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BREAKING——— BREAKING————BREAKING

Quick look at Nasrallah’s anticipated speech with some key outtakes under Israel below. It looks like a lot of threats but no apparent action above what Hezbollah has been doing along the border. Will take a second look later today when the full transcript is out.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has received more than 62,900 comments on its proposed Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.
The proposed standards, which were announced in July, require achieving an average of approximately 58 miles per gallon for passenger cars and light duty pickup trucks by 2032, with even higher incremental standards after that. Heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans would need to meet a 10% fuel efficiency gain every year beginning in 2030.

OBSERVATION - The US’ part in taking down the global economy as these are impossible standards to achieve apart from electric vehicles. Even hybrids struggle at the 58 mpg goal. It is doubtful that under the current regime that the comments against will even be given any consideration, leading opponents to go to court to stop this apparent regulatory overreach. Until court ordered stops to the plan, the auto industry will be forced to make changes to meet the standards.

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At a recent conference, RFK Jr. called for a gov-run “smart grid” that could be easily turned on and off by the U.S. government.

OBSERVATION - Serious weapon that the regime could use on its citizens. This would take years to set up and establish, thankfully, but shows where the globalists and their minion nations are headed.

Economy –

The markets are currently happy with no rate increase by the Fed.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Salon Mag article - “MAGA and Christian nationalism: Bigger threat
to America than Hamas could ever be”

OBSERVATION - The left continues to demonize the right, establishing for their own uses, standards to justify future violence by leftists against the right.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.

If Hezbollah declares war on Israel, expect islamic cells to begin disruptions here of a type that isn’t certain yet. I would venture to guess that non-lethal attacks would be the lead off as push back from lethal attacks would be fierce. Keep your head on a swivel and make sure you have prepped for power and other outages.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) and the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group deployed on Oct. 12. The CSG is operating in the East China Sea near Daito Island in the Ryukyus Islands, according to ship spotters.

USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) and other ships with the Reagan Carrier Strike Group made a port call in Manila, Republic of the Philippines from Oct 28 to Nov. 1. The CSG is underway in the Western Pacific.

The Dwight D. Eisenhower CSG is in the Mediterranean and headed to U.S. Central Command.

***
The US Senate has voted to confirm Admiral Lisa Franchetti’s nomination to lead the Navy. Franchetti will be the first woman to serve as the Navy’s top officer as well the first to serve as a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Franchetti is a surface warfare officer who has commanded at all levels, including a naval destroyer and two stints as an aircraft carrier strike group commander.

OBSERVATION - May sound sexist but here it goes. Women in today’s military are promoted on basis of gender and are highly protected in the commands they take. That said, following 0bama’s purge of the officer corps and the current generation of senior officers more aligned with woke doctrine than fight preparation, I am concerned about ALL general officers.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Democrats recently tucked a secret provision into internal House rules that grants lawmakers access to an optional $34,000 annual subsidy to pay for their housing and meal expenses.

OBSERVATION - How in the world did the republicans let that get into the rules!!!!!!

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FBI launches investigation into alleged corruption in Mayor Eric Adams’s 2021 election campaign over illegal donations from Turkey. Adams unexpectedly turned around from his trip to DC to petition biden along with other mayors for help dealing with the democrat caused immigration disaster.

OBSERVATION - His key financial campaign officer was the first hit. He could be in deep kimchee.

Biden / Harris Watch –
Push back on the regime for its anti-islamophobia efforts - to appease the radical islamic elements they’ve allowed into the country.

Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Iranian supported cyberattacks on US infrastructure, banks, etc. are expected should Iran / Hezbollah jump into the Gaza war with both feet.

Illegal Immigration –

Reports of the largest surge of illegals working their way to the border.

North/South Korea –

SK intel reports that in addition to artillery ammo, NK may have supplied tactical ballistic missiles to Russia.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.

Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
In the largest attack in a while, Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 of 40 Shahed drones and 1 Kh-59 missile. Not sure the reason behind the poor showing against the Shahed, could be related to rumors that Iran shifting to a jet engine from a propeller engine. Target areas primarily in western Ukraine. Another swarm hit the Kharkiv and Odesa regions.

Action on the fronts continue to be relatively static.

OUTLOOK - Continued status quo along all fronts.

Europe / NATO General –

Reports that many European countries are making plans for mass deportations of unruly migrants as pro-Hamas protests continue. Some are willing to ignore EU declarations that such deportations are ‘illegal’ under EU rules.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

-IDF chief of staff says that Israeli soldiers are now operating inside Gaza City and are surrounding it from several directions.

- Stage being set up in Beirut, Lebanon, for Hezbollah leader Nasrallah’s speech today.

GENERAL ——————————-

BREAKING . . . . BREAKING
Nasrallah’s speech
* “The world will discover that most of those who say they were civilians killed by Hamas were killed by the Israeli army”

* Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah said the Oct 7 attack was led by Hamas, and the decision was 100% Palestinian, and was done in complete secrecy, contrary to what some ‘trouble makers’ are claiming.

This is major, Hezbollah just distanced themselves from the attack! It also contradicts the claim that the attack was strictly Israeli in origin.

*“The fear we are seeing from the from the US and Israel about a major war and a regional war, is a possibility and they really need to consider it”
“There is concern that this front will spiral into a comprehensive war, and the enemy is taking every account of that”
“The possibility of the Lebanese front sliding into a wide battle is a realistic possibility”
“Israel must be concerned about the expansion of war and escalation”
NOTE - Transferring fear of escalation onto Israel / US, deflecting from Hezbollah/Iranian fears

* Arab and Islamic countries and governments must make every effort to stop the aggression against Gaza
Arab and Islamic countries must sever relations with Israel and withdraw ambassadors and stop oil and gas to Israel
Has Arab impotence reached the point of being unable to bring humanitarian aid into Gaza and remove the wounded?
NOTE - Nothing being stated as to how Hezbollah will respond where these arab nations have ‘failed’.

* “We are here to support gaza and we are attacking based on what happen in Gaza”
“All options are on the table and we can go to them at any time”
NOTE - It appears that Hezbollah is going to blink on getting fully into the war.

* “Hezbollah is already waging a real war against Israel”
“Some want us to start a full scale war, and for them the actions on the northern border might be seen as limited, but they are definitely not”.
NOTE - They are claiming the skirmishes on the Lebanese / Israel border are a “real” war. This is an effort to save face.

***
Netanyahu and Blinken meet at the Ministry of Defense headquarters in Tel Aviv. Blinken asks for Israel to protect gazan civilians in the fight.

***
Two days ago, Hezbollah and Iran issued an ultimatum to Israel and to the US: Stop the aggression against Gaza “by Dawn on Friday” or face all-out war starting Friday afternoon. That deadline passed at 5:33 AM local time in Israel today. Yet the fighting goes on.
Israel is 6 hours AHEAD of US eastern time (I made a mistake and said 12 hours yesterday), to the awaited Hezbollah announcement is just hours away.

***
RUMINT. CNN reports that US intelligence currently assesses that Iran and its proxies are seeking to avoid a wider war with Israel
NOTE - I’ve said several times it seems Hezbollah has been reluctant to get fired up about entering the war. There has been some observations on the OSINT side that Hamas jumped the gun with its invasion of Israel to claim glory for a much larger, planned operation involving Hezbollah and Iranian backed militias. These elements and Iran were not ready for this confrontation and Hamas’ premature attack has now alerted Israel and with the 360,000 reserves that have sprung into action (far fewer are fighting Hamas in Gaza) they have lost the element of surprise and numbers. Further note comes out that when Hamas attacked, Israel though it was a ruse and moved forces northward towards this expected attack by Hezbollah - the major reason for such a delayed response in the south.

***
Rumors of that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have been provided with Iranian land-attack cruise missiles which will likely be used against U.S. and/or Israeli targets in the near future.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

IDF continues to systematically destroy Hamas facilities and soldiers in N Gaza as it tightens the noose around Gaza City.

Hamas et al still manages to fire rockets, but at substantially smaller amounts and rates.

IAF continues to target Hamas bases - focusing on identified underground facilities.

The link below is to a figure depicting the disposition of forces in Gaza about 12 hours ago.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F98OITZXgAAbEx_?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

***
The Leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh is reportedly set to arrive in Iran sometime tonight.

Military reporter Ron Ben-Yishai (@ynetalerts) reports -
Hamas realizing Gaza City defense lines collapsing; within hours, IDF may be able to reach any point in city, move closer to leadership hideouts; Hamas chiefs in Gaza under serious threat, prompting Haniyeh to urgently fly to Iran.
NOTE - Ynet is very pro-israel and may have a high degree of propaganda associated with it. However, the core of this story seems valid and similar fleeing of islamic leadership to ‘safe’ areas is a historical fact. Main Hamas leadership reside in Qatar, not Gaza for instance. The collapse of Gaza City defensive lines is also being reported by the IDF.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

People have started gathering in Dahiyeh, in southern Beirut, ahead of Nasrallah’s speech

***
A large number of Beirut schools have taken the decision to close their doors tomorrow for fear of any ‘sudden security development’. Other schools have also decided to keep their schools open until 12 noon

***
Hezbollah has announced yesterday that they launched rockets, artillery, drones, and anti-tank guided missiles against at least 19 Israeli military bases along the border with southern Lebanon including Al-Marj, Al-Malikiah, Jal Dwair, Ra’s Al-Naqoura, Zar’it, Duhaira, and Zibdin; the attacks are claimed by the terrorist organization to have caused significant damage and casualties to Israeli forces.

Extensive Israeli strikes on Hezbollah were the response with fighter jets, attack helicopters, tanks & artillery hitting multiple targets in Lebanon; command centers, weapons depots, launch sites & military compounds bombed.

This action is an escalation in previous combat along the border.

***
Hezbollah claimed to have used explosive drones for the first time during its attacks on the Lebanese border.

Unconfirmed reports from Syrian sources that are saying that thousands of Iranian-Backed militia members have arrived in Southern Lebanon over the last week and that tens of thousands are still staging inside of Syria near the border with Lebanon and the Golan Heights.
NOTE - I posted the rumors of this force being moved to Syria a couple of weeks ago. As the source is Syrian, I suspect that the numbers are highly inflated. But Israel is very aware of their presence and movements.

***
The President of the Christian-Based “Lebanese Forces” political party in Lebanon, Samir Geagea has now called for Hezbollah to withdraw from the south of the country and return its control to the Lebanese Armed Forces; he further stated that if Hezbollah decides to enter the war in Israel they will be committing a major crime against the Lebanese people.

OBSERVATION - Hezbollah is seen as a major reason for the economic chaos that has enveloped Lebanon in recent years. Herbollah has tremendous influence over the govt it has mostly put in place. However, on a more regional / state level there are elements of resistance and if Hezbollah enters the war, they may have to face a level of civil war within Lebanon - creating a two front war against them.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

US has intelligence sources report that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to provide the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah with a Russian-made missile defense system, according to people familiar with the intelligence. The SA-22 missile system reportedly will be delivered and possibly manned by residual Wagner forces.

OBSERVATION - Bad move by Assad, it will clearly place him in the crosshairs if thing get froggy.

WEST BANK——————————-

The Israeli army continues a campaign of arrests and raids in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Islamic resistance in Iraq group says they going to escalate their campaign (in attacking US bases in Iraq/Syria)

***
Jordan informed Yemen that it will not allow its airspace to be used against Israel.
Saudi Arabia also opposed Yemen’s request to use its airspace against Israel.

***
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has just announced that next week they will be beginning a new phase in their operation to fight for the people in Palestine and in confronting the enemies (Israel and the United States); they state that this phase will be much more severe and widespread against the bases of the enemies in the region.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel will continue its attacks in N Gaza to eliminate Hamas from that portion of land before turning south or turning to confront Hezbollah in a more substantial way.

initial read of Nasrallah’s speech is a lot of threats and no substance. They are trying to separate themselves from Hamas to a degree and saying that the very limited attacks are ‘full war’. They decided to cut bait.

Hamas is losing ground fast. Their bunker tactic was designed to hold out against an aerial blitz like those in the past. However, the strength of the ground invasion was not planned for and they are paying the price. Israel is also not playing by the same rules as in the past and is taking the fight to areas Hamas is used to hiding in - schools, mosques, hospitals, etc - using civilians as a shield. This isn’t working for them either.

Hezbollah’s entrance into the war is a contingency Israel has built into its current operations. Revelation of drones by Hezbollah may be a new development, but doesn’t look like a game changer. Same too the build up of militias in Syria/Lebanon. These are light forces with no armor - just leg infantry. This exposes them to Israeli air and artillery superiority - especially if they attempt to invade, then Israeli tanks and armor will up the bet. Israel has the vast bulk of its called up 30,000 reservists in reserve to counter this threat from Lebanon and Syria.

Iran apparently failed to fully grasp the force of IDF ground assault in Gaza; Tehran now understands that situation in Gaza is graver than initially estimated; regime appears to be pressing Hezbollah to intensify attacks on Israel. This substantially increases the chances of a misstep by either Hezbollah or Iran. This could cause the scope of the war to expand substantially.

Iran –

Iran continues to threaten direct action against both Israel and the US.

Iranian President:
‘’America is the main reason why the Israelis commit crimes in Gaza’’

Iraq -

Iranian backed militias threaten to expand attacks on US/coalition bases in Iraq.

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Saudi Arabia –

See Israel above.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The World Health Organization (WHO) has released the latest draft of its controversial International Health Regulations, with the purported aim to eventually establish a global accord on how to handle future pandemics. Expert observers are continuing to express concern with the regulations, saying that they are covertly designed to take away sovereignty from countries and push contentious issues such as abortion.

Jim Roguski, a member of the Law & Activism Committee at the World Council for Health, has been closely monitoring the WHO’s activities in the wake of the “serious failures” that the organization made since the COVID pandemic broke out in 2020. On Tuesday, he joined “Washington Watch with Tony Perkins” to provide an update on where the accord currently stands.

“The fact that it’s not referred to as a treaty is actually very important,” he explained. “What they are setting up is an ongoing series of what they call ‘the Conference of the Parties’ that would meet pretty much forever. And the idea is they’re trying to hash out an agreement just to have an agreement so that they can pat themselves on the back and say, ‘Look what great work we did.’”

https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=6479

OBSERVATION - The globalist powers that be are pushing for a global governance via several vectors. One vector is the WHO trying to take advantage of the vestiges of the fear and chaos that wuhan caused. A second vector is economics - creating massive govt debts, undercutting the foundations of nations economies, and setting up digital currencies. The third vector is similar to the second - controlling food and other commodities via threat of ‘climate change’.

Economy –

Mining analysts are indicating that there will be a surplus of copper production in 2024. This in due to contractions in the western markets and sluggish demand from China Old school metal, copper is increasingly important in the so called ‘green revolution’ and that there are many other critical ores that are found at these copper mines as well. This surplus will likely cool the hot market and lower prices somewhat.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

This thread is good brain food for what to do if caught in one of these traffic terror stops that the current crop of leftist - proHamas groups are resurrecting.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/4194396/posts

OBSERVATION - For those who live in Antifa et al strongholds of dark blue urban areas, keep up to date on local activity. If there are major protests scheduled for your areas/cities, stay the heck away, don’t tempt fate.

***
Cross ref the following under potential terrorism
Far-left protesters stormed the Port of Oakland in CA and chained themselves to a US military ship they believed was delivering weapons to Israel. This is an unconfirmed rumor which union officials claim is false. The ship later left port and some protestors were arrested.

OBSERVATION - Insider information - hinted at by the ‘union’ official - is a greater threat towards all military related shipping.

***
Jewish-Americans across the country are arming themselves for protection amid the FBI warning about rising threats of extremists in the U.S., with gun shops from California to Texas to Florida reporting an increase in sales.

OBSERVATION - Violence being directed towards Jews in the US is beginning to take off like a rocket. Current epicenter continues to be colleges and universities, but other jewish facilities and businesses are now being targeted. First with graffiti - to identify the targets for attacks associated with protests to come.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.

The Oconee County Sheriff’s Office conducted an investigation following a concerning incident at the Oconee Nuclear Station in South Carolina on Thursday night.

At approximately 8:05 p.m. on Thursday, deputies from the Oconee County Sheriff’s Office responded immediately to an emergency call from the Oconee Nuclear Station. An unknown individual had reportedly driven a car through the exit side of the facility’s gate, facing Highway 183, FOX Carolina reported.
According to on-site accounts, following the unauthorized entry, the facility’s security systems activated pop-up barricades designed to immobilize intruding vehicles. The rogue driver, however, managed to reverse the vehicle upon encountering these barricades and proceeded down an adjacent dirt road. It was here that Duke Energy security personnel made an effort to block the intruding car.

Undeterred, the driver escalated the situation by ramming through a fence and attempting to strike the security personnel on-site. Making a hasty exit from the plant premises, the driver, in his bid to escape, tried to ram a security member’s truck parked near the exit.

The car then continued its reckless rampage, speeding back onto Highway 183 and eventually diverting to a property on Jones Mill Road. It was at this location that gunshots were reported, though the source remains unconfirmed by the deputies.

The Oconee County Sheriff’s Office, led by Master Deputy Jimmy Watt, is currently on a manhunt for the suspect and the vehicle involved, WYFF News 4 reported.

Approximately an hour prior to this incident, the same vehicle and its driver had made an appearance on the premises of the Oconee Nuclear Station. Upon confrontation, the individual was asked to leave, to which he complied before the later intrusion.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/11/security-breach-duke-power-nuclear-plant-man-rams/

OBSERVATION - potential terror probe of security of this facility.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The ships and aircraft of two U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike groups — the Gerald R. Ford and the Dwight D. Eisenhower — conducted joint exercises over the last three days in the Mediterranean Sea, according to US Navy release.

OBSERVATION - With the all fired hurry to get assets in place in the event Iran gets froggy, the Ike and Ford spend three days exercising in the Med. I’ve seen nothing that indicates the Ike’s orders to the Persian Gulf have been changed.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Lots of stuff, just don’t have the time to process it at this juncture

Japan –

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan said on Friday that his country would start formal talks with the Philippines to allow the deployment of Japanese troops to the Southeast Asian country, further strengthening ties between two countries that have embraced each other as bulwarks against China.
“We share serious concerns on the situation in the East China Sea and South China Sea,” Mr. Kishida said, referring to Beijing’s increasingly assertive actions in the region. “The attempt to unilaterally change the status quo by force is unacceptable.”…

The proposed pact, known as a reciprocal access agreement, would give the Japanese military access to bases in the Philippines and make it easier to conduct more joint drills.

OBSERVATION - Needless to say China is not happy about this development. Both Japan and the Philippines are facing aggressive efforts by China to physically take islands under their globally acknowledged control

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.

RUMINT – Growing talk of trying to negotiate some sort of ceasefire lead by western nations. This due to unfulfilled expectations of the Ukraine summer offensive and analysis that Ukraine doesn’t have the capabilities to archive its goals of the liberation of Southern Ukraine any time soon.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Action on the fronts continue to be relatively static.

OUTLOOK - Continued status quo along all fronts. Growing talk of some sort of ceasefire.

Europe / NATO General –

Five European countries, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway & Sweden have agreed to cooperate in deportations of illegal migrants. They will share flights & expertise.
They will also help migrants who have reached the North African coast to be repatriated”.

OBSERVATION - The recent pro-Hamas protests have demonstrated that they have lost control of these millions of migrants and that the situation is fast approaching one of a potential civil war with them.

Pakistan –

Reports of a well coordinated terrorist attack on the Pakistan Airforce Base, Mianwali, Punja. Reports of suicide bombers involved in the attack with casualties heavy. Pakistan security forces are responding and clearing the base. The Tehrik-e-Jihad Pakistan group, Taliban affiliated, are already claiming the attack.

OBSERVATION - Pakistan is in the process of expelling about 1.7 million Afghanis due to increasing terror attacks by Afghanistan related groups like this.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Nasrallah’s speech is a flop

- Hamas attempting to use ambulances for the transport of fighters and war materials exposed

- Hamas trying to blend in with wounded being evacuated out of Gaza

- Reported slaughter by Hamas in S Gaza of gazans trying to flee to the Egyptian border

- IDF continues systematic operations to clear N Gaza of Hamas fighters and destroy underground tunnel network.

GENERAL ——————————-

Nasrallah’s speech - In his first public address since the war, was widely expected to give an indication, or possibly even an explicit proclamation of war against Israel but failed to do so.

Look at yesterday’s post - my initial observations on his comments have held out to later analysis. His speech was in many ways a nothing burger, as it was widely anticipated to be a full up declaration of war against Israel. As it turns out, it was largely a message to Hamas telling them they are on their own.

Nasrallah still maintained some threats against the west, but with no clear indicators of what might trigger events. Clearly Hezbollah’s earlier “Red Line” of the IDF invasion of Gaza didn’t pan out as per the threats, so it is uncertain just how firm these other threats are. As stated by Nasrallah-

“The Lebanese front and the escalation in many directions depends on two things: the progress of events in Gaza and their development, and the second, the activities of Israel in Lebanon,” the Iranian-backed terror chief stated, per Maariv reporting.

Nasrallah’s lack luster speech was not received well by some radical elements in the “resistance” but the separation of Iran’s participation from the actions of Hamas is a clear message that they will not be unleashed to do much more than what they have the past couple of weeks.

***
Israel has stopped warning Russia about its attacks on Syrian territory, although it always did so before, Bloomberg writes. This indicates a significant deterioration in Russian-Israeli relations.

After Putin sent troops to Syria in 2015 to prevent President Bashar al-Assad from being overthrown in the ensuing civil war, Israel and Russia began coordinating their actions. That’s how they tried to avoid their forces clashing or shelling by mistake.

***
Handle these remarks carefully, not fully confirmed. The founder of Hezbollah, Subhi Al-Tufayli, courses Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for not ordering Hezbollah to come to Gaza’s aid by attacking Israel.
“You are an enemy of Allah, a despicable killer of Muslim children,” - he shouts at the camera

Head of Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas:
“Hamas leaders were the first to flee from Gaza to Sinai hiding in ambulances, leaving their people to be slaughtered”
Abbas’ Fatah movement were thrown out from Gaza in 2007 by Hamas.

OBSERVATION - The first quote, combined with Nasrallah’s speech yesterday does indicate a schism with Iran and indicates that tight control Iran has on Hezbollah.
The second statement by Abbas (who has fled to Jordan BTW), is supported by the discovery of Hamas elements trying to sneak out of Gaza with wounded yesterday. Abbas and the PA are mortal enemies of Hamas, so it would be totally likely that he is trying to score points against them.

***
US officials report that Hamas members are sneaking themselves onto the departure list of foreign nationals slated to leave Gaza. As a result they are delaying the process for everyone.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Israel continues to systematically move through N Gaza, identifying tunnels and killing any Hamas forces that sorte out from them. IDF forces south of Gaza City are noted moving upon the coast to apparently meet up with forces coming from the north. IAF continues airstrikes, but at lower levels than in the previous 3 weeks.

IDF is having considerable success locating and destroying Hamas’ tunnel network and have hit intelligence gold in some cases. IDF soldiers following extensive searches of some of these bunkers have located intelligence information that included operational orders belonging to Hamas. This also included operational maps, means of communication, command and control tables and personal details of Hamas commanders and terrorists.

***
The IDF Spokesperson said Friday that an aircraft struck an ambulance in the Gaza Strip, which, according to intelligence was being used by a specific Hamas unit closely positioned to the combat zone. It was further reported that several Hamas terrorists were killed in the attack, and the IDF has information suggesting that the terrorist organization utilized the ambulance for transporting terrorists and weaponry.

****

Hamas snipers have reportedly killed dozens of children and women on the streets, targeting those attempting to travel from north to south Gaza and those displaying white flags as a sign of peace. Similar acts have previously been attributed to Palestinian and Hezbollah terrorists in Syria. They do not want civilians to leave; they want to use them as human shields and kill anyone who attempts to leave. Hamas terrorists in Gaza will, as usual, blame Israel because it is easy and there is media that accepts this propaganda.
Hamas did similar using car bombs to deter Gazans from fleeing south following Israels first warnings to leave along designated routes.

***

The IDF says it carried out a limited raid in the southern Gaza Strip overnight, to map out buildings and to clear the area of explosive devices. It says that during the operation, combat engineering forces and tanks, led by the Gaza Division, encountered a Hamas cell that came out of a tunnel. Troops shelled the operatives, killing them.

***

Not fully confirmed - the head of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, appealed to the Egyptian President with a demand to open the border with the Gaza Strip for refugees. This is the first statement of this kind from the terrorist leader since the beginning of the war. He previously called on all Gazan residents to remain in their apartments and not evacuate.

***

Shifa Hospital in Gaza 20 days ago: “In 24 hours we will run out of fuel for the generators and won’t have any electricity.” Photos published by Hamas favored news outlets show the lights still on bright at the hospital
NOTE - This is clear evidence that these generators also provide power to Hamas military base located beneath the hospital - the reason the power is still on.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah escalated its attacks slightly yesterday, with the most significant development being the used of a Burkan rocket against Mt Dov facilities. This would be the first time that Hezbollah has used this weapon in this war, marking an escalatory step due to its increased payload. The Burkan, also known as “The Volcano”, has a range of 500-2,000 meters and can carry explosive warheads that weigh hundreds of kilograms.

IAF launched counter strikes against Hezbollah positions and facilities as a result of this and other attacks. The size of the explosions indicated Israel is using larger bombs, probably targeting ammo and command facilities.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

The Iranian militias targeted the American base in northeastern Syria (Al-Shaddadi) with three missiles. This is the second attack on the American bases in less than 24 hours.

WEST BANK——————————-

The Israeli army continues a campaign of arrests and raids in the West Bank and Jerusalem. Gun fights reported.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

An Iranian proxy-group in Iraq announces it launched suicide drones toward Israel yesterday. It’s the first air attack against Israel from Iraqi territory since Saddam did it

Continued calls for a ceasefire by some nations - including the US (who is trying to massage the message to call it “pauses”) have been flat-out refused by Israel.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel will continue its attacks in N Gaza to eliminate Hamas from that portion of land before turning south or turning to confront Hezbollah in a more substantial way if necessary.

Hamas is losing ground fast and evidence suggests that they are trying to flee the onslaught. Israeli forces have handily dealt with the small groups of Hamas fighters that poke their heads out of their bunkers to challenge the IDF.

To make matters worse for Hamas - it appears that Iran, Hezbollah, the PA and the ‘resistance’ is poised to toss them under the bus. As I think I initiated in earlier posts, Hamas may have jumped the gun in its attack and it was supposed to be held back until a large, combined attack lead by Hezbollah was initiated. The Oct7 attack blew the cover off that effort - exposing Hezbollah and Iran to potential serious retaliation by Israel. The Israeli response this time was far stronger than they also anticipated - showing that Israel wasn’t going to play by the same rules as previous conflicts and they will go for the jugular and world opinion be damned.

Expect more panicked Hamas fighters and leaders to try to escape through the south rather than die in the dark in their bunkers. I expect fierce fighting though as the IDF penetrates into what’s left of the urban areas of Gaza City and especially around hospitals like Shifa where there is clear evidence that they are hiding their main command bunkers.

At this stage, I don’t anticipate any major escalation by Hezbollah, though there is a remote possibility of Nasrallah’s speech being a diversion, a common tactic by radical islamists. I think Israel will maintain a very strong readiness level against Hezbollah and Iran based militias reportedly massing in Syria. But is see the developing panic of Hamas to suggest that help is not on the way.

Iraq -

Iranian backed militias threaten to expand attacks on US/coalition bases in Iraq.

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Saudi Arabia –

See Israel above.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.