Hump day . ..
Heads up - Thursday’s post may be a wash as I’ll be on the road again.
Globalism / Great Reset -
Citing unanticipatedly broad and persistent inflationary pressures, the International Monetary fund has cut its global growth projections for 2023, saying,” The worst is yet to come.” IMF chief economist Pierre-Oliver Gourinchas said 2023 would see a “broad-base” slowdown with the contractions of a third of the top economies, with the U.S., China, and euro-zone economies expected to “stall.” Goruinchas added that now was the time for people to “batten down the hatches” and prepare for difficulties as “2023 will feel like a recession.” (FO)
OBSERVATION - I think tis is an understatement, IMF is seeing something bad and is trying to spin it. It is exactly the kind economic turmoil the GGR is seeking to trigger it Great Reset.
Wuhan virus -
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will not release its review of post-COVID-19-vaccination heart inflammation. The CDC has been performing abstractions on reports of post-vaccination myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System.
But the agency is saying that federal law prevents it from releasing the results.
The abstractions “are considered medical records which are withheld in full from disclosure,” the CDC told The Epoch Times in a recent letter, responding to a Freedom of Information Act request.
OBSERVATION - this information is potentially damning to the CDC and eventually Phfzer/Modnera. The courts will likely rule against the CDC, eventually. Until then they will try to keep a tight lid on this. However, if you’ve been monitoring this plandemic, the link has been exposed for a while now. What this does is demonstrate govt complacency in that THEY recognized it and didn’t do anything until outside analysis forced them to.
Pfizer executive Janine Small admitted to the European Parliament with a laugh that the company did not test if its COVID-19 vaccine stopped transmission of the virus before the vaccine was put on the market. In a video released by Dutch Member of the European Parliament Rob Roos, he remarks, emphasized the importance of this admission. “This removes the entire legal basis for the COVID passport, the COVID passport that led to massive institutional discrimination as people lost access to essential parts of society,” Roos said. “I find this to be shocking, even criminal.”
OBSERVATION - Under the US emergency use authorization IIRC, Phizer is shielded from lawsuits unless there was fraud involved. More and more, statements like and other previously hidden reports are laying the foundation here for just such a claim of fraud. Tied tightly to the hip are fauci et al and the collusion to keep this information under wraps and willfully mislead the public.
Economy -
According to data from Freightwaves, over the summer, import volumes to the US began dropping off a cliff, indicating that consumer demand was indeed being affected by inflation/stagflation. Inbound containers have dropped over 36% since May 24. Now, trans-pacific shipping rates have also plunged at least 75%. The huge decline in volumes and shipping rates signal an important shift in the US economy and are a warning of changes to come. Reduction in shipping reflects the buildup of inventory seen in stores today.
OBSERVATION - Analysts viewing this decline as a reflection of companies backing off production / inventories in anticipation of a recession. WhatI see being hotly debated is the intensity/depth of the recession as well as other compounding factors
NOTE - EARNINGS REPORTS will be coming out and they should give an eye to the transjectory of the economy for the coming months.
Shortages in the Californian tomato crop due to the drought are coming forward. As a major producer, higher prices will once again reverberate through the food supply in the form of higher prices.
Biden / Harris watch -
In a CNN interview, biden was asked - Q: “Should the American people prepare for a recession?”
BIDEN: “No...I don’t think there will be a recession. If it is, it’ll be a very slight recession.”
OBSERVATION - Fundamentally, we are in a technical recession. But never forget, this is the administration that told us repeatedly that the inflation we are experiencing is only ‘transitory’.
CW2/Domestic violence -
Since 2020, the armament of the Antifa affiliated groups has evolved from shotguns/bolt action rifles, to AR-15 platforms and full kit. During this same period leftist gun groups like the The Socialist Rifle Association, John Brown Gun Clubs, Redneck Revolt, and others have grown and gotten more sophisticated, including training by former military. The days when we could laugh this element of, now we need to recognize this as a real threat, particularly in urban settings.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
PayPal’s mea culpa was more an obfuscation designed to deflect criticism. PayPal’s current Acceptable Use Policy still threatens $2,500 fines per infraction for promoting “hate” and “intolerance” — language the Left regularly uses to characterize (and demonize) speech that is critical of its insane policies. PayPal stock took a big hit again yesterday.
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
White House officials confirmed they’re reviewing a request from Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry to send U.S. or UN troops to help quell unrest.
China -
Xi’s third term as president looking to be in the bag, baggage from his current tenure continues to hit the country. The IMF has cut its growth forecasts for China Tuesday, saying China’s zero-COVID policies and nearly collapsed property market will significantly slow growth through the end of 2023.
OBSERVATION - The economic chickens will eventually come home to roost for Xi and China.
Japan -
Japan’s 10-year government bonds untraded for 3rd straight session, the first time ever, per Bloomberg. Concerns are Japan’s ability to repay.
OBSERVATION - From what I read, the fall of the yen is due to the aggressive rated increases by the Fed which have strengthened the dollar overseas. The smart guys say this is an indication to expect further devaluation of the Japanese yen. This is also not a problem isolated to Japan, but similar is affecting other countries - especially in Europe.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces are in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. Infighting between putin supporters, talking heads/milbloggers, mercenary leadership and Kremlin generals will only serve to create more problems in pursuing the fight. New conscripts are showing up at the front with absolutely no training or preparation .
NUKE WATCH -
Both UK and U.S intelligence continue to say there are no indications Russia is preparing to use any nuclear weapons.
Kerch Bridge update -
Four days since the attack and reports are that no trains have been observed on the Kerch Bridge. This would indicate no (military) supplies for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia since 4 days, at least not in large quantities.
Logistics -
- The Russian Federation is likely extracting ammunition and other materiel from Belarusian storage bases.
- There are reports Russia has ordered another 2,000 plus Iranian-made Shahed UAVs.
- There are unconfirmed reports and indications Russia’s resupply of Kalibr missiles is problematic and active quantities low, impacting used by Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 50s and some rain over the 10 day forecast period. Images on social media show soil conditions starting to revert to Ukrainian mud (Bezdorizhzhia). Bezdorizhzhia pretty much directly translates as “roadlessness”
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia’s missile assault is winding down with only 29 missiles launched overnight.
Ukraine continues to regain terrain, although at a slower pace while Russia continues to try to capture Bakhmut.
Kyiv front ——
More missiles overnight
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporatic artillery across the sector.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Luhansk Oblast east of the Oskil River in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna. Ukraine forces have gained artillery control of major roads between Svatove and Kreminna
Donetsk Oblast ——
Heavy fighting continues in this region with Ukrainian military repelling Russian attacks near Mykolaivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Mayorsk, Pervomaiske, and Krasnohorivka,
Scattered artillery westward along the LOC to Zaporizhzhia.
Russian forces are constructing significant defensive positions in the western Luhansk regions including large very wide trench barriers, concrete obstacles and minefields.
Crimean front ———
Scattered Russian artillery along the LOC. Ukranian forces continue to press southward towards Kherson with claims of liberating Novovasylivka, Novohryhorivka, Nova Kamianka, Tryfonivka and Chervone in Beryslav district of Kherson region.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
More missile/drone atttacks overnight.
Russian Territory -—
Air defense activity was noted over the Belgorod area.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
There are reports that partisan cells targeted a Russian administrative chief yesterday in an assassination style shooting near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant, with reports he was hospitalized in a critical condition.
OUTLOOK ——
While Ukraine will continue gaining in the east and south, I expect progress to slow as they work to get their logistics to keep up with the advance. Success in the east has really put pressure on Russian forces there already suffering from lack of logistics support. Same in the south.
Belarus remains in the news, but if the reports that Russia is draining them of their ammo and armor are correct, then the notion that Russian forces are setting conditions for a ground attack against Ukraine from Belarus becomes improbable. OSINT and government intel agencies don’t see an invasion from the north in the near term. One alternative is that Russia is using the joint operation to train the conscripts. When that training’s over - in about a month, then the risk of an attack from the north grows, with Russian forces taking Belarus equiptment while leaving Belrusian military behind to protect the regime.
Belarus -
Belarus says troops deployed alongside Russian forces is ‘purely defensive’
Four Russian fighter jets were intercepted and forced to return to base after they infringed on Polish air space, according to Italy’s air force.
Aeronautica Militare announced that the squadron took off from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, and flew an aggressive path which took them through Polish skies - though the post did not specify when the infringement occurred.
Italy quickly scrambled four Eurofighter Typhoon jets in response which took off from Poland’s Malbork air base and intercepted the Russian aircraft, ‘forcing’ them to return back to Kaliningrad.
OBSERVATION - Very dangerous action by the Russians, which could result in a shoot down. Provocations like this could start a war between Russia and NATO.
Iran -
Protests continue as does internet disruptions, believed to be a tool being used by the regime to limit coordination between protestors. Protests are the heaviest in Kurds portions of the country (the girl killed was kurdish) with the most violence by govt forces reported
Iraq -
Fighting between pro- and anti- Iranian militias reported around Basra.
Saudi Arabia -
Biden administration cancelled a meeting of the US-GCC Working Group on Iran, according to a letter obtained by news platform Semafor. The meeting that was reportedly cancelled was the US-GCC Working Group on Iran, which would have focused on integrated air and missile defense.
The cancelling of the meeting appears to be a major follow-through of the administration’s announcement earlier on Tuesday, when national security spokesman John Kirby said the US would be reviewing its relationship with Saudi Arabia, following a decision by Opec+ to cut the production of oil by two million barrels a day.
“I would expect that the multilateral, mid-level engagements you’re referring to will be rescheduled at some point,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said in response to a reporter’s question during a news briefing on Tuesday. “This is a good time to reevaluate” the relationship with Saudi Arabia, Kirby told reporters on Tuesday.
OBSERVATION - Biden said there would be ‘consequences’ to OPEC+ decreasing production and now it is shoeing itself via pulling out of integrated air and missile defense talks. These talks are critical in coordinating efforts to keep Iran corralled in if they obtain nuclear weapons as well as addressing regional threats by the Houthi.
Was able to get an update done before hitting the road. Good thing too, much hitting the fan today.
Globalism / Great Reset -
The head of the U.N. weather agency says the war in Ukraine “may be seen as a blessing” from a climate perspective because it is accelerating the development of and investment in green energies over the longer term — even though fossil fuels are being used at a time of high demand now.
The comments from Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, came as the world is facing a shortfall in energy needs — prompted in part by economic sanctions against key oil and natural gas producer Russia — and prices for fossil fuels have risen.
Taalas acknowledged that the war in Ukraine has been a “shock for the European energy sector,” and has prompted an upturn in the use of fossil energies. From the five- to 10-year timescale, it’s clear that this war in Ukraine will speed up our consumption of fossil energy, and it’s speeding up this green transition,” Taalas said.
“So we are going to invest much more in renewable energy, energy-saving solutions,” and some small-scale nuclear reactors are likely to come online by 2030 as “part of the solution,” he said.
“So from climate perspective, the war in Ukraine may be seen as a blessing,” Taalas added.
Taalas was speaking as WMO issued a new report that said the supply of electricity from cleaner sources of energy needs to double within the next eight years to curb an increase in global temperatures.
OBSERVATION - SMH, these people are completely nuts. The apparently see going back into the dark ages a good thing, with shorter life expectancy, perpetual hunger (except for elites like them), continued wars over resources.
IMHO - Tulsi Gabbard’s stinging rebuke of the progressive democrat party is one for the books, however, remember she is a scorpion and not one of us. She remains a graduate of WEF’s seminar for leaders and continues to be a supporter of its causes and goals.
Economy -
BREAKING - According to data released this morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) prices rose 8.2% for September which is up 0.4% month over month, an acceleration from August’s 0.1% and July’s 0.0%. Previous hopes that the Fed had turned the corner on inflation are over. Core CPI, or prices minus food and energy, is up 0.6% month over month, the same as last month. Food prices are up 0.8% month over month. Food at home (from the grocery store) is up 13% over the past year, while food away from home (restaurants) is up 8.5% over the past year.
This follows the Producer price inflation report yesterday where prices have risen by 0.4% to 8.5% in September — more than expected as inflation persists.
The increase in CPI is even more concerning given the slight decrease energy costs (gasoline) and commodities. Now both of those categories are increasing once again - and will further impact September’s numbers.
EXPECT another 75 basis point increase in the prime by the Feds later this year at their next meeting.
(FO) Even Fed officials acknowledge the risks that further rate hikes will impose on foreign currencies and bond markets. Last week, Richmond Fed Bank President Thomas Barkin used the term “financial contagion” to describe the risk. What’s happening now is that foreign central banks are being forced to buy bonds to keep yields down. When bond demand falls, bond issuers have to increase yields to attract buyers, otherwise there is no bond issuance to fund governments, corporations, or anyone else issuing bonds. Higher yields threaten financial stability because they make servicing debt more expensive. The worst-case scenario is that the rush to sell bonds outweighs the central banks’ ability or willingness to buy the bonds, and you get a bond market crash. Bank of England and the Bank of Japan have narrowly adverted such a scenario, but are not out of the woods yet. They are not the only central banks in this situation it is global and pose an impending global financial crisis.
Finally , the Fed in their September report are concerned that a wage-price spiral may be forming. “A number of participants commented that a wage-price spiral had not yet developed but cited its possible emergence as a risk.” The wage-price spiral occurs when wages increase, which leads to increased spending, which leads to increased price inflation, which leads to higher wages to keep pace with the inflation.
OBSERVATION - These indicators point to the development of even more severe economic conditions going into and perhaps through 2023. Definitely does not bode well for the democrats at the midterm polls.
Forecasts for soybean harvests in the U.S. were reduced by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, resulting in more concerns over tight global inventories. Corn forecasts also fell, renewing scrutiny over food shortages next year.
OBSERVATION- Soybeans are a critical crop for many. One aspect that has caught my personal attention has been the price increase on Textured Vegetable Protein (TVP) i buy in bulk at my local Winco. Prices used to be under a dollar a couple years and now are approaching 4 dollars/ pound. Cant even get imitation bacon bits in bulk (flavored TVP). PM me for why TVP is important for my food pantry.
Invasion of Illegals -
Just hours before Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas joined a White House press conference during which a story of Border Patrol agents supposedly “whipping” migrants was shared, it has been revealed that he was informed that the allegations had been debunked.
The email, obtained by the Heritage Foundation via a Freedom of Information Act request (FOIA), shows assistant secretary of DHS public affairs, Marsha Espinosa, notifying Mayorkas and other DHS leadership of a news article that revealed that the photographer who took the images in question did not see any whipping, after President Joe Biden claimed otherwise earlier that day. In her message, Espinosa highlighted the comments where the photographer directly said that he did not witness whipping.
OBSERVATION - Mayorkas is one of the personifications of evil in the biden regime. He ranks second only to Fauci among those most deserving of jail time.
In a record-breaking year for illegal immigration, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is finally doing something about it, but only as it applies to Venezuelans. “Venezuelans should not travel to Mexico to pursue entry into the United States,” the Department of Homeland Security says.
“Effective immediately, Venezuelans who enter the United States between ports of entry, without authorization, will be returned to Mexico,” DHS said.
The effort to reduce “irregular migration of Venezuelans” includes a new process to “lawfully and safely bring up to 24,000 qualifying Venezuelans into the United States,” but only after they are vetted beforehand. “Venezuelans approved via this process will be authorized on a case-by-case basis to travel to the United States by air directly to an interior port of entry, thus relieving pressure at the border. Once in the United States, they will be eligible to apply for work authorization,” DHS said.
Venezuelans are ineligible if they:
— have been ordered removed from the United States in the previous five years;
— have crossed without authorization between ports of entry after the date of announcement;
— have irregularly entered Mexico or Panama after the date of announcement, or are a permanent resident or dual national of any country other than Venezuela, or currently hold refugee status in any country; or
— have not completed vaccinations and other public health requirements.
DHS said the U.S. will not implement the new process unless Mexico accepts the return of Venezuelan nationals who bypass the process and attempt to enter irregularly.
OBSERVATION- Would one dare to call this ‘racist’?
Biden / Harris watch -
In a speech in Colorado, Biden shamelessly claimed his son Beau died in Iraq.
FACT - Biden’s son Beau died of brain cancer at Walter Reed in Bethesda, Maryland in 2015.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
A top federal financial regulator said he was considering investigating PayPal for a policy that it has now rescinded that would fine users $2,500 for spreading “misinformation.”
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra told CNBC suggested that the policy, which PayPal said over the past weekend was issued in error, was too extreme. “I’ve never actually never heard of a payment system thinking that it could fine someone for legal expression that their users are making,” Chopra told the outlet on Wednesday.
OBSERVATION - As of yesterday, PayPal still had not rescinded the policy, but allegedly modified as to what offending “misinformation” it was addressing. It should be clear to many that the efforts of PayPal to censor by ‘fining” users is a beta test for a broader, tech initiated effort to shut down opposing thoughts and opinions.
POLITICAL FRONT -
A note to many of you who think the midterms (or even the 2024 elections) will solve our problems and return us to the BEFORE TIMES normality - WAKE UP. If there is one thing one should be gaining from the past two years (and especially the last 14) is that our country and world has passed a tipping point - there is no going back, only the rate of decline slowed.
The January 6 Committee plans to hold their last public, televised hearing today. The hearing will reportedly focus on internal Secret Service communications. The Committee is expected to release a final report by the end of the year.
OBSERVATION - Many see this as a sign of failure - this show committee failed to sway the voters opinions on the J6 protests and are now in the sweeping it under the carpet mode. This is likely due to the belief that democrats will be losing control of the House and want to delay/ obfuscate Republican lead investigations of the committee’s actions.
China -
CCP congress meetings are ongoing and expect more analysis as news comes out from them. One quick item of interest is the stated goal of China to look to addressing/solving internal problems over involvement with outside issues.
North/South Korea -
North Korea’s leader Kim reportedly observed the test-firing of two long-range strategic cruise missiles yesterday. The cruise missiles travelled 2,000km (1,240 miles) over the sea, according to KCNA, which said the projectiles hit their intended, but unspecified, targets.
South Korean President Yoon announced his country is considering the deployment of nuclear weapons, citing the threat from North Korea. Yoon broke from his previous stance of nuclear non-proliferation, saying it was a priority for his country to “pursue effective and reinforced implementation of extended deterrence under any circumstances.”
OBSERVATION - SK (like Japan) is technologically advanced enough to go nuclear in a very short period. This change in policy may spark a regional nuclear arms race.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces are in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. Infighting between putin supporters, talking heads/milbloggers, mercenary leadership and Kremlin generals will only serve to create more problems in pursuing the fight. New conscripts are showing up at the front with absolutely no training or preparation .
********
The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday voted to condemn Russia’s annexation of four occupied areas of Ukraine amid the ongoing war, but four countries sided with Russia in the vote.
Of the U.N.’s 193-member body, 143 voted in favor of the resolution criticizing Russia’s “illegal so-called referendums,” with 35 abstaining, according to an update. Syria, North Korea, Belarus and Nicaragua joined Russia as the five opposing votes. China, India, South Africa and Pakistan were among the 35 abstaining from Wednesday’s vote.
OBSERVATION - A show vote, nothing more as it has no teeth.
NUKE WATCH -
Strategic nuclear forces conducted a routine exercise.
Kerch Bridge update -
The damaged Crimean Bridge being repaired by the Russians with the help of a floating crane. Both the vehicle portions as well as the rail line show signs of construction.
NOTE - As a critical supply route, I suspect that Russia is taking some shortcuts and risks in order to get the rail line in operation (for war supplies) and vehicle lanes for backup as well as evacuating Russian personnel.
Logistics -
- Reports that Russia is attempting to update its stored inventory of T-62 tanks to bring them up to a modicum modern war standards.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- More and more reports of recently mobilized conscripts being captured in the east by Ukraine after being tossed (their words) into defensive trenches half -filled with water and no food or supplies. NOTE - there may be a high propaganda angle by Ukraine, but it has been confirmed that conscripts ‘mobilized’ have been placed the front lines within days of being drafted.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 50s and 60s with little to no rain 10 day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Situation relatively stable overnight, with very little action by either side. Russia continued to use its artillery resources to shoot along the LOC in the east as well as scattered shooting in the south.
Russia used more Iranian drones in attacks overnight, but gained no tactical advantage from them.
Kyiv front ——
Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones hit Kyiv overnight
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporatic artillery across the sector.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Reports of continued progress towards Svatove and Kreminna, but not spectacular as in previous weeks.
Donetsk Oblast ——
The Russians are creating a defense line in the Luhasnk Oblast reminiscent of the Second World War. The defensive line consists of two rows of “dragon’s teeth”, followed by a trench probably meant to stop vehicles, then firing positions for infantry and vehicles. The location is 20km south of Lysychansk, and about that far from what is currently thought to be the front lines to the west.
Crimean front ———
Continued Ukranian push in Kherson, but no spectacular gains.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
Russian air defense shot down a drone at Salovo village of Kaluga region yesterday evening, another lost from radars.
Damage to residential buildings in Belgorod after missile launches, no word on type of rockets being launched - ADA or surface to surface.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
I don’t expect much change in action, although weather in drying out in the 10 day forecast may permit more aggressive moves by Ukraine.
With the exception of around Bakhmut, Russia is being forced into a hard defensive mode. This is evident in the extensive efforts by Russia to establish essentially a Siegfried line defense west of Lysychansk. The russians on this one are too smarter themselves.
First, Ukraine has shown its tactical prowess of not attacking objectives via frontal attacks. Frontal attacks have been the method of choice by Russians. Instead, Ukraine finds and punches through a weak point, then rampages through the Russian rear area, encircling objectives and cutting them off. The most recent example was the liberation of Lyman.
Second, in light of point one above, these Russian anti-armor/tank defenses are assuming the same - frontal attack - in an effort to protect Lysychansk. All they need to do is look north to Svatove and Kreminna and see that Lysychansk’s threat is from the north, not the west. Ukraine is poised for another rear area rampage when these cities are captured.
Finally, such fixed defenses can be overcome by modern tactics. It assumes that Russia can devote the resources to maintain a sufficient force to overwatch the barriers. Unwatched barrier are no barriersI was taught when I was in the Army.
Finally, a lot of Belarus equipment shuffling but that’s about all. No imminent invasion. No precursors of any Russian nuke strike.
Belarus -
Reports of army convoys in Belarus, but nothing indicating that an incursion from the north is imminent.
European Union officials have submitted a mandate to the European Parliament to refuse Russian travel documents from Russian-occupied territories. EU officials say this ruling would “safeguard the security” of EU members by preventing the use of these documents in obtaining visas or entering Schengen area countries. The order would invalidate only Russian travel documents issued in areas of Ukraine and Georgia under Russian control and their residents.
Israel -
Rioting Palestinians clashed with Israeli police in several locations across East Jerusalem Wednesday night and early Thursday, as forces continued to hunt for a Palestinian suspected of a deadly shooting attack on a checkpoint days earlier.
OBSERVATION - The level of unrest in East Jerusalem and the refugee camp regions continues to be at a high level. Some appears to be representative still of a power struggle between extremists supported by Hamas and more moderate moslems supporters of Abbas as the West Bank is still facing changes in leadership. Israel is the target of choice since shooting fellow moslems by Hamas supporters is not seen as the most advantageous tactic at this time. It does show willingness to stand up to Israel in an effort too woo more radical supporters away from Abbas.
Iran -
Riots continued without abatement. EU is looking to impose sanctions on Iran for repressing its citizens.
The United States on Wednesday said that reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal is “not our focus right now,” saying that Tehran has shown little interest in reviving the pact and that Washington was concentrating on how to support Iranian protesters instead. U.S .State Department spokesman Ned Price said “It is very clear and the Iranians have made very clear that this is not a deal that they have been prepared to make. The deal certainly does not appear imminent,”
OBSERVATION - Absent strict enforcement of sanctions and choking Iranian economy and military Iran doesn’t give a rats rear end about a new deal. They are getting away with everything they want right now.
Iraq -
More violence between opposing factions as fighting appears to be expanding to other parts of the country.
Venezuela -
See Illegal immigration above.
Black Swans -
The effects of La Nina are being clearly felt here in the Redoubt. We are experiencing unusually mild temperatures for October, and the forecast is for the same to continue through at least the end of the month. This is combined with below average moisture. If this trend continues, agriculture is going to be hit worse next year than this, as it will not have had any time to recover.