Gaza / Israel update
Israel has launched two major “raids” into n Gaza tonight. Thousands of Israeli soldiers backed by massive artillery and air power. This is as close as one comes to the initiation of a full offensive that you can get without crossing that line. Most likely Israel will maintain their positions and not totally withdraw as the previous two nights.
Economy –
The cost of goods and services rose 0.4 percent for a second consecutive month in September, challenging the view that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are still bringing down inflation.
Over the past year, the index is up 3.4 percent. That is unchanged from the August reading, data from the Commerce Department showed Friday. The Federal Reserve says it wants to bring PCE inflation down to two percent, a rate not seen since President Joe Biden took office in early 2021.
The persistence of inflation at the current level casts doubt on the Fed’s claims that the series of rate hikes from March 2022 through July of 2023 are still pulling down inflation. On Thursday, the Commerce Department said the economy grew at an annual pace of 4.9 percent, much faster than expected. That rate of growth is likely inconsistent with falling inflation or the claim that the stance of monetary policy is significantly restrictive.
The increase in inflation is unlikely to force Fed officials to raise interest rates at their monetary policy meeting next week. Officials have signaled that they are likely to keep rates unchanged at the 5.25 to 5.50 percent range set back in July. If inflation continues at this rate, however, it could put pressure on the Fed to raise its benchmark target at the following meeting in December.
OBSERVATION - Good news, if any is the reluctance to jack the prime rate higher based on this report. Bad news is that this inflation rate is so skewed that it doesn’t really capture the realities consumers are facing.
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(Bloomberg) — Oil surged the most in two weeks after Israel’s military said it was “expanding ground activity” in Gaza this evening, reviving concerns about the conflict spreading more broadly.
The announcement from the Israeli Defense Forces pushed West Texas Intermediate to settle above $85 a barrel after a volatile session that saw prices whipsawed by developments in the Middle East conflict.
OBSERVATION - One of Iran’s potential tools in a fight against the US and the west is the threat of closing off the Strait of Hormuz to oil traffic. Minimal seaborne assets combined with shore based anti-ship missiles would succeed in closing it off for a period of time. This fight will not be as the last one because Iran has increased both the quality and quantity of its weapons systems and tactics, making any operation by the US/allied navies more difficult. Even short term disruptions in today’s shaky global economy could bring serious results.
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The U.S. has stopped issuing export licenses for most civilian firearms and ammunition for 90 days for all non-governmental users, the Commerce Department said on Friday, citing national security and foreign policy interests.
The Commerce Department did not provide further details for the pause, which also includes shotguns and optical sights, but said an urgent review will assess the “risk of firearms being diverted to entities or activities that promote regional instability, violate human rights, or fuel criminal activities.”
The Commerce Department declined to comment beyond the posting on its website.
The halt covers most of the guns and ammunition that could be purchased in a U.S. gun store, said Johanna Reeves, a lawyer who specializes in export controls and firearms with the law firm Reeves & Dola in Washington.
Reeves said she had not seen the Commerce Department take such a sweeping action like this before. “For sure they have individual country policies – but nothing like this,” she said.
OBSERVATION - This news item is difficult to categorize as it currently ONLY effects export of US made guns and ammo. Concerning is the statement “The halt covers most of the guns and ammunition that could be purchased in a U.S. gun store,”. Such halts in overseas sales is constitutional, but could this be a precursor to an effort here to stop sales domestically? Needs to be watched closely.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The latest action in Gaza is certain to enlarge the number and attendance of protests this weekend as well as potential for associated violence. With a definite link to potential terrorism, OSINT observers have noted an increase in the calls for action in the leftist / Antifa community. These calls to action are increasingly containing violence. Several dozen announced protests are on tap across the country.
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Diversion of all ammo produced by Lake to military use has driven shortages and price spikes in 5.56 ammo across the country. This diversion hits 30% of the 5.56 ammo supplies on the market. Instability and uncertainty fallout from the Gaza war has also started increases in gun and ammo sales nationwide as well.
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The man behind the Harvard truck that drives around displaying the names of “antisemites,” had his house raided by a SWAT team.
Hamas supporters really don’t like it when you call them out.
Adam Guillette, the man behind the truck, revealed that cops searched his home at 1:30 am on Friday.
Someone had falsely called the police claiming Guillette was holding a gun to his wife’s head.
OBSERVATION - SWATTING has become a terror tactic used by the left that has cost innocent lives in the past.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Maine mass shooting suspect Robert Card found dead. CNN reports Maine mass shooting suspect Robert Card was found dead with a self inflicted gunshot wound. Card was found dead near a recycling facility that he was recently fired from, according to CNN’s John Miller.
OBSERVATION - No real ‘manifesto’, though there is an unpublished letter to his son. One crazed gunman, not a traditional terrorist.
However, it does speak to the craziness that lone wolf attacks by religiously driven islamic terrorists who see their death as a means to an entry to paradise CAN cause. Imagine this scene playing out dozens of times over across the country. The level of panic would be enormous. And it would be low cost and hard to preempt.
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A new report from the Program on Extremism at George Washington University (GWU) details how Hamas has had an extensive support network operating in the United States for decades, with many “core activists” still engaged in “various forms of support.”
The report, published Oct. 13 and authored by Director of the Program on Extremism Lorenzo Vidino, explains how individuals and networks providing “fundraising, lobbying, education, and propaganda dissemination” for Hamas have been in the U.S. since the 1980s, according to internal Hamas documents and FBI wiretaps that have been used as evidence in federal court cases.
OBSERVATION - Key word here is “support”. Those who study low intensity conflict scenarios will recognize that the ‘teeth’ of an insurgent operation are relatively small, but the ‘tail’ of such organizations is large. The ability to support and possibly more importantly, hide, the fighters is critical to mitigate any counter terror operation the govt may initiate. The expansive moslem communities that have been imported into the US over the past decade provide a vast sea of such support. The depth of that support has been demonstrated over the past few weeks by the large, pro-Hamas rallies. Combined with the strong likelihood of Hama/Hezbollah et al terror teams crossing our open southern border, and you have the mix for a well supported, domestic islamic terror threat.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
A senior Pentagon official: The aircraft carrier Eisenhower will cross the Strait of Hormuz and be stationed in the waters of the Gulf upon its arrival.
OBSERVATION - This is not the smartest tactic at this juncture. Placing the Ike in the Persian Gulf will critically limit its movement and place it within range of a plethora of Iranian assets. It is almost like the DoD WANTS Iran to sink the carrier. And Iran will try - even if the US counterstrike levels the country.
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USS REAGAN CVN76 with cruisers ANTIETAM CG54 and ROBERT SMALLS CG62 are arriving at Manila, Philippines.
OBSERVATION - Some speculate that this is due in part to the aftermath of the 22 October “bumping” incidents between Chinese and Philippines ships and US statement of support issued 27 Oct. US reiterated that it would defend Philippine against China.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Countdown once again to govt shutdown. The new speaker continues to get the spending bills necessary through in short order.
Biden / Harris Watch –
All hell breaks out around the world and biden is off to his Delaware retreat for ANOTHER vacation. Biden has spent 392 days — almost 39% of his presidency — on vacation.
China –
The People’s Liberation Army Navy carrier CNS Shandong (17) on Thursday deployed into the western Pacific for the third time this year. On Thursday, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense issued a brief release along with a photograph, stating that the Shandong carrier formation had passed through the Bashi Channel and entered the western Pacific, and that its military was monitoring the PLAN carrier. The release did not identify which PLAN ships were with Shandong. This is Shandong’s third deployment to the western Pacific. Its initial deployment in April saw it operate 19 days in the Philippine Sea, followed by a five-day deployment the Philippine Sea followed.
OBSERVATION - China has increased the tempo of deployments of its three aircraft carriers. Currently, their systems are fairly limited to regional efforts, but at that are more than capable of helping to enforce any blockade of Taiwan, should China decide to take that step.
North/South Korea –
“World War III is about to begin. Everyone should be ready!” Kim Jong-un said.
He stated that due to the escalation in the Middle East, the “flames of war” may spread to other regions of the world.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
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Russia appears to have paused its air-launched cruise missile strikes against Ukraine. Russia’s Long Range Aviation hasn’t conducted air-launched cruise missile attacks against Ukraine for over a month, one of the longest gaps in such strikes since the full-scale invasion began, the ministry reported on Oct. 27.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Colonel General Afzalov officially became the new commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces instead of Surovikin, the website of the Russian Ministry of Defense reports.
Economic Impact –
The Bank of Russia raised the key rate by 200 bp, to 15%.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relatively slow night for ADA - Ukrainian air defense shot down 3 Iskander missiles over Dnipropetrovsk region overnight. Meanwhile near the Romanian border, explosions were reported in Izmail district - likely in the port area.
Russians continue to push against the Avdiivka, some estimates of over 4000 dead Russians with probably three times that wounded over the past couple weeks.
Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.
OUTLOOK -
The battle for Avdiivka is starting to overshadow Ukraines offensive actions in Tokmok and Bakhmut sectors. Reports indicate that Russia is scraping the front line to supply even more units for this fight. This fight will go on for weeks.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
Israel unleashed a new level of hell on Gaza overnight.
Global anti-Israel protests kicked off.
GENERAL ——————————-
In a briefing for reporters of international media outlets, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says the Hamas terror group’s main base of operations is under Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.
Hagari says that Hamas has several underground complexes under Shifa — the largest hospital in the Gaza Strip — which are used by the terror group’s leaders to direct attacks against Israel.
OBSERVATION - The use of such facilities by Hamas and Hezbollah in the past is very well documented. They commonly place military facilities and rocket launching sites next to schools, hospitals, residential areas, etc - utilizing human shields as a means to deter strikes to take such facilities out. So the revelations of Hamas use of Shifa Hospital should not surprise the informed. By their placement under the hospital, they are committing a massive war crime and strips away any formal protection of the hospital.
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UN called for a cease fire to allow ‘humanitarian’ aid to Gaza. Pro-Hamas protests around the world called for the same.
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Israeli and Egyptian combat aircraft are both reported airborne over the Gulf of Aqaba in the Northern Red Sea. It was also reported that the IAF shot down a probable Houthi drone yesterday as well.
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Hamas official tells the Financial Times the organization ‘did not expect this much of a response from America’ after the 7th of October attack, adding ‘what we are seeing now is the entrance of the US into the battle, and this we didn’t count on’.
NOTE - This may account for Hezbollah hesitancy to immediately jump into the fray. The biden anti-Israeli positions and policies supported the assumption by Hamas. The US response clearly changed the dynamics.
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A Hamas official reportedly offered to release all hostages in exchange for all Hamas terrorists being released from Israeli jails.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Overnight Israel launched a three pronged ‘incursion’ into N Gaza, the link below is a map depicting the locations.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9eujj7XkAAt5fo.jpg
The attacks penetrated into Gaza via two in the north and a third along the Wadi Gaza Nature Reserve & the Wadi. The incursions involved thousands of soldiers and was backed by a level of artillery and air support that some observers say was the largest since the Oct 7th massacre.
The IDF struck anti-tank missile launch sites, command and control centers and Hamas operatives, according to the IDF. The Israeli military said this is an expanded raid, not the anticipated large scale ground operation.
According to the Israel Defense Force, over 150 Underground Targets were Destroyed last night in the Gaza Strip by Israeli Aircraft using High-Impact “Bunker Busting” Munitions, while an IDF Military Officer stated, “We are using Fire that has never been seen before in the Gaza Strip. From the Air, from the Ground or from the Underground
IDF infantry, combat engineering forces and tanks still remain inside the Gaza Strip at this hour.
The Israel Defense Forces on Friday said the Hamas terror group’s main base of operations is under Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, providing visuals and intercepted audio as evidence of the terror organization’s activities.
Inspire of last nights action, Hamas was able to get a few rocket barrages fired that were mostly ineffective.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF says it struck a Hezbollah site in southern Lebanon overnight, in response to rocket fire on Israel yesterday, which landed in Syria.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Nothing significant to report. All eyes on Hezbollah and Iran for their response to last nights enlarged Israeli “raid” into Gaza.
WEST BANK——————————-
A large IDF force continues to operate in the West Bank to arrest/neutralize Hamas and affiliated terror groups.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has warned that fighting between Israel and Hamas, which is on the brink of dragging other countries in the region, could disrupt Middle East oil supplies to international markets.
The crisis would “impact global security, escalate regional conflict, jeopardize energy supplies, exacerbate economic crises and invite further conflicts,” al-Sudani said at a peace summit in Cairo
Analysts have been worrying about the possibility that Arab countries could cut off oil exports to the West in retaliation for the much publicized and anticipated Israeli ground offensive into Gaza, which was reportedly favored by President Joe Biden during his seven-hour visit in Tel-Aviv last week. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian roiled energy markets on Oct. 18 when he called for Muslim countries to enforce an “immediate and complete” oil embargo on Israel. It is important to note that Hamas is backed by Iran, the world’s eighth-largest oil producer. Tehran can greatly disrupt markets even without backing from other major exporters for an embargo.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel definitely kicked things up a couple notches overnight. This action is about as close as one can get to the promised whole blown ground invasion. My assessment from yesterday needs to be adjusted to a full invasion in less than a week, perhaps only days once again. Until then, other aggressive ‘raids’ like last night are in the forecast.
Some have called the action a “rolling start” to the invasion. Israeli units have not pulled back as in previous operations. In spite of Hamas propaganda that essentially claimed 6 ATGMs destroyed 30 Israeli tanks, the fierceness of the Israeli action indicates otherwise.
All eyes are now on Hezbollah and Iran as this ‘expanded’ raid clearly crossed its red line of no Israeli boots in Gaza. Last nights action triggered large protests in many places across the world. Violence so far has been limited, but is anticipated to increase as the operation continues.
I believe I said it before, the current situation is highly fluid and can change very quickly, as we saw from last night.
Iran –
Monitoring for response to last night’s action in Gaza - see above.
Iraq -
Iranian backed militias continue to pose a threat to US forces in the nation.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Overnight the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (a front for Iranian-backed militias) claimed it carried out an attack against the US base of al-Tanf, in southern Syria
