Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

More of the same it appears.

Globalism / Great Reset -

New Zealand has proposed taxing the greenhouse gasses that farm animals produce from burping and urinating in a bid to tackle climate change.
The world-first scheme will see farmers paying for agricultural emissions in some form by 2025.
The country’s farming industry accounts for about half of its emissions.
But farmers have been quick to criticise the plan, with one lobby group saying it would “rip the guts out of small-town New Zealand”.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said money raised from the proposed levy will be pumped back into the industry to finance new technologies, research and incentive payments for farmers.

OBSERVATION - Starvation in the name of saving mankind …..

Economy -

The third largest railroad union rejected its deal with freight railroads Monday — renewing the possibility of a strike that could cripple the economy — but before that could happen both sides will return to the bargaining table.
About 56% of the track maintenance workers represented by the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division union who voted opposed the five-year contract even though it included 24% raises and $5,000 in bonuses.

OBSERVATION - All unions have to agree, else the deal is off and a strike could happen. A strike - in conjunction with very limited barge traffic and congestion at ports would have a very harsh effect on the economy. The failed vote means negotiations will continue under “status quo” conditions. According to the statement, union members won’t pursue a strike at least until 19 November. This would push it past the midterms, though by a whisker and could still weigh heavily on voter opinions.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said the central bank is holding fast in its commitment to bring down inflation even if it means people losing their jobs.
Speaking three weeks before the Fed is expected to approve its fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase, the central bank official told CNBC he hopes to minimize economic damage.
“Ultimately, inflation is the most important thing to get under control. That’s job-one,” Evans said during a live “Squawk on the Street” interview. “Price stability sets the stage for stronger growth in the future.”(nbc news)

OBSERVATION - It will result in more than just lost jobs, but their aggressive policy continues to threaten an even deeper recession judging by how big businesses are working to prepare.

In related, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned last week that even though the Federal Reserve risks triggering a “financially traumatic event,” they should keep tightening monetary conditions to combat inflation.

OBSERVATION - Fedspeak - “financially traumatic event,” what the heck does that mean? Some think he is implying a 2008 like crash that developed into a combination depression with inflation. More related - IMF (GGR underlings) begin meetings this week - controlling inflation is high on their agenda.

Target announced on Monday that they’re offering a pre-Black Friday sale, featuring half-price electronics and toys, while Walmart is also running a sale this week. Amazon announced they’d be running another Prime Day later this month for the same reasons, and have already opened up Prime Exclusives.

OBSERVATION - Excess stockage is costing companies a bundle and in the face of a train wreck that the recession will bring will hammer these companies. Ive been noting these sales for a number of months now, and as the Christmas season is here (local Walmart fully stocked with Christmas stuff), time to look for bargains on essentials is now.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

PayPal’s mea culpa was more an obfuscation designed to deflect criticism. PayPal’s current Acceptable Use Policy still threatens $2,500 fines per infraction for promoting “hate” and “intolerance” — language the Left regularly uses to characterize (and demonize) speech that is critical of its insane policies. PayPal stock took a big hit again yesterday.

Cyber Warfare -

Reports of a number of significant cyber attacks across the US including several major airports. Killnet the pro Russian hacking group has claimed most of these attacks. Disruptions at airports were or are reportedly minimal with any cyber security breach also reported as temporary and minimal.

OBSERVATION - Some aspects seemed timed to the missile strikes yesterday.

China -

Taiwan tracked 26 Chinese military aircraft, and 4 naval ships around country.

OBSERVATION - As stated before, China has shifted to a new phase in this harassment - one designed to lull Taiwan into a false sense of a new normalcy - an act that can cover up an actual invasion.

Communist Party congress that opened Sunday in Beijing and is poised to grant the Chinese president and party general secretary an unprecedented third five-year term in office despite a slowing economy and mounting domestic unrest over his zero-COVID health restrictions.

OBSERVATION - So far, none of China’s woes is set to derail Xi’s move to unprecedented power.

North/South Korea -

North Korea claims 150 combat aircraft were involved in a large-scale combined air-attack drill on 8 Oct. Su-25, MiG-29, MiG-23, MiG-21 & Mig-19.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces are in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. Infighting between putin supporters, talking heads/milbloggers, mercenary leadership and Kremlin generals will only serve to create more problems in pursuing the fight. New conscripts are showing up at the front with absolutely no training or preparation .

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Two of Russia’s biggest allies, China and India, are calling on President Vladimir Putin to “de-escalate” the eight-month long conflict. “All countries deserve respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity,” The New York Times reported Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s Foreign Ministry, telling reporters at a briefing Monday. “Support should be given to all efforts that are conducive to peacefully resolving the crisis.”

India’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Arindam Bagchi said in the Times report that New Delhi would offer support for efforts to calm the fighting. “India is deeply concerned at the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, including targeting of infrastructure and deaths of civilians,” the Times reported Bagchi saying.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 50s and some rain over the 10 day forecast period. Images on social media show soil conditions starting to revert to Ukrainian mud (Bezdorizhzhia). Bezdorizhzhia pretty much directly translates as “roadlessness”

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian army conducted numerous missile strikes overnight in a continuation of its missile blitz across the country, though smaller than yesterday’s. Ukrainian air defense reports that it shot down 46 cruse missiles and 27 drones, according to the General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine in its morning report. Numerous cities are facing over outages and other infrastructure issues from the missile strikes.

Ukraine continues to regain terrain while Russia continues to try to capture Bakhmut.

Kyiv front ——
More missiles overnight

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporatic artillery across the sector.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Luhansk Oblast east of the Oskil River in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Heavy fighting continued around Bakhmut with reports now that Russia has pushed Ukrainian forces back in the south from Zaitseve and Vesela Dolyna. Heavy fighting continues in this region.

Scattered artillery westward along the LOC to Zaporizhzhia

Crimean front ———
Scattered Russian artillery along the LOC. Ukranian forces continue to press southward towards Kherson.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
More missiles struck western sand central areas of Ukraine overnight. Russia attacked Ladyzhyn Power Plant with drones. Russian air/missile strikes concentrated mostly on the Zaporizhzhia region again, and another two power stations in the west and central regions.

Russian Territory -—
Governor of Belgorod region orders 2 weeks of remote schools for students.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
Explosions were reported in Dzhankoi, Crimea

OUTLOOK ——
Other than the terror angle, the missiles have done little to quench the morale of the Ukrainians or stem the support from western nations.

Expect Ukraine to continue its offensive operations in the east and south.

Item well worth monitoring is the combining of Russian soldiers and Belarus military forces on the western border of Belarus and Ukraine. See my discussion on potential options below.

Belarus -

Lukashenka ordered combat readiness check of Armed Forces of Belarus.
Reports of soldiers are entering Belarus by the trainload. They’re traveling in cattle cars - just a huge quantity. Just waves of trains arriving.

OBSERVATION - Some of this ‘joint’ readiness agreement may be becoming clear. It is likely that these ‘soldiers’ are recent conscripts that will be given a minimum of training on Belarus equipment, then use that equipment for an attack into western Ukraine towards Lviv and supply lines coming from Poland. Thus Lukashenka can keep his own forces out of the combat (and protect his rear end in Belarus) while supporting Russian war effort. Notice that it is troops ONLY, and no equipment. Belarus units who’s equipment they might take are from his better trained elements - likely with the better maintained armor/tanks.

This potential attack has been bandied about ever since significant supples started pouring in from the west and Russian missile strikes were unable to interdict and stop the flow. IMHO, if Russia launches this attack, it would be in the hopes of diverting enough resources and men away from Kherson and eastern offensives to force a pause, which would give them some time to reman, rearm and prepare defenses. The success of this objective according to some analysts is very shaky, very defensible Ukrainian terrain would not require a large force to face-off against an ill trained and poorly prepared Russian or or even Belarus force - estimated to be some where in the range of 6 BTGs and some air borne / special ops.

Belarus is judged to have the most poorly trained army in Europe. Throwing unmotivated and untrained Russians on to Belarus equipment for an invasion (one that Ukraine has already done battle field preparations for) can only turn out ugly for the Russians. Poland and the Baltic nations may well use a Belarus invasion for their own counter strike, thus the look at russians taking Belarus equipment to war instead.

Poland -

Poland is calling on its citizens to leave Belarus immediately.

Israel -

Israeli Prime Minister Lapid announced Israel accepts the U.S. proposal for a maritime border agreement with Lebanon. The Israeli security cabinet and the full government will convene tomorrow to approve it. PM Lapid stated “The maritime border demarcation agreement with Lebanon meets Israel’s economic and political demands”
Part of the agreement that has brought criticism from within Israel is Lapid’s initial agreement to territorial concessions to Lebanon in the gas fields off the country’s Mediterranean coast.

OBSERVATION - Lapid’s concessions could be seen as a sign of weakness — very fatal when dealing with moslems.

Iran -

Riots continue into their fourth week. Increasingly violent clashes between protestors and govt forces. Other sectors of the nation joining the protests. Oil industry workers have now joined the protests as well as the merchants. These two groups are refusing to work as well as joining protests. This has not happened since the 1979 uprising that overthrew the monarchy. It was the oil industry workers and merchants who made the difference then and that seems to be happening. The current protests are also including more anti-government factions.

OBSERVATION - The growing base supporting the protestors is becoming a grave concern for the imans. Violence by IRGC and affiliated elements is not stopping the protests, and is starting to appear to be galvanizing them.

The third of three cascades advanced IR-6 centrifuges recently installed at Natanz has now come onstream, a new IAEA report says, adding Iran had informed the agency it plans to add an extra three cascades of IR-2m centrifuges.

OBSERVATION - The clock keeps ticking and the hands get closer to midnight for Iran. With the installation of these newest centrifuges, the capability to refine weapons grade Uranium in a short time has improved.

Lebanon -

Reuters, citing Lebanese officials: Hezbollah has agreed to the maritime border demarcation agreement with Israel.

Lebanese Energy Minister Walid Fayyad says TotalEnergies will begin process of exploring for gas in Lebanese waters as soon as deal on maritime border with Israel is concluded. Comments come after meeting with senior Total delegation

Syria -

Russia escalating lately attacks against Greater Idlib. RuAF bombed this morning area of Zayniah in the W. Idlib province

Black Swans -

US-bound travelers who have been to Uganda within the previous 21 days will be redirected to five major American airports to screen for Ebola, after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Thursday issued an alert to healthcare workers to raise awareness about the current outbreak.

OBSERVATION - Ebola scare raised it’s head now. Don’t see this as a major threat as our environment is not very conducive to transmission here - too cold from what I hear.

Hump day . ..

Heads up - Thursday’s post may be a wash as I’ll be on the road again.

Globalism / Great Reset -

Citing unanticipatedly broad and persistent inflationary pressures, the International Monetary fund has cut its global growth projections for 2023, saying,” The worst is yet to come.” IMF chief economist Pierre-Oliver Gourinchas said 2023 would see a “broad-base” slowdown with the contractions of a third of the top economies, with the U.S., China, and euro-zone economies expected to “stall.” Goruinchas added that now was the time for people to “batten down the hatches” and prepare for difficulties as “2023 will feel like a recession.” (FO)

OBSERVATION - I think tis is an understatement, IMF is seeing something bad and is trying to spin it. It is exactly the kind economic turmoil the GGR is seeking to trigger it Great Reset.

Wuhan virus -

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will not release its review of post-COVID-19-vaccination heart inflammation. The CDC has been performing abstractions on reports of post-vaccination myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System.
But the agency is saying that federal law prevents it from releasing the results.
The abstractions “are considered medical records which are withheld in full from disclosure,” the CDC told The Epoch Times in a recent letter, responding to a Freedom of Information Act request.

OBSERVATION - this information is potentially damning to the CDC and eventually Phfzer/Modnera. The courts will likely rule against the CDC, eventually. Until then they will try to keep a tight lid on this. However, if you’ve been monitoring this plandemic, the link has been exposed for a while now. What this does is demonstrate govt complacency in that THEY recognized it and didn’t do anything until outside analysis forced them to.

Pfizer executive Janine Small admitted to the European Parliament with a laugh that the company did not test if its COVID-19 vaccine stopped transmission of the virus before the vaccine was put on the market. In a video released by Dutch Member of the European Parliament Rob Roos, he remarks, emphasized the importance of this admission. “This removes the entire legal basis for the COVID passport, the COVID passport that led to massive institutional discrimination as people lost access to essential parts of society,” Roos said. “I find this to be shocking, even criminal.”

OBSERVATION - Under the US emergency use authorization IIRC, Phizer is shielded from lawsuits unless there was fraud involved. More and more, statements like and other previously hidden reports are laying the foundation here for just such a claim of fraud. Tied tightly to the hip are fauci et al and the collusion to keep this information under wraps and willfully mislead the public.

Economy -

According to data from Freightwaves, over the summer, import volumes to the US began dropping off a cliff, indicating that consumer demand was indeed being affected by inflation/stagflation. Inbound containers have dropped over 36% since May 24. Now, trans-pacific shipping rates have also plunged at least 75%. The huge decline in volumes and shipping rates signal an important shift in the US economy and are a warning of changes to come. Reduction in shipping reflects the buildup of inventory seen in stores today.

OBSERVATION - Analysts viewing this decline as a reflection of companies backing off production / inventories in anticipation of a recession. WhatI see being hotly debated is the intensity/depth of the recession as well as other compounding factors

NOTE - EARNINGS REPORTS will be coming out and they should give an eye to the transjectory of the economy for the coming months.

Shortages in the Californian tomato crop due to the drought are coming forward. As a major producer, higher prices will once again reverberate through the food supply in the form of higher prices.

Biden / Harris watch -

In a CNN interview, biden was asked - Q: “Should the American people prepare for a recession?”
BIDEN: “No...I don’t think there will be a recession. If it is, it’ll be a very slight recession.”

OBSERVATION - Fundamentally, we are in a technical recession. But never forget, this is the administration that told us repeatedly that the inflation we are experiencing is only ‘transitory’.

CW2/Domestic violence -

Since 2020, the armament of the Antifa affiliated groups has evolved from shotguns/bolt action rifles, to AR-15 platforms and full kit. During this same period leftist gun groups like the The Socialist Rifle Association, John Brown Gun Clubs, Redneck Revolt, and others have grown and gotten more sophisticated, including training by former military. The days when we could laugh this element of, now we need to recognize this as a real threat, particularly in urban settings.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

White House officials confirmed they’re reviewing a request from Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry to send U.S. or UN troops to help quell unrest.

China -

Xi’s third term as president looking to be in the bag, baggage from his current tenure continues to hit the country. The IMF has cut its growth forecasts for China Tuesday, saying China’s zero-COVID policies and nearly collapsed property market will significantly slow growth through the end of 2023.

OBSERVATION - The economic chickens will eventually come home to roost for Xi and China.

Japan -

Japan’s 10-year government bonds untraded for 3rd straight session, the first time ever, per Bloomberg. Concerns are Japan’s ability to repay.

OBSERVATION - From what I read, the fall of the yen is due to the aggressive rated increases by the Fed which have strengthened the dollar overseas. The smart guys say this is an indication to expect further devaluation of the Japanese yen. This is also not a problem isolated to Japan, but similar is affecting other countries - especially in Europe.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

NUKE WATCH -
Both UK and U.S intelligence continue to say there are no indications Russia is preparing to use any nuclear weapons.

Kerch Bridge update -
Four days since the attack and reports are that no trains have been observed on the Kerch Bridge. This would indicate no (military) supplies for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia since 4 days, at least not in large quantities.

Logistics -
- The Russian Federation is likely extracting ammunition and other materiel from Belarusian storage bases.
- There are reports Russia has ordered another 2,000 plus Iranian-made Shahed UAVs.
- There are unconfirmed reports and indications Russia’s resupply of Kalibr missiles is problematic and active quantities low, impacting used by Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea.

Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia’s missile assault is winding down with only 29 missiles launched overnight.
Ukraine continues to regain terrain, although at a slower pace while Russia continues to try to capture Bakhmut.

Kyiv front ——
More missiles overnight

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporatic artillery across the sector.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Luhansk Oblast east of the Oskil River in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna. Ukraine forces have gained artillery control of major roads between Svatove and Kreminna

Donetsk Oblast ——
Heavy fighting continues in this region with Ukrainian military repelling Russian attacks near Mykolaivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Mayorsk, Pervomaiske, and Krasnohorivka,

Scattered artillery westward along the LOC to Zaporizhzhia.

Russian forces are constructing significant defensive positions in the western Luhansk regions including large very wide trench barriers, concrete obstacles and minefields.

Crimean front ———
Scattered Russian artillery along the LOC. Ukranian forces continue to press southward towards Kherson with claims of liberating Novovasylivka, Novohryhorivka, Nova Kamianka, Tryfonivka and Chervone in Beryslav district of Kherson region.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
More missile/drone atttacks overnight.

Russian Territory -—
Air defense activity was noted over the Belgorod area.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
There are reports that partisan cells targeted a Russian administrative chief yesterday in an assassination style shooting near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant, with reports he was hospitalized in a critical condition.

OUTLOOK ——
While Ukraine will continue gaining in the east and south, I expect progress to slow as they work to get their logistics to keep up with the advance. Success in the east has really put pressure on Russian forces there already suffering from lack of logistics support. Same in the south.

Belarus remains in the news, but if the reports that Russia is draining them of their ammo and armor are correct, then the notion that Russian forces are setting conditions for a ground attack against Ukraine from Belarus becomes improbable. OSINT and government intel agencies don’t see an invasion from the north in the near term. One alternative is that Russia is using the joint operation to train the conscripts. When that training’s over - in about a month, then the risk of an attack from the north grows, with Russian forces taking Belarus equiptment while leaving Belrusian military behind to protect the regime.

Belarus -

Belarus says troops deployed alongside Russian forces is ‘purely defensive’

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Europe / NATO General -

Four Russian fighter jets were intercepted and forced to return to base after they infringed on Polish air space, according to Italy’s air force.
Aeronautica Militare announced that the squadron took off from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, and flew an aggressive path which took them through Polish skies - though the post did not specify when the infringement occurred.
Italy quickly scrambled four Eurofighter Typhoon jets in response which took off from Poland’s Malbork air base and intercepted the Russian aircraft, ‘forcing’ them to return back to Kaliningrad.

OBSERVATION - Very dangerous action by the Russians, which could result in a shoot down. Provocations like this could start a war between Russia and NATO.

Iran -

Protests continue as does internet disruptions, believed to be a tool being used by the regime to limit coordination between protestors. Protests are the heaviest in Kurds portions of the country (the girl killed was kurdish) with the most violence by govt forces reported

Iraq -

Fighting between pro- and anti- Iranian militias reported around Basra.

Saudi Arabia -

Biden administration cancelled a meeting of the US-GCC Working Group on Iran, according to a letter obtained by news platform Semafor. The meeting that was reportedly cancelled was the US-GCC Working Group on Iran, which would have focused on integrated air and missile defense.
The cancelling of the meeting appears to be a major follow-through of the administration’s announcement earlier on Tuesday, when national security spokesman John Kirby said the US would be reviewing its relationship with Saudi Arabia, following a decision by Opec+ to cut the production of oil by two million barrels a day.
“I would expect that the multilateral, mid-level engagements you’re referring to will be rescheduled at some point,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said in response to a reporter’s question during a news briefing on Tuesday. “This is a good time to reevaluate” the relationship with Saudi Arabia, Kirby told reporters on Tuesday.

OBSERVATION - Biden said there would be ‘consequences’ to OPEC+ decreasing production and now it is shoeing itself via pulling out of integrated air and missile defense talks. These talks are critical in coordinating efforts to keep Iran corralled in if they obtain nuclear weapons as well as addressing regional threats by the Houthi.

Was able to get an update done before hitting the road. Good thing too, much hitting the fan today.

Globalism / Great Reset -

The head of the U.N. weather agency says the war in Ukraine “may be seen as a blessing” from a climate perspective because it is accelerating the development of and investment in green energies over the longer term — even though fossil fuels are being used at a time of high demand now.
The comments from Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, came as the world is facing a shortfall in energy needs — prompted in part by economic sanctions against key oil and natural gas producer Russia — and prices for fossil fuels have risen.
Taalas acknowledged that the war in Ukraine has been a “shock for the European energy sector,” and has prompted an upturn in the use of fossil energies. From the five- to 10-year timescale, it’s clear that this war in Ukraine will speed up our consumption of fossil energy, and it’s speeding up this green transition,” Taalas said.
“So we are going to invest much more in renewable energy, energy-saving solutions,” and some small-scale nuclear reactors are likely to come online by 2030 as “part of the solution,” he said.
“So from climate perspective, the war in Ukraine may be seen as a blessing,” Taalas added.
Taalas was speaking as WMO issued a new report that said the supply of electricity from cleaner sources of energy needs to double within the next eight years to curb an increase in global temperatures.

OBSERVATION - SMH, these people are completely nuts. The apparently see going back into the dark ages a good thing, with shorter life expectancy, perpetual hunger (except for elites like them), continued wars over resources.

IMHO - Tulsi Gabbard’s stinging rebuke of the progressive democrat party is one for the books, however, remember she is a scorpion and not one of us. She remains a graduate of WEF’s seminar for leaders and continues to be a supporter of its causes and goals.

Economy -

BREAKING - According to data released this morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) prices rose 8.2% for September which is up 0.4% month over month, an acceleration from August’s 0.1% and July’s 0.0%. Previous hopes that the Fed had turned the corner on inflation are over. Core CPI, or prices minus food and energy, is up 0.6% month over month, the same as last month. Food prices are up 0.8% month over month. Food at home (from the grocery store) is up 13% over the past year, while food away from home (restaurants) is up 8.5% over the past year.

This follows the Producer price inflation report yesterday where prices have risen by 0.4% to 8.5% in September — more than expected as inflation persists.

The increase in CPI is even more concerning given the slight decrease energy costs (gasoline) and commodities. Now both of those categories are increasing once again - and will further impact September’s numbers.

EXPECT another 75 basis point increase in the prime by the Feds later this year at their next meeting.

(FO) Even Fed officials acknowledge the risks that further rate hikes will impose on foreign currencies and bond markets. Last week, Richmond Fed Bank President Thomas Barkin used the term “financial contagion” to describe the risk. What’s happening now is that foreign central banks are being forced to buy bonds to keep yields down. When bond demand falls, bond issuers have to increase yields to attract buyers, otherwise there is no bond issuance to fund governments, corporations, or anyone else issuing bonds. Higher yields threaten financial stability because they make servicing debt more expensive. The worst-case scenario is that the rush to sell bonds outweighs the central banks’ ability or willingness to buy the bonds, and you get a bond market crash. Bank of England and the Bank of Japan have narrowly adverted such a scenario, but are not out of the woods yet. They are not the only central banks in this situation it is global and pose an impending global financial crisis.

Finally , the Fed in their September report are concerned that a wage-price spiral may be forming. “A number of participants commented that a wage-price spiral had not yet developed but cited its possible emergence as a risk.” The wage-price spiral occurs when wages increase, which leads to increased spending, which leads to increased price inflation, which leads to higher wages to keep pace with the inflation.

OBSERVATION - These indicators point to the development of even more severe economic conditions going into and perhaps through 2023. Definitely does not bode well for the democrats at the midterm polls.

Forecasts for soybean harvests in the U.S. were reduced by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, resulting in more concerns over tight global inventories. Corn forecasts also fell, renewing scrutiny over food shortages next year.

OBSERVATION- Soybeans are a critical crop for many. One aspect that has caught my personal attention has been the price increase on Textured Vegetable Protein (TVP) i buy in bulk at my local Winco. Prices used to be under a dollar a couple years and now are approaching 4 dollars/ pound. Cant even get imitation bacon bits in bulk (flavored TVP). PM me for why TVP is important for my food pantry.

Invasion of Illegals -

Just hours before Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas joined a White House press conference during which a story of Border Patrol agents supposedly “whipping” migrants was shared, it has been revealed that he was informed that the allegations had been debunked.

The email, obtained by the Heritage Foundation via a Freedom of Information Act request (FOIA), shows assistant secretary of DHS public affairs, Marsha Espinosa, notifying Mayorkas and other DHS leadership of a news article that revealed that the photographer who took the images in question did not see any whipping, after President Joe Biden claimed otherwise earlier that day. In her message, Espinosa highlighted the comments where the photographer directly said that he did not witness whipping.

OBSERVATION - Mayorkas is one of the personifications of evil in the biden regime. He ranks second only to Fauci among those most deserving of jail time.

In a record-breaking year for illegal immigration, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is finally doing something about it, but only as it applies to Venezuelans. “Venezuelans should not travel to Mexico to pursue entry into the United States,” the Department of Homeland Security says.
“Effective immediately, Venezuelans who enter the United States between ports of entry, without authorization, will be returned to Mexico,” DHS said.
The effort to reduce “irregular migration of Venezuelans” includes a new process to “lawfully and safely bring up to 24,000 qualifying Venezuelans into the United States,” but only after they are vetted beforehand. “Venezuelans approved via this process will be authorized on a case-by-case basis to travel to the United States by air directly to an interior port of entry, thus relieving pressure at the border. Once in the United States, they will be eligible to apply for work authorization,” DHS said.
Venezuelans are ineligible if they:
— have been ordered removed from the United States in the previous five years;
— have crossed without authorization between ports of entry after the date of announcement;
— have irregularly entered Mexico or Panama after the date of announcement, or are a permanent resident or dual national of any country other than Venezuela, or currently hold refugee status in any country; or
— have not completed vaccinations and other public health requirements.
DHS said the U.S. will not implement the new process unless Mexico accepts the return of Venezuelan nationals who bypass the process and attempt to enter irregularly.

OBSERVATION- Would one dare to call this ‘racist’?

Biden / Harris watch -

In a speech in Colorado, Biden shamelessly claimed his son Beau died in Iraq.
FACT - Biden’s son Beau died of brain cancer at Walter Reed in Bethesda, Maryland in 2015.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

A top federal financial regulator said he was considering investigating PayPal for a policy that it has now rescinded that would fine users $2,500 for spreading “misinformation.”
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra told CNBC suggested that the policy, which PayPal said over the past weekend was issued in error, was too extreme. “I’ve never actually never heard of a payment system thinking that it could fine someone for legal expression that their users are making,” Chopra told the outlet on Wednesday.

OBSERVATION - As of yesterday, PayPal still had not rescinded the policy, but allegedly modified as to what offending “misinformation” it was addressing. It should be clear to many that the efforts of PayPal to censor by ‘fining” users is a beta test for a broader, tech initiated effort to shut down opposing thoughts and opinions.

POLITICAL FRONT -

A note to many of you who think the midterms (or even the 2024 elections) will solve our problems and return us to the BEFORE TIMES normality - WAKE UP. If there is one thing one should be gaining from the past two years (and especially the last 14) is that our country and world has passed a tipping point - there is no going back, only the rate of decline slowed.

The January 6 Committee plans to hold their last public, televised hearing today. The hearing will reportedly focus on internal Secret Service communications. The Committee is expected to release a final report by the end of the year.

OBSERVATION - Many see this as a sign of failure - this show committee failed to sway the voters opinions on the J6 protests and are now in the sweeping it under the carpet mode. This is likely due to the belief that democrats will be losing control of the House and want to delay/ obfuscate Republican lead investigations of the committee’s actions.

China -

CCP congress meetings are ongoing and expect more analysis as news comes out from them. One quick item of interest is the stated goal of China to look to addressing/solving internal problems over involvement with outside issues.

North/South Korea -

North Korea’s leader Kim reportedly observed the test-firing of two long-range strategic cruise missiles yesterday. The cruise missiles travelled 2,000km (1,240 miles) over the sea, according to KCNA, which said the projectiles hit their intended, but unspecified, targets.

South Korean President Yoon announced his country is considering the deployment of nuclear weapons, citing the threat from North Korea. Yoon broke from his previous stance of nuclear non-proliferation, saying it was a priority for his country to “pursue effective and reinforced implementation of extended deterrence under any circumstances.”

OBSERVATION - SK (like Japan) is technologically advanced enough to go nuclear in a very short period. This change in policy may spark a regional nuclear arms race.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

********

The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday voted to condemn Russia’s annexation of four occupied areas of Ukraine amid the ongoing war, but four countries sided with Russia in the vote.
Of the U.N.’s 193-member body, 143 voted in favor of the resolution criticizing Russia’s “illegal so-called referendums,” with 35 abstaining, according to an update. Syria, North Korea, Belarus and Nicaragua joined Russia as the five opposing votes. China, India, South Africa and Pakistan were among the 35 abstaining from Wednesday’s vote.
OBSERVATION - A show vote, nothing more as it has no teeth.

NUKE WATCH -
Strategic nuclear forces conducted a routine exercise.

Kerch Bridge update -
The damaged Crimean Bridge being repaired by the Russians with the help of a floating crane. Both the vehicle portions as well as the rail line show signs of construction.
NOTE - As a critical supply route, I suspect that Russia is taking some shortcuts and risks in order to get the rail line in operation (for war supplies) and vehicle lanes for backup as well as evacuating Russian personnel.

Logistics -
- Reports that Russia is attempting to update its stored inventory of T-62 tanks to bring them up to a modicum modern war standards.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- More and more reports of recently mobilized conscripts being captured in the east by Ukraine after being tossed (their words) into defensive trenches half -filled with water and no food or supplies. NOTE - there may be a high propaganda angle by Ukraine, but it has been confirmed that conscripts ‘mobilized’ have been placed the front lines within days of being drafted.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 50s and 60s with little to no rain 10 day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Situation relatively stable overnight, with very little action by either side. Russia continued to use its artillery resources to shoot along the LOC in the east as well as scattered shooting in the south.
Russia used more Iranian drones in attacks overnight, but gained no tactical advantage from them.

Kyiv front ——
Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones hit Kyiv overnight

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporatic artillery across the sector.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Reports of continued progress towards Svatove and Kreminna, but not spectacular as in previous weeks.

Donetsk Oblast ——
The Russians are creating a defense line in the Luhasnk Oblast reminiscent of the Second World War. The defensive line consists of two rows of “dragon’s teeth”, followed by a trench probably meant to stop vehicles, then firing positions for infantry and vehicles. The location is 20km south of Lysychansk, and about that far from what is currently thought to be the front lines to the west.

Crimean front ———
Continued Ukranian push in Kherson, but no spectacular gains.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
Russian air defense shot down a drone at Salovo village of Kaluga region yesterday evening, another lost from radars.
Damage to residential buildings in Belgorod after missile launches, no word on type of rockets being launched - ADA or surface to surface.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
I don’t expect much change in action, although weather in drying out in the 10 day forecast may permit more aggressive moves by Ukraine.

With the exception of around Bakhmut, Russia is being forced into a hard defensive mode. This is evident in the extensive efforts by Russia to establish essentially a Siegfried line defense west of Lysychansk. The russians on this one are too smarter themselves.

First, Ukraine has shown its tactical prowess of not attacking objectives via frontal attacks. Frontal attacks have been the method of choice by Russians. Instead, Ukraine finds and punches through a weak point, then rampages through the Russian rear area, encircling objectives and cutting them off. The most recent example was the liberation of Lyman.

Second, in light of point one above, these Russian anti-armor/tank defenses are assuming the same - frontal attack - in an effort to protect Lysychansk. All they need to do is look north to Svatove and Kreminna and see that Lysychansk’s threat is from the north, not the west. Ukraine is poised for another rear area rampage when these cities are captured.

Finally, such fixed defenses can be overcome by modern tactics. It assumes that Russia can devote the resources to maintain a sufficient force to overwatch the barriers. Unwatched barrier are no barriersI was taught when I was in the Army.

Finally, a lot of Belarus equipment shuffling but that’s about all. No imminent invasion. No precursors of any Russian nuke strike.

Belarus -

Reports of army convoys in Belarus, but nothing indicating that an incursion from the north is imminent.

.
Europe / NATO General -

European Union officials have submitted a mandate to the European Parliament to refuse Russian travel documents from Russian-occupied territories. EU officials say this ruling would “safeguard the security” of EU members by preventing the use of these documents in obtaining visas or entering Schengen area countries. The order would invalidate only Russian travel documents issued in areas of Ukraine and Georgia under Russian control and their residents.

Israel -

Rioting Palestinians clashed with Israeli police in several locations across East Jerusalem Wednesday night and early Thursday, as forces continued to hunt for a Palestinian suspected of a deadly shooting attack on a checkpoint days earlier.

OBSERVATION - The level of unrest in East Jerusalem and the refugee camp regions continues to be at a high level. Some appears to be representative still of a power struggle between extremists supported by Hamas and more moderate moslems supporters of Abbas as the West Bank is still facing changes in leadership. Israel is the target of choice since shooting fellow moslems by Hamas supporters is not seen as the most advantageous tactic at this time. It does show willingness to stand up to Israel in an effort too woo more radical supporters away from Abbas.

Iran -

Riots continued without abatement. EU is looking to impose sanctions on Iran for repressing its citizens.

The United States on Wednesday said that reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal is “not our focus right now,” saying that Tehran has shown little interest in reviving the pact and that Washington was concentrating on how to support Iranian protesters instead. U.S .State Department spokesman Ned Price said “It is very clear and the Iranians have made very clear that this is not a deal that they have been prepared to make. The deal certainly does not appear imminent,”

OBSERVATION - Absent strict enforcement of sanctions and choking Iranian economy and military Iran doesn’t give a rats rear end about a new deal. They are getting away with everything they want right now.

Iraq -

More violence between opposing factions as fighting appears to be expanding to other parts of the country.

Venezuela -

See Illegal immigration above.

Black Swans -

The effects of La Nina are being clearly felt here in the Redoubt. We are experiencing unusually mild temperatures for October, and the forecast is for the same to continue through at least the end of the month. This is combined with below average moisture. If this trend continues, agriculture is going to be hit worse next year than this, as it will not have had any time to recover.

Racing into the weekend. Take the time to check your preps.

I’ve started to go back over my posts from the start of the year to evaluate the effectiveness of my sources as well as to track critical events as they relate to the security of the US and my family. In initial impressions, things were pretty calm, relatively, then exploded. I invite others to take the time to look at them. I’ve tried to keep them daisy chained for easy back reference.

Globalism / Great Reset -

Under the heading of global warming- on of the big GGR talking points, the White House is is reportedly coordinating a five-year research plan to study ways of modifying the amount of sunlight that reaches the earth to temper the effects of global warming, a process sometimes called solar geoengineering or sunlight reflection.
Some of the techniques, such as spraying sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, are known to have harmful effects on the environment and human health. But scientists and climate leaders who are concerned humanity will overshoot its emissions targets say research is important to figure out how to balance these risks against a possibly catastrophic rise in the earth’s temperature.

OBSERVATION - Someone ought to remind these knuckleheads that cutting off sunlight will cause plant life to suffer - and with that even more food shortages. But then again, the GGR crowd wants to down size the population anyway.

BBC News Climate and Science -
Information campaigns like those used in the Covid-19 pandemic would help individuals act on climate change, a House of Lords report has said.
To meet climate goals, a third of cuts to UK emissions by 2035 must come from people changing their behaviour, it says.
It calls the government’s current approach “seriously inadequate”.
In response the government said it is fully committed to its legally binding net zero climate goals.
…
“People will have different lifestyles and make different choices about what changes they need to make, but we’re quite clear that people need to be helped to take this forward,” Baroness Kate Parminter, chair of the House of Lords Environment and Climate Change Committee, which wrote the report, told BBC News.
The Covid-19 pandemic provided important lessons in how to communicate clearly, using science, to the public, she said.
“Covid was a crisis, the climate is a crisis. We can learn some very important messages around the communications and the scale of the problem,” she adds.
…
Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63209451

OBSERVATION - The dream of the GGR since the wuhan lockdowns/emergency has been to force a similar ‘emergency ‘ on the world in regards to global warming / climate change. They are not willingly getting their way with individuals - so the only way they can move forward is with govt force. Britain as well as New Zealand, Canada and Australia have strong GGR ‘green’ supporters in leadership, and are the beta test for what the GGR wants to impose on the rest of the world.

Photovoltaic (PV) solar technology producers across Europe are now at serious risk of going under because of soaring energy prices, which is soon to be followed by energy shortages. This is due in part to the high cost of energy necessary to produce the panels to begin with.

Wuhan virus -

Biden administration said Thursday that the COVID-19 public health emergency will continue through Jan. 11 as officials brace for a spike in cases this winter. The decision comes as the pandemic has faded from the forefront of many people’s minds. Daily deaths and infections are dropping and people — many of them maskless — are returning to schools, work and grocery stores as normal.
This follows his declaration during an interview that the pandemic was “over”.

OBSERVATION - its all about power folks.

MIT scientist Dr. Stephanie Seneff has produced a pre-print article titled “SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein in the Pathogenesis of Prion-like Diseases” and explains the deadly mechanisms by which mRNA-induced spike protein wreaks havoc in the human body, and in the brain in particular. Remarkably, some of the blood cells can continuously produce spike protein for months after vaccination, possibly through reverse transcription of the mRNA into DNA, which amplifies the damage.
There is evidence showing that the most toxic part of SARS-CoV-2, the spike protein, is acting like a prion, or a misfolded protein that has the ability to transmit its misfolded shape onto normal variants of the same protein. Proliferation of prions in the brain is associated with neurodegenerative diseases such as Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s, Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).
The doctor urged the parents not to vaccinate their children with mRNA shots because of the wide spectrum of harm that they inflict.

Link here - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362748984_SARS-CoV-2_Spike_Protein_in_the_Pathogenesis_of_Prion-like_Diseases#pf11

OBSERVATION - The linkage to brain related disorders were noticed very early on - now hard data is being developed to back up those observations. Another brick in the foundation for establishing fraud by Phizer and Moderna.

Economy -

Shock waves continue to reverberate throughout the financial community following yesterday’s higher than expected inflation numbers. Initial consensus is that the Fed’s interest rates hikes are not working and that other economic factors are continuing unabated to keep pushing prices higher.

Due to low water on the Mississippi restricting barge traffic, farmers have no choice but to store beans and other farm goods outside in massive piles. This exposes the crops to losses due to rodents/insects and rot, decreasing an already poor harvest and are bound to result in higher food prices.
MORE - American wheat exports are set to hit a 50-year low. The USDA blames high prices, driven by high input costs, drought, and low water levels for transportation on the Mississippi for falling exports. Even though exports are hitting the lowest levels since 1971, U.S. grain stocks will be their lowest since 2007.

OBSERVATION - We are facing another La Nina climate year (i’ve noted this on several occasions now). Previously, there has been time for agriculture to recover, but this will be going on the third year in a row. Note the critical point being grain stocks at their lowest since 2007. Our reserves in wheat, as well as other grains, are at very low levels. If there is a disaster of some kind, we could be facing famine conditions here in the US. Something inconceivable by those of this generation (including myself). Famine can be a strong catalyst for social upheaval and govt change.

Housing market woes continue with Mortgage rates hitting their highest point in 20 years this week, coming within a hair of 7% and further crushing many homebuyers’ dreams.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped to 6.92% from 6.66% last week, according to Freddie Mac. Rates have increased more than a full point since the start of September and are now more than double where they were at the beginning of the year.
Homebuyer demand remains at a 22-year low, the Mortgage Bankers Association survey for the week ending October 7 found. The volume of mortgage applications for purchases decreased 2% from a week earlier, and are down 39% from a year ago.
At the same time, pending home sales in August – an indicator of housing health – also dropped 2%, marking the third straight month of declines. Contract signings were down 24.2% year over year.

Invasion of Illegals -

Treasury Department’s Office of the Inspector General confirmed it has opened an investigation into migrant flights to Massachusetts ordered by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. DeSantis is accused of using the interest gained from COVID relief funds to pay for the flights.

OBSERVATION - DeSantis knows the game they are bring to play and I’m pretty sure he’ll eat their lunch and pop the lunch bag in their face.

Biden / Harris watch -

On Thursday in Los Angeles, Biden said the cost of living “is a key reason why I ran for president.”

REALITY CHECK - In April 2019, year-to-year inflation was running at a low 2.0 percent. When Biden took office in January 2021, it was running at an even lower 1.4 percent. Under his leadership, year-over-year inflation is now at 8.2 percent. This past June, under Biden’s watch, inflation reached 9.1 percent, the highest rate since 1981.

CW2/Domestic violence -

A Virginia Democrat lawmaker says she will introduce legislation to have parents criminally prosecuted if they do not “affirm” their child as transgender. Teachers and social workers would report parents to Child Protective Services under the bill envisioned by state Delegate Elizabeth Guzman (D-Fauquier).
Guzman told WJLA that “It could be a felony, it could be a misdemeanor, but we know that CPS charge could harm your employment, could harm their education, because nowadays many people do a CPS database search before offering employment.”

IN RELATED - State Attorney Generals have written a letter to AG Garland warning him to avoid investigations of persons and organizations that oppose transitioning of children to a different ‘gender’. The letter came after the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), American Medical Association (AMA), and the Children’s Hospital Association (CHA) asked Biden’s attorney general to take “swift action to investigate and prosecute” people responsible for making threats against hospitals and doctors that are targeted for “providing evidence-based gender-affirming care.”

OBSERVATION - Another multi category item. The progression from doxxing and shame to out right tyrannical use of law to compel parents on this subject is mind boggling. The transgender movement has clearly operated in the background for many years -in stealth mode - to set up its people/supporters in many key positions in teachers unions, school boards and legislature. The last few years the ‘go’ order must have been given and these perverts have initiated their demonic plans for children and their parents. Now I usually don’t go biblical, but it is hard to conceive of the push to transgenderize / groom our children exploding on the scene in any other way.

Biden issued an executive order (EO) that allows the government to spy on Americans for broadly defined reasons including understanding “public health risks,” “political instability,” and the “threat” of climate change.
The October 7 EO is ostensibly written to “enhanc[e] safeguards” for “United States Signals Intelligence Activities,” which is intelligence gathering by the interception of signals, including communications, such as through cell phones, or those not used in communication.
The executive order provides a kind of legal ‘backdoor’ to surveillance of Americans under extremely broad pretexts.

OBSERVATION - This EO and discussions have been there for a few days and I’ve been trying to wrap my head around it. Back in the Before Times, when I served as signals intelligence officer for the Army, one of the big rules set by NSA was no collection of US citizens. Today that has largely been bypassed by the progressive forces since 0bama (and going further back to post 9/11). Metadata is one work around. Another is the govt using agencies like the Post Office to do their collection. This is another incremental move to expand surveillance on US citizens and their first amendment rights.

POLITICAL FRONT -

January 6 Committee voted to issue a subpoena compelling former President Trump to appear before that body.

OBSERVATION - Break out the popcorn for this one. Though it is unlikely that any appearance will happen before the midterms.

The bank account of the National Committee for Religious Freedom (NCRF), which is a nonpartisan, multi-faith nonprofit founded by former U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom Sam Brownback, was recently closed without explanation, Brownback told FOX Business.
“We went into a Chase branch in the District of Columbia to open an account, no problem,” Brownback said. “Then, several weeks later, I went to put another deposit in the account, and they said, ‘Your account has been canceled, we’ll be sending your money back to you.’”
In his op-ed, Brownback alleged that a Chase employee reached out to the nonprofit and said Chase would reconsider doing business with the nonprofit if it would provide a donor list, a list of political candidates it intended to support and a full explanation of the criteria by which it would endorse them.

OBSERVATION - I could have posted this under several headings - GGR/Cw2 etc because of the overall nature of this offense and its goals. This is a progression of the banks censoring businesses and groups based solely on political views. They are getting away with this so far based on the ‘private institution’ claim. But it is clearly a conspiracy among major banks to silence conservative groups. From a GGR viewpoint, this is just the kind of system they want for us peoples - the ESG credit system they can use to control and punish the masses as necessary.

China -

Chinese authorities were forced to remove political protest banners from overpasses in China’s capital of Beijing Thursday, only days ahead of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress scheduled to begin on the 16th of this month. The banners called for President Xi Jinping’s ouster and an end to strict zero-COVID policies. Photos of the banners were widely circulated on Chinese social media and the blocked western social media app Twitter. The overt protests are rare for Beijing, especially so close to the coming CCP Congress. (FO)

North/South Korea -

N. Korea fires some 170 artillery shots into ‘buffer zone,’ violates 2018 inter-Korean accord: S. Korean military. South Korea sent a notice to North Korea through a military hotline that the DPRK’s artillery drills overnight were “a breach” of the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement, according to Seoul’s defense ministry.

South Korea detected 10 North Korean military aircraft flying South of the special reconnaissance line - in response, South Korea scrambled F-35As.

Japan warns that North Korea has completed preparations for a nuclear test.

North Korea accuses South Korea of carrying out “provocative actions” near the border.

OBSERVATION - NK has decided to play a dangerous game of chicken. The artillery and aircraft actions doubly so. Kim also knows that this jerks the chain of the SK president who’s campaign was based in part on a strong reaction to NK’s missile and nuke build up. It also doesn’t hurt Kim’s prestige by rubbing the US’ nose in its weak responses.

Japan’s warning of an impending nuclear test is very valid. NK has embarked on a six-month program (so far) of provocative missile tests and caustic rhetoric. With the collapse of the solid system of sanctions by the US, nuclear testing can provide a big cash inflow - in this case, from Iran, who can test their weapons under the cover of NK - deflecting from Israel’s close surveillance.

The underground test site is ready. Recent missile tests were claimed to be nuclear-capable missiles. Likely scenario is to now test an actual warhead - different from just a bomb. In a worse case scenario, I wouldn’t put it out of NK’s to then actually conduct an open air test, mounting the weapon on a missile and detonating in the air over the Pacific

Japan -

See warning above in North/South Korea

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

********
Russian officials announced they would not renew the Black Sea grain deal unless a list of concerns submitted to the United Nations is fully addressed. The announcement follows Russian complaints that it was having difficulties selling its fertilizer and food exports guaranteed as part of the deal. This is in part driven by the ‘terrorist attack’ on the Kerch Bridge.

Kerch Bridge update -
Huge backlog of trucks waiting to cross the Kerch via ferry are seen in satellite imagery taken yesterday by
Maxar.
Moscow has reportedly ordered the Crimea bridge repairs to be completed by July 2023. If this is true, then Russian logistic flow has been seriously crippled.
One lane of the bridge is open to light vehicle traffic, and there are no confirmed transits by train yet.
.
Moscow has announced it will evacuate Kherson after an appeal from the Russian-installed head of the region, raising fears the occupied city at the heart of the south Ukrainian oblast will become a new frontline.
Marat Khusnullin, a Russian deputy prime minister, told state television on Thursday that residents would be helped to move away from the region in south Ukraine, which remains only partly occupied by invading troops due to a successful Ukrainian counterattack in recent months.
“The government took the decision to organise assistance for the departure of residents of the [Kherson] region to other regions of the country,” Khusnullin said.

RUMINT -
Some Russian units, particularly in Donetsk region, are being ordered by senior command to temporarily cease offensive operations. The reason is the low morale of soldiers, many cases of desertion among the recently-mobilized, and widespread refusal to follow combat orders.
ALSO - There are some reports of a mutiny amongst some Russian forces, with a unit in the Kherson region conducting insubordination and handing themselves and equipment over to Ukrainian forces. Morale continues to be a significant problem amongst many Russian units.

Logistics -
- Looks like Russian/LDNR forces are now using 152mm D-1 M1943 howitzers, which were first produced during World War II.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- The Russian mobilization program is continuing to be a dumpster fire for putin, as conscripts are being sent to the front lines with little or no training or preparation. In many cases it is being rumored (see above) that they are surrendering or walking away as quickly as they can. The mess is gaining nasty reviews by nationalist milbloggers and other media talking heads.
- There are rumors that a second mobilization is about to be announced, even while Russian authorities sweep hotels, woods/forests and other hiding places for those trying to avoid the first mobilization.

Economic Impact -
- Mobilization is starting to hit small and medium businesses as eligible men disappear either via conscription or trying to flee conscription.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 50s and 60s with little to no rain 10 day forecast period.

RUMINT -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukrainian forces reportedly have continued to make progress in the east and south. Russia has made some minor gains south of Bakhmut and have launched some spoiling attacks along the Kherson front.

Russian air/missile strikes continued yesterday and overnight with Zaporizhzhia impacted hard this morning. The strikes at this stage are not as significant as earlier in the week

Russian shelling was intensive around Bakhmut and north of Donetsk yesterday and artillery exchanges were very heavy yesterday around Kreminna and northwest of Kherson.

Kyiv front ——
NSR.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporatic artillery across the sector.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Reports of continued progress towards Svatove and Kreminna, but not spectacular as in previous weeks.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russians continue to try to fortify a WW1/WW2 style defensive line. Intense artillery and ground attacks by Russian forces lead by Wagner Group mercenaries in the Bakhmut area.

Crimean front ———
Continued minor gains by Ukraine towards Kherson, while Russia is attempting to disrupt efforts through sailing attacks.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
Another ammunition depot exploded in the Belgorod region last night with reports of significant damage.
Ukrainian forces also shelled a section of railroad in the Novooskolsky region of Belgorod oblast. Rail travel in the area is suspended until further notice.
Big fire near sugar plant in Oktyabrskiy town of Belgorod region, detonations audible. Governor of Belgorod region confirmed ammunition depot exploded

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory. Likely involved in the ammo dump attacks listed above.

OUTLOOK ——
I don’t see anything breaking loose in the short term. Ukraine seems to be settling down into a methodical advance on both fronts while more capable Russian units press their attacks in the Bakhmut area.
There has been a lot of reports - many originating from Russian milbloggers in the fighting zone, that the conscripts arriving to the front lines are causing more chaos than they are contributing to the war effort. Unmotivated and in many cases fleeing the lines, creating already tenuous command and control issues. Instead of improving morale of existing forces, it is dropping it further into the dumps. They reportedly have little to no will to fight.

How Ukraine exploits this is yet to be seen. Russian morale has been a subject of OSINT and other analysts discussions since the start of the war. It has manifested itself on many occasions through large, uncontrolled retreats, the most recent in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. The most dangerous conscripts appear to be those recruited from prisons by Wagner Group, who have a purpose to fight -obtaining their eventual freedom, and who are also hardened to the hardships of fighting from surviving the Russian prison system.

Belarus -

The “counter terrorist operation mode” was introduced in Belarus after reports of planned provocations by a number of neighboring states, the Foreign Minister said.
Lukashenka confirmed counter-terrorism operation regime in Belarus, says deployment of Belarusian-Russian joint forces in Belarus is a part of this

RUMINT - The decision on mobilization in Belarus has been made. It will pass under the guise of a military fitness test.” The report says at the first stage, it will not affect large Belarusian cities, the rural population will be mobilized first.

Belarusian officials announced they have no intention to join the conflict in Ukraine unless their borders are violated. State Secretary of the Belarusian Security Council, Alexander Volfovich, said “Belarus is not going to fight,” and called claims to the contrary “fake news” driven by western attempts to pit Slavic people against each other. Citing “increasingly malevolent intentions” of the Poles, Lithuanians, and Ukrainians, the secretary added that Belarusian military and security forces remained ready to “strike back” at any violations of its borders.(FO)

OBSERVATION - threat of revolt by the Belarus military leadership if forces to invade Ukraine is still very strong. I would think that any offensive action against Poland or the Baltic countries will generate the same.

Iran -

Narrative in Iran swinging from that of ‘protests’ to revolution. After over 4 weeks, the regime has been unable to quell the riots while support has grown.

Khamenei in an address yesterday still claims that the riots are the result of outsider influence.

OBSERVATION - The watch is on to see if this actually transitions into a full revolution. If the protestors can gain the sympathy of the general military , IRGC and Hezbollah enforcers may find their task to quell the protests even more difficult - considering that they’ve been ineffectual so far.

Iraq -

The Green zone was targeted by three rockets yesterday. However, The Iraqi parliament session to elect the president was not postponed.
Iraqi parliament voted in Abdul Latif Rashid as President.
Shia politician Mohammed Shia al-Sudani was quickly named prime minister-designate, assuming the task of reconciling feuding Shia factions and forming a government after a year of deadlock. Al-Sudani replaces caretaker Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi.
In Iraq’s power-sharing system, the presidency is reserved for Kurdish groups to nominate while the premiership falls under Shia blocs. The speaker of parliament is a Sunni.

In July, when al-Sudani was first proposed for the role, protesters backed by al-Sadr also stormed parliament.
Both Rashid and al-Sudani are seen as close to al-Maliki, a longtime foe of al-Sadr.

OBSERVATION - Still in intel collection mode on Rashid, may take a while due to everything else going on in the world. He was previously the Minister of Water Resources under the government of Nouri al-Maliki. Prior to that, he served in the same position under both the Iraqi Transitional Government and the Iraqi Interim Government. Rashid was formerly a spokesperson for the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in the United Kingdom. He is a graduate of the University of Manchester. Rashid is a Kurd, born in 1944 in Sulaymaniyah, and is an active member of the PUK under the leadership of Mr Jalal Talabani.

OVERALL - His selection is unlikely to calm internal strife - particularly with Al-Sadr and may signal a continued favor to the Iranian - supported factions and militias.

Lebanon -

The Lebanese President announces Lebanon’s approval of the final version of the maritime border demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Israel.

Lebanese banks closed their doors beginning last Thursday due to the extreme number of robberies by customers demanding to take their own money out of the institutions. This is just further evidence of the freefall of country’s economy.

Yesterday, the Lebanese parliament postponed their election of a new president until October 20 after failing to secure a quorum at the session.

OBSERVATION - Lebanon continues to be a basket case and even though they gained key concessions from Israel on maritime boundaries, it will be years before they can see any profits. And any profits will likely be grafted to Hezbollah - linked activities, with very little benefit to the general citizenry.

Mexico -

Lawmakers in Mexico’s legislative Chamber of Deputies approved a motion to extend the deployment of Military forces in a public security role until 2028. The move follows a previous change in policy by Mexican President Lopez Obrador, who announced he would extend military deployment to quell organized crime.

OBSERVATION- Cartels essentially run most of Mexico now and are now fighting turf wars to expand their control Been monitoring feeds on the cartel/cartel fighting as well as govt interdiction. It’s getting brutal down there. This raises a serious specter for the border states as they start to build a power base in the US for their drug and human trafficking empires.

Hope ya’ll have a good weekend.

Wuhan virus -

New research conducted by Moderna in partnership with the Kaiser Permanente health care group reveals that the company’s messenger RNA-based (mRNA) Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) “vaccines” cause the immune system to turn against itself in just a few months.

Also known as negative efficacy, the phenomenon involves progressive immune degradation in a manner similar to AIDS and other autoimmune diseases. In essence, the “fully vaccinated” become walking immune time bombs that Moderna claims require additional injection intervention.The primary double-dose and booster regimen produces negative efficacy against the “currently dominant BA.5” subvariant after just a few months, the company claims. The same is true for BA.2, BA.4, and BA.1.12.1, though at varying intervals.

“Negative effectiveness means that a vaccinated person is more likely to contract COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, than an unvaccinated person,” one report explains.

OBSERVATION - Reports of vaccine-induced AIDS (VAIDS) have been out there for over a year now. This is one of the first studies to confirm and document its linkage to the jab (Pfizer and Moderna). As I ‘ve noted before on numerous occasions, connecting the dots to all these known (by Pfizer/Modenra, CDC, etc) can prove fraud and strip the lawsuit liability protection from them. The sooner this happens, the better.

Economy -

CEO confidence is at its lowest point since the Great Recession, according to a quarterly poll of business leaders conducted by the Conference Board. According to the survey, released Thursday, an overwhelming majority of 98% of U.S.-based CEOs say they are planning for an economic recession over the next 12-18 months. For CEOs based in Europe, that figure increased to 99%.
“CEOs are now preparing for near-inevitable recessions in both the U.S. and Europe,” Roger W. Ferguson Jr., a Conference Board trustee and former Fed vice chair, told the New York Post. “While the vast majority still expect the U.S. recession to be short and shallow, nearly 7 in 10 believe the EU will enter a deep recession with serious global spillovers.”

OBSERVATION - These CEOs jobs depend on their correct understanding of the current economic undercurrents that are welling up to impact their companies. While there is some hopium being expressed for a short/shallow US recession- their views about Europe are dour. Remember, the global economy is tightly bound together, so it will be hard not to have a similar, deep recession. Part of the hopium is to keep investors calm for as long as they can.

U.S. refineries are preparing themselves for the possibility that Biden could impose a ban on fuel exports after the White House dangled the threat of the ban in front of refiners. No action has been taken to date, but with the mid-terms coming up and fuel prices continuing to rise, this could soon change.
Earlier this month, the White House requested that the DOE assess the potential impact of banning fuel exports – including gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum products. The move suggested that President Biden may be preparing for a ban. This comes ahead of the mid-term elections, at a time when Biden is concerned about fuel prices rising even higher, and as the U.S. public battles with growing inflation levels and general economic uncertainty.
One oil executive explained the situation: “We don’t have a place to put excess fuel in the U.S,” adding, “We would have to slow refinery runs to make less diesel and gasoline.”

OBSERVATION - I find that last statement a little incredible. Also according to oil industry types, diesel and heating oil stocks are at record low levels in many parts of the country. To say there is no place to put the fuel is a bit disingenuous. The big concern IMHO is that being cut out from the global market - where they can get paid higher prices than in the US is driving this ‘concern’.
An export ban would throw the US industry into degree of chaos, on the flip side. The increase in the availability of gas/diesel would bring prices down, but refineries would still be facing inflated costs for refining and distributing, on top of high crude prices. This could result in a backlash of refinery closures or reduced production in order to maintain a profit margin. Throw in the traditional drop in oil demand that occurs during a recession and the oil industry will be forced to make many other changes that could damage the system in the future.

Invasion of Illegals -

Increasing reports that illegals are in increasing numbers crossing the border armed.

Biden / Harris watch -

Antifa et al protesting biden’s appearance s in Portland today. Much of his schedule is under wraps as a result.

CW2/Domestic violence -

Antifa going after biden in Portland

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

B-52s have deployed to Europe in support of NATO nuclear exercises.

China -

The US government’s new export controls are reportedly wreaking havoc on China’s chip industry. According to industry news reports/social media, every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralyzing Chinese manufacturing overnight. ASML has stopped providing services and support to mainland China.

OBSERVATION - This is just hitting my intel feeds, so the above is pretty raw. If the reports bear out, this would be a nasty hit on China’s chip industry. Especially since the CCP congress is just starting to meet.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

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Domestically, the ‘mobilization’ has created a lot of friction. Much of it coming from eastern states where the impression is that they are unfairly bearing the brunt of the call up.

NUKE WATCH -
Russian nuke exercises are coinciding with Nato exercises

Kerch Bridge update -
Russian begrudging admitting that the damage to the Kerch Bridge is more substantial than originally stated. July 2023 is the date for full repairs to be completed.

RUMINT -
Reports that the Russian MoD as asked Roskomnadzor to start prosecution against (Girkin) Strelkov, Pegov (WarGonzo), Podolyaka, Vladlen Tatarsky, Mardan, Dimitriev, and the creator of Rybar channel.
NOTE - These are prominent pro-Russia milbloggers who have of late been very critical of the war effort.

Logistics -
- It is being noted that Russian is deploying ancient soviet S-60 anti-aircraft guns to the war zone.
- Russia is relying more and more on Iranian drones for its attacks on Ukrainian cities, suggesting its own stockpile of guided weapons has reached a low point.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Reports that Russia is winding down its first mobilization in order for bureaucrats to process the regular conscript cycle.
- Not fully confirmed, but given the actions of the Russian military and the condition of the army, there are estimates that the wounded fatality rate is 50 percent. Alledgedly this is due to Russian military command refusing to evacuate the seriously wounded to the Russian Federation for treatment.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 50s and 60s with little to no rain 10 day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
BREAKING news that it appears Ukraine is resuming its offensive north of Kherson. Initial reports of a good deal of success.
Russian forces launched attacks all along the eastern front, focused on Bakhmut ,but with not reported success.

Kyiv front ——
Missile attacks across region, type not stated.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporadic artillery across the sector.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Reports of continued progress towards Svatove and Kreminna, but not spectacular as in previous weeks.
Russian artillery sporadically targeting other portions of the oblast.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck four Russian command posts and 15 other areas where Russian manpower and military equipment were concentrated, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said.

Reports of intensive fighting around Bakhmut with Russian forces gaining only a slight amount of ground south of the city.

Crimean front ———
Russian sources are reporting renewed Ukrainian attacks along the west side of the Dnipir River that appear to be focused on liberating the town of Mylove. Russians report Ukrainian forces have started to shell the entire frontline between Dnipro and Inhulets River.

Action has caused russian telegraph channels to bristle with concerns. Russian sources confirm that Ukrainian forces have launched at multiple sections of the Northern Kherson line their attack. Reports of large numbers of Russian soldiers surrendering as well.
More confirmation on the Ukranian offensive comes from Kirill Stremousov, a deputy head of the Russian occupation government in Kherson Oblast, said that the Ukrainian military is trying to launch an offensive near the village of Dudchany.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
Power is out in a number of places in Belgorod, Russia after Russia claims Ukraine attacked the city’s thermal power plant. Some Ukrainian sources are reporting that outbound missiles from Belgorod hit the power plant. NOTE It wouldn’t be the first time malfunctioning Russian missiles have hit Belgorod and vicinity.
An oil storage facility in Belgorod is reported to be on fire this afternoon.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Monitoring to see if the breaking news of a rejuvenated Kherson offensive by Ukraine is the real deal. The validity of russian telegraph channels reporting on the initial success of the attacks lends some credibility to the reports. russian telegraph channels have been relatively accurate of late providing intel on parts of the battle under Ukranian OPSEC silence.

The Belarus action has gotten a lot of attention. Since even before the war started, Belarus has been sword rattling with its military. The recent movement of recently mobilized Russians to regions of southern Belarus raise several key points -

FIRST - There are serious doubts that Belarus will actually send forces into Ukraine. The move is widely unpopular in Belarus, and even more so with the military.

SECOND - The Russians appear to be recently mobilized, absent significant training and equipment. I’ve observed before, there is an increasingly diminishing chance that these troops will be sent into war using Belarus equipment. Reason being is that Belarus is shipping armor and other vehicles to Russia and not areas the Russian conscripts are reportedly staging at.

THIRD - Movement of Russian forces into the border regions with Belarus forces may be an effort to provide them additional training. The goal this training may well be to throw them into combat towards Kyiv in an effort to divert Ukrainian assets away from the east and south.

FINALLY - Should Russia try to assault Kyiv again from the north, the results will likely be worse than when the war started. Relatively well trained and equipped Russian forces surprise attack was stopped by hastily organized Ukrainian resistance. The rag tag Russian conscripts being into Belarus are a far cry from such a force.

However, one shouldn’t write off another attack towards Kyiv given the desperate situation russia is finding itself in in the south and east. Currently, no intelligence indicators of an imminent attack are present. That may change with time.

Belarus -

Belarus is expecting approximately 70,000 additional Russian soldiers to be deployed to Belarus.

Belarusian military personnel have been banned from traveling abroad, unless it’s to Russia, sources tell Belarusian outlet Nasha Niva.

Belarusian watchdog Belarusian Hajun reported that, over the past week, Belarus has transported at least 67 T-72 tanks and 28 Ural military trucks from its Mahilou region to Russia.

“Prohibitions and restrictions” on visiting forests has been introduced in 12 southern regions of Belarus, state media report. This usually happens when there are army maneuvers etc

OBSERVATION - these forests are located in the border region due north of Kyiv. Needless to say intel eyes are on this activity. The current publicly released assessments state that there are no indicators of an attack into Ukraine from the north at this time.
IMHO - So far these Russian forces appear to be bodies only, with no accompanying armor/tanks. They also appear to be the untrained conscripts. I thought that initially they could fall in on Belarus equipment until the reports started coming out that it is apparently is being shipped to Russia.
Russia’s initial attacks towards Kyiv were relatively complex and had well armed and relatively trined units (VDV for example). To throw unmotivated and untrained conscripts into an attack on Kyiv again would be disastrous. See my comments under Ukraine OUTLOOK above.

.
Europe / NATO General -

NATO is set to start military drills practicing the use of Europe’s nuclear bombs on Monday after Putin warned direct clashes with Russia would spark ‘global catastrophe’. Its annual nuclear exercise ‘Steadfast Noon’ will see up to 60 aircrafts take part in training flights over Belgium, the North Sea and Britain. The nuclear drills - which do not involve live bombs - come after Vladimir Putin said today that a direct clash between NATO and Russian troops would lead to ‘global catastrophe’. NATO said the exercise, which runs until 30 October, was a routine, recurring training activity and added that no live weapons would be used.

Sweden has gathered evidence conclusively linking Russia to sabotage of the Nordstream pipeline. Citing national security concerns, Stockholm has rejected a joint investigation and data sharing with Russia.

Israel -

Palestinian factions signed a reconciliation deal in Algiers on Thursday, vowing to hold elections by next October in their latest attempt to end a rift that has now lasted more than 15 years. The deal was signed by a leading figure from the Fatah party of Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas and by the chief of the Hamas terror group, which rules Gaza. But Abbas himself, president of the Palestinian Authority since 2005, was not present.

Fatah and Hamas have been at odds since the elections in 2006, which were won by Hamas but never recognized by the international community. The following year, the Islamist movement seized control of the Gaza Strip beginning years of division, with Fatah administering Palestinian-run areas of the West Bank. The first elections since the division had been set to take place last year, but were canceled by Abbas.

Fatah and Hamas have signed several similar deals in the past but none has led to elections actually taking place.

OBSERVATION - I think the last sentence above says it all. Hamas and Fatah have been nasty opponents over the years. Fatah (and Israel) do not want to allow Hamas to gain a foot hold in the West Bank. Fatah has gotten soft in many ways, working with Israel to raise the standard of living in the West Bank, whereas Hamas has kept its anti-Israel sword sharp, gaining resonance with West Bank radicals.

Iran -

Iranian activists called for fresh nationwide protests on Saturday over the death of Mahsa Amini, as the movement entered its fifth week despite a crackdown that has killed dozens. At least 108 people have been killed in the Amini protests, and at least 93 more have died in separate clashes in Zahedan, capital of the southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan, according to Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights.

Reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) may be mobilizing retired service members and other affiliated officers to suppress protests in Tehran.

OBSERVATION - If this mobilization is accurate, it indicates that the budding revolution is getting out of hand for the regular forces.

Misc of Note -

US health officials are becoming increasingly concerned about this year’s flu season – and are already seeing signs that the virus is spreading. As the 2022-23 flu season gets underway, one high school in California is facing a “high number of absences” among students due to possible flu cases. Flu activity in the United States often starts to increase in October and usually peaks between December and February.

OBSERVATION - From completely disappearing during the wuhan plandemic to a new disaster in order to push more vaccinations.

Alaska will cancel the upcoming winter snow crab season in the Bering Sea for the first time, and bar fishers from catching king crabs in the Bristol Bay for a second consecutive year, because of a sharp decline in their estimated population.

This week’s announcements by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game deal a severe blow to fishers that make a living off the crabs. They also bring back to the forefront questions about the role of climate change in the rapid decline of the snow crab population: The number of juvenile snow crabs was at record highs just a few years ago, before some 90 percent of snow crabs mysteriously disappeared ahead of last season.

OBSERVATION - In perspective, 90% is approximately 1 billion missing crab. This may be linked to the La Nina cycle we are currently in (third consecutive year) and as the Alaska F &G suggest in their statement, the crabs may have migrated to colder water.

Running late, OBE’d

Globalism / Great Reset -

Credit Suisse, is preparing to sell parts of its Swiss domestic bank as it attempts to close a capital hole of around 4.5 billion Swiss francs ($4.48 billion), the Financial Times has reported.

OBSERVATION - Posted here, as the downfall of the global finance system is necessary so the GGR can replace it with their own system. CS has been struggling for weeks and this is just the latest iteration. Other central banks suffering similar liquidity issues.

Queensland Education Department decided to dock the pay of 900 school staff who did not receive the Covid vaccine, saying that ignoring the mandate put others at risk. Staff members – including teachers, teacher aides, school officers, administration staff, and cleaners – will have a “small-scale temporary reduction of one increment of pay” for 18 weeks. That equals approximately $25-$90 per week gross, depending on the level of one’s wage. The letter stated that the action was “entirely appropriate” for the severity of the matter and hoped staff would follow future directions. Also, Western Australia Police say more than 50 officers are facing disciplinary action over their refusal to be vaccinated against Covid-19, as a legal challenge against the state’s vaccine mandates by one of their own was comprehensively rejected by Supreme Court judge.

IN RELATED - following biden’s declaration that “the pandemic is over.”, military spokesman, John Kirby , attempted to justify the continued drive by the military for 100% vaccination. There is no evidence that the COVID-19 vaccines promote the “health and safety” of our force.
underlings.

OBSERVATION - George Orwell wrote: “All tyrannies rule through fraud and force, but once the fraud is exposed they must rely exclusively on force.” Same is true here in America, biden extending the ‘emergency’ another 90 days - its all about power, and the GGR doesn’t want to lose the leverage these ‘emergency’ orders grant to its

BlackRock’s focus on the latest Wall Street craze—environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing—has turned into a risky affair for the world’s largest asset manager, a UBS analyst recently stated.
Brennan Hawken, an analyst at the bank, downgraded the stock of BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK) from Buy to Neutral and slashed the stock price target from $700 to $585 over growing pushback to its ESG efforts.

“We are downgrading BLK to Neutral based on environmental pressure to earnings and risk from the firm’s ESG positioning,” he said in a note, adding that BlackRock could face increased regulatory inspection and the possibility of diminished fund management business.

Louisiana and South Carolina have announced that they would be divesting from BlackRock holdings. Other U.S. jurisdictions have begun to divest tens of millions of dollars in state funds from BlackRock, including Arkansas, Utah, and West Virginia. In August, Texas and 18 other states penned a letter to Fink threatening to remove state funds from these banks over BlackRock’s ESG objectives.

OBSERVATION - The GGR’s tip of the spear to coerce businesses into embracing its agenda on the climate change angle, BlackRock will come out of this a bit burned, but still capable of pushing the GGR agenda in the private sector.

Another name in the GGR game to keep an eye on is the Federation of State Medical Boards (FSMB), a very influential private nonprofit whose official mission is vaguely defined as “representing the state medical and osteopathic regulatory boards”. When it speaks, organizations like the American Board of Family Medicine (ABFM), the American Board of Internal Medicine (ABIM), and the American Board of Pediatrics (ABP) jump. o
On September 24, 2022, the President and CEO of FSMB, Humayun Chaudhry, delivered a talk at a plenary session at the ABMS Conference 2022 on the topic of “Misinformation in Health Care: The Implications for Professionalism and the Public Trust.”

OBSERVATION - Being a ‘private’ organization it can avoid scrutiny of the boards it influences. But its history shows linkage all the way back to when it was formed under the Rockafellers. Today it is another tool in the GGR’s arsenal, most recently involved in the kalifornia law to essentially criminalize alternative medical opinions.

Economy -

The most recent update to the U.S. Drought Monitor revealed that nearly 82 percent of the country is facing at least abnormally dry conditions — the highest percentage since the drought monitor launched in 2000. Drought relief in the West is not likely any time soon, though some rainfall is expected in parts of Southern California, Arizona and New Mexico over the weekend. In general, though, the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook, released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, expects drought conditions to persist unabated.

OBSERVATION - I can tell you here in the Redoubt, the dry fall bodes evil for the winter wheat crop. The Fed’s rate increases cannot stem inflation pressures coming from nature.

Biden / Harris watch -

Video showing Biden grabing a young girl by the shoulder and telling her “no serious guys till you’re 30” as she looks back appearing uncomfortable is circulating the interwebs.

CW2/Domestic violence -

Antifa tried to find out where biden was staying in Portland by sending their comrades to pretend to be visitors getting to the hotel. One of the comrades suggests the hotel location information should have been used by one of them to kill Biden.
Antifa is also calling for violence against Mayor Ted Wheeler following an officer-involved shooting in downtown Portland just as Biden arrived. Wheeler has been a big supporter of Antifa.

OBSERVATION - -Reflecting the goal for all America, Portland is on the verge becoming ungovernable. This over riding goal will even put Antifa “allies” in their cross hairs.

China -

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs today has released a renewed Travel Alert calling for all Chinese Citizens currently still in Ukraine to leave immediately due to a “Serious Security Situation”.

OBSERVATION - Similar warning was released before Russia started its invasion in February.

Xi Jinping tells 20th CPC, China will “never commit to abandoning the use of force” on Taiwan. His ascension to the peak of party and country leadership for a third term appears to be locked in.

North/South Korea -

SK on a heightened watch for a potential surprise nuke attack thru early November.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

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There are reports that Roskomnadzor is investigating a number of Russian military correspondents/bloggers for discrediting the Russian military, reportedly with Gerasimov’s consent. They include Semyon Pegov, Igor Girkin, Rybar, Grey Zone, and Vladlen Tatarsky.

NUKE WATCH -

Kerch Bridge update -
Winter storms means no trucks or heavy transport can get in/out of Crimea via Russia - due to weakness of the damaged bridge, only cars allowed to cross via 1 lane (at damaged section). And with winter approaching, ferry closures will be routine.

RUMINT -
In addition to China (see China above) urging its citizens to leave Ukraine, two other nations have recently done the same. Egypt and Kazakistan have as well. Rumors of other Russian supporting Asian countries doing the same. Twitterverse has been a twitter saying this is evidence of impending use of nukes by Russia or the massive assault to end all assaults on Ukraine. Evidence from the timing suggest that these warnings were based mode on the recent Russian missile barrage and not a nuclear attack.

Logistics -
- Several reports about Iranian ARASH-2 Attack drones heading for Russia. Long range and large warhead - these - if supplied - could cause much more damage than the Shahed 136.
- “An intelligence assessment shared in recent days with Ukrainian and U.S. officials contends that Iran’s armaments industry is preparing a first shipment of Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles” These missiles have a 300km and 700km respective range.

NOTE ON IRANIAN ARMS - Analysts, justifiably so, are viewing Russia’s sudden reliance on Iranian missile and drone system as evidence that their stockpile of Russian made systems is dwindling. Introduction of these weapons systems may serve to justify supplying Ukraine with longer range systems like the ATCAMS.

- Russian news has made a big deal out of the rehabbing of 60 year old T62s at a tank plant touted to be constructing Russia’s next generation tank - the T14. No note that T14 production has stopped due to lack of supplies.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Firefight erupts in military base in Russia’s Belgorod region near Ukraine according to Russian sources, reported of dead and wounded after possible recruits/mobilised forces open fire on other soldiers. Baza reports 22 killed and 16 wounded, other sources report 3 attackers killed in firefight.
- Putin indicated that his controversial military mobilization drive was ending. “This work is coming to an end,” he told journalists Friday after a conference attended by regional leaders in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana. Indicating that the mobilization drive would be concluded in two weeks, he added that 222,000 out of an expected 300,000 reservists had already been conscripted.

Economic Impact -
- Canada calls for ending Russia’s membership in the International Monetary Fund and the Group of Twenty

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 50s and 60s with little to no rain 10 day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia continues to throw forces peacemeal all along the eastern front ,particularly against the Baukhmut region only obtaining minor gains. The bulk of Russia’s remaining artillery firepower remains focused on the same with sporadic fire elsewhere.

Results from the Ukranian attacks in Kherson Oblast are being sorted out.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporatic artillery across the sector.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
More fighting in the east, pressing closer to key russian supply nodes

Donetsk Oblast ——
More attacks across the Bakhmut sector witl little to no success.

Crimean front ———
Little new news about the resumption of the offensive towards Kherson. Ukranian OPSEC and sudden silence from Russian sources can be viewed as either a good or bad sign for the offensive.

On 15 OCT, UKR announced the destruction of four S-300 surface to air missile complexes in the coastal city of Berdyansk. This Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) mission follows the interdiction of 3 Russian S-300 air defense complexes in Tokmak on 12 OCT. The AGM-88 HARM missiles US has provided and Ukraine has adapted to its aircraft have become a potent combat multiplier that has given it the edge in air superiority and shaping the battlefield for future operations.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
Several explosions and smoke reported around airport at Belgorod. Russian ADS was activated with at least one likely interception, but many more impacts. Later evidence of a SEAD strike on a Russian S400 battery,

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Still monitoring to see if the renewed assault in Kherson is making progress.

Russian posturing in Belarus continues to be evaluated. See instance its the Belarus 19th mech bde below. This is an instance where Russia could appropriate the equipment and launch another attack towards Kyiv. However, it my assessment that Belarus doesn’t have enough equipment to arm a force big enough to strike Ukraine at this time.
Never the less, things may change with time, so any buildup there will be monitored.

Belarus -

One of the trains carrying Russian soldiers arrived at the base of the Belarusian 19th Mechanized Brigade. The brigade has two tank and four mechanized battalions, but only around 2k men. It should have around 5k.

Videos showing trains with passenger cars along with cargo trucks and some artillery.

Russia is reportedly giving Belarus the technical ability to update some “Su-25” aircraft to carry nuclear weapons. Russia also reportedly supplying Belarus with dual mode (conventional / nuclear) Iskander systems.

Iran -

The infamous Evin prison in Tehran burned last night with gunfire heard. Iran’s official news agency IRNA also confirmed clashes between prisoners and guards and the fire, saying the blaze started at the warehouse of prison uniforms. An eyewitness says the explosions were so huge that the blast waves broke the windows of nearby houses.
Meanwhile, dozens of protesters have gathered outside the prison, chanting “Death to Dictator”.

Spontaneous demonstrations broke out in Berlin because of the fire in Ewin prison in Tehran. The demonstrators demanded solidarity with the political prisoners in Iran and the resignation of the Iranian government with the shouts “Mullah must go”.

Off and running on a new week.

Globalism / Great Reset -

Pope Francis in a new book (recently leaked) says that the world and its institutions require material changes to create a new economic system that creates food, health, economic and social rights for all.

OBSERVATION – The pope has consistently sided with the globalist agenda throughout his career. No surprise here.

Wuhan virus -

Fauci claims he had nothing to do with school shudowns in a recent television interviews. Recorded statements from Fauci show otherwise.

OBSERVATION - Short of jail, nothing will be satisfactory as a response to this guy’s actions.

Economy -

Looking to see what reverberations from last weeks inflation numbers are bouncing around the system this week. Early trends show oil prices rising (and with it gasoline prices), while the housing market is showing signs of significant collapse starting in some major market areas.

Biden / Harris watch -

With a chocolate chip ice cream cone in his hand, Biden answered: “I’m not concerned about the strength of the dollar. I’m concerned about the rest of the world. Our economy is strong as hell.”

CW2/Domestic violence -

Seattle socialist city council member Shama, who led effort to defund the police during the 2020 BLM-Antifa riots, is asking for police protection at her home after it was vandalized with feces.

OBSERVATION - Saw a phrase elsewhere saying these Marxists “drink wine while preaching water” , an interesting way to call out their hypocrisy. Would love for the police force to say no money in the budget, but that won’t fly. Some animals are just more equal than others.

POLITICAL FRONT -

Closing in on the midterms, and the fight is intensifying. I am optimistically hopeful the polling trend trajectory continues towards a red wave.

China –

China delays the release of major economic data for the third quarter, without giving a reason or a new date.

OBSERVATION – Probably doesn’t want to upset the CCP congress and the impending selection of Xi for a third term.

North/South Korea -

CORRECTION FROM YESTERDAY – Not an attack alert status. The office of South Korea President Yoon Suk-yeol has been on 24-hour standby as North Korea is expected to conduct its seventh nuclear test at any time, officials said Sunday.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

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A good article on the woes of the Russian ‘mobilization’ effort. This is what Russia is having to work with IF they try an attack on Kyiv or even thrown in front of the Ukrainian offensives.
Link here - https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htmurph/articles/20221017.aspx

In his official telegram channel former Russian president Medvedev threatens Israel with severing ties and destroying mutual relations, if rumors that Israel began to supply anti-drone weapon to Ukraine is true.
He also tells Jews, we don’t understand who are real Nazis.
OBSERVATION – See Ukraine below on Israel’s soon involvement.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- The latest Russia war mobilization reportedly has the country grabbing men off the street, and homeless shelters, to fight in Ukraine. Among the locations men are being taken from: homeless shelters, train stations, apartment building lobbies, offices, hostels, cafes, and restaurants, according to the report.

- It appears the shooting yesterday at a military base in Russia’s Belgorod region occurred after a Lieutenant Colonel told soldiers that they were fighting a Holy Way and called Allah a coward. After which, three soldiers from Tajikistan opened fire reportedly killing 29 soldiers.

- Military draft offices in Moscow to close today (Monday), Kremlin’s ‘partial mobilization’s quotas ‘completed’ in capital

- In comments to the media at the Central Asian Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that “all mobilization activities” would be completed in two weeks. Citing early Russian defense ministry estimates that were lower than the previously announced 300,000 troops, Putin further announced he had no plans to expand mobilization efforts saying no requests for more troops had been received, and he did not “see any need.” Per the announcement, two hundred twenty thousand soldiers have already been mobilized for military service in Russia. (FO)

- Analysts believe that RU’s precision strike munitions are down to 1/3 of prewar levels. Could be the reason Russia has shifted hard towards the use of Iranian drones.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 50s and 60s with little to no rain 10 day forecast period.

RUMINT -

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched an extensive drone attack on Ukraine using over 50 Iranian drones to target primarly Kyiv as well as Odesa, Zaporizhzhia and areas in the western part of the country. Initial reports indicate that over half of the drones were shot down, but many made it into Kyiv.
Russia continued to make strong attacks against Bakhmut and surrounding areas supported by heavy artillery fire. Attacks were reportedly repulsed by Ukrainian defenders. Artillery elsewhere was scattered to sporatic.

The use of Iranian drones may finally be drawing Israel into the fight on the side of Ukraine. This would be beneficial to Israel in a way -giving them an opportunity to test anti-drone technology against Iran’s equipment.

Kyiv front ——
Major drone attack overnight. Drones targeted residential and civilian sectors of the town.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporatic artillery across the sector. A rocket attack hit the north-eastern Sumy region,

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
More fighting in the east, pressing closer to key russian supply nodes

Donetsk Oblast ——
More attacks across the Bakhmut sector with little to no success.

Ukrainian sources reported Russian occupation officials in Kherson City are stepping up filtration measures (essentially stop and searches – show me your papers etc) against Ukrainian partisans and accelerating efforts to evacuate key materials and personnel from Kherson to Crimea

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
For now, Russia has found a way to strike Ukrainian targets with a degree of success – sending waves of Iranian drones that locally overwhelm air defenses. It will be interesting to see how quickly Israel gets systems there to counter Iranian drones. Israel has for the past several years prepared for Iran / Hezbollah to use drones in an eventual attack on the country. Ukraine’s 50+% success rate in taking these drones down shows they are quickly adapting to the threat, but needs additional assets like radars etc for early detection.

ACTIVITY OUT OF BELARUS – Noting here rather than down below. Many still say the activity there fortells a soon Russian invasion from the north. Lets compare apples to apples. Prior to February, hundreds of trains with soldiers, ARMOR and TANKS were tracked from military districts all over Russia coming into Belarus over the course of several months. So far a lesser number of trains have been observed, and those mostly were passenger trains and some wheeled cargo vehicles. The Russian soldiers are predominantly conscripts scraped off the street, bars, etc. and sent to Belarus with little to no training.

This is hardly a good foundation for an invasion force. Unless Russia wants to throw the lives of thousands away. Remember too – this is Ukraine’s home turf and they are better prepared for an attack from the north this time, without necessarily having to pull forces from the south and east.

One wild card is the new theater commander. His army group has persisted in attacking Bakhmut for months now, with very little to show for it, tying up critical resources for an objective that does not support the current tactical situation in the east. His aggressive attack, attack, attack has earned him the favor of wagner forces in his sector. He is also reportedly known to think out of the box. He may be seeking to apply similar against Kyiv.

FLASH BACK- In late January – Early February, it was estimated that Russia mustered a total potential force of 97 BTGs – at full strength and with modern equipment. Total estimated force of approximately 160K to 170K. Forces aligned against Kyiv at that time were about half that total number – including some of their best VDV airborne units. This effort involved literally hundreds of trains.

BOTTOM LINE – OSINT as well as various govt intelligence agencies will be paying close attention to the numbers of troops and any armor brought with them. They will also be looking close to see if Belarus is going to ‘loan’ their equipment to supply these so far vastly under equipped Russian mobilization conscripts.

Belarus -

Reportedly, Russian MiG-31 fighters have arrived in Belarus These jets can carry Kinzhal hypersonic missiles and R-37M ultra long range missiles.

Belarus has deployed enlarged border detachments and mobile groups from territorial border service agencies to protect the border with Ukraine against the backdrop of increased intelligence activity on the Ukrainian side – State Border Committee of Belarus

Belarus says that just under 9,000 Russian troops will arrive in the country as part of the “regional grouping” of forces to protect its borders. – Reuters

Belarusian Ministry of Defense: about 170 tanks and 100 guns and mortars will come to us from Russia

OVERALL OBSERVATION – Potential Russian enticement to join the fight. By itself a round of sword rattling.

Europe / NATO General -

Leadership issues are rocking Britain. U.K.’s new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, is battling to save her position after admitting that she made mistakes in developing an economic plan to save the U.K. economy.

OBSERVATION – Not a good thing with global unsteadiness and issues to have the country go rudderless.

NATO officials announced the start of the alliance’s “Steadfast Noon” nuclear warfare drills in Belgium. The exercises will continue until 30 October, overlapping with Russia’s annual Grom strategic nuclear exercises.

Pakistan -

Pakistan’s new finance minister, Ishaq Dar, is reportedly asking to restructure $27 billion worth of non-Paris Club debt owed to China.

OBSERVATION – Pakistan with its faltering economy has been caught in the credit web China has spun for dozens of countries. What will Pakistan be forced to give up in order for this loan not to be defaulted?

Israel -

See impending support to Ukraine in fighting Iranian drones and other weapons systems.

Iran -

Iran’s supplying drones and other weapons systems is resulting in developing and perfecting with Russia’s help a weapon systems that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi. Iran denies it is supporting Russia with weapons systems.

Central / South America General-

Chilean security officials announced the deployment of specialized federal police officers to protect valuable mining trains from raids by international criminal organizations. Chilean railway operator FCAB said the armed criminals have targeted more than 70 shipments employing sophisticated attacks in remote areas, kidnapping operators, and using cranes to steal up to 20 tons of copper at a time. Chilean officials say the stolen minerals were being shipped to markets in Asia, including China and Korea. (FO)

OBSERVATION – Interesting trend and target. 20 tons of anything requires a major operation. I strongly suspect that some of the rail operators are in on the heists, providing insider information on operations and times.

Misc of Note -

Uganda President Yoweri Museveni said on Saturday the government was implementing an overnight curfew, closing places of worship and entertainment, and restricting movement into and out of two districts affected by Ebola for 21 days. Museveni said 19 people have died since the east African nation announced the outbreak of the deadly hemorrhagic fever on Sept. 20.

OBSERVATION – This outbreak is relatively small and not a serious threat to the US. However, expect medical fearmongering like the monkey pox (where has that gone from the news headlines/?).

A record 4.7 million Haitians face acute hunger

OBSERVATION – Many give little concern for the hell-hole called Haiti. Americans should take a pause in this point. If our food supply system breaks down, hunger has shown to consistently be one of the key components that drives social upheaval. Could America become a Haiti? Not to fear monger but accurately assess the question - the answer is yes.

Tight schedule this morning, so I won’t be commenting on most of the items today.

Wuhan virus -

University in Boston playing around with features of the two most notable COVID strains — the original one with the greatest lethality and the Omicron with the greatest transmissibility. Then they started infecting mice with it.
The mutant variant — which is a hybrid of Omicron and the original Wuhan virus — killed 80 percent of mice infected with it at Boston University. When a similar group of rodents were exposed to the standard Omicron strain, however, they all survived and only experienced ‘mild’ symptoms. The scientists also infected human cells with the hybrid variant and found it was five times more infectious than Omicron. This suggests the man-made virus might be the most contagious form yet. — DailyMail

OBSERVATION – Holy @$#% This is the absolutely LAST thing we need scientists playing around and doing. Shut this study down and nuke every vial containing this hybred.

Economy -

The baby formula shortage has dropped off the radar screen given the other chaos going on in our country today, however, a significant percentage of families with infants are still unable to find the variety of formula their babies require on any given week. According to the Wall Street Journal, roughly one-third of such families are either being forced to go with a brand not suggested for their baby’s needs or they simply aren’t finding any without jumping through a lot of hoops. Nearly one in five of affected households has less than a week of formula on hand, the survey showed.
So the situation is considerably better than it was six months ago, but we’re still quite a ways from getting back to “normal” levels of production and distribution.

OBSERVATION - The baby food shelves are still mostly bare, though not completely empty as earlier. The world’s superpower still cant feed its babies.

Biden is planning to release up to 15 million barrels of oil from the US’s emergency oil reserves as he tries to stem soaring gasoline prices.
The oil release would be the latest portion of a deal Biden struck last spring to release 180 million barrels of oil from energy companies.
His administration is planning to announce the latest reserve release later this week, according to Bloomberg.

OBSERVATION – biden has critically emptied most of our country’s reserve. This is a deliberate act to weaken the country should some disaster befall us. To make it doubly worse, in part he is taking national assets to try to sway the midterm campaign.

China –

Xi gave a nearly two-hour speech on Sunday at the start of the week-long CCP Congress. In his speech, he described the Chinese government’s work under his leadership and his plans for the future as he is expected to be re-elected to another five-year term as CCP party leader.

During his speech, Xi said, “We have set the party’s goal of building a strong military in the New era.”
“We have implemented the party’s thinking on strengthening the military for the new era: follow the military strategies for the new era and upheld absolute party leadership of the people’s Armed Forces,” he said. “We have coordinated efforts to strengthen military working all directions and domains and carried out bold reforms of National Defense. And the people’s Armed Forces now boast new systems, a new structure, a new configuration and a new look.”

Xi repeatedly highlighted one area of potential focus for the Chinese military, “resolving the Taiwan question.”

Beijing wants to seize Taiwan “on a much faster timeline” than previously considered, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday, warning that President Xi Jinping was leading China in a more aggressive direction.

OBSERVATION – Taking advantage of the obvious weakness of biden?

North/South Korea -

South Korea and the United States will kick off large-scale air drills involving U.S. F-35B stealth jets later this month, per Seoul officials. The drills are set to take place over South Korean airspace from Oct. 31-Nov. 4, with the South Korean Air Force set to mobilize some 140 warplanes, including F-35A, F-15 and KF-16 fighters.

The U.S. military plans to deploy around 100 aircraft, including F-35B stealth fighters from an American base in Japan, according to officials. “The planned training is aimed at verifying the systems of wartime combined air operations between the South Korean and U.S. air forces, and enhancing their combat readiness posture,” an official said.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

********

NUKE WATCH - Russia said on Tuesday that four Ukrainian regions whose annexation it proclaimed last month are under the protection of its nuclear arsenal.
The statement from the Kremlin came at a moment of acute tension, with both NATO and Russia expected to hold military exercises shortly to test the readiness of their nuclear weapons forces.
Asked by reporters if the regions were under Moscow’s nuclear umbrella, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “All these territories are inalienable parts of the Russian Federation and they are all protected. Their security is provided for at the same level as [it is for] the rest of Russia’s territory.”

Russian Personnel Issues –
- Lt. Col. Roman Malyk, incharge of Russia’s key efforts to mobilise against Ukraine, was found dead under “suspicious” circumstances, a report said on Sunday. Malyk was said to be a close aide of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and was found dead at his residence in Russia’s Primorsky area village.
An investigation has been launched into his death and suicide has not been ruled out as a cause by Russian police, reports said.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian increasingly targeted Ukrainian electrical grid infrastructure overnight. Initial estimates of 30% having been taken out, mostly via Iranian drones. Russian ground attack activity in and around Bahkmut was noticeably decreased from yesterday.
Sporadic artillery all along the LOC.
Russian sources report that Ukraine is continuing its offensive in Kherson Oblast – with few details.

Kyiv front ——
Drone attacks continue in the region

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
More fighting in the east, pressing closer to key russian supply nodes

Donetsk Oblast ——
More attacks across the Bakhmut sector with little to no success. Intensity down from yesterday.

Crimean front ———
Russia reports continued Ukranian offensive in Kherson Oblast, but provides few details. Ukraine OPSEC keeps silent on its actions. Overall activity appears to have let up from yesterday.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Drone and other missile attacks on electrical system.

Russian Territory -—
Shelling reported along the border in Grayvoron district of Belgorod region

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Relatively low levels of action, likely associated with rainy weather making maneuver through the mud difficult. Rain will become an increasing factor on both sides as fall moves on and winter approaches.

Russia’s drone blitz is expected to continue, however, Ukraine is getting the hang on how to shoot these critters down. Russia is targeting more and more the power grid – in a clear threat to the civilian population with winter coming.

Watching Belarus – still no evidence of an impending invasion.
Watching to see if long range missiles from Iran arrive and are put to use. Could give an excuse to arm Ukraine with Atacams.

Belarus -

Belarus reserves its right to take preemptive strategic deterrence measures amid the establishment of offensive NATO groups near Belarusian borders, says Valery Revenko, head of the Belarusian Defense Ministry international military cooperation department.
“The Republic of Belarus will protect its national interests with use of all available means, including by use of forces, and retains its right to take a complex of preemptive strategic measure complex in order to prevent an attack or to neutralize an internal armed conflict,” he said during a briefing for foreign military attaches, partially published by Defense Ministry press office Monday.
Revenko underscored that Minsk is concerned by the “growing Polish military potential,” and the practicing of “establishment of offensive groups and use of forces on Russian and Belarusian directions” in the Baltic states.

Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya urges Belarusians not to partake in the Ukraine War:
“I urge the Belarusian military: don’t follow criminal orders, refuse to participate in Putin’s war against our neighbors”

Belarus claims it is preparing 5,000 shelters to shield residents from missile strikes
This adds to the NATO and Ukrainian aggression narratives that Lukashenko stoked to justify the regional grouping

.
Europe / NATO General -

At least 50 metres (164ft) of an underwater pipeline bringing Russian gas to Germany is thought to have been destroyed by a blast last month.
Video shot by a Norwegian robotics company, published by Swedish newspaper Expressen, appears to show the massive tear in the Nord Stream 1 pipe.
Danish police believe “powerful explosions” blew four holes in the pipe and its newer twin, Nord Stream 2.

Iran -

Nation wide rioting continues with no end in sight.

The US warns it will take action against companies and nations working with Iran’s drone program after Russia used the imports for deadly kamikaze strikes in Kyiv.
US, France and Britain say Iran is violating a UN arms embargo by supplying Russia with ‘kamikaze’ drones that are being deployed in Ukraine.

OBSERVATION – It will take some time for any sanctions to take hold – a lot of dipliomatic wrangling necessary in the west to identify and structure. Meanwhile, Iran won’t care one bit because they and Russia have made backroom deals for payment and transport.

Misc of Note -

Parts of southeastern Australia registered more than a month’s worth of rain last week, inundating roads, homes, and some of the best-growing an producing regions in Australia.
“We’re talking here about some of the best growing and producing country in Australia and it has been seriously impacted, whether it’s been the destruction of crops or the inability to access some of these farmlands,” Treasurer of Australia, Jim Chalmers, said. “It will also have obvious consequences for the budget.”1
Major fruit and vegetable producer Costa Group fell as much as 16% on October 17 after warning that its citrus crop has suffered due to adverse weather. Earnings from the division will land “considerably lower” than previously forecast, it said, flagging further downside risk if the extreme weather continues.
Elsewhere, Australian concrete producer Adbri Ltd. said severe rainfall was hitting volumes and costs of goods, while rising inflation was further pressuring margins. The stock plummeted as much as 20% to its lowest since March 2009 after the firm issued worse-than-expected earnings guidance.
OBSERVATION – Expect more weather related hits to food production in the coming year.

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