Globalism / Great Reset –
Minnesota is looking to ban all new use of natural gas. This move would cause residential users drastically increased utility bills and create a scenario were thousands could be endangered during winter storms. The globalist elites don’t care, just culling the herd of useless sheeple.
Economy –
Former Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin is among the authors of the white paper that examines the history of central bank efforts to create disinflation.
Despite the sentiments of many current Fed officials that they can manage a “soft landing” while tackling high prices, the paper says that is unlikely to be the case.
“We find no instance in which a central-[bank]induced disinflation occurred without a recession,” said the paper, co-authored by economists Stephen Cecchetti, Michael Feroli, Peter Hooper and Kermit Schoenholtz.
The paper was presented Friday morning during a monetary policy forum presented by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
“Simulations of our baseline model suggest that the Fed will need to tighten policy significantly further to achieve its inflation objective by the end of 2025,” the researchers said.
“Even assuming stable inflation expectations, our analysis casts doubt on the ability of the Fed to engineer a soft landing in which inflation returns to the 2 percent target by the end of 2025 without a mild recession,” they added.
OBSERVATION - NOTE, 2025 given before this group anticipates anti-inflation ‘goals’ are reached and the Fed can loosen its policies. That is two+ years of back breaking high interest rates that may well do more damage to the economy than inflation.
Biden / Harris watch –
Observers note that biden has spent about 40% of his term in office on vacation.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Seattle has agreed to settle a lawsuit with business owners and residents over the city’s 2020 handling of the so-called autonomous zone protests originally dubbed the Capitol Hill Occupied Protest (CHOP).
Businesses and residents of Seattle’s Capitol Hill “will now be compensated for the City’s mishandling of CHOP that resulted in a significant increase in crime and even loss of life,” attorney Angelo Calfo said in a statement, according to The Seattle Times.
More than a dozen business owners and residents in the Capitol Hill neighborhood filed a lawsuit against the city over the city’s policies that “effectively authorized the actions of the CHOP participants,” according to the suit.
The city announced the settlement totals $3.65 million, which includes $600,000 in penalties for the deletion of thousands of texts by city leaders, including former Mayor Jenny Durkan, The Seattle Times reported.
OBSERVATION – The ‘chop’ area is still under pressure as an ‘autonomous’ zone with residual high crime and Antifa issues. The question is – will this be enough to cause businesses to return to the district or are they going to stay away due to residual crime at record levels.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The left continues to be in meltdown over the release of J6 videos to Tucker Carleson, but those on the right are upset as well, viewing Carleson as a choke point in getting these videos to the public and that he has his own motives in selective review of the converage.
I agree, get them out to more conservative outlets and don’t bottle them up via just one source that can be controlled/influenced by the MSM. (Yes, I did link Fox to the MSM)
Russia -
WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Indicators suggest that Russia may launch another ballastic/cruise missile attack in the near future
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The intensity of fighting in the Bakhmut region – particularly on the north – exploded overnight with fierce fighting that some observers owe to Russia possibly committing reserve forces to force a breakthrough. Further north, Russia also appears to be trying to exploit recent gains to push northward out of the Soldare region toward Silversk.
Along the southern front, more reports that Russia is committing more reinforcements in its fight for Vuhledar. Overnight battles though indicate that Russia hasn’t learned anything, throwing armor across wide open fields and straight into minefields where these charges fall flat on their faces and infantry running to get out of the kill zone.
OUTLOOK –
Fog of war surrounding the fighting around Bahkmut has me concerned about the ability of Ukraine to maintain its defenses there much longer. I’m seeing some OSINT analysts noting Russian gains on the north with others saying these gains are a major breakout in the development. Who to believe. Russian milbloggers/propagandists that some OSINT folks monitor would be inclined to believe that the Russian hordes are pouring into the Bakhmut region and the battle is lost. Others that take a more conservative view – and IMHO a broader based intel view – note gains have been made and are watching to see Ukraine’s response to the action.
I think that Ukraine will be forced to withdraw from Bakhmut to prepared fall back positions as they have in the past. Ukraine will hold positions long enough to bleed Russia of men and resources making it more difficult for them to press past the objective.
I also think that Russia has thrown some of its reserve forces into the fight to regain face lost in that they couldn’t claim a major victory on the anniversary of the start of the war. Russia also sees that it is running out of time and that Ukraine isn’t being sucked into a larger defensive battle instead of preparing for an offensive. The current Russian offensive is a trifle compared to the last two by Ukraine that recaptured tens of thousands of square Kms of land in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.
OSINT analysts are evaluating a new tactical structure of the Russian forces roughly called an ‘assault battle group’. This is a major variation from the battalion task groups (BTG) from the start of the war. These new units are far more leg infantry oriented, with very little armor/tanks support. This is due to the extensive loss of armor during the course of the war. It is believed to be roughly based in part on Wagner Group organizations in their fight in Bakhmut.
By light, only a few tanks and a small number of APCs are assigned (many infantry riding on top) and mostly infantry. Some towed artillery and mortars.
This battalion tends to engage in company and smaller sized attacks. Lack of leadership has gotten worse, with officers being forced to micromanage the fight – making the unit very inflexible to battlefield changes.
Most of the infantry is composed of poorly trained and equipped conscripts. Medical support is crude, with wounded location noted for following medical teams (that often don’t get there).
If you guessed, I don’t think this adaptation is going to work very well for Russia either. It relies on human wave style attacks and very little tactics.
Final OUTLOOK note - indicators that Russia may be preparing for another ballistic / cruise missile barrage in the coming days. Naval and strategic bomber nets have been increasingly active - in the past this has served as precursors to strikes.
Misc of Note –
EPA has halted movement of contaminated water and soil from the East Palestine train wreck site, citing that the volumes are overwhelming authorized sites and indicating that EPA wants a better plan to address the goals and extent of this early clear-up effort. Pretty lame on the EPAs part. Also being noted that both the railroad and the EPA seem to be tiptoeing around the whole dioxin issue - the elephant in the room.
Black Swans
The WHO has been shouting warnings that the H5N1 strain of the bird flu that has been hammering poultry flocks around the world for the past couple years was going to make the jump to humans. Now the WHO is sounding the alarm over a string of human infections in Cambodia, indicating that the virus has made the jump.
Cambodia’s health ministry said the girl’s father had also tested positive for the H5N1 bird fly and 11 others had been tested. The girl who died had fallen ill a week earlier with a high fever, cough, and sore throat. She was from the rural Prey Veng province.
On Thursday, Health Minister Mam Bunheng said it was the first known human infection of the H5N1 strain in Cambodia since 2014, according to a report by the BBC.
The girl had been taken from her village to the children’s hospital in the capital Phnom Penh – but died shortly after her diagnosis. Officials have collected samples of several dead birds from near the girl’s village. Health officials have also warned residents against touching dead or sick birds.
WHO has recorded eight cases of human H5N1 infections since 2021, including in China, India, Spain, the UK, and the US.
OBSERVATION – There is still a lot of smoke surrounding the reported death and illnesses claimed to have been caused by the strain in Cambodia. Since the ebbing of the wuhan plandemic, the WHO and its cohorts, have been warning about a new, impending pandemic. It is too early to say if the virus has mutated enough to make the jump to humans or not, but in spite of the propaganda and fear mongering from the WHO, this could represent a real natural (or at worst, engineered) threat. I noted that the wuhan was spotted early in some of these obscure like report before exploding on the scene.
ping to above
So much for "the police have no duty to protect"...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Security Alert: U.S. Embassy – State of Disaster Declared Over Ongoing Energy Crisis of “Load-shedding” – Controlled Electricity Outages
The government of South Africa has declared a “State of Disaster” in response to ongoing power shortages. The country’s energy crisis includes sustained load-shedding (controlled rolling blackouts), at varying intervals and is expected to extend beyond 2023. Load-shedding currently results in localized power outages of up to six hours or more per day throughout the country. These planned electricity outages negatively affect private residences, businesses, municipal lighting, traffic lights, and hotels. Rolling blackouts can also impact water availability and safety, internet connectivity, cell phone network coverage, fuel pumps (and therefore fuel availability), residential security features, and the food supply. Additionally, power outages have the potential to increase crime; for example, traffic jams when lights are out provide opportunities for smash and grab crime, and residences can be targeted when lights are out and security systems are not functioning. Further, ongoing conditions have led to an increase in protests and demonstrations, and in some cases civil unrest, throughout the country.
OBSERVATION – S Africa used to be a first world country with abundant power for all citizens. Now they cannot provide clean water and now power. Food supplies are endangered as the predominantly white farmers are gradually leaving/being forced off their farms and the ‘locals’ take them over, with basically stone age farming practices. This is a picture of the future the WEF/GGR have for the world as a means of culling the sheeple.
Also concerning is the drift of the country into closer ties with Russia and China. May be trying for a parasitical relationship, but it will only go one way - towards the Russian/China alliance.
Wuhan virus –
WSJ - The shift by the Energy Department, which previously was undecided on how the virus emerged, is noted in an update to a 2021 document by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines’s office.
The new report highlights how different parts of the intelligence community have arrived at disparate judgments about the pandemic’s origin. The Energy Department now joins the Federal Bureau of Investigation in saying the virus likely spread via a mishap at a Chinese laboratory. Four other agencies, along with a national intelligence panel, still judge that it was likely the result of a natural transmission, and two are undecided.
The Energy Department’s conclusion is the result of new intelligence and is significant because the agency has considerable scientific expertise and oversees a network of U.S. national laboratories, some of which conduct advanced biological research.
OBSERVATION – WTH does the Energy Dept have ANYTHING to do with biological warfare to BEGIN WITH. If they are running biolabs, then we have a serious amount of mission creep and wasted money.
Economy –
Retail fertilizer prices have dropped 17% so far in 2023 and are expected to fall further. The spot Tampa anhydrous ammonia contract settled at $590 per metric ton, a 25% drop from last week and the lowest price since July 2021. (FO)
OBSERVATION – This is good news as long as supply chains/source hold.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Washington State Democrats proposed House Bill 1333 to establish a new commission, made up of racial groups, the FBI, state lawmakers, the ACLU, and the Anti-Defamation League, to pass judgment on the ideas of people, which they perceive to be disinformation and misinformation. Washington State’s far-Left Attorney General Bob Ferguson would oversee the proposed commission.
From a hearing on the bill, it is reported that “Under Washington state law, residents will now be classified as domestic terrorists if they protest school board meetings, Drag Queen Story Hour Events, and the outcome of elections, according to the examples provided.” - Katie Daviscourt
OBSERVATION – This is the growth of tyranny, pure and simple. Designed to increase the gap between the Red and blue. Eastern Washington state is continuing to push for separation and creation of its own state – Liberty. This tyranny will likely drive that move even harder.
POLITICAL FRONT –
A California-based law firm has accused Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, Runbeck Election Services, and a slew of other election officials, mayors, judges, city councilman, and county supervisors in the state of receiving bribes from the Sinaloa cartel.
During a Thursday hearing before the Senate Elections and Municipal Oversight & Elections Joint Committee, the principal investigator for Harris/Thaler Law Corporation, Jacqueline Breger, presented their shocking findings, detailing how a money-laundering investigation in the midwest revealed alleged corruption in Arizona.
OBSERVATION – Corruption always seems to be centered on democrats for some reason, shocked, shocked I tell you.
What is critical is that the cartels have deepened their hooks into southwestern states and what appears is that Arizona is in route to becoming a narko-terrorist enclave.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fierce fighting overnight on the northern flank of the Bahkmut pocket as Russian forces broke through Ukraine defenses and pushed westward. It has been reported that Ukraine forces launched a combined arms counter-attack SE along the M-03 HWY axis. This would effectively pinch off the Russian penetration. Much of this is still unconfirmed, mostly to the extent of each actions. There are other unconfirmed reports that Ukraine is beginning to stage forces for a withdrawal from the city.
Other unconfirmed reports that Russians have committed their most combat-ready forces to Bakhmut and that there are many Wagner Group convict personnel around the city.
Shahed-136 drones attempted to attack targets across Ukraine; they are reportedly flying extremely low in order to not be detected by radar. Numbers were not that significant in comparison to other attacks and they were not followed up by missile attacks.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Unconfirmed rumors of troop build ups in the Vasylivka area. No clarity if for defense of offense.
Crimean front ———
Reports of an explosion near the Crimean town of Sudak. A nasty odor is also smelled. Huge.
OUTLOOK –
With the stepped up fighting around Bakhmut, and the apparent commitment of a Russian reserve to the fight, Ukraine is having to evaluate its next moves at a strategic level. Withdrawl or commit forces to counter attack/reinforce the town which takes away from offensive planning.
Again, fog of war is thick and the current tactical situation is hard for me to see. Ukraine has caused high casualties to the Russian forces in their six plus month fight for the town, at high Ukraine losses as well. At present, I can’t see Ukraine holding for more than a week and executing an orderly withdrawal to deeper defensive positions where Russia will be forced to resume the same meat grinder operations they faced with Bahkmut.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Kremlin - the situation in Transnistria is not calm and is being stirred up by external forces.
Belarus -
Partisans from the “Pieramoha” (Victory) plan confirmed a successful special operation to blow up a rare Russian plane at the airfield in Machulishchy near Minsk. This is the most successful operation since the beginning of 2022. The plane was a Russian military A-50 AEW&C aircraft and according to the report the front and center parts of the aircraft, avionics and radar antenna were damaged. Russia has very few of these aircraft in service.
**
“Belarus is ready to mobilize 1.5 million people for the needs of the army in case of aggravation of the situation” - State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Alexander Volfovich
FYI Belarus has a population of about 9.4 million, less than half that military aged men.
Israel –
The west bank was on fire overnight as Israelis torched Palestinian houses and cars in Huwara. Dozens of Palestinian have been wounded and at least 1 killed. This comes after two Israelis were killed in a terrorist attack earlier today. Deputy Head of the political bureau of Hamas calls for Palestinians to go out and clash with Israeli forces and Israeli citizens in Hawara .
Israeli Security Forces have rushed 2 IDF Battalions and 4 Companies of Border Security to the West Bank in an attempt to quell the Unrest that appears to be spirally out of Control.
Israeli security forces are also still looking for the gunman.
OBSERVATION - Nasty situation overnight that appears to have been calmed down as I type. To say things are still tense is to understate it immensely. The terror attack was designed to provoke a response and to also justify rocket attacks from Gaza. Again, this is an outgrowth from Hamas-supported elements trying to show arabs in the West Bank who is stronger, them or the PA.
Iran –
Iran’s currency fell to a new record low on Sunday, plummeting to 600,000 rials to the dollar for the first time in history as the country’s economy continues to be roiled by nationwide anti-government protests and international sanctions.
Iranians’ purchasing power has been decimated by inflation, which reached an annual rate of 53.4% in January – up from 41.4% two years according to the country’s statistics center. The dire economic circumstances have wiped out the life savings of many and caused Iranians to form long lines at currency exchange offices in recent days in an effort to acquire increasingly scarce dollars.
OBSERVATION – Key source of discontent of the citizenry. The majority of Iran’s efforts are being directed towards military / terrorism support in the region. Leaves very little for the citizens.
Central / South America General-
Government authorities in El Salvador have locked up around 43K MS 13 and other gang members in what are being called mega-prisons. Once widely dubbed the “homicide capital of the world” - authorities in recent years thought they had it under control, but murders spiked over the past year.
This caused President Nayib Bukele to declared a state of emergency eight months ago, and police went ‘gloves off’ in attempting to clear the streets of gangs.
Civil rights advocates are decrying the massive lock ups, but the population is in supports, seeing the murder rate drop by something like 64%. Gangs in El Salvador have been problematic for decades, but the new response seems to be working. Honestly IMHO, you tat MS13 all over your body – you’ve chosen sides. To go one step more - start putting these criminals down for good for their crimes/murders.
Lesson for the US – as unrestrained crime is promoted by the Marxist in predominantly blue cities/states, there may become a similar call for a similar backlash. Don’t hold your breath that such a crackdown will occur since the left has coddled these thugs so far. However, spreading into red areas is another matter and may result in a civilian vigilante as well as govt response. Of course it would face immediate opposition by our leftist fed govt and private groups. Increasing CW2 tensions.