Economy –
The cost of goods and services rose 0.4 percent for a second consecutive month in September, challenging the view that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are still bringing down inflation.
Over the past year, the index is up 3.4 percent. That is unchanged from the August reading, data from the Commerce Department showed Friday. The Federal Reserve says it wants to bring PCE inflation down to two percent, a rate not seen since President Joe Biden took office in early 2021.
The persistence of inflation at the current level casts doubt on the Fed’s claims that the series of rate hikes from March 2022 through July of 2023 are still pulling down inflation. On Thursday, the Commerce Department said the economy grew at an annual pace of 4.9 percent, much faster than expected. That rate of growth is likely inconsistent with falling inflation or the claim that the stance of monetary policy is significantly restrictive.
The increase in inflation is unlikely to force Fed officials to raise interest rates at their monetary policy meeting next week. Officials have signaled that they are likely to keep rates unchanged at the 5.25 to 5.50 percent range set back in July. If inflation continues at this rate, however, it could put pressure on the Fed to raise its benchmark target at the following meeting in December.
OBSERVATION - Good news, if any is the reluctance to jack the prime rate higher based on this report. Bad news is that this inflation rate is so skewed that it doesn’t really capture the realities consumers are facing.
***
(Bloomberg) — Oil surged the most in two weeks after Israel’s military said it was “expanding ground activity” in Gaza this evening, reviving concerns about the conflict spreading more broadly.
The announcement from the Israeli Defense Forces pushed West Texas Intermediate to settle above $85 a barrel after a volatile session that saw prices whipsawed by developments in the Middle East conflict.
OBSERVATION - One of Iran’s potential tools in a fight against the US and the west is the threat of closing off the Strait of Hormuz to oil traffic. Minimal seaborne assets combined with shore based anti-ship missiles would succeed in closing it off for a period of time. This fight will not be as the last one because Iran has increased both the quality and quantity of its weapons systems and tactics, making any operation by the US/allied navies more difficult. Even short term disruptions in today’s shaky global economy could bring serious results.
***
The U.S. has stopped issuing export licenses for most civilian firearms and ammunition for 90 days for all non-governmental users, the Commerce Department said on Friday, citing national security and foreign policy interests.
The Commerce Department did not provide further details for the pause, which also includes shotguns and optical sights, but said an urgent review will assess the “risk of firearms being diverted to entities or activities that promote regional instability, violate human rights, or fuel criminal activities.”
The Commerce Department declined to comment beyond the posting on its website.
The halt covers most of the guns and ammunition that could be purchased in a U.S. gun store, said Johanna Reeves, a lawyer who specializes in export controls and firearms with the law firm Reeves & Dola in Washington.
Reeves said she had not seen the Commerce Department take such a sweeping action like this before. “For sure they have individual country policies – but nothing like this,” she said.
OBSERVATION - This news item is difficult to categorize as it currently ONLY effects export of US made guns and ammo. Concerning is the statement “The halt covers most of the guns and ammunition that could be purchased in a U.S. gun store,”. Such halts in overseas sales is constitutional, but could this be a precursor to an effort here to stop sales domestically? Needs to be watched closely.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The latest action in Gaza is certain to enlarge the number and attendance of protests this weekend as well as potential for associated violence. With a definite link to potential terrorism, OSINT observers have noted an increase in the calls for action in the leftist / Antifa community. These calls to action are increasingly containing violence. Several dozen announced protests are on tap across the country.
***
Diversion of all ammo produced by Lake to military use has driven shortages and price spikes in 5.56 ammo across the country. This diversion hits 30% of the 5.56 ammo supplies on the market. Instability and uncertainty fallout from the Gaza war has also started increases in gun and ammo sales nationwide as well.
***
The man behind the Harvard truck that drives around displaying the names of “antisemites,” had his house raided by a SWAT team.
Hamas supporters really don’t like it when you call them out.
Adam Guillette, the man behind the truck, revealed that cops searched his home at 1:30 am on Friday.
Someone had falsely called the police claiming Guillette was holding a gun to his wife’s head.
OBSERVATION - SWATTING has become a terror tactic used by the left that has cost innocent lives in the past.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Maine mass shooting suspect Robert Card found dead. CNN reports Maine mass shooting suspect Robert Card was found dead with a self inflicted gunshot wound. Card was found dead near a recycling facility that he was recently fired from, according to CNN’s John Miller.
OBSERVATION - No real ‘manifesto’, though there is an unpublished letter to his son. One crazed gunman, not a traditional terrorist.
However, it does speak to the craziness that lone wolf attacks by religiously driven islamic terrorists who see their death as a means to an entry to paradise CAN cause. Imagine this scene playing out dozens of times over across the country. The level of panic would be enormous. And it would be low cost and hard to preempt.
***
A new report from the Program on Extremism at George Washington University (GWU) details how Hamas has had an extensive support network operating in the United States for decades, with many “core activists” still engaged in “various forms of support.”
The report, published Oct. 13 and authored by Director of the Program on Extremism Lorenzo Vidino, explains how individuals and networks providing “fundraising, lobbying, education, and propaganda dissemination” for Hamas have been in the U.S. since the 1980s, according to internal Hamas documents and FBI wiretaps that have been used as evidence in federal court cases.
OBSERVATION - Key word here is “support”. Those who study low intensity conflict scenarios will recognize that the ‘teeth’ of an insurgent operation are relatively small, but the ‘tail’ of such organizations is large. The ability to support and possibly more importantly, hide, the fighters is critical to mitigate any counter terror operation the govt may initiate. The expansive moslem communities that have been imported into the US over the past decade provide a vast sea of such support. The depth of that support has been demonstrated over the past few weeks by the large, pro-Hamas rallies. Combined with the strong likelihood of Hama/Hezbollah et al terror teams crossing our open southern border, and you have the mix for a well supported, domestic islamic terror threat.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
A senior Pentagon official: The aircraft carrier Eisenhower will cross the Strait of Hormuz and be stationed in the waters of the Gulf upon its arrival.
OBSERVATION - This is not the smartest tactic at this juncture. Placing the Ike in the Persian Gulf will critically limit its movement and place it within range of a plethora of Iranian assets. It is almost like the DoD WANTS Iran to sink the carrier. And Iran will try - even if the US counterstrike levels the country.
***
USS REAGAN CVN76 with cruisers ANTIETAM CG54 and ROBERT SMALLS CG62 are arriving at Manila, Philippines.
OBSERVATION - Some speculate that this is due in part to the aftermath of the 22 October “bumping” incidents between Chinese and Philippines ships and US statement of support issued 27 Oct. US reiterated that it would defend Philippine against China.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Countdown once again to govt shutdown. The new speaker continues to get the spending bills necessary through in short order.
Biden / Harris Watch –
All hell breaks out around the world and biden is off to his Delaware retreat for ANOTHER vacation. Biden has spent 392 days — almost 39% of his presidency — on vacation.
China –
The People’s Liberation Army Navy carrier CNS Shandong (17) on Thursday deployed into the western Pacific for the third time this year. On Thursday, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense issued a brief release along with a photograph, stating that the Shandong carrier formation had passed through the Bashi Channel and entered the western Pacific, and that its military was monitoring the PLAN carrier. The release did not identify which PLAN ships were with Shandong. This is Shandong’s third deployment to the western Pacific. Its initial deployment in April saw it operate 19 days in the Philippine Sea, followed by a five-day deployment the Philippine Sea followed.
OBSERVATION - China has increased the tempo of deployments of its three aircraft carriers. Currently, their systems are fairly limited to regional efforts, but at that are more than capable of helping to enforce any blockade of Taiwan, should China decide to take that step.
North/South Korea –
“World War III is about to begin. Everyone should be ready!” Kim Jong-un said.
He stated that due to the escalation in the Middle East, the “flames of war” may spread to other regions of the world.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
*****
Russia appears to have paused its air-launched cruise missile strikes against Ukraine. Russia’s Long Range Aviation hasn’t conducted air-launched cruise missile attacks against Ukraine for over a month, one of the longest gaps in such strikes since the full-scale invasion began, the ministry reported on Oct. 27.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Colonel General Afzalov officially became the new commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces instead of Surovikin, the website of the Russian Ministry of Defense reports.
Economic Impact –
The Bank of Russia raised the key rate by 200 bp, to 15%.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relatively slow night for ADA - Ukrainian air defense shot down 3 Iskander missiles over Dnipropetrovsk region overnight. Meanwhile near the Romanian border, explosions were reported in Izmail district - likely in the port area.
Russians continue to push against the Avdiivka, some estimates of over 4000 dead Russians with probably three times that wounded over the past couple weeks.
Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.
OUTLOOK -
The battle for Avdiivka is starting to overshadow Ukraines offensive actions in Tokmok and Bakhmut sectors. Reports indicate that Russia is scraping the front line to supply even more units for this fight. This fight will go on for weeks.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
Israel unleashed a new level of hell on Gaza overnight.
Global anti-Israel protests kicked off.
GENERAL ——————————-
In a briefing for reporters of international media outlets, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says the Hamas terror group’s main base of operations is under Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.
Hagari says that Hamas has several underground complexes under Shifa — the largest hospital in the Gaza Strip — which are used by the terror group’s leaders to direct attacks against Israel.
OBSERVATION - The use of such facilities by Hamas and Hezbollah in the past is very well documented. They commonly place military facilities and rocket launching sites next to schools, hospitals, residential areas, etc - utilizing human shields as a means to deter strikes to take such facilities out. So the revelations of Hamas use of Shifa Hospital should not surprise the informed. By their placement under the hospital, they are committing a massive war crime and strips away any formal protection of the hospital.
***
UN called for a cease fire to allow ‘humanitarian’ aid to Gaza. Pro-Hamas protests around the world called for the same.
***
Israeli and Egyptian combat aircraft are both reported airborne over the Gulf of Aqaba in the Northern Red Sea. It was also reported that the IAF shot down a probable Houthi drone yesterday as well.
***
Hamas official tells the Financial Times the organization ‘did not expect this much of a response from America’ after the 7th of October attack, adding ‘what we are seeing now is the entrance of the US into the battle, and this we didn’t count on’.
NOTE - This may account for Hezbollah hesitancy to immediately jump into the fray. The biden anti-Israeli positions and policies supported the assumption by Hamas. The US response clearly changed the dynamics.
***
A Hamas official reportedly offered to release all hostages in exchange for all Hamas terrorists being released from Israeli jails.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Overnight Israel launched a three pronged ‘incursion’ into N Gaza, the link below is a map depicting the locations.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9eujj7XkAAt5fo.jpg
The attacks penetrated into Gaza via two in the north and a third along the Wadi Gaza Nature Reserve & the Wadi. The incursions involved thousands of soldiers and was backed by a level of artillery and air support that some observers say was the largest since the Oct 7th massacre.
The IDF struck anti-tank missile launch sites, command and control centers and Hamas operatives, according to the IDF. The Israeli military said this is an expanded raid, not the anticipated large scale ground operation.
According to the Israel Defense Force, over 150 Underground Targets were Destroyed last night in the Gaza Strip by Israeli Aircraft using High-Impact “Bunker Busting” Munitions, while an IDF Military Officer stated, “We are using Fire that has never been seen before in the Gaza Strip. From the Air, from the Ground or from the Underground
IDF infantry, combat engineering forces and tanks still remain inside the Gaza Strip at this hour.
The Israel Defense Forces on Friday said the Hamas terror group’s main base of operations is under Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, providing visuals and intercepted audio as evidence of the terror organization’s activities.
Inspire of last nights action, Hamas was able to get a few rocket barrages fired that were mostly ineffective.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF says it struck a Hezbollah site in southern Lebanon overnight, in response to rocket fire on Israel yesterday, which landed in Syria.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Nothing significant to report. All eyes on Hezbollah and Iran for their response to last nights enlarged Israeli “raid” into Gaza.
WEST BANK——————————-
A large IDF force continues to operate in the West Bank to arrest/neutralize Hamas and affiliated terror groups.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has warned that fighting between Israel and Hamas, which is on the brink of dragging other countries in the region, could disrupt Middle East oil supplies to international markets.
The crisis would “impact global security, escalate regional conflict, jeopardize energy supplies, exacerbate economic crises and invite further conflicts,” al-Sudani said at a peace summit in Cairo
Analysts have been worrying about the possibility that Arab countries could cut off oil exports to the West in retaliation for the much publicized and anticipated Israeli ground offensive into Gaza, which was reportedly favored by President Joe Biden during his seven-hour visit in Tel-Aviv last week. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian roiled energy markets on Oct. 18 when he called for Muslim countries to enforce an “immediate and complete” oil embargo on Israel. It is important to note that Hamas is backed by Iran, the world’s eighth-largest oil producer. Tehran can greatly disrupt markets even without backing from other major exporters for an embargo.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel definitely kicked things up a couple notches overnight. This action is about as close as one can get to the promised whole blown ground invasion. My assessment from yesterday needs to be adjusted to a full invasion in less than a week, perhaps only days once again. Until then, other aggressive ‘raids’ like last night are in the forecast.
Some have called the action a “rolling start” to the invasion. Israeli units have not pulled back as in previous operations. In spite of Hamas propaganda that essentially claimed 6 ATGMs destroyed 30 Israeli tanks, the fierceness of the Israeli action indicates otherwise.
All eyes are now on Hezbollah and Iran as this ‘expanded’ raid clearly crossed its red line of no Israeli boots in Gaza. Last nights action triggered large protests in many places across the world. Violence so far has been limited, but is anticipated to increase as the operation continues.
I believe I said it before, the current situation is highly fluid and can change very quickly, as we saw from last night.
Iran –
Monitoring for response to last night’s action in Gaza - see above.
Iraq -
Iranian backed militias continue to pose a threat to US forces in the nation.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Overnight the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (a front for Iranian-backed militias) claimed it carried out an attack against the US base of al-Tanf, in southern Syria
Sooooo much out there, that I’m having to put the front burner items here. I’m monitoring the other areas but the whole Gaza war and related are swamping the feeders and currently have a very great potential to impact the US in multiple ways. Key are CW2 related protests/violence as well as any US military involvement. Economic factors are also in play. Simply a ton of things have hit the fan this month - with the October surprise being a Gaza war.
Globalism / Great Reset –
WEF-funded Johns Hopkins professor Jules Gill-Peterson has urged governments to remove the stigma around supporting child “sex work” by starting a “mass movement” to turn the tide of “moral panic” over the idea.
OBSERVATION - From Epstine on, those associated with globalists have this overwhelming desire to pervert children. It’s nothing more than an attempt to normalize child abuse in the name of adult sexual desire. It’s disgusting, it’s vile, and it’s hard to even begin to grasp the consequences of such depravity.
This is but one facet of the attack on our children, in that it goes along with the demonic push to transgender mutilate them, confuse their sexual development by gay/lesbian elements, vaccinate with unnecessary wuhan jabs that do far more harm than good, etc.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
As in the 2020 BLM-Antifa riots, pro-Palestine demonstrators are blocking the road in Manhattan and aggressively confronting drivers.
OBSERVATION - I’ve warned about their protests expanding to use this tactic. Be alert in your areas for protests and potential road block assaults.
***
Follow up on the unexpected ban of overseas sales of US made arms, ammo and related. Key items have raised new RED FLAGS to me. Reuters The Commerce Department did not provide further details for the 90 day pause, which also includes shotguns and optical sights, but said an urgent review will assess the “risk of firearms being diverted to entities or activities that promote regional instability, violate human rights, or fuel criminal activities.”
Critical concern, they may try to fashion this ‘risk’ and carry it over to domestic sales claiming individuals via straw purchases or other actions are arming to promote instability or promote criminal activity here in the US. The regime has over the past three years used many back door measures to attack constitutional rights. A ban via the Commerce department may be such an attempt to work around - short of declaring a national ‘emergency’ or martial law.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) CSG has entered the Western Mediterranean via the Strait of Gibraltar.
USS Hershel Woody Williams ESB4 also passed thru the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean suspected of heading to join the USS Ford CSG or follow the Ike into the Arabian Sea region. It is a Lewis B. Puller-class expeditionary mobile base.
***
The massive airlift continues with a 24 hours snapshot of US and allied transport aircraft from CONUS to eastern Med/CENTCOM, including C-17A (49!), C-5M, A400M & C-130 transports with RCH/REACH callsigns.
This is far from a complete list and does not include tankers or other types of aircraft.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
*****
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 5 Shahed drones overnight in western Ukraine.
Russians continue to push against the Avdiivka, some estimates of over 4000 dead Russians with probably three times that wounded over the past couple weeks.
Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.
Avdiivka Front -
Russia is now suffering one of the largest losses of equipment and personnel near Avdiivka in 2023. It is alleged that the Russians have deployed up to 8 brigades in the area of Avdiivka. These units probably suffered some of the worst losses seen in the Russian army in 2023.
Russian Territory –
Ukraine drones hit the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai of Russia
OUTLOOK -
Action has largely stalled out by both sides now that the rains have made their return and turning things into a big mud bog. This reduces most of the action to infantry and artillery as armor/tanks can’t play until the ground freezes over. Russian efforts to take Avdiivka will apparently press on, but at very heavy costs. Russia no longer has the artillery dominance necessary to support the infantry and Ukraine has improved to the point that they have reached a degree of parity. Russian unprotected “meat attacks” are not going their way as before. It is devolving into a very bloody fall.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israeli Army Chief of Staff: The army has moved to the second phase of the battle
- Ground operations in Gaza expanded overnight with intense IAF bombing.
- Turkey threatens to attack Israel.
GENERAL ——————————-
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi in a video statement: “Three weeks have passed since the start of the war. This war has stages, and today we moved into a new phase. Our forces are currently carrying out ground operations in the Gaza Strip... which serve to achieve all the war’s objectives, dismantling Hamas, security at the borders, and uppermost efforts to return all the hostages back home. The objectives of the war require ground entry. There are no achievements without risks, and there is no victory without prices being paid. In order to expose the enemy and destroy it, there is no other way but to enter its territory with great force. This action serves all the objectives of the war.”
***
The U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees says thousands of people broke into its Gaza aid warehouses to take food and other “basic survival items,” which the agency’s director says is “a worrying sign that civil order is starting to break down.”
NOTE - Hamas is the ruling govt entity in Gaza - they are doing nothing for the people.
***
Israeli army and Shin Bet claim that they’ve taken out 55 Hamas leaders since Oct 7th.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The “Second Phase” of Israel’s war against Hamas continues. The Israeli army reports that they are gradually expanding the ground incursion and bringing in more troops. Observers report more gun and tank fire than the initial incursion yesterday.
The Israeli army says fighter jets struck some 450 Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip over the past day, including command centers, observation posts, and anti-tank guided missile launch positions. Observers report that the air strikes overnight were the most severe since the start of the war.
Hamas et al still managed to get a few rocket barrages fired at Israel but had little to no effect.
Israeli Army dispersed more flyers warning of imminent operations in Northern Gaza, urges residents to evacuate.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah continued with harassing fire, using ATGMs and rockets. Israel retaliated with air/artillery strikes of Hezbollah positions and facilities.
***
The Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabia Berri, hosted the Hamas delegation in Beirut, headed by the number 2 in Hamas, Saleh al-Aaruri
***
The U.S. State Department urged on Friday that U.S. nationals in Lebanon leave as soon as possible due to the region’s “unpredictable security situation.” Other countries making the same warning.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Reports of another militia attack with rockets on the U.S assets at the Al-Omar Oilfield base. ‘Iraqi factions targeted an American base in Al-Hasakah in the north of the country with two drones.’
Source: Syrian TV
Syria: The resistance factions in Iraq are also saying that the Shaddadi base to the north was targeted with two drones.
The U.S. forces are targeting Iranian militia positions in the Badia Al-Mayadin desert. This is the second time in less than 72 hours that the U.S. has responded to threats against American bases in eastern Deir Ezzor.
WEST BANK——————————-
Overnight, Israeli army forces demolished the home of Hassan Qatnani, one of the Hamas militants who carried out the deadly shooting attack on the Dee family in April, in the West Bank’s Askar refugee camp. Troops also detained 23 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including four affiliated with Hamas
A large IDF force continues to operate in the West Bank to arrest/neutralize Hamas and affiliated terror groups.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egypt warned Israel against carrying out military operations along the Philadelphi Corridor and rejected Israel’s apology for damage to an Egyptian Army guard post, according to Egyptian sources quoted in Cairo’s Al-Arabi Al-Jadid newspaper on Sunday morning.
The Philadelphi Corridor, also called the Philadelphi Route, is a narrow strip of land, 14 km. in length, situated along the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt in southern Gaza.
***
Massive pro-Hamas protests broke out in Turkey, Britain, France, Germany. In the US major ones in NYC, and LA.
***
SAUDI MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS STATEMENT:
“We condemn and denounce any ground operations carried out by Israel because they threaten the lives of Palestinian civilians and expose them to more dangers and inhumane conditions”
***
Czech Defense Minister Jana Černochová has just called to leave the UN for cheering Hamas terrorists. “Exactly 3 weeks ago, Hamas murdered over 1400 Israelis, more victims for their population than the militant Islamist organization al-Qaeda murdered in the US on 9/11. And only 14 countries, including ours, have spoken out clearly and understandably against this unprecedented terrorist attack perpetrated by Hamas terrorists! I am ashamed of the UN. In my opinion, the Czech Republic has no place in an organization that cheers on terrorists and does not respect the fundamental right to self-defense. Let’s get out.”
***
The president of Iran stated - “Zionist regime’s crimes have crossed the red lines, which may force everyone to take action. Washington asks us to not do anything, but they keep giving widespread support to Israel. The US sent messages to the Axis of Resistance but received a clear response on the battlefield.”
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - I guess one could say the official ground offensive has kicked off, but it looks like Israel is utilizing a piecemeal attack strategy instead of a full front assault into N Gaza. Taking Hamas out sector by sector.
What is troubling are the global aftershocks that have rippled yesterday. A big one is the Turkish threat to attack Israel (SEE Turkey below). The US stores nuclear bombs in Turkey as a deterrent to Russia, a hold over from the cold war. NATO is at risk now. However, I do not see any immediate action by Turkey - but a lot of rhetoric by Erdoğan at this time.
Second aftershock are remarks coming from Iran that Israel has crossed the red line. So far, even with the latest ground operations, Hezbollah has been relatively quiet and not unleashed the threatened massive rocket attacks promised for an invasion of Gaza. The Iranian ‘resistance’ militias attacks on US bases in eastern Syria and Iraq have not been very substantial over the past few days, more like harassment attacks. Iran is in a hard place because its rhetoric has painted it into a corner. Iran and Hezbollah are primed to attack at a moment’s notice but their window of opportunity is rapidly closing as US and European forces move into the region as a deterrent force.
Third are the splits developing in the UN who in their typical manner condemned Israel and totally ignored the thousand plus murdered, several thousand wounded and a couple hundred hostages from many nations - not just Israel - by Hamas. Calls to actually break up/pull out of the UN by countries could signal a collapse of the organization and may further result in removal of funding by offended nations.
As always, this is a highly fluid situation and things can happen fast.
Iran –
Iran’s Army Ground Force ends its two-day military drill. Chief commander of Iranian Army earlier in the day said the drill sent a message to “enemies that Iranian armed forces have full defensive and combat readiness to deal with any threat.”
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Saudi Arabia –
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Iran-backed “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” announces targeting Shaddadi coalition base in Syria with 2 UAVs
Turkey –
Erdoğan: “When I said that Hamas is not a terrorist organization, Israel did not like it very much. That’s why I said it. What were you waiting for?”
“We can come at any night unexpectedly”
In response, hundreds of thousands of Turks start chanting:
“Turkish military to Gaza”
He also threatened to involve his military against Israel.
Erdogan has just expressly called out the West at this rally.
“O West, I’m calling out to you. Do you want to start a Crescent-Crusader clash again?”
OBSERVATION - This is being interpreted by many as a threat of war against Israel and any western supporters. It raised many an eyebrow in the NATO community and some questioning its status as a member.
Turkey and Israel used to have a relatively good relationship, that was until Erdogan decided he would establish a new Caliphate and relations turned rocky. The last couple year things were on the mend. Now there appears to be irreparable harm.
Israel has announced that they are in the process of Withdrawing all diplomatic officials in Turkey in order to allow for the “Reassessment of Turkish-Israeli Relations.” Israel also ordered the expulsion all Turkish diplomats. The breaking off of diplomatic contacts.
