Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

Doubling up today. Big stuff happening.

Globalism / Great Reset -

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, told an audience at Georgetown University on Thursday that the IMF is once again lowering its projections for global economic growth in 2023, projecting world economic growth lower by $4 trillion through 2026.
“Things are more likely to get worse before it gets better,” she said, adding that Ukraine’s conflict that began in February has dramatically changed the IMF’s outlook on the economy. “The risks of recession are rising,” she said, calling the current economic environment a “period of historic fragility.”

OBSERVATION - They are telegraphing their punch. A global economic crisis is what they have been looking and working for for decades , now their opportunity seems to be within their grasp.

The Liberal government has admitted in writing that they have an ongoing $105.3 million contract with the World Economic Forum to introduce digital identities for travel to Canada.
Conservative MP Leslyn Lewis published an Inquiry of Ministry she sent to Transport Minister Omar Alghabra in June. The Inquiry focuses on the federal government’s Known Traveller Digital Identity (KTDI) program first introduced in 2018. The project is described as a WEF initiative to enable governments to “access verifiable claims of a traveller’s identity” using a digital identity prototype.

OBSERVATION - Another foundational piece of the overall GGR desire to control the masses. Combine this version a digital passport with financial (incorporating ESG standards) and medical data and bing - global control of citizenry. NOTE this is directly being done for Canada by the WEF - it will set the data standards that the rest of the world will have to follow prior to rolling everything up into a single global system.

Wuhan virus -

Fauci warns a NEW dangerous variant could surge this winter - despite virus rates tumbling.

OBSERVATION - As this virus has mutated over the past couple years, it follows the common path by becoming more easily spread, but at the same time less and less dangerous.

Economy -

Job growth fell short of expectations in September as efforts by the Federal Reserve to slow inflation appeared to take their toll on hiring, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 275,000. The unemployment rate was 3.5% vs the forecast of 3.7% as the labor force participation rate edged lower.

September’s payroll figure marked a deceleration from the 315,000 gain in August and tied for the lowest monthly increase since April 2021.

OBSERVATION - The onset of a recession brings fewer jobs and job cuts. Companies trying to get a head of the recession curve.

Low water levels on the Mississippi River is bringing barge traffic to a standstill. These barges carry grains, fertilizer and other goods. The rail systems are too overloaded to make up much of the shipments. With lower water levels, vessel operators and shippers are attempting to compensate by using lighter loads per barge because of draft restrictions and fewer barges per tow.
Besides delays, as of Oct. 4, the cost per ton to ship from St. Louis to the Gulf was $90.45/ton, up 218% from last year and up 379% from the 3-year average.

LOL, kalifornia you deserve it. Newsom announced an emergency session of the state legislature to address what he called the “greed of oil companies” and he received a hefty helping of mockery in return.
“I’m calling for a Special Session to address the greed of oil companies. Gas prices are too high,” tweeted Newsom.
Basically calling for a windfall profit tax. Idiot newscum fails to realize the prices are due to kalifornian regulations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sunk 600 points on Friday, driven by a disappointing jobs report that sent the index below levels not seen since just before the pandemic-driven crash of early 2020. Analysts say the steep decline on Friday was likely driven in large part by an underwhelming jobs report, which saw job growth in September decline for the second straight month in a row.

The latest bout of global financial volatility has heightened concerns about regulators’ continuing failure to resolve liquidity problems with US Treasuries — the debt that serves as a benchmark for the world.
“We have seen an appreciable and troubling deterioration in Treasury market liquidity,” said Krishna Guha, head of central bank strategy at Evercore ISI. Regulators “really haven’t delivered yet any substantial reforms,” he said. “What we are seeing at the moment is a reminder that the work is really important.”
When the Treasuries market broke down amid a panicked rush into dollar cash in March 2020, the Fed swooped in as buyer of last resort. And while it now has a backstop facility allowing the exchange of Treasuries for cash, volatility, if extreme enough, could still force the Fed into action, observers said.

OBSERVATION - I’m not a financial guru, so am working to wrap my head around this liquidity issue. But I’m seeing those who are suppose to be the smart ones becoming increasingly worried about this on my feeds. Seems to indicate that the US doesn’t have the money to fully back the bonds they have sold. In the event of a global economic crash, the US govt would be drug into the mud.

Invasion of Illegals -

Mayor Eric Adams has declared a state of emergency in New York City over the “humanitarian crisis” caused by an influx of asylum seekers from Texas. The mayor went on to say that since April, about 17,000 asylum seekers have been bused to the city. That has pushed the total number of people in NYC shelters to a new record of 61,000 people.

OBSERVATION - It has been noted that this is but a fraction of what border cities have been having to deal with over the past two years. You want to be a sanctuary city, except when it becomes time to be a sanctuary city.

Biden / Harris watch -

Biden said the risk of nuclear “Armageddon” is at its highest level since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, as Russian officials speak of the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons after suffering massive setbacks in Ukraine.

OBSERVATION - Fear, the one key element of the democrat party and the left. While we should recognize the very real possibility given how putin has painted himself into the corner over Ukraine, there comes a point where reality has to set in. The current situation is not the same as in 1962

Federal agents investigating Biden’s son Hunter have gathered sufficient evidence to charge him with tax crimes and a false statement related to a gun purchase.

Biden: ‘Let Me Start Off with Two Words: Made In America.’

CW2/Domestic violence -

A report issued last year by the watchdog group Open The Books, “The Militarization of The U.S. Executive Agencies,” found that more than 200,000 federal bureaucrats now have been granted the authority to carry guns and make arrests – more than the 186,000 Americans serving in the U.S. Marine Corps. “One hundred three executive agencies outside of the Department of Defense spent $2.7 billion on guns, ammunition, and military-style equipment between fiscal years 2006 and 2019 (inflation adjusted),” notes the report. “Nearly $1 billion ($944.9 million) was spent between fiscal years 2015 and 2019 alone.”

OBSERVATION - The govt doesn’t have this many gunslingers and not intending to be tyrannical. History shows time and again govts will use such police state powers to oppress their citizens. What is unusual about this is the wide range of alphabet agencies that carry firepower. There is no oversight or restraints. When one considers how the DoJ/FBI have resorted to intimidation raids and arrests using dozens of agents on peaceful citizens, just imagine the potential chaos these storm troopers could unleash.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

A new policy update from PayPal will permit the firm to sanction users who advance purported “misinformation” or present risks to user “wellbeing.” The financial services company, which has repeatedly deplatformed organizations and individual commentators for their political views, will expand its “existing list of prohibited activities” on November 3. Among the changes are prohibitions on “the sending, posting, or publication of any messages, content, or materials” that “promote misinformation” or “present a risk to user safety or wellbeing.” Users are also barred from “the promotion of hate, violence, racial or other forms of intolerance that is discriminatory.”
Deliberations will be made at the “sole discretion” of PayPal and may subject the user to “damages” — including the removal of $2,500 “debited directly from your PayPal account.”

Japan -

Japan plans to beef up defenses on its remote islands in the East China Sea in preparation for a Taiwan Strait crisis, a move reflecting official strategic thinking but one likely to annoy China. The Japanese defense ministry wants to expand fuel and ammunition storage facilities on the Nansei (Ryukyu) island chain, the westernmost tip of which lies just 110 kilometers (68 miles) from Taiwan, Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada was quoted as saying by Nikkei Asia on Tuesday.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - With the defeat of Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast, its ability to sustain its offensive to capture the Donbas region is in jeopardy. Logistical support to Russian operations in Southern Ukraine have taken a serious hit from the damage to the Kerch Bridge - just how much damage is being assessed..

********
Bad days continue for putin.

To celebrate Putin’s 70th birthday, Ukraine has seriously damaged the Kerch bridge.

China’s Xi failed to send birthday wishes.

Infighting by the power elite in Russia is getting more vicious by the day. Putin is putting himself in a dangerous position by tossing his generals under the bus to appease the loud, nationalist talking heads and milbloggers. Tsunami of rhetoric expected due to the attack on the Kerch Bridge should be intense.

NUKE WATCH -
The Russian Foreign Ministry - We are fully committed to the principle of not allowing a nuclear war to erupt

Logistics -
- It is estimated that Russia has fired over 60 Shahed drones, and that Iran has only manufactured around 400.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Sergey Surovkin has been appointed as a new commander of military operations in Ukraine
- Putin has fired RUS Col-General, Alexander Chaiko, Commander of the Eastern Military District after Russian losses in Kherson

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 50s and some rain over the 10 day forecast period. Images on social media show soil conditions starting to revert to Ukrainian mud (Bezdorizhzhia). Bezdorizhzhia pretty much directly translates as “roadlessness”

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Big story - Kerch Bridge goes BOOM
Ukrainian offensives in the east and south appear to still be in an operational pause moment.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Widely scattered and sporadic russian artillery strikes

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Scattered Russian artillery strikes. No word on Ukrainian actions, very possibly as tactical pause to rearm and maneuver forces to press the attack.
Mass grave with at least 180 bodies found in eastern Ukraine’s Lyman

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian forces attacked across a broad front in the east, but were turned back by Ukrainian defenses. Attacks hit 17 different towns north and south of Bahkmut.

Crimean front ———
HUGE NEWS - Overnight it appears that Ukrainan forces managed to strike the Kerch Bridge, rendering it unusable for an unknown period. This is the only bridge connecting Russia to Crimea. One highway lane had a couple of spans dropped into the water, the other was blown upwards and off its piers. A fuel supply train was also caught by the blast, set on fire and caused considerable thermal damage to the rail road bridge (support pilings and tress showing signs of major warping).
Russia has reopened the less damaged lane, but for now it appears that only light vehicles are being allowed to cross, one lane only - no truck traffic - noted so far today.
Russian claims it was a truck bomb - videos of the explosion and damage suggest that it originated beneath the bridge with an image of a boat bow possibly visible from one of the security camera footages just before the explosion.
Likely as a result occupation authorities have imposed rationing on grocery sales in Crimea.
Representative of occupation authorities of Crimea says ferry crossing is ready to be relaunched.

Ukraine’s ground offensive is still apparently in a tactical pause, potentially waiting for the shock to the morale the loss of the Kerch bridge will have.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
WOW, hitting the Kerch Bridge is one key component to the Ukrainian plan to hurt the already messed up Russian logistics, thought to be unreachable except by long range US ATACAMS missiles. Now Ukrainian interdiction of Russian C3, logistics and air defense in the Crimea and overall southern region of Ukraine will hurt doubly.
The strike on the bridge will further enflame the power struggle/blame game in Moscow. Fast becoming a potential kinetic situation and coup.

putin’s tossing generals under the bus may account for the continued attacks against Bakhmut region - the Southern Military District commander hasn’t shown up on radar for replacement so tossing soldiers into the meat grinder equates to keeping one’s job. That is about the only justification I can see for the efforts being made that at this juncture of the conflict would gain Russia no advantage.

Dynamics of the war continue to be changing rapidly. I expect Ukraine to pick the tempo back up again - possibly by the end of the weekend.

Belarus -

According to the “Zakhid” Territorial Defense forces, Russia has deployed Shahed-136 drones at Luninets airfield in Belarus.

Poland -

Polish officials said they are distributing potassium iodide tablets to regional firefighter stations in case Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is damaged.

.
Europe / NATO General -

Sweden’s domestic security agency said its preliminary investigation of leaks from two Russian gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea confirmed they were caused by “detonations,’’ and that the findings have “strengthened the suspicions of serious sabotage.”

German rail operator Deutsche Bahn says sabotage caused the massive problems with the train network in the north of the country on Saturday

Israel -

Minister of Defense Gantz instructed Israeli DF to prepare for an escalation in Israel’s northern border with Lebanon given the developments in border negotiations

Iran -

Riots continue throughout Iran and are showing little to no signs of slowing down.

French authorities have warned there is a high risk of arbitrary detention in Iran. The announcement comes one day after Iranian television aired “confessions” from two French nationals held on espionage charges.

Iraq -

The Iraqi parliament has tasked the committees of the defense and foreign affairs to cooperate with the federal and regional governments to investigate into the recent Iranian attacks on the Kurdistan Region

Lebanon -

Talks between Israel and Lebanon over the Harish gas field have collapsed, after Lapid refused to accept the latest demands from Lebanon.

The US State Department: Lebanon-Israel maritime border negotiations are in their final stage, and we remain committed to finding a solution

Senior Israeli official tells: “Israel still wants to get an agreement on the maritime border with Lebanon, appreciates the work of the U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein and is confident he can negotiate the remaining differences”

Syria -

US forces killed two top Islamic State (ISIS) leaders in an air strike in northern Syria on Thursday, two defense officials told CNN. The air strike came just hours after a US raid killed an ISIS smuggler.

Venezuela -

The Biden administration is turning to Venezuela for help after accusing OPEC+ of siding with Russia in its decision to make the largest cut in oil production since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. has proposed a deal that would unfreeze hundreds of millions of dollars of Venezuelan state funds held up in American banks. In exchange, the socialist dictatorship will allow Chevron to produce oil on its lands, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources familiar with the agreement.

OBSERVATION - Instead of turning domestically to increase production - biden goes to our enemies to enable their production.

Misc of Note -

On Friday, the entire Uvalde Consolidated Independent School District police department was put on administrative leave in response to criticism of the district’s response to the school shooting that resulted in the deaths of over a dozen students earlier this year at Robb Elementary School.

OBSERVATION - long overdue, but short of actually fixing the massive failures of the police force that day.

Black Swans -

Slower pace today.

Wuhan virus -

Florida’s Surgeon General issued a new guidance regarding mRNA vaccines: he said that young men between the ages of 18 and 39 should not be given such vaccines for covid -

“This analysis found that there is an 84% increase in the relative incidence of cardiac-related death among males 18-39 years old within 28 days following mRNA vaccination. With a high level of global immunity to COVID-19, the benefit of vaccination is likely outweighed by this abnormally high risk of cardiac-related death among men in this age group. Non-mRNA vaccines were not found to have these increased risks.
As such, the State Surgeon General recommends against males aged 18 to 39 from receiving mRNA COVID-19 vaccines.”

OBSERVATION - 84% increase is nothing to scoff at - yet that is what the CDC and WHO have been doing and continue to do by doubling and tripling down on boosters. Detailed report here -

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/20221007-guidance-mrna-covid19-vaccines-analysis.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

Economy -

On Friday’s broadcast of MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports,” Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said that the Biden administration thinks gas prices “should continue coming down,” and there have been “historic spreads between the cost of crude oil and the cost that’s being paid at the pump. So, we’re calling on those who own those gas stations to bring down the price.”

OBSERVATION - Morons in charge. Gas stations make on the average about 2% or less on a gallon of gasoline. Most of the retail price of a gallon of gas, 69 percent, goes to the cost of crude oil. Taxes are about 13 percent of the price. The refining process for the oil accounts for 8 percent of the overall charge. When gas prices rise at the pump, individual gas stations receive little added income. For many gas stations, 75 percent of their profits comes from the sale of other products, such as food, medicine and accessories. Oil bumping back up above $100/barrel again with the OPEC+ announcement.

Texas cotton harvest has been devastated by the drought. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast that more than 40% of what U.S. farmers planted in the spring would be abandoned because of drought.
The losses in cotton could cost the Texas High Plains $1.2 billion after farmers receive federal crop insurance payments, estimates Darren Hudson, director of the International Center for Agricultural Competitiveness at Texas Tech University. That leaves out others who depend on the crop, such as cotton gins and warehouses. “Any time you have a bad year in cotton, it has a role to play in the overall economy,” Hudson said.

OBSERVATION - Continuation of the La Nina has those in agriculture seriously worried that poor conditions and drought will continue. This is a stressor on inflation that the fed rate increases cannot/does not factor in.

Rumblings coming out of the Fed is the continued effort to quickly raise their benchmark interest rate to around 4.5% then holding it there, while being prepared to go higher if elevated inflation fails to show signs of easing. “Until we see any signs of inflation beginning to moderate, I don’t know how we pause,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said at the University of Kentucky Oct. 6.
The Fed is also talking hopium about a non-recession leveling out of the inflation and economy

OBSERVATION - Big businesses and economic advisors /CEOs appear to be largely convinced that the Fed policy is at the very least going to trigger a recession or worse. Increasing rates further only enhances that view.
“They’ve done a tremendous amount of tightening,” said Greg Mankiw, a Harvard University economist who advised President George W. Bush. “Recessions are painful for a lot of people. I think Powell’s right that some pain is probably inevitable…but you don’t want to cause more than is necessary.” Powell has already tossed the housing market under the bus, so his aversion to ‘pain’ must be low.

Biden / Harris watch -

Flying 72 miles aboard Air Force One to deliver a speech at the Volvo Group Trucks powertrain plant in Hagerstown, Maryland, Biden burned 3,866 lbs of fuel.
“The biggest thing that the — right now, we’re talking about it — that we were able to pass the legislation adding 600 ... or actually $368 billion for climate abatement — climate change,”
Using an average car the trip would have emitted 58 lbs. of carbon in contrast.

RUMINT - The continued rumblings that Hunter may be indicted may be a sign to biden and harris that their days as being useful idiots are numbered. Democrats are still stuck with a serious problem of how to get someone other than harris as president before the 2024 elections.

CW2/Domestic violence -

Antifa et al is on low simmer. Apart from isolated and widely varied protests supporting transgenderism, global warming, proaaborts, they have kept a lowered profile.

I recently noted a report that the number of armed/militarized elements of the govt alphabet agencies now outnumbers the US Marines. Let’s go back to the Before Times to consider this. On July 2nd, 2008—Obama delivered a speech in Boulder, Colorado in which he promised the creation and establishment of a “Civilian National Security Force.” He further promised it would be “just as powerful, just as strong, just as well funded as the US Military.” Were it not for the Trump interruption, such a security force would have been created. The Trump era put a hold on that, but didn’t stop the deep state from continuing the buildup.

IMHO it is not hard to conceive of a combining of all these ‘police’ elements together to form a praetorian like guard. Even though the military has been throughly screwed over in just the past couple years, I don’t think the marxists in charge feel they have enough control and brainwashing in effect to rely upon the military to support their plans on the American people. He could use these ‘police’ forces to bypass the military as needed.

One step I’m watching for is the creation of more ‘joint task forces’ between these agencies to develop interoperability and capability when the time comes. Not sure if this was the form 0bama envisioned, but the inertia he started could be coalescing before our eyes.

Remember - The ‘conspiracy theories’’ and tinfoil hat thoughts of previous years have proven true over the past few years.

Let me screw on my tinfoil hat and relate another thought. If the current polling is correct, Democrats are starting to free fall again in the polls after a minor bounce. Their only concern is power and maintaining it at any cost or means. wuhan and riots in 2020 served as their tool, but those fundamentals are not in action now. The big conspiracy question becomes just how far will the democrats go to preserve their power?

One scary scenario is the declaration of martial law and the suspension of elections for the duration of that emergency. Some thought DoJ/FBI baiting of the right, potentially by a show arrest of Trump on trumped up charges (no pun intended) could trigger a violent push back, justifying dropping the hammer to deal with an insurrection.

But here is another option the list - a limited nuclear strike on the US mainland or facilities. Seems biden et al are beating the drums and for some reason NYC suddenly is concerned about citizen preparation for an attack. I can’t conceive going down that trail, but is is something to keep in the back of one’s mind so as not to be surprised.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

PayPal has backtracked on a published policy that would have fined users $2,500 for spreading “misinformation,” claiming the update had gone out “in error.”
“An AUP notice recently went out in error that included incorrect information. PayPal is not fining people for misinformation and this language was never intended to be inserted in our policy. Our teams are working to correct our policy pages. We’re sorry for the confusion this has caused,” a spokesperson told National Review in a written statement.

OBSERVATION - These policies don’t get released “in error” given that a plethra of of lawyers review them and design them. They simply believed the misinformation given them that the public is in favor of such censorship.

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

Army National Guard is facing the possibility of their second year of seeing a net loss of soldiers, with fewer qualified applicants signing up than those leaving the service.

OBSERVATION - Tied to the active duty Army, who really wants to serve under today’s marxist woke leadership. As a veteran, I cannot recommend to anyone volunteer and enter the service at this time. Here in my corner of the Redoubt it is estimated by the VA that one out of every ten Montanans is a military veteran. And the town I live in the per capita number is even higher (highest in the state IIRC).

China -

China continues to stress Taiwan with plane and ship incursions on a daily basis.

North/South Korea -

North Korea fired 2 short-range ballistic missiles from Munchon area towards Japan, landing just out side its economic exclusion zone. An investigation into what kind of missiles were launched includes the possibility that they were submarine-launched missiles according to Japan’s defense minister.

OBSERVATION - Some try to link the launches to SK naval exercises with the USS Reagan. Kim tossing a lot of rockets into the water for a questionable goal - other than tweaking the SK govt to respond by wasting rockets of their own.

Japan -

The devaluation the yen has hurt Japan’s goals to modernize and expand their military. As a result, Japan may need to spend more to increase their readiness in the face of NK and Chinese aggressiveness.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces are in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. Infighting between putin supporters, talking heads/milbloggers, mercenary leadership and Kremlin generals will only serve to create more problems in pursuing the fight. New conscripts are showing up at the front with absolutely no training or preparation .

********
Bad days continue for putin.

Food shops in Sevastopol are ordered not to sell more than 3 kg of goods to one customer.

Russia claims vehicle portions of the Kerch Bridge is reopened for light vehicle traffic - outbound from Crimea only at this time. Ferries being reestablished to handle vehicle traffic.
Rail bridge is still wounded. It has two tracks, the Russians reportedly managed to get the southern track cleared, but on the northern track the burned fuel tankers are still blocking the route. Many are still commenting on the fact that the rail bridge is principally made from steel and was enveloped in flames for hours - raising the likely hood that there is severe thermal damage. Russia may be gambling that it will hold together as it is critical to their war effort.

NUKE WATCH -
More rumblings and propaganda on both sides over the use and where tactical nukes would be used. The nuclear hype is higher now than when the war started.

RUMINT -
Wagner affiliated channel Grey Zone Claims that Russia’s defense minister Shoigu has resigned following the attack on the Crimea bridge. NOTE - Wagner is essentially at war against Shoigu and the top brass in the Kremlin. Doubtful that putin will can Shoigu any time soon - he needs a scape goat.

Logistics -
- The Kerch Bridge is reportedly open again for rail traffic. focus is on getting the bridge reopened as soon as possible without regard for potential risks

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Wagner Group is reportedly reaching out to terror groups/drug cartels in Central and South America for volunteers to join their ‘organization’ - likely to fight in Ukraine.
- Putin has appointed Gen. Sergey Surovikin as the new commander of his ‘Special Military Operation’. Gen. Alexander Dvornikov has been fired. Surovikin is the 9th commander of RU’s invasion of Ukraine- few have lasted longer than 30 days. Surovikin, who has been heading up the ‘South’ grouping of troops in Ukraine and Donbass, will assume overall command of Russian forces, the Defense Ministry announced on Saturday. According to various media reports, Surovikin was given the nickname ‘General Armageddon’ by his colleagues, citing his hardline and unorthodox approach to military operations. Surovikin also has the current blessings from Wagner and Chechen leadership. Under his leadership, Russian and mercenary forces have doggedly attacked the Bakhmut and surrounding towns/cities - so far with little to no avail.

Economic Impact
- Shortages of essentials Crimea with rationing.

Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Zaporizhzhia hammered hard by Russian S300 missiles - see below.
Things appear to be rolling again in the east with Ukraine recapturing another town and getting closer to the logistic hub of Svatove. Continued Russian attacks Bakhmut and adjacent.
Russian forces west of the Dnipir River appear to be attempting to reorganize and establish new lines of defense against the Ukrainian offensive in that region.
Assessment of the extent of damage the hit on the Kerch Bridge to Russian logistical supply to maintain the war effort in southern Ukraine is still ongoing.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Widely scattered and sporadic Russian artillery strikes

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukrainian Forces continue to advance toward Svatove city as they have liberated the village of Stel’makhivk, Luhansk Oblast. This is less than 15 km away from Svatove.
Considerable Russian artillery fire along the border northeast of Kharkiv.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Continued attacks with accompanying artillery towards the Bakhmut area that were unsuccessful and turned back

Crimean front ———
Zaporizhzhia has been hit hard by S300 missile/artillery attacks lately.
Friday, 30th September - missile attack at humanitarian column: 32 killed, 92 wounded
Thursday, 6th October, - attack in city center: 17 killed, 8 wounded
Sunday, 9th October, - new missile attack: 17 killed, 40 wounded

Limited vehicular traffic on the Kerch Bridge. Questionable rail traffic.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Wow I may have been right about the general commanding the southern forces. Now Army General Sergey Surovikin is running the whole show. Explains the continued attacks on Bahkmut and probably why he was selected. Some say his methodology to think outside the box and innovate tactically makes him a threat. However, the overall command of the Russian war machine in Ukraine is in shambles. He’s getting his ranks filled by very poorly motivated and outright hostile conscripts, who’ve been force to essentially buy their own combat gear, with no associated armor or tanks or even a modicum of training. Add to it a dysfunctional air force and artillery corps suffering from ammo shortages and increasing equipment failures. Throw in an aggressive partisan resistance and western weapons that have pinpoint accuracy (HIMARS), and he has his hands full. No doubt Wagner and Chechen leaders will be forceful in their influence of Sorovikin, creating more tension between regular Russian commanders and the mercenaries.

I expect Ukrainian activity to rise in the east towards Svatove while in Kherson things to idle while Ukraine better maps out its next steps.

Israel -

Energean which operates the Karish natural gas rig announced it has started to test the underwater pipes by pumping gas from the shore to the rig. Israel notified Lebanon through the U.S. that this is only a test and not the beginning of gas production.

Israeli media is reporting that Iranian-backed Iraqi hackers hacked the Energean and Israel Gas websites

OBSERVATION - Israel and Lebanon are reaching the end game for negotiations and are flexing muscles to gain final concessions. Lebanon has no real military force to threaten Israel with - thus it falls on Hezbollah who are the defacto rulers of the country. I don’t see Hezbollah doing any thing serious against the current ships drilling in the disputed gas field. It would trigger a war that Hezbollah is not ready to fight at this time.

Iran -

The police force joined the people in a part of Tehran for protests. Protests continued throughout Iran along with general strikes.

OBSERVATION - This is an important junction. The switching of the sides for police may well result in some of the regular army forces doing the same. Imans losing control of their enforcers. This could build into common police/military versus IRGC / Hezbollah enforcers fight. The mullahs have lost the information/propaganda component of the uprising and are losing their grip on the more lethal elements of the country.

Iran’s state-run broadcaster was apparently hacked on air Saturday, with a news bulletin interrupted by a protest against the country’s leader. A mask appeared on the screen, followed by an image of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei with flames around him.

Lebanon -

See Israel above

Put your track shoes on - we are starting the week off at a sprint.

Globalism / Great Reset -

Swept behind the headlines, the farmer protest in the netherlands has once again reached a boiling point. The Dutch government has announced that they’ll be speeding up the conversion of farmland. 500-600 farmers will be forced to sell their land to the state in the next year. The farmers have announced new protests.

Wuhan virus -

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced that it will publish COVID-19 cases and deaths on a weekly basis, marking a major shift in its reporting since the start of the pandemic.
“To allow for additional reporting flexibility, reduce the reporting burden on states and jurisdictions, and maximize surveillance resources, CDC is moving to a weekly reporting cadence,” the federal agency said in a statement last week.

OBSERVATION - wuhan has been ridden into the ground. In spite of the continuing ‘threat’ fauci claims it to be, it is a nothing burger and no longer serves its purpose to strike fear into the population.

Economy -

Early look at the tea leaves suggests that U.S. data due on Thursday will show inflation at a hot 8.1% year-on-year rate in September, but down from 8.3% in August. Core inflation is expected to have risen to 6.5%, from 6.3% previously.

Invasion of Illegals -

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has given cellphones, with the intent of tracking their whereabouts, to more than 255,000 border crossers and illegal aliens released into the United States over the last year. The cost to American taxpayers is more than $360,000 every day. The phones are meant to be used so the agency can track their locations. The phones cannot be used to search the internet or make other calls.

OBSERVATION - If I got a phone that I couldn’t call any one else with, you know what would happen to it - into the trash.

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

Five warships from the U.S., Japan and South Korea held a ballistic missile defense exercise in the Sea of Japan as part of the ongoing military response to this week’s North Korean intermediate-range ballistic missile test over the Japanese home islands, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said on Thursday.
Guided-missile cruiser USS Chancellorsville (CG-62) and guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold (DDG-65) — both attached to the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group — held the drill with Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyers JS Chokai (DDG-176) and JS Ashigara (DDG-178) and Republic of Korea Navy destroyer ROKS Sejong the Great (DDG-991).

North/South Korea -

North Korea’s seven recent missile launches were all “tactical nuclear” drills personally overseen by leader Kim Jong Un, state media said Monday, adding that they should serve as a “severe warning to the enemies.”

White House National Security Council Spokesman John Kirby says the Biden administration is now willing to meet with North Korean officials “without preconditions” to “find a diplomatic path forward,” after dictator Kim Jong Un fired a nuclear-capable ballistic missile over Japan last week for the first time in five years.

OBSERVATION - Kim’s temper tantrums are getting what he wants - US capitulation and a split between US/SK policies.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

********
Putin chaired a meeting of his security council today - an unusual occurrence, as these meetings are usually held on Fridays. He confirmed the massive missile attack over night a response the ‘terror’ attack on the Kersh Bridge and warns “should attempts to carry out terrorist attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation continue, the response will be harsh and proportionate to the level of the threats”. RUMORS persist that an unspoken component of the meeting was establishing conditions for a nuclear strike.

Some of the missiles reportedly passed over Moldova, sparking reaction from the country.

NUKE WATCH -
I like to practice what I preach here - particularly when it comes to using the OODA loop to evaluate issues, especially like this one. My earlier assessments of Russia being unlikely to use nukes in the Ukraine theatre is shifting to it becoming more likely. putin is under tons of pressure from his nationalist base to eliminate ethnic Ukrainians from the map - genocide. This has currently been reflected in his continued indiscriminate bombing of civilian and residential areas of Ukrainian cities (particularly the recent attacks). That indicates a callous view of life. He has trapped himself into a corner and now is becoming more dangerous. If his position gets further threatened, he may well strike out with a nuke.

Kerch Bridge update -
I’ve studied analysis done by others regarding the source of the blast that crippled the bridge. My initial thoughts was a vessel of some kind was able to be maneuvered beneath the bridge and detonated. That theory is officially out, IMHO. Additional video and imagery of the time of the blast now shows better that the suspect semi was the source of the explosion. Exploding imagery compared to the damage matches better to a massive truck bomb.

Crimean authorities ask residents not to use the Crimean Bridge unless absolutely necessary, due to the limited capacity of the bridge after the blast that hit it. There was a traffic jam of vehicles trying to depart Crimea earlier - the only direction of travel currently permitted. Contrary to Russian announcements, there are unconfirmed reports that no trains running on Kerch Bridge yet.

RUMINT -
Shoigu and Gerasimov were reportedly removed from their positions as the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation and the Head of the General Staff, based on a Wagner-affiliated telegram channel’s claim and clarified and hasn’t been independently verified.
NOTE - This kind of ‘propaganda’ indicates the war between Wagner et al and the MoD is hot and heavy.

Logistics -
- Rumint. Very little fuel and lubricants are reaching Russian tanks in Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions. The invaders are obliged to dig in their tanks and use them like artillery pieces for a static defense.
- RUMINT is that Ukrainian forces are fighting unarmed Russian troops.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Military units raised by various regions are now having problems coming up with the promised money to pay these conscripts.
- Current ‘mobilization’ is characterized as being very unfavorably received by the citizenry.

Economic Impact -
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree installing a new operator for a massive international oil-and-gas project in Russia’s Far East, affecting billions of investment dollars from major U.S., Japanese, and Indian companies. The move toward nationalization further complicates U.S. Exxon Mobil’s efforts to exit Russia since international sanctions were imposed over Putin’s order of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February. Exxon has a 30-percent stake in the operations of Sakhalin-1.

Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Week starting off like a fireball. Russia launched 83 missiles on Ukraine - more than 43 of which were shot down - in an ongoing attack on the country. At least 17 cities throughout Ukraine were hit. This constitutes one of the largest attacks of its type since the start of the war. The missiles, included Kalibr, Iskander and Kh-101, launched from Russian bombers over the Caspian Sea and Naval vessels from the Black Sea. Rumors also suggest Russia also used Iranian drones and S300s as well.
Civilian casualties are continuing to be reported and a number of key infrastructure facilities have been hit, causing widespread power outages across the country. Among the key infrastructure hit includes parks, and apartments.

Kyiv front ——
Overnight missile strikes- see 24 hr round up

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Overnight missile strikes- see 24 hr round up
Widely scattered and sporadic Russian artillery strikes

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Overnight missile strikes- see 24 hr round up

Russia attempted several ground attacks northeast of Kharkiv which reportedly were repulsed.

Ukraine forces continued to push eastward, liberating several more cities and closing in on Svatove. Some elements within 17 km of the town.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Overnight missile strikes- see 24 hr round up

Fighting intensified around Bakhmut area with Russia reportedly making minor gains. Unconfirmed report that Wagner group forces have received recruits from Russian prisons, bolstering its forces for the attacks.

Crimean front ———
Overnight missile strikes- see 24 hr round up

Ukrainian forces are pushing southward again along the west bank of the Dnipir River in what appears to be the early stages of another major envelopment of Russian forces. Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces do not have the necessary fuel and lubricants to run their armor/tanks and have resorted to digging them in as pillboxes.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Overnight missile strikes- see 24 hr round up

Russian Territory -—
A large blast was noted in Belgorod overnight, may have been associated with a malfunction of a Iskander missile launch

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
As spectacular as the missile attacks overnight were, they are unlikely to effect any changes at the tactical level. They were designed to strike fear and demoralize the Ukrainian people. So far the people seem to be rebounding from the attacks with more resolve. The consumption of so many missiles in one shot is believed to have put a big dent in the remaining Russian stockpiles and it is questionable just how many more attacks like this they can sustain.

Ukraine offensive continues on in both the east and west (south). Russians in the Kherson area may be getting set up to be encircled again and if the rumors of no POL (petroleum, oil and lubricants) are true, they are setting themselves up to be taken out by a more mobile force.

Russia appears to be intensifying the fight for Bakhmut as its forces there appear to be receiving the bulk of the reinforcements from the current conscript mobilization. While these attacks are fixing a certain amount of the Ukrainian army in place, they are well positioned and trained for this fight, whereas the Russian replacements have no clue as to what kind of meat grinder they are walking into.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Moldova says that three russian cruise missiles crossed Moldovan air space on monday. Russian ambassador has been summoned.

Belarus -

Lukashenka says he and Putin have agreed to deploy a joint regional group of troops. Ukrainian intelligence is reporting several Belarus military battalions have repositioned near the border including mechanized, airborne and special forces, but we have seen similar maneuvers before, so it may just be more propaganda.

Lukashenka is trying to justify the action by claiming “NATO and some European countries in considering of aggression against Belarus”. Lukashenka has a meeting with the military and security forces at 11 am

OBSERVATION - Belarus is loathe to enter independently, they’ll get their rears kicked. Combining with Russian soldiers may give them more backbone. Currently the best Belarus forces, about 6 BTGs and some airborne and special forces are training in western Belarus. If they enter the war from this location, many suspect that they’ll try to push south to interdict western supply lines coming from Poland. This ‘training;’ area is also close to Russian Kalingrad, where they could pick up the Russian forces for the ‘joint’ operation.

IF Belarus joins the war, it will be hard for Poland and the Baltic States to say out of it. It will further place Lukashenka in a dangerous position as its armed forces from the start have refused to get into the war and he also faces a potential coup by sending loyal forces south.

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Europe / NATO General -

European Union describes the “indiscriminate” Russian attacks on civilians in Ukraine as amounting to a “war crime”. The EU describes the missile strikes being seen in Kyiv and other cities as “barbaric and cowardly”.
Foreign Affairs spokesman Peter Stano condemns the “heinous” attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure in the “strongest possible terms”.

French President Emmanuel Macron held an emergency call with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky. Macron reaffirmed his support for Ukraine and expressed “extreme concern” at the reports of civilian casualties, the Elysée Palace said in a statement.

Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also spoken to Zelensky, assuring him of support from Berlin and from the other G7 states, a German government spokesman has confirmed.

Poland’s foreign minister Zbigniew Rau called the missile strikes “an act of barbarism and a war crime”, adding: “Russia cannot win this war. We stand behind you Ukraine!”

UK Foreign Minister James Cleverly echoed these thoughts, stating that Russian attacks on civilian leaders were “unacceptable” and a “demonstration of weakness by [President Vladimir] Putin, not strength”.

Iran -

Protests continue across the country, current estimated death toll stands at about 187.

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