Globalism / Great Reset –
Pascal Najadi, the son of World Economic Forum co-founder Hussain Najadi, called for the arrests of those responsible for the forced COVID-19 “vaccinations” of 5.7 billion people around the world, saying the injections are a bioweapon leading to “democide.”
“Democide” is a term coined a few decades ago that refers to government mass murder and extermination of civilian populations via either direct action or indifference.
“Everything evil in the world related to democide, unfortunately, comes from Geneva,” Najadi said as he listed the global organizations headquartered in Geneva that played major roles in mandating the COVID jab, which has proved deadly to an estimated 50 million souls around the globe and medically debilitating to tens of millions more.
OBSERVATION - This has been out there for a few days now. Many have called for the arrest of those associated with the wuhan plandemic. Here a definite former insider speaks out.
Economy –
ADP reported yesterday that the US economy added 113,000 jobs in October.
Analysts’ expectations were for a rise to +150k job additions in October, but for the 3rd straight month, ADP disappointed with a +113k print (+150k exp).
OBSERVATION - This speaks against the validity of a 4.3% GDP for the same period.
***
The US Federal Reserve has said it would hold benchmark interest rates steady at its current 22-year high, but left the door open to further hikes if the inflation rate accelerates. “The fact is the committee is not thinking about rate cuts right now at all,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told a press conference.
The decision to hold rates high was widely expected, given the Fed’s stated goal of slowing inflation to a long-term target of 2%.
OBSERVATION - The continued high rates are eating at the economic foundations of the country and in many ways doing more to damage it than inflation. No relief is sight until late 2024 at the earliest.
***
Charles Schwab has laid off 5% to 6% of its total headcount in a bid to cut rising costs, a company spokesperson said Wednesday.
The reduction amounts to between 1,795 and 2,154 people out of its 35,900-strong workforce.
“These were hard but necessary steps to ensure Schwab remains highly competitive,” the spokesperson said in an emailed statement.
OBSERVATION - Corporate layoffs continue at a brisk pace - all pointing to an expected recession.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
More violence against Jews on colleges and university campuses. Latest being pro-Hamas supports assaulting Jews on the Harvard campus. In this case being lead by the editor or the Harvard Law and Review journal.
***
In response to pro-Hamas supporters tearing down the posters showing those kidnapped by Hamas, some have added razor blades to the posters - so as to cut the fingers of those trying to rip them down.
New listing of protests are being organized for this coming weekend. IF Hezbollah jumps into the war with both feet, I expect much more energetic and violent actions targeting jews and jewish associated organizations and business.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
A Jordanian national living in Houston was arrested earlier this month for unlawful possession of a firearm. According to court documents, 20-year-old Sohaib Abuayyash had trained with others of a “radical mindset” to “possibly commit an attack”. FBI Director Christopher Wray said a Houston man had been studying how to build bombs and posted to social media his support for killing Jewish people. Rumors suggest Wray was referring to Abuayyash.
***
Republicans are raising the alarm over a possible terror threat to the country after Border Patrol agents caught illegal border crossers carrying explosives. Republican senators have sounded the alarm on the Biden administration’s border policies after Border Patrol agents caught illegal border crossers who were carrying explosive devices that Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said were “tailor-made for terrorism.”
Several days ago, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents seized illegal immigrants carrying with them improvised explosive devices that Mr. Barrasso said were the “size of cannonballs” and were “tailor-made for terrorism.”
OBSERVATION - There are plenty of other sources here in the US for IED’s, just look back at the pressure cooker bombs used at the Boston Marathon years ago. Never the less, this is highly concerning, pointing to the desire of these illegals to even consider bringing these weapons across the border.
The report does not say from what region / country these terrorists came from. Besides the threat of islamic terror, they could have also been supporting the expanding mexican drug cartel operations in the US.
***
Red shopping carts full of green bags and a big red X are being spotted tied up on the streets all over NYC. This is not being reported on, but it does raise questions during this period of heightened threat from terrorism. Police are reportedly investigation but they have little to go on. The green bags are sealed in larger, clear bags, in an orderly fashion and reportedly are empty.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
According to a Pentagon press release, the military working toward a modern variant of the B61 nuclear gravity bomb, called the B61-13, but the initiative is awaiting congressional authorization and appropriation. “Today’s announcement is reflective of a changing security environment and growing threats from potential adversaries,”
OBSERVATION - Our inventory of nuclear weapons is sorely out of date and a new generation is needed to counter emerging threats.
***
An unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile failed early Wednesday morning due to an anomaly during a test launch.
According to the Air Force Global Strike Command, the unarmed Minuteman III missile was “safely terminated” by Space Launch Delta 30, during its test launch at approximately 12:01 a.m.
OBSERVATION - These are routine tests of the Minuteman rockets to ensure readiness. Haven’t tracked their failure rate over the years, but they are old and rapidly going out of date. US is developing a replacement rocket, but deployment is still many years down the road.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
A great deal of activity concerning Fauci and transferring wuhan virus to a research lab here in MONTANA! This occurred a year prior to the breakout of the disease. There were numerous concerns raised about the lab many years ago when it was set up. Now appears those concerns were justified.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Amid an unprecedented wave of anti-Semitism all over America, the Biden White House decided that now was the time to announce the “first ever national strategy to counter Islamophobia”
- 60% of hate crimes last year targeted Jews.
- Just 9% targeted Muslims.
OBSERVATION - It is being reported that this effort has been in the works for months, but its timing couldn’t be worse. This is one of the most anti-semitic administrations in years and as evidenced by biden throwing literally billions at Iran and Hamas. biden is also facing an internal schism over his quick and aggressive (for him anyway) support of Israel against Hamas.
***
On Wednesday night, the House took up a series of votes to censure Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI). The resolution to censure Tlaib was killed when the motion was tabled, with 23 Republicans joining the democrats and another 13 not voting at all.
OBSERVATION - Haven’t the time to check and see if these are the same republicans who voted against Jordan to become speaker. If so, they need doubly primaries out.
***
The Department of Commerce (DOC) is apparently coercing its employees to espouse Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) ideology and incorporate it into their work.
A memorandum was released by the DOC on October 16 detailing ways in which DEI is a necessary facet of work for DOC employees and how to incorporate it into their daily work routine.
“[T]hese duties are of such importance that acceptable performance in these activities are required for acceptable performance in the position,” the memorandum says of activities related to DEI, suggesting that failure to accept and promote DEI ideology will hurt an employee’s performance review.
The memorandum lays out eight ways in which employees of the DOC might be expected to actively promote and engage in DEI while on the job. These include taking the opportunity to “communicate the importance of DEIA efforts and provide tools and resources that demonstrate support for these initiatives” and to “implement policies, programs, and a work environment that promote diversity and inclusion.”
https://mrctv.org/blog/evan-poellinger/department-commerce-forces-employees-swear-fealty-dei-agenda
OBSERVATION - Cross reference to CW2. Working for the govt, you have to be prepared to deal with all kinds of crap like this. It is how it perpetuates the agenda that is rejected by the population at large. It only serves to widen the gaps in the country - not heal them.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
Critical infrastructure operators in the U.S. are stepping up security for “potential onslaught” of Iranian cyberattacks — Politico
OBSERVATION - Iranian hackers have already been poking around US cyber realm for many years. It is one area that Iran can hit as likely a part of a broader attack on the US.
Illegal Immigration –
The marvelous sanctuary cities of Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles and New York have urgently requested to meet with biden about getting federal support or resources in managing these migrants. They are begging for $5 BILLION to deal with the problem they welcomed with open arms. biden currently is looking at shelling out $1.4 billion.
China –
Taiwan said Wednesday that China sent 43 military aircraft and seven ships near the self-ruled island, the latest sign that Beijing plans no let-up in its campaign of harassment, threats and intimidation.
IN RELATED - The U.S. destroyer USS Rafael Peralta and a Royal Canadian Navy frigate HMCS Ottawa transited the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, the U.S. 7th Fleet said in a statement, making their third joint transit in the region since June.
OBSERVATION - This is less reported here due to other events, but Chinese incursions have been maintained at a relatively high level ever since pelosi visited the island. These incursions cut both ways. It keeps Taiwan’s military stressed, degrading their readiness. OTOH, it is tipping China’s hand as to possible tactics and objectives it will use to regain control of the island.
***
China and the United States have agreed to hold nuclear arms control talks next week, the first since the Obama administration
These discussions aim to prevent a three-way arms race but don’t mark the start of formal negotiations for limiting nuclear weapons
A meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi is planned for November. Recent diplomatic efforts have been made to improve U.S.-China relations
OBSERVATION - China knows the US is in a position of weakness and confusion on foreign policy. They will lead the US negotiators down a merry path, eventually getting everything they want, and the US captivating to everything.
North/South Korea –
South Korean intelligence says that North Korea has shipped 1 million rounds of artillery shells to Russia. This is estimated to equate to about 2 months of artillery consumption by the Russians.
Japan –
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is heading to the Philippines for a pre-ASEAN summit meeting with Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The two leaders are expected to discuss regional security issues, reaffirm their Strategic Partnership, and discuss economic and cultural exchanges.
OBSERVATION - Japan probably recognizes that the US in its present form, is unreliable and that it must forge its own regional agreements and pacts to counter the ongoing Chinese aggressive territorial push in the region.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
*****
Russian Foreign Ministry: Israel’s call for its citizens to leave the North Caucasus region is “anti-Russian”. This call is in response to the large moslem rampage looking to lynch any jews it could find and held an Israeli airliner hostage for a while.
***
Israel does not have the right to defend itself, Russia’s representative to the United Nations said on Wednesday.
The United States and its allies are hypocritical for talking “about Israel’s alleged right for self-defense, which, as an occupying state, it does not have, as was confirmed by the [U.N.’s] International Court [of Justice] consultative ruling in 2004,” Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya told a U.N. General Assembly special session on the Israel-Hamas war.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Its official now, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a bill to revoke Russia’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), citing the need to establish parity with the US.
NOTE - Russia has given no evidence of planning to conduct new nuclear tests, but leaving the treaty does leave this door open to them.
Logistics –
South Korean intelligence says that North Korea has shipped 1 million rounds of artillery shells to Russia
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian artillery along the eastern and southern fronts appear to have stepped up their shelling to the highest level I’ve seen in awhile. Other action on the ground is still relatively static.
Avdiivka Front -
Reports that Ukraine forces are exploiting the poorly defended flank of the Russian forces salient on the northern side of Avdiivka, to pinch it off.
OUTLOOK - Continued status quo along all fronts. Most battles will be to secure better tactical terrain before the rains come in force. Looking at rumors that Russia is attempting to put together another offensive attempt in the eastern fronts.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israeli forces have effectively cut N Gaza from S Gaza.
- Increasing calls by Hamas for the ‘resistance’ forces to up their attacks on Israel and the US
- Speculation continues over what the leader of Hezbollah will say tomorrow.
GENERAL ——————————-
The Israeli military said it had deployed missile boats in the Red Sea on Wednesday as reinforcements, a day after the Iran-aligned Houthi movement said it had launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. The Houthi’s claim to have fired dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles and drones at Israel. Those efforts have done little to no damage on Israel, but have hit Egyptian and Jordanian territories.
Israeli videos show an Arrow ABM system taking a Houthi BM out, while another shows the shoot down of a Houthi cruise missile by an Israeli F35i.
***
News video by a Russian correspondent - date uncertain - of some of the features of the tunnels in Gaza was released. These are complex structures buried as much as nearly 200 feet below the surface, with extensive power and other features giving the forces several months supply with which to stay hidden and protected underground. Just how secure these bunkers are under the present conditions is not certain as they were designed based upon previous Israeli actions limited to aerial bombardment, and not Israeli boots on the ground. Under these conditions they are vulnerable to many measures.
***
Ghazi Hamad, a member of Hamas’ political bureau and a spokesman for the Iran-backed terror organization, told Lebanon’s LBC TV in an Arabic language interview on Oct. 24 that Israel “must be finished.” “We must teach Israel a lesson, and we will do this again and again,” Hamad said. “[The Oct. 7 massacre] is just the first time and there will be a second, a third, a fourth”
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli armored units have pushed to the coast of Gaza, effectively cutting the territory in half. Forces in the north continued to press Hamas south. Systematic location and destruction of Hamas underground facilities continues. Fierce fighting with Hamas elements has locally broken out as they are flushed to the surface.
Along with the ground action, the IAF continued to hit targets, principally in N Gaza.
Hamas et al, managed to get fewer and fewer rockets into the air towards Tel Aviv and central Israel.
***
Hamas sent a group of around 100 women and children to act as human shields during a battle with Israeli forces on Tuesday at the terror group’s Central Jabaliya Battalion compound.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah and Israel continue to trade fire across the border.
The commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, Esmail Quaani, visited Lebanon to coordinate with Hezbollah concerning the conflict with Israel on Wednesday, the Lebanese al-Jadeed news reported on Wednesday.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Relatively quiet since IAF airstrikes hit Hezbollah and Syrian forces positions recently.
Iranian backed militias continue to launch what I consider to be harassment attacks, firing one or two drones/rockets at positions. The goal is to wear down US forces by keeping them in bomb shelters and unable to accomplish other tasks. US counter air strikes have put some fear in these groups, but have been insufficient as a deterrence.
WEST BANK——————————-
The Israeli army continues a campaign of arrests and raids in the West Bank and Jerusalem.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egyptian Foreign Ministry: Preparations to facilitate the evacuation of 7,000 people who hold foreign nationalities from the Gaza Strip.
NOTE- At last scan Americans are NOT on that list as Hamas has denied them exit yesterday. Initial reports indicate that this has been corrected. The Gaza border authority released a list of foreign nationals on Thursday, which included 400 Americans, who are permitted to leave Gaza using the Rafah border crossing.
***
The US, Egypt, and Israel are talking about what kind of security forces to place in Gaza once the war is over to prevent the resurgence of elements like Hamas and to protect money/materials sent to rebuild the infrastructure from coming back into the hands of Hamas or any successor.
***
Chile and Colombia recalled their ambassadors to Israel as they criticized the Israeli military offensive against Hamas militants. This follows Bolivia’s move yesterday. Bolivia, Chile and Colombia all have leftist governments.
Bahrain has reportedly expelled the Israeli Ambassador while also halting its economic participation with the country.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Rate of Israeli ground activity appears slow, but is actually due to the thoroughness of effort to identify and clear tunnels and Hamas resistance and military features. The big squeeze on the stronghold of Hamas - Gaza City - is about to kick off in earnest over the coming days.
The vulnerability of tunnels noted above under “general” above is being exploited by the IDF. An Israeli officer reported said - Gaza terrorists will be dying in tunnels as IDF collapses them; Hamas made a mistake by hiding in underground zone with no escape routes; hundreds of shafts & tunnels destroyed by engineering corps & Air Force so far. Hamas et al misjudged Israel’s response and its tunnel ‘warfare’ plan in not up to snuff in the current operation. It will still be a difficult fight for Israel, but one where Hamas has handicapped themselves.
Eyes continue to be on Hezbollah and whether they are going to live up to their bluster and threats. Same with Iran, as both are expected to announce their next actions this coming Friday if Israel doesn’t stop its ground offensive. As the region is about 12 hours or so ahead of us, we may know the contents later this evening.
Continued pleas from many sectors for a humanitarian “cease fire” are being categorically rejected by Israel. Historically, Israel has yielded to these demands, but Hamas’ terror attack on Oct 7 shattered any similar response this time. The Israeli govt is well aware that Hamas will use any ceasefire to regroup, in an effort to stop the momentum and initiative Israel current has.
Iran –
Iran continues to threaten direct action against both Israel and the US.
Iraq -
More threats from militia factions saying Islamic Resistance in Iraq decided to liberate Iraq from all foreign military presence and there will be no standing down. Sadr has been calling for the U.S embassy to close too.
OBSERVATION -Though belonging to the same sect of islam as Iran does, Sadr has been more nationalistic in his stances. In this instance he is aligning himself with Iran’s goals.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Pakistan is in the process of forcing 1.7 million Afghanis out of the country. This in response to the numerous terror attacks perpetuated by Afghani terror groups based out of Afghanistan.
Surprisingly - global arabs and related are silent on this action.
I really appreciate your news posts, thank you.
“Several days ago, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents seized illegal immigrants carrying with them improvised explosive devices that Mr. Barrasso said were the “size of cannonballs” and were “tailor-made for terrorism.”
I can forgive people for a lot of things but I’ll never forgive democrats for this open border insanity.
BREAKING——— BREAKING————BREAKING
Quick look at Nasrallah’s anticipated speech with some key outtakes under Israel below. It looks like a lot of threats but no apparent action above what Hezbollah has been doing along the border. Will take a second look later today when the full transcript is out.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has received more than 62,900 comments on its proposed Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.
The proposed standards, which were announced in July, require achieving an average of approximately 58 miles per gallon for passenger cars and light duty pickup trucks by 2032, with even higher incremental standards after that. Heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans would need to meet a 10% fuel efficiency gain every year beginning in 2030.
OBSERVATION - The US’ part in taking down the global economy as these are impossible standards to achieve apart from electric vehicles. Even hybrids struggle at the 58 mpg goal. It is doubtful that under the current regime that the comments against will even be given any consideration, leading opponents to go to court to stop this apparent regulatory overreach. Until court ordered stops to the plan, the auto industry will be forced to make changes to meet the standards.
***
At a recent conference, RFK Jr. called for a gov-run “smart grid” that could be easily turned on and off by the U.S. government.
OBSERVATION - Serious weapon that the regime could use on its citizens. This would take years to set up and establish, thankfully, but shows where the globalists and their minion nations are headed.
Economy –
The markets are currently happy with no rate increase by the Fed.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Salon Mag article - “MAGA and Christian nationalism: Bigger threat
to America than Hamas could ever be”
OBSERVATION - The left continues to demonize the right, establishing for their own uses, standards to justify future violence by leftists against the right.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
If Hezbollah declares war on Israel, expect islamic cells to begin disruptions here of a type that isn’t certain yet. I would venture to guess that non-lethal attacks would be the lead off as push back from lethal attacks would be fierce. Keep your head on a swivel and make sure you have prepped for power and other outages.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) and the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group deployed on Oct. 12. The CSG is operating in the East China Sea near Daito Island in the Ryukyus Islands, according to ship spotters.
USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) and other ships with the Reagan Carrier Strike Group made a port call in Manila, Republic of the Philippines from Oct 28 to Nov. 1. The CSG is underway in the Western Pacific.
The Dwight D. Eisenhower CSG is in the Mediterranean and headed to U.S. Central Command.
***
The US Senate has voted to confirm Admiral Lisa Franchetti’s nomination to lead the Navy. Franchetti will be the first woman to serve as the Navy’s top officer as well the first to serve as a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Franchetti is a surface warfare officer who has commanded at all levels, including a naval destroyer and two stints as an aircraft carrier strike group commander.
OBSERVATION - May sound sexist but here it goes. Women in today’s military are promoted on basis of gender and are highly protected in the commands they take. That said, following 0bama’s purge of the officer corps and the current generation of senior officers more aligned with woke doctrine than fight preparation, I am concerned about ALL general officers.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrats recently tucked a secret provision into internal House rules that grants lawmakers access to an optional $34,000 annual subsidy to pay for their housing and meal expenses.
OBSERVATION - How in the world did the republicans let that get into the rules!!!!!!
***
FBI launches investigation into alleged corruption in Mayor Eric Adams’s 2021 election campaign over illegal donations from Turkey. Adams unexpectedly turned around from his trip to DC to petition biden along with other mayors for help dealing with the democrat caused immigration disaster.
OBSERVATION - His key financial campaign officer was the first hit. He could be in deep kimchee.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Push back on the regime for its anti-islamophobia efforts - to appease the radical islamic elements they’ve allowed into the country.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Iranian supported cyberattacks on US infrastructure, banks, etc. are expected should Iran / Hezbollah jump into the Gaza war with both feet.
Illegal Immigration –
Reports of the largest surge of illegals working their way to the border.
North/South Korea –
SK intel reports that in addition to artillery ammo, NK may have supplied tactical ballistic missiles to Russia.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
In the largest attack in a while, Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 of 40 Shahed drones and 1 Kh-59 missile. Not sure the reason behind the poor showing against the Shahed, could be related to rumors that Iran shifting to a jet engine from a propeller engine. Target areas primarily in western Ukraine. Another swarm hit the Kharkiv and Odesa regions.
Action on the fronts continue to be relatively static.
OUTLOOK - Continued status quo along all fronts.
Europe / NATO General –
Reports that many European countries are making plans for mass deportations of unruly migrants as pro-Hamas protests continue. Some are willing to ignore EU declarations that such deportations are ‘illegal’ under EU rules.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
-IDF chief of staff says that Israeli soldiers are now operating inside Gaza City and are surrounding it from several directions.
- Stage being set up in Beirut, Lebanon, for Hezbollah leader Nasrallah’s speech today.
GENERAL ——————————-
BREAKING . . . . BREAKING
Nasrallah’s speech
* “The world will discover that most of those who say they were civilians killed by Hamas were killed by the Israeli army”
* Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah said the Oct 7 attack was led by Hamas, and the decision was 100% Palestinian, and was done in complete secrecy, contrary to what some ‘trouble makers’ are claiming.
This is major, Hezbollah just distanced themselves from the attack! It also contradicts the claim that the attack was strictly Israeli in origin.
*“The fear we are seeing from the from the US and Israel about a major war and a regional war, is a possibility and they really need to consider it”
“There is concern that this front will spiral into a comprehensive war, and the enemy is taking every account of that”
“The possibility of the Lebanese front sliding into a wide battle is a realistic possibility”
“Israel must be concerned about the expansion of war and escalation”
NOTE - Transferring fear of escalation onto Israel / US, deflecting from Hezbollah/Iranian fears
* Arab and Islamic countries and governments must make every effort to stop the aggression against Gaza
Arab and Islamic countries must sever relations with Israel and withdraw ambassadors and stop oil and gas to Israel
Has Arab impotence reached the point of being unable to bring humanitarian aid into Gaza and remove the wounded?
NOTE - Nothing being stated as to how Hezbollah will respond where these arab nations have ‘failed’.
* “We are here to support gaza and we are attacking based on what happen in Gaza”
“All options are on the table and we can go to them at any time”
NOTE - It appears that Hezbollah is going to blink on getting fully into the war.
* “Hezbollah is already waging a real war against Israel”
“Some want us to start a full scale war, and for them the actions on the northern border might be seen as limited, but they are definitely not”.
NOTE - They are claiming the skirmishes on the Lebanese / Israel border are a “real” war. This is an effort to save face.
***
Netanyahu and Blinken meet at the Ministry of Defense headquarters in Tel Aviv. Blinken asks for Israel to protect gazan civilians in the fight.
***
Two days ago, Hezbollah and Iran issued an ultimatum to Israel and to the US: Stop the aggression against Gaza “by Dawn on Friday” or face all-out war starting Friday afternoon. That deadline passed at 5:33 AM local time in Israel today. Yet the fighting goes on.
Israel is 6 hours AHEAD of US eastern time (I made a mistake and said 12 hours yesterday), to the awaited Hezbollah announcement is just hours away.
***
RUMINT. CNN reports that US intelligence currently assesses that Iran and its proxies are seeking to avoid a wider war with Israel
NOTE - I’ve said several times it seems Hezbollah has been reluctant to get fired up about entering the war. There has been some observations on the OSINT side that Hamas jumped the gun with its invasion of Israel to claim glory for a much larger, planned operation involving Hezbollah and Iranian backed militias. These elements and Iran were not ready for this confrontation and Hamas’ premature attack has now alerted Israel and with the 360,000 reserves that have sprung into action (far fewer are fighting Hamas in Gaza) they have lost the element of surprise and numbers. Further note comes out that when Hamas attacked, Israel though it was a ruse and moved forces northward towards this expected attack by Hezbollah - the major reason for such a delayed response in the south.
***
Rumors of that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have been provided with Iranian land-attack cruise missiles which will likely be used against U.S. and/or Israeli targets in the near future.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to systematically destroy Hamas facilities and soldiers in N Gaza as it tightens the noose around Gaza City.
Hamas et al still manages to fire rockets, but at substantially smaller amounts and rates.
IAF continues to target Hamas bases - focusing on identified underground facilities.
The link below is to a figure depicting the disposition of forces in Gaza about 12 hours ago.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F98OITZXgAAbEx_?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
***
The Leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh is reportedly set to arrive in Iran sometime tonight.
Military reporter Ron Ben-Yishai (@ynetalerts) reports -
Hamas realizing Gaza City defense lines collapsing; within hours, IDF may be able to reach any point in city, move closer to leadership hideouts; Hamas chiefs in Gaza under serious threat, prompting Haniyeh to urgently fly to Iran.
NOTE - Ynet is very pro-israel and may have a high degree of propaganda associated with it. However, the core of this story seems valid and similar fleeing of islamic leadership to ‘safe’ areas is a historical fact. Main Hamas leadership reside in Qatar, not Gaza for instance. The collapse of Gaza City defensive lines is also being reported by the IDF.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
People have started gathering in Dahiyeh, in southern Beirut, ahead of Nasrallah’s speech
***
A large number of Beirut schools have taken the decision to close their doors tomorrow for fear of any ‘sudden security development’. Other schools have also decided to keep their schools open until 12 noon
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Hezbollah has announced yesterday that they launched rockets, artillery, drones, and anti-tank guided missiles against at least 19 Israeli military bases along the border with southern Lebanon including Al-Marj, Al-Malikiah, Jal Dwair, Ra’s Al-Naqoura, Zar’it, Duhaira, and Zibdin; the attacks are claimed by the terrorist organization to have caused significant damage and casualties to Israeli forces.
Extensive Israeli strikes on Hezbollah were the response with fighter jets, attack helicopters, tanks & artillery hitting multiple targets in Lebanon; command centers, weapons depots, launch sites & military compounds bombed.
This action is an escalation in previous combat along the border.
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Hezbollah claimed to have used explosive drones for the first time during its attacks on the Lebanese border.
Unconfirmed reports from Syrian sources that are saying that thousands of Iranian-Backed militia members have arrived in Southern Lebanon over the last week and that tens of thousands are still staging inside of Syria near the border with Lebanon and the Golan Heights.
NOTE - I posted the rumors of this force being moved to Syria a couple of weeks ago. As the source is Syrian, I suspect that the numbers are highly inflated. But Israel is very aware of their presence and movements.
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The President of the Christian-Based “Lebanese Forces” political party in Lebanon, Samir Geagea has now called for Hezbollah to withdraw from the south of the country and return its control to the Lebanese Armed Forces; he further stated that if Hezbollah decides to enter the war in Israel they will be committing a major crime against the Lebanese people.
OBSERVATION - Hezbollah is seen as a major reason for the economic chaos that has enveloped Lebanon in recent years. Herbollah has tremendous influence over the govt it has mostly put in place. However, on a more regional / state level there are elements of resistance and if Hezbollah enters the war, they may have to face a level of civil war within Lebanon - creating a two front war against them.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
US has intelligence sources report that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to provide the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah with a Russian-made missile defense system, according to people familiar with the intelligence. The SA-22 missile system reportedly will be delivered and possibly manned by residual Wagner forces.
OBSERVATION - Bad move by Assad, it will clearly place him in the crosshairs if thing get froggy.
WEST BANK——————————-
The Israeli army continues a campaign of arrests and raids in the West Bank and Jerusalem.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Islamic resistance in Iraq group says they going to escalate their campaign (in attacking US bases in Iraq/Syria)
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Jordan informed Yemen that it will not allow its airspace to be used against Israel.
Saudi Arabia also opposed Yemen’s request to use its airspace against Israel.
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The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has just announced that next week they will be beginning a new phase in their operation to fight for the people in Palestine and in confronting the enemies (Israel and the United States); they state that this phase will be much more severe and widespread against the bases of the enemies in the region.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel will continue its attacks in N Gaza to eliminate Hamas from that portion of land before turning south or turning to confront Hezbollah in a more substantial way.
initial read of Nasrallah’s speech is a lot of threats and no substance. They are trying to separate themselves from Hamas to a degree and saying that the very limited attacks are ‘full war’. They decided to cut bait.
Hamas is losing ground fast. Their bunker tactic was designed to hold out against an aerial blitz like those in the past. However, the strength of the ground invasion was not planned for and they are paying the price. Israel is also not playing by the same rules as in the past and is taking the fight to areas Hamas is used to hiding in - schools, mosques, hospitals, etc - using civilians as a shield. This isn’t working for them either.
Hezbollah’s entrance into the war is a contingency Israel has built into its current operations. Revelation of drones by Hezbollah may be a new development, but doesn’t look like a game changer. Same too the build up of militias in Syria/Lebanon. These are light forces with no armor - just leg infantry. This exposes them to Israeli air and artillery superiority - especially if they attempt to invade, then Israeli tanks and armor will up the bet. Israel has the vast bulk of its called up 30,000 reservists in reserve to counter this threat from Lebanon and Syria.
Iran apparently failed to fully grasp the force of IDF ground assault in Gaza; Tehran now understands that situation in Gaza is graver than initially estimated; regime appears to be pressing Hezbollah to intensify attacks on Israel. This substantially increases the chances of a misstep by either Hezbollah or Iran. This could cause the scope of the war to expand substantially.
Iran –
Iran continues to threaten direct action against both Israel and the US.
Iranian President:
‘’America is the main reason why the Israelis commit crimes in Gaza’’
Iraq -
Iranian backed militias threaten to expand attacks on US/coalition bases in Iraq.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Saudi Arabia –
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.