Posted on 09/11/2022 2:26:03 PM PDT by whyilovetexas111
Ukraine has made some impressive progress on the battlefield, but let us hold the applause for a moment: It’s too soon to tell whether Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive heralds a Ukrainian victory in the war with Russia, but the remarkably rapid Ukrainian advance on the one hand and the equally remarkable rapid retreat by the Russians on the other do testify to Ukrainian military prowess and, perhaps more critical, Russian military incompetence.
It should be amply clear by now that, expert expectations to the contrary, Russia cannot win the war. In fact, the irony is that Russian troops have responded to Ukraine’s Blitzkrieg in the same manner that Ukrainians were expected to respond to Russia’s February 24th offensive: by throwing down their arms and heading for the hills.
(Excerpt) Read more at 19fortyfive.com ...
A EMP is possible, throughout history Russia has used a scorched earth policy, it would not surprise me if they come to the conclusion that they are losing that they attack a nuclear power plant’s core to poison the ground. Or they could use a chemical or bioweapon (anthrax?) to accomplish the same thing.
“”the Russians knew it was coming and chose to let the Ukrainians flood the zone in order to eventually hit the Ukrainian forces with a massive counter attack.””
Now that the Russians have drawn the Ukrainians into the locations they wanted them in, when do you anticipate the massive counterattack?
“backup systems would lose power immediately.”
Those backup systems are shielded. Or at least supposed to be-never know with those stupid clowns over there.
Author needs to review what constituted a “blitzkrieg”. I don’t think Ukraine is employing all the necessary components to qualify calling it blitzkrieg.
I’m seeing plenty.
“Winning an occupation takes... BRUTALITY far beyond nearly any modern nation’s stomach.”
Generally, that’s true.
However, it worked in Japan after WWII. But Japan was so thoroughly defeated, and so stunned, they had no choice but to accept the occupation. At that, we were pretty benevolent as far as occupiers go; which is actually an abnormality under such circumstances.
My Post#46 addresses that. But that occupation was not the norm.
How totally ridiculous. None of this is anywhere near over. Things are going to heat up
————-
Well said. Russian war against NATO/ NATO war with Russia. Ukies given NATO arms, NATO training, NATO intelligence, NATO strategy, NATO satellite imaging, Western financing, etc….meanwhile the West’s economies are collapsing, Ruble continues to rise, Russian inflation decreasing, Russia raking in the dough, and the West goes deeper into debt,….
Russia is in a very dangerous position following the Ukrainian blitz.
First, OSINT and other analysts are swamped trying to keep up with the massive amounts of abandoned equipment and material. These losses will be virtually impossible for Russia to make up in the near and medium term (years).
Thrown into this maelstrom were many new units fresh out of their 30 day training - completely unprepared for the can of whoop a$$ slammed into them. Their manpower has been severely depleted and if Russia wants to win, they will have to declare war to authorize a general mobilization to fill the ranks.
Third - Russia doesn’t dare redeploy forces arrayed against the ongoing Ukrainian offensive in Kherson. It now seems clear to me at least that the actions there were deliberately designed to draw Russia into a trap in Kharkiv and allow HIMARS and partisan actions to rip apart Russian Cps, logistic and troop concentrations in Kherson. The threat for a real second blitzkrieg is there, and Ukraine has maintained pressure - pushing Russian forces back.
Fourth - putin will be cancelling generals right and left and the overall control of the Russian armed forces will be in turmoil for a while. With all the political infighting and finger pointing at the kremlin, battlefield generals will be left to essentially fend for themselves as logistics lines have been cut of from their use in Ukraine.
Fifth - logistics. In addition to the material loss, the number of ways to ship stuff into their areas have been decimated. Russia relies heavily on rail, possessing few trucks for moving stuff. Currently the only secure route into the battle zone is via Crimea over the Kersch Bridge. Hence the threat by a Ukrainian blitz in Kherson cutting land supply routes off as well.
Basically Russia got out thought, out maneuvered and out fought and just doesn’t have the forces necessary to launch any major counter attack to reclaim ground lost. The Donbas campaign is over and Russia may lose a big chunk of Luhansk Oblast they captured at the end of July. Russia has no reserves to throw into the effort and its air force is increasingly impotent to support ground operations and the Black Sea fleet trying to stay out of range of Ukrainian anti ship missiles.
Counting every backup system at every plant to work simultaneously would be a rather tall ask anywhere. In awar zone, it's a real long shot.
Why? Troops in the field are not dependent on civilian power and water.
It's just the usual useless Russian vindictiveness. Much of their weaponry is being shipped from abroad (not to mention their copious new supplies acquired from Russian forces). The Ukrainians aren't stupid, which means repair and production facilities probably have alternative power sources.
The civilians will be hard hit, but probably not for long. We hammered German cities far harder, and when troops rolled into the Ruhr many factories were still running.
Western Europe could use fuel injectors and vaporizers to vaporize gasoline to run power plants.
Oil heat could be used to heat European homes. Oil-based residential heating used to be common in the Northeastern US. My uncle paid 12 cents per gallon in 1948.
My house had oil heat up to 1988. I switched to propane, then nat gas was available.
Now leftys want to force me to all electric.
The Ukrainians are advancing in areas across a river.
If the Russians take out the bridges, the Ukrainian troops may have their supply lines cut.
The Russians seem to be giving up territory too easily.
Yeah... I have never believed anything about this. I do not trust the media or our gvt.
that is exactly how to win a war though (what we did by nuking Japan)
You totally destroy a city and say surrender or we will do this again. This is exactly how Alexander the Great defeated so many enemies. You just kill everyone in the first city, and threaten to do the same to the next.
#1. What Russian forces are available? Russia has not started a general mobilization. They would have to draw forces from positions inside Russia and redeploy them, and then try to integrate them into a confused combat zone.
#2. How fast can they get to Ukraine? Russia does not have Star Trek transporters. They will use planes and trains and that will take time Russia does not have.
#3. How is Russia going to support them? Russia is considered to have a hard upper limit of 180,000 to 200,000 soldiers it can deploy to Ukraine, no more. Everything sent to Ukraine must be supported.
#4. Who is going to lead the Russian response? Russia has no central command. There is a split leadership between Northern and Southern commands. The Russian army has no NCO corps and limits initiative by lower ranking officers. The Russian command, control and leadership are making the rout worse for them right now.
#5. What is the plan that is supposed to come together? For Russia to turn this around would be a miracle of military science. No one has stated what that is or any part of it yet.
For all the talk of Russia will turn this around no one has a clue how it is even possible, including the Russian army.
“that is exactly how to win a war though (what we did by nuking Japan).”
Well, it’s sure an effective way.
And 10 minutes after this article is posted, 50% of ukrainian power generation is destroyed. Enjoy the on coming winter.
Every single one of those backup systems are tested once a week.
But that is here, not there.
Of course, they do not have to worry about it getting flooded like in Japan I guess.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.