he Ukrainians and NATO know that most of the ground war is being fought by Donbas militias, but do not want to inform the public of that because it undercuts their propaganda campaign to make this “invasion” all about Russia.
We also know that Russia is much better at deception than Ukraine and NATO. Ukraine did nothing to hide its intent to launch an attack in the Kherson region and also signaled it would attack around Kharkov. Russia? Helped the Donbas militias reinforce their forces around Kherson (and successfully beat back the Ukrainian attack causing massive Ukrainian losses). Russia also leaked information that it was sending huge armor and artillery reinforcements towards Kherson as that offensive got underway when, in reality, it organized a tactical withdrawal from the region and redeployed forces south to Donetsk.
There is one more salient fact–the Ukrainian offensive around Kharkov took place without any meaningful support from Ukrainian combat air or artillery. Why is that important? That means the Russian air force–both fixed wing and rotary wing–is unscathed and intact. Russian armor and artillery systems also were not destroyed. If they ain’t destroyed they can still fight and the Ukrainian troops do not have a large reserve of armor and artillery to protect them.
Ukraine and the western media blithely ignore this fact and are celebrating the limited Ukrainian advance as if it were the reincarnation of the Nazi blitzkrieg into France.
One final fact to take into account. Ukraine has incurred horrendous casualties over the last two and a half weeks of combat. Russia and the militias have far fewer losses. Russia has not tapped into its trained military reserve. Ukraine has no trained military reserve left. So, for all of you arm chair generals out there second guessing Russia’s command decisions, please explain how Ukraine comes out on top? I look forward to your answers.
Not very many miles from me, another tranche of several thousand Ukrainians are doing the (new and improved) five week training course. That’s one base in the UK out of at least three that I know of, doing the same thing.
The troops that did the shorter 3 week course (June-August) are now battle-experienced, but did suffer heavy casualties. The more recent, longer trained groups are the ones getting far more tactical support and they’re the ones making the big inroads over the last few days.
Within the next month, you’ll see another 10-20k Ukrainian troops arriving from at least six countries, all of them having had the five week training and being far better kitted out than rapidly mobilised conscripts at the start of the campaign. They’re also trained with the mindset of operational independence - they get broad orders directly passed down a chain of command but how they proceed on the ground is determined by the facts in front of them.
At the same time, Russian conscripts are worn out, starved, dressed like tramps, and are hitting the ground with 2 weeks of training and embedded into a “don’t think, just follow orders” mindset with other groups like the Chechens policing any refusal to follow the orders even if the orders are completely inappropriate to the circumstances.
I wouldn’t put money on Russia improving its position.