Had to take a day off. Culling the information can really be a downer. I remember my early posts when life was simpler and the threats less urgent. Seeing all these areas and the potential for affecting us here in America, one cannot help but to be upset.
But to be forewarned is to be forearmed.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro declared his nation would not be signing the World Health Organization’s Pandemic Treaty, which is being pushed by the globalist elites and their puppets in the White House. This comes ahead of the WHO’s plans to discuss implementation of the treaty at the World Health Assembly from May 22-28.
OBSERVATION - While under much dispute, the ‘treaty’ amendments undermine the US by taking over actions now currently directed by the CDC. From wuhan, we’ve all seen how how extra legislative and extra law full their ‘edicts’ were. This would be transferred to the WHO. Many see this as a massive power-grab that eventually will not be limited to pandemic responses. This is an opening play towards the greater goal for the New World Order of usurping national sovereignty and bringing the world under the role of a single government.
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Wuhan virus -
Wuhan lockdowns continue in the city of Shanghai, a crucial part of China’s financial apparatus, is requiring supermarkets and shops to shut down and ordering residents to stay home until at least Tuesday. Reuters reported. that Shanghai’s central Jingan district, which plays a crucial role in the financialization of the Chinese economy, is forcing these new restrictions while also planning to carry out mass covid testing into the first half of the next week.
Exit permits given to residents in the region, which allow people to leave their homes, will be suspended. The local district government did not provide an explanation for the passes’ suspension.
And in the US they just can’t give it up. “We’re just not done yet” with COVID, Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House coronavirus coordinator, told ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday:
“Because, look, we have a lot of infections out there. It’s still quite disruptive. And 300 people a day are still dying of this disease. That’s way too much,” Jha said.
OBSERVATION - Someone need to remind the good Dr. that the science is masks don’t work and neither do the jabs.
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Economy - The United States is facing its worst pilot shortage in recent memory, forcing airlines to cut flights just as travelers are returning after more than two years of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Covid pandemic halted pilot hiring as training and licensing slowed. Airlines handed out early retirement packages to thousands of pilots and other employees aimed to cut labor bills when travel demand cratered during the depths of crisis. Industry experts indicate it could take as much as 5 years to regain all the pilots it needs.
Market analysts are on the watch this week after stocks dipped into bear territory last week. Before the pandemic, the last time the economy experienced a bear market was during the financial crisis more than a decade ago. That bear market lasted for a brutal 517 days.
Top of the list are concerns over rising indicators of an impending recession. Various forecasters are trying to put their thumb on exactly what the chances of a full-blown recession are. A recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private academic group, as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” Some see it as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of this year. If GDP contracts again, it would signal a recession, although a survey of forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia found that the consensus was that GDP will grow by 2.3% annually this quarter.
Overall, last week’s sell-off in the stock market doesn’t mean a recession is coming, but it does show that there is a lack of confidence among investors about the future of the economy and that the markets are essentially pricing in a recession.
“I don’t think you can have a completely benign soft landing of the economy at this point,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America Corp. “We’re either going to have a weak economy or a recession.”
The average U.S. price of regular-grade gasoline spiked 33 cents over the past two weeks to $4.71 per gallon. Industry analyst Trilby Lundberg of the Lundberg Survey said Sunday that the price jump comes amid higher crude oil costs and tight gasoline supplies. The average price at the pump is $1.61 higher than it was one year ago.
The first shipment of 70,000 lbs worth of baby formula from Germany arrived in Indianapolis on Sunday morning. It will not be hitting store shelves, but being directed instead to hospitals, doctors, home health care facilities, and pharmacies in regions “where the needs are most acute,”.
OBSERVATION - The US, allegedly a first world country, has a third world problem with baby food. These aircraft loads are but a drop in the bucket compared to the needs of the country, nothing but PR BS.
Sara Menker, the CEO of agriculture analytics firm Gro Intelligence, told the UN Security Council that the Russia-Ukraine war was not the cause of a food security crisis but “simply added fuel to a fire that was long burning.” She estimated that the world has about 10 weeks of wheat supplies stored.
OBSERVATION - I know I’ve harped about food shortages a lot lately, and i want to avoid unbiased doom porn. However, food shortage warnings I’m seeing now in a way resemble the early warnings about infant formula shortages last year - based on the kinds of supply shortages plaguing other food sector industries. Key point - the biden shutdown of 40% of infant formula production wasn’t on the radar at that stage. This just goes to show how a ‘black swan’ event like the Abbot plant shut down could devastate a sector. If another ‘black swan’ events hits grain production - the dire cries of famine won’t be so tinfoil hat doom porn. Lets keep a close eye on this one - and stock up now.
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Biden / Harris watch -
Biden Sends Message to Kim Jong Un: “Hello. Period”
Only 39% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s performance as president, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Research, dipping from already negative ratings a month earlier.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Apart from some continued vandalism, Antifa actions with proabort protests have been generally underwhelming. Watching today to see if the USSC does issue the final on Roe v Wade and if that triggers a more violent response. Responses from the leak suggest that Antifa violence won’t gain traction if / when that occurs.
H.R. 350, or the “Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act,” passed by a margin of 222-203. The vote was almost entirely along party lines, with every single House Democrat and a lone House Republican— the reprehensible RINO Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois— voting to approve the measure.
The proposal would reportedly create “domestic terrorism offices” within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Department of Justice (DOJ), and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), according to The Hill. The offices would be tasked with “monitoring and scrutinizing potential terror activity,” with a heavy emphasis on terror activity deemed motivated by “white supremacist” or “neo-Nazi” sentiments.
Democrats have predictably framed the bill as a necessary response to the mass shooting perpetrated by an avowed white supremacist at a Buffalo, New York, grocery store last week. The perpetrator, however, characterized himself online as being in the “mild-moderate-authoritarian Left category.”
OBSERVATION - Folks, I see this as another step by the socialists/progressives in control of the govt to execute a crack down on Americans in the near future. My biggest concerns are that they may attempt this in time to disrupt the midterm elections in an attempt to maintain control congress.
The Supreme Court could issue its ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Center as soon as Monday, according to a report from Fox News. The Supreme Court issues opinions on Mondays at 10 a.m. ET., meaning the next possible day the opinion could drop is May 23.
NOTE - as of writing this post, nothing has hit the wires.
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China -
In Japan today, Biden said he’d be willing to use military force to defend Taiwan.
The Taiwanese government expressed regret Sunday that the Biden administration has chosen to exclude it from its new Indo-Pacific economic framework (IPEF), a key regional initiative being launched by President Biden in Japan on Monday.
“As an important economy that plays a crucial role in the global supply chain, Taiwan is definitely qualified for inclusion in the IPEF,” Taiwan’s Central News Agency quoted the island democracy’s foreign ministry as saying in a release.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
Observers had thought NK would pop a nuke or ICBM this weekend. NK may be too distracted in dealing with wuhan to have maintained that option. Still on the table in the near term
A large number of North Koreans including leader Kim Jong Un attended a funeral for a top official, state media reported Monday, as the country maintained the much-disputed claim that its suspected coronavirus outbreak is subsiding.
KCNA said Monday that 167,650 new fever cases had been detected in the past 24-hour period, a notable drop from the peak of about 390,000 reported about one week ago. It said one more person died and that the fever’s fatality rate was 0.002%.
OBSERVATION - These numbers and outlook are likely skewed to make Kim look good
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Japan -
The Chinese ship sailed through the Osumi Strait on Thursday, while the Russian ship sailed through La Pérouse Strait on Wednesday. The People’s Liberation Army Navy’s 41st Chinese Naval Escort Taskforce sailed through the Miyako Strait on Thursday while en route to the Gulf of Aden, according to Japan Ministry of Defense releases. This and other naval activity round Japan are part of an increase presence of Russian and Chinese naval forces in the Japan area.
OBSERVATION - Rather than dissuade Japan from taking a more passive approach in the region, continued tactics like this by Russia and China are having the opposite effect, driving Japan to expand its defensive and OFFENSIVE capabilities.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now ending the third month of the war and proceeding to enter the fourth.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the military is building new bases in its Western Military District. This is in response to “NATO aggression” via strategic bomber flights, maritime patrols, and NATO exercises. “By the end of the year, 12 military units and divisions will be established in the Western Military District,” Shoigu said.(FO)
Economic Impact -
- Over the weekend, Russia’s Gazprom cut off natural gas supplies to Finland.
- The ruble has regained strength due largely to Russia insistence that gas payments be made in it.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers scattered throughout the 10 day forecast
Polish PM arrived in Kyiv and addressed the legislature over the weekend.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Relatively quiet weekend, with few gains.
- Continued but slower gains by Russian forces around Popasna (more below).
- Novoselivka captured by Russians, near Lyman
- Russian troops entered Oskil following Ukraine withdrawal.
But that they have not been able to capture many of the towns or complex terrain around the area just yet, and Ukrainian forces have been able to establish more complex defensive lines in the days since the initial breakthrough, leading to a slowing/fizzling out of the offensive.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces maintained their positions to prevent further Ukrainian advances toward the Russian border and conducted air and artillery strikes north of Kharkiv City. Russian forces are likely reinforcing their grouping north of Kharkiv City to prevent further advances of the Ukrainian counteroffensive toward the Russian border.
Donetsk Oblast NEW -
As the battle has morphed, I’m separating what was once the southern portion of the Kharkiv Front to a new zone. This covers the Izyum to southwest of Popasna areas of combat.
Russian forces focused on offensive operations around Lyman but did not make any confirmed advances. Russian army shelled infrastructure near Lyman, Ozerne and Dibrova settlements,
Russia also launched attacks on the eastern side of Severodonetsk, but were unsuccessful.
Attacks north and west out of Popasna Russian forces had no success at Oleksandropillya, Lypove and Trypillya
The links below depicts some of the most recent activity.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTJ_OdGacAE_cXZ?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTQLCmcWAAAvWiA?format=jpg&name=large
Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian airstrikes and artillery barrages stuck along most of the LOC in this region. Separatist forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic claimed that they took control of Novoselivka, a village in southern Donetsk Oblast.
Crimea Front -
Nothing significant to report. Analysts looking at the possibility that forces are preparing for an offensive to capture the whole of the Kherson Oblast.
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.
Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report.
OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.
BLUF - Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine slowed considerably over the weekend as it appears that Ukraine forces have stiffened their defense and Russian forces are switching to more conventional units following the breakthrough attacks by VDV and mercenaries.
Things will continue to be dynamic in eastern Ukraine. I expect that Russia will continue to claw more territory away from Ukraine, but at an increasing cost of men and equipment. If one looks at the larger map, the Popasna/Severodonetsk pocket is pretty small - far, far smaller than the Russian gains in the initial phase of the war, yet having the highest concentration of forces and the highest priority of effort.
The Russian Popasna/Severodonetsk effort has caused a pause in Ukraines offensives outside of Kharkiv and Izyum. Both forces seem to have switched to an economy of force operation to allow forces and resources to be diverted to eastern ukraine.
Russian ‘strategic’ missile strikes continue to be minimally effective, but not successful in shutting off resupply of Ukraine. Ukraine continues its national mobilization of a million men and these will start reaching the battle field in larger numbers over the next month. Equipment supply issues to these activated forces are in part, alleviated by equipment being supplied by the rest of Europe as well as that captured in good shape from the Russians.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Ukrainian authorities are reportedly strengthening border security between Ukraine and Transnistria. The local Ukrainian border guard detachment announced new restrictions prohibiting the civilian use of drones, night vision equipment, and navigation of small boats in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces are protecting the border and conducting counter-sabotage measures.
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Europe / NATO General -
Lithuania has become the second European country within a month to have electricity supplies from Russia halted.
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Israel -
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyah on Sunday threatened that the terror group will fire rockets at Israel if the Jerusalem Flag March goes ahead as planned next Sunday. “I warn the enemy against committing such crimes and these steps,” he said in a statement.
OBSERVATION - The Flag March is one of the events that triggered the massive rocket attack by Hamas last year. This year could be a repeat given the west bank violence and uprisings on the temple mount during this past Ramadan.
Israel has raised the state of alert on the northern front with Syria and Lebanon - probably due to the assassination of Sayad Khodai. See Iran below on his assassination.
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Iran -
Iran’s president has promised to take revenge after a colonel in the powerful Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) was shot dead in Tehran on Sunday.
Two gunmen on a motorbike opened fire at Sayad Khodai as he sat in a car outside his home, state media reported. Col Khodai was a member of the elite Quds Force, the IRGC’s shadowy overseas operations arm, they said. Iran blamed that assassination on Israel.
Israeli media reported on Monday that Col Khodai was involved in planning attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide, without giving their sources.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Both Azerbaijan and Armenia claimed that the other fired toward its forces along the border between the two countries over the weekend.
The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry claimed that on Friday evening Armenian armed forces fired on Azerbaijani forces in the Kalbajar District, adding that Azerbaijani forces took “adequate retaliatory measures.”
The Armenian Defense Ministry denied the claims, calling it misinformation.
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Misc of Note -
MONKEY POX - This may soon warrant its own topic line, but moved it here for now.
Asked whether the monkeypox outbreak is a global health emergency, Dr Maria Van Kerkhove from the WHO, says “it is a containable situation”.
“Transmission is really happening from skin to skin contact, most of the people who have ben identified have more of a mild disease,” she says.
In an interview with The Associated Press, Dr. David Heymann, who formerly headed WHO’s emergencies department, said the leading theory to explain the spread of the disease was sexual transmission among gay and bisexual men at two raves held in Spain and Belgium (with a possible third in the Canary Islands). “We know monkeypox can spread when there is close contact with the lesions of someone who is infected, and it looks like sexual contact has now amplified that transmission,” said Heymann.
Belgium has become the first country to introduce a compulsory 21-day monkeypox quarantine - as 14 countries now confirm outbreaks o f the viral disease and doctors warn of a ‘significant rise’ in UK cases
OBSERVATION - Skin to skin, and try as they might to protect the protected class, the homo/bisexual link to this outbreak is readily apparent.
ONE BIG QUESTION - Who/How did those infections get to these ‘raves’ in the first place?
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Black Swans -
The Government Accountability Office (GA) has warned that Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) lacks the resources needed ahead of what is expected to be a busy hurricane season.
OBSERVATION - So much of our economy is teetering on a razor thin edge, a significant natural disaster could throw much into a tail spin. We just don’t have the reserves necessary, having thrown them to so many other ‘emergencies’. The ‘big one’ on the west coast, or a major series of hurricane strikes for example could knock the legs out from under us.
But to be forewarned is to be forearmed.
I’m one of many, I’m sure, who appreciates your hard work. I thank you for your current and previous service.
Regards,
Mel
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Globalism / Great Reset -
More and more countries are beginning to stop food exports in the face of shortages in their own countries. The most recent example is Malaysia’s Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob said the South East Asian country will stop exporting as many as 3.6m chickens every month “until domestic prices and production stabilize”. “The government’s priority is our own people,” he said in a statement.
Some political ‘analysts’ are calling this “food nationalism” and are trying to make the case that they are being selfish looking out for the concerns and need of their own people rather than be good global citizens.
OBSERVATION - Looking after one’s citizens needs is a very legitimate purpose of government. GGR doesn’t recognize this function - under its socialistic doctrines all must be miserable.
Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum (WEF), on Monday greeted members of the global elites gathered in Davos, Switzerland, with the salute: “Political, economic, social and ecological dimensions of every issue today are intertwined… the future is not just happening, the future is built by us, by a powerful community as you here in this room. We have the means to improve the state of the world,. . . “ Economics along with climate change and preserving nature were key mentions in his speech.
Schwab went on to outline what he viewed as two conditions for such an improvement to occur. The first condition relied on his vision of global leaders as “stakeholders” of the future. The second condition, Schwab said, was collaboration within the “community” of global leaders.
OBSERVATION - Much on exploiting current global crises and the powers that be assembled in Davos to coordinate their actions and responses to further the agenda.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla may have forgotten he was on camera this week, as he dazzled the audience at the World Economic Forum in Davos with fantasies of ingestible computer chips that signal authorities when a drug has been digested.
“It is a, basically biological chip that is in the tablet. And once we take the tablet and dissolves into the stomach, sends a signal that you took the table. So imagine the applications of that – the compliance. The insurance companies know that the medicines patients should take, they take them.”
OBSERVATION - The level os control of one’s personal lives they desire continues to be astounding.
A guest of the World Economic Forum’s annual summit in Davos called for a “recalibration” of freedom of speech to combat “online violence” and “increasing polarization.”
“We are finding ourselves in a place where we have increasing polarization everywhere and everything feels binary when it doesn’t need to be,” Australia’s “eSafety Commissioner” Julie Inman Grant said on Monday. “So, I think we’re going to have to think about a recalibration of a whole range of human rights that are playing out online, from freedom of speech to the freedom to be free from online violence.”
OBSERVATION - The GGR et al MUST police free speech, it is the only way they can control the sheeple. Cannot allow competing narratives interfering with their goals.
SPEAKING OF FREE SPEECH - Monday, Nina Jankowicz (Mary Poppins of Disinformation) would have us believe that she had hoped to spend her time as chief of the Disinformation Governance Board, which was part of the Department of Homeland Security, countering alleged disinformation that had “become entrenched in domestic politics.” Now, wait a minute. On May 1, CNN’s Dana Bash asked Mayorkas, “Will American citizens be monitored?” Mayorkas’ answer was unequivocal and reassuring: “No. The board does not have any operational authority or capability. What it will do is gather together best practices in addressing the threat of disinformation from foreign state adversaries from the cartels and disseminate those best practices to the operators that have been executing in addressing this threat for years.”
OBSERVATION - The disinformation “lie” that Americans are not being targeted.
David Beasley, executive director of the United Nations’ World Food Programme said during a WEF panel discussion that Russia’s failure to reopen Ukraine’s ports is in effect a “declaration of war” on the globe’s food security. He said this also threatens to unleash an unprecedented migrant crisis.
OBSERVATION- I’m becoming more and more convinced that a food ‘shortage’ manipulation is coming before the end of the year as another mechanism to drive so called emergency declarations that strip rights from individuals and bring them more under the control of government and in turn the GGR/WEF. Control the food, control the mass goes the adage.
THERE’S MORE FOOD RELATED - The Economist forecasted in a dire gloom and doom frontpage story last week entitled, The coming food catastrophe, “The high cost of staple foods has already raised the number of people who cannot be sure of getting enough to eat by 440m, to 1.6bn. Nearly 250m are on the brink of famine. If, as is likely, the war drags on and supplies from Russia and Ukraine are limited, hundreds of millions more people could fall into poverty. Political unrest will spread, children will be stunted, and people will starve.”
While covering the World Economic Forum’s annual summit in Davos, Switzerland, on Monday journalist Jack Posobiec was given a message in no uncertain terms — “you are not welcome here, you are not one of us.” Posobiec, a former Navy intelligence officer turned conservative journalist, was detained and thoroughly searched along with his entire film crew. The detention took place while the film crew was trying to have dinner and recharge at a local restaurant.
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Economy -
Americans are becoming less supportive of punishing Russia for launching its invasion of Ukraine if it comes at the expense of the U.S. economy, a sign of rising anxiety over inflation and other challenges, according to a new poll. While broad support for U.S. sanctions has not faltered, the balance of opinion on prioritizing sanctions over the economy has shifted, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
Kalifornia Governor Newsom is pushing for more water conservation efforts and warning that the government could force mandatory water limitations across California if efforts don’t get better over the coming months. “Every water agency across the state needs to take more aggressive actions to communicate about the drought emergency and implement conservation measures,” Newsom said in a statement.
OBSERVATION - Looking deeper, Kalifornia water supplies (both state and federal) for agriculture remain severely cut, forcing thousands of acres to sit idle. The central valley is a huge food producer and loss of those crops will hit us in the pocket book..
A recent set of reports from the Institute for Energy Research digs into the supply and demand figures for liquid fuels in the coming months and the news is not encouraging. The title of the report comes in the form of a worrisome question. Will there be enough diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline this summer?
Refiners are planning to spend the summer increasing jet fuel and diesel production instead of gasoline because refining oil into diesel or jet fuel is currently more profitable than making gasoline despite those fuels historically being the least profitable parts of the barrel. Currently, the profit margin on distillates is nearly $60 a barrel, while the margin to make gasoline is $34. As a result, it is unclear what the availability or price of gasoline will be this summer as Americans increase gasoline demand by taking vacations as school lets out. Some are projecting the average price of gas to go over $6/gallon later this summer.
OBSERVATION - We currently have 10 percent fewer refineries for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel than we had in 2016. Some shut down for ‘green’ biofuel conversion, others just shut down due to burdensome regulations. To make matter worse, refinery capacity dropped by 4.5 percent between 2020 and 2021 to 17.7 million barrels per day. That’s the lowest level seen since 2013. biden administration hostility towards the oil industry will not bring refineries back on line any time soon. In fact, biden has stated the goal is to force prices so high people will want to switch to the ‘green’ economy. Biden: “When it comes to the gas prices, we’re going through an INCREDIBLE transition”
BTW - The cost of diesel fuel has increased 75 percent over the past year. The national average for diesel fuel is $5.61 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association’s (AAA) May 16 report. In the less than two years since I returned to the American Redoubt, diesel prices have more than doubled. These prices will all show up soon in your grocery and other products you buy.
AND THERE’S MORE FUEL RELATED - The Biden administration is in talks to tap to into a federal diesel reserve to address energy shortfalls, an official with knowledge of the matter confirmed to The Hill Monday.
An interagency team of officials has been monitoring East Coast diesel supplies and developing policy recommendations to address them, the official said.
“The team has prepared emergency declarations for President authorize release from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve if conditions deteriorate,” they added. “We would call this a bridge to deal with short term supply shortfalls.”
OBSERVATION - This will weaken our ability to fight a war or deal with a real crisis - a deliberate move to weaken the country by biden, just like drawing down the strategic reserve to less than 50% capacity.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Biden’s Justice Dept has appointed a new federal immigration judge who served on the board of directors of a George Soros-funded far-left group (Detention Watch Network) whose stated goal is to defund US law & border enforcement. Judge Romy Lerner
Detention Watch Network receives funding from Soros’ Open Society Foundations. The far-left group calls for the defunding of US law & border enforcement. Newly appointed immigration judge Romy Lerner was one of the main contacts on its nonprofit filing.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
The FBI has released a report on “active shooter incidents” in 2021. The report is interesting, in part because it documents a sharp rise in such incidents after Joe Biden’s inauguration. One possible reason is the covid shutdowns, which are known to have contributed to mental health issues. Another, more direct reason, is the cumulative impact of Soros-backed DA’s who are not prosecuting criminals and the criminals are getting the idea that they can act without consequences. The administration is supporting this band of lawlessness.
Going back to the infamous letter and conspiracy by the National School Boards Association (NSBA) to have parents investigated as domestic terrorists, just released demands from the NSBA to the White House included calling for the deployment of the Army National Guard and the military police to monitor school board meetings, according to an early draft letter the organization’s independent review released Friday.
In contrast to the final version, the draft of the NSBA letter said, “We ask that the Army National Guard and its Military Police be deployed to certain school districts and related events where students and school personnel have been subjected to acts and threats of violence.”
OBSERVATION - Many local school boards have left this ‘association’ due to the final letter. The contents of the now released draft should wake others up and send them out the door as well.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments
The United States military and other Biden administration officials are considering sending special forces troops to Ukraine to guard the recently reopened U.S. embassy in Kyiv as the Russian invasion continues.
According to U.S. officials, President Joe Biden has not been approached about the plans yet, but if they are approved, the special forces troops would only serve as defense and security of the embassy, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.
OBSERVATION - Normally, a Marine contingent provides security, however reports suggest that the US considers the tactical situation is more challenging than the Marines can handle, hence the switch to the Special Forces.
US has more than 102,000 troops in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: top US military official. Prewar it was about 85k troops.
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China -
Another day, another biden white house walk back. The White House was quick to put out a statement cleaning up Biden’s comments regarding willingness to go to war with China over Taiwan:
After Biden says “yes” the US is willing to get involved militarily in Taiwan, a WH official says “As the President said, our policy has not changed. He reiterated our One China Policy and our commitment to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. He also reiterated our commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide Taiwan with the military means to defend itself.”
Chinese government officials are easing lockdowns in the port city of Shanghai, however business leaders are complaining about a labor shortage to work at various transportation centers.
OBSERVATION - Expect renewed shipping delays as this gets sorted out again. There are currently three-week wait times at many major ports in North America.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
South Korea scrambled air defense fighters as four Chinese and four Russian combat aircraft conducted a joint air patrol operation through its air defense identification zone. The flight entered via the Sea of Japan on the east side of the Korean peninsula but did not penetrate South Korea’s territorial airspace. The aircraft were a mix of long-range bombers and fighters. Neither Russia nor China recognizes the South Korean ADIZ.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia has learned from some of its errors and now appears to be gaining a slight advantage in the fight in eastern Ukraine.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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RUMINT -
Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kirill Budanov said Russian President Putin survived an assassination attempt at the beginning of the war. “There were attacks on Putin…This is nonpublic information. Absolutely unsuccessful attempt, but it really took place… That was about 2 months ago,”
Logistics -
- Unconfirmed reports from the Ukrainian General Staff that is reporting that Russian forces are withdrawing old T-62 tanks from storage to form new BTGs.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- In the first three months of its “special military operation,” Russia has likely suffered a similar death toll to that experienced by the Soviet Union during its entire nine-year war in Afghanistan, the British Defense Ministry said in its latest assessment of the war in Ukraine. About 15,000 Russians died in the Afghan war that ended in 1989.
- Unconfirmed - Colonel Alexey Smirnov, the commander of Russian Army’s 98th Airborne Division, killed in Ukraine.
- Unidentified assailants continued attacks against military recruitment offices in Russia
Economic Impact -
- Starbucks will exit Russia after 15 years, closing 130 licensed cafes
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers increasing throughout the 10 day forecast
RUMINT -
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia has increased the intensity of its operations in the Donbas as it seeks to encircle Severodonetsk, Lyschansk, and Rubizhne. It achieved some more success on the ground and at present the northern and southern axes of this operation are separated by approximately 25 km of Ukrainian-held territory. The town of Lyman (north of Severodonetsk) came under withering artillery bombardment overnight as well as Russian attempts to capture that city as well.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian army shelled Bilopillya of Sumy region
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces conducted a counter attack on the northern outskirts of Ternova town in Kharkiv region, goal is to prevent Ukrainian forces from advancing towards Vovchansk and critical supply routes.
Ukraine intelligence is noting the redeployment of DNR and LNR troops away from their previous positions conducting frontal assaults in eastern Ukraine to northern Kharkiv to hold defensive lines against the Ukrainian counteroffensive indicates Russia’s prioritization of slowing the Ukrainian counteroffensive, at the cost of reinforcing Russian offensive operations in the east.
Donetsk Oblast NEW -
Fluid tactical situation
Russian forces intensified air and artillery strikes throughout southeastern Ukraine.
Heavy fighting all around the Sieverodonetsk pocket. Lyman hit with intense artillery barrages overnight. Lyman remains one of the only Ukrainian held area on the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets River, along with Severodonetsk. Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces have gained a foot hold in the northern part of Lyman.
The towns of Toshkivka and Ustynivka outside of Sieverodonetsk are facing attacks.
Attacks out of Izyum continue to be stalled. Russia attempted an unsuccessful ground assault on Dovhenke, about 20 km southeast of Izyum.
Russia continues to push its successes after punching through Ukrainian defenses around Popasna, specifically around Toshkivka, Komyshuvakha, Nyrkove, Vasylivka, Nova Kamyanka, and Myronivsky, in a likely attempt to push westward toward Bakhmut.
The following link provides some idea of the current push by Russia
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTZvwKuXoAAxkho?format=jpg&name=large
Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian forces made gains near the Donetsk-Luhansk administrative border and took control of Mironovsky, southeast of Bakhmut. The capture of Mironovsky will enable further attempts to drive toward Bakhmut from both the south and west.
Crimea Front -
Nothing significant to report. Analysts looking at the possibility that forces are preparing for an offensive to capture the whole of the Kherson Oblast.
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.
Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report.
OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.
BLUF - The Russians will continue efforts to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk at least from the south, possibly by focusing on cutting off the last highway connecting Severodonetsk-Lysychansk with the rest of Ukraine. Combat area is increasingly urban and an environment that Russia has done poorly fighting in so far.
The Russia effort is focusing on gaining control of the Luhansk Oblast portion of the Donbas region. As the following link depicts, the Ukraine pocket is very small and the Russia effort to capture this small pocket has been intense.
If Russia is able to control this pocket, putin/Russia could claim a modicum of ‘victory’. However, if the reports of Russia taking T-62 tanks out of mothballs are accurate, Russia is desperate to maintain the war effort. This is not outrageous as there have been confirmed reports of BMP-1s showing up in Russian units. Both of these pieces of armor are grossly out of date and vastly under equipped for modern battlefield conditions.
Russian progress has occurred in surges but in small steps, suggesting that they are paying close attention not to our run their logistics. They have also increased the intensity of artillery and air support, both indicating an improvement of coordination between the elements and giving the ground forces better protection to move forward. Already, reports of successful Ukraine strikes on Russian logistics are increasing.
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Belarus -
Russia has deployed Iskander missiles in Brest region of Belarus, 50kms to the border of Ukraine and essentially right on the border with Poland.
OBSERVATION - These rockets could serve to target Ukrainan supply chains coming in from Poland as well as Poland itself.
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Europe / NATO General -
Lithuania confirms it will withdraw its ambassador from Russia on June 1 and not appoint a new one.
Erdogan says Turkey - Greece partnership council meeting will no longer take place. “I don’t think US will make its decision on F-16s [purchase for Turkey] by looking at what Mitsotakis would say”
OBSERVATION - Turkey is close to burning a lot of bridges with NATO as Erdogan is straying very close to splitting off from the alliance.
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Israel -
The Biden administration secretly mediates between Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to achieve an agreement that will complete the transfer of the islands of Tiran and the Red Sea to Saudi sovereignty and include a security agreement of some kind if the Saudis are giving control of the strait.
From reportedly Gaza sources, terror groups are preparing for an attack on Israel for next week’s controversial flag march, as all regional actors on high alert; ‘We will confront and never allow harm to Al Aqsa,’ Hamas official says. Sources in Gaza warned Israel the Palestinian enclave’s terrorist groups are preparing for possible confrontations, including the launching of rocket fire, if Israel’s nationalist flag parade goes through next Sunday. “Hamas’ military wing is on high alert and ready to carry out the leadership’s orders for a possible confrontation with Israel if the flag parade, expected on the 29th of the month [Sunday], moves very close to the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Western Wall plaza,” a source in the Gaza Strip said on Monday.
The Jerusalem Day celebrations, marking Israel’s victory during the 1967 Six-Day War and the reunification of East and West Jerusalem, include a parade in which tens of thousands of Israelis march with flags through the city’s center and then through the Old City while entering it through the Damascus Gate.
OBSERVATION - Remember, this flag march is what kicked off Hama’s missile war last year.
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Iran -
Iran, which is again suffering from widespread protests against the religious dictatorship that has wrecked the economy before economic sanctions became a factor. The current demonstrations began three weeks ago and the government sought to stop them by just arresting protest leaders, rather than using IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) gunfire to kill protesters until the protests stopped. The government has made lethal responses to demonstrations before and, while those temporarily halted public protests, they increased the number of Iranians determined to overthrow the religious leaders who promised democracy after a popular uprising overthrew the monarchy in 1979. The protestors are not only demanding an end to the inflation and frequent increases in food prices, but also the religious dictatorship. Apparently senior religious leaders fear that using force this time might trigger a major nationwide uprising to overthrow the government. The secret IRGC opinion surveys show that anti-government sentiment has been climbing for years and the number of “unstable (very angry) Iranians” has reached dangerous levels. (Strategypage)
OBSERVATION - Continuing to brew under the surface, the Iranian citizenry isn’t happy. Food price increases and shortages are just the latest. Though much of Irans’s economic woes have been due to sanctions, the mullahs have made it worse by diverting funds to their proxy fighters, missile/arms programs and nuclear program - which do not benefit the general Iranian.
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Saudi Arabia -
See Israel above.
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Syria -
Erdogan says a new Turkish military operation will soon begin to establish a safe zone 30km deep in Northern Syria where Turkey has no control. He means remaining YPG / SDF controlled areas.
The president of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), Ilham Ahmad, demands the US and Russia stop the Turkish attacks on NE Syria
Link to map showing control of Syria -
https://syria.liveuamap.com/pics/2022/05/23/22446312_0.jpg
OBSERVATION - Turkey started this ‘safe zone’ operation several years ago. As the link shows, the Kurds control a large chunk of Northeast Syria (as well as much of northern Iraq). So the question is how much of an operation is he willing to commit to? BTW, Turkey has invaded northern Iraq of recent going after Kurds there as well.
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Turkey -
High-level delegations from Sweden and Finland are due to arrive in Turkey on Tuesday evening for talks with the foreign ministry about their applications to join Nato, the NTV news channel reports. The visit follows Turkey’s objection to the two countries joining Nato.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan previously said neither countries should bother visiting to try to convince Turkey of their bids.
SEE ALSO - Europe / NATO General above.
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Misc of Note -
MONKEY POX -
The World Health Organization does not have evidence that the monkeypox virus has mutated, a senior executive at the U.N. agency said on Monday, noting the infectious disease that is endemic in west and central Africa has tended not to change.
OBSERVATION - Monkey Pox is a nothing burger and hasn’t spread outside the gay/bisexual community from which the current flap has developed. Stick a fork in it, its dead and unless something dramatic happens I’m not looking at commenting further.
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