Threat Matrix

Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats

Globalism / Great Reset –

See Vanguard’s and BlackRock’s association with the rail road crisis in Ohio in “Misc of Note” below.

Wuhan virus –

Republican lawmakers in Idaho have introduced a new bill that seeks to make it illegal to administer mRNA shots in the state. The legislation aims to outlaw mRNA vaccines, such as the Covid jabs from Big Pharma giants Pfizer and Moderna. Anyone caught violating the bill by administering the shots would be charged with a misdemeanor.
House Bill 154 was sponsored by Representative Judy Boyle (R-Midvale) and Senator Tammy Nichols (R-Middleton).
OBSERVATION – Red state doing what it can to push back medical tyranny.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden makes surprise visit to Kyiv.

CW2/Domestic violence –

“We need a national divorce,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., tweeted on Monday. “We need to separate by red states and blue states and shrink the federal government,” Greene tweeted, going on to claim that everyone she talks to “says this.”
“From the sick and disgusting woke culture issues shoved down our throats to the Democrat’s traitorous America Last policies, we are done,” Greene wrote.

OBSERVATION – This is not the first time the term “National divorce” has been used, IIRC it first came from the leftists. The right however, has been more vocal given the overt targeting of nearly 50% of Americans by biden’s weaponization of govt agencies and increasing rights violations. Of course the left will be bleating a lot over her statements. Let there be no doubt, inspite of similar inclinations by the rank and file leftists (who think milk comes from stores), they will be against a ‘divorce’ all because of power and will not want power – in many cases controls of key food and resource producing regions – slipping out of their hands.

**
A Ukraine teenager who fled who her war-torn country last year and settled in San Francisco wants to return to her homeland after experiencing the violence of San Francisco’s public school system.

Yana told the newspaper that she has witnessed students repeatedly interrupt classes, cause disturbances, and blatantly disrespect teachers — all without disciplinary consequences. “Nothing happened,” Yana said, admitting she realized the behavior was “normal” for the school.

Unfortunately, Yana, a 13-year-old Ukrainian teenager, having escaped war, became a bullying target. She allegedly had her cellphone stolen, and a group of students threatened her. The incidents, instilling fear in Yana, caused her to stop going to school. Her family requested that she be moved to a different school, but the school district denied the request. She has not returned to school since.

OBSERVATION - The hell-holes schools in our major cities have turned into are simply a reflection on the leftist idea that punishment and holding the line against violence is somehow racist. Social justice requires non-punishment. This is also just a further reflection of the policies of those blue cities in general that softness on crime is the proper response to ‘grievances’ by different minority communities. Think about the ‘national divorce’ above in this context. Red areas are generally law abiding and don’t have problems at the level seen in blue regions. However, the progressive goals that dominate the urban areas are being forced upon those red area - creating conditions like the Greater Idaho movement and other new state drives.

Yana’s solution has to be get out of San Fransicko region and into a red state.

**
The National Endowment for Democracy, a nonprofit funded almost fully by the State Department, is cutting its relationship with a far-left group that targets conservative media, including Newsmax, as disinformation.
Global Disinformation Index (GDI), funded by George Soros’ Open Society Foundations, came under fire last week when Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., learned of the connection, a source familiar with the situation told Newsmax on Monday.

“The State Department should not be funding woke organizations who seek to censor and demonetize conservative outlets,” Stefanik said in a statement Thursday. “House Republicans will assert our oversight over the State Department’s funding of these type of groups.”

The “blacklist” was sent to advertisers which would decrease revenue for the outlets if followed — and eventually deplatform them.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/censorship-conservatives-elise-stefanik/2023/02/20/id/1109408/

OBSERVATION - When govt is weaponized to this extent and can openly flaunt its attacks on conservatives, thing are going around the corner – fast. This is just a minor victory and there are probably many other ‘programs’ out there doing similar as well as direct govt influencing of social media as so profoundly demonstrated by the Twitter Files releases.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Under the ongoing ‘negotiations’ on the debt ceiling, democrats continue to claim (with full media support) that the republicans are trying to kill Social Security and Medicare. So far the republicans seem to be losing the PR war. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., hit out at critics in an opinion piece released on Friday rejecting claims made by critics that his plan to sunset federal programs after five years unless extended by Congress is an attempt to cut Social Security and Medicare.

“I have never supported cutting Social Security or Medicare, ever.” he wrote. “To say otherwise is a disingenuous Democratic lie from a very confused president.”

**
McCarthy released a boat load of suppressed videos from the J6 protest that pelosi’s stazi tried to keep sealed.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Rapidly closing in on the one year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.

US reportedly gave Russia a few hours notice of biden’s travel to Kyiv.

The US Ambassador to Russia has been summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry. Protest note has been handed to US Ambassador to Russia in connection with the expansion of US help to Ukraine, Russia demands from Washington the withdrawal of military equipment from Ukraine and explanations about the explosions at Nord Stream

President Putin’s State of the Nation speech - he spoke for nearly two hours.
Here are some of the key takeaways:
• Putin announced that Russia is suspending its participation in New Start - a strategic arms reduction treaty with the US
• Throughout his address Putin reiterated previous claims blaming Ukraineand the West for the war
• Another claim he reiterated was around Russia’s responsibility to “liquidate the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv”
• Russia is defending people’s lives, he says, claiming that Russia is not fighting Ukrainians and describing them as hostages instead
• It is “impossible” to beat Russia on the battlefield, Putin claims, adding that the Kremlin is using force to stop the war
• The West is seeking to change a “local conflict into a global one”, Putin claims
• Putin spoke at a great length that the “motherland” recognises those who have died in the war, adding he will set up a special foundation to help those affected by what he calls the “special military operation”
• In response, Ukraine said Putin’s speech showed Russia has “arrived at a dead end” - while the US described Putin’s speech as an “absurdity”
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-64713099

NUCLEAR THREATS –
Putin said on Tuesday that Russia was suspending its participation in the New START treaty with the United States that limits the two sides’ strategic nuclear arsenals. Putin stressed that Russia was not withdrawing from the treaty but the suspension further imperils the last remaining pillar of arms control between the United States and Russia,

RUMINT-
On Monday, Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, on Tuesday, accused the Russian defense minister and the chief of the general staff of depriving his fighters of munitions and trying to destroy Wagner - actions he said were equivalent to treason.
It is the second such message published by Prigozhin in two days. On Monday, he complained that unnamed officials were denying Wagner supplies out of personal animosity toward him. Prigozhin blamed Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, the country’s most senior soldier, for deliberately causing the arms shortages, which he said were causing heightened losses among Wagner troops fighting around Bakhmut.

OBSERVATION – Wee doggies, the long knives are coming out in this battle between Wagner and the MoD.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
- The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the formal integration of the Donetsk & Luhansk People’s Republics’ (DNR/LNR) militias into the Russian Armed Forces on FEB 19th in response to growing criticism of reported command changes within the proxy units.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures still ranging in the 30s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period. Weather systems generating about 75-100% cloud cover, not very optimum for CAS.
Donetsk forecast for the next 14 days calls for above freezing daytime temps. Showing only the next 7 days, rain with occasional snow mix for several. Highs in the low 40s the week after with off/on rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia continues to pressure Bahkmut from the north as Zelensky says Ukraine will defend (but not to the end) the city – inferring that Ukraine may be making plans to pull back to the next defensive line.
Attacks were also noted to the west of Donetsk.

OUTLOOK –
The Russian ‘offensive’ continues to slog on with minor success north of Bahkmut. This trend is expected to continue and that there is a growing likelihood that Ukraine will eventually be forced to withdraw. If this happens, Russia may swing their efforts northward to try to secure the northern margin of the Donbas and disrupt any potential Ukrainian offensive along the Kreminna-Svatove line.

One key observation is the apparent lack of any kind of a Russian reserve force. Normally, there is a reserve kept to exploit any breakthroughs. Observers and OSINT analysts note that any Russian reserve force is only acting as a body pool to send replacements to the units on the front. The whole 500K mobilization propaganda has been tossed out the window and unfounded. So what does Russia hold for any kind of ‘reserve’? Well, some see that if thrown into the combat, those ‘reserves’ would do little to affect the current battle.

This brings up the current Russian tactic of attacking on numerous axis that are not mutually supporting nor towards key, strategic objectives. The whole of the combat line from around Donetsk north to Svatove area, excluding the Bahkmut area- is full of small but persistent attacks. Russia has failed the common norm to focus their battle power on a key goal. Instead, it appears they are spread out like butter on toast with insufficient power to accomplish much. Some could argue that the tactic is freezing Ukraine units in place and thwart planning for the offensive, but Ukraine is not seen sending resources to these other areas nor consider them to be serious threats. I’ve noted before, Ukraine apparently is operating an economy of force with a mobile defense operation that continues to tear Russian forces up and still permits Ukranian buildup for offensive action.

Note on putin’s speech. No real big surprises, though many will be going over it in detail, only getting snippets now.

Poland –

Poland has restricted truck traffic at the last operating border checkpoint with Belarus, Kukuryki-Kozłowicze, starting February 21, 2023.

The restriction doesn’t apply to passenger traffic at the border crossing in Terespol, and Belarusian carriers will be able to enter Belarus through Lithuania and Latvia.
The restriction will remain in force until Minsk cancels the restrictions for Polish carriers.

OBSERVATION – Tension has been growing as similar restrictions are being placed on Belarus border crossings with Baltic Nations as well.

.
Europe / NATO General –

Sweden & Dutch military intelligence and security services have stated that threats from Russian intelligence operations have increased. Per the services, there is an increase of intelligence gathering on infrastructure targets.

Misc of Note –

The Federal Emergency Management Agency dispatched a team Saturday to East Palestine, Ohio, the site of a train crash that unloaded toxic chemicals into the environment.
Ohio GOP Gov. Mike DeWine announced the move to deploy a senior response official and a regional incident management assistance team Friday alongside FEMA Regional Administrator Thomas Sivak.

OBSERVATION – A day late and a dollar short. My other question is why DeWine is providing cover for FEMA and fed govt malfeasance.

MORE –
Vanguard and BlackRock, giant asset management firms known for their commitment to investing in liberal Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) causes, aren’t just the top two shareholders of Norfolk Southern, whose train derailment created an environmental disaster, they’re also among the top shareholders of the parent companies of the broadcast networks that have abandoned coverage of the ongoing toxic threat.
Last Tuesday NewsBusters reported that, while reports of health problems feared to be associated with the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio have continued, broadcast network news coverage has all but vanished

https://www.cnsnews.com/blog/craig-bannister/vanguard-blackrock-top-2-shareholders-norfolk-southern-and-abc-nbc-parent

OBSERVATION - Ecovirtuing be gone, these groups tied tightly to the WEF/GGR. So what is their angle?

Well, hump day with a -6 outside. Darn groundhog . . . .

Globalism / Great Reset –

Danish officials have proposed a $108 per ton carbon emissions tax on farmers. The tax would discourage beef and dairy farming and nudge farmers to produce other crops which have lower emissions.

OBSERVATION – Similar measures are being voiced here in the US and other countries around the world. The goal is to essentially shut down the beef and dairy industries. Remember the adage – he who controls the food, control the world. WEF has been very outspoken about eliminating this sector of agriculture.

**
From Reuters:
Swiss citizens will get the chance to try to ensure their economy never becomes cashless, a pressure group said, after collecting enough signatures on Monday to trigger a popular vote on the issue.
The Free Switzerland Movement (FBS) says cash is playing a shrinking role in many economies, as electronic payments become the default for transactions in increasingly digitised societies, making it easier for the state to monitor its citizens’ actions.

It wants a clause added to Switzerland’s currency law, which governs how the central bank and government manage the money supply, stipulating that a “sufficient quantity” of banknotes or coins must always remain in circulation…
Under Switzerland’s system of direct democracy, the proposal would become law if approved by voters, though government and parliament would decide how that law was implemented.

https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/02/06/cashless-society-not-in-switzerland-where-people-will-vote-to-keeping-banknotes-and-coins-

OBSERVATION – Pockets of resistance that will delay, but not stop, the WEF/GGR goal of a global electronic currency.

Wuhan virus –

Reports that the CDC has issued some report ‘confirming’ that deliberately dangerous / deadly doses of the jab were distributed to red states. Note this is someone’s analysis of VARES data and is not a CDC report per say. It will need a lot more analysis to verify. Conspiracy theory? Similar has been floating around for a while. Time will tell if it is another truth and not conspiracy.

Economy –

The National Association of Realtors on Tuesday published their monthly update, which showed that existing-home sales fell for the 12th straight month in January.

The inventory of unsold existing homes grew from the prior month to 980,000 at the end of January, as mortgage rates remain above 6% for a 30-year fixed.
The median existing-home sales price increased by 1.3% from one year ago to $359,000 .

OBSERVATION – It is being forecast (as well as stated by the Fed) that interest rates will continue at their high levels for at least another year, if not longer. The Fed stated that the housing market will essentially be ‘colleterial’ damage in their fight against inflation. Not only now have they damaged the market, they have also created an intense spiral in rental prices as people cannot afford to purchase.

**
America is bracing for a mass exodus of retail stores across the nation this year, with more than 800 big box locations set to close from California to New York.
Among the iconic names to announce they are downsizing includes Bed Bath & Beyond, Walmart, Gap and Party City.

At least 803 stores are set to be shuttered over the rest of 2023, with many forced into desperate cost cutting measures amid rampant inflation and declining bottom lines.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11773295/More-800-big-box-retail-stores-set-close-nation-year.html

OBSERVATION – Multiple whammies from wuhan shutdowns, to inability to hire workers and now the crushing effects of over a year of excessively high inflation. Add to this the likelihood of corporations looking into the crystal ball and seeing a recession, making it likely they are trying to get rid of dead wood sooner rather than later.
Now granted, the biggest loser is Bed Bath & Beyond – set to close over 400 stores – and is a case study in get woke, go broke.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden is scheduled to meet with the Bucharest Nine, a group of Eastern European NATO allies, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to reaffirm the U.S.’ unwavering support for the alliance in Warsaw, Poland. (FO)

POLITICAL FRONT –

Dominion voting machines just got slapped in the face during the discovery phase of its lawsuit against Fox news. Fox obtained emails/memos from Dominion clearly stating that their voting systems had serious bugs and flaws that would lead to voting errors.

In a 2018 email Fox News obtained from Dominion Director of Product Strategy and Security Eric Coomer, he acknowledged the company’s technology was marred by a “*critical* bug leading to INCORRECT results.”

OBSERVATION – Someone forgot to tell the Dominion’s legal team that discovery can cut both ways.
In a related story, an investigative report by some brave folks in Sacramento Kalifornian discovered boxes of Dominion voting machines in boxes all marked “made in China” as well as other irregularities.
Clearly, this is a deliberate effort to steal elections and help Marxists retain control govt.

**
New York Young Republican Club announced they have suspended Matthew Tyrmand, a member of the Project Veritas Board of Directors. According to NYYRC:

“Yesterday, James O’Keefe announced that the Project Veritas Board had terminated his responsibilities. O’Keefe established Project Veritas, which he has grown into one of the nation’s greatest hard-hitting investigative media sources.
After conducting a series of interviews, the Board of Governors of the New York Young Republican Club has learned that Matthew Tyrmand, a member of our Board of Advisors, may have engineered O’Keefe’s ouster on tenuous claims of financial malfeasance.

O’Keefe is a close friend of the Club, and Tyrmand serves as a member of the Club’s Board of Advisors. Pending the outcome of an internal investigation, to be conducted by our Board of Governors, Matthew Tyrmand will be suspended from his role. We believe in free speech and transparency of operations, and the credible reports we have received require full investigation to ensure that our Members’ interests are represented appropriately.

The Club will continue to be transparent with the public as more information can be released over time.”

https://thelibertydaily.com/ny-young-republican-club-suspends-matthew-tyrmand-likely-mastermind-of-james-okeefes-ousting-from-project-veritas/

OBSERVATION- This whole thing stinks to high heaven. It isn’t coincidence that this coup happened after Pfizer was ripped a new one. Money / threats are flowing somewhere. IMHO – the board was infiltrated by those who’s purpose was to sabotage the organization in an effort to destroy its credibility . The board is facing termination level pushback – and deservingly so.

**
Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., the National Republican Congressional Committee chairman, is calling for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to be held accountable for the details of a potentially explosive Politico report, which alleges that a research firm hired by the DCCC obtained military personnel filesof multiple Republican leaders — without proper consent.
“This systematic weaponization of Republican candidates’ military service against them is beyond disgusting. It is time for the DCCC to stop hiding and face accountability for their actions,” Hudson said in a statement.
Hudson then added: “The Department of Justice must immediately begin investigations into this matter, and if the DCCC violated the law, they should face prosecution.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/nrcc-dccc-politico/2023/02/21/id/1109589/

OBSERVATION – IIRC, I noted this action during the 2022 campaign season. Someone in the DoD needs to go to jail, but won’t because the DoJ will do absolutely nothing. This two – tiered justice system is a major contributor to the ‘national divorce’ discussions running across the interwebs of late.

Cyber Warfare –

Though not necessarily cyber warfare, this is stupid of an enormous magnitude.
The U.S. Department of Defense secured an exposed server on Monday that was spilling internal U.S. military emails to the open internet for the past two weeks.

The exposed server was hosted on Microsoft’s Azure government cloud for Department of Defense customers, which uses servers that are physically separated from other commercial customers and as such can be used to share sensitive but unclassified government data. The exposed server was part of an internal mailbox system storing about three terabytes of internal military emails, many pertaining to U.S. Special Operations Command, or USSOCOM, the U.S. military unit tasked with conducting special military operations.
But a misconfiguration left the server without a password, allowing anyone on the internet access to the sensitive mailbox data inside using only a web browser, just by knowing its IP address.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2023/02/sensitive-us-military-emails-spill-online/

Leaving SOCOM messages flapping in the breeze for two weeks – someone should be shot. Makes me harken back to when democrats released information that got a who mess of CIA agents killed globally. SOCOM is the tip of the spear in many operations around the world and any loss of life from these leaks – unspeakable.
However, rest assured no one will lose their job or go to jail over this ‘error’

China –

See Russia below on high level diplomatic meetings between China and Russia RE: Ukraine

Japan –

The Japanese and Vietnamese Coast Guard (VCG) concluded a joint training exercise off the coast of central Vietnam. The joint exercise occurred from February 13th to 19th and engaged in several training activities with several VCG personnel to enhance coordination between the two agencies.

OBSERVATION – Japan is quickly coming out of its box and more aggressively (in a mild manner) seeking to establish new ties with other countries in the region who also are threatened by Chinese expansionism.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Rapidly closing in on the one year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi met with the head of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, and China’s MOFA says they discussed the situation in Ukraine, without providing additional details.

NUCLEAR THREATS –
Some are saying that putin’s speech yesterday he said Russia would resume nuclear testing. His actual quote is
“Of course, we will not do this first. But if the United States conducts tests, then we will,” Putin threatened.

**
Putin announced that Russia would suspend its participation in the New START Treaty limiting strategic nuclear warheads but is not withdrawing from the treaty altogether, but that they will continue to uphold its key principles. That, along with some other nuclear sabre rattling appear to be following the motif Russia has used to threaten NATO to limit its involvement in the Ukraine war.

**
Russia attempted to test an ICBM whilst POTUS was in Ukraine, which seems to have failed. The U.S had been notified of the test. U.S. officials say the launch of a SARMAT missile, which the Russians informed the U.S. would occur hours prior thru deconfliction lines, failed.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia continues to pressure Bahkmut from the nort, making incremental gains. Analysts are noting that Russian seems to be attacking Bahkmut from the north rather than pushing around the city to cut it off. This means they are attacking into the maul of the meat grinder.

There are reports of explosions and the activity of Russian air defense in many places in the occupied east of Ukraine. According to even Russian propagandists, targets were at Donetsk, Makiivka, Khartsizsk, Ilovaisk, Mariupol and other places. Russian reporters say a ‘new’ weapon was being used.

OUTLOOK –
Back to the standard outlook – Russia to continue to press the attack on Bahkmut with other smaller attacks along the Donetsk – Svatove line. Meanwhile, Ukraine is getting new western systems and gearing up for their offensive. I see no change in this status quo in the near future.

Should Russia try something stupid in Moldova (see below), things could get very spicy, but not end well for Russia.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Moldova’s Prime Minister Recean has stated that he believes Russian Forces are preparing to Capture the International Airport in the Moldavian Capital City of Chișinău in order to transfer additional Troops into the Country. He says that Moldavian Security Forces are preparing for such a Situation.

Ukrainian President Zelensky has stated he’s recently received Intelligence that shows Russia is preparing to Capture the International Airport in the Moldavian Capital of Chișinău.

OBSERVATION – Seems to be ratching up the rhetoric a lot. I have to question the alledged Russian operation. They are already short men and equipment for Ukraine as it is. To divert a lot of resources first to capture the airport, then think they are just going to float on into Transnistria unopposed with very little support from Russia is highly questionable. I can see where, under different conditions, a push into Ukraine form Transnistria may have some strategic advantages, it would fail epically IMHO. There isn’t enough armor to support the forces.

The only thing Transnistria has going for it Russia wise is the reportedly largest stash of ammo in the region. But is it worth the risk?

Romania may independently come to Moldova’s aid, as well as Poland. This would not trigger an Article 5 response from NATO, but would greatly expand the potential for a direct NATO-Russia conflict.

Belarus -

Observers monitoring Belarus and Russian military activity note only training related operations and no significant force build up that would suggest an attack into Ukraine from the north.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Serbia further disses Russia by going with European/French fighter jets over Russian made one. The biggest complaint is that they can’t get the parts necessary from Russia to repair the jets they have.

Iran –

Germany has declared two employees of the Iranian embassy personae non gratae and ordered them to leave the country in protest over Iran sentencing a German national to death

Misc of Note –

East Palestine OH- Around 15,000 pounds of contaminated soil and 1.1 million gallons of contaminated water have been excavated from the site of a train derailment earlier this month in East Palestine, Ohio, train operator Norfolk Southern said on Feb. 20.

“Additionally, a series of pumps have been placed upstream to reroute Sulphur Run around the derailment site,” the carrier said. “The affected portion of Sulphur Run has been dammed to protect water downstream.”
“Environmental teams are treating the impacted portions of Sulphur Run with booms, aeration, and carbon filtration units,” Norfolk Southern said, adding that those teams are “also working with stream experts to collect soil and groundwater samples to develop a comprehensive plan to address any contamination that remains in the stream banks and sediment.”

OBSERVATION – This is just the start of a very massive and expensive clean-up. Norfolk Southern may soon regret that the took a shortcut in dealing with the VC cars in the first place. Having been in the environmental clean-up world for 25 years prior to retirement, this is only going to get bigger and bigger IMHO.

Globalism / Great Reset –

WHO Director General Tedros: “This week, WHO member states are hosting discussions on amendments to the International Health Regulations. Next week, countries will begin negotiations on a ‘Zero Draft’ of the new Pandemic Accord.”

OBSERVATION – Currently looks like WHO has made the maneuvers to get this pseudo treaty past the member states. The US has essentially capitulated to its terms – though there are some in congress that say otherwise. Problem is that treaty approvals are in the Senate – and it is unlikely that Schumer will intervein to either exert that prerogative to deny the WHO treaty. Biden is unlikely to submit it to the senate for approval because there is enough opposition to sustain a filibuster – effectively blocking the treaty – though biden would work around the edges to implement it anyway.

Wuhan virus –

In a study conducted by George Mason University’s Mercatus Center, researchers analyzed data to examine the efficacy of citywide Covid vaccine mandates in 2021.
Across the country, widespread mandates were issued for businesses, transport, and indoor public places.
However, the researchers say they found “no evidence” that these measures did anything to reduce Covid cases or deaths.
“These mandates imposed severe restrictions on the lives of many citizens and business owners,” the researchers said.

OBSERVATION – To which there is a collective ‘WELL DUH’..

**
Sort of related - Influenza vaccine effectiveness was under 50 percent this season, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), though a smaller study arrived at higher estimates.
Data from the CDC’s New Vaccine Surveillance Network showed the vaccines were 49 percent effective against hospitalization or emergency department visits.

OBSERVATION – Remember, this year’s jab is based on flu strains from last year. I’ve stopped getting the flu jab since in the past I’ve gotten sicker with it than with out it. I’ve also incorporated a vitamin supplement regime of D, Zinc, C etc to strengthen my immune systems capabilities for many years now. Likely why my suspected infection from wuhan was mild – even though I’m diagnosed with Immune Difficiency syndrome.

Economy –

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) introduced the CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) Anti-Surveillance State Act which would prohibit the Federal reserve banks from offering CBDC services or using CBDC in monetary policy. Emmer said any digital version of the U.S. dollar must uphold the American values of privacy, individual sovereignty, and free market competition. (FO)

OBSERVATION – This bill would be DOA in the Senate, but it does draw a line in the sand for the 2024 campaign wars.

**
This week, the Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, sent a note to investors relating the state of the market to the “death zone” and warning that the S&P 500, which is up 6 percent since the start of 2023, could fall as many as 3,000 points in the upcoming months once investors realize there won’t be a Federal Reserve pivot later this year.

https://100percentfedup.com/morgan-stanley-warns-u-s-stocks-are-in-death-zone-and-could-drop-26-in-first-half-of-2023/

OBSERVATION – The Fed “pivot” being a freezing or even reversal of the increased to the prime. Evidently some are drinking the koolaid that everything is going to be fine and placing their money where their mouth is. IDK where they get this pivot talk from – the stuff from the Fed that I’ve been seeing all says that rates will likely continue to increase and stay high for a considerable period of time.

IN RELATED - Federal Reserve officials signaled at their most recent meeting that additional interest rate hikes are necessary this year to bring inflation down to their 2% target, although many supported a slower pace of increases.
Minutes from the U.S. central bank’s Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting released on Wednesday showed that a number of policymakers are worried an “insufficiently restrictive” policy stance could “halt recent progress in moderating inflationary pressures” and keep consumer prices elevated for a longer period.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/fed-officials-signal-more-rate-hikes-likely-sticky-inflation-minutes-show

NOTE just like I said, the Fed is reluctant to stop raising the rates.

**
An analyst asked Walmart U.S. CEO John Furner and Walmart CEO Douglas McMillon during the grocery behemoth’s fourth-quarter earnings call whether the company expects food inflation trends to worsen or improve relative to other product categories. Furner remarked that food inflation “has been the most stubborn” driver of elevated price levels and noted that only “a little bit” has declined in the past several months. “We would have hoped and expected it to have come back more than it has going into this year,” he responded.
McMillon added that dry grocery items and consumables are the most “stubborn” and said that inflationary pressures in the categories would “be with us for a while.” He went on to say future nominal disinflation would nevertheless compound price increases from previous years.
“You’ll probably hear inflation numbers that start to sound lower, but you’ll have to remember that’s on a two-year stack,” McMillon continued. “So if inflation in dry grocery and consumables is only 3% or 5%, that’s on top of 15%. And that’s still a problem for the customer and still a pressure to their wallet.”

OBSERVATION – More high prices being forecast – minus any supply issues.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden stumbled and fell while going up the stairs of Air Force One departing Warsaw, Poland.

OBSERVATION – Don’t kill the messenger on this. He is obviously physically challenged with his age, he can hardly walk across that stage at times. But for those who’ve never taken the stairs into a jumbo jet, that is one heck of a long climb, even for the young and healthy. Most of you have only entered through a jet port and have no clue.

CW2/Domestic violence –

A bill filed in the California State Senate would exclude banks who work with gun makers from participating in California’s $40 to $80 billion annual municipal bond market and other financial markets in the state of California’s control. (FO)

OBSERVATION – State use of banks to try to influence/control aspects of the 2d Amendment freedoms of the country are increasing. Recently Texas did the reverse – prohibiting banks that tacitly condoned gun control. Kalifornia OTOH, will essentially be shooting itself in the foot by limiting bond sales in a market where more and more their fiscal policies are making such sales risky to investors to begin with.

**
Antifa et al activity has been at smaller, local levels of activity. Mostly in response to supporting activist trans rallies or against anti-grooming protests.

Potential Antifa threats continues with their protests in Atlanta over a new police training center that could go hot when construction resumes.

**
The Biden administration is preparing to revoke a Trump-era religious protection for university students, calling the rule “unduly burdensome.”
The Department of Education announced Tuesday that it is proposing to rescind the religious freedom section of the 2019 executive order “Improving Free Inquiry, Transparency, and Accountability at Colleges and Universities,” which requiresfederal departments to ensure that colleges receiving federal grants “promote free inquiry” consistent with the First Amendment.

If the Education Department revokes the rule, the agency will delegate cases of religious discrimination by universities to the courts, rather than threaten to pull grants from the institutions of higher education.

The executive order “caused confusion about schools’ nondiscrimination requirements” and is “unduly burdensome” for the department, said Nassar Paydar, assistant secretary for postsecondary education. The department insisted that with existing First Amendment protections, the executive order was unnecessary to prevent religious discrimination.

https://freebeacon.com/biden-administration/biden-admin-looks-to-repeal-trump-era-religious-protection-for-students/

OBSERVATION – A component of the culture war feeding the growing CW2 scenario – once again being used to divide Americans and attack the free exercise of religious thoughts and speech. The regime has already made it clear through its weaponized alphabet departments that religion, and Christianity in specific, are enemies of the country to the level of being domestic terrorists. Removing these protections will also expose Christians to the whims of the Marxists in the education system who currently are fanning the flames of forcing radical transgenderism on society and encouraging legal action against those who oppose it (once again, largely Christians).

**
Democratic lawmakers are seeking further restrictions on ammunition sales after submitting the “Stop Online Ammunition Sales Act of 2023” in late January, which would block online sales of ammunition and issue new guidance for brick-and-mortar stores.

The bill, H.R. 584, would require ammunition dealers to receive updated licenses and confirm the identity of any customer who attempts to purchase ammunition, further saying that online sales will be blocked and bulk purchases must be reported. Democratic New Jersey Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, a lawmaker backed by Michael Bloomberg’s anti-gun group Everytown for Gun Safety, introduced the bill alongside 23 House Democrats who co-signed the legislation.

https://dailycaller.com/2023/02/22/dem-reps-ammunitions-sales-americans/

OBSERVATION – Ammo has been a kind of gray area for constitutional protection and efforts to limit access to it have grown substantially. Currently Kalifornia’s law leads the way but is facing a difficult defense in the courts. Control and reporting of ammunition sales is also another work around to the forbidden gun registry. You buy 5.56 ammo, it is safe to assume you have an AR-15 variant. Same for other calibers. This bill is unlikely to pass the House, but demonstrates the continued pressure by the anti-second amendment Marxists to disarm the country.

**
More on the culture war front of CW2. DoJ has charged 8 pro-life activitsts with FACE act violations. The two tier nature of govt law enforcement is reflected by a DoJ statement “that the escalation of enforcement of the FACE Act has partially been motivated by the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade. The Biden administration has made it a matter of urgency to find creative ways to circumvent and undermine the ruling via aggressive executive action against pro-life activists.”
Only one instance of pro-life violence and vandalism among the hundreds of attempted arson and physical threats – not to mention illegal protests outside of USSC justices home – has been advanced by the DoJ.

OBSERVATION – Marxist assults on American morals continues with this disgusting continued injustice against pro-life supporters. They continue to use it to divide the country.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The release of the hidden J6 videos is causing heads on the left to explode even as numerous clips showing uniformed and ununiformed police encouraging the actions – and more agent provocateurs throughout the crowds. The MSM is in scramble mode to keep these clips under wraps.

China –

Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles and acting Philippine Defense Secretary Carlito Galvez discussed the possibility of conducting joint patrols in the South China Sea (SCS).

OBSERVATION – China’s aggressiveness in the SCS, especially towards Philippine naval vessels is producing unintended consequences. Joint patrols would then force China to balance the aggressive actions with getting a bigger push back at sea – possibly a small ‘incident’. With those joint patrols China will have to recalculate its actions. Already China’s aggression towards Philippines has instigated talks between the Philippines and the US for joint patrols as well.

**
Chinese and Indian officials met in Beijing to discuss disengagement proposals for remaining friction points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh.

OBSERVATION - After the stone age brawl a couple years ago, tensions have remained high along the border as both sided have built up their forces. There has been very little if any indications of compromise offered by either side, so these talks may well be unproductive exept for keeping lines of communications open.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Tomorrow is the one year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.

You can refresh yourselves to the build up to that start as it was tracked here in TM at the following link.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=1#1

**
Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has shared an image of dozens of fighters who have been killed, blaming the Russian Ministry of Defence of deliberately depriving them of ammunition.

OBSERVATION – Wagner et al, has lost much putin’s support they had several months ago when they promised to capture Bahkmut. Instead, Wagner had thousands of dead and more wounded in the fight. The MoD now has the upper hand in their knife fight. However, they could lose their advantage should the offensive go bad (as it already appears to be).

Tomorrow is the one year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has been told to expect Russian missile attacks to coincide with the anniversary of the invasion, its intelligence service says.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian activity appears to be trying to increase prior to the one year anniversary of the war. More Russian assaults on Bakhmut’s northern flank. Reports that Russia has made more incremental gains there. However, Russia is fast losing its artillery edge in the sector with reports from both sides indicating that there is near parity in the sector. Last spring Russia held a 10:1 advantage in the east. This parity is evidence that Ukraine’s deep attacks on ammo and artillery (particularly counterbattery fire) combined with poor Russian maintenance and operations, have taken a significant advantage away from them.

A series of explosions hit occupied Mariupol, about 80km from the front, is raising speculations that Ukraine has long-range missiles outside of its conventional striking range. HIMARS has a range of about 75km. Targets have been buildings housing Russian troops and according to Russian sources, the strikes have been pretty effective.

British Intelligence believes that Russian Forces are preparing to step up the offensive near Vuhledar within the next 48 hours. Analysts noting an increase in artillery preparation of the battlefield against Ukraine positions. .
Also fresh RUMINT that Russia may be trying to set up a false flag event in southern Belarus.

Considerable amount of discussions regarding Moldova and possible expansion of the conflict there – See Moldova/Transnistria below for more.

OUTLOOK –
There is an expectation that Russia will do something big tomorrow. Just what is still up for speculation. Several valid options are
1. Another missile barrage, perhaps targeting more Ukrainian cultural targets in addition to power grid related.
2. Deployment of what ever reserve forces that they have on the Bakhmut fight as well as in the Kreminna-Svatove line. Potential renewed assault on Vuhledar.

However, all indicators point to the Russians attempting to attack across a wide front, rather than concentrating their forces towards key objectives. Just repeating the errors that lead to their disastrous adventures in n Ukraine. I really don’t see any conventional rabbits being pulled out of the hat.
Now, the situation in Moldova and potentially Belarus are wild cards. I think something happening is Moldova is a stronger possibility. The bigger question is why? As noted above, lose-lose for Russia.

Finally, Russian failure to really get anything going on the ground over the nearly month of their current offensive has given Ukraine time to prepare for their counter offensive. Western arms and equipment are now arriving in country and considerable numbers of Ukrainians are receiving training on them.

One other thing is that it appears that Ukraine has built or obtained a new, longer range weapon system. There have been Russian reports for several days now of strong attacks way behind Russian lines. Not good news for Russian who has been facing increasing attacks on troop billets/concentrations thanks in part to these new weapons and timely reporting - likely from Ukrainians in occupied territories.

Moldova/Transnistria - ALERT MODE

(Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin revoked on Tuesday a 2012 decree that in part underpinned Moldova’s sovereignty in resolving the future of the Transdniestria region - a Moscow-backed separatist region which borders Ukraine and where Russia keeps troops. The decree, which included a Moldova component, outlined Russia’s foreign policy 11 years ago which assumed Moscow’s closer relations with the European Union and the United States.

The Russian Ministry of Defense released a statement claiming that Ukrainian and “Azov” Forces are preparing to stage “False Provocations” from the Breakaway-Region of Transnistria in order to provide justification for an Invasion of Moldova.

Russian Sources are now claiming that a large number of Ukrainian Combat Forces are being moved towards the Border with Moldova and Transnistria and that they alongside Moldovan Security Forces are planning to Invade the Breakaway Region sometime between February 24th and 28th. (Consider RUMINT)

OBSERVATION – This rhetoric has increased significantly since recent revelations that Russia was planning on capturing the main airport in Moldova to facilitate troop movements into the region and over all higher tensions. NATO airborne intelligence assets have been noted orbiting the Romanian/Moldova border keeping eyes on the situation.
Any move by Russia would be a lose-lose scenario for them as their forces in the region are overstretched. VDV forces would be used for the airport seizure attempt – except that they’ve bleed them way down, so their quality of the soldiers is not as good as a year ago and most of their VDV are currently tied down in the operations in eastern Ukraine.

It is estimated that about 1500 Russian troops currently occupy Transnistria and they are not the best equipped / trained at the moment. Expansion of conflict there could tie down Ukrainian forces needed for their offensive

A reminder – Transnistria was part of the strategic goal for Russia at the start of the war. To produce a ‘land bridge’ from Russia thru southern Ukraine to Transistria – essentially sealing off the Black Sea from Ukrainian use.

Any Russian incursions into the rest of Moldova may energize action by Romania to step in.

Belarus -

RUMINT. Russian military convoys without identification marks have been spotted in the direction of the Chernihiv region with men dressed in pixel camo similar to the uniform of Ukraine’s Armed Forces - operational Command North

OBSERVATION – Belarus has repeatedly stated that the only way they’d get involved on the ground in Ukraine is if Ukraine (or NATO country) invaded it. This could well be a false flag operation in the making to drag Belarus kicking and screaming into the war.

Other sources of resistance from within Belarus still report that conventional Russian and Belarus forces are in training mode away from border regions.

.
Europe / NATO General –

NATO’s chief said that the military alliance has seen “some signs” that China may be planning to support Russia in its war in Ukraine, and strongly urged Beijing to desist from what would be a violation of international law.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also told The Associated Press in an interview that the alliance, while not a party to the war, will support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”

Asked whether NATO has any indication that China might be ready to provide arms or other support to Russia’s war, Stoltenberg said:
“We have seen some signs that they may be planning for that and of course NATO allies, the United States, have been warning against it because this is something that should not happen. China should not support Russia’s illegal war.” — Associated Press

OBSERVATION – I don’t see any significant change to Russian capablilties in the short term – other than propaganda. Longer term results may help Russia, but indebt them to China in a big way. China has spent the past year plus developing work-arounds to any sanctions imposed by the west, primarly if Taiwan is invaded, but those actions will also work for any sanctions placed on it for military support given to Russia.

Israel –

Following Israeli raids in Nablus to preemptively strike terrorists there, at least six rockets have been launched from the Gaza Strip towards the Israeli city of Ashkelon.
In response to the rockets fired from Gaza, IAF fighter jets struck both a weapons manufacturing site and military compound belonging to the Hamas Terrorist Organization, located in central and northern Gaza.

The timing of Wednesday’s IDF operation in Nablus, in which 10 Palestinians were killed and dozens injured, could not have been any worse for the Palestinian Authority, whose leaders were quick to condemn Israel and call for international protection to the Palestinians. The military raid is seen by many Palestinians as yet another sign of the PA leadership’s deceptive policies and double talk.

OBSERVATION – The unrest in the west bank/Nablus reflect the power struggle between Hamas and the PA. At one time more ‘moderate’ because the PA was able to get Israeli jobs for the masses, corruption and disintegrating tolerance of Israel has put them in a fix. The rise of Iran in the mix – contributing money, supplies and radical ideas – is beginning to tip the population toward Hamas and related jihadic elements. There West bank is facing an election in the upcoming months that could see the total switch of leadership and the creation of a new “gaza” state in the west bank. Israel is doing what it can to eliminate as much of that new leadership now before that happens.

**
Israel’s new government under Benjamin Netanyahu has stepped up US-backed talks with Saudi Arabia on forging stronger military and intelligence ties, Bloomberg reported late last week. The talks are part of an effort to forge a NATO-style anti-Iran alliance in the region between Israel and Washington’s Gulf Arab allies.

OBSERVATION – Alliance against Iran. Even Saudi Arabia sees the cost benefits of joining with Israel on this.

Saudi Arabia –

See Israel above on security agreement negotiations.

Misc of Note –

There was a fire at a uranium compound at the Y-12 National Security Complex in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. It was brought under control with reportedly no release of uranium.

**
A rare Blizzard Warning has been issued for parts of Southern California as the next storm system is expected to crash ashore on Thursday.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, this is the first such warning for the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties since 1989. The forecast calls for upwards of 5 feet of snow and wind gusts of more than 55 mph in the warned area.

“Your eyes are not deceiving you, said FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin. “All the way down in Southern California, that orange box is a Blizzard Warning that’s in effect for Friday morning until 4 p.m. on Saturday afternoon.”
Though the snow will be most concentrated in the mountains, David Sweet, a meteorologist at the weather service’s Oxnard office said, heavy precipitation and winds will span the region, especially Saturday when the “cold core” of the storm will center on Los Angeles.

“It’s going to be a wild and woolly kind of day — the lightning, the thunder, the hail, the graupel,” he said, referring to a type of frozen crystal that can look like snowflakes. “No one is going to be spared.”

OBSERVATION – Welcome to my world . . . .
Wild weather across the country.

Globalism / Great Reset –

President Biden on Thursday nominated Ajay Banga, the former CEO of Mastercard, to be president of the World Bank with an eye towards focusing on climate at the international agency. Banga is listed as a representing Mastercard as a ‘stockholder’ at recent Davos meetings.

OBSERVATION – The WEF has its moles throughout the system, just like they bragged about a few months ago. They are enabled by people like biden.

Economy –

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre says the next Fed Chair will be hired based on how diverse they are, not strictly on their experience with monetary policy.

OBSERVATION - Well that is reassuring, put the least incompetent nutjob in the position that holds the trigger to destroy the national economy. Sleep well.
Oh, the nominee has to go through that nasty senate confirmation hearing.

**
The Q4 GDP was revised lower on weaker consumer spending, revised downward to 1.4%. With the revision of Personal Consumption, real GDP was revised downward to 2.7% annualized QoQ.

OBSERVATION – How much playing with the numbers did the regime have to do to limit the downward correction in the GDP numbers?

Invasion of Illegals –

Illegals pushing thru the US into Canada is causing the neighbors to the north all kinds of issues and are calling on the US to stop the movements.

Biden / Harris watch –

Harris had to seek moderator help in getting an audience to applaud during a recent speech.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Considerable number of pundits giving their two bits on the call for a national divorce.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Liberal heads continue to explode as previously unseen J6 video footage continues to be released.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

A division of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation indicated in a recent study that physical attacks on the U.S. power grid spiked by 71% in 2022 over the previous year, reported the Wall Street Journal.

There were at least 108 human-related events reported during the first eight months of 2022, compared with 99 in 2021. WSOC-TV reported that by year end, there were 163 reported incidents of physical attack, vandalism, suspicious activity, or sabotage on the U.S. grid.

According to the grid oversight body’s Electricity Information Sharing and Analysis Center division, vandalism, ballistic damage, and intrusion drove the increase.

OBSERVATION – Percentages can be tricky, that is why I posted the reported numbers to see just how they pan out, to filter out my confirmation bias. There have been some troubling attacks recently on substations, and that trend needs to be monitored. However, from a terrorist standpoint, other than displaying the weakness in our system, the increase appears to be more crime related than terror.

China –

China urges Russia, Ukraine to resume talks, reach ‘peaceful settlement’. They offered a 12 point “plan” that is straight up a bunch of fluff. This ‘plan’ may well be a fig leaf attempt to deflect from the reported plans to sell critical items to Russia. Focus being on “dual purpose” items like helicopter drones that can be adapted to drop bombs.
Also rumors Russia is trying to obtain 100 loitering drones like those from Iran.

**
The U.S. plans to deploy between 100 and 200 troops to Taiwan in the coming months, up from roughly 30 there a year ago. The planned increase would be the largest deployment of forces in decades by the U.S. on Taiwan, according to US officials - WSJ

OBSERVATION – A ‘trip wire’ action.

**
Taiwan is scheduled to rotated a mechanized battalion task force to the US for training and evaluation of tactics that could be employed against any Chinese invasion. This is the largest deployment by Taiwan to the US.

**
37 PLA aircraft and 6 PLAN vessels intruded into the Taiwan defense zone.

OBSERVATION – This is nearly a daily activity by China to try to wear down the readiness of Taiwan. This count from yesterday was much higher than previous. Increasing numbers of planes and ships involved are precursors of an eventual operation of some kind.

North/South Korea –

North Korea has stated tonight, “If the U.S. continues its Hostile Practices against the Country, it will be considered a Declaration of War”, this comes after Table-Top Nuclear Exercises were reported between the U.S. and South Korea earlier today.

OBSERVATION – The war is still technically a war, no peace treaty has ever been signed and approved.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

One year ago Russia invaded Ukraine and thus begun one of the nastiest conflicts in my life time. After initially achieving gains, the Russian effort bogged down due to Ukraine mud, abysmally poor logistical support and a very stout defense put up by Ukraine. Since then Ukraine has recovered over half the territory initially lost, while Russian army has turned into a rag-tag bunch of mostly unwilling conscripts being force mindlessly into the meat grinder Ukrainian defense.

You can refresh yourselves to the build up to that start as it was tracked here in TM at the following link.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=1#1

NUCLEAR THREATS –
United States says that there is “no evidence” Russia is changing its nuclear posture despite Russia suspending New START Treaty.

Logistics –
The U.S. and Germany have warned China not to deliver weapons to Russia. According to information obtained by DER SPIEGEL, however, Beijing and Moscow are said to be negotiating the purchase of 100 strike drones, which could be delivered as soon as April. These drones can carry a warhead of up to 50 KG.

Constructed by Chinese drone manufacturer Xi’an Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology, Bingo has reportedly agreed to manufacture and test 100 ZT-180 prototype drones before delivering them to the Russian Defense Ministry by April 2023.

Sources believe that the design of the unmanned aerial vehicle could be similar to that of Iran’s Shaheed 136 kamikaze drone.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

RUMINT –
Russia had been anticipated to try something to get their offensive up and moving better – but nothing has hit the radar screen yet.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia continues to focus on the seizure of Bahkmut, making incremental gains on the east and south overnight. Scattered artillery all along the LOC.

OUTLOOK –
Russia is continuing the same old slog in the east. Weather conditions are becoming warmer, restarting the infamous Ukrainian mud and making Russia’s offensive even harder to execute. Russia is simply running out of time before things gumbo up again and Ukraine is gaining time to bring the new western weapon systems on line.

Fighting continues to be centered around Bahkmut – with Russia continuing to make marginal gains. They apparently want to capture the town rather than bypass and isolate it. As a result they are expending tremendous resources.

There are numerous looks backs over the past year on the course of the war, I’ll leave it to them. One deciding factor has been the development and success of Ukraine’s targeting of Russian supply depots. Early in the war, Russia followed its basic war plan of not enough supply trucks to keep forward units supplied with fuel and ammo. This contributed to the bogging down of the invasion all across the board as Ukraine quickly caught on to interdicting these convoys with artillery and TM-2 drones. Remember the famous huge long convoy that was enroute to supply forces near Kyiv and was being eaten alive by Ukraine forces?

Russia then worked place stockpiles closer to the front. However, Ukraine quickly again and focused fire to destroy these dumps. Russia moved them out of artillery range – just in time for the HIMARS to come on line and once again – boom. Now they have pushed these stockpiles even further back and once again are facing a shortfall from not having enough trucks to haul the supplies forward without being interdicted.

A significant part of Ukraine’s successful interdiction of Russian supplies is their adaptation of US fire controls and excellent actionable intelligence from Ukrainian Partisans. Russia has attempted to interdict Ukrainian supply lines, but with far, far less success. This is in part to the burdensome chain of command that fire control missions have to slog thru to get approved. By the time they are approved and the fire orders reach the batteries, the target is gone (but the battery is not informed of that). Add to it that the intelligence is not as accurate at that obtained by Ukraine.

Early on, the waste of artillery fire by Russia wasn’t so terrible as they held a 10:1 and greater advantage in tubes. As the fight as progressed, Russian losses of ammo, artillery pieces and gunners has reduced this advantage to near parity. The case in point being the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut. Russia technically has the Ukraine forces encircled – controlling supply lines into the city via artillery coverage. Yet Ukrainian forces seem to be well resupplied to continue the defense. Russian artillery dedicated to massive, planned, concentration of fire in support of the ground offensive has little left over for timely interdiction of supplies and the associated slow response times.

Moldova/Transnistria - ALERT MODE

The US Government has told i that it is “deeply concerned” by reports of a Kremlin-backed coup to overthrow the Government of Moldova. The message from Washington comes as fears grow that Putin is plotting to take the capital city and use its airport to open a western front the war in Ukraine.

“The United States firmly supports Moldova’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” a US State Department spokesperson reported. “We are deeply concerned by reports of a plot by Russia to destabilize Moldova’s democratically elected government. Russia has a long history of malign influence, both in Moldova and the region and we have worked closely with Moldova to build its political resilience and counter longer-term efforts by Russia to undermine Moldova’s democratic institutions.”

Tensions in the Moldovan capital of Chisinau are mounting after Putin revoked on a 2012 decree that underpinned the nation’s sovereignty on Tuesday.

OBSERVATION – Tensions remain high, though I’m relatively certain that at this stage things will not be going sideways any time soon.

**
The authorities of Moldova have been ready to sabotage the runway of Chisinau International Airport since the first days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The plan, meant to curb a potential invasion of Moldova by Russia, was revealed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Nicu Popescu to the local channel Jurnal TV.

OBSERVATION – Moldova considers the Russian threat to be serious. Russia made it a strategic goal to create a land bridge all the way to Transnistria early on.

Belarus -

See Poland beefing up border defenses below.

**
“So far, as recent days have shown, neither from the territory of Poland, nor from the territory of Lithuania, let alone Ukraine, do we notice the concentration of troops in order to drag us into the war. We evaluate it positively.” - Lukashenko

OBSERVATION – Invasion by foreign troops is the tripwire Lukashenko has held to in order to stay out of committing Belarus troops to the Ukraine war. He appears to be saying there is no evidence of an impending invasion of Belarus.

Poland –

Poland’s minister of national defense: We have started a preventive expansion of security measures on the border with Russia & Belarus. This is part of our defense and deterrence strategy. The first fortifications are already being placed on the border with Kaliningrad.

Israel –

Oman opens airspace to civilian Israeli planes.

**
Considerable rioting in Gaza, Jenin and Samaria, making rocket attacks from Gaza a distinct possibility in the near future.
Earlier, Egypt conveyed a message to Gazan factions: “Israel will severely respond if any escalation blows in the West Bank “

OBSERVATION – More of the ongoing stife as Hamas tries to take leadership of the West Bank from the PA/Abbas.

Iran –

Analysts are trying to figure out what was happening in the city of Karaj, Iran, overnight following reports of several explosions east of the town. Air defense systems were activated and were firing on something. It is reported that there are facilities that produce Shahed-drones in this city.

OBSERVATION – Iran claims it was just a drill.

Economy –

On Friday, the January’s PCE report showed 0.6 percent month-over-month inflation while estimates called for just 0.4 percent. That’s the PCE’s largest increase since last June, mirroring inflationary spikes measured by the Consumer and Producer Price Indexes. Year-over-year, PCE inflation hit 5.4 percent, also beating the expected 5.0 percent. On both a monthly and annual basis, PCE showed accelerating inflation at the start of 2023.
What’s more, Friday’s PCE release revised December’s monthly read up from 0.3 percent to 0.4 percent. That is, inflation is ticking back up and accelerating quickly in the wrong direction.

As Bloomberg noted in its report on the latest inflation number, “the easing that was celebrated at the end of last year has largely been erased after revisions and the acceleration in January.” Their report also quoted Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester as saying there’s still a “need to keep raising rates” and the latest PCE read is “consistent with the fact that the Fed needs to do a little more on our policy rate to make sure that inflation is moving back down.”

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/spencerbrown/2023/02/24/hotter-than-expected-inflation-report-sends-stocks-sliding-n2619939

OBSERVATION – This is not good news and being released on Friday may cause more ripples when next week rolls around. This increased PCE is a harbinger of increasing inflation - meaning that the Fed may shift its thoughts yet again to larger rate increases rather than the smaller increases and slowdown they discussed a couple weeks ago. Rates are at their highest level since the financial crisis of 2007-2008 — Friday’s PCE report means that the chances of a so-called “soft landing” for the economy as it slows are dwindling.

Biden / Harris watch –

Press: “Are you planning on traveling to East Palestine?”

Biden: “At this moment not. I was, I did a whole video, I mean, uh, you know, the uh, what the hell? Zoom. All I can hear every time I think of Zoom is that song of my generation, ‘Who’s Zoomin’ Who?’”

CW2/Domestic violence –

NC House Speaker Tim Moore, his security and Rep. David Willis were involved in a car accident this evening, in which another car rammed into their vehicle several times on the interstate. Circumstances are under investigation.
Wake County District Attorney Lorrin Freeman and highway patrol told Axios that James Matthew Brogden of Goldsboro was arrested and charged with misdemeanors for the following: driving while impaired, resisting a public officer, injury to personal property, speeding to elude arrest, failure to heed blue lights and siren, hit and run, failure to reduce speed to avoid a collision and damage to property.

Wake County District Attorney Lorrin Freeman and highway patrol told Axios that James Matthew Brogden of Goldsboro was arrested and charged with misdemeanors for the following: driving while impaired, resisting a public officer, injury to personal property, speeding to elude arrest, failure to heed blue lights and siren, hit and run, failure to reduce speed to avoid a collision and damage to property.

OBSERVATION – Alcohol can remove restraint on an individual’s urges. Combined with the recent murders of two NJ(?) republican state representatives I am growing increasingly concerned over the potential that on a state / local level republicans are becoming targeted for violence.

**
MSNBC extremist contributor Jason Johnson declared Thursday that the Republican Party no longer exists and that it is now just a front for a terrorist organisation. Johnson made the comments during a discussion centered on the release of previously unseen footage from the January 6th Capitol incident.
House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s provided the unreleased security camera footage to Fox News host Tucker Carlson, immediately triggering the far left.
Johnson commented on the move, stating “I’m not being incendiary when I say this, I’ve been saying this for a long time… There is no Republican Party. They’re a dime store front for a terrorist organization.”

OBSERVATION - While this dude is just a bloviating wannabe, his comments pull back the curtain of thought from the Marxist left on their thoughts and ultimately their goals to try to eliminate the right. The MSM doesn’t just shill out its TV time for anyone/anything and is interconnected to the Marxist swamp as a propaganda mouthpiece. Most certainly his views reflect those of the leftist leadership of this country.

IN RELATED – I haven’t commented on this arrogant ignoramus with delusions of adequacy before, but it reflects the observation above. Joy Behar thinks residents of East Palestine got what they deserved because they voted overwhelmingly for Trump. Yes, she will be allowed to show up for work next week to have more sewage spill out of her mouth, but once again – she is reflecting the thoughts and desires of the hard left that is pulling the strings of media and govt.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

One year ago Russia invaded Ukraine and thus begun one of the nastiest conflicts in my life time.

You can refresh yourselves to the start of that war as it was tracked here in TM at the following link.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=1#1

The anniversary date came and went with Russia unable to tout any success in their current offensive – a very telling tale indeed.

Logistics –
- Iranian made Shahad 136 drones have been absent from the battlefield since Feb 13h, suggesting that Russia’s stockpile of the systems is gone. Russia is suspected on trying to obtain more from Iran. These drones have had a high rate of being shot down, but have served to locally overwhelm air defense systems, giving higher powered Russian ballistic and cruise missiles a better chance of hitting their targets.

Economic Impact –
- The US marked the anniversary of Ukraine war with sanctions against Russian banks, military industry, semiconductor access.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The majority of the fighting continues to be along the Donetsk-Kreminna line, again focused on Bahkmut, where Russian forces continue to eke out minor gains at a high cost of men and machines. Russian scattered artillery attacks all along the LOC from Kherson to Sumy Oblast.

OUTLOOK –
I can see no real changes in the current general stalemate in Ukraine. It is becoming more evident that Ukraine is executing an economy of force operation in the east (particularly Bahkmut) that is freeing up resources to train and fall in on modern, western tanks, APCs and other weapon systems – in order to have all put together for an offensive. The Russians appear to be losing the race to preempt that offensive and are frittering away its resources in ill-designed operations that in the long run will help Ukraine’s offensive.

Its been a while since a big Russian missile attack on Ukraine and lots of talk of increased Russian naval vessels with cruise missile launching capabilities being deployed in the Black Sea – an indicator of an impending attack. Monitoring the Russian AF strategic bomber nets to see if they activate and start sending out the formatted (they are encrypted) message for that component of an attack. My guess that Monday is the next window – as Russia has had a habit of doing such attacks on that day.

Moldova/Transnistria - ALERT MODE

Russia’s foreign ministry says that any actions threatening Russian peacekeepers in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria will be seen as an attack on Russia - TASS

OBSERVATION – Some of the dust appears to be settling from all the rhetoric this week. It seems to me that Russia was attempting to sow some seeds of misdirection and discontent here as well as rumored false flag operation against Belarus to drag them into the war.

.
Europe / NATO General –

The EU has adopted new sanctions against Russia. These include bans on exports of technology, imports of asphalt and synthetic rubber, provision of gas storage capacity to Russians The EU has also suspended the broadcasting licenses of RT Arabic and Sputnik Arabic

Israel –

Balance of power and operations is shifting as Russia draws closer to Iran for support in the war in Ukraine. Israel has had an under the table agreement to coordinate with Russia — which largely controls Syrian airspace — in order to carry out strikes on Iranian/Hezbollah targets. Now that Russia is moving to supply Iran with fighter jets to Iran as part of an expanding military cooperation effort that has seen Tehran ship growing quantities of weaponry to Moscow for use in the invasion of Ukraine, this balance with Israel is becoming upended.

This is trending two ways. First, Israel is gradually opening up to supplying Ukraine with weapon systems. Second, Israel is preparing for potential Russian attempts at preventing Israeli interdiction of Iranian shipments – raising the concern for a direct Israeli-Russian confrontation over Syria.

Iran –

Iran will likely send air defense systems to Syria, Iranian state television reported Friday, a move apparently meant to protect against Israeli airstrikes.
“Syria needs to rebuild its air defense network and requires precision bombs for its fighter planes,” the Iranian state broadcaster said, according to Reuters.
“It is very likely that we will witness the supply by Iran of radars and defense missiles, such as the 15 Khordad system, to reinforce Syria’s air defenses,” it added.

OBSERVATION – Syrian S300/400 systems have had only marginal success against Israeli bombing missions against Iranian/Hezbollah targets in Syria. Iran is seeking more support to protect its operations to prepare for an eventual attack on Israel. Iran is losing billions of dollars in destroyed arms, munitions and material annually to Israeli strikes and is desperate to find ways to mitigate that.

**
Iran released a video of the new Iranian cruise missile named Paveh with a reported range of 1650 km.

Syria -

See Iran potentially suppling ADA systems above.

Turkey -

Quick note on the current death toll from the quake. Numbers of dead now exceed 50,000 and are still climbing.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Minnesota is looking to ban all new use of natural gas. This move would cause residential users drastically increased utility bills and create a scenario were thousands could be endangered during winter storms. The globalist elites don’t care, just culling the herd of useless sheeple.

Economy –

Former Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin is among the authors of the white paper that examines the history of central bank efforts to create disinflation.
Despite the sentiments of many current Fed officials that they can manage a “soft landing” while tackling high prices, the paper says that is unlikely to be the case.

“We find no instance in which a central-[bank]induced disinflation occurred without a recession,” said the paper, co-authored by economists Stephen Cecchetti, Michael Feroli, Peter Hooper and Kermit Schoenholtz.
The paper was presented Friday morning during a monetary policy forum presented by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

“Simulations of our baseline model suggest that the Fed will need to tighten policy significantly further to achieve its inflation objective by the end of 2025,” the researchers said.

“Even assuming stable inflation expectations, our analysis casts doubt on the ability of the Fed to engineer a soft landing in which inflation returns to the 2 percent target by the end of 2025 without a mild recession,” they added.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2023/02/fed-cant-tame-inflation-without-significantly-more-hikes-that-will-cause-a-recession-paper-says/

OBSERVATION - NOTE, 2025 given before this group anticipates anti-inflation ‘goals’ are reached and the Fed can loosen its policies. That is two+ years of back breaking high interest rates that may well do more damage to the economy than inflation.

Biden / Harris watch –

Observers note that biden has spent about 40% of his term in office on vacation.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Seattle has agreed to settle a lawsuit with business owners and residents over the city’s 2020 handling of the so-called autonomous zone protests originally dubbed the Capitol Hill Occupied Protest (CHOP).
Businesses and residents of Seattle’s Capitol Hill “will now be compensated for the City’s mishandling of CHOP that resulted in a significant increase in crime and even loss of life,” attorney Angelo Calfo said in a statement, according to The Seattle Times.

More than a dozen business owners and residents in the Capitol Hill neighborhood filed a lawsuit against the city over the city’s policies that “effectively authorized the actions of the CHOP participants,” according to the suit.

The city announced the settlement totals $3.65 million, which includes $600,000 in penalties for the deletion of thousands of texts by city leaders, including former Mayor Jenny Durkan, The Seattle Times reported.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/seattle-to-pay-millions-to-settle-lawsuit-over-damages-from-george-floyd-inspired-autonomous-zone-protests

OBSERVATION – The ‘chop’ area is still under pressure as an ‘autonomous’ zone with residual high crime and Antifa issues. The question is – will this be enough to cause businesses to return to the district or are they going to stay away due to residual crime at record levels.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The left continues to be in meltdown over the release of J6 videos to Tucker Carleson, but those on the right are upset as well, viewing Carleson as a choke point in getting these videos to the public and that he has his own motives in selective review of the converage.

I agree, get them out to more conservative outlets and don’t bottle them up via just one source that can be controlled/influenced by the MSM. (Yes, I did link Fox to the MSM)

Russia -

WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Indicators suggest that Russia may launch another ballastic/cruise missile attack in the near future

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The intensity of fighting in the Bakhmut region – particularly on the north – exploded overnight with fierce fighting that some observers owe to Russia possibly committing reserve forces to force a breakthrough. Further north, Russia also appears to be trying to exploit recent gains to push northward out of the Soldare region toward Silversk.

Along the southern front, more reports that Russia is committing more reinforcements in its fight for Vuhledar. Overnight battles though indicate that Russia hasn’t learned anything, throwing armor across wide open fields and straight into minefields where these charges fall flat on their faces and infantry running to get out of the kill zone.

OUTLOOK –
Fog of war surrounding the fighting around Bahkmut has me concerned about the ability of Ukraine to maintain its defenses there much longer. I’m seeing some OSINT analysts noting Russian gains on the north with others saying these gains are a major breakout in the development. Who to believe. Russian milbloggers/propagandists that some OSINT folks monitor would be inclined to believe that the Russian hordes are pouring into the Bakhmut region and the battle is lost. Others that take a more conservative view – and IMHO a broader based intel view – note gains have been made and are watching to see Ukraine’s response to the action.

I think that Ukraine will be forced to withdraw from Bakhmut to prepared fall back positions as they have in the past. Ukraine will hold positions long enough to bleed Russia of men and resources making it more difficult for them to press past the objective.

I also think that Russia has thrown some of its reserve forces into the fight to regain face lost in that they couldn’t claim a major victory on the anniversary of the start of the war. Russia also sees that it is running out of time and that Ukraine isn’t being sucked into a larger defensive battle instead of preparing for an offensive. The current Russian offensive is a trifle compared to the last two by Ukraine that recaptured tens of thousands of square Kms of land in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.

OSINT analysts are evaluating a new tactical structure of the Russian forces roughly called an ‘assault battle group’. This is a major variation from the battalion task groups (BTG) from the start of the war. These new units are far more leg infantry oriented, with very little armor/tanks support. This is due to the extensive loss of armor during the course of the war. It is believed to be roughly based in part on Wagner Group organizations in their fight in Bakhmut.
By light, only a few tanks and a small number of APCs are assigned (many infantry riding on top) and mostly infantry. Some towed artillery and mortars.

This battalion tends to engage in company and smaller sized attacks. Lack of leadership has gotten worse, with officers being forced to micromanage the fight – making the unit very inflexible to battlefield changes.
Most of the infantry is composed of poorly trained and equipped conscripts. Medical support is crude, with wounded location noted for following medical teams (that often don’t get there).

If you guessed, I don’t think this adaptation is going to work very well for Russia either. It relies on human wave style attacks and very little tactics.

Final OUTLOOK note - indicators that Russia may be preparing for another ballistic / cruise missile barrage in the coming days. Naval and strategic bomber nets have been increasingly active - in the past this has served as precursors to strikes.

Misc of Note –

EPA has halted movement of contaminated water and soil from the East Palestine train wreck site, citing that the volumes are overwhelming authorized sites and indicating that EPA wants a better plan to address the goals and extent of this early clear-up effort. Pretty lame on the EPAs part. Also being noted that both the railroad and the EPA seem to be tiptoeing around the whole dioxin issue - the elephant in the room.

Black Swans

The WHO has been shouting warnings that the H5N1 strain of the bird flu that has been hammering poultry flocks around the world for the past couple years was going to make the jump to humans. Now the WHO is sounding the alarm over a string of human infections in Cambodia, indicating that the virus has made the jump.

Cambodia’s health ministry said the girl’s father had also tested positive for the H5N1 bird fly and 11 others had been tested. The girl who died had fallen ill a week earlier with a high fever, cough, and sore throat. She was from the rural Prey Veng province.

On Thursday, Health Minister Mam Bunheng said it was the first known human infection of the H5N1 strain in Cambodia since 2014, according to a report by the BBC.

The girl had been taken from her village to the children’s hospital in the capital Phnom Penh – but died shortly after her diagnosis. Officials have collected samples of several dead birds from near the girl’s village. Health officials have also warned residents against touching dead or sick birds.

WHO has recorded eight cases of human H5N1 infections since 2021, including in China, India, Spain, the UK, and the US.

OBSERVATION – There is still a lot of smoke surrounding the reported death and illnesses claimed to have been caused by the strain in Cambodia. Since the ebbing of the wuhan plandemic, the WHO and its cohorts, have been warning about a new, impending pandemic. It is too early to say if the virus has mutated enough to make the jump to humans or not, but in spite of the propaganda and fear mongering from the WHO, this could represent a real natural (or at worst, engineered) threat. I noted that the wuhan was spotted early in some of these obscure like report before exploding on the scene.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Security Alert: U.S. Embassy – State of Disaster Declared Over Ongoing Energy Crisis of “Load-shedding” – Controlled Electricity Outages

The government of South Africa has declared a “State of Disaster” in response to ongoing power shortages. The country’s energy crisis includes sustained load-shedding (controlled rolling blackouts), at varying intervals and is expected to extend beyond 2023. Load-shedding currently results in localized power outages of up to six hours or more per day throughout the country. These planned electricity outages negatively affect private residences, businesses, municipal lighting, traffic lights, and hotels. Rolling blackouts can also impact water availability and safety, internet connectivity, cell phone network coverage, fuel pumps (and therefore fuel availability), residential security features, and the food supply. Additionally, power outages have the potential to increase crime; for example, traffic jams when lights are out provide opportunities for smash and grab crime, and residences can be targeted when lights are out and security systems are not functioning. Further, ongoing conditions have led to an increase in protests and demonstrations, and in some cases civil unrest, throughout the country.

OBSERVATION – S Africa used to be a first world country with abundant power for all citizens. Now they cannot provide clean water and now power. Food supplies are endangered as the predominantly white farmers are gradually leaving/being forced off their farms and the ‘locals’ take them over, with basically stone age farming practices. This is a picture of the future the WEF/GGR have for the world as a means of culling the sheeple.

Also concerning is the drift of the country into closer ties with Russia and China. May be trying for a parasitical relationship, but it will only go one way - towards the Russian/China alliance.

Wuhan virus –

WSJ - The shift by the Energy Department, which previously was undecided on how the virus emerged, is noted in an update to a 2021 document by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines’s office.

The new report highlights how different parts of the intelligence community have arrived at disparate judgments about the pandemic’s origin. The Energy Department now joins the Federal Bureau of Investigation in saying the virus likely spread via a mishap at a Chinese laboratory. Four other agencies, along with a national intelligence panel, still judge that it was likely the result of a natural transmission, and two are undecided.

The Energy Department’s conclusion is the result of new intelligence and is significant because the agency has considerable scientific expertise and oversees a network of U.S. national laboratories, some of which conduct advanced biological research.

OBSERVATION – WTH does the Energy Dept have ANYTHING to do with biological warfare to BEGIN WITH. If they are running biolabs, then we have a serious amount of mission creep and wasted money.

Economy –

Retail fertilizer prices have dropped 17% so far in 2023 and are expected to fall further. The spot Tampa anhydrous ammonia contract settled at $590 per metric ton, a 25% drop from last week and the lowest price since July 2021. (FO)

OBSERVATION – This is good news as long as supply chains/source hold.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Washington State Democrats proposed House Bill 1333 to establish a new commission, made up of racial groups, the FBI, state lawmakers, the ACLU, and the Anti-Defamation League, to pass judgment on the ideas of people, which they perceive to be disinformation and misinformation. Washington State’s far-Left Attorney General Bob Ferguson would oversee the proposed commission.
From a hearing on the bill, it is reported that “Under Washington state law, residents will now be classified as domestic terrorists if they protest school board meetings, Drag Queen Story Hour Events, and the outcome of elections, according to the examples provided.” - Katie Daviscourt

OBSERVATION – This is the growth of tyranny, pure and simple. Designed to increase the gap between the Red and blue. Eastern Washington state is continuing to push for separation and creation of its own state – Liberty. This tyranny will likely drive that move even harder.

POLITICAL FRONT –

A California-based law firm has accused Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, Runbeck Election Services, and a slew of other election officials, mayors, judges, city councilman, and county supervisors in the state of receiving bribes from the Sinaloa cartel.

During a Thursday hearing before the Senate Elections and Municipal Oversight & Elections Joint Committee, the principal investigator for Harris/Thaler Law Corporation, Jacqueline Breger, presented their shocking findings, detailing how a money-laundering investigation in the midwest revealed alleged corruption in Arizona.

https://thepostmillennial.com/katie-hobbs-accused-of-receiving-sinaloa-cartel-bribes?utm_campaign=64487

OBSERVATION – Corruption always seems to be centered on democrats for some reason, shocked, shocked I tell you.
What is critical is that the cartels have deepened their hooks into southwestern states and what appears is that Arizona is in route to becoming a narko-terrorist enclave.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fierce fighting overnight on the northern flank of the Bahkmut pocket as Russian forces broke through Ukraine defenses and pushed westward. It has been reported that Ukraine forces launched a combined arms counter-attack SE along the M-03 HWY axis. This would effectively pinch off the Russian penetration. Much of this is still unconfirmed, mostly to the extent of each actions. There are other unconfirmed reports that Ukraine is beginning to stage forces for a withdrawal from the city.

Other unconfirmed reports that Russians have committed their most combat-ready forces to Bakhmut and that there are many Wagner Group convict personnel around the city.

Shahed-136 drones attempted to attack targets across Ukraine; they are reportedly flying extremely low in order to not be detected by radar. Numbers were not that significant in comparison to other attacks and they were not followed up by missile attacks.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Unconfirmed rumors of troop build ups in the Vasylivka area. No clarity if for defense of offense.

Crimean front ———
Reports of an explosion near the Crimean town of Sudak. A nasty odor is also smelled. Huge.

OUTLOOK –
With the stepped up fighting around Bakhmut, and the apparent commitment of a Russian reserve to the fight, Ukraine is having to evaluate its next moves at a strategic level. Withdrawl or commit forces to counter attack/reinforce the town which takes away from offensive planning.

Again, fog of war is thick and the current tactical situation is hard for me to see. Ukraine has caused high casualties to the Russian forces in their six plus month fight for the town, at high Ukraine losses as well. At present, I can’t see Ukraine holding for more than a week and executing an orderly withdrawal to deeper defensive positions where Russia will be forced to resume the same meat grinder operations they faced with Bahkmut.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Kremlin - the situation in Transnistria is not calm and is being stirred up by external forces.

Belarus -

Partisans from the “Pieramoha” (Victory) plan confirmed a successful special operation to blow up a rare Russian plane at the airfield in Machulishchy near Minsk. This is the most successful operation since the beginning of 2022. The plane was a Russian military A-50 AEW&C aircraft and according to the report the front and center parts of the aircraft, avionics and radar antenna were damaged. Russia has very few of these aircraft in service.

“Belarus is ready to mobilize 1.5 million people for the needs of the army in case of aggravation of the situation” - State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Alexander Volfovich

FYI Belarus has a population of about 9.4 million, less than half that military aged men.

Israel –

The west bank was on fire overnight as Israelis torched Palestinian houses and cars in Huwara. Dozens of Palestinian have been wounded and at least 1 killed. This comes after two Israelis were killed in a terrorist attack earlier today. Deputy Head of the political bureau of Hamas calls for Palestinians to go out and clash with Israeli forces and Israeli citizens in Hawara .

Israeli Security Forces have rushed 2 IDF Battalions and 4 Companies of Border Security to the West Bank in an attempt to quell the Unrest that appears to be spirally out of Control.

Israeli security forces are also still looking for the gunman.

OBSERVATION - Nasty situation overnight that appears to have been calmed down as I type. To say things are still tense is to understate it immensely. The terror attack was designed to provoke a response and to also justify rocket attacks from Gaza. Again, this is an outgrowth from Hamas-supported elements trying to show arabs in the West Bank who is stronger, them or the PA.

Iran –

Iran’s currency fell to a new record low on Sunday, plummeting to 600,000 rials to the dollar for the first time in history as the country’s economy continues to be roiled by nationwide anti-government protests and international sanctions.
Iranians’ purchasing power has been decimated by inflation, which reached an annual rate of 53.4% in January – up from 41.4% two years according to the country’s statistics center. The dire economic circumstances have wiped out the life savings of many and caused Iranians to form long lines at currency exchange offices in recent days in an effort to acquire increasingly scarce dollars.

OBSERVATION – Key source of discontent of the citizenry. The majority of Iran’s efforts are being directed towards military / terrorism support in the region. Leaves very little for the citizens.

Central / South America General-

Government authorities in El Salvador have locked up around 43K MS 13 and other gang members in what are being called mega-prisons. Once widely dubbed the “homicide capital of the world” - authorities in recent years thought they had it under control, but murders spiked over the past year.
This caused President Nayib Bukele to declared a state of emergency eight months ago, and police went ‘gloves off’ in attempting to clear the streets of gangs.

Civil rights advocates are decrying the massive lock ups, but the population is in supports, seeing the murder rate drop by something like 64%. Gangs in El Salvador have been problematic for decades, but the new response seems to be working. Honestly IMHO, you tat MS13 all over your body – you’ve chosen sides. To go one step more - start putting these criminals down for good for their crimes/murders.

Lesson for the US – as unrestrained crime is promoted by the Marxist in predominantly blue cities/states, there may become a similar call for a similar backlash. Don’t hold your breath that such a crackdown will occur since the left has coddled these thugs so far. However, spreading into red areas is another matter and may result in a civilian vigilante as well as govt response. Of course it would face immediate opposition by our leftist fed govt and private groups. Increasing CW2 tensions.

Globalism / Great Reset –

A Canadian Parliamentary committee is recommending lawmakers legalize euthanasia for sick and disabled children or those in Canada’s child welfare system. They think those whose deaths are what they consider “reasonably foreseeable” should be able to end their own lives.

In Canada now, the Special Joint Committee on Medical Assistance in Dying called for an alarming expansion of euthanasia (MAiD) in Canada to now include “mature minors.” Recommendation 19 in the report states:
That the Government of Canada establish a requirement that, where appropriate, the parents or guardians of a mature minor be consulted in the course of the assessment process for MAID, but that the will of a minor who is found to have the requisite decision-making capacity ultimately take priority.
Who determines what is “appropriate”? Government, of course. Parents or guardians may or may not be consulted in the euthanasia death of their child if he or she is deemed capable of decision-making.

https://harbingersdaily.com/downright-demonic-canadian-govt-calls-lawmakers-to-legalize-euthanasia-for-children-without-parental-consent/

OBSERVATION – Trial run in WEF Canada being developed. One overarching theme from the WEF confabs and elite is the desire to reduce the population of the earth. Most recently the desire to effectively half the population by 2035(?) as well as the desire to reduce the population eventually to 500 million (Georgia guideposts).

Also a recurring theme is isolating parents from any decision making over their children. This is parallel to the current war militant trannies are waging with their school/govt cohorts to block parental involvement in their children’s sexuality and to permit unfettered grooming/indoctrination. Ultimate stated goal of the globalists is to destroy the nuclear family and replace it with govt dependency.

Economy –

The U.S. economy will slip into a recession in the fourth quarter of 2023, and the Federal Reserve will respond with a rate cut in the following quarter, Deutsche Bank said in a new forecast.

The bank updated key economic projections in a research note last week after several developments on multiple fronts.

According to Deutsche Bank, the Fed will increase the terminal fed funds rate to 5.625 percent, up from its previous estimate of 5.1 percent. Economists cited persistent inflation pressures, better-than-expected economic data, and continued resilience in the labor market.

A new survey of economists by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) revealed that nearly half (48 percent) expect a recession later this year. Close to one-third expect an economic downturn in the April-to-June quarter, while a fifth believe it will start in the third quarter.
“Results of the February 2023 NABE Outlook survey continue to reflect significant divergence regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy,” NABE President Julia Coronado, president and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC, said in a statement. “Estimates of inflation-adjusted gross domestic product or real GDP, inflation, labor market indicators, and interest rates are all widely diffused, likely reflecting a variety of opinions on the fate of the economy—ranging from recession to soft landing to robust growth.”
In a series of tweets last week, David Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research, warned that the country is heading toward a recession and dismissed assertions of a “no landing” as a “hoax.”
“The ‘no landing’ narrative is the biggest hoax Wall Street economists have peddled since ‘global decoupling’ in 2008,” he wrote on Twitter. “Follow the leading indicators, not the Pied Pipers.”

https://www.theepochtimes.com/deutsche-bank-forecasts-us-recession-in-fourth-quarter-followed-by-rate-cut_5086188.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION – DB is in the business to make a profit and not go bankrupt, so it must breath in the realities of the global economy and not succumb to the hopium put forth by the Fed and US Treasury. I think DB is generous waiting until 4Q2023 for the ‘start’ of the recession.

Cyber Warfare –

NBC News reported that U.S. Marshals Service spokesperson Drew Wade said in a statement that on Feb. 17, authorities found “a ransomware and data exfiltration event affecting a stand-alone USMS system.”
“Shortly after that discovery, the USMS disconnected the affected system, and the Department of Justice initiated a forensic investigation,” Wade noted, according to CBS News.

“The affected system contains law enforcement sensitive information, including returns from legal process, administrative information, and personally identifiable information pertaining to subjects of USMS investigations, third parties, and certain USMS employees,” Wade noted, according to reports.
Senior department officials briefed on the breach ruled “that it constitutes a major incident,” Wade noted.

NBC News reported that a source said that the situation did not impact the database pertaining to the Witness Security Program, widely known as the witness protection program.

“The mission of the U.S. Marshals Service is to enforce federal laws and provide support to virtually all elements of the federal justice system by providing for the security of federal court facilities and the safety of judges and other court personnel; apprehending criminals; exercising custody of federal prisoners and providing for their security and transportation to correctional facilities; executing federal court orders; seizing assets gained by illegal means and providing for the custody, management, and disposal of forfeited assets; assuring the safety of endangered government witnesses and their families; and collecting and disbursing funds,” according to the agency’s website.
https://www.theblaze.com/news/us-marshals-service-ransomware-incident

OBSERVATION – Ransonware attacks are easy to avoid if one uses simple, common sense computer security. USMS has a wealth of criminal and other data as noted above and would afford the hacker a plethora of data that could then be remarketed on the dark web.

China –

Top US Army general in Pacific, Gen. Flynn just said the PLA army, rocket forces and support forces “are in dangerous positions.” Flynn, speaking at AEI w Kori Schake said he can’t reveal intel but: “They are rehearsing, they are exercising, they are experimenting.”

OBSERVATION – This would be part of the preparations necessary for an invasions of Taiwan. China has not executed a military operation of this magnitude or technical difficulty in the modern era, if ever. I suspect they are revisiting plans and assumptions in light of the colossal goat rope that Russia put together for Ukraine.

Now what is needing to be sorted out is the term “are in dangerous positions.”? Is he suggesting that the exercises are close to an actual attempt to execute an invasion?

Russia -

WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

On the heels of a mysterious drone strike on a $300 million A-50 AWACS aircraft parked in Belarus, command of Russia’s air defense was transferred abruptly from the ground forces to the aero-space forces, led by General Surovikin.

OBSERVATION – IIRC Surovikin was relieved of command of an army in Ukraine for incompetence, now in charge of space forces?

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday staked out Moscow’s position that it is open to peace negotiations but that Kiev and its Western allies must accept Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. “There are certain realities that have already become an internal factor. I mean the new territories. The constitution of the Russian Federation exists, and cannot be ignored. Russia will never be able to compromise on this, these are important realities,” Peskov told reporters. (FO)

Russian Personnel Issues –-
Various analysts are conjecturing that Russia will be out of trained conscripts necessary to fight the war by May of this year. Putin will be forced to look to remanning his forces at probably the worst time - during the anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive. another conscription ‘mobilization or forced recall of reserves would be in the cards. That would mean months before those new soldiers would be on the front - months to Ukraine’s favor.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting remains fierce around Bahkmut, with tactical status relatively unclear. It does appear that Russia has committed some reserves to the fight. However, thawing and rain have turned the region into a mud hole.

Ukraine launched some drones into Russia overnight, targeting oil/gas facilities. Russia was scrambling to try to deal with the PR aftermath.

Russian Territory –
Russian media report that around 2 a.m. on February 28 two drones with explosives attacked the Rosneft oil depot near the city of Tuapse. Distance to the territory controlled by Ukraine from there is +430km. Attack destroyed several oil storage tanks.

Also on the morning of February 28, some Russian media began to claim that an unknown flying object fell in the Adygea Republic of Russia. Photos released of the remains looks like parts of a jet engine. The Tu-141/143 are jet engine propelled.

Tuapse and Adygea are both located in Southern Russia near the northeastern coast of the Black Sea.

Another UAV crashed 100 meters from the Voskresensk gas compressor station in the Kolomensky district of the Moscow region. The drone was found in the village of Gubastovo

Airspace over St. Petersburg was temporally closed overnight. It is reported that an unknown aircraft violated the airspace. Planes on a flight to St. Petersburg are redirected.In a statement issued about an hour after flights had restarted, the Defense Ministry said it had been carrying out exercises that involved the dispatch of fighter jets in Russia’s western air space.

The airport has since been reopened with the following explaination -
“During the training, air defense forces worked on the detection, interception, and identification of targets, as well as interacting with emergency services and law enforcement agencies,” Russian news agencies cited the ministry as saying.

OUTLOOK –
Situation is still unclear in Bahkmut, but it does look like the Ukranian position is slipping faster. Temperatures are rising, bringing back the mud season and will stall attacks by both sides. That reality may be why Russia appears to have committed reserves to capture Bahkmut – knowing that Ukraine would be hard pressed to counter attack under mud conditions and buy time to prepare for defensive operations.

Ukraine’s long range drone attacks, though minor, definitely have the potential to throw Russia back on its heels a bit. The bad PR from such attacks alone will not help the internal propaganda machine. These overnight attacks will hone Ukraine’s capabilities and tactics in the future. Unlike Ukraine with a lot of air defense active all the time in a relatively concentrated country, Russia is wide open and largely undefended from what Ukraine is attempting. There are an abundance of significant targets in Russia – and it can’t defend them all.
Russian planners must now decide to allocate increasingly scarce ADA assets to cover these deeper and diverse targets, potentially reducing Ukranian coverage, OR just take the risk that Ukraine is unable to ramp up attacks and try to cover with propaganda coverage/misreporting events.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Ukrainian Southern Command has stated that they have now moved a significant force near the border with Moldova and Transnistria to defend against any attacks or provocations.

**
The Former Military Inspectorate of the Ministry of Defense of Moldova has said that the Armed Forces of Transnistria have rigged all Arms Depots within the Breakaway Region including the Cobasna Ammunition Depot with explosives so if any Military Operations begins it will cause Catastrophe Damage to parts of Moldova, Transnistria, and Ukraine.

The Cobasna Ammunition Depot itself is the Largest Arms Depot in Eastern Europe and contains up to 20,000 tons of Soviet-Era Arms and Munitions with reports done by the Moldavian Academy of Science stating that if the Depot was destroyed the explosion could be the size of the Atomic Bombs dropped on both Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

OBSERVATION – May well be an overstatement assuming that all the munitions went up at the same time. This is why munitions are bunkered – to physically isolate from each other to prevent such a catastrophic explosion.

**
Airline Wizzair, based in Hungary, has suspended all flights to and from Moldova - starting on 3/14/23 due to “security concerns.”

OBSERVATION – Hungary has been supportive of Russia over Ukraine for most of the war, but to suspend flights may indicate they have other info.

**
According to Moldova’s Intelligence Security Service (SIS), the government expelled two foreign agents who posed as tourists while collecting intelligence for an unnamed country. The agents were reportedly involved in a destabilization plot to overthrow the government in Chișinău.(FO)

Misc of Note –

Pfizer’s new RSV vaccine for older adults may trigger the potentially deadly Guillain-Barre syndrome, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has warned.
In clinical trials, two participants in their 60s developed the condition that can also cause crippling pain, muscle weakness and paralysis.
One of the patients recovered after three months, but the second took six months to return to normal. They were among 20,000 adults who got the experimental shot.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a winter respiratory bug that kills up to 10,000 adults over 65 in the US every year.

OBSERVATION – Pfizer putting together another death concoction. This may well be just the tip of the iceberg for adverse reactions.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Germany’s Minister of Economics, Robert Habeck, Green Party, is reported to be planning a ban of gas and oil heating – as early as 2024, according to the online BILD.

The proposed plan comes just after the EU Parliament voted to ban the registration of new fossil fuel cars beginning 2035.
According to Habeck’s draft legislation, homes and buildings would replace oil and gas heating systems with those operating with renewable energies, such as a heat pump.

The first step in Habeck’s plan is to be implemented as early as 2024. Only heating systems that produce heat from “at least 65 percent renewable energy” are to be installed. Existing gas and oil heating systems will likely be allowed to continue operation, but only for a limited time.

OBSERVATION – Remember, Germany has just come through chaos in trying to hold things together for this winter (and still has a couple months to go). Now they (WEF globalists) want to make matters worse by accelerating their ‘green’ programs.

Wuhan virus –

FBI Director Wray: “Origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident in Wuhan.”

OBSERVATION – DoE and now FBI indicating the source/cause of the wuhan plandemic being the Wuhan lab. Conspiracy ‘theories’ becoming truth.

**
With little fanfare, kalifornian dropped its wuhan state of emergency as well its CV-19 vaccine mandate for students.

Economy –

Mortgage rates moved higher again last week, pushing buyers back to the sidelines just as the spring housing market is supposed to be heating up.

Mortgage applications to purchase a home dropped 6% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Volume was 44% lower than the same week one year ago, and is now sitting at a 28-year low

Mortgage rates have moved half a percentage point higher in the past month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/01/mortgage-demand-falls-interest-rates-rise.html

OBSERVATION – as gauged by the housing market, our economy is in critical condition.

**
The Conference Board said its index of consumer sentiment fell to 102.9 in February from a downwardly revised January reading of 106.0, Economists had forecast an increase to 108.5 after the initial January reading of 107.1.

The measure of expectations for the year ahead fell sharply, plunging from a downwardly revised 76.0 in January to 69.7 in February.
Readings below 80 on the expectations barometer often signal a recession within the next year. Expectations have been below that level for 11 of the last 12 months.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2023/02/28/consumer-confidence-unexpectedly-falls-as-hope-crashes/

Biden / Harris watch –

During an event in Virginia Beach, Virginia, on Tuesday, President Biden recalled an experience he had when he was hospitalized in 1988 for brain aneurysms.

“When I was at Walter Reed all that time, after a couple of craniotomies, I was lying there. And I had a nurse named Pearl Nelson, military,” he began. “She’d come in and do things that I don’t think you learn in … nursing school. She’d whisper in my ear. I didn’t — couldn’t understand her, but she’d whisper, and she’d lean down. She’d actually breathe on me to make sure that I was — there was a connection, a human connection. “She even went home and brought back her pillow from her own bed,” he continued, because she “knew the one I had wasn’t comfortable.”

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The U.S. Air Force relieved six leaders, including two commanders, from their positions at a nuclear base in North Dakota “due to a loss of confidence.” Maj. Gen. Andrew J. Gebara relieved the commanders of the 5th Mission Support Group and 5th Logistics Readiness Squadron at Minot Air Force Base on Monday, according to an Air Force press release. Commanders relieved four other subordinate leaders. The six were relieved of leadership positions due to a loss of confidence in their ability to complete assigned duties, the press release stated.

OBSERVATION - This is concerning on several levels as such a large removal from a single center. If the removals were due to actual readiness issues, then our mid to upper level officer corps is badly corroded.

If OTOH, the removals were due to lack of support for the military’s woke policies - then things have gone from bad to worse.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot was thoroughly repulsed by voters last night, only able to get about 16% of the vote. Very little will change in Chicago as leadership will remain democrat.

China –

China continues to probe Taiwan with 19 Chinese air force combat planes entering the island’s air defense zone in the past 24 hours, part of what Taipei calls regular harassment by Beijing.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

**
Russia still coming to grips with yesterday’s drone attacks and facing a new round overnight.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fierce fighting continued around Bahmut with the Commander of Ukraine’s Land Forces and Eastern Operational Command reportedly ordering additional forces to reinforce the city. Additional thoughts under OUTLOOK below.

Action also increased near Donetsk overnight.

Russia reportedly launched about a half dozen Iranian drones against Ukraine, with no successful impacts.

Crimean front ———
Ukrainian Military Intelligence has stated today that they have observed a significant increase in Russian Warships leaving Port in the Black Sea with at least 17 Ships stated to currently be deployed. It was previously stated last week that Russia had deployed at least 8 Missile Carriers from Black Sea ports, however its believed that severe weather had forced them back to port over the weekend.

Russia’s Defense Ministry says 10 Ukranian drones that tried to target occupied Crimea were shot down overnight.

Russian Territory –
Explosions were reported near Yelsk Airbase in Krasnodar Krai, Russia.
Yelsk Airbase is located 140km from the frontline in Ukraine and one of the major bases supporting Russia’s war. A large fire also broke out that is still not yet controlled.

OUTLOOK –
Situation is still unclear in Bahkmut but apparently declining for Ukriane. Unconfirmed reports that reinforcements being sent to the city. Some analysts think this is a failed move that will severely damage the Ukraine army. Here is how they are wrong in a couple ways.

1. The fog of war doesn’t give them full view of the action.
2. Ukraine may have noted that commitment of Russian reserves into the fight. Some analysts note that the Russian offensive around Bahkmut is cresting as Russia is running out of resources to continue the fight. If so, then Ukraine force commitment would be wise.
3. These additional forces could also be deployed to assist and orderly withdrawal from the city

With all the talk about the Russian offensive, what have the actual results been?. I found the map at the following link that shows just how much territory Russia has been able to capture since the first of the year – from their offensive.

Map Russia gains this year.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqE_jbCacAAaIJ4?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

The biggest of these tiny blobs is the fight around Bahkmut. The Russian offensive has been essentially a nothing burger except a huge loss in men and equipment for Russia. Even if Bahkmut falls, Russia would have succeeded in very little. Gerasimov is running out of time to secure the Donbas by the end of March.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Anti-Government protests took place today in the Moldavian Capital of Chișinău with the aim being the full subsidization of winter energy bills and the for the Pro-Western Government not to get involved in the war in Ukraine.

People were blocking highway traffic north of Chisinau in Moldova. According to them, the police doesn’t allow the movement of buses to participate in an anti government demonstration in the city.

The protest in Chisinau was organized by a group calling itself Movement for the People and supported by members of Moldova’s Russia-friendly Shor Party, which holds six seats in the country’s 101-seat legislature.

**
The Armed Forces of Transnistria (Russian) has announced that beginning on March 1st they will be holding a 3-Month Military Exercise that will include any Military Aged Male who wishes to sign up; during the Exercise volunteers will be taught how to conduct “Peacekeeping Operations.”

OBSERVATIONS – Russia likely agitating the situation between Moldova and Transnistria as a means to divert some Ukranian and western attention from the war. The three month military ‘exercise’ is but an excuse to try to mobilize and incorporate into the Russian garrison as many locals as possible – goal to either cause trouble in country, or launch some degree of offensive against Ukraine. I think things are currently more on a general threat level and I don’t see Russian benefits in expanding the war.

Iran –

Iran may produce fissile material for a bomb ‘in about 12 days’ - says US senior official

OBSERVATION – The next big question is has Iran been able to construct a device to force the uranium to critical mass – creating a nuclear explosion? Their partnership with N Korea over the years plus new found friend in Russia may have given them the bits and pieces to design a device. After that comes miniaturizing the warheadhead so its missiles can deliver a bomb. A lot of steps, but Israel will have something to say about and may act sooner rather than later.

Turkey -

Erdogan reiterates May 14 as the election date. No changes after the deadliest earthquakes in Turkey’s history.

OBSERVATION – Erdogan may figure the quake will isolate a significant portion of the Anti Erdogan elements? IDK, but considering that his govt is catching heat over corruption that allowed contractors to build sub standard buildings that readily came down from the quake, the move is risky.

Misc of Note –

Western embassies including the United States and Australia have advised their citizens in the country to stock up on “several days worth” of food and water and be on high alert during extended blackouts sweeping the country.
South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa declared a national “state of disaster” on February 9 in response to the record electricity shortage, which has seen state-owned power company Eskom institute rolling blackouts

OBSERVATION – Things look to be going south fast in S Africa. Picture our urban centers if similar power outages occur.

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