Economy –
On Friday, the January’s PCE report showed 0.6 percent month-over-month inflation while estimates called for just 0.4 percent. That’s the PCE’s largest increase since last June, mirroring inflationary spikes measured by the Consumer and Producer Price Indexes. Year-over-year, PCE inflation hit 5.4 percent, also beating the expected 5.0 percent. On both a monthly and annual basis, PCE showed accelerating inflation at the start of 2023.
What’s more, Friday’s PCE release revised December’s monthly read up from 0.3 percent to 0.4 percent. That is, inflation is ticking back up and accelerating quickly in the wrong direction.
As Bloomberg noted in its report on the latest inflation number, “the easing that was celebrated at the end of last year has largely been erased after revisions and the acceleration in January.” Their report also quoted Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester as saying there’s still a “need to keep raising rates” and the latest PCE read is “consistent with the fact that the Fed needs to do a little more on our policy rate to make sure that inflation is moving back down.”
OBSERVATION – This is not good news and being released on Friday may cause more ripples when next week rolls around. This increased PCE is a harbinger of increasing inflation - meaning that the Fed may shift its thoughts yet again to larger rate increases rather than the smaller increases and slowdown they discussed a couple weeks ago. Rates are at their highest level since the financial crisis of 2007-2008 — Friday’s PCE report means that the chances of a so-called “soft landing” for the economy as it slows are dwindling.
Biden / Harris watch –
Press: “Are you planning on traveling to East Palestine?”
Biden: “At this moment not. I was, I did a whole video, I mean, uh, you know, the uh, what the hell? Zoom. All I can hear every time I think of Zoom is that song of my generation, ‘Who’s Zoomin’ Who?’”
CW2/Domestic violence –
NC House Speaker Tim Moore, his security and Rep. David Willis were involved in a car accident this evening, in which another car rammed into their vehicle several times on the interstate. Circumstances are under investigation.
Wake County District Attorney Lorrin Freeman and highway patrol told Axios that James Matthew Brogden of Goldsboro was arrested and charged with misdemeanors for the following: driving while impaired, resisting a public officer, injury to personal property, speeding to elude arrest, failure to heed blue lights and siren, hit and run, failure to reduce speed to avoid a collision and damage to property.
Wake County District Attorney Lorrin Freeman and highway patrol told Axios that James Matthew Brogden of Goldsboro was arrested and charged with misdemeanors for the following: driving while impaired, resisting a public officer, injury to personal property, speeding to elude arrest, failure to heed blue lights and siren, hit and run, failure to reduce speed to avoid a collision and damage to property.
OBSERVATION – Alcohol can remove restraint on an individual’s urges. Combined with the recent murders of two NJ(?) republican state representatives I am growing increasingly concerned over the potential that on a state / local level republicans are becoming targeted for violence.
**
MSNBC extremist contributor Jason Johnson declared Thursday that the Republican Party no longer exists and that it is now just a front for a terrorist organisation. Johnson made the comments during a discussion centered on the release of previously unseen footage from the January 6th Capitol incident.
House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s provided the unreleased security camera footage to Fox News host Tucker Carlson, immediately triggering the far left.
Johnson commented on the move, stating “I’m not being incendiary when I say this, I’ve been saying this for a long time… There is no Republican Party. They’re a dime store front for a terrorist organization.”
OBSERVATION - While this dude is just a bloviating wannabe, his comments pull back the curtain of thought from the Marxist left on their thoughts and ultimately their goals to try to eliminate the right. The MSM doesn’t just shill out its TV time for anyone/anything and is interconnected to the Marxist swamp as a propaganda mouthpiece. Most certainly his views reflect those of the leftist leadership of this country.
IN RELATED – I haven’t commented on this arrogant ignoramus with delusions of adequacy before, but it reflects the observation above. Joy Behar thinks residents of East Palestine got what they deserved because they voted overwhelmingly for Trump. Yes, she will be allowed to show up for work next week to have more sewage spill out of her mouth, but once again – she is reflecting the thoughts and desires of the hard left that is pulling the strings of media and govt.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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One year ago Russia invaded Ukraine and thus begun one of the nastiest conflicts in my life time.
You can refresh yourselves to the start of that war as it was tracked here in TM at the following link.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=1#1
The anniversary date came and went with Russia unable to tout any success in their current offensive – a very telling tale indeed.
Logistics –
- Iranian made Shahad 136 drones have been absent from the battlefield since Feb 13h, suggesting that Russia’s stockpile of the systems is gone. Russia is suspected on trying to obtain more from Iran. These drones have had a high rate of being shot down, but have served to locally overwhelm air defense systems, giving higher powered Russian ballistic and cruise missiles a better chance of hitting their targets.
Economic Impact –
- The US marked the anniversary of Ukraine war with sanctions against Russian banks, military industry, semiconductor access.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The majority of the fighting continues to be along the Donetsk-Kreminna line, again focused on Bahkmut, where Russian forces continue to eke out minor gains at a high cost of men and machines. Russian scattered artillery attacks all along the LOC from Kherson to Sumy Oblast.
OUTLOOK –
I can see no real changes in the current general stalemate in Ukraine. It is becoming more evident that Ukraine is executing an economy of force operation in the east (particularly Bahkmut) that is freeing up resources to train and fall in on modern, western tanks, APCs and other weapon systems – in order to have all put together for an offensive. The Russians appear to be losing the race to preempt that offensive and are frittering away its resources in ill-designed operations that in the long run will help Ukraine’s offensive.
Its been a while since a big Russian missile attack on Ukraine and lots of talk of increased Russian naval vessels with cruise missile launching capabilities being deployed in the Black Sea – an indicator of an impending attack. Monitoring the Russian AF strategic bomber nets to see if they activate and start sending out the formatted (they are encrypted) message for that component of an attack. My guess that Monday is the next window – as Russia has had a habit of doing such attacks on that day.
Moldova/Transnistria - ALERT MODE
Russia’s foreign ministry says that any actions threatening Russian peacekeepers in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria will be seen as an attack on Russia - TASS
OBSERVATION – Some of the dust appears to be settling from all the rhetoric this week. It seems to me that Russia was attempting to sow some seeds of misdirection and discontent here as well as rumored false flag operation against Belarus to drag them into the war.
The EU has adopted new sanctions against Russia. These include bans on exports of technology, imports of asphalt and synthetic rubber, provision of gas storage capacity to Russians The EU has also suspended the broadcasting licenses of RT Arabic and Sputnik Arabic
Israel –
Balance of power and operations is shifting as Russia draws closer to Iran for support in the war in Ukraine. Israel has had an under the table agreement to coordinate with Russia — which largely controls Syrian airspace — in order to carry out strikes on Iranian/Hezbollah targets. Now that Russia is moving to supply Iran with fighter jets to Iran as part of an expanding military cooperation effort that has seen Tehran ship growing quantities of weaponry to Moscow for use in the invasion of Ukraine, this balance with Israel is becoming upended.
This is trending two ways. First, Israel is gradually opening up to supplying Ukraine with weapon systems. Second, Israel is preparing for potential Russian attempts at preventing Israeli interdiction of Iranian shipments – raising the concern for a direct Israeli-Russian confrontation over Syria.
Iran –
Iran will likely send air defense systems to Syria, Iranian state television reported Friday, a move apparently meant to protect against Israeli airstrikes.
“Syria needs to rebuild its air defense network and requires precision bombs for its fighter planes,” the Iranian state broadcaster said, according to Reuters.
“It is very likely that we will witness the supply by Iran of radars and defense missiles, such as the 15 Khordad system, to reinforce Syria’s air defenses,” it added.
OBSERVATION – Syrian S300/400 systems have had only marginal success against Israeli bombing missions against Iranian/Hezbollah targets in Syria. Iran is seeking more support to protect its operations to prepare for an eventual attack on Israel. Iran is losing billions of dollars in destroyed arms, munitions and material annually to Israeli strikes and is desperate to find ways to mitigate that.
**
Iran released a video of the new Iranian cruise missile named Paveh with a reported range of 1650 km.
Syria -
See Iran potentially suppling ADA systems above.
Turkey -
Quick note on the current death toll from the quake. Numbers of dead now exceed 50,000 and are still climbing.
I bought a washer last month (Speed Queen 500 - BEST washer I've ever had) -- the sales guy told me his company (which handles all brands) was planning on upping prices on everything 10% every two months... Now maybe he said that to get me to commit at the time but it had a real 'ring' of truth to it. Who knows but it doesn't seem inflation was transitory - back then or now...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Minnesota is looking to ban all new use of natural gas. This move would cause residential users drastically increased utility bills and create a scenario were thousands could be endangered during winter storms. The globalist elites don’t care, just culling the herd of useless sheeple.
Economy –
Former Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin is among the authors of the white paper that examines the history of central bank efforts to create disinflation.
Despite the sentiments of many current Fed officials that they can manage a “soft landing” while tackling high prices, the paper says that is unlikely to be the case.
“We find no instance in which a central-[bank]induced disinflation occurred without a recession,” said the paper, co-authored by economists Stephen Cecchetti, Michael Feroli, Peter Hooper and Kermit Schoenholtz.
The paper was presented Friday morning during a monetary policy forum presented by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
“Simulations of our baseline model suggest that the Fed will need to tighten policy significantly further to achieve its inflation objective by the end of 2025,” the researchers said.
“Even assuming stable inflation expectations, our analysis casts doubt on the ability of the Fed to engineer a soft landing in which inflation returns to the 2 percent target by the end of 2025 without a mild recession,” they added.
OBSERVATION - NOTE, 2025 given before this group anticipates anti-inflation ‘goals’ are reached and the Fed can loosen its policies. That is two+ years of back breaking high interest rates that may well do more damage to the economy than inflation.
Biden / Harris watch –
Observers note that biden has spent about 40% of his term in office on vacation.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Seattle has agreed to settle a lawsuit with business owners and residents over the city’s 2020 handling of the so-called autonomous zone protests originally dubbed the Capitol Hill Occupied Protest (CHOP).
Businesses and residents of Seattle’s Capitol Hill “will now be compensated for the City’s mishandling of CHOP that resulted in a significant increase in crime and even loss of life,” attorney Angelo Calfo said in a statement, according to The Seattle Times.
More than a dozen business owners and residents in the Capitol Hill neighborhood filed a lawsuit against the city over the city’s policies that “effectively authorized the actions of the CHOP participants,” according to the suit.
The city announced the settlement totals $3.65 million, which includes $600,000 in penalties for the deletion of thousands of texts by city leaders, including former Mayor Jenny Durkan, The Seattle Times reported.
OBSERVATION – The ‘chop’ area is still under pressure as an ‘autonomous’ zone with residual high crime and Antifa issues. The question is – will this be enough to cause businesses to return to the district or are they going to stay away due to residual crime at record levels.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The left continues to be in meltdown over the release of J6 videos to Tucker Carleson, but those on the right are upset as well, viewing Carleson as a choke point in getting these videos to the public and that he has his own motives in selective review of the converage.
I agree, get them out to more conservative outlets and don’t bottle them up via just one source that can be controlled/influenced by the MSM. (Yes, I did link Fox to the MSM)
Russia -
WAR WATCH - First Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Indicators suggest that Russia may launch another ballastic/cruise missile attack in the near future
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The intensity of fighting in the Bakhmut region – particularly on the north – exploded overnight with fierce fighting that some observers owe to Russia possibly committing reserve forces to force a breakthrough. Further north, Russia also appears to be trying to exploit recent gains to push northward out of the Soldare region toward Silversk.
Along the southern front, more reports that Russia is committing more reinforcements in its fight for Vuhledar. Overnight battles though indicate that Russia hasn’t learned anything, throwing armor across wide open fields and straight into minefields where these charges fall flat on their faces and infantry running to get out of the kill zone.
OUTLOOK –
Fog of war surrounding the fighting around Bahkmut has me concerned about the ability of Ukraine to maintain its defenses there much longer. I’m seeing some OSINT analysts noting Russian gains on the north with others saying these gains are a major breakout in the development. Who to believe. Russian milbloggers/propagandists that some OSINT folks monitor would be inclined to believe that the Russian hordes are pouring into the Bakhmut region and the battle is lost. Others that take a more conservative view – and IMHO a broader based intel view – note gains have been made and are watching to see Ukraine’s response to the action.
I think that Ukraine will be forced to withdraw from Bakhmut to prepared fall back positions as they have in the past. Ukraine will hold positions long enough to bleed Russia of men and resources making it more difficult for them to press past the objective.
I also think that Russia has thrown some of its reserve forces into the fight to regain face lost in that they couldn’t claim a major victory on the anniversary of the start of the war. Russia also sees that it is running out of time and that Ukraine isn’t being sucked into a larger defensive battle instead of preparing for an offensive. The current Russian offensive is a trifle compared to the last two by Ukraine that recaptured tens of thousands of square Kms of land in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.
OSINT analysts are evaluating a new tactical structure of the Russian forces roughly called an ‘assault battle group’. This is a major variation from the battalion task groups (BTG) from the start of the war. These new units are far more leg infantry oriented, with very little armor/tanks support. This is due to the extensive loss of armor during the course of the war. It is believed to be roughly based in part on Wagner Group organizations in their fight in Bakhmut.
By light, only a few tanks and a small number of APCs are assigned (many infantry riding on top) and mostly infantry. Some towed artillery and mortars.
This battalion tends to engage in company and smaller sized attacks. Lack of leadership has gotten worse, with officers being forced to micromanage the fight – making the unit very inflexible to battlefield changes.
Most of the infantry is composed of poorly trained and equipped conscripts. Medical support is crude, with wounded location noted for following medical teams (that often don’t get there).
If you guessed, I don’t think this adaptation is going to work very well for Russia either. It relies on human wave style attacks and very little tactics.
Final OUTLOOK note - indicators that Russia may be preparing for another ballistic / cruise missile barrage in the coming days. Naval and strategic bomber nets have been increasingly active - in the past this has served as precursors to strikes.
Misc of Note –
EPA has halted movement of contaminated water and soil from the East Palestine train wreck site, citing that the volumes are overwhelming authorized sites and indicating that EPA wants a better plan to address the goals and extent of this early clear-up effort. Pretty lame on the EPAs part. Also being noted that both the railroad and the EPA seem to be tiptoeing around the whole dioxin issue - the elephant in the room.
Black Swans
The WHO has been shouting warnings that the H5N1 strain of the bird flu that has been hammering poultry flocks around the world for the past couple years was going to make the jump to humans. Now the WHO is sounding the alarm over a string of human infections in Cambodia, indicating that the virus has made the jump.
Cambodia’s health ministry said the girl’s father had also tested positive for the H5N1 bird fly and 11 others had been tested. The girl who died had fallen ill a week earlier with a high fever, cough, and sore throat. She was from the rural Prey Veng province.
On Thursday, Health Minister Mam Bunheng said it was the first known human infection of the H5N1 strain in Cambodia since 2014, according to a report by the BBC.
The girl had been taken from her village to the children’s hospital in the capital Phnom Penh – but died shortly after her diagnosis. Officials have collected samples of several dead birds from near the girl’s village. Health officials have also warned residents against touching dead or sick birds.
WHO has recorded eight cases of human H5N1 infections since 2021, including in China, India, Spain, the UK, and the US.
OBSERVATION – There is still a lot of smoke surrounding the reported death and illnesses claimed to have been caused by the strain in Cambodia. Since the ebbing of the wuhan plandemic, the WHO and its cohorts, have been warning about a new, impending pandemic. It is too early to say if the virus has mutated enough to make the jump to humans or not, but in spite of the propaganda and fear mongering from the WHO, this could represent a real natural (or at worst, engineered) threat. I noted that the wuhan was spotted early in some of these obscure like report before exploding on the scene.