Globalism / Great Reset –
Bill Gates is still pushing his digital ID programs that are essentially tools to that make “governments more efficient at what they are already doing,” according to the Financial Times, “and can be used as a tool to suppress or discriminate against certain citizens.” This time the Gates development and rollout of a government-backed digital ID program was announced in Kenya after a recent series of “closed-door meetings” with President Ruto. It includes a biometric vaccination system for newborns to replace birth certificates while also helping to track children from birth to 5 years old to ensure all children receive their vaccines.
OBSERVATION - This guy is taking an ever deepening plunge into the dark side.
***
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its semi-annual “Global Financial Stability Report,” stressing that central banks around the world may need to keep interest rates high to battle inflation but higher rates will add pressure to economies.
OBSERVATION - They are also spreading hopium the there will be a ‘soft landing’ of the global economy as well. Continued high rates will continue to stress key market areas that can fail easier and easier as the press to stop inflation continues.
Economy –
Consumer confidence fell for the third straight month in October to its lowest level in five months, a key survey of U.S. households showed Tuesday.
The closely followed index of consumer confidence compiled by the Conference Board fell to 102.6 from a revised 104.3 in September. Both the assessment of the present situation and the outlook of consumers declined.
The expectations index fell slightly and remains below the threshold of 80 that historically signals a recession within the next year. The Conference Board describes consumer fears of a recession as “elevated” and says it expects a “short and shallow economic contraction” in the first half of next year.
OBSERVATION - The pocket books of Americans disagree with the happy talk from biden et al on the state of our economy.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Continued anti -Israel protests, expected to pick up again as the weekend approaches. Conflict between LGBT supporters of Hamas and islamic radicals continue to develop rifts between the cooperation between the two groups.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
WARNING - Iran through its supported proxy militias and organizations are saying that if Israel isn’t forced into cease fire by the 5th of November, they will launch all out attacks on Israel and its supporters. This includes threats against targets in the US as well as overseas.
*****
FBI Director Chris Wray says Iran has made assassination attempts against “dissidents and high-ranking current and former U.S. government officials, including right here on American soil.”
***
Patrick Dai, a Cornell student, has been arrested for making online threats to Jewish students on campus. Accord to his Linkedin, He worked as a “safety officer” at Cornell. Dai faces a maximum term of five years in prison, a $250,000 fine, and a term of supervised release of up to three years if convicted.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Massive airlift continues to bring arms and materials into the middle east.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Former VP at Pfizer, Dr. Mike Yeadon, expressed again outside the UK Parliament that mRNA-based COVID vaccines were designed intentionally to harm, maim, kill, and reduce human fertility.
***
Evidence coming out that Fauci experimented with Covid for more than a year before outbreak
OBSERVATION - Increasing the pile of evidence that wuhan was a deliberate release into society and directed by this vile person.
POLITICAL FRONT –
IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel faced a grilling by lawmakers on Capitol Hill this past week, where he hinted that there’s a chance that the agency will—contrary to its repeated pledges—increase tax audits of Americans earning under $400,000.
The question of whether the IRS will use some of the $80 billion or so funding boost to increase tax enforcement of people making less than $400,000 has been a contentious issue.
IRS and Treasury Department officials have pledged not to increase audit rates for this group of Americans, while Republicans and others have argued that this pledge is either false or wishful thinking.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has directed the IRS not to raise audit rates above historical levels for this group of taxpayers, while Mr. Werfel has repeatedly made the same pledge.
But a watchdog recently cast doubt on this promise, warning that Americans making less than $400,000 could inadvertently get caught in an enforcement dragnet because the IRS doesn’t have a clear definition of “high-income” and its enforcers use an outdated $200,000 high-income threshold as their default.
OBSERVATION - It wasn’t rocket science to realize that there aren’t enough superrich in this country to keep 18,000 gainfully occupied.
Illegal Immigration –
In Senate hearing, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas confirms over 600,000 known gotaways at the border in fiscal year 2023 while being questioned by Roger Marshall. Mayorkas also repeatedly refused to answer Marshall’s questions asking how many illegal immigrants have ties to known terror groups, saying only that DHS takes “appropriate enforcement action” to any national security threats. Marshall also asked when and if DHS would provide the countries of origin of people arrested at the border on the FBI terror watchlist - Mayorkas responded that that data could be provided in an “appropriate setting” (non public)
OBSERVATION - Why is this slime ball still in office? More blocking of critical information to congress and the American people.
China –
China’s manufacturing activity crashed in October, posting numbers far lower than the slight dip many outside observers expected.
Construction activity slowed as well, pointing to continued structural weakness in the Chinese economy – specifically, the weakness that Chinese consumer spending is not rebounding as quickly as the regime in Beijing expected after the end of brutal coronavirus lockdowns.
OBSERVATION - China’s economic woes continue and it is rippling throughout the global market, given the reliance on China for materials and goods that are still high post wuhan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
*****
Logistics –
An explosion of unknown cause has rocked one of Russia’s largest ammunition manufacturing plants, according to officials in central Russia’s Perm region, which lies about 1,000km east of Moscow.
“Windows and doors were broken [but] there are no victims, there is no threat to the populace,” a statement said. “The incident did not affect the plant’s production process.”
NOTE - How a major ammo plant can have a mega explosion and not affect the plant is mind boggling.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Things relatively static overnight. Ukraine has retaken some the key tactical sites around Avdiivka it had earlier lost.
Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.
Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 18 of 20 Shahed drones and Kh-59 cruise missile. Russian targeting western Ukraine and the Odesa regions. The Kremenchuk, Poltava region in eastern Ukraine was also targeted.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukraine forces have consolidated critical high ground (elevation 142 M) west of Robotyne. Progress being made incrementally but steady in the Robotyne -Verbove battle space.
Avdiivka Front -
More analysis of the Russian attempt at an offensive at Avdiivka by geoconfirmed on X, vehicle losses noted.
99 Losses are from the first wave of the offensive:
Between 9 and 13 October.
94 losses are from the second wave of the offensive:
Between 14 and 23 October.
4 confirmed and 18 potential losses between 24 and 31 October.
Essentially 3 battalions lost in two waves of the offensive attacks in October. And Russia essentially has nothing to show for it.
OUTLOOK -
A lot of the news out of Ukraine has been muted by the news out of Gaza.
Hottest spot continues to be Avdiivka with indications that Ukraine is retaking territory lost to Russia during the past three weeks of its offensive.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Houthi leaders in Yemen announce enterance into the Gaza war, launched numerous ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones towards Israel.
- Increasing speculation that Hezbollah’s big announcement this Friday is to announce full scale war with Israel
- Israel encountering pockets of Hamas terrorists, resulting in fierce fighting.
- IAF continues to make steady progress to encircle Gaza City.
- Yemen Houthi announces it is at war with Israel.
NOTE - The Houthi are not the recognized rulers of Yemen, they do control most of the country.
GENERAL ——————————-
The Arrow air defense system intercepted a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) over the Red Sea likely inbound for Eilat in southern Israel.
RUMINT - Hezbollah and Iran have threatened that if the war does not end by dawn on Friday, the axis of resistance will be the side that directly intervenes in the war, as well as Hezbollah.
***
Israel deployed warships in Red Sea to counter threats from Yemen. This is a defensive step, but some indicate that sooner or later things will start exploding in Yemen as well.
***
The Hamas terror group is blocking hundreds of Americans who are stuck inside the Gaza Strip from leaving the territory, a senior defense official said Monday. The number is estimated to be about 500 US citizens. This by definition, makes them hostages.
***
Hamas is the elected government of the Gaza Strip. It acts as a warlord gang, not as a government. It is essentially ISIS or al Qaeda with the trappings of a state wrapped around it. When asked about sheltering gazans in their underground network, a Hamas official replied that it is the responsibility of the United Nations to protect them.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel confirms it carried out airstrike at Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza, despite the presence of civilians, to kill senior Hamas commander. The bomb triggered substantial secondary explosions and resulting collapse of an underground tunnel network created a large crater.
According to Israeli Defense Officials, at least 2 Armored and Infantry Divisions consisting of over 20,000 IDF troops and hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles have entered the Northern Gaza Strip since the expansion of ground operations in the strip was announced on October 27th.
NOTE - Israel has a call-up of 360,000 Reservists on standby.
Israel appears to be attempting to encircle Gaza City and Northern Gaza from the south, north, and east. This is probably a strategy that Hamas did not expect.
The IDF is seemingly moving along Wadi Gaza towards the coast in an attempt to cut off north Gaza and surround Gaza City, while other units advance from the north near Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia towns. The link below is a depiction of the approximate disposition of Israeli forces so far.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9y5GiNXMAEse-q?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah and Israel continue to trade fire across the border. Forest fires are growing in S Lebanon as a result of shelling.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Relatively quiet since IAF airstrikes hit Hezbollah and Syrian forces positions recently.
WEST BANK——————————-
The Israeli army continues a campaign of arrests and raids in the West Bank and Jerusalem.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims responsibility for 2 suicide drones targeted Al-Tanaf base that hosts US forces, on the Iraqi/Syrian borders. Other US bases in the region have also been attacked.
The Rafah crossing has opened from Gaza for the first time since the Hamas attack in Israel on Oct. 7th. A small number of wounded Palestinians are being taken to Egypt for treatment and some foreign nationals or dual passport holders are also leaving.
Egypt has deployed tanks and armored vehicles on the border with the Gaza Strip
The country fears the arrival of tens of thousands of refugees from the conflict zone and allows only trucks with humanitarian aid across the border, reports Times of Israel.
Earlier, the Egyptian authorities said they would not accept Palestinian refugees.
Egypt is reiterating that is will not accept general migration of Gaza arabs out of the strip. “We, the Egyptians, are ready to sacrifice millions of lives so that nobody approaches a grain of sand”
Dual nationality citizens have reportedly begun leaving Gaza via Rafah Crossing into Egypt.
Turkish Minister of Health, Fahrettin Koca: We have made all preparations to establish 20 field hospitals both in the area near the Rafah border crossing and at El Arish Airport. We are waiting for security and permits to be granted
Social media reveal the wreckage of a Houthi Quds cruise missile in the southern region of Mudawwara, Ma’an, Jordan, approximately 1,500 km away from Yemen. Houthis have been dropping hints about targeting the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center in Dimona, Israel.
NOTE - Jordan earlier last week requested a US Patriot system.
Bolivia breaks off its diplomatic relations with Israel
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Things have reached a temporary plateau. Israel is continuing to press towards its objectives in Gaza, the only hindrance is the need to clear Hamas out methodically.
Once Gaza City is encircled, I would expect a similar, methodical push towards the center of the town. It will take months to achieve this.
Concern is ramping up over Hezbollah jumping in with both feet into the war. This potential Friday announcement has some Iranian proxy militias leaning forward in their foxholes, but I think the numbers are giving them pause.
Currently Israel has about 20K troops on the ground in Gaza - Israel is also sitting on 300K reserves, meaning that should Hezbollah get froggy, Israel has a substantial reserve force to address them. Also, the report that Israel has kept a significant amount of its aircraft power in reserve - just for Hezbollah.
The effect of Hezbollah and the army of resistance openly coming out is a definite increase in the scope of the fighting. And an increased threat of direct action by and against Iran. Again, it all depends on this statement on Friday.
This could be quite a chaotic weekend, keep alert.
Iran –
Iran’s Defense Minister issued a stern warning, stating that the U.S, which supports Israel, will undoubtedly face repercussions. He further cautioned European countries to be cautious and avoid incurring the ‘wrath of the global Muslim community.’
The Defense Minister emphasized that, unless the ongoing conflict ceases promptly, Israel and its allies will experience severe consequences.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Central / South America General-
Bolivia breaks off its diplomatic relations with Israel
OBSERVATION - It wasn’t rocket science to realize that there aren’t enough superrich in this country to keep 18,000 gainfully occupied.
Great one zilla... the reason the voice of traditional Americans matters is because we can do math...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Pascal Najadi, the son of World Economic Forum co-founder Hussain Najadi, called for the arrests of those responsible for the forced COVID-19 “vaccinations” of 5.7 billion people around the world, saying the injections are a bioweapon leading to “democide.”
“Democide” is a term coined a few decades ago that refers to government mass murder and extermination of civilian populations via either direct action or indifference.
“Everything evil in the world related to democide, unfortunately, comes from Geneva,” Najadi said as he listed the global organizations headquartered in Geneva that played major roles in mandating the COVID jab, which has proved deadly to an estimated 50 million souls around the globe and medically debilitating to tens of millions more.
OBSERVATION - This has been out there for a few days now. Many have called for the arrest of those associated with the wuhan plandemic. Here a definite former insider speaks out.
Economy –
ADP reported yesterday that the US economy added 113,000 jobs in October.
Analysts’ expectations were for a rise to +150k job additions in October, but for the 3rd straight month, ADP disappointed with a +113k print (+150k exp).
OBSERVATION - This speaks against the validity of a 4.3% GDP for the same period.
***
The US Federal Reserve has said it would hold benchmark interest rates steady at its current 22-year high, but left the door open to further hikes if the inflation rate accelerates. “The fact is the committee is not thinking about rate cuts right now at all,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told a press conference.
The decision to hold rates high was widely expected, given the Fed’s stated goal of slowing inflation to a long-term target of 2%.
OBSERVATION - The continued high rates are eating at the economic foundations of the country and in many ways doing more to damage it than inflation. No relief is sight until late 2024 at the earliest.
***
Charles Schwab has laid off 5% to 6% of its total headcount in a bid to cut rising costs, a company spokesperson said Wednesday.
The reduction amounts to between 1,795 and 2,154 people out of its 35,900-strong workforce.
“These were hard but necessary steps to ensure Schwab remains highly competitive,” the spokesperson said in an emailed statement.
OBSERVATION - Corporate layoffs continue at a brisk pace - all pointing to an expected recession.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
More violence against Jews on colleges and university campuses. Latest being pro-Hamas supports assaulting Jews on the Harvard campus. In this case being lead by the editor or the Harvard Law and Review journal.
***
In response to pro-Hamas supporters tearing down the posters showing those kidnapped by Hamas, some have added razor blades to the posters - so as to cut the fingers of those trying to rip them down.
New listing of protests are being organized for this coming weekend. IF Hezbollah jumps into the war with both feet, I expect much more energetic and violent actions targeting jews and jewish associated organizations and business.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
A Jordanian national living in Houston was arrested earlier this month for unlawful possession of a firearm. According to court documents, 20-year-old Sohaib Abuayyash had trained with others of a “radical mindset” to “possibly commit an attack”. FBI Director Christopher Wray said a Houston man had been studying how to build bombs and posted to social media his support for killing Jewish people. Rumors suggest Wray was referring to Abuayyash.
***
Republicans are raising the alarm over a possible terror threat to the country after Border Patrol agents caught illegal border crossers carrying explosives. Republican senators have sounded the alarm on the Biden administration’s border policies after Border Patrol agents caught illegal border crossers who were carrying explosive devices that Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said were “tailor-made for terrorism.”
Several days ago, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents seized illegal immigrants carrying with them improvised explosive devices that Mr. Barrasso said were the “size of cannonballs” and were “tailor-made for terrorism.”
OBSERVATION - There are plenty of other sources here in the US for IED’s, just look back at the pressure cooker bombs used at the Boston Marathon years ago. Never the less, this is highly concerning, pointing to the desire of these illegals to even consider bringing these weapons across the border.
The report does not say from what region / country these terrorists came from. Besides the threat of islamic terror, they could have also been supporting the expanding mexican drug cartel operations in the US.
***
Red shopping carts full of green bags and a big red X are being spotted tied up on the streets all over NYC. This is not being reported on, but it does raise questions during this period of heightened threat from terrorism. Police are reportedly investigation but they have little to go on. The green bags are sealed in larger, clear bags, in an orderly fashion and reportedly are empty.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
According to a Pentagon press release, the military working toward a modern variant of the B61 nuclear gravity bomb, called the B61-13, but the initiative is awaiting congressional authorization and appropriation. “Today’s announcement is reflective of a changing security environment and growing threats from potential adversaries,”
OBSERVATION - Our inventory of nuclear weapons is sorely out of date and a new generation is needed to counter emerging threats.
***
An unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile failed early Wednesday morning due to an anomaly during a test launch.
According to the Air Force Global Strike Command, the unarmed Minuteman III missile was “safely terminated” by Space Launch Delta 30, during its test launch at approximately 12:01 a.m.
OBSERVATION - These are routine tests of the Minuteman rockets to ensure readiness. Haven’t tracked their failure rate over the years, but they are old and rapidly going out of date. US is developing a replacement rocket, but deployment is still many years down the road.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
A great deal of activity concerning Fauci and transferring wuhan virus to a research lab here in MONTANA! This occurred a year prior to the breakout of the disease. There were numerous concerns raised about the lab many years ago when it was set up. Now appears those concerns were justified.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Amid an unprecedented wave of anti-Semitism all over America, the Biden White House decided that now was the time to announce the “first ever national strategy to counter Islamophobia”
- 60% of hate crimes last year targeted Jews.
- Just 9% targeted Muslims.
OBSERVATION - It is being reported that this effort has been in the works for months, but its timing couldn’t be worse. This is one of the most anti-semitic administrations in years and as evidenced by biden throwing literally billions at Iran and Hamas. biden is also facing an internal schism over his quick and aggressive (for him anyway) support of Israel against Hamas.
***
On Wednesday night, the House took up a series of votes to censure Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI). The resolution to censure Tlaib was killed when the motion was tabled, with 23 Republicans joining the democrats and another 13 not voting at all.
OBSERVATION - Haven’t the time to check and see if these are the same republicans who voted against Jordan to become speaker. If so, they need doubly primaries out.
***
The Department of Commerce (DOC) is apparently coercing its employees to espouse Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) ideology and incorporate it into their work.
A memorandum was released by the DOC on October 16 detailing ways in which DEI is a necessary facet of work for DOC employees and how to incorporate it into their daily work routine.
“[T]hese duties are of such importance that acceptable performance in these activities are required for acceptable performance in the position,” the memorandum says of activities related to DEI, suggesting that failure to accept and promote DEI ideology will hurt an employee’s performance review.
The memorandum lays out eight ways in which employees of the DOC might be expected to actively promote and engage in DEI while on the job. These include taking the opportunity to “communicate the importance of DEIA efforts and provide tools and resources that demonstrate support for these initiatives” and to “implement policies, programs, and a work environment that promote diversity and inclusion.”
https://mrctv.org/blog/evan-poellinger/department-commerce-forces-employees-swear-fealty-dei-agenda
OBSERVATION - Cross reference to CW2. Working for the govt, you have to be prepared to deal with all kinds of crap like this. It is how it perpetuates the agenda that is rejected by the population at large. It only serves to widen the gaps in the country - not heal them.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
Critical infrastructure operators in the U.S. are stepping up security for “potential onslaught” of Iranian cyberattacks — Politico
OBSERVATION - Iranian hackers have already been poking around US cyber realm for many years. It is one area that Iran can hit as likely a part of a broader attack on the US.
Illegal Immigration –
The marvelous sanctuary cities of Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles and New York have urgently requested to meet with biden about getting federal support or resources in managing these migrants. They are begging for $5 BILLION to deal with the problem they welcomed with open arms. biden currently is looking at shelling out $1.4 billion.
China –
Taiwan said Wednesday that China sent 43 military aircraft and seven ships near the self-ruled island, the latest sign that Beijing plans no let-up in its campaign of harassment, threats and intimidation.
IN RELATED - The U.S. destroyer USS Rafael Peralta and a Royal Canadian Navy frigate HMCS Ottawa transited the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, the U.S. 7th Fleet said in a statement, making their third joint transit in the region since June.
OBSERVATION - This is less reported here due to other events, but Chinese incursions have been maintained at a relatively high level ever since pelosi visited the island. These incursions cut both ways. It keeps Taiwan’s military stressed, degrading their readiness. OTOH, it is tipping China’s hand as to possible tactics and objectives it will use to regain control of the island.
***
China and the United States have agreed to hold nuclear arms control talks next week, the first since the Obama administration
These discussions aim to prevent a three-way arms race but don’t mark the start of formal negotiations for limiting nuclear weapons
A meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi is planned for November. Recent diplomatic efforts have been made to improve U.S.-China relations
OBSERVATION - China knows the US is in a position of weakness and confusion on foreign policy. They will lead the US negotiators down a merry path, eventually getting everything they want, and the US captivating to everything.
North/South Korea –
South Korean intelligence says that North Korea has shipped 1 million rounds of artillery shells to Russia. This is estimated to equate to about 2 months of artillery consumption by the Russians.
Japan –
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is heading to the Philippines for a pre-ASEAN summit meeting with Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The two leaders are expected to discuss regional security issues, reaffirm their Strategic Partnership, and discuss economic and cultural exchanges.
OBSERVATION - Japan probably recognizes that the US in its present form, is unreliable and that it must forge its own regional agreements and pacts to counter the ongoing Chinese aggressive territorial push in the region.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
*****
Russian Foreign Ministry: Israel’s call for its citizens to leave the North Caucasus region is “anti-Russian”. This call is in response to the large moslem rampage looking to lynch any jews it could find and held an Israeli airliner hostage for a while.
***
Israel does not have the right to defend itself, Russia’s representative to the United Nations said on Wednesday.
The United States and its allies are hypocritical for talking “about Israel’s alleged right for self-defense, which, as an occupying state, it does not have, as was confirmed by the [U.N.’s] International Court [of Justice] consultative ruling in 2004,” Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya told a U.N. General Assembly special session on the Israel-Hamas war.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Its official now, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a bill to revoke Russia’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), citing the need to establish parity with the US.
NOTE - Russia has given no evidence of planning to conduct new nuclear tests, but leaving the treaty does leave this door open to them.
Logistics –
South Korean intelligence says that North Korea has shipped 1 million rounds of artillery shells to Russia
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian artillery along the eastern and southern fronts appear to have stepped up their shelling to the highest level I’ve seen in awhile. Other action on the ground is still relatively static.
Avdiivka Front -
Reports that Ukraine forces are exploiting the poorly defended flank of the Russian forces salient on the northern side of Avdiivka, to pinch it off.
OUTLOOK - Continued status quo along all fronts. Most battles will be to secure better tactical terrain before the rains come in force. Looking at rumors that Russia is attempting to put together another offensive attempt in the eastern fronts.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israeli forces have effectively cut N Gaza from S Gaza.
- Increasing calls by Hamas for the ‘resistance’ forces to up their attacks on Israel and the US
- Speculation continues over what the leader of Hezbollah will say tomorrow.
GENERAL ——————————-
The Israeli military said it had deployed missile boats in the Red Sea on Wednesday as reinforcements, a day after the Iran-aligned Houthi movement said it had launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. The Houthi’s claim to have fired dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles and drones at Israel. Those efforts have done little to no damage on Israel, but have hit Egyptian and Jordanian territories.
Israeli videos show an Arrow ABM system taking a Houthi BM out, while another shows the shoot down of a Houthi cruise missile by an Israeli F35i.
***
News video by a Russian correspondent - date uncertain - of some of the features of the tunnels in Gaza was released. These are complex structures buried as much as nearly 200 feet below the surface, with extensive power and other features giving the forces several months supply with which to stay hidden and protected underground. Just how secure these bunkers are under the present conditions is not certain as they were designed based upon previous Israeli actions limited to aerial bombardment, and not Israeli boots on the ground. Under these conditions they are vulnerable to many measures.
***
Ghazi Hamad, a member of Hamas’ political bureau and a spokesman for the Iran-backed terror organization, told Lebanon’s LBC TV in an Arabic language interview on Oct. 24 that Israel “must be finished.” “We must teach Israel a lesson, and we will do this again and again,” Hamad said. “[The Oct. 7 massacre] is just the first time and there will be a second, a third, a fourth”
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli armored units have pushed to the coast of Gaza, effectively cutting the territory in half. Forces in the north continued to press Hamas south. Systematic location and destruction of Hamas underground facilities continues. Fierce fighting with Hamas elements has locally broken out as they are flushed to the surface.
Along with the ground action, the IAF continued to hit targets, principally in N Gaza.
Hamas et al, managed to get fewer and fewer rockets into the air towards Tel Aviv and central Israel.
***
Hamas sent a group of around 100 women and children to act as human shields during a battle with Israeli forces on Tuesday at the terror group’s Central Jabaliya Battalion compound.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah and Israel continue to trade fire across the border.
The commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, Esmail Quaani, visited Lebanon to coordinate with Hezbollah concerning the conflict with Israel on Wednesday, the Lebanese al-Jadeed news reported on Wednesday.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Relatively quiet since IAF airstrikes hit Hezbollah and Syrian forces positions recently.
Iranian backed militias continue to launch what I consider to be harassment attacks, firing one or two drones/rockets at positions. The goal is to wear down US forces by keeping them in bomb shelters and unable to accomplish other tasks. US counter air strikes have put some fear in these groups, but have been insufficient as a deterrence.
WEST BANK——————————-
The Israeli army continues a campaign of arrests and raids in the West Bank and Jerusalem.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egyptian Foreign Ministry: Preparations to facilitate the evacuation of 7,000 people who hold foreign nationalities from the Gaza Strip.
NOTE- At last scan Americans are NOT on that list as Hamas has denied them exit yesterday. Initial reports indicate that this has been corrected. The Gaza border authority released a list of foreign nationals on Thursday, which included 400 Americans, who are permitted to leave Gaza using the Rafah border crossing.
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The US, Egypt, and Israel are talking about what kind of security forces to place in Gaza once the war is over to prevent the resurgence of elements like Hamas and to protect money/materials sent to rebuild the infrastructure from coming back into the hands of Hamas or any successor.
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Chile and Colombia recalled their ambassadors to Israel as they criticized the Israeli military offensive against Hamas militants. This follows Bolivia’s move yesterday. Bolivia, Chile and Colombia all have leftist governments.
Bahrain has reportedly expelled the Israeli Ambassador while also halting its economic participation with the country.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Rate of Israeli ground activity appears slow, but is actually due to the thoroughness of effort to identify and clear tunnels and Hamas resistance and military features. The big squeeze on the stronghold of Hamas - Gaza City - is about to kick off in earnest over the coming days.
The vulnerability of tunnels noted above under “general” above is being exploited by the IDF. An Israeli officer reported said - Gaza terrorists will be dying in tunnels as IDF collapses them; Hamas made a mistake by hiding in underground zone with no escape routes; hundreds of shafts & tunnels destroyed by engineering corps & Air Force so far. Hamas et al misjudged Israel’s response and its tunnel ‘warfare’ plan in not up to snuff in the current operation. It will still be a difficult fight for Israel, but one where Hamas has handicapped themselves.
Eyes continue to be on Hezbollah and whether they are going to live up to their bluster and threats. Same with Iran, as both are expected to announce their next actions this coming Friday if Israel doesn’t stop its ground offensive. As the region is about 12 hours or so ahead of us, we may know the contents later this evening.
Continued pleas from many sectors for a humanitarian “cease fire” are being categorically rejected by Israel. Historically, Israel has yielded to these demands, but Hamas’ terror attack on Oct 7 shattered any similar response this time. The Israeli govt is well aware that Hamas will use any ceasefire to regroup, in an effort to stop the momentum and initiative Israel current has.
Iran –
Iran continues to threaten direct action against both Israel and the US.
Iraq -
More threats from militia factions saying Islamic Resistance in Iraq decided to liberate Iraq from all foreign military presence and there will be no standing down. Sadr has been calling for the U.S embassy to close too.
OBSERVATION -Though belonging to the same sect of islam as Iran does, Sadr has been more nationalistic in his stances. In this instance he is aligning himself with Iran’s goals.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Pakistan is in the process of forcing 1.7 million Afghanis out of the country. This in response to the numerous terror attacks perpetuated by Afghani terror groups based out of Afghanistan.
Surprisingly - global arabs and related are silent on this action.