‘resistance’ militias attacks on US bases in eastern Syria and Iraq have not been very substantial over the past few days, more like harassment attacks. Iran is in a hard place because its rhetoric has painted it into a corner. Iran and Hezbollah are primed to attack at a moment’s notice but their window of opportunity is rapidly closing as US and European forces move into the region as a deterrent force.

Third are the splits developing in the UN who in their typical manner condemned Israel and totally ignored the thousand plus murdered, several thousand wounded and a couple hundred hostages from many nations - not just Israel - by Hamas. Calls to actually break up/pull out of the UN by countries could signal a collapse of the organization and may further result in removal of funding by offended nations.

As always, this is a highly fluid situation and things can happen fast.

Iran –

Iran’s Army Ground Force ends its two-day military drill. Chief commander of Iranian Army earlier in the day said the drill sent a message to “enemies that Iranian armed forces have full defensive and combat readiness to deal with any threat.”

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Saudi Arabia –

See Israel above.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.

Iran-backed “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” announces targeting Shaddadi coalition base in Syria with 2 UAVs

Turkey –

Erdoğan: “When I said that Hamas is not a terrorist organization, Israel did not like it very much. That’s why I said it. What were you waiting for?”

“We can come at any night unexpectedly”
In response, hundreds of thousands of Turks start chanting:
“Turkish military to Gaza”
He also threatened to involve his military against Israel.

Erdogan has just expressly called out the West at this rally.
“O West, I’m calling out to you. Do you want to start a Crescent-Crusader clash again?”

OBSERVATION - This is being interpreted by many as a threat of war against Israel and any western supporters. It raised many an eyebrow in the NATO community and some questioning its status as a member.

Turkey and Israel used to have a relatively good relationship, that was until Erdogan decided he would establish a new Caliphate and relations turned rocky. The last couple year things were on the mend. Now there appears to be irreparable harm.

Israel has announced that they are in the process of Withdrawing all diplomatic officials in Turkey in order to allow for the “Reassessment of Turkish-Israeli Relations.” Israel also ordered the expulsion all Turkish diplomats. The breaking off of diplomatic contacts.

The world is unraveling at an increased pace

Globalism / Great Reset –

Many links to events that support the WEF’s goals notes in the following sections.

Economy –

Assets in U.S. ESG-oriented funds continued to shrink in the third quarter of 2023, due to increasing withdrawals and poor market performance, a new Morningstar report reveals.
While Morningstar refers to “sustainable funds” in its report, the report defines such funds as those that focus on the three ideological causes that define ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance):
“The U.S. sustainable fund universe encompasses open-end funds and exchange-traded funds that focus on sustainability, impact, or environmental, social, and governance factors (per the prospectus).”

The report notes that the third quarter’s contraction in total sustainable/ESG fund assets extends a long-term trend of losses.

OBSERVATION - Cross reference with Globalism / Great Reset.
It has been shown for the past several years now that these ESG compliant investing have been money losers. Many states have been forcing pension managers to stop the ESG investing because of those losses. Mega WEF firms like BlackRock have pushed companies into ESG compliance - to the detriment of those companies financial standings. All part of the effort to cripple economic foundation from solid investments to scam investments - to force the great reset.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

The Black Hebrew Israelites battled the pro-Palestinian protesters in Chicago. Black Hebrew Israelites are a new religious movement claiming that African Americans are descendants of the ancient Israelites. FWIW, the SPLC has described the Black Hebrew Israelites as a hate group which supports segregation, Holocaust denial, homophobia and promotes a race war.

OBSERVATION - Violence from all sorts seem to be on the rise and I expect to see more as the Gaza war goes on.

***
One feature of the pro-Hamas protests in the US as well as some parts of the world, have been the LGBT+ support of Hamas and the claims that Islam welcomes their cause as well. This has been thought to be VERY strange given that in the islamic world, LGBT are common killed for their behavior. Their participation in recent protests may be serving as a way to gain acceptance by islam - under the ‘enemy of my enemy is my friend’ concept.

That is not working and islamic leadership is starting to rise up and condemn LGBT openly, threaten persecution and rejecting their support. What remains to be seen is how aggressively moslem protestors here will now act to exclude them from the protests. One factor that may work to force continued participation is $$$$ and the though is for the islamic Hamas supporters to continue to get $$, they have to allow LGBT to continue with them.

***
Pro-hamas protests continued across parts of the country over the weekend. NYC was particularly hit with high profile actions, one closed the Brooklyn Bridge and another shut down Grand Central Station.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.

CROSS REFERENCE TO CW2 AS WELL — Numerous law enforcement and other agencies like the FBI have been alerted and are currently on the scene at Cornell University due to numerous threats against Jews at the University. Some of the posts have even mentioned the possibility of extreme violence. As a result, they have advised students and staff to avoid the building as a precautionary measure this is currently under investigation .

Posting of one of the threats state -

“Israel deserved 10/7, the genocidal fascist zionist regime will be destroyed. râpe and kill all the jew women, before they birth more jewish hitlers. jews are excrement on the face of the earth. no jew civilian is innocent of genocide.”

Cornel has been a focal point of Jewish hatred since the attacks of Oct 7. A brief timeline -

October 11: Cornell wins HEED Award for its commitment to diversity and inclusion
Oct. 15: Cornell professor calls the Hamas massacre “exhilarating”
Oct. 25: Cornell’s campus is covered with graffiti targeted at Jewish students
Oct. 29: Cornell’s Jewish students put on lockdown over death threats

The incitement of violence against Jewish students on campus is out of control and none of the universities are doing anything to address it. These universities and colleges have unashamedly endorsed and condoned physical threats to Jews on their campuses - encouraging these kinds of threats. Recently Jewish students at another college had to get locked inside a library to avoid physical harm from another group of pro-hamas protestors.

***
Concerns are rising regarding attacks on the power grid. Some watchers are noting an increase in the number of attacks over the past couple years. These groups are trying to attribute the attacks to white supremest, neo-Nazis.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Bataan Amphibious-Ready Group consisting of the USS Bataan (LHD-5) and USS Carter Hall (LSD-50) as well as roughly 2,000 Marines with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit has now being ordered to immediately deploy to the eastern Mediterranean after recently entering the Red Sea near Yemen; once crossing the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean she will link-up with the remainder of the ARG, the USS Mesa Verde (LPD-19) who has been underway in the Eastern Mediterranean for the last week or so, where they will then await further orders.

***
USNS William McLean entered the Med to join Laramie and Medgar Evers. The ships mentioned are part of the United States Navy’s Military Sealift Command (MSC) fleet. These are not traditional combat ships but are auxiliary ships used for various logistics and support roles, such as replenishing other naval vessels with fuel, ammunition, and supplies.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

Older adults who received last year’s COVID booster and a high-dose version of the flu vaccine in the same visit may have a potential increased risk of stroke, according to a new FDA-funded study. However, experts urge that these results were preliminary.

OBSERVATION - Also expect the results to be down played by a large factor.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Lots happening but I don’t have time to get into details. Trump faces legal issues by biased judges, biden crime syndicate gets hit with more damming evidence, etc.

Nov 17 deadline on the budget is fast approaching.

Watching the developing court case in Colorado attempting to keep Trump off the ballot.

Biden / Harris Watch –

World burns, biden fiddles.

Cyber attacks/warfare –

Illegal Immigration –

CROSS REFERENCE TO CW2 AND TERRORISM AS WELL - Henchmen for Venezuela’s dictator and many of the South American country’s worst criminals have crossed over the US border and are now causing chaos in major American cities, including Dallas, Miami and Chicago, multiple sources tell the DailyMail.com.

In Dallas, the Venezuelan neighborhood known as ‘Villa Dallas’ has descended into mayhem. For months, once peaceful apartment complexes have been the scene of illegal street races, beatings, shootings and extortion attempts.

Residents, overwhelmingly migrants who recently made the harrowing trek through several countries to reach America and are seeking asylum, pointed to videos of fights between armed men, broken windows and reckless drivers speeding through parking lots.

At least 334,914 Venezuelan citizens have crossed into the US in fiscal year 2023, according to US Customs and Border Protection statistics.

In the month of September alone, 72,352 Venezuelans were encountered at US international crossings— making citizens from the South American country the largest nationality arrested for illegally entering the US. For the first time ever, Mexicans citizens were replaced as the top nationality along the border.

OBSERVATION - Many are the voices that have warned that this was about to happen and was starting to happen. Now overwhelmed police forces have this to deal with as well.

China –

A Hong Kong High Court judge has given crisis-hit Chinese property giant Evergrande one last chance to come up with a new deal over its huge debts or face liquidation.
A winding-up hearing, initially scheduled for Monday, was adjourned to 4 December.
Justice Linda Chan said it would be the last hearing before a decision is made.
Evergrande is the world’s most indebted property developer with more than $325bn (£268.4bn) of total liabilities.
It defaulted on its debts two years ago and has been working on a new repayment plan ever since.
Justice Chan said Evergrande had to come up with a “concrete” proposal otherwise it was likely the company would be wound up. A liquidator would still be able negotiate with creditors, she added.

Evergrande did not immediately respond to a BBC request for comment.

Apart from deciding which lenders get priority in a liquidation, there is also question of who will finish the homes that more than a million Chinese people are still waiting for Evergrande to hand over.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67258934

OBSERVATION - Evergrande is the largest of the property giants facing the same economic reality from the crashing Chinese market. Analysts are concerned that the Chinese leadership will deny that it is ‘too big to fail’ and do nothing - an action that will hammer foreign investors and turn them cold towards other investments in China.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

*****

The predominantly moslem region of Dagestan erupted into a mass lynch mob, seeking jews in hotels and buses before storming the airport upon hearing of an impending arrival of an Israeli flagged airliner. The mob attempted to enter the plane but were unsuccessful.

The Russian National Guard and Security Forces stormed the tarmac at Makhachkala International Airport. Fighting broke out between the mob and guardsmen. 60 rioters were detained at Mahachkala airport, 9 policemen wounded.

Kremlin claims that the events around Makhachkala Airport in Dagestan yesterday were caused by an “external influence”

These riots reflect the tip of the iceberg that is rising anti-Semitism that is growing rapidly in Russia.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
Various pro-Russian channels report that the Russian commander of the Dnipro front in Kherson, Colonel General Oleg Makarevich, has been relieved from his post.
They claim that he failed to report an accurate picture of the situation on the ground.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
In western Ukraine, air defense shot down 12 Shahed drones and 2 Kh-59 missiles overnight

Russians continue to push against the Avdiivka, some estimates of over 4000 dead Russians with probably three times that wounded over the past couple weeks.

Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.

Kherson Axis -
Ukraine forces have captured a small town and expanded its bridgehead on the left bank of the Dniper River.

Avdiivka Front -

Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has committed reserves to the defense of Avdiivka, launching a big counter attack on the northern and southwestern margins.
The unconfirmed reports of the action are coming from both from Ukraine and Russian sides.

Crimean front —
17 Russian servicemen were wounded as result of attack at air defense unit in Olenivka, occupied Crimea. Smoke observed in Sevastopol and an aerial alert, Kerch bridge has been also closed.

OUTLOOK -
A lot of the news out of Ukraine has been muted by the news out of Gaza.

Hottest spot continues to be Avdiivka, but right now the fog of war makes things uncertain.

Low numbers of Russian deep attacks by drones and missiles continues to infer that they are saving up for a later winter blitz against Ukraine power grid.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- First air strike in the west bank in over 20 years.

- Israeli armor formation reach the main N-S road south of Gaza city.

- Israeli armor units push southward along the coast in N Gaza.

- Level of fighting is increasing along the Lebanese border.

GENERAL ——————————-

This next is kinda long but bear with it - provides insight

Khaled Mashaal, a senior Hamas figure, demanded a multi-front storming of Israel, calling for greater involvement from Hezbollah and other supporters of the resistance.
He emphasizes the importance of collective action, stating:
“It’s in all of our best interest to enter this war together; this is how history is made.”

Mashaal also said that he believes that history is shaped by strategic and bold actions, not limited ones.

His call brought various, not so nice responses from across the arab world.

Wa’aem Wahab, the head of the Lebanese Arab Unification Party, responds to Mashaal’s call saying:
“I ask our brother Mashaal, if he has the 30 billion dollars it will cost for the war, then we welcome it, and let’s go in and do it.”

Faisal Abd el Sater, a political analyst aligning with Hezbollah, responds by saying:
“It’s not up to you, a person who lives in a hotel in a Gulf country, to make demands like this.”
He also notes that Mashaal’s name is generally not well received in their society.

Another Hezbollah-aligned political analyst criticizes Mashaal’s intentions, sarcastically says:
“Mashaal, who enjoys the comforts of a 7-star hotel, is calling for Lebanon to bombard Israel with rockets.”

OBSERVATION - The top Hamas leaders are residing in Qatar, with the three main leaders being reported as being billionaires and living a luxury life absent the threat from the current way. These arab/islamic responses condemn the apparent leading from the far rear, willing for others to die while they live the fat life. Clearly shows that support for Hamas is not as firm as Hamas may have once thought.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

IDF ground operations in Gaza continued and expanded overnight:

IDF says that over the past day it carried out strikes against some 600 sites in the Gaza Strip.

An IAF aircraft—guided by ground forces—struck a Hamas post and the 20+ terrorist operatives in it.

Soldiers spotted armed terrorists and an anti-tank missile launching post near the Al-Azhar University and guided an IAF fighter jet to strike them.

IDF forces eliminated multiple terrorists barricaded within civilian buildings and terrorist tunnels who attempted to attack the forces.

Israeli forces have reached the Salah al-Din road, the main artery of the Gaza Strip and the main road leading to Gaza city. It appears that this axis goal is to reach the sea which will effectively cut the Gaza Strip in half and then securing the perimeter along the Wadi Gaza.

Israeli army says that forces operating in the Gaza Strip killed several Hamas commanders, including the head of the naval forces in central Gaza, the head of the ATGM array in Tuffah, and a senior operative involved in weapon manufacturing

Hamas et al still managing to launch some rockets. Estimates now that 8000+ have been fires since Oct 7.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah rockets have intensified in northern Israel as the Israeli military advances deeper into Gaza. Terrorists in Lebanon fired a salvo of rockets at northern Israel on Sunday evening, setting off air raid sirens in Kiryat Shmona and the Upper Galilee region.

“Following the initial report of alerts in the northern region, about ten launches were identified that crossed from Lebanese territory into Israeli territory,” the Israel Defense Forces said.

“The IDF is attacking in Lebanese territory in response to the shooting,” added the statement.

***
Circulating video shows the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, passing in front of a Hezbollah flag. It is an alert to an announced speech by Nasrallah to be given this coming Friday. Nasrallah has been silent since the Gaza war began on Oct 7th, so his speech will either announce full offensive actions by Hezbollah or look to some way to back out of its promises to Hamas to enter the war upon the invasion of Gaza.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

The Israeli army says it has identified several launches from Syria. The projectiles fell in open areas and the Israeli army is responding with artillery fire.

Israeli missiles hit the military storage facility at Al-Jamou’ in the western countryside of Daraa, where Iranian militias are stationed.

Syrian State Media is reporting that the Headquarters for the 112th Mechanized Brigade of the Syrian Army in the city of Nawa has been attacked by Israeli combat aircraft which resulted in significant damage and casualties.

Syria/Iraq: Some local sources reporting more than half a dozen strikes by aircraft on the border last night targeting a convoy of trucks. No confirmation from CENTCOM or officials yet, but something definitely went bang last night on the Iraq/Syria border. Reports of building and vehicles on fire after two strikes. There are follow-on reports of five rockets, originating from Iranian militias stationed near the city of Al-Mayadeen, targeted the Al-Omar field base after these airstrikes.

Israel attacked two positions belonging to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in Daraa, southern Syria, yesterday in response to the firing of rockets at Israel.

The Iranian backed militias are still mostly using harassing attacks, nothing significantly masses since their first attacks a week ago.

WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli air strike in Jenin, West Bank. First in over 20 years. Strike consisted of a missile(s) fired by a drone and not the massive explosive bombs being used in Gaza.

Ongoing Israeli operations to seize associated terrorists.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Unconfirmed report of an apparent interception of a ballistic missile over the Red Sea. Has been denied by Israel.

***
Jordan has asked the US to deploy Patriot air defense systems on its territory to help strengthen its border defenses

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues its apparently systematic attack in N Gaza. Tactic is neutralizing Hamas’ attempts to pop out of its underground bunkers. They are working their way eventually to surround Gaza City - the main site of Hamas power and military facilities. They have some in S Gaza, but those locations are too far away from major Israeli cities to be much use for their short ranged rockets. Israel, once the north has been secured, may shift progressively to the south to hit Hamas reminants hiding there.

The role that Hezbollah will play is uncertain pending Nasrallah speech this Friday. The literal hell that Israel has unleashed on Gaza and the potential for that wrath to reach them may well have them making second thoughts.

They may also be questioning how the US/European fleets in the eastern Med are going to respond to any Hezbollah missile/rocket barrage, and are they willing to pay the double price of US intervention combined with Israeli counter strikes. Israel has only committed about 1/3 of its called up forces in Gaza, leaving a sizable force to go into Lebanon should the need require - another factor Hezbollah has to consider. Israel this time around will not go blindly as they did the last go round and get caught in kill zones.

Tied into Hezbollah’s decision is the pushing by Iran. If Hezbollah enters the war, Iran will be forced to support them - increasing the potential for escalating the situation. US THAAD and Patriot systems across the middle east, along with the Ike CSG and other USAF and ground forces could make life miserable for the imans. We may see better on Friday what they plan to do.

As always, this is a highly fluid situation and things can happen fast.

Iran –

Protests Erupt in Tehran Following the Death of Armita Geravand Demonstrators in Tehran can be heard chanting “down with child-killers” and “down with the Islamic Republic of Iran” from their balconies. These protests were sparked on the first night after the tragic passing of 16-year-old Armita Geravand, who was beaten into a coma by morality police for refusing to cover her hair in public.

OBSERVATION - Iran had major protests a couple years ago for similar assaults and deaths of women who refused to cover their head. Not sure if this will gain enough traction to be a repeat, but it occurs at a time when Iran is focused on the Gaza war and trying to direct its minions against Israel and the US.

****
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said Monday the U.S. should refrain from blaming Tehran for Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks on Israel.

“Stop it,” Nasser Kanaani said, when asked by a journalist about statements by U.S. officials, including President Joe Biden, accusing Iran in relation to developments in Gaza.
OBSERVATION - If the shoe fits . . . .

Iraq -

See Israel above re: iranian backed militias attacks on US forces in Iraq.

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.

The world is unraveling at an increased pace

Economy –

(FO) The United Auto Workers (UAW) Union reached a tentative agreement with Detroit’s Big Three automakers, which should boost labor’s leverage against U.S. corporations in other sectors. The tentative deals will raise top wages by 33% when factoring in cost-of-living adjustments.

***
In a closely watched announcement Monday afternoon, the Treasury Department said it will be looking to borrow $776 billion thru the end of the year.

The Treasury said it also expects to borrow $816 billion between January and March.

The Treasury just borrowed $1.01 trillion in the recently ended July through September period, the highest ever for that quarter.

OBSERVATION - This is insanity - it appears that the regime is trying its best to bury the country in unrepeatable debt as quickly as possible. These numbers are absolutely HUGE.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

Over 100 professors from Columbia University signed a letter Monday defending students who openly supported Hamas’s terror attacks in Israel on October 7. What’s worse, instead of calling the acts of that day terrorism, they chose to use the phrase “military operations.”

OBSERVATION - This is incitement - pure and simple. What these ‘professors’ deliberately overlooked was their double standard. The attack by Hamas was a terrorist attack and if placed squarely under the so called “Rules of War” they were in gross violation of them.

Such condoning of bloodthirsty violence by the intellectual “elites” on our colleges and universities is contributing to the growing justification of violence directed towards the Jewish community in general and the US Jewish community in particular. IMHO, unless state govts nip this at the bud, we have a potential of seeing rooftop “Jews” in the near future, protecting their businesses, families and synagogues for these mindless, rampaging students and the Antifa attachments.

***
Rick Wilson in a Rumble rant says someone will have to put a bullet in Donald Trump

OBSERVATION - I’ve noted that the potential for an attempted assassination on Trump, as well as other primary republican political candidates is exceptionally high. The marxist left is seeing the implosion of biden’s polling numbers and he’s dragging the left down with him. Remove Trump, there is no real successor among the other candidates and the republicans will break down into even more factions over a candidate - see the recent house speakership scrum for an example.

An assassination could very well trigger some on the right to retaliate, allowing the regime to get its justification for martial law and potentially shut down the elections by essentially arresting every Trump / republican.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.

A 22-year-old man, heavily armed and carrying a cache of explosives, was found dead at Glenwood Caverns Adventure Park on Saturday morning before the park opened to the public.

Diego Barajas Medina, 20, was found dead in a women’s bathroom at Glenwood Caverns Adventure Park by a maintenance crew on Saturday morning, before the park opened to the public. He died of a self-inflected gunshot wound to the head, Garfield County Coroner Robert Glassmire said. Authorities reported he was dressed in tactical clothing and body armor. His arsenal included an AR-style rifle, a handgun, multiple loaded magazines for each weapon, and explosives.

A message saying, “I am not a killer, I just wanted to get into the caves,” was written on a wall of the bathroom where Medina’s body was found lying on the floor, Garfield County Sheriff Lou Vallario said.

OBSERVATION - This is an unusual instance, no word yet as to if he killed himself rather than go on a rampage. Speculation is he changed his mind.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

According to a Monday report, the Bataan Amphibious Readiness Group (ARG) was reassigned to the Red Sea with three Destroyers as escorts.

OBSERVATION - This is confusing, since yesterday the report was it was to join the USS Ford in the eastern Med.

POLITICAL FRONT –

SNAFU - Situation normal all fouled up.. . . . . .

Biden / Harris Watch –

BIDEN v. TELEPROMPTER: “American leadership and the undeniable rights endowed by our Creator that no Creator, no creation can take away...”

OBSERVATION - Honestly, he can’t even read a teleprompter anymore.

Illegal Immigration –

A federal judge has issued a temporary restraining order which blocks the Biden administration from cutting or removing razor wire deployed at the border by the state of Texas.

China –

China continues to issues statements in support of Iran against any attacks by Israel or the US.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

*****

putin continues to broaden the gap in Russian / Israeli relations calling Israel’s defensive actions criminal.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Things relatively static overnight. Ukraine has retaken some the key tactical sites around Avdiivka it had earlier lost.

Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.

Kherson Axis -
Reports of Ukraine forces expanding the bridgeheads across the Dniper River, now to a point where more reinforcements can cross at a faster pace.

OUTLOOK -
A lot of the news out of Ukraine has been muted by the news out of Gaza.

Hottest spot continues to be Avdiivka with indications that Ukraine is retaking territory lost to Russia during the past three weeks of its offensive.

Many are looking at the 5 month offensive by Ukraine as being a failure. The assessment in part points the finger at much delayed western support combined with the massive mining of the Russian defensive lines that worked to negate the Ukraine advantage in modern armor and tanks. I still expect to see continued Ukraine actions in the south primarily the Tokmok and Kherson fronts. The Kherson front shows promise against a vastly stretched out Russian foe. Weather is the biggest foe on both sides now.

Europe / NATO General –

Slovakia’s newly formed government has announced the deployment of hundreds of police officers and troops along the Hungarian border, to contain the growing number of migrants illegally crossing into the country.
Newly appointed populist Prime Minister Robert Fico said illegal migration must be controlled, warning that people linked to “terrorist” groups could otherwise enter the country.

He did not give details of the deployment, but he visited one of the border crossings late on Monday to review the measures.
“We want to send a clear signal that with the new government, a new approach to illegal migration has come,” said Interior Minister Matus Sutaj Estok.
Addressing reporters, he added that “massive forces” would be deployed to defend the border areas with Hungary that are not official crossing points.

OBSERVATION - The globalist EU powers that be want continued unrestricted migration of foreign groups from the middle east and Africa to continue unabated. They won a battle, with a leftist govt elected in Poland who vowed to open the floodgates. Slovakia OTOH sees what is happening in European countries, demonstrated so clearly by the massive pro-Hamas, pro-Islam rallies across many major European cities. They want nothing of it.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu rejected calls for a ceasefire Monday, equating them to calls for Israel to surrender to Hamas.

- Massive Israeli airstrikes against northern Gaza continue

GENERAL ——————————-

Monday, combined IDF combat forces struck approximately 300 targets, including anti-tank missile and rocket launch posts below shafts, as well as military compounds inside underground tunnels belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization.

***
Defense Minister Gallant: Israel is keeping most Air Force capabilities for a potential war vs. Hezbollah (via ynet alerts).

NOTE - There is likely a degree of propaganda in this statement. However, the premise is sound. Hezbollah has about 150,000 rockets and about 50,000 soldiers in Lebanon and Israel in its planning has factored in having to fight a multi front war. This statement implies that, what you see in Gaza is just a sample of Israel’s air power. Unconfirmed that 10 F16s are doing the bulk of Gaza strikes. That number seems low for the intensity and continuation of the strikes.

***
Israeli air defense asset were busy overnight in the Eilat, southern Israel region as numerous drones and other unidentified targets were hit. Source of these appear to be Houthi rebels in Yemen.

***
A female IDF soldier who had been kidnapped by Hamas on October 7 was freed during a ground operation in the Gaza Strip, the IDF and Shin Bet announced.

However, the family of Shani Louk, the German-Israeli woman seen in video being paraded around by Hamas men praising Allah, has confirmed she is dead. She was found beheaded

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Initial pushes by Israel into Gaza consisted of one along the coast line. The second cutting across the central part of Gaza headed towards the coast line. Now the third has kicked off overnight in the northeastern corner of Gaza. These three avenues were reported on last week from the intensive recon in force as well as the later massive raids that provided a rolling start for the invasion. Penetration is now at least 5 km in some places.

***
Unconfirmed, but likely reports indicate that the IDF is engaging in significant fighting in the Hamas tunnel network. This is the main cause of the slow, movement of forces into the strip. This is to be expected and part of the systematic destruction of Hamas.

***
Hamas et al still manages to fire off rockets, but fewer and fewer.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israel Defense Force has announced that due to escalating fighting with Hezbollah on the border with Lebanon, the Israeli Air Force tonight has bombed a Hezbollah arms and munitions depot for the first time during this war as a warning to the terror organization.

***
Hezbollah appears to be taking steps to cut mounting losses after dozens of operatives killed by Israel in recent weeks. They are allegedly deploying surface-to-air missiles to counter Israeli drones, and taking other measures according to Reuters.

NOTE - most Israeli counter strikes have taken out numerous squad sized elements - a drop in the bucket for a 50,000 strong contingent. However, such continued success by Israel appears to be having an effect on overall morale, thus Hezbollah is having to try to turn the tide.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Relatively quiet since IAF airstrikes hit Hezbollah and Syrian forces positions recently.

WEST BANK——————————-

The Israeli army continues a campaign of arrests and raids in the West Bank and Jerusalem

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Reports that Israel and the US are trying to work out some sort of agreement with Egypt to accept refugees on a temporary basis. Some rumors suggest that they will eventually be resettled in Canada. Egypt still maintains its refusal to accept any gazans.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Things have reached a temporary plateau. Israel continues to push into Gaza in spite of all the Hamas bluster saying they are driving Israel back. The absence of such ‘successes’ on social media - and boy does Hamas like social media - strongly suggests that they are getting their arses handed to them. The Israeli push is slow in that it is a systematic clean out of Hamas fighters, facilities and tunnel network, while at the same time searching for hostages or intel on where they are being held.

All eyes continue to be on the reaction by Hezbollah, who’s leader is still planning to do a big speech this Friday. Full entrance by Hezbollah into the fight will change the dynamics of the situation significantly and could cause a rapid expansion of the fight, bringing it to Iran proper. if that occurs, its all downhill from there.

There will be continued calls for a ceasefire - something Israel has flatly rejected and is expected to continue to reject.

Also continued pleas concerning the Gaza hospitals - remember, military use by Hamas of these facilities is a breach of the laws of war and removes their protected status. My guess is that Israel will hit the underground works surrounding the hospitals and save the works under the hospital for the ground troops.

As always, this is a highly fluid situation and things can happen fast.

Iran –

Continued bluster and threats of an “earth shaking” response to any strikes by the west in response to Iranian aggression associated with the Gaza war.

OBSERVATION - Serious concerns rising that Iran may try to make the nuclear jump at this stage as a means of further deterrent.

Iraq -

US forces in the MiddleEast have been attacked by drones/rockets at least 23 times since October 17 - 14 in Iraq & 9 in Syria - per a senior US defense official “Most failed to reach their targets” per the official

OBSERVATION - Some analysts note that the restrained US counterstrikes are an effort to keep the situation from deteriorating. The militias at this stage seem to be looking for the one lucky strike in all their harassing fires.

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Saudi Arabia –

The Saudi Arabian Armed Forces and Air Defense Sites across the country have reportedly been placed into a heightened state of readiness following clashes with Houthi Fighters over the last 24 Hours within the Jazan Region near the border with Yemen; as a result of clashes with the Iranian-backed terror group at least 4 Saudi soldiers have been reported to have been killed.

OBSERVATION - SA reliance on the west, particularly the US, for defensive systems like Patriot systems may be the cause for some of its rhetoric cooling of late.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.

US forces in the Middle East have been attacked by drones/rockets at least 23 times since October 17 - 14 in Iraq & 9 in Syria - per a senior US defense official “Most failed to reach their targets” per the official

USAF has struck Iranian backed militia sites in response.

Venezuela -

Venezuela’s electoral court said it is suspending “all the effects” of the opposition party primary election and ordered the primary vote organizers to turn over all documents after Venezuelan President Maduro called the vote fraudulent.

OBSERVATION - One of the stipulations in the oil deal made recently by biden is that Venezuela would have open elections True to tyrannical form Maduro, is reneging on that deal.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Bill Gates is still pushing his digital ID programs that are essentially tools to that make “governments more efficient at what they are already doing,” according to the Financial Times, “and can be used as a tool to suppress or discriminate against certain citizens.” This time the Gates development and rollout of a government-backed digital ID program was announced in Kenya after a recent series of “closed-door meetings” with President Ruto. It includes a biometric vaccination system for newborns to replace birth certificates while also helping to track children from birth to 5 years old to ensure all children receive their vaccines.

OBSERVATION - This guy is taking an ever deepening plunge into the dark side.

***
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its semi-annual “Global Financial Stability Report,” stressing that central banks around the world may need to keep interest rates high to battle inflation but higher rates will add pressure to economies.

OBSERVATION - They are also spreading hopium the there will be a ‘soft landing’ of the global economy as well. Continued high rates will continue to stress key market areas that can fail easier and easier as the press to stop inflation continues.

Economy –

Consumer confidence fell for the third straight month in October to its lowest level in five months, a key survey of U.S. households showed Tuesday.
The closely followed index of consumer confidence compiled by the Conference Board fell to 102.6 from a revised 104.3 in September. Both the assessment of the present situation and the outlook of consumers declined.
The expectations index fell slightly and remains below the threshold of 80 that historically signals a recession within the next year. The Conference Board describes consumer fears of a recession as “elevated” and says it expects a “short and shallow economic contraction” in the first half of next year.

OBSERVATION - The pocket books of Americans disagree with the happy talk from biden et al on the state of our economy.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

Continued anti -Israel protests, expected to pick up again as the weekend approaches. Conflict between LGBT supporters of Hamas and islamic radicals continue to develop rifts between the cooperation between the two groups.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.

WARNING - Iran through its supported proxy militias and organizations are saying that if Israel isn’t forced into cease fire by the 5th of November, they will launch all out attacks on Israel and its supporters. This includes threats against targets in the US as well as overseas.

*****
FBI Director Chris Wray says Iran has made assassination attempts against “dissidents and high-ranking current and former U.S. government officials, including right here on American soil.”

***
Patrick Dai, a Cornell student, has been arrested for making online threats to Jewish students on campus. Accord to his Linkedin, He worked as a “safety officer” at Cornell. Dai faces a maximum term of five years in prison, a $250,000 fine, and a term of supervised release of up to three years if convicted.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Massive airlift continues to bring arms and materials into the middle east.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

Former VP at Pfizer, Dr. Mike Yeadon, expressed again outside the UK Parliament that mRNA-based COVID vaccines were designed intentionally to harm, maim, kill, and reduce human fertility.

***
Evidence coming out that Fauci experimented with Covid for more than a year before outbreak

OBSERVATION - Increasing the pile of evidence that wuhan was a deliberate release into society and directed by this vile person.

POLITICAL FRONT –

IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel faced a grilling by lawmakers on Capitol Hill this past week, where he hinted that there’s a chance that the agency will—contrary to its repeated pledges—increase tax audits of Americans earning under $400,000.

The question of whether the IRS will use some of the $80 billion or so funding boost to increase tax enforcement of people making less than $400,000 has been a contentious issue.

IRS and Treasury Department officials have pledged not to increase audit rates for this group of Americans, while Republicans and others have argued that this pledge is either false or wishful thinking.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has directed the IRS not to raise audit rates above historical levels for this group of taxpayers, while Mr. Werfel has repeatedly made the same pledge.

But a watchdog recently cast doubt on this promise, warning that Americans making less than $400,000 could inadvertently get caught in an enforcement dragnet because the IRS doesn’t have a clear definition of “high-income” and its enforcers use an outdated $200,000 high-income threshold as their default.

OBSERVATION - It wasn’t rocket science to realize that there aren’t enough superrich in this country to keep 18,000 gainfully occupied.

Illegal Immigration –

In Senate hearing, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas confirms over 600,000 known gotaways at the border in fiscal year 2023 while being questioned by Roger Marshall. Mayorkas also repeatedly refused to answer Marshall’s questions asking how many illegal immigrants have ties to known terror groups, saying only that DHS takes “appropriate enforcement action” to any national security threats. Marshall also asked when and if DHS would provide the countries of origin of people arrested at the border on the FBI terror watchlist - Mayorkas responded that that data could be provided in an “appropriate setting” (non public)

OBSERVATION - Why is this slime ball still in office? More blocking of critical information to congress and the American people.

China –

China’s manufacturing activity crashed in October, posting numbers far lower than the slight dip many outside observers expected.
Construction activity slowed as well, pointing to continued structural weakness in the Chinese economy – specifically, the weakness that Chinese consumer spending is not rebounding as quickly as the regime in Beijing expected after the end of brutal coronavirus lockdowns.

OBSERVATION - China’s economic woes continue and it is rippling throughout the global market, given the reliance on China for materials and goods that are still high post wuhan.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

*****

Logistics –
An explosion of unknown cause has rocked one of Russia’s largest ammunition manufacturing plants, according to officials in central Russia’s Perm region, which lies about 1,000km east of Moscow.
“Windows and doors were broken [but] there are no victims, there is no threat to the populace,” a statement said. “The incident did not affect the plant’s production process.”
NOTE - How a major ammo plant can have a mega explosion and not affect the plant is mind boggling.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Things relatively static overnight. Ukraine has retaken some the key tactical sites around Avdiivka it had earlier lost.

Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.

Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 18 of 20 Shahed drones and Kh-59 cruise missile. Russian targeting western Ukraine and the Odesa regions. The Kremenchuk, Poltava region in eastern Ukraine was also targeted.

Tokmak Axis -.
Ukraine forces have consolidated critical high ground (elevation 142 M) west of Robotyne. Progress being made incrementally but steady in the Robotyne -Verbove battle space.

Avdiivka Front -
More analysis of the Russian attempt at an offensive at Avdiivka by geoconfirmed on X, vehicle losses noted.

99 Losses are from the first wave of the offensive:
Between 9 and 13 October.

94 losses are from the second wave of the offensive:
Between 14 and 23 October.

4 confirmed and 18 potential losses between 24 and 31 October.

Essentially 3 battalions lost in two waves of the offensive attacks in October. And Russia essentially has nothing to show for it.

OUTLOOK -
A lot of the news out of Ukraine has been muted by the news out of Gaza.

Hottest spot continues to be Avdiivka with indications that Ukraine is retaking territory lost to Russia during the past three weeks of its offensive.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Houthi leaders in Yemen announce enterance into the Gaza war, launched numerous ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones towards Israel.

- Increasing speculation that Hezbollah’s big announcement this Friday is to announce full scale war with Israel

- Israel encountering pockets of Hamas terrorists, resulting in fierce fighting.

- IAF continues to make steady progress to encircle Gaza City.

- Yemen Houthi announces it is at war with Israel.
NOTE - The Houthi are not the recognized rulers of Yemen, they do control most of the country.

GENERAL ——————————-

The Arrow air defense system intercepted a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) over the Red Sea likely inbound for Eilat in southern Israel.

RUMINT - Hezbollah and Iran have threatened that if the war does not end by dawn on Friday, the axis of resistance will be the side that directly intervenes in the war, as well as Hezbollah.

***
Israel deployed warships in Red Sea to counter threats from Yemen. This is a defensive step, but some indicate that sooner or later things will start exploding in Yemen as well.

***
The Hamas terror group is blocking hundreds of Americans who are stuck inside the Gaza Strip from leaving the territory, a senior defense official said Monday. The number is estimated to be about 500 US citizens. This by definition, makes them hostages.

***
Hamas is the elected government of the Gaza Strip. It acts as a warlord gang, not as a government. It is essentially ISIS or al Qaeda with the trappings of a state wrapped around it. When asked about sheltering gazans in their underground network, a Hamas official replied that it is the responsibility of the United Nations to protect them.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Israel confirms it carried out airstrike at Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza, despite the presence of civilians, to kill senior Hamas commander. The bomb triggered substantial secondary explosions and resulting collapse of an underground tunnel network created a large crater.

According to Israeli Defense Officials, at least 2 Armored and Infantry Divisions consisting of over 20,000 IDF troops and hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles have entered the Northern Gaza Strip since the expansion of ground operations in the strip was announced on October 27th.
NOTE - Israel has a call-up of 360,000 Reservists on standby.

Israel appears to be attempting to encircle Gaza City and Northern Gaza from the south, north, and east. This is probably a strategy that Hamas did not expect.

The IDF is seemingly moving along Wadi Gaza towards the coast in an attempt to cut off north Gaza and surround Gaza City, while other units advance from the north near Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia towns. The link below is a depiction of the approximate disposition of Israeli forces so far.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9y5GiNXMAEse-q?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah and Israel continue to trade fire across the border. Forest fires are growing in S Lebanon as a result of shelling.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Relatively quiet since IAF airstrikes hit Hezbollah and Syrian forces positions recently.

WEST BANK——————————-

The Israeli army continues a campaign of arrests and raids in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims responsibility for 2 suicide drones targeted Al-Tanaf base that hosts US forces, on the Iraqi/Syrian borders. Other US bases in the region have also been attacked.

The Rafah crossing has opened from Gaza for the first time since the Hamas attack in Israel on Oct. 7th. A small number of wounded Palestinians are being taken to Egypt for treatment and some foreign nationals or dual passport holders are also leaving.

Egypt has deployed tanks and armored vehicles on the border with the Gaza Strip
The country fears the arrival of tens of thousands of refugees from the conflict zone and allows only trucks with humanitarian aid across the border, reports Times of Israel.
Earlier, the Egyptian authorities said they would not accept Palestinian refugees.
Egypt is reiterating that is will not accept general migration of Gaza arabs out of the strip. “We, the Egyptians, are ready to sacrifice millions of lives so that nobody approaches a grain of sand”
Dual nationality citizens have reportedly begun leaving Gaza via Rafah Crossing into Egypt.

Turkish Minister of Health, Fahrettin Koca: We have made all preparations to establish 20 field hospitals both in the area near the Rafah border crossing and at El Arish Airport. We are waiting for security and permits to be granted

Social media reveal the wreckage of a Houthi Quds cruise missile in the southern region of Mudawwara, Ma’an, Jordan, approximately 1,500 km away from Yemen. Houthis have been dropping hints about targeting the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center in Dimona, Israel.
NOTE - Jordan earlier last week requested a US Patriot system.

Bolivia breaks off its diplomatic relations with Israel

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Things have reached a temporary plateau. Israel is continuing to press towards its objectives in Gaza, the only hindrance is the need to clear Hamas out methodically.

Once Gaza City is encircled, I would expect a similar, methodical push towards the center of the town. It will take months to achieve this.

Concern is ramping up over Hezbollah jumping in with both feet into the war. This potential Friday announcement has some Iranian proxy militias leaning forward in their foxholes, but I think the numbers are giving them pause.
Currently Israel has about 20K troops on the ground in Gaza - Israel is also sitting on 300K reserves, meaning that should Hezbollah get froggy, Israel has a substantial reserve force to address them. Also, the report that Israel has kept a significant amount of its aircraft power in reserve - just for Hezbollah.

The effect of Hezbollah and the army of resistance openly coming out is a definite increase in the scope of the fighting. And an increased threat of direct action by and against Iran. Again, it all depends on this statement on Friday.

This could be quite a chaotic weekend, keep alert.

Iran –

Iran’s Defense Minister issued a stern warning, stating that the U.S, which supports Israel, will undoubtedly face repercussions. He further cautioned European countries to be cautious and avoid incurring the ‘wrath of the global Muslim community.’
The Defense Minister emphasized that, unless the ongoing conflict ceases promptly, Israel and its allies will experience severe consequences.

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.

Central / South America General-

Bolivia breaks off its diplomatic relations with Israel

Globalism / Great Reset –

Pascal Najadi, the son of World Economic Forum co-founder Hussain Najadi, called for the arrests of those responsible for the forced COVID-19 “vaccinations” of 5.7 billion people around the world, saying the injections are a bioweapon leading to “democide.”

“Democide” is a term coined a few decades ago that refers to government mass murder and extermination of civilian populations via either direct action or indifference.

“Everything evil in the world related to democide, unfortunately, comes from Geneva,” Najadi said as he listed the global organizations headquartered in Geneva that played major roles in mandating the COVID jab, which has proved deadly to an estimated 50 million souls around the globe and medically debilitating to tens of millions more.

OBSERVATION - This has been out there for a few days now. Many have called for the arrest of those associated with the wuhan plandemic. Here a definite former insider speaks out.

Economy –

ADP reported yesterday that the US economy added 113,000 jobs in October.
Analysts’ expectations were for a rise to +150k job additions in October, but for the 3rd straight month, ADP disappointed with a +113k print (+150k exp).

OBSERVATION - This speaks against the validity of a 4.3% GDP for the same period.

***
The US Federal Reserve has said it would hold benchmark interest rates steady at its current 22-year high, but left the door open to further hikes if the inflation rate accelerates. “The fact is the committee is not thinking about rate cuts right now at all,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told a press conference.
The decision to hold rates high was widely expected, given the Fed’s stated goal of slowing inflation to a long-term target of 2%.

OBSERVATION - The continued high rates are eating at the economic foundations of the country and in many ways doing more to damage it than inflation. No relief is sight until late 2024 at the earliest.

***
Charles Schwab has laid off 5% to 6% of its total headcount in a bid to cut rising costs, a company spokesperson said Wednesday.
The reduction amounts to between 1,795 and 2,154 people out of its 35,900-strong workforce.

“These were hard but necessary steps to ensure Schwab remains highly competitive,” the spokesperson said in an emailed statement.

OBSERVATION - Corporate layoffs continue at a brisk pace - all pointing to an expected recession.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

More violence against Jews on colleges and university campuses. Latest being pro-Hamas supports assaulting Jews on the Harvard campus. In this case being lead by the editor or the Harvard Law and Review journal.

***
In response to pro-Hamas supporters tearing down the posters showing those kidnapped by Hamas, some have added razor blades to the posters - so as to cut the fingers of those trying to rip them down.

New listing of protests are being organized for this coming weekend. IF Hezbollah jumps into the war with both feet, I expect much more energetic and violent actions targeting jews and jewish associated organizations and business.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.

A Jordanian national living in Houston was arrested earlier this month for unlawful possession of a firearm. According to court documents, 20-year-old Sohaib Abuayyash had trained with others of a “radical mindset” to “possibly commit an attack”. FBI Director Christopher Wray said a Houston man had been studying how to build bombs and posted to social media his support for killing Jewish people. Rumors suggest Wray was referring to Abuayyash.

***
Republicans are raising the alarm over a possible terror threat to the country after Border Patrol agents caught illegal border crossers carrying explosives. Republican senators have sounded the alarm on the Biden administration’s border policies after Border Patrol agents caught illegal border crossers who were carrying explosive devices that Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said were “tailor-made for terrorism.”

Several days ago, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents seized illegal immigrants carrying with them improvised explosive devices that Mr. Barrasso said were the “size of cannonballs” and were “tailor-made for terrorism.”

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/republicans-raise-terror-alarm-after-illegal-immigrants-caught-with-explosive-devices-5520541?utm_source=epochHG&utm_campaign=CFP&src_src=epochHG&src_cmp=CFP

OBSERVATION - There are plenty of other sources here in the US for IED’s, just look back at the pressure cooker bombs used at the Boston Marathon years ago. Never the less, this is highly concerning, pointing to the desire of these illegals to even consider bringing these weapons across the border.
The report does not say from what region / country these terrorists came from. Besides the threat of islamic terror, they could have also been supporting the expanding mexican drug cartel operations in the US.

***
Red shopping carts full of green bags and a big red X are being spotted tied up on the streets all over NYC. This is not being reported on, but it does raise questions during this period of heightened threat from terrorism. Police are reportedly investigation but they have little to go on. The green bags are sealed in larger, clear bags, in an orderly fashion and reportedly are empty.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

According to a Pentagon press release, the military working toward a modern variant of the B61 nuclear gravity bomb, called the B61-13, but the initiative is awaiting congressional authorization and appropriation. “Today’s announcement is reflective of a changing security environment and growing threats from potential adversaries,”

OBSERVATION - Our inventory of nuclear weapons is sorely out of date and a new generation is needed to counter emerging threats.

***
An unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile failed early Wednesday morning due to an anomaly during a test launch.
According to the Air Force Global Strike Command, the unarmed Minuteman III missile was “safely terminated” by Space Launch Delta 30, during its test launch at approximately 12:01 a.m.

OBSERVATION - These are routine tests of the Minuteman rockets to ensure readiness. Haven’t tracked their failure rate over the years, but they are old and rapidly going out of date. US is developing a replacement rocket, but deployment is still many years down the road.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

A great deal of activity concerning Fauci and transferring wuhan virus to a research lab here in MONTANA! This occurred a year prior to the breakout of the disease. There were numerous concerns raised about the lab many years ago when it was set up. Now appears those concerns were justified.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Amid an unprecedented wave of anti-Semitism all over America, the Biden White House decided that now was the time to announce the “first ever national strategy to counter Islamophobia”

- 60% of hate crimes last year targeted Jews.

- Just 9% targeted Muslims.

OBSERVATION - It is being reported that this effort has been in the works for months, but its timing couldn’t be worse. This is one of the most anti-semitic administrations in years and as evidenced by biden throwing literally billions at Iran and Hamas. biden is also facing an internal schism over his quick and aggressive (for him anyway) support of Israel against Hamas.

***
On Wednesday night, the House took up a series of votes to censure Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI). The resolution to censure Tlaib was killed when the motion was tabled, with 23 Republicans joining the democrats and another 13 not voting at all.

OBSERVATION - Haven’t the time to check and see if these are the same republicans who voted against Jordan to become speaker. If so, they need doubly primaries out.

***
The Department of Commerce (DOC) is apparently coercing its employees to espouse Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) ideology and incorporate it into their work.

A memorandum was released by the DOC on October 16 detailing ways in which DEI is a necessary facet of work for DOC employees and how to incorporate it into their daily work routine.

“[T]hese duties are of such importance that acceptable performance in these activities are required for acceptable performance in the position,” the memorandum says of activities related to DEI, suggesting that failure to accept and promote DEI ideology will hurt an employee’s performance review.
The memorandum lays out eight ways in which employees of the DOC might be expected to actively promote and engage in DEI while on the job. These include taking the opportunity to “communicate the importance of DEIA efforts and provide tools and resources that demonstrate support for these initiatives” and to “implement policies, programs, and a work environment that promote diversity and inclusion.”

https://mrctv.org/blog/evan-poellinger/department-commerce-forces-employees-swear-fealty-dei-agenda

OBSERVATION - Cross reference to CW2. Working for the govt, you have to be prepared to deal with all kinds of crap like this. It is how it perpetuates the agenda that is rejected by the population at large. It only serves to widen the gaps in the country - not heal them.

Cyber attacks/warfare –

Critical infrastructure operators in the U.S. are stepping up security for “potential onslaught” of Iranian cyberattacks — Politico

OBSERVATION - Iranian hackers have already been poking around US cyber realm for many years. It is one area that Iran can hit as likely a part of a broader attack on the US.

Illegal Immigration –

The marvelous sanctuary cities of Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles and New York have urgently requested to meet with biden about getting federal support or resources in managing these migrants. They are begging for $5 BILLION to deal with the problem they welcomed with open arms. biden currently is looking at shelling out $1.4 billion.

China –

Taiwan said Wednesday that China sent 43 military aircraft and seven ships near the self-ruled island, the latest sign that Beijing plans no let-up in its campaign of harassment, threats and intimidation.

IN RELATED - The U.S. destroyer USS Rafael Peralta and a Royal Canadian Navy frigate HMCS Ottawa transited the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, the U.S. 7th Fleet said in a statement, making their third joint transit in the region since June.

OBSERVATION - This is less reported here due to other events, but Chinese incursions have been maintained at a relatively high level ever since pelosi visited the island. These incursions cut both ways. It keeps Taiwan’s military stressed, degrading their readiness. OTOH, it is tipping China’s hand as to possible tactics and objectives it will use to regain control of the island.

***
China and the United States have agreed to hold nuclear arms control talks next week, the first since the Obama administration
These discussions aim to prevent a three-way arms race but don’t mark the start of formal negotiations for limiting nuclear weapons
A meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi is planned for November. Recent diplomatic efforts have been made to improve U.S.-China relations

OBSERVATION - China knows the US is in a position of weakness and confusion on foreign policy. They will lead the US negotiators down a merry path, eventually getting everything they want, and the US captivating to everything.

North/South Korea –

South Korean intelligence says that North Korea has shipped 1 million rounds of artillery shells to Russia. This is estimated to equate to about 2 months of artillery consumption by the Russians.

Japan –

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is heading to the Philippines for a pre-ASEAN summit meeting with Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The two leaders are expected to discuss regional security issues, reaffirm their Strategic Partnership, and discuss economic and cultural exchanges.

OBSERVATION - Japan probably recognizes that the US in its present form, is unreliable and that it must forge its own regional agreements and pacts to counter the ongoing Chinese aggressive territorial push in the region.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

*****

Russian Foreign Ministry: Israel’s call for its citizens to leave the North Caucasus region is “anti-Russian”. This call is in response to the large moslem rampage looking to lynch any jews it could find and held an Israeli airliner hostage for a while.

***
Israel does not have the right to defend itself, Russia’s representative to the United Nations said on Wednesday.

The United States and its allies are hypocritical for talking “about Israel’s alleged right for self-defense, which, as an occupying state, it does not have, as was confirmed by the [U.N.’s] International Court [of Justice] consultative ruling in 2004,” Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya told a U.N. General Assembly special session on the Israel-Hamas war.

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Its official now, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a bill to revoke Russia’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), citing the need to establish parity with the US.
NOTE - Russia has given no evidence of planning to conduct new nuclear tests, but leaving the treaty does leave this door open to them.

Logistics –
South Korean intelligence says that North Korea has shipped 1 million rounds of artillery shells to Russia

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian artillery along the eastern and southern fronts appear to have stepped up their shelling to the highest level I’ve seen in awhile. Other action on the ground is still relatively static.

Avdiivka Front -
Reports that Ukraine forces are exploiting the poorly defended flank of the Russian forces salient on the northern side of Avdiivka, to pinch it off.

OUTLOOK - Continued status quo along all fronts. Most battles will be to secure better tactical terrain before the rains come in force. Looking at rumors that Russia is attempting to put together another offensive attempt in the eastern fronts.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israeli forces have effectively cut N Gaza from S Gaza.

- Increasing calls by Hamas for the ‘resistance’ forces to up their attacks on Israel and the US

- Speculation continues over what the leader of Hezbollah will say tomorrow.

GENERAL ——————————-

The Israeli military said it had deployed missile boats in the Red Sea on Wednesday as reinforcements, a day after the Iran-aligned Houthi movement said it had launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. The Houthi’s claim to have fired dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles and drones at Israel. Those efforts have done little to no damage on Israel, but have hit Egyptian and Jordanian territories.

Israeli videos show an Arrow ABM system taking a Houthi BM out, while another shows the shoot down of a Houthi cruise missile by an Israeli F35i.

***
News video by a Russian correspondent - date uncertain - of some of the features of the tunnels in Gaza was released. These are complex structures buried as much as nearly 200 feet below the surface, with extensive power and other features giving the forces several months supply with which to stay hidden and protected underground. Just how secure these bunkers are under the present conditions is not certain as they were designed based upon previous Israeli actions limited to aerial bombardment, and not Israeli boots on the ground. Under these conditions they are vulnerable to many measures.

***
Ghazi Hamad, a member of Hamas’ political bureau and a spokesman for the Iran-backed terror organization, told Lebanon’s LBC TV in an Arabic language interview on Oct. 24 that Israel “must be finished.” “We must teach Israel a lesson, and we will do this again and again,” Hamad said. “[The Oct. 7 massacre] is just the first time and there will be a second, a third, a fourth”

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Israeli armored units have pushed to the coast of Gaza, effectively cutting the territory in half. Forces in the north continued to press Hamas south. Systematic location and destruction of Hamas underground facilities continues. Fierce fighting with Hamas elements has locally broken out as they are flushed to the surface.

Along with the ground action, the IAF continued to hit targets, principally in N Gaza.

Hamas et al, managed to get fewer and fewer rockets into the air towards Tel Aviv and central Israel.

***
Hamas sent a group of around 100 women and children to act as human shields during a battle with Israeli forces on Tuesday at the terror group’s Central Jabaliya Battalion compound.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah and Israel continue to trade fire across the border.

The commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, Esmail Quaani, visited Lebanon to coordinate with Hezbollah concerning the conflict with Israel on Wednesday, the Lebanese al-Jadeed news reported on Wednesday.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Relatively quiet since IAF airstrikes hit Hezbollah and Syrian forces positions recently.

Iranian backed militias continue to launch what I consider to be harassment attacks, firing one or two drones/rockets at positions. The goal is to wear down US forces by keeping them in bomb shelters and unable to accomplish other tasks. US counter air strikes have put some fear in these groups, but have been insufficient as a deterrence.

WEST BANK——————————-

The Israeli army continues a campaign of arrests and raids in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Egyptian Foreign Ministry: Preparations to facilitate the evacuation of 7,000 people who hold foreign nationalities from the Gaza Strip.
NOTE- At last scan Americans are NOT on that list as Hamas has denied them exit yesterday. Initial reports indicate that this has been corrected. The Gaza border authority released a list of foreign nationals on Thursday, which included 400 Americans, who are permitted to leave Gaza using the Rafah border crossing.

***
The US, Egypt, and Israel are talking about what kind of security forces to place in Gaza once the war is over to prevent the resurgence of elements like Hamas and to protect money/materials sent to rebuild the infrastructure from coming back into the hands of Hamas or any successor.

***
Chile and Colombia recalled their ambassadors to Israel as they criticized the Israeli military offensive against Hamas militants. This follows Bolivia’s move yesterday. Bolivia, Chile and Colombia all have leftist governments.
Bahrain has reportedly expelled the Israeli Ambassador while also halting its economic participation with the country.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Rate of Israeli ground activity appears slow, but is actually due to the thoroughness of effort to identify and clear tunnels and Hamas resistance and military features. The big squeeze on the stronghold of Hamas - Gaza City - is about to kick off in earnest over the coming days.

The vulnerability of tunnels noted above under “general” above is being exploited by the IDF. An Israeli officer reported said - Gaza terrorists will be dying in tunnels as IDF collapses them; Hamas made a mistake by hiding in underground zone with no escape routes; hundreds of shafts & tunnels destroyed by engineering corps & Air Force so far. Hamas et al misjudged Israel’s response and its tunnel ‘warfare’ plan in not up to snuff in the current operation. It will still be a difficult fight for Israel, but one where Hamas has handicapped themselves.

Eyes continue to be on Hezbollah and whether they are going to live up to their bluster and threats. Same with Iran, as both are expected to announce their next actions this coming Friday if Israel doesn’t stop its ground offensive. As the region is about 12 hours or so ahead of us, we may know the contents later this evening.

Continued pleas from many sectors for a humanitarian “cease fire” are being categorically rejected by Israel. Historically, Israel has yielded to these demands, but Hamas’ terror attack on Oct 7 shattered any similar response this time. The Israeli govt is well aware that Hamas will use any ceasefire to regroup, in an effort to stop the momentum and initiative Israel current has.

Iran –

Iran continues to threaten direct action against both Israel and the US.

Iraq -

More threats from militia factions saying Islamic Resistance in Iraq decided to liberate Iraq from all foreign military presence and there will be no standing down. Sadr has been calling for the U.S embassy to close too.

OBSERVATION -Though belonging to the same sect of islam as Iran does, Sadr has been more nationalistic in his stances. In this instance he is aligning himself with Iran’s goals.

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

Pakistan is in the process of forcing 1.7 million Afghanis out of the country. This in response to the numerous terror attacks perpetuated by Afghani terror groups based out of Afghanistan.

Surprisingly - global arabs and related are silent on this action.

BREAKING——— BREAKING————BREAKING

Quick look at Nasrallah’s anticipated speech with some key outtakes under Israel below. It looks like a lot of threats but no apparent action above what Hezbollah has been doing along the border. Will take a second look later today when the full transcript is out.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has received more than 62,900 comments on its proposed Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.
The proposed standards, which were announced in July, require achieving an average of approximately 58 miles per gallon for passenger cars and light duty pickup trucks by 2032, with even higher incremental standards after that. Heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans would need to meet a 10% fuel efficiency gain every year beginning in 2030.

OBSERVATION - The US’ part in taking down the global economy as these are impossible standards to achieve apart from electric vehicles. Even hybrids struggle at the 58 mpg goal. It is doubtful that under the current regime that the comments against will even be given any consideration, leading opponents to go to court to stop this apparent regulatory overreach. Until court ordered stops to the plan, the auto industry will be forced to make changes to meet the standards.

***
At a recent conference, RFK Jr. called for a gov-run “smart grid” that could be easily turned on and off by the U.S. government.

OBSERVATION - Serious weapon that the regime could use on its citizens. This would take years to set up and establish, thankfully, but shows where the globalists and their minion nations are headed.

Economy –

The markets are currently happy with no rate increase by the Fed.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Salon Mag article - “MAGA and Christian nationalism: Bigger threat
to America than Hamas could ever be”

OBSERVATION - The left continues to demonize the right, establishing for their own uses, standards to justify future violence by leftists against the right.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.

If Hezbollah declares war on Israel, expect islamic cells to begin disruptions here of a type that isn’t certain yet. I would venture to guess that non-lethal attacks would be the lead off as push back from lethal attacks would be fierce. Keep your head on a swivel and make sure you have prepped for power and other outages.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) and the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group deployed on Oct. 12. The CSG is operating in the East China Sea near Daito Island in the Ryukyus Islands, according to ship spotters.

USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) and other ships with the Reagan Carrier Strike Group made a port call in Manila, Republic of the Philippines from Oct 28 to Nov. 1. The CSG is underway in the Western Pacific.

The Dwight D. Eisenhower CSG is in the Mediterranean and headed to U.S. Central Command.

***
The US Senate has voted to confirm Admiral Lisa Franchetti’s nomination to lead the Navy. Franchetti will be the first woman to serve as the Navy’s top officer as well the first to serve as a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Franchetti is a surface warfare officer who has commanded at all levels, including a naval destroyer and two stints as an aircraft carrier strike group commander.

OBSERVATION - May sound sexist but here it goes. Women in today’s military are promoted on basis of gender and are highly protected in the commands they take. That said, following 0bama’s purge of the officer corps and the current generation of senior officers more aligned with woke doctrine than fight preparation, I am concerned about ALL general officers.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Democrats recently tucked a secret provision into internal House rules that grants lawmakers access to an optional $34,000 annual subsidy to pay for their housing and meal expenses.

OBSERVATION - How in the world did the republicans let that get into the rules!!!!!!

***
FBI launches investigation into alleged corruption in Mayor Eric Adams’s 2021 election campaign over illegal donations from Turkey. Adams unexpectedly turned around from his trip to DC to petition biden along with other mayors for help dealing with the democrat caused immigration disaster.

OBSERVATION - His key financial campaign officer was the first hit. He could be in deep kimchee.

Biden / Harris Watch –
Push back on the regime for its anti-islamophobia efforts - to appease the radical islamic elements they’ve allowed into the country.

Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Iranian supported cyberattacks on US infrastructure, banks, etc. are expected should Iran / Hezbollah jump into the Gaza war with both feet.

Illegal Immigration –

Reports of the largest surge of illegals working their way to the border.

North/South Korea –

SK intel reports that in addition to artillery ammo, NK may have supplied tactical ballistic missiles to Russia.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
In the largest attack in a while, Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 of 40 Shahed drones and 1 Kh-59 missile. Not sure the reason behind the poor showing against the Shahed, could be related to rumors that Iran shifting to a jet engine from a propeller engine. Target areas primarily in western Ukraine. Another swarm hit the Kharkiv and Odesa regions.

Action on the fronts continue to be relatively static.

OUTLOOK - Continued status quo along all fronts.

Europe / NATO General –

Reports that many European countries are making plans for mass deportations of unruly migrants as pro-Hamas protests continue. Some are willing to ignore EU declarations that such deportations are ‘illegal’ under EU rules.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

-IDF chief of staff says that Israeli soldiers are now operating inside Gaza City and are surrounding it from several directions.

- Stage being set up in Beirut, Lebanon, for Hezbollah leader Nasrallah’s speech today.

GENERAL ——————————-

BREAKING . . . . BREAKING
Nasrallah’s speech
* “The world will discover that most of those who say they were civilians killed by Hamas were killed by the Israeli army”

* Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah said the Oct 7 attack was led by Hamas, and the decision was 100% Palestinian, and was done in complete secrecy, contrary to what some ‘trouble makers’ are claiming.

This is major, Hezbollah just distanced themselves from the attack! It also contradicts the claim that the attack was strictly Israeli in origin.

*“The fear we are seeing from the from the US and Israel about a major war and a regional war, is a possibility and they really need to consider it”
“There is concern that this front will spiral into a comprehensive war, and the enemy is taking every account of that”
“The possibility of the Lebanese front sliding into a wide battle is a realistic possibility”
“Israel must be concerned about the expansion of war and escalation”
NOTE - Transferring fear of escalation onto Israel / US, deflecting from Hezbollah/Iranian fears

* Arab and Islamic countries and governments must make every effort to stop the aggression against Gaza
Arab and Islamic countries must sever relations with Israel and withdraw ambassadors and stop oil and gas to Israel
Has Arab impotence reached the point of being unable to bring humanitarian aid into Gaza and remove the wounded?
NOTE - Nothing being stated as to how Hezbollah will respond where these arab nations have ‘failed’.

* “We are here to support gaza and we are attacking based on what happen in Gaza”
“All options are on the table and we can go to them at any time”
NOTE - It appears that Hezbollah is going to blink on getting fully into the war.

* “Hezbollah is already waging a real war against Israel”
“Some want us to start a full scale war, and for them the actions on the northern border might be seen as limited, but they are definitely not”.
NOTE - They are claiming the skirmishes on the Lebanese / Israel border are a “real” war. This is an effort to save face.

***
Netanyahu and Blinken meet at the Ministry of Defense headquarters in Tel Aviv. Blinken asks for Israel to protect gazan civilians in the fight.

***
Two days ago, Hezbollah and Iran issued an ultimatum to Israel and to the US: Stop the aggression against Gaza “by Dawn on Friday” or face all-out war starting Friday afternoon. That deadline passed at 5:33 AM local time in Israel today. Yet the fighting goes on.
Israel is 6 hours AHEAD of US eastern time (I made a mistake and said 12 hours yesterday), to the awaited Hezbollah announcement is just hours away.

***
RUMINT. CNN reports that US intelligence currently assesses that Iran and its proxies are seeking to avoid a wider war with Israel
NOTE - I’ve said several times it seems Hezbollah has been reluctant to get fired up about entering the war. There has been some observations on the OSINT side that Hamas jumped the gun with its invasion of Israel to claim glory for a much larger, planned operation involving Hezbollah and Iranian backed militias. These elements and Iran were not ready for this confrontation and Hamas’ premature attack has now alerted Israel and with the 360,000 reserves that have sprung into action (far fewer are fighting Hamas in Gaza) they have lost the element of surprise and numbers. Further note comes out that when Hamas attacked, Israel though it was a ruse and moved forces northward towards this expected attack by Hezbollah - the major reason for such a delayed response in the south.

***
Rumors of that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have been provided with Iranian land-attack cruise missiles which will likely be used against U.S. and/or Israeli targets in the near future.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

IDF continues to systematically destroy Hamas facilities and soldiers in N Gaza as it tightens the noose around Gaza City.

Hamas et al still manages to fire rockets, but at substantially smaller amounts and rates.

IAF continues to target Hamas bases - focusing on identified underground facilities.

The link below is to a figure depicting the disposition of forces in Gaza about 12 hours ago.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F98OITZXgAAbEx_?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

***
The Leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh is reportedly set to arrive in Iran sometime tonight.

Military reporter Ron Ben-Yishai (@ynetalerts) reports -
Hamas realizing Gaza City defense lines collapsing; within hours, IDF may be able to reach any point in city, move closer to leadership hideouts; Hamas chiefs in Gaza under serious threat, prompting Haniyeh to urgently fly to Iran.
NOTE - Ynet is very pro-israel and may have a high degree of propaganda associated with it. However, the core of this story seems valid and similar fleeing of islamic leadership to ‘safe’ areas is a historical fact. Main Hamas leadership reside in Qatar, not Gaza for instance. The collapse of Gaza City defensive lines is also being reported by the IDF.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

People have started gathering in Dahiyeh, in southern Beirut, ahead of Nasrallah’s speech

***
A large number of Beirut schools have taken the decision to close their doors tomorrow for fear of any ‘sudden security development’. Other schools have also decided to keep their schools open until 12 noon

***
Hezbollah has announced yesterday that they launched rockets, artillery, drones, and anti-tank guided missiles against at least 19 Israeli military bases along the border with southern Lebanon including Al-Marj, Al-Malikiah, Jal Dwair, Ra’s Al-Naqoura, Zar’it, Duhaira, and Zibdin; the attacks are claimed by the terrorist organization to have caused significant damage and casualties to Israeli forces.

Extensive Israeli strikes on Hezbollah were the response with fighter jets, attack helicopters, tanks & artillery hitting multiple targets in Lebanon; command centers, weapons depots, launch sites & military compounds bombed.

This action is an escalation in previous combat along the border.

***
Hezbollah claimed to have used explosive drones for the first time during its attacks on the Lebanese border.

Unconfirmed reports from Syrian sources that are saying that thousands of Iranian-Backed militia members have arrived in Southern Lebanon over the last week and that tens of thousands are still staging inside of Syria near the border with Lebanon and the Golan Heights.
NOTE - I posted the rumors of this force being moved to Syria a couple of weeks ago. As the source is Syrian, I suspect that the numbers are highly inflated. But Israel is very aware of their presence and movements.

***
The President of the Christian-Based “Lebanese Forces” political party in Lebanon, Samir Geagea has now called for Hezbollah to withdraw from the south of the country and return its control to the Lebanese Armed Forces; he further stated that if Hezbollah decides to enter the war in Israel they will be committing a major crime against the Lebanese people.

OBSERVATION - Hezbollah is seen as a major reason for the economic chaos that has enveloped Lebanon in recent years. Herbollah has tremendous influence over the govt it has mostly put in place. However, on a more regional / state level there are elements of resistance and if Hezbollah enters the war, they may have to face a level of civil war within Lebanon - creating a two front war against them.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

US has intelligence sources report that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to provide the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah with a Russian-made missile defense system, according to people familiar with the intelligence. The SA-22 missile system reportedly will be delivered and possibly manned by residual Wagner forces.

OBSERVATION - Bad move by Assad, it will clearly place him in the crosshairs if thing get froggy.

WEST BANK——————————-

The Israeli army continues a campaign of arrests and raids in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Islamic resistance in Iraq group says they going to escalate their campaign (in attacking US bases in Iraq/Syria)

***
Jordan informed Yemen that it will not allow its airspace to be used against Israel.
Saudi Arabia also opposed Yemen’s request to use its airspace against Israel.

***
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has just announced that next week they will be beginning a new phase in their operation to fight for the people in Palestine and in confronting the enemies (Israel and the United States); they state that this phase will be much more severe and widespread against the bases of the enemies in the region.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel will continue its attacks in N Gaza to eliminate Hamas from that portion of land before turning south or turning to confront Hezbollah in a more substantial way.

initial read of Nasrallah’s speech is a lot of threats and no substance. They are trying to separate themselves from Hamas to a degree and saying that the very limited attacks are ‘full war’. They decided to cut bait.

Hamas is losing ground fast. Their bunker tactic was designed to hold out against an aerial blitz like those in the past. However, the strength of the ground invasion was not planned for and they are paying the price. Israel is also not playing by the same rules as in the past and is taking the fight to areas Hamas is used to hiding in - schools, mosques, hospitals, etc - using civilians as a shield. This isn’t working for them either.

Hezbollah’s entrance into the war is a contingency Israel has built into its current operations. Revelation of drones by Hezbollah may be a new development, but doesn’t look like a game changer. Same too the build up of militias in Syria/Lebanon. These are light forces with no armor - just leg infantry. This exposes them to Israeli air and artillery superiority - especially if they attempt to invade, then Israeli tanks and armor will up the bet. Israel has the vast bulk of its called up 30,000 reservists in reserve to counter this threat from Lebanon and Syria.

Iran apparently failed to fully grasp the force of IDF ground assault in Gaza; Tehran now understands that situation in Gaza is graver than initially estimated; regime appears to be pressing Hezbollah to intensify attacks on Israel. This substantially increases the chances of a misstep by either Hezbollah or Iran. This could cause the scope of the war to expand substantially.

Iran –

Iran continues to threaten direct action against both Israel and the US.

Iranian President:
‘’America is the main reason why the Israelis commit crimes in Gaza’’

Iraq -

Iranian backed militias threaten to expand attacks on US/coalition bases in Iraq.

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Saudi Arabia –

See Israel above.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.

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