Globalism / Great Reset –
Federal Trade Commission is now in the business of hiring child psychologists in a effort to regulate social media. You heard me right. Apart from being way, way outside its boundaries as far as its mission, this appears to be a new, backdoor effort to regulation of free speech on the interwebs.
Speech regulation - in all its forms, is a key plank of the WEF’s global aspirations to rule the world.
Economy –
Ford and the United Auto Workers (UAW) union have reached a tentative deal, which includes a record pay rise, to end a nearly six-week strike. The agreement included a 25% wage increase over the four-and-a-half-year life of the contract, with an initial increase of 11%.
OBSERVATION - This will likely force the other two car makers to make the same or similar agreements. The strike has reportedly made a $9 Billion dollar hit on the economy.
***
According to a report by Oilprice.com, the oil industry is facing growing difficulties in getting funding from banks for ongoing operations and exploration.
“If you have the word ‘refinery’ anywhere in your title, you’re not going to get finance,” Alwyn Bowden, chief executive officer of Malaysia’s Pengerang Energy Complex, said at an industry conference, as quoted by Bloomberg.
Banks are also increasingly demanding emission-cutting targets from the oil refiners seeking financing, Bowden noted.
OBSERVATION - Bankers are tied into the goals of the WEF to eliminate fossil fuels in their entirety. Thus, through banking syncopates they are pushing their agenda forward.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Jewish students at Cooper Union college were locked in the school library because a pro-Hamas gathering found out Jews were there. So they brought the protest inside and blocked all the exits. Then they started banging on the doors to the library, trying to get in. The Jewish students had to be evacuated via tunnels for their safety
OBSERVATION - Directed physical violence towards jews and in particular, jews on college and university campuses are starting to increase and the school leadership is doing essentially nothing to reign in these attacks.
IN RELATED - The Anti-Defamation League claims there has been a 388% rise in anti-Semitism since October 7. Anti-Semitic incidents in the United States have surged by close to 400% in the weeks following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, according to the Jewish advocacy group the Anti-Defamation League (ADL).
OBSERVATION - Race based conflict expands to include race AND religion.
***
Last weeks pro-Palestinian protestors storming of the Cannon House Office Building and the Rotunda was funded largely by the supposed “Jewish” organizations Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP) and IfNotNow - Soros. Soros’s philanthropic work, JVP was awarded several grants totaling $650,000 that bankrolled its ‘human rights’ campaign and ‘social welfare activities’ in the Middle East, according to a grant database maintained by the Soros-funded Open Society Foundations.
fNotNow has also been the beneficiary of Soros’s money. Soros’s grant-making Foundation to Promote Open Society handed $200,000 in 2019 and another $200,000 in 2021 to the 501(c)(3) IfNotNow Education Fund for growing membership, visibility, and impact around ‘general support’ to end Israeli ‘occupation in the Middle East’ (meaning the eradication of Israel), Open Society Foundations grant records show.
OBSERVATION - I’m sure by now no one is shocked at this.
Terrorism -
Police are actively looking for a “Robert Card”, a person of interest in the shooting in Lewiston ME that has killed at least 22 and wounded 60 others. According to Law Enforcement, Card is a trainer firearms instructor, and is believed to be in the Army reserves.
Card was also reported to have been committed to mental health facility for two weeks during summer 2023 and subsequently released. That means he was involuntarily committed which means he was banned from owning or possessing firearms.
He remains at large this morning. Latest is he is suspected to have fled to Massachusetts.
OBSERVATION - The left of course screams ‘gun control’ and gun bans. What we have is a mental health problem, not a gun problem.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Aircraft trackers note that carrier-based C-2A flights in the eastern Atlantic indicate that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower CSG has reached the Azores archipelago and is expected to reach the Strait of Gibraltar in approximately 36 to 48 hours, depending on its speed.
***
The Army air defense units deploying to the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas war come from Fort Bliss in Texas, Fort Liberty in North Carolina, and Fort Sill in Oklahoma, the Pentagon said Tuesday.
The units are bringing Patriot missile batteries and a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, battery to the region after more than a dozen drone and rocket attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria over the past week that the Pentagon has blamed on Iranian proxies. NBC News reported Tuesday evening that two dozen American military personnel were wounded in the attacks, but that could not be immediately confirmed by Military.com.
Although Pentagon officials didn’t name the Army units being deployed, Fort Bliss is home to the 11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade, Fort Liberty hosts the 108th Air Defense Artillery Brigade, and Fort Sill is home to the 31st Air Defense Artillery Brigade.
RELATED - Air plane observers/trackers note a very high number of C17 and C5A in the air and in route to the middle east region.
OBSERVATION - The speed at which these batteries can be deployed and made operational is believed to govern how soon the Gaza ground war will kick off. Either the biden regime puts the spurs to the pony and gets them up an going ASAP, or drags it out in order to mess up Israeli planning.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrat Congressman Jamaal Bowman has been criminally charged for falsely pulling a fire alarm in the Cannon Office Building. Bowman said in a statement to Axios that he will plead guilty to the charge and agree to pay a $1,000 fine.
OBSERVATION - J6 protestors were jailed and are in prison right now for the same criminal violations Bowman committed - two tiered justice system strikes again.
***
New Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, served as legal defense for Trump during both impeachment trials, voted against all Ukraine spending after the initial bill, objected to certifying 2020 election fraud, and has called for the arrest of Nancy Pelosi.
OBSERVATION - The full republican caucus voted in favor of Johnson yesterday and given his creds above show that the eGOP factor in the caucus was throughly defeated in this speakership battle. Leftist heads on the other side of the aisle are exploding.
***
The Biden administration’s nominee to be the next ambassador to Israel is pledging full American support and funding for an anti-Semitic United Nations organization known to cooperate with Hamas.
Jack Lew, the former Treasury Department secretary who is nominated as U.S. ambassador to Israel, informed Congress in written communication that if confirmed to the post, he will not eliminate taxpayer funding for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), an aid organization known to use anti-Semitic materials in its schools and preach Israel’s destruction.
U.S. funding to UNRWA, which topped $730 million under the Biden administration, has long been a flashpoint among Republicans in Congress, and was frozen under the Trump administration due to the organization’s promotion of Jew hatred. UNRWA is known to employ teachers who call for Jews to be murdered and glorify Hamas terrorists, including its leaders, according to watchdog groups. The Iranian-backed terror group that recently slaughtered nearly 1,500 Israelis is also reported to store weapons and other munitions at UNRWA facilities.
OBSERVATION - The schizophrenic biden Israel foreign policy continues to wobble. However, the anti-Israel core of the leftist democrat leadership comes to the surface on instances like this.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The day after leaving the nuclear accords, Russia successfully tested its ability to deliver a massive retaliatory nuclear strike by land, sea and air.
They test launched missiles from a land-based silo, a nuclear submarine, and from long-range bomber aircraft.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu called it a rehearsal for “a massive nuclear strike” in response to an aggressor’s nuclear attack.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain increasing to nearly every day in the forecast for starting 25th of October.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russians continue to mindlessly push against the Avdiivka, making gains on the northern margin. Reports that Russia has committed the local operational reserve forces to try to obtain more momentum.
Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.
Russian espionage group was arrested in Sumy region. 3 persons were detained.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukraine forces made gains on the Tokmak axis, securing the flanks to a greater degree while putting pressure on Russian forces there.
Bakhmut Axis -
Russian milbloggers are saying that the Ukrainian forces have breached the rail line south of Bakhmut. The say Russians are being forced back out of the trench line. Ukraine has been making incremental gains in this area for over a month. These reports by generally accurate Russian sources suggests that Russians are potentially on the brink of a major loss which would result in southern supply routes into Bakhmut being physically cut off by Ukraine forces.
Avdiivka Front - (Added this because action here has become a major front for Russia)
Fighting continues as Russian forces use ‘meat’ attacks on both sides of the salient Equipment and personnel losses continue to be extremely high, causing some observers to note that this may be the most costly battle of the war - exceeding even Bakhmut.
Russia throwing more troops on the northern flank of the sailent where they have been able to eek out minor gains over the past few days.
Partisan Resistance ——
Ukrainian military intelligence claims a vehicle with 4 FSB agents was blown up in Berdiansk on 23th October.
OUTLOOK -
The battle for Avdiivka is starting to overshadow Ukraines offensive actions in Tokmok and Bakhmut sectors. This fight will go on for weeks.
Europe / NATO General –
“Hungarian parliament rejects proposal to vote on Sweden’s NATO bid”, - Associated Press
OBSERVATION - Hungary has drifted closer and closer to the Russia sphere of influence lately - largely over EU/NATO support of Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
PM Netanyahu - “I scheduled a date for the ground operation with the Chief of Staff. We are preparing for a ground invasion and I will not specify when or how, and I will not go into detail about the considerations that the majority of the public is unaware of.”
NOTE - Strong evidence that the delay is to permit US air defense systems to be deployed and set up across the middle east in response to expected ballistic missile attacks by Iran once the ground war in Gaza starts.
***
Israeli media reports the IDF infantry and armor carried out an extensive operation into Gaza overnight. Per multiple outlets, this incursion was more extensive than previous ones in recent days.
NOTE - There have been numerous recon in force penetrations into Gaza. Apparently what made this action unique was that there was a more significant raid factor rather than recon.
GENERAL ——————————-
The big political / PR war continues in the effort to force Israel into a ceasefire. Western military and in particular US military assets continue to pour into the region.
***
Latest check on the USS Eisenhower CSG indicates that they are about a day out from the Straits of Gibraltar, thus could be at least 4 - 5 more days from the eastern Med. It is still expected to transit the Suez canal to join CENTOM forces in the Persian Gulf region.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Hamas et al still manages a few rocket barrages while the IAF continues to strike Hamas facilities, ammo dumps and underground networks. One large ammo dump was hit yesterday that was adjacent to a hospital - numerous large secondary explosions were noted.
Large recon in force overnight that was closer to a raid hit many Hamas positions before withdrawing.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued harassing fire from Hezbollah and retaliatory IDF fire. The number of Hezbollah members killed in Israeli army strikes in southern Lebanon amid the Gaza war reaches an estimated 45
***
Fires are still consuming large forest areas at the border in “Al-Labouneh,” south of Naqoura, due to the incendiary ammunition bombing and light shells that the Israeli army dropped yesterday evening. From time to time, the sounds of explosions of mines from leftovers are heard.
NOTE - Arabs claim these incendiaries are targeting civilians. The fact of the matter is they are being used to ignite brush fires along the border to deny Hezbollah forces camouflage / concealment to prevent infiltration attempts.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The military base of the American forces was targeted in the town of Al-Shaddadi in the Hasakah countryside. The base was attacked with mortar shells by unknown armed groups.
Syrian media: 5 missiles targeted an American base and its surroundings in the Hasakah countryside in NE Syria. Reports of another attack on U.S Forces at the Abu Hajar Airport in Northeastern Syria.
WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli army says troops have arrested some 1,000 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 660 affiliated with Hamas, since the war began on Oct. 7. Overnight, 46 Hamas members were detained
NOTE - Some may wonder why so much activity in the West Bank. I’ve noted for many months that Hamas has been growing its base in the West Bank due to the impending new leadership elections. Current leader, Abbas, is losing support to these more radical sections and things threaten to blow up as they did in Gaza in 2008 with a civil war - on that resulted in Hamas rule. The Palestine authority in the West Bank was trying to avoid such a repeat of history. Contrary to arab propaganda, moslems in the West Bank have had considerable freedom to work in Israel and the region in general was relatively prosperous and generally stable. Only with the onset of elections have Hamas accelerated its efforts to gain a foothold.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The French Navy has announced that the FS Tonnerre (L-9014) a Mistral-Class amphibious assault ship is currently being deployed to the Eastern Mediterranean in order to link-up with NATO Naval Forces including the Carrier Strike Group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) off the coast of Israel; this deployment follows an announcement earlier today by French President Macron that France will be sending a Hospital Ship to the region to assist residents of the Gaza Strip.
***
The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister meets with the political leadership of Hamas in Doha and discusses with them the fate of the detainees
***
Iran’s IRGC chief commander says if Israel engages in ground operation “the dragon of Gaza will devour them. If they set foot in Gaza, they’ll be buried there. They have no other way… Gaza is the staff of the Moses that will devour the Pharaohs if they enter on the ground”
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Reset the clock on when the ground invasion into Gaza kicks off. Israel has set a date - probably based on US estimates of how quickly they can get air defense assets deployed across the middle east.
How hard and fast that date is, is uncertain. However, I think it is pretty firm. In the meantime, I expect the IAF to continue to target key Hamas locations and known tunnel areas while IDF launches more raids like last night - both to prepare the battlefield for invasion.
The delay is likely to be a matter of weeks - given how large of a deployment is required. Until then most likely a continuation of the past few days.
Hamas will use the delay to further its propaganda campaign and dribble out a couple of hostages at a time as a way of trying to show themselves somehow as the ‘good’ guys.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said he sees no advantage in the continued presence of Russian military bases in Armenia, the Wall Street Journal reported.
He also told the newspaper that Yerevan is looking for new partners because Moscow, he claimed, “has failed to fulfill its allied commitments”.
OBSERVATION - Russia left them hanging out cold and this resulted in ethic cleansing of Armenian Christians in the Ndagermo-Karmach territory.
Short sighted... here's my take: Iran knew the Hamas attack would pull the United States into posturing (which it did) and to spread Israel thin, boost oil prices (helping Russians) and weaken the US further to assist China with their takeover of Taiwan...
How do you do all of that?
Lure large US ships to the ME - then sink one or two in the straights of Hormuz. That closes down oil shipping for months. Cripples Iran's ME oil exporters competitors, raises prices for Russian oil, grinds industry to a halt in Europe and the US and allows for China to invade Taiwan while the Pentagon searches for petrolatum products to fuel our war machine caused by Biden draining our emergency reserves... (either Biden was stupid or was paid off... )
The short term solution - stay OUT of the straights. Make loans for refineries... get real.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Germany’s APOLLO NEWS here reports that soccer club VfL Osnabrück is now “penalizing its employees with climate fines.”
“Based on an individual CO₂ footprint calculated by the club, deductions are made from their salaries as a penalty for climate-unfriendly behavior,” reports the German site
As it’s probably a dream of many people to be employed by a professional sports team, the club will probably get away with it. Unhappy employees can be easily replaced.
But in the current environment of a severe skilled workers shortage, other companies may be extremely hesitant to enact such a draconian and personally intrusive policy. It also likely violates German labor law. In any case, VfL Osnabrück does show just how loony the climate craze is getting.
According to the APOLLO site: “The soccer club calculates the amount of salary that is deducted based on things like how far its employees travel to work or how much meat they consume.”
According to the VfL Osnabrück site: “Common good clause: VfL employees compensate for professional CO₂ emissions.”
OBSERVATION - Not sure how they guesstimate how much employees eat or use, but probably a blanket amount. This is but a precursor to what the WEF and its overlords want for the general sheeple - all controlled by a programmable, digital currency powered by AI / quantum computing.
Economy –
The US economy reportedly grew 4.9% in the third quarter. Problem is nearly all sectors of the economy do not reflect such robust growth.
Price increases accelerated and Americans’ real disposable personal income (DPI) and savings rate fell, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Thursday in its initial (“advance”) estimate.
Adjusted for inflation, “Real” GDP increased at a 4.9% annual rate in the third quarter, after rising 2.1% in the second quarter. In current dollars, GDP rose 8.5% ($560.5 billion) in the third quarter to a level of $27.62 trillion, up from the previous quarter’s 3.8% ($249.4 billion) gain.
Disposable personal income (DPI) increased only 1.9%, just a third of its 6.1% second-quarter growth.
Since prices rose faster than income, real disposable personal income actually decreased 1.0% in the third quarter, after rising 3.5% in the second quarter.
The personal saving rate - personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income - fell from 5.2% to 3.8%.
OBSERVATION - Not quite the good news biden wants you to believe.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
UC Berkeley is offering extra credit points to students for taking part in an anti-Israel protest.
OBSERVATION - Berkeley is but one of many colleges and universities beating the pro-Hamas, anti-Israel drums across America. Home base to Antifa and affiliated leftists / anarchists this is not surprising as it again affirms that these institutions are not for education but indoctrination.
***
IN RELATED, I expect to see a full slate of pro-Hamas protests across the country this weekend, many anchored in / around colleges and universities. Expect that some will use the traffic blocking terror tactics - especially in those Antifa et al strongholds.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
The Maine shooter was (as always) known to law enforcement, previously committed to a mental institution and prohibited from owning firearms. The search for him has entered the second day. Relatives reportedly texting him to surrender and turn himself in.
OBSERVATION - A lot of his background - except for the parts that fit the liberal narrative - are scarce on the interwebs.
***
Yousra Fazili serves as Chief of Staff for the Pentagon Comptroller. She had also worked for a Qatari diplomat. Qatar is a state sponsor of Hamas. And Hamas is an arm of the Muslim Brotherhood. From her position in the Pentagon she is promoting the propaganda of Hamas in the current conflict. Islamic penetration into all facets of our govt and military are being exposed by this war.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Pentagon confirms that 900 US troops have deployed or are deploying to the Middle East. These troops will not be going to Israel, but are designed “to support regional deterrence efforts…”
Pentagon adds that many of these troops are air defense related.
***
Amphibious warships USS Bataan (LHD-5) and USS Carter Hall are in the Gulf of Aden approaching the Red Sea as of Thursday, Navy officials confirmed to USNI News. The other ship in the three-ship Bataan Amphibious Ready Group, USS Mesa Verde (LPD-19) has been operating in the Eastern Mediterranean since last week.
Meanwhile the USS Eisenhower CSG is approaching the Mediterranean and is still expected to travel through it to the Suez Canal to the Middle East to operate in U.S. 5th Fleet.
***
Large swaths of the National Security Agency, the agency in charge of collecting foreign signals intelligence for the Department of Defense, went from normal shifts to 24 hour watches earlier this month amid preparation for Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza, two sources told Breitbart News.
The staffing change, which occurred the first weekend after the October 7 terrorist attacks in Southern Israel by Hamas, was to support Israel as they prepared to invade Gaza, but also to monitor threats against U.S. forces in the region.
OBSERVATION - Well, no DUh. As a one time cog in the NSA collection apparatus I’m surprised that the NSA had anything OTHER than 24/7/365 operations today. “Normal shifts” LOL, what a bunch of day beggars.
***
The U.S. Air Force has activated two detachments at Robins Air Force Base in Georgia dedicated to electronic warfare and its future applications.
The green light, given Oct. 25 at a ceremony inside an aviation museum, marks a step toward the realization of the 950th Spectrum Warfare Group, tasked with assessing the effectiveness of electronic warfare across dozens of aircraft while improving jamming and spoofing capabilities in large military exercises.
OBSERVATION - In an increasingly technological based world and weapons systems, counter measures become even more critical. Stealth is not enough by itself any more because the electronic signatures of those aircraft with their networking with other aircraft are extremely vulnerable to countermeasures.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
After a 7 month review by his university, Mark Skidmore, was exonerated of all charges and his new, improved paper was published in a more credible peer-reviewed journal.
Michigan State University Professor Mark Skidmore was exonerated of all ethics charges after a 7-month investigation. His paper was revised and was reinstated in the peer-reviewed literature. It revealed that over 250,000 people were killed by the COVID vaccine. Others have found similar numbers.
OBSERVATION - The truth continues to come out, and our govt/Fauci was well aware of these numbers and actively worked to suppress them.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Very disturbing reports if true that Mark Meadows worked for the FBI as an informant and wore a wire to record all conversations with President Trump, while he was the Chief of Staff to him.
OBSERVATION - This is unbelievable if true. Shows the depth of compromise and control the deep state has in DC.
***
With a new Speaker of the House, committees fired up and have already put forth 5 of the 12 appropriations bills necessary to prevent govt shut down. Vast turn around from McCarthy’s muddle everything up to the last minute and pass an omnibus bill or uncontrolled extension.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The morning after a horrific mass shooting from an apparently mentally-ill man in Maine, Darth Kamala is out here using the situation to endorse a nationwide gun ban à la Australia. She says this gesturing to the Australian Prime Minister who just so happens to be visiting the White House.
In the ‘90s, Australia confiscated 650,000 guns in what they euphemistically called a “buy back” program. And that’s EXACTLY what Kamala Harris is asking for here.
Australia only has a population of 26 million people, mostly homogenous, spread out across an entire continent. If you look at mass murder sprees, the gun ban did absolutely nothing to change them because people can use anything as a weapon. Like most western countries between 2000 and 2020, the murder rate went down, but they traded in their guns for safety and now have total tyranny.
OBSERVATION - The left will press for ‘gun control’ but until they can seize both houses of congress and the WH, their schemes will be left on hold. The House will not capitulate to any form of gun control or ‘buy backs’. We have a mental health problem - not a gun problem.
Illegal Immigration –
This is not a Babylon Bee article! Sanctuary city prime, NYC is offering illegals a free ticket to anywhere, as long as he never sees their faces again.
Meanwhile, for those who turn down the free airline ticket offer, New York City officials are discussing handing out tents to newly arrived migrants and housing them in encampments in parks, according to a report. The city has already erected large tents to shelter asylum seekers but this new proposal would be more like a campsite, sources told The Wall Street Journal.
The report comes after Mayor Eric Adams yesterday said ‘everything is on the table’ when asked whether his plans to shelter migrants would extend to Manhattan’s iconic Central Park.
Adams has said the city has run out of hotel rooms and indoor sites to house the 65,000 migrants that remain in its care after 120,000 arrived in the last 18 months.
OBSERVATION - Now multiply this dilemma thousands of times over and it becomes very apparent that one of the goals of this unrestricted border invasion is to crash our very generous social welfare system and provide new foot soldiers for any leftist uprising.
China –
The death of a leader in China can usher in big changes, it did after Mao Zedong, or can lead to political upheaval, like it did when grieving for Hu Yaobang morphed into the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.
For this reason, the passing of former premier Li Keqiang has already triggered various measures to ensure that stability is maintained.
A crackdown on VPN use is underway to reduce the access of Chinese citizens to the parts of the internet not controlled by the Communist Party.
The Party doesn’t want mourning for a popular, liberal, former number two leader to generate wider criticism of the current administration, led by Xi Jinping.
It is not just that Li died so suddenly, suffering a heart attack just months after stepping down, but because of what he represented: a way of potentially governing China with different priorities to those of the General Secretary Xi.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-67236049
OBSERVATION - Reflects uncertainty by Xi as to public confidence in his leadership.
North/South Korea –
SK and US forces exercised a response to a hypothetical Hamas-style attack by NK.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
*****
The Russian army is abandoning the BTG (Battalion Task Group) concept. In February 2022 one of the surprising developments was the failure of the BTG system. Russia had expanded the use of BTGs since the 1980s because BTGs had consistently proved successful in many small wars, including the rather large operation in Afghanistan during the 1980s.
Systems like the BTG began to appear during World War II when it was found that forming temporary task forces containing tank and infantry units were more effective. The Germans did the same thing, calling them battle groups (Kampfgruppen) and the Americans adopted the practice after World War II. There was an important difference between the Western battle groups and the current BTGs. The Western battle groups were kept simple (mainly infantry and tank companies) with the addition of combat engineers or artillery as needed. American infantry officers got lots of realistic training using these battle groups. Western armies had many career NCOs to make sure the troops performed well.
Russia expanded their BTGs after 2000 and added more support units so that each BTG had most of the support capabilities usually found in a division. These support units were smaller in the BTG, often a dozen or so specialists riding in a few trucks. The BTG commander put an officer in charge of all these non-combat support troops and the dozens of trucks they traveled in. The combat element of a BTG always consisted of a few hundred infantry and ten or twenty tanks. But now there were small (platoon sized) detachments of specialists. The only ones that were always present were a dozen or so self-propelled 152mm guns and somewhat more 82mm and 120mm mortars. There was also a medical detachment. In the last decade a detachment of fire control troops was added to coordinate all that firepower with some UAVs to scout for targets. There were also a small number of self-propelled anti-aircraft weapons in addition to the portable anti-aircraft missiles carried by individual soldiers. There were several other specialist units that could be added as needed. Total strength of a BTG varied depending on how it was assembled. Official personnel strength varied from 600 to 800 personnel but was more like 300-500 in peacetime.
These new BTGs became the standard for Russian divisions, which now consisted of two or three brigades. Each of these usually had just two BTGs. The division had fewer support units because most of these troops were now assigned to BTGs or brigades. By 2021 there were 170 BTGs. The combat elements usually consisted of one tank company, two or three infantry companies and one or two batteries of artillery. While BTGs had some contract (volunteer) troops, most of the rest of the BTG personnel were conscripts. The conscripts had several shortcomings. They could not be used in a combat zone; their term of service was only one year, and they were not as well trained as the contract troops (or trained at all). By law conscripts were not allowed in a combat zone unless it was wartime, and they were defending Russia.
This massive adoption of BTGs was a mistake that became obvious when nearly half the available BTGs were sent into Ukraine in early 2022. Many newly formed BTGs were sent to the Ukrainian border in late 2021 to threaten Ukraine and if that did not work, to invade.
The flaw in the BTGs was not obvious until they encountered well-armed and motivated opponents. That happened soon after they crossed the border into Ukraine. The leadership in these BTGs simply could not handle the complex composition of BTGs. Senior Russian leaders knew this from the performance of BTG leaders during military exercises. This was not a surprise as the quality of officers had declined in the last decade and there were still not enough experienced NCOs.
More analysis at link
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htmurph/articles/20231027.aspx
Additional note - Most Russian units are far more ad hoc as the officer corps have been decimated since Feb 2022 and most are understrength in both men and equipment.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Continued cool, 50’s- 60’s with scattered rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Reports that two ATACMS missiles hit at least, three S-400 air defense systems and were destroyed. Russia tried to claim they shot the missiles down by showing images of the rear third of the rocket. However, that is commonly all that remains of the cluster munitions versions after bomblet dispersion. Videos of the strikes aftermath show considerable flames and secondary explosions.
The Russia Black Sea fleet suffered apparent another loss yesterday that the anti-mine ship “Vladimir Kozitsky” was blown up in Sevastopol. According to local residents, the ship suddenly exploded in the outer roadstead of Sevastopol Bay. Smoke was reported coming from the engine room.
Russians continue to push against the Avdiivka, making gains on the northern margin. Reports that Russia has committed the local operational reserve forces to try to obtain more momentum.
Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.
Tokmak Axis -.
Explosions were reported in Tokmak from an apparent Ukrainian strike on a Russian ammo/logistical site.
Avdiivka Front -
Russia continues to throw more reserves into the fight to try to retain terrain recently captured.
OUTLOOK -
The battle for Avdiivka is starting to overshadow Ukraines offensive actions in Tokmok and Bakhmut sectors. Reports indicate that Russia is scraping the front line to supply even more units for this fight. This fight will go on for weeks.
However, in reassigning units, Russia potentially opens itself up for breakthroughs on the Tokmok, Bakhmut or Kherson fronts.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
Major raid into Gaza
Major operation in the West Bank.
GENERAL ——————————-
A lot of propaganda / RUMINT that Israel will be using nerve agents in the Hamas tunnels - tune it out as BS.
Also numerous videos out there claiming to show US marines off loading from aircraft into Israel - again false reporting as the videos are from US Army (not marines0 and deplaning in Europe a couple years ago. This is just some of the crap that continually flows across the Gaza / Israel war feeds and makes it frustrating to sort out the legit from the BS.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF’s 36th division conducted another large raid into Gaza and returned upon its completion. -Israeli Army Radio. The area targeted was reportedly the Shujayyah area. Shujayyah is known to host a high number of Hamas tunnels and military positions.
NOTE - This was larger than the previous raid, indicating things are building towards an eventual offensive into Gaza.
Hamas et al launched a number of rocket barrages towards central Israel overnight causing some minor damage. IAF continued to hammer Hamas related sites across Gaza, claiming to have killed several more key leaders.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
More os the same, harassment fire from Hezbollah and counter fire from Israel.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
See “Syria” section below regarding attacks/counter attacks by Iranian proxy militias in eastern Syria in response to the Gaza war.
WEST BANK——————————-
A force of over 100 IDF armored vehicles including a number of Caterpillar D9 Armored-Bulldozers have reportedly entered the City of Jenin in the West Bank in what appears to be a large-scale raid for the arrest of Hamas and PIJ Members. Fierce fighting reported.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Reports of a missile impact in the Egyptian town of Taba, close to the far south Israeli border, near the Israeli town of Eliat on the Gulf of Aqaba. At least five injured in the fall, according to this report.
According to the Egyptian army, the explosion in Taba was caused by an unidentified drone. In Nueva it is not yet clear exactly what happened.
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari: “In the last few hours, an aerial threat was detected in the Red Sea. Fighter jets were scrambled to the threat and the issue is under investigation. To our understanding, the impact that was in Egypt originates from this threat. Israel will work together with Egypt and the US and tighten the defense against threats from the Red Sea area.”
Based on the IDF statement, it appears that the leading candidate for whatever hit the town was fired by Houthi rebels from Yemen.
Multiple local sources suggest that a second projectile impacted the Red Sea town of Nuweiba, in Sinai. This follows an impact in Taba.
OBSERVATION - Two strikes in the same region most likely affiliated with Houthi, and not a misdirected Hamas rocket. Debris from the device will shed light on if it was a drone/cruise missile or a ballistic missile. Egypt has stated it reserves the right to respond to the perpetrators.
Years ago when the Saudi/Houthi fight was hot and heavy, the Houthi made long range threats on Israeli targets in this area. It hosts an Israeli naval base, giving access to the Red Sea via the Gulf of Aqaba.
***
Hamas leaders held meetings with the Russian Foreign Ministry and not with the presidency yesterday.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - These large military raids into Gaza will continue until the actual ground assault kicks off. They server multiple purposes. First is to recon and gauge Hamas positions and responses. Second, they give commanders practical experience on what will be happening when the initial assaults begin, giving them ground reality. Third, working out any bugs in command and control. Forth, these raids are large enough to keep Hamas et al on edge, with a degree of uncertainty if they are only a raid or the initiation of a full blown assault. Will can also lull them into a false sense of security thinking that the full assault is nothing but a big raid.
Depending on the tempo of the deployment of air defense assets, limited to a degree by available cargo capacity, my guess is that the invasion is now going to kick off around November 13th - during a new moon. This gives Israel an advantage with night vision capabilities over Hamas. This also gives the US two weeks to complete its military deployments of air defense as well as positioning the USS Eisenhower CSG into position in the Arabian Sea region.
Iran –
Iran announced “The start of large-scale maneuvers for all ground forces formations tomorrow. (Friday)”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian issued an abrupt warning at the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday, declaring that the U.S. would “not be spared from this fire” if Israel continues to retaliate against Islamic terrorist group Hamas in the Gaza Strip
“I say frankly to the American statesmen, who are now managing the genocide in Palestine, that we do not welcome [an] expansion of the war in the region. But if the genocide in Gaza continues, they will not be spared from this fire,” he told a meeting at the 193-member General Assembly.
OBSERVATION - Pretty well an open secret that Iran has sleeper cells, probably composed of their own IRGC or Hezbollah/Hamas affiliated individuals in the US, most likely facilitated in recent years by the biden no border policy.
Iraq -
Iranian backed militias continue to pose a threat to US forces in the nation.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Saudi Arabia –
After initially being very vocal, SA has quieted down considerably.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
US now says 19 attacks have been carried out vs US troops since October 17 - with 3 new attacks yesterday. In response, US F-16s struck a weapons storage facility & a ammunition storage facility in AbuKamal Syria used by the IRGC & Iran-linked groups, per a senior military official.
Reports IRGC backed militias have attacked coalition assets at the camp near the Koniko gas field with rockets again tonight. No reports yet on any casualties.
More reports of attacks on coalition assets in the region, another drone attack now reported tonight at the nearby Al-Omar oilfield. No reports on casualties.
RGC backed militias have reportedly launched another drone attack against U.S assets at the Harir airbase in Erbil. No details on any casualties as yet. The number of attacks in Iraq/Syria now in October is fast approaching 20, some causing minor damage and casualties.
Two explosions were heard at the international coalition base at the Conoco gas plant in northeastern Deirezzor, with alarm sirens being activated at the base.
OBSERVATION - What the US calls “restraint” so far by US forces is viewed in the moslem world as weakness and only prods them to conduct more attacks. If you’ve followed my posts, Iran for months now has been working on a plan with Russia to force US forces out of eastern Syria and western Iraq, so these militias are well prepared for an extended operation. The two airstrikes are grossly insufficient to put fear back into these militias.
Venezuela -
Venezuelan National Assembly to conduct a popular referendum on defending Venezuela’s claim of the Essequibo, Guyana. Both the OAS and CARICOM communities condemn the Venezuelan referendum and CARICOM warns the referendum result could be used to justify the annexation of the territory
“We condemn any act that constitutes a breach of peace and an attempt to encroach on a country’s sovereign borders. This is an irrefutable violation of Guyana’s territorial rights and we support CARICO Morg’s statement.”
OBSERVATION - The Essequibo region is somewhere in the neighborhood of half the total area of Guyana. Not sure the current capability of the Venezuelan army , but it is still likely more than able to invade into the region and seize it. Interesting that this movement towards annexation follows the announcement of a treaty of sorts with the US over its oil production.