Replies

Tight schedule this morning, so I won’t be commenting on most of the items today.

Wuhan virus -

University in Boston playing around with features of the two most notable COVID strains — the original one with the greatest lethality and the Omicron with the greatest transmissibility. Then they started infecting mice with it.
The mutant variant — which is a hybrid of Omicron and the original Wuhan virus — killed 80 percent of mice infected with it at Boston University. When a similar group of rodents were exposed to the standard Omicron strain, however, they all survived and only experienced ‘mild’ symptoms. The scientists also infected human cells with the hybrid variant and found it was five times more infectious than Omicron. This suggests the man-made virus might be the most contagious form yet. — DailyMail

OBSERVATION – Holy @$#% This is the absolutely LAST thing we need scientists playing around and doing. Shut this study down and nuke every vial containing this hybred.

Economy -

The baby formula shortage has dropped off the radar screen given the other chaos going on in our country today, however, a significant percentage of families with infants are still unable to find the variety of formula their babies require on any given week. According to the Wall Street Journal, roughly one-third of such families are either being forced to go with a brand not suggested for their baby’s needs or they simply aren’t finding any without jumping through a lot of hoops. Nearly one in five of affected households has less than a week of formula on hand, the survey showed.
So the situation is considerably better than it was six months ago, but we’re still quite a ways from getting back to “normal” levels of production and distribution.

OBSERVATION - The baby food shelves are still mostly bare, though not completely empty as earlier. The world’s superpower still cant feed its babies.

Biden is planning to release up to 15 million barrels of oil from the US’s emergency oil reserves as he tries to stem soaring gasoline prices.
The oil release would be the latest portion of a deal Biden struck last spring to release 180 million barrels of oil from energy companies.
His administration is planning to announce the latest reserve release later this week, according to Bloomberg.

OBSERVATION – biden has critically emptied most of our country’s reserve. This is a deliberate act to weaken the country should some disaster befall us. To make it doubly worse, in part he is taking national assets to try to sway the midterm campaign.

China –

Xi gave a nearly two-hour speech on Sunday at the start of the week-long CCP Congress. In his speech, he described the Chinese government’s work under his leadership and his plans for the future as he is expected to be re-elected to another five-year term as CCP party leader.

During his speech, Xi said, “We have set the party’s goal of building a strong military in the New era.”
“We have implemented the party’s thinking on strengthening the military for the new era: follow the military strategies for the new era and upheld absolute party leadership of the people’s Armed Forces,” he said. “We have coordinated efforts to strengthen military working all directions and domains and carried out bold reforms of National Defense. And the people’s Armed Forces now boast new systems, a new structure, a new configuration and a new look.”

Xi repeatedly highlighted one area of potential focus for the Chinese military, “resolving the Taiwan question.”

Beijing wants to seize Taiwan “on a much faster timeline” than previously considered, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday, warning that President Xi Jinping was leading China in a more aggressive direction.

OBSERVATION – Taking advantage of the obvious weakness of biden?

North/South Korea -

South Korea and the United States will kick off large-scale air drills involving U.S. F-35B stealth jets later this month, per Seoul officials. The drills are set to take place over South Korean airspace from Oct. 31-Nov. 4, with the South Korean Air Force set to mobilize some 140 warplanes, including F-35A, F-15 and KF-16 fighters.

The U.S. military plans to deploy around 100 aircraft, including F-35B stealth fighters from an American base in Japan, according to officials. “The planned training is aimed at verifying the systems of wartime combined air operations between the South Korean and U.S. air forces, and enhancing their combat readiness posture,” an official said.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces are in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. Infighting between putin supporters, talking heads/milbloggers, mercenary leadership and Kremlin generals will only serve to create more problems in pursuing the fight. New conscripts are showing up at the front with absolutely no training or preparation .

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NUKE WATCH - Russia said on Tuesday that four Ukrainian regions whose annexation it proclaimed last month are under the protection of its nuclear arsenal.
The statement from the Kremlin came at a moment of acute tension, with both NATO and Russia expected to hold military exercises shortly to test the readiness of their nuclear weapons forces.
Asked by reporters if the regions were under Moscow’s nuclear umbrella, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “All these territories are inalienable parts of the Russian Federation and they are all protected. Their security is provided for at the same level as [it is for] the rest of Russia’s territory.”

Russian Personnel Issues –
- Lt. Col. Roman Malyk, incharge of Russia’s key efforts to mobilise against Ukraine, was found dead under “suspicious” circumstances, a report said on Sunday. Malyk was said to be a close aide of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and was found dead at his residence in Russia’s Primorsky area village.
An investigation has been launched into his death and suicide has not been ruled out as a cause by Russian police, reports said.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian increasingly targeted Ukrainian electrical grid infrastructure overnight. Initial estimates of 30% having been taken out, mostly via Iranian drones. Russian ground attack activity in and around Bahkmut was noticeably decreased from yesterday.
Sporadic artillery all along the LOC.
Russian sources report that Ukraine is continuing its offensive in Kherson Oblast – with few details.

Kyiv front ——
Drone attacks continue in the region

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
More fighting in the east, pressing closer to key russian supply nodes

Donetsk Oblast ——
More attacks across the Bakhmut sector with little to no success. Intensity down from yesterday.

Crimean front ———
Russia reports continued Ukranian offensive in Kherson Oblast, but provides few details. Ukraine OPSEC keeps silent on its actions. Overall activity appears to have let up from yesterday.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Drone and other missile attacks on electrical system.

Russian Territory -—
Shelling reported along the border in Grayvoron district of Belgorod region

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Relatively low levels of action, likely associated with rainy weather making maneuver through the mud difficult. Rain will become an increasing factor on both sides as fall moves on and winter approaches.

Russia’s drone blitz is expected to continue, however, Ukraine is getting the hang on how to shoot these critters down. Russia is targeting more and more the power grid – in a clear threat to the civilian population with winter coming.

Watching Belarus – still no evidence of an impending invasion.
Watching to see if long range missiles from Iran arrive and are put to use. Could give an excuse to arm Ukraine with Atacams.

Belarus -

Belarus reserves its right to take preemptive strategic deterrence measures amid the establishment of offensive NATO groups near Belarusian borders, says Valery Revenko, head of the Belarusian Defense Ministry international military cooperation department.
“The Republic of Belarus will protect its national interests with use of all available means, including by use of forces, and retains its right to take a complex of preemptive strategic measure complex in order to prevent an attack or to neutralize an internal armed conflict,” he said during a briefing for foreign military attaches, partially published by Defense Ministry press office Monday.
Revenko underscored that Minsk is concerned by the “growing Polish military potential,” and the practicing of “establishment of offensive groups and use of forces on Russian and Belarusian directions” in the Baltic states.

Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya urges Belarusians not to partake in the Ukraine War:
“I urge the Belarusian military: don’t follow criminal orders, refuse to participate in Putin’s war against our neighbors”

Belarus claims it is preparing 5,000 shelters to shield residents from missile strikes
This adds to the NATO and Ukrainian aggression narratives that Lukashenko stoked to justify the regional grouping

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Europe / NATO General -

At least 50 metres (164ft) of an underwater pipeline bringing Russian gas to Germany is thought to have been destroyed by a blast last month.
Video shot by a Norwegian robotics company, published by Swedish newspaper Expressen, appears to show the massive tear in the Nord Stream 1 pipe.
Danish police believe “powerful explosions” blew four holes in the pipe and its newer twin, Nord Stream 2.

Iran -

Nation wide rioting continues with no end in sight.

The US warns it will take action against companies and nations working with Iran’s drone program after Russia used the imports for deadly kamikaze strikes in Kyiv.
US, France and Britain say Iran is violating a UN arms embargo by supplying Russia with ‘kamikaze’ drones that are being deployed in Ukraine.

OBSERVATION – It will take some time for any sanctions to take hold – a lot of dipliomatic wrangling necessary in the west to identify and structure. Meanwhile, Iran won’t care one bit because they and Russia have made backroom deals for payment and transport.

Misc of Note -

Parts of southeastern Australia registered more than a month’s worth of rain last week, inundating roads, homes, and some of the best-growing an producing regions in Australia.
“We’re talking here about some of the best growing and producing country in Australia and it has been seriously impacted, whether it’s been the destruction of crops or the inability to access some of these farmlands,” Treasurer of Australia, Jim Chalmers, said. “It will also have obvious consequences for the budget.”1
Major fruit and vegetable producer Costa Group fell as much as 16% on October 17 after warning that its citrus crop has suffered due to adverse weather. Earnings from the division will land “considerably lower” than previously forecast, it said, flagging further downside risk if the extreme weather continues.
Elsewhere, Australian concrete producer Adbri Ltd. said severe rainfall was hitting volumes and costs of goods, while rising inflation was further pressuring margins. The stock plummeted as much as 20% to its lowest since March 2009 after the firm issued worse-than-expected earnings guidance.
OBSERVATION – Expect more weather related hits to food production in the coming year.

Ok folks, things are getting crazy again. Buckle up.

Globalism / Great Reset -

High costs of living are driving people to protest in the streets against crippling prices. The BBC has mapped all reported demonstrations over fuel since January 2021, revealing a huge increase in protests this year.
Fuel costs affect many aspects of daily life - personal travel, transportation of goods, energy for electricity and heating.
Around the world demonstrators have called for change. They’ve demanded that petrol be made more affordable or available at all.
They’ve sat in peaceful protests and they’ve attacked governments.

OBSERVATION – GGR is a global threat and is targeting the global economy, the most sensitive are fuel prices and the associated increasing cost of living. In the US we have largely avoided similar protests, but we are not out of the woods IMHO with winter coming on and potential power/heating shortages.

Wuhan virus -

Boston University did not create a new, more lethal strain of COVID-19 in its laboratory.
At least that is what the University is saying after reports, such as this Fox News report which was spread widely, claimed that is exactly what researchers did at the school.
Boston University is, in fact, studying the virus and it says it is doing so “to help fight against future pandemics.”

BU admits that it did combine the omicron variant’s spike protein with the original virus for testing on mice. And, at first glance, the tests do sound a bit ominous. Because, according to reports, when the researchers infected mice with the BA.1 omicron variant they mostly had mild cases and survived. But when they gave them the original COVID-19 virus with the new omicron spike protein 80-percent of the mice died.
BU insists that there was nothing dangerous happening
“First, this research is not gain-of-function research, meaning it did not amplify the Washington state SARS-COV-2 virus strain (original virus from 2020) or make it more dangerous,” BU said in a statement, calling online reports Monday “false and inaccurate.”
“In fact, this research made the virus replicate less dangerous,” the university said.
A university representative told NBC10 Boston Tuesday that, had their been “evidence that the research was gaining function, under both [National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases] and our own protocols, we would immediately stop and report.

OBSERVATION – Yeh, right. Skepticism meter is pegged on this one.

A CDC committee will convene this week and likely vote Thursday to deliver permanent legal indemnity to Pfizer and Moderna, through the process of adding the drug companies’ mRNA injections to the child and adolescent immunization schedules.
By adding the shots to the childhood schedule, the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) will transfer liability for vaccine injuries to the federal government’s National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP), allowing for Pfizer and Moderna to finally bring an FDA approved shot to the market without opening itself up to lawsuits. Moreover, it will act as another windfall for companies that have already brought in hundreds of billions of dollars in revenues, by requiring these vaccinations for children who attend public schools.

In March 2020, the federal government invoked the PREP Act, which gave Pfizer and Moderna a tort liability shield due to the declared “public health emergency,” which the government is reportedly going to revoke in early 2023. The companies’ emergency use authorization shots have since been protected by the federal government through this 2005 congressional action.

OBSERVATION – Not sure how iron clade this is. Many drugs have been targeted for lawsuits that were also under this ‘shield’. Will have to see how the lawfare plays out on this. But no matter what, such a bandaid by the CDC to cover the lethality of mRNA wuhan ‘vaccines’ is despicable.

Economy –

A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.
The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.
But tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve pressing ahead with rate hikes are raising the risk of a contraction.

OBSERVATION – This is news the biden regime will try to keep under wraps for as long as it can- at least past the midterms. The Fed is on course for another 75 point increase in the prime at its next meeting after the midterms.

Biden said that the Administration would look to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the coming years at a price point between $67 to $72 per barrel. Current futures have oil priced above $72 until at least 2024. Unnamed Biden officials also reported that the administration would continue to release from the SPR into next year if conditions warrant.

OBSERVATION – Right, that and 25 cents used to get you a coke out of the vending machine. Biden also demands oil companies hike production and investment into oil exploration while maintaining an “appropriate price” for consumers. This is in a backdrop of the administration’s demonstrated distain of the industry and efforts to produce conditions that are negative for future investiments.

Barge operators on the Mississippi River continue to struggle with low water levels. A section of the river was shut down yesterday while dredging machines tried to clear sand following a number of ground barges. According to the U.S. Coast Guard, some 700 barges backed up during the wait. Barge companies ordered a further reduction to operating drafts, which will reduce cargo volumes.(FO)

OBSERVATION – Barge traffic is becoming more hit and miss as river levels continue to decline. With La Niña drought conditions expected to continue into next year, shipping slowdowns will also continue, resulting in shortages and higher prices.

According to Bloomberg News, biden is considering an EO that will seriously impact the importation of aluminum from Russia. There are reportedly three options: An outright ban, expanding tariffs to levels that would impose an effective ban, and or sanctioning the country’s top metal producer, United Co. Rusal International PJSC.

OBSERVATION – Aluminum refining requires a lot of electricity. The Pacific Northwest used to have a lot of smelters because of the one time surplus of hydroelectrical power. Over the years, aluminum plants have closed down due to increasing electrical prices and more stringent regulations. Restoration of the aluminum industry in the US will not be something that happens overnight. Consider all the things made from Aluminum and you can readily see how this will nail our economy.

Invasion of Illegals -

NYC has set up a tent city to house the illegals being bussed in from the south.

Biden / Harris watch -

The U.S. State Department on Tuesday walked back remarks questioning Pakistan’s ability to keep its nuclear weapons safe by leftist President Joe Biden, who went as far as to call the South Asian nation, a nominal ally of America’s, “one of the most dangerous nations in the world.”
Offering disorganized remarks commenting on nuclear weapons generally, Biden mentioned Pakistan amid boasting yet again that he has a close personal relationship with dictator Xi Jinping of China.
“I’ve spent more time with Xi Jinping than any person in — any head of state in Amer- — in the world,” Biden rambled, again making the dubious claim that he had traveled 17,000 miles with the genocidal leader, which earned him three out four “Pinocchios” from the Washington Post last year.

OBSERVATION - Another clean up on aisle 3. Another day, another walk back of biden’s proclamations.

POLITICAL FRONT -

According to Politico analysis, 10 House races have moved more firmly towards Republicans, while several other ‘likely Democrat’ contests are now considered “toss ups”. Democrats have seemingly abandoned House races in Arizona and Wisconsin, according to Politico.

OBSERVATION – The repeal of Roe v Wade gave the democrats a dead cat bounce over the summer. Economic and other social realities continue to be front and center in the voter’s minds - and that appears to be strongly swinging Republican.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

(H/T Drago) Cause unknown as of yet, but airliners have been experiencing loss of gps signals in the Texas region.

Cyber Warfare -

Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announced new requirements for passenger and freight rail lines and carriers to implement a cyber security plan to mitigate the risk of cyber attacks. The new directive forces rail companies to develop a “TSA-approved Cybersecurity Implementation Plan” to monitor and detect intrusions, segment networks to ensure that Operational Technology can function in the event that Information Technology becomes compromised, and patch security vulnerabilities. (FO)

China –

Extremely heavy rain brought by Tropical Storm “Nesat” over the weekend hit parts of Taiwan, causing huge agricultural losses. The worst affected were farmers in the northern and northeastern parts of the country.

OBSERVATION – In a time where there is a global food shortage, smaller countries cannot afford to lose any crops.

North/South Korea -

North Korea’s military says it fired artillery shots (250 rounds) in the buffer zone as ‘warning’ over S. Korea’s ongoing military drills

Japan -

Japan’s Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, warned yesterday that the Japanese government would take all necessary steps “to halt speculator-driven currency moves,” including market interventions to stabilize the yen.

OBSERVATION – The Yen is taking hits from the strong dollar, and that Japan may be covertly supporting the yen against the dollar in order to head off an economic crisis.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. Russia may be planning another major withdrawal from the Kherson Oblast in an effort to consolidate defenses east of the Dnipir River.

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Putin is holding a special Security Council meeting today, and the upper house of Russia’s parliament will sit in session — a sign that a war policy shift is imminent. This may well be in regards to the apparent breakdown of the situation in Kherson.

Putin has declared martial law in the occupied regions of Ukraine as officials begin evacuating civilians from the city of Kherson, with a battle for control of the stronghold now looming. Putin said the order will come into effect early Thursday in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions - giving him sweeping powers to curtail the freedoms of civilians and press-gang Ukrainians into his army to fight against their fellow countrymen.
He announced the decision shortly after Sergei Surovikin, Russia’s new commander in Ukraine, said the situation in Kherson is ‘tense’.

NUKE WATCH -
Speculation has been growing that Putin could be preparing some kind of nuclear show of force, potentially including the first open-air detonation of an atomic weapon since the 1960s, which ramped up after UK defence secretary Ben Wallace was summoned to last-minute talks at the Pentagon yesterday.
Experts believe Putin may detonate a nuke at a remote testing ground or above the Black Sea to prove that Russia’s huge but ageing stockpile of warheads still works.

Kerch Bridge update -
Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Construction and Regional Development Marat Khusnullin stated on October 18 that authorities will complete dismantling the damaged spans of the Crimean bridge by the end of December 2022 indicating that Russian forces will likely have reduced logistics capabilities through Crimea for months.

OBSERVATION – This is a huge blow to the Russian logistics support of the entire southern theatre – from Kherson east to at least Melitiopol.

RUMINT –
Russian withdrawal from portions of Kherson Oblast west of the Dnipir river.

Logistics –
- Iranian trainers have been identified in Belarus and Crimea instructing Russians on the use of the drones they have acquired.

- Russian railways are running low on cassette bearings and have taken 10,000 freight cars out of service, with 200,000 more at risk. This is serious, since Russia is heavily dependent on rail transport.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- Tensions growing between Russian minorities and poor against ethninc Russians and the rich as the ‘mobilization’ has hit these regions more severely than the other. The shoot out during training in Belarus is just the tip of the iceberg on the tensions.

Economic Impact -
- Russia is reportedly experiencing a serious shortage of ball bearing for rail road trucks. Russia depends heavily on rail transport and tens of thousands of rail cars have been taken out of service due to bearing issues. Upwards of 200,000 other rail cars are potentially threatened with being taken off line as well in the near future.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.

RUMINT –
Fog of War is obscuring the extent of a Ukranian offensive in Kherson.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Khereson offensive has taken on a whole new sense of imminency this morning following statements by the “Special Operations” general (Armageddon) Surovikin’s speech that suggests Russia may cede much of Kherson back to the Ukraine under the guise of an impending Ukrainian attack on the Kakhovska dam. Other Russian sources have announced evacuations and impending offense as well. Will breakout below.

Russia launched another wave of 10 missile strikes, and 14 strike drones in over 10 settlements.

Another day, another failed Russian attack on the Bakhmut region.

Kyiv front ——
Missiles and drones hit residential and power grid targets in the area.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Scattered missile and artillery attacks in the region

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russian forces launched a limited attack at the border northeast of Kharkiv that was repulsed.

Donetsk Oblast ——
More attacks in the Bakhmut sector with little to no success. Most intense attacks in the areas south of the city. Most intense artillery fire along the LOC from Donetsk northeast towards Lysychansk.

Crimean front ———
Craziness broke out late yesterday afternoon on multiple sectors. So gonna try to sort it all our for you (and me especially).

Yesterday, Russian General Sergey “Armageddon” Surovikin warned about “difficult decisions” lying ahead regarding the city of Kherson itself, as Ukraine’s counteroffensive nears. Future plans depend on “the emerging military-tactical situation.” Too early to tell but the tone of his speech increasingly points to a Russian withdrawal from the city, and possibly a major Ukrainian victory.

At the same time, Occupation authorities in Kherson region of Ukraine declared an evacuation of population from the right bank of Dnipro river, citing threat of destruction Kakhovska dam,. (NOTE – for those unfamiliar with ‘right’ and ‘left’ banks the frame of reference is looking down stream).

Occupation authorities in Kherson region want to move about 60 thousand civilians from the right bank of Dnipro river in 6 days. Images on social media sites show Ukranians lined up awaiting ferries across the Dnipir river. Most of those evacuating are believed to be ethnic Russians and collaborators.
Occupation authorities started to dump water at Kakhovska dam, warning about possible flooding downstream
QUICK OBSERVATION – the flood plain for such a disaster is the LEFT bank as the region around Kherson has high ground on the right overlooking the river. Ukraine also has no weapons to destroy such a massive dam.

Meanwhile, Ukrainians have conducted a complete news blackout on what is happening in the Kherson oblast. Unconfirmed reports from Russian sources claim Ukrainian Army opened two fronts at Dudchany and Davydiv Brid in the northeast of Kherson. This would form a pincer, cutting off nearly half of the Russian forces deployed north of Kherson. These are unconfirmed because Russian source have in the past claimed fake Ukranian attacks in order to claim Russian victories in repulsing them.

The combination of a massive civilian evacuation in the face of a potential Russian military route/withdrawal can only amount to one thing – a massive snarl up of the ferry system across the Dnieper River. Some even suggest that this is planned, mixing Russian military in with civilians to use them as shields. Any large scale Russian withdrawal would likely require abandonment of the vast majority of its equipment and supplies.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Missile and drone attacks across the region.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Things becoming dynamic in Kherson with recent Russian announcements and actions.
Is Surovikin “thinking out of the box” by making a tactical regrouping under cover of human shield?

A lot of guessing at this stage. Clearly Russia is up to something in Kherson. If it is a pull-out/withdrawal, the need some kind of cover story to save face in Moscow. The extended loss of the Kerch Bridge may also be a driving force in these decisions.

Belarus -

Belarusian outlet Nasha Niva receives “signals from all over the country” that men are being summoned to military service. “They invited me to return to the service. They did not explain what the Motherland’s urgent need for me was”, one says
Nasha Niva has also ‘learned’ that even Belarusian schools and university departments are required to form lists of conscripted employees and submit them to the military commissariat.

Covert mobilization of the Belarusian armed forces continues under the guise of training sessions. Measures are being taken to train operators of anti-aircraft missile systems and tank crews. - Ukraine’s General staff

OBSERVATION - Maintaining the OODA loop on Belarus. OSINT and other intelligence agencies are still indicating that Belarus is not about to get into the Ukraine war any more than what they have – being a support base for Russian air force and missile attacks. Some view the current activity an effort to show support for Russian without getting their hands any dirtier.

CRITICAL INTEL REQUIREMENTS –
1. Will Russian mobilized conscripts assume control of Belarus’ armor and tanks to launch a strike towards Kyiv in order to pull resources away from Ukrainian offensives in the south and east
2. Will a joint Belarus/Russian ground attack occur into Ukraine
3. Will Belarus / Russian task forces attack into Poland or Baltics to deflect support from Ukraine.

Russian General Sergey “Armageddon” Surovikin is reportedly known for thinking outside of the box. Launching an attack into northern Ukraine would be disastrous given the condition the mobilized conscripts are in. . So far, Russian forces have been conscripts. No evidence of regular forces being brought in from other military districts as were tracked during the build up to the February invasion. Very little armor/tanks have been tracked entering Belarus as well. This lessens the probability of an impeding Russian attack.

But forcing Ukraine to respond could divert enough assets from the offensives in the south and east to give him some breathing space to reorganized defenses and time for better trained (if you call a months worth of training “better”) forces to reach the region along with what ever armor/tanks they can scrape up.

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Europe / NATO General -

Maritime Security Level is raised to Level 2. More North Sea Gas platforms have increased the level of security, including some in the UK Sector.

OBSERVATION – The sabotage of NS 1 & 2 has northern Europe spooked.

Pakistan -

See biden’s insults above

Israel -

In a reversal, Australia’s left-Labor Party government has revoked recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Instead, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Australia would recognize Tel Aviv as Israel’s capital and that Jerusalem’s status must be resolved through peace negotiations between Israel and unspecified Palestinian entities.

OBSERVATION – Watch Australia as bad things tend to happen to countries when stuff like this happens.

Israel’s Prime Minister will speak to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister on Thursday over Ukraine’s request for Israel to supply it with air defense systems, senior Israeli security official (Ynet). Gantz and Netanyahu both have replied negatively towards supplying miliary weapons to Ukraine.

OBSERVATION – The cost benefit analysis is on going for Israel. Cross Russia and endanger operations in Syria against Iran/Hezebollah or supply air defense systems to take out Iranian drones (and eventually missiles) and incurring Russian wrath. Either way, Iran has joined Russia in the war on Ukraine.

Iran -

Riots / protests continue across the country. Some analysts note that there is a potential split developing between the hard core islamists and more moderate elements in the Iranian govt to strip the religious police of their power and allow more liberal rules for women’s clothing.

Venezuela -

Unnamed State Department officials say the U.S. is attempting to force Venezuelan officials to return to negotiations. The officials said the U.S. would approve a request by U.S. oil giant Chevron to operate alongside Venezuela’s state-owned PDVSA corporation if the Maduro regime returned to negotiations for free elections.

OBSERVATION - SMH, biden pushing out of country oil production while minimizing domestic production.