Posted on 09/11/2022 2:26:03 PM PDT by whyilovetexas111
Ukraine has made some impressive progress on the battlefield, but let us hold the applause for a moment: It’s too soon to tell whether Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive heralds a Ukrainian victory in the war with Russia, but the remarkably rapid Ukrainian advance on the one hand and the equally remarkable rapid retreat by the Russians on the other do testify to Ukrainian military prowess and, perhaps more critical, Russian military incompetence.
It should be amply clear by now that, expert expectations to the contrary, Russia cannot win the war. In fact, the irony is that Russian troops have responded to Ukraine’s Blitzkrieg in the same manner that Ukrainians were expected to respond to Russia’s February 24th offensive: by throwing down their arms and heading for the hills.
(Excerpt) Read more at 19fortyfive.com ...
“However, it worked in Japan after WWII. But Japan was so thoroughly defeated, and so stunned, they had no choice but to accept the occupation.”
You haven’t considered Emperor Hirohito.
For the first time ever he recorded a message to the civilian populace informing the country of the surrender and directing all soldiers, sailors, airmen and civilians to lay down all weapons and submit to the occupation of their homeland.
He then committed the unbelievable act of leaving the palace to visit General MacArthur. Never before had anything like that occurred. By his actions he was showing his country that even HE the Divine Emperor was under the authority of the victorious allied powers.
He then spent time touring the country giving speeches telling everyone to work with the occupation so a new Japan could rise from the ashes of their defeat.
Some politicians had advocated imprisoning the emperor for war crimes. If MacArthur had tried that we would have had to kill most of the Japanese population.
The backups may get tested here, but we’re talking about them also being EMP proof.
LOL “...I agree with Andrei Martyanov’s take–the Russians knew it was coming and chose to let the Ukrainians flood the zone in order to eventually hit the Ukrainian forces with a massive counter attack. “
That sounds just like President Biden’s plan in Afghanistan !
The Ukranians only won one of their counter offensives, and only because the Russians decided to leave the area to concentrate their forces elsewhere to the South.
The entire article is propaganda.
-SB
Define win?
Presumably the populations in Donetsk, Lukanstk, and Crimea will have a say as to who’s rule they will live under.
The end result is very likely to look like the starting result.
I completely agree.
“You haven’t considered Emperor Hirohito.”
I certainly have considered him. He knew full well that Japan was defeated, and had no chance of survival if it didn’t surrender. He went against some of his hardline military officers, and was almost deposed because of it. In mid-August, 1945, in the Kyujo Incident, there was an attempted coup by military hardliners, but it was foiled.
“I certainly have considered him. He knew full well that Japan was defeated, and had no chance of survival if it didn’t surrender.”
There was also an attempt to steal the recording he made explaining the surrender.
Usually Hirohito sat in on the military meetings but said nothing and rubber stamped whatever the Generals and Admirals wanted to do.
After the political class took a try at getting the military brass to accept the idea of surrender which was rejected, a Japanese bureaucrat, who I can’t remember, took the opportunity to ask the emperor what he thought they should do. Everyone was shocked when Hirohito said they should ask for terms of surrender.
I vaguely remember the coup attempt, been a long time since I read about that time period.
You have to admit that Hirohito helped make the occupation bloodless and successful. It also didn’t hurt that MacArthur was in charge. He had a slightly better understanding of the Asian mind.
he Ukrainians and NATO know that most of the ground war is being fought by Donbas militias, but do not want to inform the public of that because it undercuts their propaganda campaign to make this “invasion” all about Russia.
We also know that Russia is much better at deception than Ukraine and NATO. Ukraine did nothing to hide its intent to launch an attack in the Kherson region and also signaled it would attack around Kharkov. Russia? Helped the Donbas militias reinforce their forces around Kherson (and successfully beat back the Ukrainian attack causing massive Ukrainian losses). Russia also leaked information that it was sending huge armor and artillery reinforcements towards Kherson as that offensive got underway when, in reality, it organized a tactical withdrawal from the region and redeployed forces south to Donetsk.
There is one more salient fact–the Ukrainian offensive around Kharkov took place without any meaningful support from Ukrainian combat air or artillery. Why is that important? That means the Russian air force–both fixed wing and rotary wing–is unscathed and intact. Russian armor and artillery systems also were not destroyed. If they ain’t destroyed they can still fight and the Ukrainian troops do not have a large reserve of armor and artillery to protect them.
Ukraine and the western media blithely ignore this fact and are celebrating the limited Ukrainian advance as if it were the reincarnation of the Nazi blitzkrieg into France.
One final fact to take into account. Ukraine has incurred horrendous casualties over the last two and a half weeks of combat. Russia and the militias have far fewer losses. Russia has not tapped into its trained military reserve. Ukraine has no trained military reserve left. So, for all of you arm chair generals out there second guessing Russia’s command decisions, please explain how Ukraine comes out on top? I look forward to your answers.
“He’s lucky he’s in Russia. In Ukraine opposition parties are outlawed and the SBU would arrest and likely murder him for saying that on the air.”
Ukraine is banning pro-Russian parties for the same reason it’s arresting pro-Russian officials who’ve been (amongst other things) tipping off the enemy about Ukrainian positions and facilitating the occupation.
Are you speaking entirely from the rather envious position of being a citizen of a country that’s never in its entire existence had to repel a hostile military invasion with boots on the ground?
Granted, the USA has fought a war of independence, and has participated in over 100 wars outside its own borders, but the USA has never faced a situation like France, Belgium, Luxemburg, Poland, Ukraine, Jersey, or England has.
Pearl Harbor didn’t result in a Japanese occupation for the USA to repel so the USA never had to worry about the enablers of an occupation. 9/11 didn’t either. So this is a problem the USA has absolutely zero experience of.
But if you seriously think, in the event of a Russian (or any other) hostile invasion of the USA RESULTING IN OCCUPATION, the US Government would actively tolerate pro-invasion agents actively working for the occupying force inside both civilian government AND the defense forces, you’ve clearly forgotten all about the McCarthy era. Zelenskyy was dealing with a clear and present danger right in front of him because Ukraine had already been invaded and occupied; America was acting pre-emptively to prevent a future worst-case-scenario that might arise if “reds under the bed” were allowed to flourish in the open.
You also overlook another thing - several Nazi sponsoring parties that Russia had successfully argued were a big reason why they were so engaged in Ukraine were booted TOTALLY out of the Rada in the general election in 2019. Some of the parties Zelenskyy banned were the parties that Russia objected to - and which had already been routed in that election. He banned them to prevent their return stirring things up with Russia. Was he right to ban them or not? Was that the action of a president determined to piss Russia off or one who was determined to find practical ways to defuse tensions?
Swings and roundabouts - either you accept an inviolable Freedom of Speech which effectively means NAZI PARTIES IN ANY GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE ALLOWED EVEN IF THAT GIVES RUSSIA AN EXCUSE TO INVADE, or you take the pragmatic view that having Nazi sponsoring parties in Ukraine represented too big a threat to regional and global security for them to be actively tolerated.
Not very many miles from me, another tranche of several thousand Ukrainians are doing the (new and improved) five week training course. That’s one base in the UK out of at least three that I know of, doing the same thing.
The troops that did the shorter 3 week course (June-August) are now battle-experienced, but did suffer heavy casualties. The more recent, longer trained groups are the ones getting far more tactical support and they’re the ones making the big inroads over the last few days.
Within the next month, you’ll see another 10-20k Ukrainian troops arriving from at least six countries, all of them having had the five week training and being far better kitted out than rapidly mobilised conscripts at the start of the campaign. They’re also trained with the mindset of operational independence - they get broad orders directly passed down a chain of command but how they proceed on the ground is determined by the facts in front of them.
At the same time, Russian conscripts are worn out, starved, dressed like tramps, and are hitting the ground with 2 weeks of training and embedded into a “don’t think, just follow orders” mindset with other groups like the Chechens policing any refusal to follow the orders even if the orders are completely inappropriate to the circumstances.
I wouldn’t put money on Russia improving its position.
When the Russian invaders are pushed out of Kherson next, how will you spin that result? I’m interested how you perceive that before it actually happens. Would you acknowledge it as a Russian defeat, or try to present it as brilliant maneuver?
The only one who can end this war is Putin.
Nope, not going to happen. Putin’s army doesn’t have the capability to do so for Ukraine west of the Dnieper
You guys are going to lose Kherson soon
Since February kazan has been promising that Ukraine will surrender in 2 weeks.
Kazan “So, was Russia caught by surprise? “
Yes. Yes they were
Excellent answer
“You have to admit that Hirohito helped make the occupation bloodless and successful. It also didn’t hurt that MacArthur was in charge. He had a slightly better understanding of the Asian mind.”
I’ve never denied it.
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