More of the same it appears.
Globalism / Great Reset -
New Zealand has proposed taxing the greenhouse gasses that farm animals produce from burping and urinating in a bid to tackle climate change.
The world-first scheme will see farmers paying for agricultural emissions in some form by 2025.
The country’s farming industry accounts for about half of its emissions.
But farmers have been quick to criticise the plan, with one lobby group saying it would “rip the guts out of small-town New Zealand”.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said money raised from the proposed levy will be pumped back into the industry to finance new technologies, research and incentive payments for farmers.
OBSERVATION - Starvation in the name of saving mankind …..
Economy -
The third largest railroad union rejected its deal with freight railroads Monday — renewing the possibility of a strike that could cripple the economy — but before that could happen both sides will return to the bargaining table.
About 56% of the track maintenance workers represented by the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division union who voted opposed the five-year contract even though it included 24% raises and $5,000 in bonuses.
OBSERVATION - All unions have to agree, else the deal is off and a strike could happen. A strike - in conjunction with very limited barge traffic and congestion at ports would have a very harsh effect on the economy. The failed vote means negotiations will continue under “status quo” conditions. According to the statement, union members won’t pursue a strike at least until 19 November. This would push it past the midterms, though by a whisker and could still weigh heavily on voter opinions.
Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said the central bank is holding fast in its commitment to bring down inflation even if it means people losing their jobs.
Speaking three weeks before the Fed is expected to approve its fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase, the central bank official told CNBC he hopes to minimize economic damage.
“Ultimately, inflation is the most important thing to get under control. That’s job-one,” Evans said during a live “Squawk on the Street” interview. “Price stability sets the stage for stronger growth in the future.”(nbc news)
OBSERVATION - It will result in more than just lost jobs, but their aggressive policy continues to threaten an even deeper recession judging by how big businesses are working to prepare.
In related, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned last week that even though the Federal Reserve risks triggering a “financially traumatic event,” they should keep tightening monetary conditions to combat inflation.
OBSERVATION - Fedspeak - “financially traumatic event,” what the heck does that mean? Some think he is implying a 2008 like crash that developed into a combination depression with inflation. More related - IMF (GGR underlings) begin meetings this week - controlling inflation is high on their agenda.
Target announced on Monday that they’re offering a pre-Black Friday sale, featuring half-price electronics and toys, while Walmart is also running a sale this week. Amazon announced they’d be running another Prime Day later this month for the same reasons, and have already opened up Prime Exclusives.
OBSERVATION - Excess stockage is costing companies a bundle and in the face of a train wreck that the recession will bring will hammer these companies. Ive been noting these sales for a number of months now, and as the Christmas season is here (local Walmart fully stocked with Christmas stuff), time to look for bargains on essentials is now.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
PayPal’s mea culpa was more an obfuscation designed to deflect criticism. PayPal’s current Acceptable Use Policy still threatens $2,500 fines per infraction for promoting “hate” and “intolerance” — language the Left regularly uses to characterize (and demonize) speech that is critical of its insane policies. PayPal stock took a big hit again yesterday.
Cyber Warfare -
Reports of a number of significant cyber attacks across the US including several major airports. Killnet the pro Russian hacking group has claimed most of these attacks. Disruptions at airports were or are reportedly minimal with any cyber security breach also reported as temporary and minimal.
OBSERVATION - Some aspects seemed timed to the missile strikes yesterday.
China -
Taiwan tracked 26 Chinese military aircraft, and 4 naval ships around country.
OBSERVATION - As stated before, China has shifted to a new phase in this harassment - one designed to lull Taiwan into a false sense of a new normalcy - an act that can cover up an actual invasion.
Communist Party congress that opened Sunday in Beijing and is poised to grant the Chinese president and party general secretary an unprecedented third five-year term in office despite a slowing economy and mounting domestic unrest over his zero-COVID health restrictions.
OBSERVATION - So far, none of China’s woes is set to derail Xi’s move to unprecedented power.
North/South Korea -
North Korea claims 150 combat aircraft were involved in a large-scale combined air-attack drill on 8 Oct. Su-25, MiG-29, MiG-23, MiG-21 & Mig-19.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces are in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. Infighting between putin supporters, talking heads/milbloggers, mercenary leadership and Kremlin generals will only serve to create more problems in pursuing the fight. New conscripts are showing up at the front with absolutely no training or preparation .
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Two of Russia’s biggest allies, China and India, are calling on President Vladimir Putin to “de-escalate” the eight-month long conflict. “All countries deserve respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity,” The New York Times reported Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s Foreign Ministry, telling reporters at a briefing Monday. “Support should be given to all efforts that are conducive to peacefully resolving the crisis.”
India’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Arindam Bagchi said in the Times report that New Delhi would offer support for efforts to calm the fighting. “India is deeply concerned at the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, including targeting of infrastructure and deaths of civilians,” the Times reported Bagchi saying.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 50s and some rain over the 10 day forecast period. Images on social media show soil conditions starting to revert to Ukrainian mud (Bezdorizhzhia). Bezdorizhzhia pretty much directly translates as “roadlessness”
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian army conducted numerous missile strikes overnight in a continuation of its missile blitz across the country, though smaller than yesterday’s. Ukrainian air defense reports that it shot down 46 cruse missiles and 27 drones, according to the General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine in its morning report. Numerous cities are facing over outages and other infrastructure issues from the missile strikes.
Ukraine continues to regain terrain while Russia continues to try to capture Bakhmut.
Kyiv front ——
More missiles overnight
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporatic artillery across the sector.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Luhansk Oblast east of the Oskil River in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Heavy fighting continued around Bakhmut with reports now that Russia has pushed Ukrainian forces back in the south from Zaitseve and Vesela Dolyna. Heavy fighting continues in this region.
Scattered artillery westward along the LOC to Zaporizhzhia
Crimean front ———
Scattered Russian artillery along the LOC. Ukranian forces continue to press southward towards Kherson.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
More missiles struck western sand central areas of Ukraine overnight. Russia attacked Ladyzhyn Power Plant with drones. Russian air/missile strikes concentrated mostly on the Zaporizhzhia region again, and another two power stations in the west and central regions.
Russian Territory -—
Governor of Belgorod region orders 2 weeks of remote schools for students.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
Explosions were reported in Dzhankoi, Crimea
OUTLOOK ——
Other than the terror angle, the missiles have done little to quench the morale of the Ukrainians or stem the support from western nations.
Expect Ukraine to continue its offensive operations in the east and south.
Item well worth monitoring is the combining of Russian soldiers and Belarus military forces on the western border of Belarus and Ukraine. See my discussion on potential options below.
Belarus -
Lukashenka ordered combat readiness check of Armed Forces of Belarus.
Reports of soldiers are entering Belarus by the trainload. They’re traveling in cattle cars - just a huge quantity. Just waves of trains arriving.
OBSERVATION - Some of this ‘joint’ readiness agreement may be becoming clear. It is likely that these ‘soldiers’ are recent conscripts that will be given a minimum of training on Belarus equipment, then use that equipment for an attack into western Ukraine towards Lviv and supply lines coming from Poland. Thus Lukashenka can keep his own forces out of the combat (and protect his rear end in Belarus) while supporting Russian war effort. Notice that it is troops ONLY, and no equipment. Belarus units who’s equipment they might take are from his better trained elements - likely with the better maintained armor/tanks.
This potential attack has been bandied about ever since significant supples started pouring in from the west and Russian missile strikes were unable to interdict and stop the flow. IMHO, if Russia launches this attack, it would be in the hopes of diverting enough resources and men away from Kherson and eastern offensives to force a pause, which would give them some time to reman, rearm and prepare defenses. The success of this objective according to some analysts is very shaky, very defensible Ukrainian terrain would not require a large force to face-off against an ill trained and poorly prepared Russian or or even Belarus force - estimated to be some where in the range of 6 BTGs and some air borne / special ops.
Belarus is judged to have the most poorly trained army in Europe. Throwing unmotivated and untrained Russians on to Belarus equipment for an invasion (one that Ukraine has already done battle field preparations for) can only turn out ugly for the Russians. Poland and the Baltic nations may well use a Belarus invasion for their own counter strike, thus the look at russians taking Belarus equipment to war instead.
Poland -
Poland is calling on its citizens to leave Belarus immediately.
Israel -
Israeli Prime Minister Lapid announced Israel accepts the U.S. proposal for a maritime border agreement with Lebanon. The Israeli security cabinet and the full government will convene tomorrow to approve it. PM Lapid stated “The maritime border demarcation agreement with Lebanon meets Israel’s economic and political demands”
Part of the agreement that has brought criticism from within Israel is Lapid’s initial agreement to territorial concessions to Lebanon in the gas fields off the country’s Mediterranean coast.
OBSERVATION - Lapid’s concessions could be seen as a sign of weakness — very fatal when dealing with moslems.
Iran -
Riots continue into their fourth week. Increasingly violent clashes between protestors and govt forces. Other sectors of the nation joining the protests. Oil industry workers have now joined the protests as well as the merchants. These two groups are refusing to work as well as joining protests. This has not happened since the 1979 uprising that overthrew the monarchy. It was the oil industry workers and merchants who made the difference then and that seems to be happening. The current protests are also including more anti-government factions.
OBSERVATION - The growing base supporting the protestors is becoming a grave concern for the imans. Violence by IRGC and affiliated elements is not stopping the protests, and is starting to appear to be galvanizing them.
The third of three cascades advanced IR-6 centrifuges recently installed at Natanz has now come onstream, a new IAEA report says, adding Iran had informed the agency it plans to add an extra three cascades of IR-2m centrifuges.
OBSERVATION - The clock keeps ticking and the hands get closer to midnight for Iran. With the installation of these newest centrifuges, the capability to refine weapons grade Uranium in a short time has improved.
Lebanon -
Reuters, citing Lebanese officials: Hezbollah has agreed to the maritime border demarcation agreement with Israel.
Lebanese Energy Minister Walid Fayyad says TotalEnergies will begin process of exploring for gas in Lebanese waters as soon as deal on maritime border with Israel is concluded. Comments come after meeting with senior Total delegation
Syria -
Russia escalating lately attacks against Greater Idlib. RuAF bombed this morning area of Zayniah in the W. Idlib province
Black Swans -
US-bound travelers who have been to Uganda within the previous 21 days will be redirected to five major American airports to screen for Ebola, after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Thursday issued an alert to healthcare workers to raise awareness about the current outbreak.
OBSERVATION - Ebola scare raised it’s head now. Don’t see this as a major threat as our environment is not very conducive to transmission here - too cold from what I hear.
Hump day . ..
Heads up - Thursday’s post may be a wash as I’ll be on the road again.
Globalism / Great Reset -
Citing unanticipatedly broad and persistent inflationary pressures, the International Monetary fund has cut its global growth projections for 2023, saying,” The worst is yet to come.” IMF chief economist Pierre-Oliver Gourinchas said 2023 would see a “broad-base” slowdown with the contractions of a third of the top economies, with the U.S., China, and euro-zone economies expected to “stall.” Goruinchas added that now was the time for people to “batten down the hatches” and prepare for difficulties as “2023 will feel like a recession.” (FO)
OBSERVATION - I think tis is an understatement, IMF is seeing something bad and is trying to spin it. It is exactly the kind economic turmoil the GGR is seeking to trigger it Great Reset.
Wuhan virus -
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will not release its review of post-COVID-19-vaccination heart inflammation. The CDC has been performing abstractions on reports of post-vaccination myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System.
But the agency is saying that federal law prevents it from releasing the results.
The abstractions “are considered medical records which are withheld in full from disclosure,” the CDC told The Epoch Times in a recent letter, responding to a Freedom of Information Act request.
OBSERVATION - this information is potentially damning to the CDC and eventually Phfzer/Modnera. The courts will likely rule against the CDC, eventually. Until then they will try to keep a tight lid on this. However, if you’ve been monitoring this plandemic, the link has been exposed for a while now. What this does is demonstrate govt complacency in that THEY recognized it and didn’t do anything until outside analysis forced them to.
Pfizer executive Janine Small admitted to the European Parliament with a laugh that the company did not test if its COVID-19 vaccine stopped transmission of the virus before the vaccine was put on the market. In a video released by Dutch Member of the European Parliament Rob Roos, he remarks, emphasized the importance of this admission. “This removes the entire legal basis for the COVID passport, the COVID passport that led to massive institutional discrimination as people lost access to essential parts of society,” Roos said. “I find this to be shocking, even criminal.”
OBSERVATION - Under the US emergency use authorization IIRC, Phizer is shielded from lawsuits unless there was fraud involved. More and more, statements like and other previously hidden reports are laying the foundation here for just such a claim of fraud. Tied tightly to the hip are fauci et al and the collusion to keep this information under wraps and willfully mislead the public.
Economy -
According to data from Freightwaves, over the summer, import volumes to the US began dropping off a cliff, indicating that consumer demand was indeed being affected by inflation/stagflation. Inbound containers have dropped over 36% since May 24. Now, trans-pacific shipping rates have also plunged at least 75%. The huge decline in volumes and shipping rates signal an important shift in the US economy and are a warning of changes to come. Reduction in shipping reflects the buildup of inventory seen in stores today.
OBSERVATION - Analysts viewing this decline as a reflection of companies backing off production / inventories in anticipation of a recession. WhatI see being hotly debated is the intensity/depth of the recession as well as other compounding factors
NOTE - EARNINGS REPORTS will be coming out and they should give an eye to the transjectory of the economy for the coming months.
Shortages in the Californian tomato crop due to the drought are coming forward. As a major producer, higher prices will once again reverberate through the food supply in the form of higher prices.
Biden / Harris watch -
In a CNN interview, biden was asked - Q: “Should the American people prepare for a recession?”
BIDEN: “No...I don’t think there will be a recession. If it is, it’ll be a very slight recession.”
OBSERVATION - Fundamentally, we are in a technical recession. But never forget, this is the administration that told us repeatedly that the inflation we are experiencing is only ‘transitory’.
CW2/Domestic violence -
Since 2020, the armament of the Antifa affiliated groups has evolved from shotguns/bolt action rifles, to AR-15 platforms and full kit. During this same period leftist gun groups like the The Socialist Rifle Association, John Brown Gun Clubs, Redneck Revolt, and others have grown and gotten more sophisticated, including training by former military. The days when we could laugh this element of, now we need to recognize this as a real threat, particularly in urban settings.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
PayPal’s mea culpa was more an obfuscation designed to deflect criticism. PayPal’s current Acceptable Use Policy still threatens $2,500 fines per infraction for promoting “hate” and “intolerance” — language the Left regularly uses to characterize (and demonize) speech that is critical of its insane policies. PayPal stock took a big hit again yesterday.
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
White House officials confirmed they’re reviewing a request from Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry to send U.S. or UN troops to help quell unrest.
China -
Xi’s third term as president looking to be in the bag, baggage from his current tenure continues to hit the country. The IMF has cut its growth forecasts for China Tuesday, saying China’s zero-COVID policies and nearly collapsed property market will significantly slow growth through the end of 2023.
OBSERVATION - The economic chickens will eventually come home to roost for Xi and China.
Japan -
Japan’s 10-year government bonds untraded for 3rd straight session, the first time ever, per Bloomberg. Concerns are Japan’s ability to repay.
OBSERVATION - From what I read, the fall of the yen is due to the aggressive rated increases by the Fed which have strengthened the dollar overseas. The smart guys say this is an indication to expect further devaluation of the Japanese yen. This is also not a problem isolated to Japan, but similar is affecting other countries - especially in Europe.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces are in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. Infighting between putin supporters, talking heads/milbloggers, mercenary leadership and Kremlin generals will only serve to create more problems in pursuing the fight. New conscripts are showing up at the front with absolutely no training or preparation .
NUKE WATCH -
Both UK and U.S intelligence continue to say there are no indications Russia is preparing to use any nuclear weapons.
Kerch Bridge update -
Four days since the attack and reports are that no trains have been observed on the Kerch Bridge. This would indicate no (military) supplies for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia since 4 days, at least not in large quantities.
Logistics -
- The Russian Federation is likely extracting ammunition and other materiel from Belarusian storage bases.
- There are reports Russia has ordered another 2,000 plus Iranian-made Shahed UAVs.
- There are unconfirmed reports and indications Russia’s resupply of Kalibr missiles is problematic and active quantities low, impacting used by Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 50s and some rain over the 10 day forecast period. Images on social media show soil conditions starting to revert to Ukrainian mud (Bezdorizhzhia). Bezdorizhzhia pretty much directly translates as “roadlessness”
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia’s missile assault is winding down with only 29 missiles launched overnight.
Ukraine continues to regain terrain, although at a slower pace while Russia continues to try to capture Bakhmut.
Kyiv front ——
More missiles overnight
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporatic artillery across the sector.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Luhansk Oblast east of the Oskil River in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna. Ukraine forces have gained artillery control of major roads between Svatove and Kreminna
Donetsk Oblast ——
Heavy fighting continues in this region with Ukrainian military repelling Russian attacks near Mykolaivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Mayorsk, Pervomaiske, and Krasnohorivka,
Scattered artillery westward along the LOC to Zaporizhzhia.
Russian forces are constructing significant defensive positions in the western Luhansk regions including large very wide trench barriers, concrete obstacles and minefields.
Crimean front ———
Scattered Russian artillery along the LOC. Ukranian forces continue to press southward towards Kherson with claims of liberating Novovasylivka, Novohryhorivka, Nova Kamianka, Tryfonivka and Chervone in Beryslav district of Kherson region.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
More missile/drone atttacks overnight.
Russian Territory -—
Air defense activity was noted over the Belgorod area.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
There are reports that partisan cells targeted a Russian administrative chief yesterday in an assassination style shooting near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant, with reports he was hospitalized in a critical condition.
OUTLOOK ——
While Ukraine will continue gaining in the east and south, I expect progress to slow as they work to get their logistics to keep up with the advance. Success in the east has really put pressure on Russian forces there already suffering from lack of logistics support. Same in the south.
Belarus remains in the news, but if the reports that Russia is draining them of their ammo and armor are correct, then the notion that Russian forces are setting conditions for a ground attack against Ukraine from Belarus becomes improbable. OSINT and government intel agencies don’t see an invasion from the north in the near term. One alternative is that Russia is using the joint operation to train the conscripts. When that training’s over - in about a month, then the risk of an attack from the north grows, with Russian forces taking Belarus equiptment while leaving Belrusian military behind to protect the regime.
Belarus -
Belarus says troops deployed alongside Russian forces is ‘purely defensive’
Four Russian fighter jets were intercepted and forced to return to base after they infringed on Polish air space, according to Italy’s air force.
Aeronautica Militare announced that the squadron took off from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, and flew an aggressive path which took them through Polish skies - though the post did not specify when the infringement occurred.
Italy quickly scrambled four Eurofighter Typhoon jets in response which took off from Poland’s Malbork air base and intercepted the Russian aircraft, ‘forcing’ them to return back to Kaliningrad.
OBSERVATION - Very dangerous action by the Russians, which could result in a shoot down. Provocations like this could start a war between Russia and NATO.
Iran -
Protests continue as does internet disruptions, believed to be a tool being used by the regime to limit coordination between protestors. Protests are the heaviest in Kurds portions of the country (the girl killed was kurdish) with the most violence by govt forces reported
Iraq -
Fighting between pro- and anti- Iranian militias reported around Basra.
Saudi Arabia -
Biden administration cancelled a meeting of the US-GCC Working Group on Iran, according to a letter obtained by news platform Semafor. The meeting that was reportedly cancelled was the US-GCC Working Group on Iran, which would have focused on integrated air and missile defense.
The cancelling of the meeting appears to be a major follow-through of the administration’s announcement earlier on Tuesday, when national security spokesman John Kirby said the US would be reviewing its relationship with Saudi Arabia, following a decision by Opec+ to cut the production of oil by two million barrels a day.
“I would expect that the multilateral, mid-level engagements you’re referring to will be rescheduled at some point,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said in response to a reporter’s question during a news briefing on Tuesday. “This is a good time to reevaluate” the relationship with Saudi Arabia, Kirby told reporters on Tuesday.
OBSERVATION - Biden said there would be ‘consequences’ to OPEC+ decreasing production and now it is shoeing itself via pulling out of integrated air and missile defense talks. These talks are critical in coordinating efforts to keep Iran corralled in if they obtain nuclear weapons as well as addressing regional threats by the Houthi.