Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

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Wuhan virus -
See North Korean outbreak below

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Economy -
The retail sector will be in focus this week with retail sales reports scheduled for release Tuesday.

More than 1 million barrels a day of the country’s oil refining capacity — or about 5% overall — has shut since the beginning of the pandemic. Companies have increasingly been relying of overseas refineries to make up the difference as environmental and maintenance costs of older facilities have risen. This has resulted in the inability to keep up with some of the post wuhan demand.

David Beasley, head of the United Nations World Food Program, warns that “Millions of people around the world will die because these ports (Ukrainan) are being blocked…This is a direct consequence of Russian aggression, which can be overcome only together by all Europeans, by the whole free world.”

OBSERVATION - Loss of sunflower oil and grain exports is causing countries to reevaluate restricting exports in anticipation of continued inflation and food security.

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Biden / Harris watch -

Harris at a loss for words, at a recent speech she got all messed up. - “We will work together, and continue to work together, to address these issues, to tackle these challenges, and to work together as we continue to work operating from the new norms, rules, and agreements, that we will convene to work together...We will work together”

President Joe Biden’s job approval rating has hit an all-time low, according to the latest NBC News poll. Just 39% of Americans approve of the Biden’s job as president, compared with 40% in March.
OBSERVATION - NBC’s numbers are likely skewed in favor of biden, but even that special sauce isn’t enough to counter the negative approval ratings.

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CW2/Domestic violence -
After a string shootings where the perp was a non-white, the let finally got its ‘white’ terrorist this weekend. By all accounts he wasn’t a conservative - openly wrote/spoke against the right, but was a certifiable nut job. He is a Christchurch shooting copycat, identifying the mass murderer as an inspiration and plagiarizing large sections of his hero’s manifesto.
President Joe Biden urged unity Sunday to address the “hate that remains a stain on the soul of America” after a deadly mass shooting at a supermarket in Buffalo, New York

OBSERVATION - The nut job level of this individual hasn’t stopped the left to start crying for gun control. How much traction the killings get is questionable.

Proabort protests with Antifa ‘support’ remained pretty much calm over the weekend. More vandalism reported to pro-life offices and buildings but few attacks on pro-lifers. Continued threats being made by leftists, but little to no traction being gained both on the ground and politically.

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POLITICAL FRONT -

Biden Administration informed Congress on Friday that it is about to move five foreign terror groups off the so-called blacklist. The organizations include the Basque separatist group ETA, the Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo, the radical Jewish group Kahane Kach, and two Islamic groups that have been active in Israel, the Palestinian territories, and Egypt. biden administration is claiming that these groups are all believed to be defunct and dead.

White House communications director Kate Bedingfield even refuses to refer to the infant formula shortage as a crisis. Many see the administration’s handling of this dumpster fire one more step towards the demolition of the democrats at the midterms.
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Domestic Terror -
This weekend shootings do not appear to be terror related

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Strategic Activity / Deployments
Looks like the USS Reagan is put out to sea for operations off the Japanese coast.

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China -

China’s economic woes continue, with its economy contracting sharply in April, as Covid outbreaks and lockdowns dragging the industrial and consumer sectors down to the weakest levels since early 2020.
OBSERVATION - This has placed Xi in a kill box of his own makeing with the combination of domestic economy and foreign policy issues hanging over his presidency.

In his recent visit to the Ladakh sector, Indian Army chief Gen Manoj Pande reviewed the security situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in view of the Chinese threat for which the Indian Army has shifted six Divisions which were earlier deployed in counter-terrorism roles and after taking care of Pakistan front.
The Indian Army has been doing rebalancing and realignment of its forces which were earlier more prepared for the Pakistan threat than the challenges faced from the Northern borders. Two divisions (around 35,000 troops) have been feeding up from counter-terrorism roles for looking after the China border deployment. These two divisions will join up with the 3 Division already based there.

OBSERVATION - China continues to build up to control disputed territory with India, and India responds. There will be no resolution on this dispute any time soon as China has also invested a lot of money in infrastructure to support any future conflict.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korea State media KCNA said a total of 42 people had died, with 820,620 cases and at least 324,550 under medical treatment only 3 days after the first Covid case was officially acknowledged.
Kim Jong Un criticized his country’s response to a severe COVID outbreak at a politburo meeting Sunday, saying a policy to keep pharmacies open failed and that police failed to properly monitor and manage the situation. Pyongyang as state media says the country is suffering medicine shortages. In response, Kim has ordered the mobilization of soldiers to stabilize medicine supply (ie, control and monitor the distribution)

BTW, North Korea test-fired three short-range ballistic missiles on Thursday, the same day the country announced its COVID-19 outbreak.

OBSERVATION - wuhan is exploding out of NK control and the question is how soon will it impact strategic weapons development and testing. If Kim’s handling of the nation wide famine is any measure, he will maintain the course, counting on the sheeple to comply - as long as he is backed by the military.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russian milbloggers have begun commenting on the incompetence of the Russian military. This may fuel burgeoning doubts in Russia about Russia’s prospects in this war and the competence of Russia’s military leaders especially given the tight control of the narrative of Russian news media.

RUMINT -
Russian media sources are claiming that a U.S. Military Commander surrendered to Russian forces from the Azovstal Steel Mill in Mariupol, Ukraine. A photo purported to be U.S. Navy Admiral Eric Olson, has been released allegedly showing the Admiral under arrest by Russian troops.
OBSERVATION - VERY MUCH RUMINT and unconfirmed at this time.

MORE - Russian commanders are slaughtering their own wounded soldiers instead of retrieving them from the battlefield for treatment, Putin’s own troops have said. A lieutenant-colonel was accused of personally shooting dead multiple troops as they lay injured. Captured troops recalled one commander asking a soldier if he could walk after suffering an injury, and when the man replied he could not, the officer killed him instantly.
OBSERVATION - Similar reports are floating around early in the conflict as to the presence of ‘enforcers’ (often chechens) who shot the unwilling.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Meeting of CSTO leaders started in Moscow, putin likely to be twisting arms for these countries to supply men and material for the Ukraine war effort
- In Russia, army enlistment offices have been targeted in arson attacks. Four military draft stations have been set on fire across Russia within just three days.
- British military intelligence sources say Russia may have lost a third of the invasion force it sent into Ukraine as its offensive continues to struggle in the face of stiff resistance. There is no clarification if this is just in deaths alone or includes wounded. Some of the latest estimates of Russian deaths put the number at 25K dead and applying a 1:3 ration, this would project to around 75K wounded. Russian started the operation with about 220K including separatists, and mercenaries.
- Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces have likely run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing the Russian military command to amalgamate soldiers from many different elements, including private military companies and proxy militias, into ostensibly regular army units and naval infantry.
- British intelligence reports that Russia is conducting a covert mobilization and creating new units with newly mobilized personnel who likely have insufficient training to be effective and little motivation to fight.

Economic Impact
- McDonald’s is leaving — not pausing — its Russian operations. It plans to sell its Russian business to a local buyer. It will “de-arch” those restaurants, meaning they will no longer use the McDonald’s name, logo or branding.
- Russian assets of France’s Renault now state property
- Russia’s Gazprom booked no gas for June through the Velke Kapusan at the Slovakia-Ukraine border. Gas flows from Poland’s Yamal pipeline also show no bookings for June. Gazprom said no gas would flow if European countries fail to make payments in rubles.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers predominant in the 10 day forecast, indicating that off road conditions will get progressively worse.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukrainian airfare assets made a dramatic return to the skys overnight string targets in the Izyum and Kherson areas. Air strikes in the Izyum area are likely associated with the initiation of a Ukrainian counter offensive to roll up that flank of the Russian attack in eastern Ukraine. Fierce artillery and fighting around Severodonetsk.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -

Russian army shelled Chernihiv region overnight with mortars near Mykolaivka and Hremyach.
Russian troops attempted to cross the border in Shostka district of Sumy region this morning, withdraw after clash with border guards.
OBSERVATION - Trying to draw Ukrainan forces away from the Donbas region.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Once again, a fluid tactical situation .

Ukrainian forces continued to push Russian units away from Kharkiv on the east and northeast quadrants around the city.

Significant Russian artillery fire, probably in preparation for another attempt on the ground to move forward hit Avdiivka, Toretsk, Lyman, Soledar, Zalizne, Bakhmut, New York, Dibrova, and Bakhmutske using air bombs, air-to-surface missiles, Grad and Tornado multiple rocket launchers.

There is evidence that newly mobilized units from occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts are being put into the Kharkiv region and not being used to support northward attacks from separatist controlled regions.

Ukraine airstrikes hit targets in Russian-controlled settlements near Izyum. This is a bold move given how they have been shepherded away from high ADA areas. In Luhansk Oblast, the railway bridges between Rubizhne and Sieverodonetsk, seized by Russians, were blown up to deter the Russian offensive on Lysychansk and Sieverodonetsk

Ukrainian forces destroyed the dam at the Mironovskyi reservoir, 5 km north of Svitlodarsk, on May 14 causing flooding that will likely slow down Russian advances to Severodonetsk offensive operation to the north.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Reports that Russian is using incendiary ammunition against Azovstal as bombing and artillery strikes continue.

Russian forces continued their efforts to reach Zaporizhia City and Slovyansk from Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful assault southwest of Donetsk City, likely to secure the N15 highway to Zaporizhia City

Crimea Front -
Ukrainian aviation and artillery conducted 100 strikes against Russian positions in Kherson region, including at Chornobaivka airfield. Ukrainian combat aviation destroyed a crossing over Ingulets river.

Russian forces appear to be fortifying their positions between Kherson and Mykoliev and other positions towards the east. This indicates that they are not planning of striking to the west any time soon, but want to make sure Ukrainan counter attacks cannot reach supply lines coming from Crimea.

Russian strategic aviation launched missile strikes against Odesa region, including tourism infrastructure and the damaged bridge over Dnistrovsky Estuary.

Western Ukraine -
Lviv region was struck by several missiles.

Russian Territory -
What appeared to be surface to surface missile launches were observed from the Belgorod area overnight.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Ukraine shifting offensive operations southward toward Izyum, Russia continues to struggle in eastern Ukraine with limited successes, but at high cost of men and material. The Russians appear to be trying to beat the clock before the Ukrainan Izyum offensive cuts supply lines.

Amazing, how after 80 days of total war Russia still has no aerial superiority. Russia doesn’t fly sorties over western Ukraine, but fires cruse missiles from over Russian territory. Ground assault aircraft operate over mostly friendly skies. Another interesting note is that the big Russian missile assault of over a week ago has piddled out, both in effectiveness and quantity. This is likely to be the result of growing shortages of missiles as well as poor BDA cycle assessments for follow on targeting. Easier to target civilian / residential areas.

Monitoring how the Izyum offensive is shaping up and where the focus of the attack will take place. If Ukrainan air strikes are any indicator, one main axis could be 65 km north of Izyum. An eastward push could cut off a couple railroads and road networks supplying Russian forces in the Izyum area. Likely this assault would have a northward component, to link up with Ukraine forces coming southward from Kharkiv. This offensive has the potential to be the big game changer, eliminating Russian hopes of a Donbas success and seriously damaging a large number of Russian units assigned to the operation.

Russia faces only bad choices in its assault on Severodonetsk. Lack of maneuver is forcing them to make frontal assaults on the well prepared Ukrainan defensive positions, with its corresponding high casualties of men and equipment.
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Belarus -

Lukashenka accused the West in “conducting a full-scale hybrid aggression against Belarus and Russia”
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Europe / NATO General -

Russia aircraft violated Finnish airspace near Lake Karelia and Finnish F-18 aircraft scrambled to intercept.
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Lebanon -

Election results are being tabulated, Hezebollah backed candidates in some areas appear to have been defeated.
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Syria -

Turkish air force have bombed more than 50 towns and villages in northeast Syria during the last 72 hours. Artillery continues almost daily. This is all targeting Kurdish forces

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Turkey -

See Syria above.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

In a post from a couple days ago, I noted that WEF/GGR supporter Blackrock is heavily involved in Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG). The link below goes to an opinion piece that explains what ESG is in a little better way than I can.

Exerpts -

“Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing is an investment strategy you can use to put your money to work with companies that strive to make the world a better place.”

“Few knew what the initials “ESG” meant 5 years ago, but it is well-known today among corporate investors. One hundred and eighty CEOs recently signed a Business Roundtable statement on business purpose. They have agreed to move away from trying to improve business and the investment outcome for its stockholders, focusing instead on goals involving political objectives.”

“Whoever gave banks this sort of control over the world to collude to reshape economies and energy infrastructure? The answer is the notorious World Economic Forum whose rich members meet annually in Davos, Switzerland, to discuss taking over the world under the leadership of Klaus Schwab, author of the now-infamous Great Reset, which describes how these jet setters hope to accomplish this.”

https://www.americaoutloud.com/esg-is-the-perfect-storm-against-capitalism-to-destroy-our-way-of-life/

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Economy -

In a move to ease a nationwide shortage of infant formula, the Food and Drug Administration on Monday said it has agreed with Abbott Nutrition on a plan to reopen the company’s manufacturing plant in Sturgis, Michigan, after it was shut down following the discovery of a deadly bacteria inside.
The FDA also announced Monday it would make it easier for global manufacturers to sell their product inside the U.S. so long as they meet certain criteria.

OBSERVATION - It will take about 2 months before product from this plant reaches store shelves. The “bacteria” inside the is not the same as reportedly affected TWO infants. FDA is not reporting on the substantial numbers of infants harmed due to the lack of formula. See Political Front below on a key point - shut down of ONE plant did not cause the loss of 40-50% of the baby formula across the nation.

The amount of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell to 538 million barrels, the lowest since 1987. The amount is expected to continue even lower as the 1 million barrel / day withdrawals continue for the next several months.

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Invasion of Illegals -
Illegal immigrants have only limited grounds to appeal deportation orders to the federal courts, the Supreme Court ruled Monday. The 5-4 decision makes it more difficult for those involved in deportation proceedings to get a federal court to review factual determinations that were made by an immigration court about the procedure.
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POLITICAL FRONT -

Conspiracy theory - Is the baby formula crisis a response by the deep state to the impending reversal of Rowe V Wade? How does 40-50% of the baby formula suddenly disappear from store shelves in such a short time frame? Indeed, our dystopian leaders are telling us that this whole mess is the fault of one plant in Sturgis. I don’t think so.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments

Pres. Biden signed an order authorizing the military to deploy hundreds of Special Operations forces inside Somalia—reversing the decision by Pres. Trump to withdraw nearly all 700 ground troops stationed there.

OBSERVATION - No real reason for us to stick our noses back into this quagmire - except it is useful to distract our Special Ops outside the country.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russia is calling the “surrender” of the Ukraine forces at the Azovstal steel plant its greatest victory of the war. It is neglecting the fact that this was a pyrrhic victory where an outnumbered Ukrainan force tied up and chewed up a numerically superior Russian force for nearly 80 days.

Following up on his threat to Finland, videos show a battery of Iskander ballistic missile launchers - which can carry nukes - moving towards the Finnish border. Footage posted on Russian social media claimed the rockets were heading towards Vyborg - a city located just 30 miles from Finland and 135 miles from Helsinki, putting the capital within easy range.

RUMINT -
President putin is determining movement of Russian soldiers, say sources, as head of UK armed forces says Ukraine is winning. His involvement is reported to be down to the operational and tactical decisions “at the level of a colonel or brigadier”, according to western military sources.
The Russian president is helping determine the movement of forces in the Donbas, they added, where last week the invaders suffered a bloody defeat as they tried on multiple occasions to cross a strategic river in the east of Ukraine.
The sources added that Putin is still working closely with Gen Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the Russian armed forces, in contrast to claims made by Ukraine last week that the military chief had been sidelined.

Logistics -
- Russia received delivery of a small number of T90 tanks for deployment to the Ukraine battle zone. Their most advanced tank, the quick destruction of one of the first units to the battle zone was blown up by Ukraine forces within days fo the announcement.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers predominant in the 10 day forecast, indicating that off road conditions will get progressively worse.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
8 killed, 12 wounded as result of missile strike in Desna, Chernihiv region.
Explosions reported at Seredyna-Buda in Sumy region.
The Russian army shelled Okhtyrka Sumy region in the early morning, at least 5 were wounded – region official
In Chernihiv Oblast, approximately 3,500 buildings are estimated to have been destroyed or damaged... 80% of the damage has been caused to residential buildings...The scale of this damage indicates Russia’s preparedness to use artillery against inhabited areas.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Once again, a fluid tactical situation .

Russia attempted to move the forces into Donbas from multiple axises, but generally faced failure with very little to show for their work. A lot of the action overnight consisted of artillery strikes into areas facing Russian ground attacks, in an attempt to soften up the defenses.

Very little fighting coming out of the Izyum area, more intense fighting observed in Lyman, Bakhmut, Kurakhove, and Shandrygolove.

There are but reliable reports that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Donets river near Kharkiv and taken up positions in 2 villages. This is important in that it allows further attacks eastward to threaten key Russian supply lines.

Russian resistance appears to be trying to stiffen up rather than a withdrawal under fire as observed in the north. This may well be due to the fact that if Russia cedes very more ground then Belgorod comes into easy range of Ukraine tube and rocket artillery.

Russian troops shelled hospital in Severodonetsk and conducted 2 airstrikes in Popasna districts, in total 10 dead and 3 wounded. Non-stop shelling tonight in Hirske and Zolote, NW of Popasna with at least 20 houses destroyed.

The Ukrainian counter offensive against the Izyum salient is still developing. Ukrainian forces hit a Russian ammo depots in town of Izyum, destroying a significant stockpile of ammunition.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -

The Ukrainian military says the defenders of Mariupol have ended their mission, after hundreds of soldiers left the Azovstal steel plant. More than 260 fighters were taken to Russian-controlled territory late on Monday. They are expected to be exchanged for Russian prisoners of war.
General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine: Mariupol’ garrison has accomplished their mission. Deputy minister of Defense of Ukraine confirmed evacuation of wounded defenders of Azovstal to Novoazovsk(53) and Olenivka(211) for later prisoners exchange.

Russian and Separatist forces are working at the Port of Mariupol to establish shipping routes from Russia. The Donetsk People’s Republic claimed that proxy militia will de-mine the port by May 25. This would create a shorter supply line to forces attacking northward into the Donbas region.

Crimea Front -
Ukrainian aviation and artillery conducted 100 strikes against Russian positions in Kherson. Ukrainian forces also reportedly struck Russian ammunition and field bases in central and northern Kherson Oblast. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition depot in Chornobaivka again, likely near the Kherson City Airport. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces also destroyed a Russian field depot on the southeastern border of Mykolaiv Oblast.

Western Ukraine -
One of most massive missile attacks against L’viv overnight with 2 waves, some missile were shot down. The missiles were launched from Belarusian airspace just after midnight local time. The mayor of Lviv confirmed rocket attacks on the city. A total of 8 explosions are reported.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes. The “surrender” of forces at the Azovstal steel plant is nearly complete, but they served their purpose in trying down a considerable number of Russian /Separatist forces, chewing them up and keeping them from reinforcing attacks northward into Donbas or westward towards Odesa.

The Ukraine offensive north and eastward from Kharkiv shows no sign of slowing down. The fact that they were successful in crossing the Donets river has opened up new options for the offensive. They also avoided the debacle the Russias experienced last week. Likely actions on the east side of the Donets would be to roll up towards the Russia border and seized control of a major road crossing point from Russia moving material and men to Donbas operation. As secondary operation would be to push further east to secure the crossing site.

Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine will continue to focus on trapping ever smaller pieces of Ukraine forces. They will apply as much artillery as they can to soften Ukraine positions and provide cover for the ground assault but still appear to lack coordination with ground forces during the assault.
It is looking like Russia is trying to secure territorial gains in the Crimea front for part i of the Russian ‘victory’ conditions, lacking sufficient forces to push towards Odesa and north in support of the Donbas operation.

Separatist and mercenary forces will continue to under perform and unable to coordinate attacks northward towards Izyum.

Russia will continue to launch missile attacks on central and western Ukraine but those attacks will come in surges and mostly targeting civilian / residential areas. Their effectiveness in cutting off Ukraine resupply efforts is essentially nil.
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Europe / NATO General -

Turkey’s president has restated his opposition to Finland and Sweden joining Nato - just hours after they said they would seek membership. Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the two Nordic nations should not bother sending delegations to convince Turkey, a key Nato member, of their bids. He is angered by what he sees as their willingness to host Kurdish militants. Sweden suspended arms sales to Turkey three years ago, following Ankara’s military intervention in Syria. And according to the official Turkish news agency, both Finland and Sweden have rejected dozens of requests to extradite Kurdish militants who Turkey describes as terrorists.
Without the support of all Nato members, Sweden and Finland cannot join the military alliance.

OBSERVATION - Turkish islamic radicalism has placed them increasingly at odds against the rest of NATO over the past decade. Turkey is angling for some sort of concession - most likely changes to weapons denial after they decided to purchase the Russian S400 system.

The Russia threat has even affected the most neutral of countries. Switzerland’s defense ministry is tilting closer to NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, putting its fabled neutral status to test.

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Pakistan -

In Pakistan, former PM Imran Khan is fighting back against his removal from office by an April 3 rd non-confidence vote in parliament. He has called for two million Pakistanis to assemble in the capital on May 20th to demonstrate the extent of his popular support. Khan accuses the United States and the military of conspiring with opposition politicians to gain enough votes to remove him. Khan has proved to be a disruptive but revealing politician. While annoying the political and military establishment groups, he retains widespread support from dissatisfied Pakistanis.
The main reason for some of Khan’s political allies to turn against him was economic. High unemployment (nearly 10 percent) and inflation (14 percent and rising) and a collapse of the local currency to a record 193 rupees per dollar are the result of endemic corruption and excessive military spending.

OBSERVATION - Internal strife and potential for civil war in a nuclear armed Islamic country is very serious.
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Israel -

Russian forces appear to have opened fire on Israeli jets with advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missiles when Israel reportedly attacked targets in northwestern Syria last week, according to news reports. This could signal a significant shift in Moscow’s attitude to Israel. If confirmed, this would mark the first time such an incident has taken place.

OBSERVATION - This is serious. Israel and Russia had set up a sort of a notification system so that Israel would avoid Russian manned S300 systems when conducing their raids on Hezebollah facilities. Hezebollah had increasingly placed its facilities near Syrian ADA to gain thier coverage / support. Russia had forbidden this action. Israel in the future will not hesitate to strike Russian ADA if they target and shoot at their aircraft again, greatly raising the risk of escalating conflict with Russia.

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Lebanon -
Hezbollah appears to have retained its parliamentary seats, while some of its allies lose theirs; Saudi-backed LF party wins several new seats. Turnout was low, just 41 percent — eight points lower than in 2018, in the general election Sunday, the first since the Mediterranean country was plunged into a deep economic crisis that has stoked popular fury with the hereditary and graft-tainted ruling class.

The Lebanese Forces (LF) of former warlord Samir Geagea, which has strong ties with Saudi Arabia, won several new seats and should emerge as the largest Christian party.
New opposition candidates also booked some gains, pushing forward the agenda of a cross-sectarian protest movement that erupted in late 2019 against a ruling elite widely seen as inept and corrupt.

OBSERVATION - Minor shift into an Anti-Hezbollah mode. Sets the stage for future parliamentary feuding and more internal dissent that will result in more of the same for the Lebanese people.

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Misc of Note -

Just going to file this here for record. Sri Lanka is a poor third world country and hardly a threat to the US. However, Sri Lanka has descended into real chaos. Hungry residents are literally preying on wealthy residents and officials, burning their homes and cars. The police have open fire to kill with more than 200 people have already been killed.

This is a study in human behavior. After the 2019 BLM/Antifa riots we saw how segments of our society can erupt into violence - we are not immune to similar behavior as is occurring in Sri Lanka. Now, two years later, very similar conditions are building here in the US - with gas and food prices surging and baby formula scarce on store shelves, how much longer will our society be able to restrain similar behavior?

The progressive / socialist left in this country have been waging war against it through the proliferation of multiple ‘crisises’. The food and economic vectors of their attack IMHO are converging with others to hit at a period before the midterm and they are aware that their progressive polices are in the electorate crosshairs. This has brought many theories of biden declaring an ‘emergency’ of some sort, even to the point of martial law, to tip the scales and allow the democrats to retail control of congress. I normally stay away from conspiracy theories, but I cannot ignore that conditions leading up to the midterms are coming apart at the seams quicker and quicker. I am becoming more convinced that biden’s poor management of issues is deliberate and not just the results of klutzy decisions.

Go forth in the coming months with your eyes wide open.

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Black Swans -
It is now clear that La Nina is not going away, and may hang around into next winter. Cold water is entrenched over the central and eastern tropical Pacific (the definition of La Nina) and the latest forecast model runs suggest a continuation into fall.

But first, the bottom line: the summer effects of La Nina are modest, but will push the western side of our region towards cooler than normal conditions. In contrast, West Coast precipitation is hardly changed…perhaps slightly drier on the western sides of the Cascades. I suspect this is because the colder water works against thunderstorms. Interestingly, La Nina seems to have more summer impact over the Midwest U.S. resulting in hotter, drier conditions.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/05/16/la-nina-is-not-going-away-what-does-this-mean-for-this-summers-weather/

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Still looking for additional confirmation on this but noting this for future watch anyway. Iran reportedly is set to be the first country to roll out a food rationing scheme (or ‘limited subsidy’) based on new biometric IDs.

OBSERVATION - Could be considered to be a “food passport” like the wuhan passport. Iran is currently facing unrest over shortages and high costs of food. May be an over reaction to digital ‘credits’ - SEE Iran below.

Amazon’s founder and executive chairman announced a $10 billion Bezos Earth Fund. The billions will be spent by the Washington Post’s owner to save the planet from people.
The Bezos Earth Fund calls for “a great reset that will lead us all toward a more sustainable, prosperous future.” The term, “great reset” became highly controversial after its embrace by the World Economic Forum and the Bezos Earth Fund is touted by the WEF.
The Bezos Earth Fund’s version of the Great Reset argues that the “economy in 2030 must be dramatically different from what it is today” and insists that “radical changes will be needed” that will encompass “some 40 to 60 shifts”.

OBSERVATION - Of course the mega rich elites exempt themselves. . . . .
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Wuhan virus -

A peer-reviewed paper published by the Journal of the American Medical Association concluded that immunity against the omicron coronavirus variant fades rapidly after a second and third dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The proportion of antibodies dropped from 76% four weeks after the second shot to 19% at weeks 12 to 14. The antibodies dropped even faster after the third dose, the booster shot. Between the third and eighth week, antibodies fell 5.4-fold for omicron.

OBSERVATION - This largely confirms what other studies have pointed out
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Economy -

JPMorgan’s commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva warns that US retail gasoline prices could surge another 37% by August to a $6.20/gal national average.

Speaking of gasoline, gas stations in the state of Washington are reportedly reprogramming pumps to include double-digit numbers in “price per gallon” as the current trend could put prices over $10.00.
At the 76 Gas Station in Auburn, Washington located at 1725 Auburn Way North, gas pumps have been reprogrammed to make room for double-digit pricing. In March, they still had single-digit programming.
A Spokesperson at 76 confirmed to The Post Millennial that the gas pumps were reprogrammed to allocate for double-digit pricing. Although not confirming that they are expecting prices to increase up to $10.00 or more, the current trend suggests the possibility.

OBSERVATION - Reports are that this is occurring elsewhere.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday pledged that the U.S. central bank would ratchet interest rates as high as needed to kill a surge in inflation that he said threatened the foundation of the economy.
“What we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way and we’re going to keep pushing until we see that,” Powell said at a Wall Street Journal event. “If we don’t see that, we will have to consider moving more aggressively” to tighten financial conditions. The Fed has raised its benchmark policy rate by three-quarters of a percentage point this year, and is on track to increase it again in half-percentage-point increments at its next two meetings in June and July.

OBSERVATION - This will pop the housing bubble, creating another crisis of affordable home shortages and unaffordable loans. However, this will also savage other credit related items - credit cards rates will skyrocket to crazy levels. And it will cause further hurt to the economy, slowing it down and raising unemployment. Note the convergence factor - July - given lag time worst could hit early fall.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey Index was expected to increase by 16.5% in May, however data came in at a surprising level of negative 11.6%. The change represents a 36.2% fall from last month and is second only to the index published in April of 2020 when Covid lockdowns were widespread in the U.S. This is the second-largest surprise ever recorded for the survey. The Manufacturing Index serves as a preliminary measure for what we might expect in the months to come. The majority of the slowdown is due to falling new orders, higher inventories, and increased freight times that are much worse than anticipated. (FO)

News that the biden admin has been aware of baby formula shortage issues for a considerably long time. From an interview with CNN
CNN: “You are satisfied with the government’s response throughout [the baby formula shortage]?”
HHS Sec. Xavier Becerra: “FDA has kept me apprised of this from LAST YEAR. We have been moving as quickly as we can”

OBSERVATION - Administration has moved from sheer incompetence to deliberate malfeasance IMHO.

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Invasion of Illegals -

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) released nearly 118,000 border crossers and illegal aliens into American communities in the month of April. The figure comes after Biden’s DHS released more than 80,000 border crossers and illegal aliens into the United States interior in March.
Neither of these figures include the hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens who successfully entered the U.S., undetected by Border Patrol, or the tens of thousands of Unaccompanied Alien Children (UACs) the federal government resettles across various American communities every month.

National Border Patrol Council President Brandon Judd said Tuesday that once Title 42 goes away, the Border Patrol will be releasing about 230,000 people into the U.S. next month.
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Biden / Harris watch -

“The Real President Is Whoever Controls The Teleprompter” - Musk
OUCH!
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POLITICAL FRONT -

Following the shooting in Buffalo, New York, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) vowed to pursue new gun control legislation. “[T]he House will continue to consider additional measures to strengthen efforts to combat domestic terrorism. We must never stop fighting to end the bloodshed — because enough is enough.”

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Domestic Terror -
Now that the smoke has cleared, more info on the CA shootings. David Chou, the mass shooter who killed one and wounded five Taiwanese-Americans, was working as a political operative for a Chinese front organization conducting information operations here in the U.S. Chou was a key leader in the National Association for China’s Peaceful Unification, a Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-controlled influence operation advocating Taiwan’s forced repatriation with China.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments

The Navy activated a new Unmanned Surface Vessel Division (USVDIV) on Monday. USVDIV is tasked with accelerating and managing the delivery of credible and reliable unmanned systems to integrate with the Pacific Fleet’s manned naval surface combatants.

Various OSINT observers are noting that there appears to be a massive Sealift Operation currently underway from the Eastern United States involving almost all USNS Ships in the Atlantic, including the USNS Soderman one of the Navy’s RORO Ships who left the Sunny Point Naval Yard yesterday heading likely toward Europe. It is believed that they are carrying heavier equipment and materials for the Ukraine war support effort.

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Cyber Warfare -

According to an alert from the FBI and the Departments of State and Treasury, North Korean government hackers may be using fake credentials to gain employment with U.S. companies as remote IT workers. The alert stated that these “IT workers” might use their privileged access to corporate networks to conduct cyber attacks. (FO)
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China -

Indian media reports China is building a ‘bigger, broader’ bridge at Pangong Tso, along the Line of Actual Control with the Chinese. It says the bridge can carry armored columns. 1st bridge was built in April, used as a service bridge to build the 2nd.

OBSERVATION - China continues to improve infrastructure on its controlled areas of the LOC. This would facilitate any future conflict with India. These areas are also important to China in that they give better access to Mongolia and Tibet.

USDA statistics pointing to what he calls China’s “hoarding” of key commodities. By mid-2022, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of its rice, and 51% of its wheat, according to USDA predictions.
OBSERVATION - China plays the long game and started these substantial grain purchases over a year ago when its internal crop productions were hit by floods.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korea appears to be preparing for an ICBM test within the next 48 to 96 hours (by this weekend), according to U.S. officials. Could be timed for President Biden will arrive in South Korea on Friday and hold talks with South Korean counterparts before visiting Japan a few days later.

On a more extreme end, South Korean officials assessed that the nuclear test could be timed to coincide with a scheduled presidential summit as well

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Russia in response to the expulsion of 41 employees of Russian diplomatic institutions from France expels 34 employees of French diplomatic institutions

Reports that Russia has scraped up enough night vision devices to start substantial night ops in Donbas.

Russian media is discussing a “Donetsk Nuremberg” for Azov Battalion fighters from Mariupol.

U.S. House Reps Joe Wilson (R-SC) and Ted Lieu (D-CA) introduced a bill to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terror for its actions in Ukraine and around the world.

Economic Impact -
- Italian energy giant Eni opens ruble and euro accounts to pay for Russian gas. There are as many as 6 other entities that have done the same to get around the EU imposed embargoes.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers predominant in the 10 day forecast, indicating that off road conditions will get progressively worse.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
A lot of action in SE Ukraine with limited gains by Russia. Meanwhile Ukraine continues to press its counter offensive to the northeast and east of Kharkiv.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Unconfirmed reports that there is a heavy battle near Seredyna-Buda in Sumy region, border breakthrough attempt by Russian troops. There are fires along border line as result of shelling. Artillery attacks have been confirmed by the Ukrainian military, but any ground attacks have not.

Russian army shelled villages of Sumy region with MLRS GRAD and artillery, Ukrainian army responded to the sources of fire

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Once again, a fluid tactical situation .

Ukrainian forces continued to push the remaining Russian forces northeast of Kharkiv City. Increasing resistance has been encountered near Vovchansk, a border settlement approximately 90 km northeast of Kharkiv City. Vovchansk controls a major supply line coming south from Belgorod to southeastern Ukraine (and more specifically - Izyum).

Russian troops shelled Kharkiv overnight along Russian Su-35 jets conducted airstrikes in Bakhmut, Klynove, Soledar and Vovchoyarivka.

Reports that Russia may be closing in on Lyman and the tactical situation may be rapidly deteriorating for Ukrainian troops. Yesterday, Russia reportedly captured Novoselivka to the NW and may have captured Yarova. If these reports are confirmed, Lyman is now surrounded on three sides with only destroyed bridges over the Donets on the 4th side. However, battles have been see-saw affairs, so any action is not final at this stage.

Russia also trying to push out from Popasna to the north and southwest in order to reach the Bahmut-Lysychansk highway.

Most of the Russian activity appears to be coordinated to encircle and capture Severodonetsk. As the territorial goals of the Donbas campaign have gotten increasingly smaller since its start, the battle for Severodonetsk has taken a larger part of the Russia domestic media coverage, some feel to deflect from consistent combat failures. The Severodonetsk pocket is a very small area in eastern Ukraine and the increased Russian effort over the past three weeks to gain control over it indicates the Russian forces are still heavily degraded and tactical operations still plagued with the standard problems.

Ukraine offensive against the Izyum salient continues to develop.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Maripol has “officially” been captured by Russia.

2 missile strikes against Dnipro city this morning, one missile was shot down, but debris damaged a house. Another missile targeted and destroyed transport infrastructure object

Russian forces also conducted a series of unsuccessful ground assaults in western Donetsk Oblast. One assault unsuccessfully attempted to seize a segment of the N20 highway to Slovyansk east of Avdiivka while another failed to reach the N15 highway to Zaporizhia.

Crimea Front -
No significant actions as Russia appears to continue dig in defensively.

Major action focused on Russian missile and air attacks on Ukraine infrastructure. Russian forces continued to launch rocket- and airstrikes on Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts in an effort to disrupt transportation infrastructure in the region. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces launched two cruise missiles at a bridge over the Dniester estuary on May 17. The bridge connects Odesa Oblast with the highway to Romania and has reportedly been damaged and out of operation for over two weeks. Russian forces likely seek to destroy the bridge beyond the possibility of repair to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines from Romania. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command also reported that Russian forces struck maritime infrastructure 70 km southwest of Mykolaiv Oblast.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Explosions were reported in Belgorod, Russia overnight.

OUTLOOK -
Dynamics of the situation can change quickly. I’m at about a 24 hour lag on much of it. Russia will make some gains one day, the next Ukraine.

BLUF - Russia will push hard in eastern Ukraine to try to come up with some sort of ‘victory’ to claim. Capture of the Severodonetsk pocket is high on their list. Ukraine will continue to push east and north out of Kharkiv to threaten Russian supply lines to Izyum and the south along with developing its offensive into the Izyum salient.

Russia is pressuring far eastern Ukrainian cities of Severodonetsk and Lyman, but its gains are costly. Russia appears to be moving slowly in order not to over ever extend its supply chain, and is having success. However, it still runs frontal attacks against Ukraine positions and suffers the hurt.

Ukraine has to balance its offensive and defensive operations so it doesn’t get caught overextended. This is not the time for them to get cocky as Russia is improving in some areas. However, offensive actions are in many cases the best defense and the current Kharkiv offensive and the developing Izyum attacks are good moves strategically. They may be forced to trade some territory in the southeast in order to accomplish the tasks.

The coastal areas east of Odesa will see Russian efforts to consolidate. It will take time but if Russia can restore some operations of the Maripol port facilities, Russian supply to the war effort will be enhanced, perhaps enough to break the stalemate on the southern margin of the Donbas offensive.

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Europe / NATO General -

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Finland and Sweden formally applied to join the alliance.
Turkey has essentially stalled any of the initial talks on the addition.

NATO is conducting vigilance activity NEPTUNE SHIELD 2022 (NESH22), which integrates high-end maritime expeditionary strike capabilities of Sea, Air and Land assets. The activities will take place in the Baltic, Adriatic and Mediterranean Seas, from 17-31 May.
During NESH 22, we will conduct the handover of command and control of the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group (CSG) and the Combined Task Force 61/2, which includes the USS Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), and the 22d Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) from SIXTHFLT to STRIKFORNATO and the wider Alliance.

IN RELATED - Finland’s Navy kicked off a large exercise highlighting its ability to defend maritime assets. The exercise includes maritime traffic protection, situational awareness drills, littoral combat tasks, and live at-sea and coastal fire missions. Finland’s Defense Forces are also displaying their ability to operate alongside NATO members’ militaries before their application.
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Israel -

The US and Israeli Air Forces will take part in a joint exercise simulating an attack on Iran, according to news reports. The simulated attack on Iran will be held as part of the ‘Chariots of Fire’ military exercise, one of the longest such exercises in the history of the IDF. The exercise will take place in two weeks, when many Israeli fighter jets will simulate an attack in Iran, and the US Air Force will refuel the Israeli aircraft.

OBSERVATION - Israeli lack of refueling aircraft is one of the biggest hinderances to striking Iran with something other than missiles. Israel has requested more tankers, US has been stalling. This exercise becomes even more important given that Iran is installing, newer, more advanced centrifuges, which could allow purification of uranium to the 90+ % threshold in quantities needed for a nuclear weapon to occur in a matter of weeks.

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Iran -

See Globalism / Great Reset above

Iranian leadership faces pressure from its own people, who have been protesting in response to a floundering economy. The protests began last week when the government slashed food subsidies on eggs, milk, chicken, and cooking oil leading to price rises of some 300%. Since then, protests have spread to many areas of the country and according to observers have taken on a much more anti-government current.

The Iranian government said it will offer digital coupons that will allow citizens to access a limited amount of bread at subsidized prices, while the rest will be available at market rates. The bread scheme will come into force in about two months and will later include other goods such as chicken, cheese and vegetable oil, officials have said.

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Lebanon -

Hezbollah and its allies lost the majority it held in the Lebanese parliament, as their opponent, the Christian Lebanese Forces, became the largest Christian party in parliament after the final results of the elections in the country were announced on Tuesday. Following are the results of the elections by party, according to L’Orient Le Jour:

* Lebanese Forces: 19 seats
* Free Patriotic Movement (Hezbollah ally): 17 seats
* Amal (Hezbollah ally): 14 seats
* Related to the Future Movement: 8 seats
* Hezbollah: 13 seats
* Kataeb: 4 seats
* Marada (Hezbollah ally): 2 seats
* Progressive Socialist Party: 8 seats
* Opposition Groups formed after economic protests: 13 seats
* Independents: 16 seats
* Linked to March 8 alliance (Hezbollah allies): 9 seats
* Linked to March 14 alliance: 2 seats
* Tashnag (Hezbollah ally): 3 seats

On Monday, Hezbollah MP Mohammed Raad warned other parties to “pay attention to their political discourse and behavior, and to the country’s future” and urged them not to be “fuel for a civil war,” according to Al-Mayadeen.

Hezbollah and its allies won a majority of 71 when Lebanon last voted in 2018. This time 58 seats.

OBSERVATION - Big blow to Hezbollah, after Sunday’s exit polls shows them holding onto control. They will not give up power very easily and the country could face greater civil degradation (as if that is possible). Instability of Lebanon would make any Hezbollah action against Israel difficult as it could see locals covertly aiding Israeli targeting and resistance.
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Turkey -

Turkey is threatening to use its veto to coerce other NATO members to, in part, to halt support for Kurds in Syria. The Turks have become cozy with Russia in Syria and violated NATO rules by purchasing and receiving Russian S400 air defense systems. The latest misbehavior over allowing Finland and Sweden to join has revived calls for developing a mechanism for expelling an existing NATO member. Introducing such a mechanism might take a while depending on how unanimous other members are to do it.
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Venezuela -
The United States is easing some of its tough sanctions on Venezuela in order to encourage political dialogue between President Nicolas Maduro’s regime and its opponents, a senior official said Tuesday.

“The United States is undertaking a number of measures at the request of the Venezuelan interim government and the Unity platform of opposition parties negotiating with the Venezuelan regime, to support their decision to return to the negotiating table in Mexico City,” the US official said.
One action permits US oil firm Chevron to negotiate with the state oil company PDVSA on the terms of any future activities in Venezuela, the official said.

OBSERVATION - Note last line - this is about oil.

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I remember the before years when this was not the behemoth it has grown into and the world wasn’t nutzo.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
The World Economic Forum will hold its 2022 annual meeting in the Swiss mountain resort of Davos from May 22-26, the Geneva-based group said on Friday.

The Swiss government has laid on its biggest military deployment in peace time – not for any war or overseas intervention, but rather to protect the global elite who are gathering in Davos for Klaus Schwab’s annual World Economic Forum confab.
Aside from soldiers erecting security fences, the Swiss government will be deploying some 5,000 military personnel, as well as thousands of local and regional police.
The Swiss Air Force jets will be constantly circling above the event to enforce a ‘no-fly zone’ during the elite globalist summit.

Geneva-based WEF says the meeting will bring together more than 2,000 leaders and experts from around the world, somewhat smaller than some past meetings. No government or corporate bigwigs from Russia were invited, because of the Ukraine war.
Topics on the agenda include the pandemic recovery, tackling climate change, the future for work, accelerating stakeholder capitalism, and harnessing new technologies.

BOLO For the latest schemes to bring the world under global control as they just love to telegraph their next punch.

U.N. chief Antonio Guterres on Wednesday called for an end to oil, gas, and coal use in favor of renewable sources as part of a self-described global climate Marshall Plan.
The veteran Portuguese Socialist spoke ahead of the upcoming World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, which has already issued its own call for net-zero carbon emissions to be driven by a wider embrace of solar and wind power sources without delay.
For its part, the WEF has published a 10-point plan provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as a way to end oil dependence as part of its self-declared Great Reset.
It is just one further step in addressing what the WEF has already taken to calling an “existential threat to the planet.”
The plan includes everything from “car free Sundays” to “avoiding air travel” in its advice as seen below :
1. Reduce speed limits on highways by at least 10km/h
Many countries already use temporary speed limit reductions on highways, mostly to reduce congestion and/or air pollution and to improve road safety.
2. Work from home up to 3 days a week where possible
Around one-third of the jobs in advanced economies can be done from home, opening up the possibility of reducing oil demand while maintaining productivity.
3. Car-free Sundays in cities
Car-free Sundays were introduced in countries such as Switzerland, the Netherlands and West Germany during the 1973 oil crisis. Cities in other countries have used them more recently to promote public health.
4. Reduce public transport prices and incentivize walking and cycling
Investment in public transport and infrastructure to support walking and cycling has been boosted by sustainable economic recovery packages introduced in response to the COVID-19 crisis.
5. Alternate private car access to roads in large cities
Restricting private cars’ use of roads in large cities on alternate weekdays is a measure with a long track record of successful implementation around the world.
6. Increase car sharing and adopt practices to reduce fuel use
Governments can provide additional incentives by designating dedicated traffic lanes and parking spots next to public transport hubs and by reducing road tolls on higher occupancy vehicles. Such measures are in force in suburban areas of cities like Madrid and Houston, among others.
7. Promote efficient driving for freight trucks and goods deliveries
Governments can introduce so-called eco-driving techniques as part of the tuition and examination processes required to receive a driving licence and advanced driving certificates, as has been done in France and other countries.
8. Using trains instead of planes where possible
High-speed rail can substantially replace short-haul air travel on routes that offer affordable, reliable and convenient train journeys.
9. Avoid business air travel where alternative options exist
Although not all business travel by plane can be avoided, in many cases the use of virtual meetings can be an effective substitute. A reduction of around two out of every five flights taken for business purposes is feasible in the short term, based on the changes witnessed during the COVID pandemic.
10. Increase adoption of electric and other more efficient vehicles
By the end of 2021, 8.4 million electric cars were on the roads in advanced economies, building on record sales in Europe in particular. Demand for electric cars continues to be strong, on the back of plummeting costs of batteries in recent years and government support.

OBSERVATION - Most has been posted before, but with wuhan fading, WEF / GGR elements are refocusing on the climate change angle to world control. However, I don’t see any mechanism yet to leverage global compliance as there is no ‘green’ alternative. The ‘green’ agenda is just another scheme to control the world economically .

NOTE - Still watching the as the vote approaches and implications to the US are evaluated.
In a few days, the World Health Organization (WHO), with assistance from the Biden Administration, is set to vote on a provision that could give this organization control of the health directives of 193 countries around the world. Simply stated, in the name of public health, the Biden administration plans to literally hand over America’s national sovereignty to the World Health Organization when the next health emergency hits.
The definition of “health emergency” is vague at best. They could take that approach of leftists here in the US and try to declare gun violence as a ‘health’ emergency - thus negating our constitution protections. Other variations are also available such as global health and climate change, etc. This appears to be the preverbal camel’s nose under the tent.
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Wuhan virus -

The US government has extended again for the nth time the Covid-19 public health emergency past mid-July even though daily new cases of COVID-19 infection have declined since the Omicron surge.
The Department of Health and Human Services has continually extended the public-health emergency since its implementation in January 2020.

OBSERVATION - It is about the maintenance of power.
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Economy -

On Wednesday, US shares recorded their biggest one-day drop since the early days of the Covid pandemic in 2020. The Dow shed 1,164.52 points, or 3.57%, to 31,490.07, the average’s biggest decline since June 2020. It was the lowest close for the Dow since March 2021.
Markets globally were also spooked by gloomy forecasts from major US retailers.

OBSERVATION - Many see the stock market overvalued and prone to more losses. Recent talk by the Fed implying that even bigger rate increases are in the mix and that they may not be enough to get inflation under control - rising fear of recession .

Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said on Wednesday that Americans should not expect immediate relief from high gas prices but maintained that increases in global supply are eventually likely to provide long-term relief for motorists at the pump.
Yellen also warned of the potential for slower growth to combine with inflation worldwide: “Higher food and energy prices are having stagflationary effects, namely depressing output and spending and raising inflation all around the world,” she told reporters.

OBSERVATION - The stagflation concerns inflamed market fears yesterday.

Two children in Memphis have been hospitalized after needing IV fluids and nutritional support due to the baby formula shortage.
The preschooler and toddler, both from different families, were rushed to Le Bonheur Children’s Hospital after their parents failed to secure formula as shelves across America go bare.

OBSERVATION - As I’ve said before, this crisis isn’t due to incompetence - it is deliberate. More infants have been harmed by the shutdown than were alleged to have been by the formula.

MORE - Biden is invoking the Defense Production Act to accelerate the production of baby formula, forcing manufacturers to make ingredients needed and sell them first to formula manufacturers. He’s also ordering use of DOD planes to transport formula from to U.S.
As part of the plan, POTUS Biden is authorizing HHSGov and USDA to find baby formula available overseas and to use DoD civilian aircraft to transport it to the United States, White House says.

OBSERVATION - Cargo aircraft have limited capability for a nation wide crisis as this. They could import enough to relieve a region, but to deal with the whole problem, the whole solution is necessary. This is just white wash over the administration’s malfeasance.

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Invasion of Illegals -

Mayorkas said Tuesday that authorities were prepared for an anticipated increase in migrants crossing the border from Mexico, days before a public health order is set to end after being used to turn people away nearly 2 million times without a chance to seek asylum. Homeland Security has said it will prepare for as many as 18,000 daily crossings, compared with a daily average of about 7,800 in April, though Mayorkas emphasized that those are not projections.

OBSERVATION - This is just more eyewash as it has been made clear under congressional testimony their plan is to simply pass these illegal’s through and into the country.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

In a late night vote, the House of Representatives passed the Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act (H.R.350). The bill authorizes domestic terrorism components within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of Justice (DOJ), and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to monitor, analyze, investigate, and prosecute domestic terrorism, including “white-supremacist-related incidents or attempted incidents.”

OBSERVATION - This essentially is an escalation of the war on conservatives - particularly white conservatives. These expanded authorities will be turned against law-abiding U.S. citizens and will be used to castigate the entire political right as domestic extremists.

Antifa et al continues to provide support to proabort protests across the nation. No large scale violence is anticipated, but likelihood of vandalism and threats/intimidation of any any pro-life individual or groups encountered.

Nina Jankowicz, former “czar” of the Biden administration’s “Ministry of Truth,” joined MSNBC on Wednesday to discuss how the Department of Homeland Security’s Disinformation Governance Board was paused due to “disinformation.”
Senate Democrats abruptly cancelled a hearing last week, where Jankowicz was scheduled to testify, after a multiple of her videos went viral, including one showing her bragging about being the “Mary Poppins of disinformation.” Democrats were reluctant to have Jankowicz face questioning from Republicans, prompting them to scrap the event altogether, which led to the board being disbanded.

OBSERVATION - biden et al will be more discreet in reconstituting their Ministry of Truth, instead of being cocky about it. It is their goal - dominate the narrative and eliminate any opposing views.

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Domestic Terror -

A former National Security Council’s intelligence officer, Chris Chivvis, believes Russia could leverage its network of neo-Nazi and white supremacist groups in Russia, Western Europe, and the U.S.

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in a memo obtained by Axios revealed that government officials are investigating threats to the justices, the clerks, to places of worship, and to abortion clinics.
These threats “are likely to persist and may increase leading up to and following the issuing of the Court’s official ruling,” the memo said.
Axios reported that the memo attempts to link the pro-life movement to white supremacy, highlighting pro-life violence in the past. But the memo emphasizes that the extremist acts might come from pro-abortion individuals.
“The mere advocacy of political or social positions, political activism, use of strong rhetoric, or generalized philosophic embrace of violent tactics does not constitute domestic violent extremism or illegal activity and is constitutionally protected,” the memo adds, according to Axios.

OBSERVATION - Since the release of the draft decision paper, the only threats have come from the left. DHS has to try to spin it towards actions on the right/ pro-life side.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments

In a realignment of U.S. Army aviation assets directed in the November 2021 Global Posture Review, the U.S. Army has activated a permanent Cavalry Squadron equipped with both Apache attack helicopters and RQ-7B surveillance drones. The new squadron, 5-17 Air Cavalry, replaces attack helicopter units that were previously rotated into South Korea on nine-month deployments from U.S.-based units. 5-17 Air Cav will support the Army’s 2nd Infantry Division and U.S. Forces Korea in its mission to defend South Korea. (FO)

The USS Ronald Reagan carrier and USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike groups, the USS America expeditionary strike group, and the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli operate around the Philippine Sea to Japan to Western Pacific, according to the latest fleet tracking report by USNI News.
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China -

Philippines President-elect Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who won last week’s presidential election by a wide margin, stated on Wednesday that he would seek to expand his country’s relations with China and “shift them to a higher gear.” He added that Beijing had assured him of its support for his “independent foreign policy.”

See Japan below on pending joint US/Japan statement on China

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

NSA Sullivan - US intelligence says North Korea could ‘either’ launch a long-range missile or conduct a nuclear test while Biden is in East Asia

South Korea’s spy agency says North Korea has completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test and is gauging the timing of such a blast. Agency also says signs of looming ICBM launch as Biden visits Seoul

OBSERVATION - This will be interesting to see just what test gains Kim the biggest “bang” for his bucks.

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Japan -

United States and Japan have prepared a statement calling for both to “deter and respond to” China’s aggressive military activities in the Indo-Pacific region.
The statement is expected to be released as President Joe Biden visits Tokyo to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida early next week.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Russian occupation authorities announced plans to destroy the Azovstal Steel Plant and turn Mariupol into a resort city, depriving Russia of some of the most important economic benefits it hoped to reap by taking the city in the first place.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers predominant in the first half of the 10 day forecast, with drying conditions for the latter half.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv resumed operations Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, nearly three months after removing its diplomats and suspending work there over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The most intense conflict continued in the Donbas region with Russian forces continuing to press their attacks to try to capture a small pocket of ground around the town of Sieverodonetsk.
Ukraine counteroffensive continued with Russians preventing a further northward advance.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian troops shelled Sumy region 5 times today, and Chernihiv region - 2 times with mortars, grenade launchers, howitzers and MLRS
Ukraine announced that the Russian military shelled the settlements of Yanzhulivka in the Chernihiv Oblast and Prohres in the Sumy Oblast, northern Ukraine.

OBSERVATION - These artillery attacks appear to be designed to harass Ukraine forces and attempt to keep forces pinned down and away from reinforcing defensive/offensive efforts to the south.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Once again, a fluid tactical situation .

Ukraine continued its offensive away from Kharkiv, with Russians maintaining its defensive positions in the north and northeast to protect supply routes from Belgorod. Russia has been able to shell northernmost portions of Kharkiv.

Russian forces remained stalemated at Izyum, unable to make any gains yesterday.

Russian forces intensified shelling and conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Popasna. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces attempted to advance southwest and north of Popasna, but could not seize access to highways to Bahmut and Lysychansk. Heavy shelling in Lyman, Bakhmut and Sieverodonetsk areas overnight with intense conflict being reported around Lyman.
Russian action continue to indicate an effort to surround Sieverodonetsk and gain control of road networks.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian forces are continuing to launch air and artillery strikes on the Azovstal Steel Plant, indicating that a remnant of Ukrainian defense is still in the plant despite evacuations over the last few days.

Russian army shelled Novoandriyivka, Kamyanske, Orikhiv, Olhivske, and Poltavka. However they made no gains on the ground.

Crimea Front -
The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces are fortifying in depth in Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts. Russian forces launched missile strikes on Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts yesterday.

Russian army shelled Lupareve, Posad-Pokrovske, Vysunsk, Osokorivka and Novovorontsovka.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Ukraine shelled targets in Tyotkino, Kursk region

OUTLOOK -
Dynamics of the situation can change quickly. I’m at about a 24 hour lag on much of it. Russia will make some gains one day, the next Ukraine.

BLUF - It appears that Ukrainian defenses in eastern Ukraine are stiffing up again and restricting Russian advances. Ukraine counter offensive will continue to pressure Russian forces and threaten Russian supply lines to the Donbas offensive. I see nothing significant changing this scenario in the near term.

The focus of the Russian Donbas operation has shrunk to the attempted capture of Sieverodonetsk and gain control of road networks that may facilitate attacks to the east and southwest. However, Russian force application continues to be very poor and uncoordinated.

Ukraine’s offensive is endanger of becoming stalled by Russian resistance - something that hasn’t been seen often. It is likely that Russian forces have been reinforced by units needed for Donbas - hindering that operation. A key objective for Ukraine forces is Vovchansk, Ukrainan border city on the main supply route between Belgorod and Izyum.

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Moldova/Transnistria -

Moldova says Russia must take its military out of Transnistria. Strong security statement by sandum aiamd at EU parliament yesterday.

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Europe / NATO General -

Turkey blocked the accession of Finland and Sweden in the first vote for NATO. They have four demands; Denounce the PKK, lift arms sales restrictions, bring back the F-35 program, and lift sanctions for Russian-made S-400 anti-air systems.
OBSERVATION - Turkey’s demands echo Russia’s pre-conflict negotiations. They are barganing chips, for EU concessions. They also seem to reflect Turkey’s love/hate relationship with Russia, in this case stalling NATO growth for Russia. Accession of Finland and Sweden could now take over a year as members maneuver and negotiate with Turkey. This also has created more of a move on how to remove members.

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan: We will not accept attacks on Sweden and Finland during their NATO accession process.

Russian response to Finland’s decision to join NATO will come as a surprise, but the measures will be military - Russian Foreign Ministry.
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Syria -

The Moscow Times said that Russia started to withdraw some of its forces from Syria to enhance its presence in Ukraine, and that Iranian-backed militias entered the sites from which the Russian forces had withdrawn

OBSERVATION - I fully expect to see expanded IAF airstrikes on these new iranian/Hezebollah positions once Israel is certain Russians are clear of them.
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Turkey -

See Europe/NATO above

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Black Swans -
A handful of cases of monkeypox have now been reported or are suspected in Britain, Portugal, Spain and the United States.
Portugal has logged five confirmed cases, and Spain is testing 23 potential cases. Neither country has reported cases before. The United States has also reported one case.

“Historically, there have been very few cases exported. It has only happened eight times in the past before this year,” said Jimmy Whitworth, a professor of international public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who said it was “highly unusual.”

Monkeypox is a virus that causes fever symptoms as well as a distinctive bumpy rash. It is usually mild, although there are two main strains: the Congo strain, which is more severe – with up to 10% mortality – and the West African strain, which has a fatality rate in about 1% of cases. The UK cases have been reported as the West African strain.

The virus spreads through close contact, both in spillovers from animals and, less commonly, between humans. One possible scenario behind the rise in cases is increased travel as COVID-19 restrictions are lifted. Experts urged people not to panic.

“This isn’t going to cause a nationwide epidemic like COVID did, but it’s a serious outbreak of a serious disease – and we should take it seriously,” said Whitworth.

OBSERVATION - New scare, however one should be vigilant given that the numbers (though small) are substantially higher than historical measures. Could her a mutation making more transmissive. One other transmission theory is that it is now being passed thru sex.

Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Big shindig starts at Davos next week

“The return of war, epidemics and the climate crisis, all those disruptive forces have derailed the global recovery,” Schwab, the forum’s executive chairman, told journalists in an almost biblical prognostication ahead of the convention’s start on Sunday. “Those issues must be confronted in Davos, and the global food crisis in particular needs our immediate attention,” he added in an online briefing, according to the Irish Times.
“In a world which is becoming more fragmented, more divided, and where many of the traditional multilateral organisations tend to become dysfunctional, or at least mistrustful, a global platform based on informal, trust-faced and action-oriented co-operation will be ever more relevant, more important than before,” Schwab declared.

Scheduled to be there are heads of government including Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Ivory Coast Prime Minister Patrick Achi, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Colombia’s President Ivan Duque Marquez and Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame. John Kerry, U.S. special presidential envoy for climate, will be in Davos along with 17 environment ministers. Alok Sharma, president of Cop26, is also scheduled to participate. Forty-three finance ministers and 27 trade and commerce ministers will also attend. Kristalina Georgieva, IMF managing director, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde and director general of the World Trade Organisation Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala are also scheduled to be there.

Topics discussed and panels at the 2022 meeting will include:
- Experience the future of cooperation: The Global Collaboration Village
- Staying on Course for Nature Action
- Future-proofing Health Systems
- Accelerating the Reskilling Revolution (for the “green transition”)
- The ‘Net’ in Net Zero
- The Future of Globalization
- Unlocking Carbon Markets

List of American invitees -

Gina Raimondo Secretary of Commerce of USA USA
John F. Kerry Special Presidential Envoy for Climate of the United States of America
Bill Keating Congressman from Massachusetts (D)
Daniel Meuser Congressman from Pennsylvania (R)
Madeleine Dean Congresswoman from Pennsylvania (D
Ted Lieu Congressman from California (D)
Ann Wagner Congresswoman from Missouri (R)
Christopher A. Coons Senator from Delaware (D)
Darrell Issa Congressman from California (R)
Dean Phillips Congressman from Minnesota (D)
Debra Fischer Senator from Nebraska (R)
Eric Holcomb Governor of Indiana (R)
Gregory W. Meeks Congressman from New York (D)
John W. Hickenlooper Senator from Colorado (D)
Larry Hogan Governor of Maryland (R)
Michael McCaul Congressman from Texas (R)
Pat Toomey Senator from Pennsylvania (R)
Patrick J. Leahy Senator from Vermont (D)
Robert Menendez Senator from New Jersey (D)
Roger F. Wicker Senator from Mississippi (R)
Seth Moulton Congressman from Massachusetts (D)
Sheldon Whitehouse Senator from Rhode Island (D)
Ted Deutch Congressman from Florida (D)
Francis Suarez Mayor of Miami (R)
Al Gore Vice-President of the United States (1993-2001) (D)

OBSERVATION - I expect much of the ‘dirty work’ will be done behind closed doors, with the listed agenda being more like eyewash but will give insight to how the GGR crowd will attempt to leverage current crises into movement towards the one world government.
Also - pay close attention to the US delegation after Davos - they are the insider enemies folks that will work with their cohorts to push the US towards the GGR goals.

NOT TO BE OVERLOOKED - Mastercard is rolling out the controversial biometric payment systems, allowing users to pay with the wave of a hand or a smile at a camera. Mastercard will begin testing its biometric checkout systems in Brazil, at five St Marche stores in the city of Sao Paulo. Interested users can register their biometrics via an app or in a store through Mastercard’s partner Payface.
A spokesperson said that it will soon roll out the biometric checkout system in the UK, and is also focusing on markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

OBSERVATION - This system has the potential to be used to collect and store data that can be used to monitor and track users - beyond the current system. Biometrics is a big item for the GGR.

SPECIAL NOTE - Musk has become a lightening rod this week and the latest sex harassment charges seem to follow the classical leftist smear tactics we’ve seen used time and again. But what he has been saying about the left and its progressive policies have been pretty red-pilled and his bleat on ESG spot on. -

Tesla CEO Elon Musk called out environmental, social and governance standards as woke nonsense and slammed one of the most prominent ESG ratings companies in the world.
Ratings giant S&P Global gave Tesla the boot and removed the electric car company from its ESG 500 Index, citing “racial discrimination” and “poor working conditions” in a May 17 blog post. The next day, Musk fired back at S&P’s blatant double standard with a barrage of tweets, attacking the credibility of both S&P and ESG standards in general.
“Exxon is rated top ten best in world for environment, social & governance (ESG) by S&P 500, while Tesla didn’t make the list! ESG is a scam. It has been weaponized by phony social justice warriors,” Musk said on Twitter, a “clear case of wacktivism.”

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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. May have to replace this title with ‘monkeypox’ SMH

An advisory panel to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has voted to recommend COVID-19 vaccine booster jabs for children aged five to 11, at least five months after completing their primary vaccination course.
The committee on Thursday voted 11 to one in favor of recommending the boosters, with one doctor abstaining.

OBSERVATION - This in spite of the overwhelming evidence that the jab does more harm to this age group than the disease.
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world. Global food shortage concerns sparking local unrest . Fed rate increases, combined with inflation data has roiled markets this week.

According to a report by ‘The Economist’, people who cannot be sure of getting enough to eat by 440m to 1.6bn, with nearly 250m on the brink of famine.

OBSERVATION - While this may not affect the US as it may the third world, it is not out of the question, case in point the infant formula ‘shortages’ crisis. The US doesn’t maintain the stockpiles of food it used to and a major climatic / natural event could severely derail this year’s already stressed crop production - with a corresponding explosion of inflation of all associated products.

In a Senate Interior Committee hearing yesterday to examine the Biden administrations’ fiscal year 2023 budget request for the Department of the Interior, Secretary Deborah Haaland refused to answer the question whether gas prices are too high. Senator Manchin challenged her on her department calling for the shutdown of new oil leases - once again - no answer.

OBSERVATION - Biden is doing all he can to cripple our oil and gas industry - deliberately - not from ineptness.

Sales of previously owned homes in April fell to the lowest pace since the Covid pandemic started, according to the National Association of Realtors. Tight supply kept home prices higher, despite rising interest rates. The median price of an existing home sold in April was $391,200, the highest on record and an increase of 14.8% from a year ago.

OBSERVATION - I expect to see convulsions in the housing market over the course of the summer and into fall as interest rates on loans make it increasingly impossible to afford these high prices and the market bubble starts to implode. This will all converge to harm families trying to flee the blue hellholes.

Electrical system operators are now warning that roughly 28 states at risk of experiencing blackouts this summer. Brown-outs and rolling blackouts will seriously impact businesses and factories - rippling across already damaged economics.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s policies guarantee uncontrollable flood of illegals starting the end of this month.

Some estimates are that the dropping of Title 42 could almost triple the flow of illegals into the country.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.

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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - Proabort protests have not gained traction after the USSC release of the draft decision reversing Roe v Wade. Antifa tag alongs to these protests have resulted in limited vandalism.

Far Left Activists are protesting the destruction of the Atlanta Forest in Dekalb County which will be the construction site of a planned police training facility. Antifa has called on activists from across the country to respond.

DHS is expecting more abortion related violence when the final decision on Roe v Wade is finally announced. Meanwhile my Congress rep nailed it - It’s been almost three weeks since a leaker disclosed a draft document from the Supreme Court pointing to a decision to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling on abortion, and Rep. Matt Rosendale told Newsmax on Thursday that at least some of the justices have to know the guilty party.
“We all could probably agree that the justices that were appointed by Democrat presidents know who the leaker was,” the Montana Republican said on Newsmax’s “Wake Up America.” “What bothers me, it’s not only the undermining that it did of the institution and the trust factor that these folks have with each other.”

A trio of senators plan to introduce legislation on Thursday that will require residents to acquire a Department of Justice (DOJ) license before purchasing or obtaining a legal firearm.
The bill would also raise the legal age for obtaining a firearm to 21 years old.
The bill was introduced by Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.).
It has virtually no chance of becoming law given GOP opposition, but gives a sense of the breadth of restrictions on gun access that some lawmakers would favor imposing in the wake of years of mass shootings in the nation.
According to the bill text, the Federal Firearm Licensing Act will require residents to complete a written firearm safety test and hands-on testing, which includes firing testing, to get the license to acquire a firearm. The license will also require those wanting to buy a gun to submit a criminal background check, fingerprints, and proof of identity.

OBSERVATION - this law won’t get anywhere under the current congress as the USSC has made it clear on other issues you cannot ‘license’ a right. But the left’s lawless attitude won’t stop it from trying either though legislation or executive orders. They view the imposition of those restrictions doable while the lawsuits work their way to the USSC so that by the time the justices rule on it, they have extracted a favorable degree of chaos and will then tweak the rejected law/regulations, forcing the lawsuit cycle to restart.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*

“Whoever would overthrow the liberty of a nation must begin by subduing the freedom of speech.”—Benjamin Franklin
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*

Primary elections were held this past week in many states, results confirm that democrats are facing a preverbal beat down at the ballot box this fall.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
On-going NATO support operations to Ukraine.

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Cyber Warfare - YELLOW

Russia cyber actors still seem to be searching, developing possible targets even tho it hasn’t targeted US companies or infrastructure in a big way yet, per CISA “We do not know at what point a calculus may change”
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
DISCUSSION - Expanding lock downs threaten to tank what limited economic recovery China has had post wuhan and the rest of the globe are facing new supply shortages.

China and Russia are currently negotiating a significant oil deal that would be used to fill China’s strategic petroleum reserves. Although Western sanctions on Russia were meant to cripple its economy, Russian oil sales have risen dramatically as Russia is providing steep discounts for purchases made in Russian rubles. China is taking advantage of the low-cost Russian oil and slashing its other petroleum orders from countries like Venezuela and Iran.

OBSERVATION - China is playing the long game - and grabbing deals in the process. Some think China may ‘own’ Russia by the time the Ukraine war plays out.

China’s former foreign minister and current Director General of the Politburo’s Central Foreign Affairs Commission, Yang Jiechi, warned US national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Wednesday that the United States was “on the wrong path” regarding Taiwan and that its moves could lead to “dangerous situations.” The statement was made during a phone call between Yang and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Wednesday. (FO)

OBSERVATION - Another ‘warning’ from China. However, some are becoming concerned that China may be moving its game to the next level with Taiwan as the US increasingly becomes preoccupied with inflation, Ukraine and the midterms.

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India/China - BLUE trending stable *updated 04/15/22*

China in news improving its logistics infrastructure in the disputed region with India.
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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - NUKE test watch continues as work at the test site continues and now under Wuhan lockdowns

Biden landed in South Korea Friday for his first trip to Asia as US leader, aiming to cement ties with regional security allies as concern over a North Korean nuclear test grows. Analysts believe a nuclear and/or ICBM test could occur this weekend.

Struggling with a wuhan crisis, for those not seriously ill, ruling-party newspaper Rodong Simnun recommended remedies including ginger or honeysuckle tea and a willow-leaf drink. The paper also lists other over the counter - style aids that addresses the symptoms. It is believed that Omicron variant is at work in the country, which is easily spread but low mortality rate.

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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.

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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia continues its offensive to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable

Pentagon confirms Russia’s top general remains in his position. Earlier today, British military intelligence said Gerasimov “likely remains in post, but it is unclear whether he retains the confidence of President Putin.”

Russia claims 1,730 Ukrainians have surrendered at the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol

Video out showing Ukrainian civilians being marched out of a building used to detain prisoners and marched to an area and executed by Russian soldiers.

Personnel Issues -
- Two MPs from the ruling United Russia party have submitted a draft bill to Russia’s parliament, the Duma, that will remove the upper age limit for men to sign a contract to serve in the country’s armed forces. The current maximum age limit is 40 for Russian citizens.
- Russian forces are continuing to suffer shortages of reserve manpower, causing the Russian military command to consolidate depleted BTGs. An unnamed US defense official reported that Russian forces still have 106 BTGs operating in Ukraine. It is assumed that the majority of these BTGs are undermanned and under equipped.

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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Ukraine into its third month.

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers predominant in the first half of the 10 day forecast, with drying conditions for the latter half.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine’s military says Russia’s army is advancing in the areas of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, in the eastern region of Luhansk, with a limited break through of Ukraine defenses at Popasna. Russia has also intensified its bombardment of the wider Donbas area, using heavy firepower to damage defenses around the city of Donetsk

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian army shelled Boyaro-Lezhachi, Brusky, Stari Vyrky in the Sumy region and Hremyach and Senkivka village in the Chernihiv region

Eastern (Khariv) front -
The Ukraine counteroffensive to push Russian forces away from Kharkiv continues, though at a much slower pace as Russian defenses stiffen up. The region saw active clashes near Ternova and Vesele, shelling against Ruska Lozova. In last 24 hours Russian troops shelled Kyivsky, Saltovsky and Oleksiivsky districts of Kharkiv with MRLS Smerch, GRAD and Uragan.

Russian ground forces continue to be unsuccessful forcing a northern pincer southward from Izyum to match advances from Popasna as well as failed advances the Slovyansk or Lyman areas.

In the southern sector, Russian forces executed a limited breakthrough to the west from Popasna, reportedly taking Trypillya, Volodymyrivka, Nova Kamianka. The breakout was lead by Russian airborne troops and advanced almost 15 km to the west. Russian forces attempted advances to the north and south as well with limited success. Analysts are concerned that Russia may be able to exploit this breakthrough and use it to isolate Sieverodonetsk.

The following link is to a figure that depicts the situation around Popasna and Sieverodonestk
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTJ_OdGacAE_cXZ?format=jpg&name=medium

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Unidentified partisans reportedly blew up a Russian armored train in Melitopol and damaged two railway tracks and a locomotive with ten fuel tanks.

Russian army attempted to conduct offensive actions near Vesele, Novodarivka , Novomykhailivka and Oleksandrivka but suffered loses and retreated according to Ukraine officials.

Crimea Front -
Nothing significant to report

Western Ukraine -
No significant actions.

Russian Territory -
Russian media and local Telegram channels reported deliberate acts of arson against military commissariats in three Moscow Oblast settlements—Omsk, Volgograd, Ryazan Oblast, and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District—between May 4 and May 18. Ukrainian General Staff Main Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov said that there were at least 12 cases of deliberate arson against military commissariats in total and five last week. Russian officials caught two 16-year-olds in the act in one Moscow Oblast settlement, which suggests that Russian citizens are likely responsible for the attacks on military commissariats.

OUTLOOK -

The limited Russian breakthrough at Popasna has analysts concerned that they could successfully cut off Sieverodonetsk and isolate the troops there. Russian propaganda pushing that the big goal for the Donbas operation is the capture of Sieverodonetsk. However, the advanced out of Popasna is still severely limited to roads and its logistical tail very vulnerable to Ukraine interdiction. This is probably one of the more important battles of the war.
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Moldova/Transnistria - ORANGE *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - This category added this week as false flag events hit Russian controlled Transnistria and Russia agitates this small country.

Nothing significant to report.

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Belarus - ORANGE *updated 04-22-22*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.

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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine.

Turkey threw a monkey wrench into the application process of Sweden and Finland. Turkey is angling to get sanctions removed for its buddy-buddy deals with Russia and aggressive actions towards Greece in exchange
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Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Continued terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has kept tensions high.
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Lebanon - YELLOW

National elections have resulted in Hezebollah and affiliated losing control of the parliament and setting the stage for more civil unrest.
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Syria - YELLOW

Russia is pulling out and Hezebollah/Iran is backfilling.
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Turkey - YELLOW *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - Turkey mostly in the news now blocking NATO membership of Sweden and Finland.

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Black Swans -
Monkeypox
UK Health Security Agency has warned gay and bisexual men to be alert for monkeypox, a disease that they say has been spreading “in sexual networks” in the country. “We are particularly urging men who are gay and bisexual to be aware of any unusual rashes or lesions and to contact a sexual health service without delay.”
Monkeypox contact tracers are probing gay bars and spas as they scramble to contain an outbreak of the rare disease. Health chiefs in the UK are ‘actively investigating’ venues visited by six homosexual and bisexual men who tested positive in the past week.
Six of Britain’s nine confirmed cases are men who have sex with men, which officials say is ‘highly suggestive of spread in sexual networks’.
A similar pattern is emerging in Europe, where seven gay or bisexual men have tested positive in Spain and nine ‘mostly young’ males in Portugal.
The number of patients treated for suspected Monkeypox in the last two days in Madrid is “between 40 and 50”, hospital sources tell El Pais “the flow of patients to the emergency services has not stopped”

However, monkeypox itself does not necessarily seem to be spread via sexual contact itself, with Professor Keith Neal of the University of Nottingham instead suggesting that it is instead a result of “the close contact associated with sexual intercourse.” He added that more work needs to be done to see “whether the virus is found in semen” before labeling it as truly sexually transmitted.

OBSERVATION - This is MEGA politically incorrect and there are elements out there trying to sweep these observations under the carpet.
Another thought is what is the wuhan jab status of these individuals given that evidence is pointing to the fact that the jab actually reduces the overall immune system response of the body.

One last point - Last year in November, billionaire Bill Gates warned of bioterror and called on world leaders to prepare for it with what he calls “germ games” or exercises. Gates said governments should be prepared for future pandemics and – very specifically – smallpox terror attacks by investing billions in research.

Meanwhile to the rescue - The U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) has exercised the final $12 million option for JYNNEOS, an innovative combination of Smallpox and Monkeypox vaccine. JYNNEOS is the only U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccine for preventing disease in adults 18 years of age and older.

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Economy -

Markets last week took a beating, pushing towardsthe longest losing streak in nearly 100 years. Market analysts now viewing things entering a bear market phase.

Harley-Davidson is suspending manufacturing for two weeks and has shut down operations in Wisconsin and York, Pennsylvania due to supply chain issues. The shutdown affects the Harley plant in Menomonee Falls. According to a company press release, the decision was made “out of an abundance of caution, is based on information provided by a third-party supplier to Harley-Davidson late on Tuesday concerning a regulatory compliance matter relating to the supplier’s component part.”
The news sank Harley’s stock price nearly 9% shortly before Thursday’s market open. Shares closed at $32.43, down 9.3%.

OBSERVATION - This reflects the possible start of a resurgence of supply issues for American companies.

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Invasion of Illegals -

U.S. District Court Judge Robert Summerhays of the Western District of Louisiana on Friday afternoon blocked the U.S. government from ending the Title 42 policy, forcing U.S. border officials to continue turning most illegal migrants back to Mexico rather than taking them into custody.

OBSERVATION - Will biden et al try to do a slow walk on this decision, toeing the line and creating loopholes while appealing the decision. He’s done it in the past.
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Biden / Harris watch -

Biden’s general approval rating has slumped to 35 percent (down from 38 percent in the last Quinnipiac Poll)
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Last year, the National School Boards Association (NSBA) penned a letter to the Department of Justice in which it urged the administration to target parents who dissent from left-wing educational initiatives as “domestic terrorists.” Fox News reports that the NBSA conducted its own review of the letter, and CEO and executive director John Heim said in a statement that the correspondence goes against the association’s “core commitments to parent engagement, local control, and nonpartisanship.”

OBSERVATION - Fox guards henhouse. To date - Garland has not reminded the memo targeting parents as domestic terrorists.
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POLITICAL FRONT -

Catholic Archbishop Salvatore Cordileone said he formally notified U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi this week that she is not allowed to receive communion unless she repents of her abortion advocacy. Cordileone, who serves Pelosi’s home district of San Francisco, said he informed the congresswoman of his decision Thursday after repeated attempts to speak with her about the “grave evil” that she is supporting.
“After numerous attempts to speak with her to help her understand the grave evil she is perpetrating, the scandal she is causing, and the danger to her own soul she is risking, I have determined that the point has come in which I must make a public declaration that she is not to be admitted to Holy Communion unless and until she publicly repudiate her support for abortion ‘rights’ and confess and receive absolution for her cooperation in this evil in the sacrament of Penance.”
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Strategic Activity / Deployments

Swedish officials are requesting a larger U.S. naval presence in the Baltic Sea as part of the ongoing diplomatic push for Sweden and Finland to join NATO, two defense officials told USNI News on Thursday.

U.S. aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-72) departed Yokosuka on Friday for its 2022 spring patrol, U.S. 7th Fleet said in a news release. Destroyers from Destroyer Squadron 15 and cruisers USS Chancellorsville (CG-62) and USS Antietam (CG-54) make up Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group.
While Reagan departs, USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) will make a port visit to Yokosuka on Saturday, Yokosuka City’s official website said in a news release.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

State Dep - “We remain concerned that the DPRK may attempt to undertake another provocation during the course of the president’s visit to Northeast Asia or in the days following that could include another ICBM test, that could include a test of a nuclear weapon.

Nearly 2.5 million people have been sickened by “fever” in North Korea and it is under a nationwide lockdown, according to the country’s state media. NK has turned down offers of help from SK and the US.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Economic Impact -
- The ruble surged to the highest level in seven years against the euro as more European companies appeared to be complying with Vladimir Putin’s demand that they switch to paying in Russia’s currency for natural gas.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers scattered throughout the 10 day forecast

Portuguese PM arrived in Kyiv and also visited Irpin.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Russian troops reportedly regained positions taken by Ukrainian counteroffensives north of Kharkiv City & and appear to have made gains to the north, west, & south of Popasna to continue their offensive on Severodonetsk from the south.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Once again, a fluid tactical situation .

Ukraine continued its offensive away from Kharkiv, with reports of limited Russian counter attacks seeking to undo Ukrainan gains north of Kharkiv. Fighting was reported in Vesele, Tsyrkuny, Zolochiv, and Ternova and Russian forces may have recaptured Ternova and Rubizhne.
Russia shelled cities northeast of Kharkiv - Derhachi, Bezruki, Slatyne, Prudyanka and Ruska Lozova.

Russian missile strike hit House of Culture in Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast.

Donetsk Oblast (Eastern Ukraine) *NEW* -
As the battle has morphed, I’m separating what was once the southern portion of the Kharkiv Front to a new zone. This covers the Izyum to southwest of Popasna areas of combat. I’ve been separating these in the past, just making it more formalized.

The battle around Popasna / Sieverodonetsk intensified overnight as Russia pressed attacks towards Lyman, Severodonetsk, Siversk, Lysychansk and Bakhmut.

Russian forces intensified efforts to break through Ukrainian defenses around Popasna in order to push towards Severodonetsk from the south yesterday. Pro-Russian news (NOTE propaganda alert) sources reported that Russian forces made advances through Ukrainian lines of defense in three directions. Russian Airborne (VDV) forces reportedly took control of Volodymirivka and Lypove, and broke through Ukrainian defenses in Komyshuvakha, all north of Popasna. Troops of the Russian ”Wagner” Private Military Company reportedly took control of Trypillya and Vyskrivka to the west of Popasna. However, these operations are consistent with Ukrainian General Staff statements that the Russian grouping around Popasna is trying to take new territory. Russian troops reportedly made marginal gains and took control of Shchedryshcheve and Syrotne, just north of Severodonetsk.

The links below depicts some of the most recent activity.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTJ_OdGacAE_cXZ?format=jpg&name=medium

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTQLCmcWAAAvWiA?format=jpg&name=large

Southern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front *** RENAMED ***-
Given the changes in the war, this is now the SOUTHERN front, still comprised of separatist controlled territory.

Russians still in the process of consolidating control of Mariupol and processing Ukraine POWs and other evacuees. Reports that residents are being forcibly mobilized into the militia of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR).

Scattered Russian/separatist attacks along the LOC with no advances.

Crimea Front -
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops are bringing engineering equipment to frontlines on the Southern Axis to construct a second line of defense, which likely indicates that Russian forces are preparing to defend against possible Ukrainian counter-offensives.

Missile strike was reported in Odesa district

Western Ukraine -
Russian missile strike at military object in Rivne region.

Russian Territory -
Ukraine shelled targets in Tyotkino, Kursk region

OUTLOOK - Battles continue to be fluid.

BLUF - Russia is rolling the dice and concentrating efforts to capture the Sieverodonetsk region.

Russia has committed its best trained and battle hardened units to the breakout at Popasna - the VDV and Wagner Group mercenaries. However, Russia will be forced to rely on regular units to carry the attack in the near future. That is where things are likely to start stalling out. The next few days will be critical to see if Ukraine’s defensive measures are up to the task of blunting the Russian advance.

The Russian successes at Popasna have had another effect and that is what appears to be the diversion of Ukrainan resources from its Izyum counter offensive to the Popasna/Sieverodonetsk defense. Not completely confirmed, but news of action against the Izyum salient has dropped off significantly.

Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive is hitting a wall against limited Russian counter attacks. This may serve to delay the Ukraine forces or cause the commitment of more units.

___________________________________

Belarus -

Putin will hold a meeting with Belarusian president Lukashenko in Sochi some time in the next few days.
______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

Russia to cut off Finland from natural gas supplies today. Most gas used in Finland comes from Russia but gas only accounts for about 5 per cent of the Scandinavian country’s annual energy consumption. Moscow already cut off gas to Bulgaria and Poland last month after they refused to comply with new Russian rules requiring settlements in roubles

OBSERVATION - I said before the war kicked off Russia has a big economic stick available to it in its domination of natural gas to the rest of Europe.

____________________________________

Israel -

IAF stuck targets near Damascus’ airport overnight. Syria reports at least two interceptions reports of 6 impacts. The Israeli strikes reportedly targeted Iranian positions and weapon depots.
____________________________________

Syria -

See IAF airstrikes under Israel above.

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Black Swans -
MONKEY POX - This may soon warrant its own topic line.

Where have we sen this movie before??? An international biosecurity conference in Munich A YEAR AGO held a simulation of a “global pandemic involving an unusual strain of Monkeypox” beginning in mid-May 2022. Oh yeh, I remember, “Event 201” - the simulation of an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic.

World Health Organization: Monkeypox has so far been reported from 11 countries that normally don’t have the disease. WHO is working with these countries & others to expand surveillance, and provide guidance. There are about 80 confirmed cases, and 50 pending investigations. More likely to be reported.

Israel reported on Friday its first suspected case of the monkeypox virus at Tel Aviv hospital where a man who reportedly came back from a trip to Western Europe was hospitalized.

A sauna in Spain’s capital has been forced to close over a suspected link to a monkeypox outbreak in the country, health authorities said Friday. Several European countries have reported cases in recent days, and the World Health Organization is investigating whether some outbreaks spread within the gay community. The Paraiso sauna, a gay-friendly establishment whose name means “paradise” in the heart of Madrid, said on Twitter it was shutting its doors.

WHO’s Europe regional director Hans Kluge warned that “as we enter the summer season... with mass gatherings, festivals and parties, I am concerned that transmission could accelerate”.
He added that all but one of the recent cases had no relevant travel history to areas where monkeypox was endemic.

Authorities are also noting that there has been no unusual changes in infections rates in West Africa.

OF ADDITIONAL NOTE - Out of all the cases reported outside Africa, they are all MEN. Not a single woman reported that I’ve seen. This builds upon the observation that these men are transmitting the disease via homo/bisexual activity.

SUMMARY - Monkeypox according to authorities has long been relatively predictable and contained in Central and West Africa. Small numbers of cases have cropped up elsewhere in the world before, including the UK, but all can be immediately linked to somebody having traveled to an affected country and bringing it home.

That is no longer the case.
* For the first time the virus is being found in people with no clear connection to Western and Central Africa
* It is not clear who people are catching it from
* Monkeypox is spreading during sexual activities with most cases having lesions on their genitals and the surrounding area
* Many of those affected are gay and bisexual young men

This has caused the concern in the medical community. So far it seems as long as you are not engaging in gay/bisexual activities you should be safe. Until more information comes out, I don’t see this as wuhan 2.

Good OP at this FR thread -
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4065047/posts

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