Racing into the weekend. Take the time to check your preps.
I’ve started to go back over my posts from the start of the year to evaluate the effectiveness of my sources as well as to track critical events as they relate to the security of the US and my family. In initial impressions, things were pretty calm, relatively, then exploded. I invite others to take the time to look at them. I’ve tried to keep them daisy chained for easy back reference.
Globalism / Great Reset -
Under the heading of global warming- on of the big GGR talking points, the White House is is reportedly coordinating a five-year research plan to study ways of modifying the amount of sunlight that reaches the earth to temper the effects of global warming, a process sometimes called solar geoengineering or sunlight reflection.
Some of the techniques, such as spraying sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, are known to have harmful effects on the environment and human health. But scientists and climate leaders who are concerned humanity will overshoot its emissions targets say research is important to figure out how to balance these risks against a possibly catastrophic rise in the earth’s temperature.
OBSERVATION - Someone ought to remind these knuckleheads that cutting off sunlight will cause plant life to suffer - and with that even more food shortages. But then again, the GGR crowd wants to down size the population anyway.
BBC News Climate and Science -
Information campaigns like those used in the Covid-19 pandemic would help individuals act on climate change, a House of Lords report has said.
To meet climate goals, a third of cuts to UK emissions by 2035 must come from people changing their behaviour, it says.
It calls the government’s current approach “seriously inadequate”.
In response the government said it is fully committed to its legally binding net zero climate goals.
…
“People will have different lifestyles and make different choices about what changes they need to make, but we’re quite clear that people need to be helped to take this forward,” Baroness Kate Parminter, chair of the House of Lords Environment and Climate Change Committee, which wrote the report, told BBC News.
The Covid-19 pandemic provided important lessons in how to communicate clearly, using science, to the public, she said.
“Covid was a crisis, the climate is a crisis. We can learn some very important messages around the communications and the scale of the problem,” she adds.
…
Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63209451
OBSERVATION - The dream of the GGR since the wuhan lockdowns/emergency has been to force a similar ‘emergency ‘ on the world in regards to global warming / climate change. They are not willingly getting their way with individuals - so the only way they can move forward is with govt force. Britain as well as New Zealand, Canada and Australia have strong GGR ‘green’ supporters in leadership, and are the beta test for what the GGR wants to impose on the rest of the world.
Photovoltaic (PV) solar technology producers across Europe are now at serious risk of going under because of soaring energy prices, which is soon to be followed by energy shortages. This is due in part to the high cost of energy necessary to produce the panels to begin with.
Wuhan virus -
Biden administration said Thursday that the COVID-19 public health emergency will continue through Jan. 11 as officials brace for a spike in cases this winter. The decision comes as the pandemic has faded from the forefront of many people’s minds. Daily deaths and infections are dropping and people — many of them maskless — are returning to schools, work and grocery stores as normal.
This follows his declaration during an interview that the pandemic was “over”.
OBSERVATION - its all about power folks.
MIT scientist Dr. Stephanie Seneff has produced a pre-print article titled “SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein in the Pathogenesis of Prion-like Diseases” and explains the deadly mechanisms by which mRNA-induced spike protein wreaks havoc in the human body, and in the brain in particular. Remarkably, some of the blood cells can continuously produce spike protein for months after vaccination, possibly through reverse transcription of the mRNA into DNA, which amplifies the damage.
There is evidence showing that the most toxic part of SARS-CoV-2, the spike protein, is acting like a prion, or a misfolded protein that has the ability to transmit its misfolded shape onto normal variants of the same protein. Proliferation of prions in the brain is associated with neurodegenerative diseases such as Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s, Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).
The doctor urged the parents not to vaccinate their children with mRNA shots because of the wide spectrum of harm that they inflict.
OBSERVATION - The linkage to brain related disorders were noticed very early on - now hard data is being developed to back up those observations. Another brick in the foundation for establishing fraud by Phizer and Moderna.
Economy -
Shock waves continue to reverberate throughout the financial community following yesterday’s higher than expected inflation numbers. Initial consensus is that the Fed’s interest rates hikes are not working and that other economic factors are continuing unabated to keep pushing prices higher.
Due to low water on the Mississippi restricting barge traffic, farmers have no choice but to store beans and other farm goods outside in massive piles. This exposes the crops to losses due to rodents/insects and rot, decreasing an already poor harvest and are bound to result in higher food prices.
MORE - American wheat exports are set to hit a 50-year low. The USDA blames high prices, driven by high input costs, drought, and low water levels for transportation on the Mississippi for falling exports. Even though exports are hitting the lowest levels since 1971, U.S. grain stocks will be their lowest since 2007.
OBSERVATION - We are facing another La Nina climate year (i’ve noted this on several occasions now). Previously, there has been time for agriculture to recover, but this will be going on the third year in a row. Note the critical point being grain stocks at their lowest since 2007. Our reserves in wheat, as well as other grains, are at very low levels. If there is a disaster of some kind, we could be facing famine conditions here in the US. Something inconceivable by those of this generation (including myself). Famine can be a strong catalyst for social upheaval and govt change.
Housing market woes continue with Mortgage rates hitting their highest point in 20 years this week, coming within a hair of 7% and further crushing many homebuyers’ dreams.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped to 6.92% from 6.66% last week, according to Freddie Mac. Rates have increased more than a full point since the start of September and are now more than double where they were at the beginning of the year.
Homebuyer demand remains at a 22-year low, the Mortgage Bankers Association survey for the week ending October 7 found. The volume of mortgage applications for purchases decreased 2% from a week earlier, and are down 39% from a year ago.
At the same time, pending home sales in August – an indicator of housing health – also dropped 2%, marking the third straight month of declines. Contract signings were down 24.2% year over year.
Invasion of Illegals -
Treasury Department’s Office of the Inspector General confirmed it has opened an investigation into migrant flights to Massachusetts ordered by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. DeSantis is accused of using the interest gained from COVID relief funds to pay for the flights.
OBSERVATION - DeSantis knows the game they are bring to play and I’m pretty sure he’ll eat their lunch and pop the lunch bag in their face.
Biden / Harris watch -
On Thursday in Los Angeles, Biden said the cost of living “is a key reason why I ran for president.”
REALITY CHECK - In April 2019, year-to-year inflation was running at a low 2.0 percent. When Biden took office in January 2021, it was running at an even lower 1.4 percent. Under his leadership, year-over-year inflation is now at 8.2 percent. This past June, under Biden’s watch, inflation reached 9.1 percent, the highest rate since 1981.
CW2/Domestic violence -
A Virginia Democrat lawmaker says she will introduce legislation to have parents criminally prosecuted if they do not “affirm” their child as transgender. Teachers and social workers would report parents to Child Protective Services under the bill envisioned by state Delegate Elizabeth Guzman (D-Fauquier).
Guzman told WJLA that “It could be a felony, it could be a misdemeanor, but we know that CPS charge could harm your employment, could harm their education, because nowadays many people do a CPS database search before offering employment.”
IN RELATED - State Attorney Generals have written a letter to AG Garland warning him to avoid investigations of persons and organizations that oppose transitioning of children to a different ‘gender’. The letter came after the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), American Medical Association (AMA), and the Children’s Hospital Association (CHA) asked Biden’s attorney general to take “swift action to investigate and prosecute” people responsible for making threats against hospitals and doctors that are targeted for “providing evidence-based gender-affirming care.”
OBSERVATION - Another multi category item. The progression from doxxing and shame to out right tyrannical use of law to compel parents on this subject is mind boggling. The transgender movement has clearly operated in the background for many years -in stealth mode - to set up its people/supporters in many key positions in teachers unions, school boards and legislature. The last few years the ‘go’ order must have been given and these perverts have initiated their demonic plans for children and their parents. Now I usually don’t go biblical, but it is hard to conceive of the push to transgenderize / groom our children exploding on the scene in any other way.
Biden issued an executive order (EO) that allows the government to spy on Americans for broadly defined reasons including understanding “public health risks,” “political instability,” and the “threat” of climate change.
The October 7 EO is ostensibly written to “enhanc[e] safeguards” for “United States Signals Intelligence Activities,” which is intelligence gathering by the interception of signals, including communications, such as through cell phones, or those not used in communication.
The executive order provides a kind of legal ‘backdoor’ to surveillance of Americans under extremely broad pretexts.
OBSERVATION - This EO and discussions have been there for a few days and I’ve been trying to wrap my head around it. Back in the Before Times, when I served as signals intelligence officer for the Army, one of the big rules set by NSA was no collection of US citizens. Today that has largely been bypassed by the progressive forces since 0bama (and going further back to post 9/11). Metadata is one work around. Another is the govt using agencies like the Post Office to do their collection. This is another incremental move to expand surveillance on US citizens and their first amendment rights.
POLITICAL FRONT -
January 6 Committee voted to issue a subpoena compelling former President Trump to appear before that body.
OBSERVATION - Break out the popcorn for this one. Though it is unlikely that any appearance will happen before the midterms.
The bank account of the National Committee for Religious Freedom (NCRF), which is a nonpartisan, multi-faith nonprofit founded by former U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom Sam Brownback, was recently closed without explanation, Brownback told FOX Business.
“We went into a Chase branch in the District of Columbia to open an account, no problem,” Brownback said. “Then, several weeks later, I went to put another deposit in the account, and they said, ‘Your account has been canceled, we’ll be sending your money back to you.’”
In his op-ed, Brownback alleged that a Chase employee reached out to the nonprofit and said Chase would reconsider doing business with the nonprofit if it would provide a donor list, a list of political candidates it intended to support and a full explanation of the criteria by which it would endorse them.
OBSERVATION - I could have posted this under several headings - GGR/Cw2 etc because of the overall nature of this offense and its goals. This is a progression of the banks censoring businesses and groups based solely on political views. They are getting away with this so far based on the ‘private institution’ claim. But it is clearly a conspiracy among major banks to silence conservative groups. From a GGR viewpoint, this is just the kind of system they want for us peoples - the ESG credit system they can use to control and punish the masses as necessary.
China -
Chinese authorities were forced to remove political protest banners from overpasses in China’s capital of Beijing Thursday, only days ahead of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress scheduled to begin on the 16th of this month. The banners called for President Xi Jinping’s ouster and an end to strict zero-COVID policies. Photos of the banners were widely circulated on Chinese social media and the blocked western social media app Twitter. The overt protests are rare for Beijing, especially so close to the coming CCP Congress. (FO)
North/South Korea -
N. Korea fires some 170 artillery shots into ‘buffer zone,’ violates 2018 inter-Korean accord: S. Korean military. South Korea sent a notice to North Korea through a military hotline that the DPRK’s artillery drills overnight were “a breach” of the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement, according to Seoul’s defense ministry.
South Korea detected 10 North Korean military aircraft flying South of the special reconnaissance line - in response, South Korea scrambled F-35As.
Japan warns that North Korea has completed preparations for a nuclear test.
North Korea accuses South Korea of carrying out “provocative actions” near the border.
OBSERVATION - NK has decided to play a dangerous game of chicken. The artillery and aircraft actions doubly so. Kim also knows that this jerks the chain of the SK president who’s campaign was based in part on a strong reaction to NK’s missile and nuke build up. It also doesn’t hurt Kim’s prestige by rubbing the US’ nose in its weak responses.
Japan’s warning of an impending nuclear test is very valid. NK has embarked on a six-month program (so far) of provocative missile tests and caustic rhetoric. With the collapse of the solid system of sanctions by the US, nuclear testing can provide a big cash inflow - in this case, from Iran, who can test their weapons under the cover of NK - deflecting from Israel’s close surveillance.
The underground test site is ready. Recent missile tests were claimed to be nuclear-capable missiles. Likely scenario is to now test an actual warhead - different from just a bomb. In a worse case scenario, I wouldn’t put it out of NK’s to then actually conduct an open air test, mounting the weapon on a missile and detonating in the air over the Pacific
Japan -
See warning above in North/South Korea
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces are in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. Infighting between putin supporters, talking heads/milbloggers, mercenary leadership and Kremlin generals will only serve to create more problems in pursuing the fight. New conscripts are showing up at the front with absolutely no training or preparation .
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Russian officials announced they would not renew the Black Sea grain deal unless a list of concerns submitted to the United Nations is fully addressed. The announcement follows Russian complaints that it was having difficulties selling its fertilizer and food exports guaranteed as part of the deal. This is in part driven by the ‘terrorist attack’ on the Kerch Bridge.
Kerch Bridge update -
Huge backlog of trucks waiting to cross the Kerch via ferry are seen in satellite imagery taken yesterday by
Maxar.
Moscow has reportedly ordered the Crimea bridge repairs to be completed by July 2023. If this is true, then Russian logistic flow has been seriously crippled.
One lane of the bridge is open to light vehicle traffic, and there are no confirmed transits by train yet.
.
Moscow has announced it will evacuate Kherson after an appeal from the Russian-installed head of the region, raising fears the occupied city at the heart of the south Ukrainian oblast will become a new frontline.
Marat Khusnullin, a Russian deputy prime minister, told state television on Thursday that residents would be helped to move away from the region in south Ukraine, which remains only partly occupied by invading troops due to a successful Ukrainian counterattack in recent months.
“The government took the decision to organise assistance for the departure of residents of the [Kherson] region to other regions of the country,” Khusnullin said.
RUMINT -
Some Russian units, particularly in Donetsk region, are being ordered by senior command to temporarily cease offensive operations. The reason is the low morale of soldiers, many cases of desertion among the recently-mobilized, and widespread refusal to follow combat orders.
ALSO - There are some reports of a mutiny amongst some Russian forces, with a unit in the Kherson region conducting insubordination and handing themselves and equipment over to Ukrainian forces. Morale continues to be a significant problem amongst many Russian units.
Logistics -
- Looks like Russian/LDNR forces are now using 152mm D-1 M1943 howitzers, which were first produced during World War II.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- The Russian mobilization program is continuing to be a dumpster fire for putin, as conscripts are being sent to the front lines with little or no training or preparation. In many cases it is being rumored (see above) that they are surrendering or walking away as quickly as they can. The mess is gaining nasty reviews by nationalist milbloggers and other media talking heads.
- There are rumors that a second mobilization is about to be announced, even while Russian authorities sweep hotels, woods/forests and other hiding places for those trying to avoid the first mobilization.
Economic Impact -
- Mobilization is starting to hit small and medium businesses as eligible men disappear either via conscription or trying to flee conscription.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 50s and 60s with little to no rain 10 day forecast period.
RUMINT -
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukrainian forces reportedly have continued to make progress in the east and south. Russia has made some minor gains south of Bakhmut and have launched some spoiling attacks along the Kherson front.
Russian air/missile strikes continued yesterday and overnight with Zaporizhzhia impacted hard this morning. The strikes at this stage are not as significant as earlier in the week
Russian shelling was intensive around Bakhmut and north of Donetsk yesterday and artillery exchanges were very heavy yesterday around Kreminna and northwest of Kherson.
Kyiv front ——
NSR.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporatic artillery across the sector.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Reports of continued progress towards Svatove and Kreminna, but not spectacular as in previous weeks.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russians continue to try to fortify a WW1/WW2 style defensive line. Intense artillery and ground attacks by Russian forces lead by Wagner Group mercenaries in the Bakhmut area.
Crimean front ———
Continued minor gains by Ukraine towards Kherson, while Russia is attempting to disrupt efforts through sailing attacks.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
Another ammunition depot exploded in the Belgorod region last night with reports of significant damage.
Ukrainian forces also shelled a section of railroad in the Novooskolsky region of Belgorod oblast. Rail travel in the area is suspended until further notice.
Big fire near sugar plant in Oktyabrskiy town of Belgorod region, detonations audible. Governor of Belgorod region confirmed ammunition depot exploded
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory. Likely involved in the ammo dump attacks listed above.
OUTLOOK ——
I don’t see anything breaking loose in the short term. Ukraine seems to be settling down into a methodical advance on both fronts while more capable Russian units press their attacks in the Bakhmut area.
There has been a lot of reports - many originating from Russian milbloggers in the fighting zone, that the conscripts arriving to the front lines are causing more chaos than they are contributing to the war effort. Unmotivated and in many cases fleeing the lines, creating already tenuous command and control issues. Instead of improving morale of existing forces, it is dropping it further into the dumps. They reportedly have little to no will to fight.
How Ukraine exploits this is yet to be seen. Russian morale has been a subject of OSINT and other analysts discussions since the start of the war. It has manifested itself on many occasions through large, uncontrolled retreats, the most recent in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. The most dangerous conscripts appear to be those recruited from prisons by Wagner Group, who have a purpose to fight -obtaining their eventual freedom, and who are also hardened to the hardships of fighting from surviving the Russian prison system.
Belarus -
The “counter terrorist operation mode” was introduced in Belarus after reports of planned provocations by a number of neighboring states, the Foreign Minister said.
Lukashenka confirmed counter-terrorism operation regime in Belarus, says deployment of Belarusian-Russian joint forces in Belarus is a part of this
RUMINT - The decision on mobilization in Belarus has been made. It will pass under the guise of a military fitness test.” The report says at the first stage, it will not affect large Belarusian cities, the rural population will be mobilized first.
Belarusian officials announced they have no intention to join the conflict in Ukraine unless their borders are violated. State Secretary of the Belarusian Security Council, Alexander Volfovich, said “Belarus is not going to fight,” and called claims to the contrary “fake news” driven by western attempts to pit Slavic people against each other. Citing “increasingly malevolent intentions” of the Poles, Lithuanians, and Ukrainians, the secretary added that Belarusian military and security forces remained ready to “strike back” at any violations of its borders.(FO)
OBSERVATION - threat of revolt by the Belarus military leadership if forces to invade Ukraine is still very strong. I would think that any offensive action against Poland or the Baltic countries will generate the same.
Iran -
Narrative in Iran swinging from that of ‘protests’ to revolution. After over 4 weeks, the regime has been unable to quell the riots while support has grown.
Khamenei in an address yesterday still claims that the riots are the result of outsider influence.
OBSERVATION - The watch is on to see if this actually transitions into a full revolution. If the protestors can gain the sympathy of the general military , IRGC and Hezbollah enforcers may find their task to quell the protests even more difficult - considering that they’ve been ineffectual so far.
Iraq -
The Green zone was targeted by three rockets yesterday. However, The Iraqi parliament session to elect the president was not postponed.
Iraqi parliament voted in Abdul Latif Rashid as President.
Shia politician Mohammed Shia al-Sudani was quickly named prime minister-designate, assuming the task of reconciling feuding Shia factions and forming a government after a year of deadlock. Al-Sudani replaces caretaker Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi.
In Iraq’s power-sharing system, the presidency is reserved for Kurdish groups to nominate while the premiership falls under Shia blocs. The speaker of parliament is a Sunni.
In July, when al-Sudani was first proposed for the role, protesters backed by al-Sadr also stormed parliament.
Both Rashid and al-Sudani are seen as close to al-Maliki, a longtime foe of al-Sadr.
OBSERVATION - Still in intel collection mode on Rashid, may take a while due to everything else going on in the world. He was previously the Minister of Water Resources under the government of Nouri al-Maliki. Prior to that, he served in the same position under both the Iraqi Transitional Government and the Iraqi Interim Government. Rashid was formerly a spokesperson for the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in the United Kingdom. He is a graduate of the University of Manchester. Rashid is a Kurd, born in 1944 in Sulaymaniyah, and is an active member of the PUK under the leadership of Mr Jalal Talabani.
OVERALL - His selection is unlikely to calm internal strife - particularly with Al-Sadr and may signal a continued favor to the Iranian - supported factions and militias.
Lebanon -
The Lebanese President announces Lebanon’s approval of the final version of the maritime border demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Israel.
Lebanese banks closed their doors beginning last Thursday due to the extreme number of robberies by customers demanding to take their own money out of the institutions. This is just further evidence of the freefall of country’s economy.
Yesterday, the Lebanese parliament postponed their election of a new president until October 20 after failing to secure a quorum at the session.
OBSERVATION - Lebanon continues to be a basket case and even though they gained key concessions from Israel on maritime boundaries, it will be years before they can see any profits. And any profits will likely be grafted to Hezbollah - linked activities, with very little benefit to the general citizenry.
Mexico -
Lawmakers in Mexico’s legislative Chamber of Deputies approved a motion to extend the deployment of Military forces in a public security role until 2028. The move follows a previous change in policy by Mexican President Lopez Obrador, who announced he would extend military deployment to quell organized crime.
OBSERVATION- Cartels essentially run most of Mexico now and are now fighting turf wars to expand their control Been monitoring feeds on the cartel/cartel fighting as well as govt interdiction. It’s getting brutal down there. This raises a serious specter for the border states as they start to build a power base in the US for their drug and human trafficking empires.
You know DeSantis Godzilla... Update: DeSantis has the bridge to Pine Island repaired and working - and the one to Sanibel Island too. "The press" had predicted 'months'... Grocery stores in the area are open, running on generators and staffed with people from around the state... "We can fix it" is an unofficial Florida motto.
Hope ya’ll have a good weekend.
Wuhan virus -
New research conducted by Moderna in partnership with the Kaiser Permanente health care group reveals that the company’s messenger RNA-based (mRNA) Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) “vaccines” cause the immune system to turn against itself in just a few months.
Also known as negative efficacy, the phenomenon involves progressive immune degradation in a manner similar to AIDS and other autoimmune diseases. In essence, the “fully vaccinated” become walking immune time bombs that Moderna claims require additional injection intervention.The primary double-dose and booster regimen produces negative efficacy against the “currently dominant BA.5” subvariant after just a few months, the company claims. The same is true for BA.2, BA.4, and BA.1.12.1, though at varying intervals.
“Negative effectiveness means that a vaccinated person is more likely to contract COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, than an unvaccinated person,” one report explains.
OBSERVATION - Reports of vaccine-induced AIDS (VAIDS) have been out there for over a year now. This is one of the first studies to confirm and document its linkage to the jab (Pfizer and Moderna). As I ‘ve noted before on numerous occasions, connecting the dots to all these known (by Pfizer/Modenra, CDC, etc) can prove fraud and strip the lawsuit liability protection from them. The sooner this happens, the better.
Economy -
CEO confidence is at its lowest point since the Great Recession, according to a quarterly poll of business leaders conducted by the Conference Board. According to the survey, released Thursday, an overwhelming majority of 98% of U.S.-based CEOs say they are planning for an economic recession over the next 12-18 months. For CEOs based in Europe, that figure increased to 99%.
“CEOs are now preparing for near-inevitable recessions in both the U.S. and Europe,” Roger W. Ferguson Jr., a Conference Board trustee and former Fed vice chair, told the New York Post. “While the vast majority still expect the U.S. recession to be short and shallow, nearly 7 in 10 believe the EU will enter a deep recession with serious global spillovers.”
OBSERVATION - These CEOs jobs depend on their correct understanding of the current economic undercurrents that are welling up to impact their companies. While there is some hopium being expressed for a short/shallow US recession- their views about Europe are dour. Remember, the global economy is tightly bound together, so it will be hard not to have a similar, deep recession. Part of the hopium is to keep investors calm for as long as they can.
U.S. refineries are preparing themselves for the possibility that Biden could impose a ban on fuel exports after the White House dangled the threat of the ban in front of refiners. No action has been taken to date, but with the mid-terms coming up and fuel prices continuing to rise, this could soon change.
Earlier this month, the White House requested that the DOE assess the potential impact of banning fuel exports – including gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum products. The move suggested that President Biden may be preparing for a ban. This comes ahead of the mid-term elections, at a time when Biden is concerned about fuel prices rising even higher, and as the U.S. public battles with growing inflation levels and general economic uncertainty.
One oil executive explained the situation: “We don’t have a place to put excess fuel in the U.S,” adding, “We would have to slow refinery runs to make less diesel and gasoline.”
OBSERVATION - I find that last statement a little incredible. Also according to oil industry types, diesel and heating oil stocks are at record low levels in many parts of the country. To say there is no place to put the fuel is a bit disingenuous. The big concern IMHO is that being cut out from the global market - where they can get paid higher prices than in the US is driving this ‘concern’.
An export ban would throw the US industry into degree of chaos, on the flip side. The increase in the availability of gas/diesel would bring prices down, but refineries would still be facing inflated costs for refining and distributing, on top of high crude prices. This could result in a backlash of refinery closures or reduced production in order to maintain a profit margin. Throw in the traditional drop in oil demand that occurs during a recession and the oil industry will be forced to make many other changes that could damage the system in the future.
Invasion of Illegals -
Increasing reports that illegals are in increasing numbers crossing the border armed.
Biden / Harris watch -
Antifa et al protesting biden’s appearance s in Portland today. Much of his schedule is under wraps as a result.
CW2/Domestic violence -
Antifa going after biden in Portland
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
B-52s have deployed to Europe in support of NATO nuclear exercises.
China -
The US government’s new export controls are reportedly wreaking havoc on China’s chip industry. According to industry news reports/social media, every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralyzing Chinese manufacturing overnight. ASML has stopped providing services and support to mainland China.
OBSERVATION - This is just hitting my intel feeds, so the above is pretty raw. If the reports bear out, this would be a nasty hit on China’s chip industry. Especially since the CCP congress is just starting to meet.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces are in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. Infighting between putin supporters, talking heads/milbloggers, mercenary leadership and Kremlin generals will only serve to create more problems in pursuing the fight. New conscripts are showing up at the front with absolutely no training or preparation .
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Domestically, the ‘mobilization’ has created a lot of friction. Much of it coming from eastern states where the impression is that they are unfairly bearing the brunt of the call up.
NUKE WATCH -
Russian nuke exercises are coinciding with Nato exercises
Kerch Bridge update -
Russian begrudging admitting that the damage to the Kerch Bridge is more substantial than originally stated. July 2023 is the date for full repairs to be completed.
RUMINT -
Reports that the Russian MoD as asked Roskomnadzor to start prosecution against (Girkin) Strelkov, Pegov (WarGonzo), Podolyaka, Vladlen Tatarsky, Mardan, Dimitriev, and the creator of Rybar channel.
NOTE - These are prominent pro-Russia milbloggers who have of late been very critical of the war effort.
Logistics -
- It is being noted that Russian is deploying ancient soviet S-60 anti-aircraft guns to the war zone.
- Russia is relying more and more on Iranian drones for its attacks on Ukrainian cities, suggesting its own stockpile of guided weapons has reached a low point.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Reports that Russia is winding down its first mobilization in order for bureaucrats to process the regular conscript cycle.
- Not fully confirmed, but given the actions of the Russian military and the condition of the army, there are estimates that the wounded fatality rate is 50 percent. Alledgedly this is due to Russian military command refusing to evacuate the seriously wounded to the Russian Federation for treatment.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 50s and 60s with little to no rain 10 day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
BREAKING news that it appears Ukraine is resuming its offensive north of Kherson. Initial reports of a good deal of success.
Russian forces launched attacks all along the eastern front, focused on Bakhmut ,but with not reported success.
Kyiv front ——
Missile attacks across region, type not stated.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporadic artillery across the sector.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Reports of continued progress towards Svatove and Kreminna, but not spectacular as in previous weeks.
Russian artillery sporadically targeting other portions of the oblast.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck four Russian command posts and 15 other areas where Russian manpower and military equipment were concentrated, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said.
Reports of intensive fighting around Bakhmut with Russian forces gaining only a slight amount of ground south of the city.
Crimean front ———
Russian sources are reporting renewed Ukrainian attacks along the west side of the Dnipir River that appear to be focused on liberating the town of Mylove. Russians report Ukrainian forces have started to shell the entire frontline between Dnipro and Inhulets River.
Action has caused russian telegraph channels to bristle with concerns. Russian sources confirm that Ukrainian forces have launched at multiple sections of the Northern Kherson line their attack. Reports of large numbers of Russian soldiers surrendering as well.
More confirmation on the Ukranian offensive comes from Kirill Stremousov, a deputy head of the Russian occupation government in Kherson Oblast, said that the Ukrainian military is trying to launch an offensive near the village of Dudchany.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
Power is out in a number of places in Belgorod, Russia after Russia claims Ukraine attacked the city’s thermal power plant. Some Ukrainian sources are reporting that outbound missiles from Belgorod hit the power plant. NOTE It wouldn’t be the first time malfunctioning Russian missiles have hit Belgorod and vicinity.
An oil storage facility in Belgorod is reported to be on fire this afternoon.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Monitoring to see if the breaking news of a rejuvenated Kherson offensive by Ukraine is the real deal. The validity of russian telegraph channels reporting on the initial success of the attacks lends some credibility to the reports. russian telegraph channels have been relatively accurate of late providing intel on parts of the battle under Ukranian OPSEC silence.
The Belarus action has gotten a lot of attention. Since even before the war started, Belarus has been sword rattling with its military. The recent movement of recently mobilized Russians to regions of southern Belarus raise several key points -
FIRST - There are serious doubts that Belarus will actually send forces into Ukraine. The move is widely unpopular in Belarus, and even more so with the military.
SECOND - The Russians appear to be recently mobilized, absent significant training and equipment. I’ve observed before, there is an increasingly diminishing chance that these troops will be sent into war using Belarus equipment. Reason being is that Belarus is shipping armor and other vehicles to Russia and not areas the Russian conscripts are reportedly staging at.
THIRD - Movement of Russian forces into the border regions with Belarus forces may be an effort to provide them additional training. The goal this training may well be to throw them into combat towards Kyiv in an effort to divert Ukrainian assets away from the east and south.
FINALLY - Should Russia try to assault Kyiv again from the north, the results will likely be worse than when the war started. Relatively well trained and equipped Russian forces surprise attack was stopped by hastily organized Ukrainian resistance. The rag tag Russian conscripts being into Belarus are a far cry from such a force.
However, one shouldn’t write off another attack towards Kyiv given the desperate situation russia is finding itself in in the south and east. Currently, no intelligence indicators of an imminent attack are present. That may change with time.
Belarus -
Belarus is expecting approximately 70,000 additional Russian soldiers to be deployed to Belarus.
Belarusian military personnel have been banned from traveling abroad, unless it’s to Russia, sources tell Belarusian outlet Nasha Niva.
Belarusian watchdog Belarusian Hajun reported that, over the past week, Belarus has transported at least 67 T-72 tanks and 28 Ural military trucks from its Mahilou region to Russia.
“Prohibitions and restrictions” on visiting forests has been introduced in 12 southern regions of Belarus, state media report. This usually happens when there are army maneuvers etc
OBSERVATION - these forests are located in the border region due north of Kyiv. Needless to say intel eyes are on this activity. The current publicly released assessments state that there are no indicators of an attack into Ukraine from the north at this time.
IMHO - So far these Russian forces appear to be bodies only, with no accompanying armor/tanks. They also appear to be the untrained conscripts. I thought that initially they could fall in on Belarus equipment until the reports started coming out that it is apparently is being shipped to Russia.
Russia’s initial attacks towards Kyiv were relatively complex and had well armed and relatively trined units (VDV for example). To throw unmotivated and untrained conscripts into an attack on Kyiv again would be disastrous. See my comments under Ukraine OUTLOOK above.
NATO is set to start military drills practicing the use of Europe’s nuclear bombs on Monday after Putin warned direct clashes with Russia would spark ‘global catastrophe’. Its annual nuclear exercise ‘Steadfast Noon’ will see up to 60 aircrafts take part in training flights over Belgium, the North Sea and Britain. The nuclear drills - which do not involve live bombs - come after Vladimir Putin said today that a direct clash between NATO and Russian troops would lead to ‘global catastrophe’. NATO said the exercise, which runs until 30 October, was a routine, recurring training activity and added that no live weapons would be used.
Sweden has gathered evidence conclusively linking Russia to sabotage of the Nordstream pipeline. Citing national security concerns, Stockholm has rejected a joint investigation and data sharing with Russia.
Israel -
Palestinian factions signed a reconciliation deal in Algiers on Thursday, vowing to hold elections by next October in their latest attempt to end a rift that has now lasted more than 15 years. The deal was signed by a leading figure from the Fatah party of Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas and by the chief of the Hamas terror group, which rules Gaza. But Abbas himself, president of the Palestinian Authority since 2005, was not present.
Fatah and Hamas have been at odds since the elections in 2006, which were won by Hamas but never recognized by the international community. The following year, the Islamist movement seized control of the Gaza Strip beginning years of division, with Fatah administering Palestinian-run areas of the West Bank. The first elections since the division had been set to take place last year, but were canceled by Abbas.
Fatah and Hamas have signed several similar deals in the past but none has led to elections actually taking place.
OBSERVATION - I think the last sentence above says it all. Hamas and Fatah have been nasty opponents over the years. Fatah (and Israel) do not want to allow Hamas to gain a foot hold in the West Bank. Fatah has gotten soft in many ways, working with Israel to raise the standard of living in the West Bank, whereas Hamas has kept its anti-Israel sword sharp, gaining resonance with West Bank radicals.
Iran -
Iranian activists called for fresh nationwide protests on Saturday over the death of Mahsa Amini, as the movement entered its fifth week despite a crackdown that has killed dozens. At least 108 people have been killed in the Amini protests, and at least 93 more have died in separate clashes in Zahedan, capital of the southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan, according to Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights.
Reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) may be mobilizing retired service members and other affiliated officers to suppress protests in Tehran.
OBSERVATION - If this mobilization is accurate, it indicates that the budding revolution is getting out of hand for the regular forces.
Misc of Note -
US health officials are becoming increasingly concerned about this year’s flu season – and are already seeing signs that the virus is spreading. As the 2022-23 flu season gets underway, one high school in California is facing a “high number of absences” among students due to possible flu cases. Flu activity in the United States often starts to increase in October and usually peaks between December and February.
OBSERVATION - From completely disappearing during the wuhan plandemic to a new disaster in order to push more vaccinations.
Alaska will cancel the upcoming winter snow crab season in the Bering Sea for the first time, and bar fishers from catching king crabs in the Bristol Bay for a second consecutive year, because of a sharp decline in their estimated population.
This week’s announcements by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game deal a severe blow to fishers that make a living off the crabs. They also bring back to the forefront questions about the role of climate change in the rapid decline of the snow crab population: The number of juvenile snow crabs was at record highs just a few years ago, before some 90 percent of snow crabs mysteriously disappeared ahead of last season.
OBSERVATION - In perspective, 90% is approximately 1 billion missing crab. This may be linked to the La Nina cycle we are currently in (third consecutive year) and as the Alaska F &G suggest in their statement, the crabs may have migrated to colder water.