Well, hump day with a -6 outside. Darn groundhog . . . .
Globalism / Great Reset –
Danish officials have proposed a $108 per ton carbon emissions tax on farmers. The tax would discourage beef and dairy farming and nudge farmers to produce other crops which have lower emissions.
OBSERVATION – Similar measures are being voiced here in the US and other countries around the world. The goal is to essentially shut down the beef and dairy industries. Remember the adage – he who controls the food, control the world. WEF has been very outspoken about eliminating this sector of agriculture.
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From Reuters:
Swiss citizens will get the chance to try to ensure their economy never becomes cashless, a pressure group said, after collecting enough signatures on Monday to trigger a popular vote on the issue.
The Free Switzerland Movement (FBS) says cash is playing a shrinking role in many economies, as electronic payments become the default for transactions in increasingly digitised societies, making it easier for the state to monitor its citizens’ actions.
It wants a clause added to Switzerland’s currency law, which governs how the central bank and government manage the money supply, stipulating that a “sufficient quantity” of banknotes or coins must always remain in circulation…
Under Switzerland’s system of direct democracy, the proposal would become law if approved by voters, though government and parliament would decide how that law was implemented.
OBSERVATION – Pockets of resistance that will delay, but not stop, the WEF/GGR goal of a global electronic currency.
Wuhan virus –
Reports that the CDC has issued some report ‘confirming’ that deliberately dangerous / deadly doses of the jab were distributed to red states. Note this is someone’s analysis of VARES data and is not a CDC report per say. It will need a lot more analysis to verify. Conspiracy theory? Similar has been floating around for a while. Time will tell if it is another truth and not conspiracy.
Economy –
The National Association of Realtors on Tuesday published their monthly update, which showed that existing-home sales fell for the 12th straight month in January.
The inventory of unsold existing homes grew from the prior month to 980,000 at the end of January, as mortgage rates remain above 6% for a 30-year fixed.
The median existing-home sales price increased by 1.3% from one year ago to $359,000 .
OBSERVATION – It is being forecast (as well as stated by the Fed) that interest rates will continue at their high levels for at least another year, if not longer. The Fed stated that the housing market will essentially be ‘colleterial’ damage in their fight against inflation. Not only now have they damaged the market, they have also created an intense spiral in rental prices as people cannot afford to purchase.
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America is bracing for a mass exodus of retail stores across the nation this year, with more than 800 big box locations set to close from California to New York.
Among the iconic names to announce they are downsizing includes Bed Bath & Beyond, Walmart, Gap and Party City.
At least 803 stores are set to be shuttered over the rest of 2023, with many forced into desperate cost cutting measures amid rampant inflation and declining bottom lines.
OBSERVATION – Multiple whammies from wuhan shutdowns, to inability to hire workers and now the crushing effects of over a year of excessively high inflation. Add to this the likelihood of corporations looking into the crystal ball and seeing a recession, making it likely they are trying to get rid of dead wood sooner rather than later.
Now granted, the biggest loser is Bed Bath & Beyond – set to close over 400 stores – and is a case study in get woke, go broke.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden is scheduled to meet with the Bucharest Nine, a group of Eastern European NATO allies, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to reaffirm the U.S.’ unwavering support for the alliance in Warsaw, Poland. (FO)
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dominion voting machines just got slapped in the face during the discovery phase of its lawsuit against Fox news. Fox obtained emails/memos from Dominion clearly stating that their voting systems had serious bugs and flaws that would lead to voting errors.
In a 2018 email Fox News obtained from Dominion Director of Product Strategy and Security Eric Coomer, he acknowledged the company’s technology was marred by a “*critical* bug leading to INCORRECT results.”
OBSERVATION – Someone forgot to tell the Dominion’s legal team that discovery can cut both ways.
In a related story, an investigative report by some brave folks in Sacramento Kalifornian discovered boxes of Dominion voting machines in boxes all marked “made in China” as well as other irregularities.
Clearly, this is a deliberate effort to steal elections and help Marxists retain control govt.
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New York Young Republican Club announced they have suspended Matthew Tyrmand, a member of the Project Veritas Board of Directors. According to NYYRC:
“Yesterday, James O’Keefe announced that the Project Veritas Board had terminated his responsibilities. O’Keefe established Project Veritas, which he has grown into one of the nation’s greatest hard-hitting investigative media sources.
After conducting a series of interviews, the Board of Governors of the New York Young Republican Club has learned that Matthew Tyrmand, a member of our Board of Advisors, may have engineered O’Keefe’s ouster on tenuous claims of financial malfeasance.
O’Keefe is a close friend of the Club, and Tyrmand serves as a member of the Club’s Board of Advisors. Pending the outcome of an internal investigation, to be conducted by our Board of Governors, Matthew Tyrmand will be suspended from his role. We believe in free speech and transparency of operations, and the credible reports we have received require full investigation to ensure that our Members’ interests are represented appropriately.
The Club will continue to be transparent with the public as more information can be released over time.”
OBSERVATION- This whole thing stinks to high heaven. It isn’t coincidence that this coup happened after Pfizer was ripped a new one. Money / threats are flowing somewhere. IMHO – the board was infiltrated by those who’s purpose was to sabotage the organization in an effort to destroy its credibility . The board is facing termination level pushback – and deservingly so.
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Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., the National Republican Congressional Committee chairman, is calling for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to be held accountable for the details of a potentially explosive Politico report, which alleges that a research firm hired by the DCCC obtained military personnel filesof multiple Republican leaders — without proper consent.
“This systematic weaponization of Republican candidates’ military service against them is beyond disgusting. It is time for the DCCC to stop hiding and face accountability for their actions,” Hudson said in a statement.
Hudson then added: “The Department of Justice must immediately begin investigations into this matter, and if the DCCC violated the law, they should face prosecution.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/nrcc-dccc-politico/2023/02/21/id/1109589/
OBSERVATION – IIRC, I noted this action during the 2022 campaign season. Someone in the DoD needs to go to jail, but won’t because the DoJ will do absolutely nothing. This two – tiered justice system is a major contributor to the ‘national divorce’ discussions running across the interwebs of late.
Cyber Warfare –
Though not necessarily cyber warfare, this is stupid of an enormous magnitude.
The U.S. Department of Defense secured an exposed server on Monday that was spilling internal U.S. military emails to the open internet for the past two weeks.
The exposed server was hosted on Microsoft’s Azure government cloud for Department of Defense customers, which uses servers that are physically separated from other commercial customers and as such can be used to share sensitive but unclassified government data. The exposed server was part of an internal mailbox system storing about three terabytes of internal military emails, many pertaining to U.S. Special Operations Command, or USSOCOM, the U.S. military unit tasked with conducting special military operations.
But a misconfiguration left the server without a password, allowing anyone on the internet access to the sensitive mailbox data inside using only a web browser, just by knowing its IP address.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2023/02/sensitive-us-military-emails-spill-online/
Leaving SOCOM messages flapping in the breeze for two weeks – someone should be shot. Makes me harken back to when democrats released information that got a who mess of CIA agents killed globally. SOCOM is the tip of the spear in many operations around the world and any loss of life from these leaks – unspeakable.
However, rest assured no one will lose their job or go to jail over this ‘error’
China –
See Russia below on high level diplomatic meetings between China and Russia RE: Ukraine
Japan –
The Japanese and Vietnamese Coast Guard (VCG) concluded a joint training exercise off the coast of central Vietnam. The joint exercise occurred from February 13th to 19th and engaged in several training activities with several VCG personnel to enhance coordination between the two agencies.
OBSERVATION – Japan is quickly coming out of its box and more aggressively (in a mild manner) seeking to establish new ties with other countries in the region who also are threatened by Chinese expansionism.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Rapidly closing in on the one year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.
China’s top diplomat Wang Yi met with the head of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, and China’s MOFA says they discussed the situation in Ukraine, without providing additional details.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Some are saying that putin’s speech yesterday he said Russia would resume nuclear testing. His actual quote is
“Of course, we will not do this first. But if the United States conducts tests, then we will,” Putin threatened.
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Putin announced that Russia would suspend its participation in the New START Treaty limiting strategic nuclear warheads but is not withdrawing from the treaty altogether, but that they will continue to uphold its key principles. That, along with some other nuclear sabre rattling appear to be following the motif Russia has used to threaten NATO to limit its involvement in the Ukraine war.
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Russia attempted to test an ICBM whilst POTUS was in Ukraine, which seems to have failed. The U.S had been notified of the test. U.S. officials say the launch of a SARMAT missile, which the Russians informed the U.S. would occur hours prior thru deconfliction lines, failed.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures still ranging in the 30s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period. Weather systems generating about 75-100% cloud cover, not very optimum for CAS.
Donetsk forecast for the next 14 days calls for above freezing daytime temps. Showing only the next 7 days, rain with occasional snow mix for several. Highs in the low 40s the week after with off/on rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia continues to pressure Bahkmut from the nort, making incremental gains. Analysts are noting that Russian seems to be attacking Bahkmut from the north rather than pushing around the city to cut it off. This means they are attacking into the maul of the meat grinder.
There are reports of explosions and the activity of Russian air defense in many places in the occupied east of Ukraine. According to even Russian propagandists, targets were at Donetsk, Makiivka, Khartsizsk, Ilovaisk, Mariupol and other places. Russian reporters say a ‘new’ weapon was being used.
OUTLOOK –
Back to the standard outlook – Russia to continue to press the attack on Bahkmut with other smaller attacks along the Donetsk – Svatove line. Meanwhile, Ukraine is getting new western systems and gearing up for their offensive. I see no change in this status quo in the near future.
Should Russia try something stupid in Moldova (see below), things could get very spicy, but not end well for Russia.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldova’s Prime Minister Recean has stated that he believes Russian Forces are preparing to Capture the International Airport in the Moldavian Capital City of Chișinău in order to transfer additional Troops into the Country. He says that Moldavian Security Forces are preparing for such a Situation.
Ukrainian President Zelensky has stated he’s recently received Intelligence that shows Russia is preparing to Capture the International Airport in the Moldavian Capital of Chișinău.
OBSERVATION – Seems to be ratching up the rhetoric a lot. I have to question the alledged Russian operation. They are already short men and equipment for Ukraine as it is. To divert a lot of resources first to capture the airport, then think they are just going to float on into Transnistria unopposed with very little support from Russia is highly questionable. I can see where, under different conditions, a push into Ukraine form Transnistria may have some strategic advantages, it would fail epically IMHO. There isn’t enough armor to support the forces.
The only thing Transnistria has going for it Russia wise is the reportedly largest stash of ammo in the region. But is it worth the risk?
Romania may independently come to Moldova’s aid, as well as Poland. This would not trigger an Article 5 response from NATO, but would greatly expand the potential for a direct NATO-Russia conflict.
Belarus -
Observers monitoring Belarus and Russian military activity note only training related operations and no significant force build up that would suggest an attack into Ukraine from the north.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Serbia further disses Russia by going with European/French fighter jets over Russian made one. The biggest complaint is that they can’t get the parts necessary from Russia to repair the jets they have.
Iran –
Germany has declared two employees of the Iranian embassy personae non gratae and ordered them to leave the country in protest over Iran sentencing a German national to death
Misc of Note –
East Palestine OH- Around 15,000 pounds of contaminated soil and 1.1 million gallons of contaminated water have been excavated from the site of a train derailment earlier this month in East Palestine, Ohio, train operator Norfolk Southern said on Feb. 20.
“Additionally, a series of pumps have been placed upstream to reroute Sulphur Run around the derailment site,” the carrier said. “The affected portion of Sulphur Run has been dammed to protect water downstream.”
“Environmental teams are treating the impacted portions of Sulphur Run with booms, aeration, and carbon filtration units,” Norfolk Southern said, adding that those teams are “also working with stream experts to collect soil and groundwater samples to develop a comprehensive plan to address any contamination that remains in the stream banks and sediment.”
OBSERVATION – This is just the start of a very massive and expensive clean-up. Norfolk Southern may soon regret that the took a shortcut in dealing with the VC cars in the first place. Having been in the environmental clean-up world for 25 years prior to retirement, this is only going to get bigger and bigger IMHO.
Globalism / Great Reset –
WHO Director General Tedros: “This week, WHO member states are hosting discussions on amendments to the International Health Regulations. Next week, countries will begin negotiations on a ‘Zero Draft’ of the new Pandemic Accord.”
OBSERVATION – Currently looks like WHO has made the maneuvers to get this pseudo treaty past the member states. The US has essentially capitulated to its terms – though there are some in congress that say otherwise. Problem is that treaty approvals are in the Senate – and it is unlikely that Schumer will intervein to either exert that prerogative to deny the WHO treaty. Biden is unlikely to submit it to the senate for approval because there is enough opposition to sustain a filibuster – effectively blocking the treaty – though biden would work around the edges to implement it anyway.
Wuhan virus –
In a study conducted by George Mason University’s Mercatus Center, researchers analyzed data to examine the efficacy of citywide Covid vaccine mandates in 2021.
Across the country, widespread mandates were issued for businesses, transport, and indoor public places.
However, the researchers say they found “no evidence” that these measures did anything to reduce Covid cases or deaths.
“These mandates imposed severe restrictions on the lives of many citizens and business owners,” the researchers said.
OBSERVATION – To which there is a collective ‘WELL DUH’..
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Sort of related - Influenza vaccine effectiveness was under 50 percent this season, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), though a smaller study arrived at higher estimates.
Data from the CDC’s New Vaccine Surveillance Network showed the vaccines were 49 percent effective against hospitalization or emergency department visits.
OBSERVATION – Remember, this year’s jab is based on flu strains from last year. I’ve stopped getting the flu jab since in the past I’ve gotten sicker with it than with out it. I’ve also incorporated a vitamin supplement regime of D, Zinc, C etc to strengthen my immune systems capabilities for many years now. Likely why my suspected infection from wuhan was mild – even though I’m diagnosed with Immune Difficiency syndrome.
Economy –
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) introduced the CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) Anti-Surveillance State Act which would prohibit the Federal reserve banks from offering CBDC services or using CBDC in monetary policy. Emmer said any digital version of the U.S. dollar must uphold the American values of privacy, individual sovereignty, and free market competition. (FO)
OBSERVATION – This bill would be DOA in the Senate, but it does draw a line in the sand for the 2024 campaign wars.
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This week, the Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, sent a note to investors relating the state of the market to the “death zone” and warning that the S&P 500, which is up 6 percent since the start of 2023, could fall as many as 3,000 points in the upcoming months once investors realize there won’t be a Federal Reserve pivot later this year.
OBSERVATION – The Fed “pivot” being a freezing or even reversal of the increased to the prime. Evidently some are drinking the koolaid that everything is going to be fine and placing their money where their mouth is. IDK where they get this pivot talk from – the stuff from the Fed that I’ve been seeing all says that rates will likely continue to increase and stay high for a considerable period of time.
IN RELATED - Federal Reserve officials signaled at their most recent meeting that additional interest rate hikes are necessary this year to bring inflation down to their 2% target, although many supported a slower pace of increases.
Minutes from the U.S. central bank’s Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting released on Wednesday showed that a number of policymakers are worried an “insufficiently restrictive” policy stance could “halt recent progress in moderating inflationary pressures” and keep consumer prices elevated for a longer period.
NOTE just like I said, the Fed is reluctant to stop raising the rates.
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An analyst asked Walmart U.S. CEO John Furner and Walmart CEO Douglas McMillon during the grocery behemoth’s fourth-quarter earnings call whether the company expects food inflation trends to worsen or improve relative to other product categories. Furner remarked that food inflation “has been the most stubborn” driver of elevated price levels and noted that only “a little bit” has declined in the past several months. “We would have hoped and expected it to have come back more than it has going into this year,” he responded.
McMillon added that dry grocery items and consumables are the most “stubborn” and said that inflationary pressures in the categories would “be with us for a while.” He went on to say future nominal disinflation would nevertheless compound price increases from previous years.
“You’ll probably hear inflation numbers that start to sound lower, but you’ll have to remember that’s on a two-year stack,” McMillon continued. “So if inflation in dry grocery and consumables is only 3% or 5%, that’s on top of 15%. And that’s still a problem for the customer and still a pressure to their wallet.”
OBSERVATION – More high prices being forecast – minus any supply issues.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden stumbled and fell while going up the stairs of Air Force One departing Warsaw, Poland.
OBSERVATION – Don’t kill the messenger on this. He is obviously physically challenged with his age, he can hardly walk across that stage at times. But for those who’ve never taken the stairs into a jumbo jet, that is one heck of a long climb, even for the young and healthy. Most of you have only entered through a jet port and have no clue.
CW2/Domestic violence –
A bill filed in the California State Senate would exclude banks who work with gun makers from participating in California’s $40 to $80 billion annual municipal bond market and other financial markets in the state of California’s control. (FO)
OBSERVATION – State use of banks to try to influence/control aspects of the 2d Amendment freedoms of the country are increasing. Recently Texas did the reverse – prohibiting banks that tacitly condoned gun control. Kalifornia OTOH, will essentially be shooting itself in the foot by limiting bond sales in a market where more and more their fiscal policies are making such sales risky to investors to begin with.
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Antifa et al activity has been at smaller, local levels of activity. Mostly in response to supporting activist trans rallies or against anti-grooming protests.
Potential Antifa threats continues with their protests in Atlanta over a new police training center that could go hot when construction resumes.
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The Biden administration is preparing to revoke a Trump-era religious protection for university students, calling the rule “unduly burdensome.”
The Department of Education announced Tuesday that it is proposing to rescind the religious freedom section of the 2019 executive order “Improving Free Inquiry, Transparency, and Accountability at Colleges and Universities,” which requiresfederal departments to ensure that colleges receiving federal grants “promote free inquiry” consistent with the First Amendment.
If the Education Department revokes the rule, the agency will delegate cases of religious discrimination by universities to the courts, rather than threaten to pull grants from the institutions of higher education.
The executive order “caused confusion about schools’ nondiscrimination requirements” and is “unduly burdensome” for the department, said Nassar Paydar, assistant secretary for postsecondary education. The department insisted that with existing First Amendment protections, the executive order was unnecessary to prevent religious discrimination.
OBSERVATION – A component of the culture war feeding the growing CW2 scenario – once again being used to divide Americans and attack the free exercise of religious thoughts and speech. The regime has already made it clear through its weaponized alphabet departments that religion, and Christianity in specific, are enemies of the country to the level of being domestic terrorists. Removing these protections will also expose Christians to the whims of the Marxists in the education system who currently are fanning the flames of forcing radical transgenderism on society and encouraging legal action against those who oppose it (once again, largely Christians).
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Democratic lawmakers are seeking further restrictions on ammunition sales after submitting the “Stop Online Ammunition Sales Act of 2023” in late January, which would block online sales of ammunition and issue new guidance for brick-and-mortar stores.
The bill, H.R. 584, would require ammunition dealers to receive updated licenses and confirm the identity of any customer who attempts to purchase ammunition, further saying that online sales will be blocked and bulk purchases must be reported. Democratic New Jersey Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, a lawmaker backed by Michael Bloomberg’s anti-gun group Everytown for Gun Safety, introduced the bill alongside 23 House Democrats who co-signed the legislation.
https://dailycaller.com/2023/02/22/dem-reps-ammunitions-sales-americans/
OBSERVATION – Ammo has been a kind of gray area for constitutional protection and efforts to limit access to it have grown substantially. Currently Kalifornia’s law leads the way but is facing a difficult defense in the courts. Control and reporting of ammunition sales is also another work around to the forbidden gun registry. You buy 5.56 ammo, it is safe to assume you have an AR-15 variant. Same for other calibers. This bill is unlikely to pass the House, but demonstrates the continued pressure by the anti-second amendment Marxists to disarm the country.
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More on the culture war front of CW2. DoJ has charged 8 pro-life activitsts with FACE act violations. The two tier nature of govt law enforcement is reflected by a DoJ statement “that the escalation of enforcement of the FACE Act has partially been motivated by the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade. The Biden administration has made it a matter of urgency to find creative ways to circumvent and undermine the ruling via aggressive executive action against pro-life activists.”
Only one instance of pro-life violence and vandalism among the hundreds of attempted arson and physical threats – not to mention illegal protests outside of USSC justices home – has been advanced by the DoJ.
OBSERVATION – Marxist assults on American morals continues with this disgusting continued injustice against pro-life supporters. They continue to use it to divide the country.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The release of the hidden J6 videos is causing heads on the left to explode even as numerous clips showing uniformed and ununiformed police encouraging the actions – and more agent provocateurs throughout the crowds. The MSM is in scramble mode to keep these clips under wraps.
China –
Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles and acting Philippine Defense Secretary Carlito Galvez discussed the possibility of conducting joint patrols in the South China Sea (SCS).
OBSERVATION – China’s aggressiveness in the SCS, especially towards Philippine naval vessels is producing unintended consequences. Joint patrols would then force China to balance the aggressive actions with getting a bigger push back at sea – possibly a small ‘incident’. With those joint patrols China will have to recalculate its actions. Already China’s aggression towards Philippines has instigated talks between the Philippines and the US for joint patrols as well.
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Chinese and Indian officials met in Beijing to discuss disengagement proposals for remaining friction points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh.
OBSERVATION - After the stone age brawl a couple years ago, tensions have remained high along the border as both sided have built up their forces. There has been very little if any indications of compromise offered by either side, so these talks may well be unproductive exept for keeping lines of communications open.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Tomorrow is the one year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.
You can refresh yourselves to the build up to that start as it was tracked here in TM at the following link.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=1#1
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Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has shared an image of dozens of fighters who have been killed, blaming the Russian Ministry of Defence of deliberately depriving them of ammunition.
OBSERVATION – Wagner et al, has lost much putin’s support they had several months ago when they promised to capture Bahkmut. Instead, Wagner had thousands of dead and more wounded in the fight. The MoD now has the upper hand in their knife fight. However, they could lose their advantage should the offensive go bad (as it already appears to be).
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures still ranging in the 30s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period. Weather systems generating about 75-100% cloud cover, not very optimum for CAS.
Donetsk forecast for the next 14 days calls for above freezing daytime temps. Showing only the next 7 days, rain with occasional snow mix for several. Highs in the low 40s the week after with off/on rain.
Tomorrow is the one year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has been told to expect Russian missile attacks to coincide with the anniversary of the invasion, its intelligence service says.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian activity appears to be trying to increase prior to the one year anniversary of the war. More Russian assaults on Bakhmut’s northern flank. Reports that Russia has made more incremental gains there. However, Russia is fast losing its artillery edge in the sector with reports from both sides indicating that there is near parity in the sector. Last spring Russia held a 10:1 advantage in the east. This parity is evidence that Ukraine’s deep attacks on ammo and artillery (particularly counterbattery fire) combined with poor Russian maintenance and operations, have taken a significant advantage away from them.
A series of explosions hit occupied Mariupol, about 80km from the front, is raising speculations that Ukraine has long-range missiles outside of its conventional striking range. HIMARS has a range of about 75km. Targets have been buildings housing Russian troops and according to Russian sources, the strikes have been pretty effective.
British Intelligence believes that Russian Forces are preparing to step up the offensive near Vuhledar within the next 48 hours. Analysts noting an increase in artillery preparation of the battlefield against Ukraine positions. .
Also fresh RUMINT that Russia may be trying to set up a false flag event in southern Belarus.
Considerable amount of discussions regarding Moldova and possible expansion of the conflict there – See Moldova/Transnistria below for more.
OUTLOOK –
There is an expectation that Russia will do something big tomorrow. Just what is still up for speculation. Several valid options are
1. Another missile barrage, perhaps targeting more Ukrainian cultural targets in addition to power grid related.
2. Deployment of what ever reserve forces that they have on the Bakhmut fight as well as in the Kreminna-Svatove line. Potential renewed assault on Vuhledar.
However, all indicators point to the Russians attempting to attack across a wide front, rather than concentrating their forces towards key objectives. Just repeating the errors that lead to their disastrous adventures in n Ukraine. I really don’t see any conventional rabbits being pulled out of the hat.
Now, the situation in Moldova and potentially Belarus are wild cards. I think something happening is Moldova is a stronger possibility. The bigger question is why? As noted above, lose-lose for Russia.
Finally, Russian failure to really get anything going on the ground over the nearly month of their current offensive has given Ukraine time to prepare for their counter offensive. Western arms and equipment are now arriving in country and considerable numbers of Ukrainians are receiving training on them.
One other thing is that it appears that Ukraine has built or obtained a new, longer range weapon system. There have been Russian reports for several days now of strong attacks way behind Russian lines. Not good news for Russian who has been facing increasing attacks on troop billets/concentrations thanks in part to these new weapons and timely reporting - likely from Ukrainians in occupied territories.
Moldova/Transnistria - ALERT MODE
(Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin revoked on Tuesday a 2012 decree that in part underpinned Moldova’s sovereignty in resolving the future of the Transdniestria region - a Moscow-backed separatist region which borders Ukraine and where Russia keeps troops. The decree, which included a Moldova component, outlined Russia’s foreign policy 11 years ago which assumed Moscow’s closer relations with the European Union and the United States.
The Russian Ministry of Defense released a statement claiming that Ukrainian and “Azov” Forces are preparing to stage “False Provocations” from the Breakaway-Region of Transnistria in order to provide justification for an Invasion of Moldova.
Russian Sources are now claiming that a large number of Ukrainian Combat Forces are being moved towards the Border with Moldova and Transnistria and that they alongside Moldovan Security Forces are planning to Invade the Breakaway Region sometime between February 24th and 28th. (Consider RUMINT)
OBSERVATION – This rhetoric has increased significantly since recent revelations that Russia was planning on capturing the main airport in Moldova to facilitate troop movements into the region and over all higher tensions. NATO airborne intelligence assets have been noted orbiting the Romanian/Moldova border keeping eyes on the situation.
Any move by Russia would be a lose-lose scenario for them as their forces in the region are overstretched. VDV forces would be used for the airport seizure attempt – except that they’ve bleed them way down, so their quality of the soldiers is not as good as a year ago and most of their VDV are currently tied down in the operations in eastern Ukraine.
It is estimated that about 1500 Russian troops currently occupy Transnistria and they are not the best equipped / trained at the moment. Expansion of conflict there could tie down Ukrainian forces needed for their offensive
A reminder – Transnistria was part of the strategic goal for Russia at the start of the war. To produce a ‘land bridge’ from Russia thru southern Ukraine to Transistria – essentially sealing off the Black Sea from Ukrainian use.
Any Russian incursions into the rest of Moldova may energize action by Romania to step in.
Belarus -
RUMINT. Russian military convoys without identification marks have been spotted in the direction of the Chernihiv region with men dressed in pixel camo similar to the uniform of Ukraine’s Armed Forces - operational Command North
OBSERVATION – Belarus has repeatedly stated that the only way they’d get involved on the ground in Ukraine is if Ukraine (or NATO country) invaded it. This could well be a false flag operation in the making to drag Belarus kicking and screaming into the war.
Other sources of resistance from within Belarus still report that conventional Russian and Belarus forces are in training mode away from border regions.
NATO’s chief said that the military alliance has seen “some signs” that China may be planning to support Russia in its war in Ukraine, and strongly urged Beijing to desist from what would be a violation of international law.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also told The Associated Press in an interview that the alliance, while not a party to the war, will support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”
Asked whether NATO has any indication that China might be ready to provide arms or other support to Russia’s war, Stoltenberg said:
“We have seen some signs that they may be planning for that and of course NATO allies, the United States, have been warning against it because this is something that should not happen. China should not support Russia’s illegal war.” — Associated Press
OBSERVATION – I don’t see any significant change to Russian capablilties in the short term – other than propaganda. Longer term results may help Russia, but indebt them to China in a big way. China has spent the past year plus developing work-arounds to any sanctions imposed by the west, primarly if Taiwan is invaded, but those actions will also work for any sanctions placed on it for military support given to Russia.
Israel –
Following Israeli raids in Nablus to preemptively strike terrorists there, at least six rockets have been launched from the Gaza Strip towards the Israeli city of Ashkelon.
In response to the rockets fired from Gaza, IAF fighter jets struck both a weapons manufacturing site and military compound belonging to the Hamas Terrorist Organization, located in central and northern Gaza.
The timing of Wednesday’s IDF operation in Nablus, in which 10 Palestinians were killed and dozens injured, could not have been any worse for the Palestinian Authority, whose leaders were quick to condemn Israel and call for international protection to the Palestinians. The military raid is seen by many Palestinians as yet another sign of the PA leadership’s deceptive policies and double talk.
OBSERVATION – The unrest in the west bank/Nablus reflect the power struggle between Hamas and the PA. At one time more ‘moderate’ because the PA was able to get Israeli jobs for the masses, corruption and disintegrating tolerance of Israel has put them in a fix. The rise of Iran in the mix – contributing money, supplies and radical ideas – is beginning to tip the population toward Hamas and related jihadic elements. There West bank is facing an election in the upcoming months that could see the total switch of leadership and the creation of a new “gaza” state in the west bank. Israel is doing what it can to eliminate as much of that new leadership now before that happens.
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Israel’s new government under Benjamin Netanyahu has stepped up US-backed talks with Saudi Arabia on forging stronger military and intelligence ties, Bloomberg reported late last week. The talks are part of an effort to forge a NATO-style anti-Iran alliance in the region between Israel and Washington’s Gulf Arab allies.
OBSERVATION – Alliance against Iran. Even Saudi Arabia sees the cost benefits of joining with Israel on this.
Saudi Arabia –
See Israel above on security agreement negotiations.
Misc of Note –
There was a fire at a uranium compound at the Y-12 National Security Complex in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. It was brought under control with reportedly no release of uranium.
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A rare Blizzard Warning has been issued for parts of Southern California as the next storm system is expected to crash ashore on Thursday.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, this is the first such warning for the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties since 1989. The forecast calls for upwards of 5 feet of snow and wind gusts of more than 55 mph in the warned area.
“Your eyes are not deceiving you, said FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin. “All the way down in Southern California, that orange box is a Blizzard Warning that’s in effect for Friday morning until 4 p.m. on Saturday afternoon.”
Though the snow will be most concentrated in the mountains, David Sweet, a meteorologist at the weather service’s Oxnard office said, heavy precipitation and winds will span the region, especially Saturday when the “cold core” of the storm will center on Los Angeles.
“It’s going to be a wild and woolly kind of day — the lightning, the thunder, the hail, the graupel,” he said, referring to a type of frozen crystal that can look like snowflakes. “No one is going to be spared.”
OBSERVATION – Welcome to my world . . . .
Wild weather across the country.