Replies

Had to take a day off. Culling the information can really be a downer. I remember my early posts when life was simpler and the threats less urgent. Seeing all these areas and the potential for affecting us here in America, one cannot help but to be upset.

But to be forewarned is to be forearmed.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro declared his nation would not be signing the World Health Organization’s Pandemic Treaty, which is being pushed by the globalist elites and their puppets in the White House. This comes ahead of the WHO’s plans to discuss implementation of the treaty at the World Health Assembly from May 22-28.

OBSERVATION - While under much dispute, the ‘treaty’ amendments undermine the US by taking over actions now currently directed by the CDC. From wuhan, we’ve all seen how how extra legislative and extra law full their ‘edicts’ were. This would be transferred to the WHO. Many see this as a massive power-grab that eventually will not be limited to pandemic responses. This is an opening play towards the greater goal for the New World Order of usurping national sovereignty and bringing the world under the role of a single government.
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Wuhan virus -

Wuhan lockdowns continue in the city of Shanghai, a crucial part of China’s financial apparatus, is requiring supermarkets and shops to shut down and ordering residents to stay home until at least Tuesday. Reuters reported. that Shanghai’s central Jingan district, which plays a crucial role in the financialization of the Chinese economy, is forcing these new restrictions while also planning to carry out mass covid testing into the first half of the next week.
Exit permits given to residents in the region, which allow people to leave their homes, will be suspended. The local district government did not provide an explanation for the passes’ suspension.

And in the US they just can’t give it up. “We’re just not done yet” with COVID, Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House coronavirus coordinator, told ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday:
“Because, look, we have a lot of infections out there. It’s still quite disruptive. And 300 people a day are still dying of this disease. That’s way too much,” Jha said.

OBSERVATION - Someone need to remind the good Dr. that the science is masks don’t work and neither do the jabs.
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Economy - The United States is facing its worst pilot shortage in recent memory, forcing airlines to cut flights just as travelers are returning after more than two years of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Covid pandemic halted pilot hiring as training and licensing slowed. Airlines handed out early retirement packages to thousands of pilots and other employees aimed to cut labor bills when travel demand cratered during the depths of crisis. Industry experts indicate it could take as much as 5 years to regain all the pilots it needs.

Market analysts are on the watch this week after stocks dipped into bear territory last week. Before the pandemic, the last time the economy experienced a bear market was during the financial crisis more than a decade ago. That bear market lasted for a brutal 517 days.

Top of the list are concerns over rising indicators of an impending recession. Various forecasters are trying to put their thumb on exactly what the chances of a full-blown recession are. A recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private academic group, as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” Some see it as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of this year. If GDP contracts again, it would signal a recession, although a survey of forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia found that the consensus was that GDP will grow by 2.3% annually this quarter.

Overall, last week’s sell-off in the stock market doesn’t mean a recession is coming, but it does show that there is a lack of confidence among investors about the future of the economy and that the markets are essentially pricing in a recession.
“I don’t think you can have a completely benign soft landing of the economy at this point,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America Corp. “We’re either going to have a weak economy or a recession.”

The average U.S. price of regular-grade gasoline spiked 33 cents over the past two weeks to $4.71 per gallon. Industry analyst Trilby Lundberg of the Lundberg Survey said Sunday that the price jump comes amid higher crude oil costs and tight gasoline supplies. The average price at the pump is $1.61 higher than it was one year ago.

The first shipment of 70,000 lbs worth of baby formula from Germany arrived in Indianapolis on Sunday morning. It will not be hitting store shelves, but being directed instead to hospitals, doctors, home health care facilities, and pharmacies in regions “where the needs are most acute,”.

OBSERVATION - The US, allegedly a first world country, has a third world problem with baby food. These aircraft loads are but a drop in the bucket compared to the needs of the country, nothing but PR BS.

Sara Menker, the CEO of agriculture analytics firm Gro Intelligence, told the UN Security Council that the Russia-Ukraine war was not the cause of a food security crisis but “simply added fuel to a fire that was long burning.” She estimated that the world has about 10 weeks of wheat supplies stored.

OBSERVATION - I know I’ve harped about food shortages a lot lately, and i want to avoid unbiased doom porn. However, food shortage warnings I’m seeing now in a way resemble the early warnings about infant formula shortages last year - based on the kinds of supply shortages plaguing other food sector industries. Key point - the biden shutdown of 40% of infant formula production wasn’t on the radar at that stage. This just goes to show how a ‘black swan’ event like the Abbot plant shut down could devastate a sector. If another ‘black swan’ events hits grain production - the dire cries of famine won’t be so tinfoil hat doom porn. Lets keep a close eye on this one - and stock up now.

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Biden / Harris watch -

Biden Sends Message to Kim Jong Un: “Hello. Period”

Only 39% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s performance as president, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Research, dipping from already negative ratings a month earlier.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

Apart from some continued vandalism, Antifa actions with proabort protests have been generally underwhelming. Watching today to see if the USSC does issue the final on Roe v Wade and if that triggers a more violent response. Responses from the leak suggest that Antifa violence won’t gain traction if / when that occurs.

H.R. 350, or the “Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act,” passed by a margin of 222-203. The vote was almost entirely along party lines, with every single House Democrat and a lone House Republican— the reprehensible RINO Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois— voting to approve the measure.
The proposal would reportedly create “domestic terrorism offices” within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Department of Justice (DOJ), and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), according to The Hill. The offices would be tasked with “monitoring and scrutinizing potential terror activity,” with a heavy emphasis on terror activity deemed motivated by “white supremacist” or “neo-Nazi” sentiments.
Democrats have predictably framed the bill as a necessary response to the mass shooting perpetrated by an avowed white supremacist at a Buffalo, New York, grocery store last week. The perpetrator, however, characterized himself online as being in the “mild-moderate-authoritarian Left category.”

OBSERVATION - Folks, I see this as another step by the socialists/progressives in control of the govt to execute a crack down on Americans in the near future. My biggest concerns are that they may attempt this in time to disrupt the midterm elections in an attempt to maintain control congress.

The Supreme Court could issue its ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Center as soon as Monday, according to a report from Fox News. The Supreme Court issues opinions on Mondays at 10 a.m. ET., meaning the next possible day the opinion could drop is May 23.
NOTE - as of writing this post, nothing has hit the wires.
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China -

In Japan today, Biden said he’d be willing to use military force to defend Taiwan.

The Taiwanese government expressed regret Sunday that the Biden administration has chosen to exclude it from its new Indo-Pacific economic framework (IPEF), a key regional initiative being launched by President Biden in Japan on Monday.
“As an important economy that plays a crucial role in the global supply chain, Taiwan is definitely qualified for inclusion in the IPEF,” Taiwan’s Central News Agency quoted the island democracy’s foreign ministry as saying in a release.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Observers had thought NK would pop a nuke or ICBM this weekend. NK may be too distracted in dealing with wuhan to have maintained that option. Still on the table in the near term

A large number of North Koreans including leader Kim Jong Un attended a funeral for a top official, state media reported Monday, as the country maintained the much-disputed claim that its suspected coronavirus outbreak is subsiding.
KCNA said Monday that 167,650 new fever cases had been detected in the past 24-hour period, a notable drop from the peak of about 390,000 reported about one week ago. It said one more person died and that the fever’s fatality rate was 0.002%.

OBSERVATION - These numbers and outlook are likely skewed to make Kim look good

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Japan -

The Chinese ship sailed through the Osumi Strait on Thursday, while the Russian ship sailed through La Pérouse Strait on Wednesday. The People’s Liberation Army Navy’s 41st Chinese Naval Escort Taskforce sailed through the Miyako Strait on Thursday while en route to the Gulf of Aden, according to Japan Ministry of Defense releases. This and other naval activity round Japan are part of an increase presence of Russian and Chinese naval forces in the Japan area.

OBSERVATION - Rather than dissuade Japan from taking a more passive approach in the region, continued tactics like this by Russia and China are having the opposite effect, driving Japan to expand its defensive and OFFENSIVE capabilities.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now ending the third month of the war and proceeding to enter the fourth.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the military is building new bases in its Western Military District. This is in response to “NATO aggression” via strategic bomber flights, maritime patrols, and NATO exercises. “By the end of the year, 12 military units and divisions will be established in the Western Military District,” Shoigu said.(FO)

Economic Impact -
- Over the weekend, Russia’s Gazprom cut off natural gas supplies to Finland.
- The ruble has regained strength due largely to Russia insistence that gas payments be made in it.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers scattered throughout the 10 day forecast

Polish PM arrived in Kyiv and addressed the legislature over the weekend.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Relatively quiet weekend, with few gains.
- Continued but slower gains by Russian forces around Popasna (more below).
- Novoselivka captured by Russians, near Lyman
- Russian troops entered Oskil following Ukraine withdrawal.

But that they have not been able to capture many of the towns or complex terrain around the area just yet, and Ukrainian forces have been able to establish more complex defensive lines in the days since the initial breakthrough, leading to a slowing/fizzling out of the offensive.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces maintained their positions to prevent further Ukrainian advances toward the Russian border and conducted air and artillery strikes north of Kharkiv City. Russian forces are likely reinforcing their grouping north of Kharkiv City to prevent further advances of the Ukrainian counteroffensive toward the Russian border.

Donetsk Oblast NEW -
As the battle has morphed, I’m separating what was once the southern portion of the Kharkiv Front to a new zone. This covers the Izyum to southwest of Popasna areas of combat.

Russian forces focused on offensive operations around Lyman but did not make any confirmed advances. Russian army shelled infrastructure near Lyman, Ozerne and Dibrova settlements,

Russia also launched attacks on the eastern side of Severodonetsk, but were unsuccessful.

Attacks north and west out of Popasna Russian forces had no success at Oleksandropillya, Lypove and Trypillya

The links below depicts some of the most recent activity.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTJ_OdGacAE_cXZ?format=jpg&name=medium

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTQLCmcWAAAvWiA?format=jpg&name=large

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian airstrikes and artillery barrages stuck along most of the LOC in this region. Separatist forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic claimed that they took control of Novoselivka, a village in southern Donetsk Oblast.

Crimea Front -
Nothing significant to report. Analysts looking at the possibility that forces are preparing for an offensive to capture the whole of the Kherson Oblast.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

BLUF - Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine slowed considerably over the weekend as it appears that Ukraine forces have stiffened their defense and Russian forces are switching to more conventional units following the breakthrough attacks by VDV and mercenaries.

Things will continue to be dynamic in eastern Ukraine. I expect that Russia will continue to claw more territory away from Ukraine, but at an increasing cost of men and equipment. If one looks at the larger map, the Popasna/Severodonetsk pocket is pretty small - far, far smaller than the Russian gains in the initial phase of the war, yet having the highest concentration of forces and the highest priority of effort.

The Russian Popasna/Severodonetsk effort has caused a pause in Ukraines offensives outside of Kharkiv and Izyum. Both forces seem to have switched to an economy of force operation to allow forces and resources to be diverted to eastern ukraine.

Russian ‘strategic’ missile strikes continue to be minimally effective, but not successful in shutting off resupply of Ukraine. Ukraine continues its national mobilization of a million men and these will start reaching the battle field in larger numbers over the next month. Equipment supply issues to these activated forces are in part, alleviated by equipment being supplied by the rest of Europe as well as that captured in good shape from the Russians.
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Moldova/Transnistria -

Ukrainian authorities are reportedly strengthening border security between Ukraine and Transnistria. The local Ukrainian border guard detachment announced new restrictions prohibiting the civilian use of drones, night vision equipment, and navigation of small boats in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces are protecting the border and conducting counter-sabotage measures.
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Europe / NATO General -

Lithuania has become the second European country within a month to have electricity supplies from Russia halted.
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Israel -

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyah on Sunday threatened that the terror group will fire rockets at Israel if the Jerusalem Flag March goes ahead as planned next Sunday. “I warn the enemy against committing such crimes and these steps,” he said in a statement.

OBSERVATION - The Flag March is one of the events that triggered the massive rocket attack by Hamas last year. This year could be a repeat given the west bank violence and uprisings on the temple mount during this past Ramadan.

Israel has raised the state of alert on the northern front with Syria and Lebanon - probably due to the assassination of Sayad Khodai. See Iran below on his assassination.
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Iran -

Iran’s president has promised to take revenge after a colonel in the powerful Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) was shot dead in Tehran on Sunday.
Two gunmen on a motorbike opened fire at Sayad Khodai as he sat in a car outside his home, state media reported. Col Khodai was a member of the elite Quds Force, the IRGC’s shadowy overseas operations arm, they said. Iran blamed that assassination on Israel.
Israeli media reported on Monday that Col Khodai was involved in planning attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide, without giving their sources.

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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Both Azerbaijan and Armenia claimed that the other fired toward its forces along the border between the two countries over the weekend.
The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry claimed that on Friday evening Armenian armed forces fired on Azerbaijani forces in the Kalbajar District, adding that Azerbaijani forces took “adequate retaliatory measures.”
The Armenian Defense Ministry denied the claims, calling it misinformation.

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Misc of Note -

MONKEY POX - This may soon warrant its own topic line, but moved it here for now.

Asked whether the monkeypox outbreak is a global health emergency, Dr Maria Van Kerkhove from the WHO, says “it is a containable situation”.
“Transmission is really happening from skin to skin contact, most of the people who have ben identified have more of a mild disease,” she says.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Dr. David Heymann, who formerly headed WHO’s emergencies department, said the leading theory to explain the spread of the disease was sexual transmission among gay and bisexual men at two raves held in Spain and Belgium (with a possible third in the Canary Islands). “We know monkeypox can spread when there is close contact with the lesions of someone who is infected, and it looks like sexual contact has now amplified that transmission,” said Heymann.

Belgium has become the first country to introduce a compulsory 21-day monkeypox quarantine - as 14 countries now confirm outbreaks o f the viral disease and doctors warn of a ‘significant rise’ in UK cases

OBSERVATION - Skin to skin, and try as they might to protect the protected class, the homo/bisexual link to this outbreak is readily apparent.

ONE BIG QUESTION - Who/How did those infections get to these ‘raves’ in the first place?
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Black Swans -

The Government Accountability Office (GA) has warned that Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) lacks the resources needed ahead of what is expected to be a busy hurricane season.

OBSERVATION - So much of our economy is teetering on a razor thin edge, a significant natural disaster could throw much into a tail spin. We just don’t have the reserves necessary, having thrown them to so many other ‘emergencies’. The ‘big one’ on the west coast, or a major series of hurricane strikes for example could knock the legs out from under us.