Replies

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Still looking for additional confirmation on this but noting this for future watch anyway. Iran reportedly is set to be the first country to roll out a food rationing scheme (or ‘limited subsidy’) based on new biometric IDs.

OBSERVATION - Could be considered to be a “food passport” like the wuhan passport. Iran is currently facing unrest over shortages and high costs of food. May be an over reaction to digital ‘credits’ - SEE Iran below.

Amazon’s founder and executive chairman announced a $10 billion Bezos Earth Fund. The billions will be spent by the Washington Post’s owner to save the planet from people.
The Bezos Earth Fund calls for “a great reset that will lead us all toward a more sustainable, prosperous future.” The term, “great reset” became highly controversial after its embrace by the World Economic Forum and the Bezos Earth Fund is touted by the WEF.
The Bezos Earth Fund’s version of the Great Reset argues that the “economy in 2030 must be dramatically different from what it is today” and insists that “radical changes will be needed” that will encompass “some 40 to 60 shifts”.

OBSERVATION - Of course the mega rich elites exempt themselves. . . . .
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Wuhan virus -

A peer-reviewed paper published by the Journal of the American Medical Association concluded that immunity against the omicron coronavirus variant fades rapidly after a second and third dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The proportion of antibodies dropped from 76% four weeks after the second shot to 19% at weeks 12 to 14. The antibodies dropped even faster after the third dose, the booster shot. Between the third and eighth week, antibodies fell 5.4-fold for omicron.

OBSERVATION - This largely confirms what other studies have pointed out
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Economy -

JPMorgan’s commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva warns that US retail gasoline prices could surge another 37% by August to a $6.20/gal national average.

Speaking of gasoline, gas stations in the state of Washington are reportedly reprogramming pumps to include double-digit numbers in “price per gallon” as the current trend could put prices over $10.00.
At the 76 Gas Station in Auburn, Washington located at 1725 Auburn Way North, gas pumps have been reprogrammed to make room for double-digit pricing. In March, they still had single-digit programming.
A Spokesperson at 76 confirmed to The Post Millennial that the gas pumps were reprogrammed to allocate for double-digit pricing. Although not confirming that they are expecting prices to increase up to $10.00 or more, the current trend suggests the possibility.

OBSERVATION - Reports are that this is occurring elsewhere.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday pledged that the U.S. central bank would ratchet interest rates as high as needed to kill a surge in inflation that he said threatened the foundation of the economy.
“What we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way and we’re going to keep pushing until we see that,” Powell said at a Wall Street Journal event. “If we don’t see that, we will have to consider moving more aggressively” to tighten financial conditions. The Fed has raised its benchmark policy rate by three-quarters of a percentage point this year, and is on track to increase it again in half-percentage-point increments at its next two meetings in June and July.

OBSERVATION - This will pop the housing bubble, creating another crisis of affordable home shortages and unaffordable loans. However, this will also savage other credit related items - credit cards rates will skyrocket to crazy levels. And it will cause further hurt to the economy, slowing it down and raising unemployment. Note the convergence factor - July - given lag time worst could hit early fall.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey Index was expected to increase by 16.5% in May, however data came in at a surprising level of negative 11.6%. The change represents a 36.2% fall from last month and is second only to the index published in April of 2020 when Covid lockdowns were widespread in the U.S. This is the second-largest surprise ever recorded for the survey. The Manufacturing Index serves as a preliminary measure for what we might expect in the months to come. The majority of the slowdown is due to falling new orders, higher inventories, and increased freight times that are much worse than anticipated. (FO)

News that the biden admin has been aware of baby formula shortage issues for a considerably long time. From an interview with CNN
CNN: “You are satisfied with the government’s response throughout [the baby formula shortage]?”
HHS Sec. Xavier Becerra: “FDA has kept me apprised of this from LAST YEAR. We have been moving as quickly as we can”

OBSERVATION - Administration has moved from sheer incompetence to deliberate malfeasance IMHO.

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Invasion of Illegals -

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) released nearly 118,000 border crossers and illegal aliens into American communities in the month of April. The figure comes after Biden’s DHS released more than 80,000 border crossers and illegal aliens into the United States interior in March.
Neither of these figures include the hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens who successfully entered the U.S., undetected by Border Patrol, or the tens of thousands of Unaccompanied Alien Children (UACs) the federal government resettles across various American communities every month.

National Border Patrol Council President Brandon Judd said Tuesday that once Title 42 goes away, the Border Patrol will be releasing about 230,000 people into the U.S. next month.
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Biden / Harris watch -

“The Real President Is Whoever Controls The Teleprompter” - Musk
OUCH!
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POLITICAL FRONT -

Following the shooting in Buffalo, New York, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) vowed to pursue new gun control legislation. “[T]he House will continue to consider additional measures to strengthen efforts to combat domestic terrorism. We must never stop fighting to end the bloodshed — because enough is enough.”

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Domestic Terror -
Now that the smoke has cleared, more info on the CA shootings. David Chou, the mass shooter who killed one and wounded five Taiwanese-Americans, was working as a political operative for a Chinese front organization conducting information operations here in the U.S. Chou was a key leader in the National Association for China’s Peaceful Unification, a Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-controlled influence operation advocating Taiwan’s forced repatriation with China.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments

The Navy activated a new Unmanned Surface Vessel Division (USVDIV) on Monday. USVDIV is tasked with accelerating and managing the delivery of credible and reliable unmanned systems to integrate with the Pacific Fleet’s manned naval surface combatants.

Various OSINT observers are noting that there appears to be a massive Sealift Operation currently underway from the Eastern United States involving almost all USNS Ships in the Atlantic, including the USNS Soderman one of the Navy’s RORO Ships who left the Sunny Point Naval Yard yesterday heading likely toward Europe. It is believed that they are carrying heavier equipment and materials for the Ukraine war support effort.

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Cyber Warfare -

According to an alert from the FBI and the Departments of State and Treasury, North Korean government hackers may be using fake credentials to gain employment with U.S. companies as remote IT workers. The alert stated that these “IT workers” might use their privileged access to corporate networks to conduct cyber attacks. (FO)
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China -

Indian media reports China is building a ‘bigger, broader’ bridge at Pangong Tso, along the Line of Actual Control with the Chinese. It says the bridge can carry armored columns. 1st bridge was built in April, used as a service bridge to build the 2nd.

OBSERVATION - China continues to improve infrastructure on its controlled areas of the LOC. This would facilitate any future conflict with India. These areas are also important to China in that they give better access to Mongolia and Tibet.

USDA statistics pointing to what he calls China’s “hoarding” of key commodities. By mid-2022, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of its rice, and 51% of its wheat, according to USDA predictions.
OBSERVATION - China plays the long game and started these substantial grain purchases over a year ago when its internal crop productions were hit by floods.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korea appears to be preparing for an ICBM test within the next 48 to 96 hours (by this weekend), according to U.S. officials. Could be timed for President Biden will arrive in South Korea on Friday and hold talks with South Korean counterparts before visiting Japan a few days later.

On a more extreme end, South Korean officials assessed that the nuclear test could be timed to coincide with a scheduled presidential summit as well

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russia in response to the expulsion of 41 employees of Russian diplomatic institutions from France expels 34 employees of French diplomatic institutions

Reports that Russia has scraped up enough night vision devices to start substantial night ops in Donbas.

Russian media is discussing a “Donetsk Nuremberg” for Azov Battalion fighters from Mariupol.

U.S. House Reps Joe Wilson (R-SC) and Ted Lieu (D-CA) introduced a bill to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terror for its actions in Ukraine and around the world.

Economic Impact -
- Italian energy giant Eni opens ruble and euro accounts to pay for Russian gas. There are as many as 6 other entities that have done the same to get around the EU imposed embargoes.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers predominant in the 10 day forecast, indicating that off road conditions will get progressively worse.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
A lot of action in SE Ukraine with limited gains by Russia. Meanwhile Ukraine continues to press its counter offensive to the northeast and east of Kharkiv.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Unconfirmed reports that there is a heavy battle near Seredyna-Buda in Sumy region, border breakthrough attempt by Russian troops. There are fires along border line as result of shelling. Artillery attacks have been confirmed by the Ukrainian military, but any ground attacks have not.

Russian army shelled villages of Sumy region with MLRS GRAD and artillery, Ukrainian army responded to the sources of fire

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Once again, a fluid tactical situation .

Ukrainian forces continued to push the remaining Russian forces northeast of Kharkiv City. Increasing resistance has been encountered near Vovchansk, a border settlement approximately 90 km northeast of Kharkiv City. Vovchansk controls a major supply line coming south from Belgorod to southeastern Ukraine (and more specifically - Izyum).

Russian troops shelled Kharkiv overnight along Russian Su-35 jets conducted airstrikes in Bakhmut, Klynove, Soledar and Vovchoyarivka.

Reports that Russia may be closing in on Lyman and the tactical situation may be rapidly deteriorating for Ukrainian troops. Yesterday, Russia reportedly captured Novoselivka to the NW and may have captured Yarova. If these reports are confirmed, Lyman is now surrounded on three sides with only destroyed bridges over the Donets on the 4th side. However, battles have been see-saw affairs, so any action is not final at this stage.

Russia also trying to push out from Popasna to the north and southwest in order to reach the Bahmut-Lysychansk highway.

Most of the Russian activity appears to be coordinated to encircle and capture Severodonetsk. As the territorial goals of the Donbas campaign have gotten increasingly smaller since its start, the battle for Severodonetsk has taken a larger part of the Russia domestic media coverage, some feel to deflect from consistent combat failures. The Severodonetsk pocket is a very small area in eastern Ukraine and the increased Russian effort over the past three weeks to gain control over it indicates the Russian forces are still heavily degraded and tactical operations still plagued with the standard problems.

Ukraine offensive against the Izyum salient continues to develop.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Maripol has “officially” been captured by Russia.

2 missile strikes against Dnipro city this morning, one missile was shot down, but debris damaged a house. Another missile targeted and destroyed transport infrastructure object

Russian forces also conducted a series of unsuccessful ground assaults in western Donetsk Oblast. One assault unsuccessfully attempted to seize a segment of the N20 highway to Slovyansk east of Avdiivka while another failed to reach the N15 highway to Zaporizhia.

Crimea Front -
No significant actions as Russia appears to continue dig in defensively.

Major action focused on Russian missile and air attacks on Ukraine infrastructure. Russian forces continued to launch rocket- and airstrikes on Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts in an effort to disrupt transportation infrastructure in the region. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces launched two cruise missiles at a bridge over the Dniester estuary on May 17. The bridge connects Odesa Oblast with the highway to Romania and has reportedly been damaged and out of operation for over two weeks. Russian forces likely seek to destroy the bridge beyond the possibility of repair to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines from Romania. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command also reported that Russian forces struck maritime infrastructure 70 km southwest of Mykolaiv Oblast.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Explosions were reported in Belgorod, Russia overnight.

OUTLOOK -
Dynamics of the situation can change quickly. I’m at about a 24 hour lag on much of it. Russia will make some gains one day, the next Ukraine.

BLUF - Russia will push hard in eastern Ukraine to try to come up with some sort of ‘victory’ to claim. Capture of the Severodonetsk pocket is high on their list. Ukraine will continue to push east and north out of Kharkiv to threaten Russian supply lines to Izyum and the south along with developing its offensive into the Izyum salient.

Russia is pressuring far eastern Ukrainian cities of Severodonetsk and Lyman, but its gains are costly. Russia appears to be moving slowly in order not to over ever extend its supply chain, and is having success. However, it still runs frontal attacks against Ukraine positions and suffers the hurt.

Ukraine has to balance its offensive and defensive operations so it doesn’t get caught overextended. This is not the time for them to get cocky as Russia is improving in some areas. However, offensive actions are in many cases the best defense and the current Kharkiv offensive and the developing Izyum attacks are good moves strategically. They may be forced to trade some territory in the southeast in order to accomplish the tasks.

The coastal areas east of Odesa will see Russian efforts to consolidate. It will take time but if Russia can restore some operations of the Maripol port facilities, Russian supply to the war effort will be enhanced, perhaps enough to break the stalemate on the southern margin of the Donbas offensive.

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Europe / NATO General -

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Finland and Sweden formally applied to join the alliance.
Turkey has essentially stalled any of the initial talks on the addition.

NATO is conducting vigilance activity NEPTUNE SHIELD 2022 (NESH22), which integrates high-end maritime expeditionary strike capabilities of Sea, Air and Land assets. The activities will take place in the Baltic, Adriatic and Mediterranean Seas, from 17-31 May.
During NESH 22, we will conduct the handover of command and control of the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group (CSG) and the Combined Task Force 61/2, which includes the USS Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), and the 22d Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) from SIXTHFLT to STRIKFORNATO and the wider Alliance.

IN RELATED - Finland’s Navy kicked off a large exercise highlighting its ability to defend maritime assets. The exercise includes maritime traffic protection, situational awareness drills, littoral combat tasks, and live at-sea and coastal fire missions. Finland’s Defense Forces are also displaying their ability to operate alongside NATO members’ militaries before their application.
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Israel -

The US and Israeli Air Forces will take part in a joint exercise simulating an attack on Iran, according to news reports. The simulated attack on Iran will be held as part of the ‘Chariots of Fire’ military exercise, one of the longest such exercises in the history of the IDF. The exercise will take place in two weeks, when many Israeli fighter jets will simulate an attack in Iran, and the US Air Force will refuel the Israeli aircraft.

OBSERVATION - Israeli lack of refueling aircraft is one of the biggest hinderances to striking Iran with something other than missiles. Israel has requested more tankers, US has been stalling. This exercise becomes even more important given that Iran is installing, newer, more advanced centrifuges, which could allow purification of uranium to the 90+ % threshold in quantities needed for a nuclear weapon to occur in a matter of weeks.

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Iran -

See Globalism / Great Reset above

Iranian leadership faces pressure from its own people, who have been protesting in response to a floundering economy. The protests began last week when the government slashed food subsidies on eggs, milk, chicken, and cooking oil leading to price rises of some 300%. Since then, protests have spread to many areas of the country and according to observers have taken on a much more anti-government current.

The Iranian government said it will offer digital coupons that will allow citizens to access a limited amount of bread at subsidized prices, while the rest will be available at market rates. The bread scheme will come into force in about two months and will later include other goods such as chicken, cheese and vegetable oil, officials have said.

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Lebanon -

Hezbollah and its allies lost the majority it held in the Lebanese parliament, as their opponent, the Christian Lebanese Forces, became the largest Christian party in parliament after the final results of the elections in the country were announced on Tuesday. Following are the results of the elections by party, according to L’Orient Le Jour:

* Lebanese Forces: 19 seats
* Free Patriotic Movement (Hezbollah ally): 17 seats
* Amal (Hezbollah ally): 14 seats
* Related to the Future Movement: 8 seats
* Hezbollah: 13 seats
* Kataeb: 4 seats
* Marada (Hezbollah ally): 2 seats
* Progressive Socialist Party: 8 seats
* Opposition Groups formed after economic protests: 13 seats
* Independents: 16 seats
* Linked to March 8 alliance (Hezbollah allies): 9 seats
* Linked to March 14 alliance: 2 seats
* Tashnag (Hezbollah ally): 3 seats

On Monday, Hezbollah MP Mohammed Raad warned other parties to “pay attention to their political discourse and behavior, and to the country’s future” and urged them not to be “fuel for a civil war,” according to Al-Mayadeen.

Hezbollah and its allies won a majority of 71 when Lebanon last voted in 2018. This time 58 seats.

OBSERVATION - Big blow to Hezbollah, after Sunday’s exit polls shows them holding onto control. They will not give up power very easily and the country could face greater civil degradation (as if that is possible). Instability of Lebanon would make any Hezbollah action against Israel difficult as it could see locals covertly aiding Israeli targeting and resistance.
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Turkey -

Turkey is threatening to use its veto to coerce other NATO members to, in part, to halt support for Kurds in Syria. The Turks have become cozy with Russia in Syria and violated NATO rules by purchasing and receiving Russian S400 air defense systems. The latest misbehavior over allowing Finland and Sweden to join has revived calls for developing a mechanism for expelling an existing NATO member. Introducing such a mechanism might take a while depending on how unanimous other members are to do it.
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Venezuela -
The United States is easing some of its tough sanctions on Venezuela in order to encourage political dialogue between President Nicolas Maduro’s regime and its opponents, a senior official said Tuesday.

“The United States is undertaking a number of measures at the request of the Venezuelan interim government and the Unity platform of opposition parties negotiating with the Venezuelan regime, to support their decision to return to the negotiating table in Mexico City,” the US official said.
One action permits US oil firm Chevron to negotiate with the state oil company PDVSA on the terms of any future activities in Venezuela, the official said.

OBSERVATION - Note last line - this is about oil.

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I remember the before years when this was not the behemoth it has grown into and the world wasn’t nutzo.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
The World Economic Forum will hold its 2022 annual meeting in the Swiss mountain resort of Davos from May 22-26, the Geneva-based group said on Friday.

The Swiss government has laid on its biggest military deployment in peace time – not for any war or overseas intervention, but rather to protect the global elite who are gathering in Davos for Klaus Schwab’s annual World Economic Forum confab.
Aside from soldiers erecting security fences, the Swiss government will be deploying some 5,000 military personnel, as well as thousands of local and regional police.
The Swiss Air Force jets will be constantly circling above the event to enforce a ‘no-fly zone’ during the elite globalist summit.

Geneva-based WEF says the meeting will bring together more than 2,000 leaders and experts from around the world, somewhat smaller than some past meetings. No government or corporate bigwigs from Russia were invited, because of the Ukraine war.
Topics on the agenda include the pandemic recovery, tackling climate change, the future for work, accelerating stakeholder capitalism, and harnessing new technologies.

BOLO For the latest schemes to bring the world under global control as they just love to telegraph their next punch.

U.N. chief Antonio Guterres on Wednesday called for an end to oil, gas, and coal use in favor of renewable sources as part of a self-described global climate Marshall Plan.
The veteran Portuguese Socialist spoke ahead of the upcoming World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, which has already issued its own call for net-zero carbon emissions to be driven by a wider embrace of solar and wind power sources without delay.
For its part, the WEF has published a 10-point plan provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as a way to end oil dependence as part of its self-declared Great Reset.
It is just one further step in addressing what the WEF has already taken to calling an “existential threat to the planet.”
The plan includes everything from “car free Sundays” to “avoiding air travel” in its advice as seen below :
1. Reduce speed limits on highways by at least 10km/h
Many countries already use temporary speed limit reductions on highways, mostly to reduce congestion and/or air pollution and to improve road safety.
2. Work from home up to 3 days a week where possible
Around one-third of the jobs in advanced economies can be done from home, opening up the possibility of reducing oil demand while maintaining productivity.
3. Car-free Sundays in cities
Car-free Sundays were introduced in countries such as Switzerland, the Netherlands and West Germany during the 1973 oil crisis. Cities in other countries have used them more recently to promote public health.
4. Reduce public transport prices and incentivize walking and cycling
Investment in public transport and infrastructure to support walking and cycling has been boosted by sustainable economic recovery packages introduced in response to the COVID-19 crisis.
5. Alternate private car access to roads in large cities
Restricting private cars’ use of roads in large cities on alternate weekdays is a measure with a long track record of successful implementation around the world.
6. Increase car sharing and adopt practices to reduce fuel use
Governments can provide additional incentives by designating dedicated traffic lanes and parking spots next to public transport hubs and by reducing road tolls on higher occupancy vehicles. Such measures are in force in suburban areas of cities like Madrid and Houston, among others.
7. Promote efficient driving for freight trucks and goods deliveries
Governments can introduce so-called eco-driving techniques as part of the tuition and examination processes required to receive a driving licence and advanced driving certificates, as has been done in France and other countries.
8. Using trains instead of planes where possible
High-speed rail can substantially replace short-haul air travel on routes that offer affordable, reliable and convenient train journeys.
9. Avoid business air travel where alternative options exist
Although not all business travel by plane can be avoided, in many cases the use of virtual meetings can be an effective substitute. A reduction of around two out of every five flights taken for business purposes is feasible in the short term, based on the changes witnessed during the COVID pandemic.
10. Increase adoption of electric and other more efficient vehicles
By the end of 2021, 8.4 million electric cars were on the roads in advanced economies, building on record sales in Europe in particular. Demand for electric cars continues to be strong, on the back of plummeting costs of batteries in recent years and government support.

OBSERVATION - Most has been posted before, but with wuhan fading, WEF / GGR elements are refocusing on the climate change angle to world control. However, I don’t see any mechanism yet to leverage global compliance as there is no ‘green’ alternative. The ‘green’ agenda is just another scheme to control the world economically .

NOTE - Still watching the as the vote approaches and implications to the US are evaluated.
In a few days, the World Health Organization (WHO), with assistance from the Biden Administration, is set to vote on a provision that could give this organization control of the health directives of 193 countries around the world. Simply stated, in the name of public health, the Biden administration plans to literally hand over America’s national sovereignty to the World Health Organization when the next health emergency hits.
The definition of “health emergency” is vague at best. They could take that approach of leftists here in the US and try to declare gun violence as a ‘health’ emergency - thus negating our constitution protections. Other variations are also available such as global health and climate change, etc. This appears to be the preverbal camel’s nose under the tent.
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Wuhan virus -

The US government has extended again for the nth time the Covid-19 public health emergency past mid-July even though daily new cases of COVID-19 infection have declined since the Omicron surge.
The Department of Health and Human Services has continually extended the public-health emergency since its implementation in January 2020.

OBSERVATION - It is about the maintenance of power.
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Economy -

On Wednesday, US shares recorded their biggest one-day drop since the early days of the Covid pandemic in 2020. The Dow shed 1,164.52 points, or 3.57%, to 31,490.07, the average’s biggest decline since June 2020. It was the lowest close for the Dow since March 2021.
Markets globally were also spooked by gloomy forecasts from major US retailers.

OBSERVATION - Many see the stock market overvalued and prone to more losses. Recent talk by the Fed implying that even bigger rate increases are in the mix and that they may not be enough to get inflation under control - rising fear of recession .

Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said on Wednesday that Americans should not expect immediate relief from high gas prices but maintained that increases in global supply are eventually likely to provide long-term relief for motorists at the pump.
Yellen also warned of the potential for slower growth to combine with inflation worldwide: “Higher food and energy prices are having stagflationary effects, namely depressing output and spending and raising inflation all around the world,” she told reporters.

OBSERVATION - The stagflation concerns inflamed market fears yesterday.

Two children in Memphis have been hospitalized after needing IV fluids and nutritional support due to the baby formula shortage.
The preschooler and toddler, both from different families, were rushed to Le Bonheur Children’s Hospital after their parents failed to secure formula as shelves across America go bare.

OBSERVATION - As I’ve said before, this crisis isn’t due to incompetence - it is deliberate. More infants have been harmed by the shutdown than were alleged to have been by the formula.

MORE - Biden is invoking the Defense Production Act to accelerate the production of baby formula, forcing manufacturers to make ingredients needed and sell them first to formula manufacturers. He’s also ordering use of DOD planes to transport formula from to U.S.
As part of the plan, POTUS Biden is authorizing HHSGov and USDA to find baby formula available overseas and to use DoD civilian aircraft to transport it to the United States, White House says.

OBSERVATION - Cargo aircraft have limited capability for a nation wide crisis as this. They could import enough to relieve a region, but to deal with the whole problem, the whole solution is necessary. This is just white wash over the administration’s malfeasance.

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Invasion of Illegals -

Mayorkas said Tuesday that authorities were prepared for an anticipated increase in migrants crossing the border from Mexico, days before a public health order is set to end after being used to turn people away nearly 2 million times without a chance to seek asylum. Homeland Security has said it will prepare for as many as 18,000 daily crossings, compared with a daily average of about 7,800 in April, though Mayorkas emphasized that those are not projections.

OBSERVATION - This is just more eyewash as it has been made clear under congressional testimony their plan is to simply pass these illegal’s through and into the country.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

In a late night vote, the House of Representatives passed the Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act (H.R.350). The bill authorizes domestic terrorism components within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of Justice (DOJ), and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to monitor, analyze, investigate, and prosecute domestic terrorism, including “white-supremacist-related incidents or attempted incidents.”

OBSERVATION - This essentially is an escalation of the war on conservatives - particularly white conservatives. These expanded authorities will be turned against law-abiding U.S. citizens and will be used to castigate the entire political right as domestic extremists.

Antifa et al continues to provide support to proabort protests across the nation. No large scale violence is anticipated, but likelihood of vandalism and threats/intimidation of any any pro-life individual or groups encountered.

Nina Jankowicz, former “czar” of the Biden administration’s “Ministry of Truth,” joined MSNBC on Wednesday to discuss how the Department of Homeland Security’s Disinformation Governance Board was paused due to “disinformation.”
Senate Democrats abruptly cancelled a hearing last week, where Jankowicz was scheduled to testify, after a multiple of her videos went viral, including one showing her bragging about being the “Mary Poppins of disinformation.” Democrats were reluctant to have Jankowicz face questioning from Republicans, prompting them to scrap the event altogether, which led to the board being disbanded.

OBSERVATION - biden et al will be more discreet in reconstituting their Ministry of Truth, instead of being cocky about it. It is their goal - dominate the narrative and eliminate any opposing views.

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Domestic Terror -

A former National Security Council’s intelligence officer, Chris Chivvis, believes Russia could leverage its network of neo-Nazi and white supremacist groups in Russia, Western Europe, and the U.S.

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in a memo obtained by Axios revealed that government officials are investigating threats to the justices, the clerks, to places of worship, and to abortion clinics.
These threats “are likely to persist and may increase leading up to and following the issuing of the Court’s official ruling,” the memo said.
Axios reported that the memo attempts to link the pro-life movement to white supremacy, highlighting pro-life violence in the past. But the memo emphasizes that the extremist acts might come from pro-abortion individuals.
“The mere advocacy of political or social positions, political activism, use of strong rhetoric, or generalized philosophic embrace of violent tactics does not constitute domestic violent extremism or illegal activity and is constitutionally protected,” the memo adds, according to Axios.

OBSERVATION - Since the release of the draft decision paper, the only threats have come from the left. DHS has to try to spin it towards actions on the right/ pro-life side.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments

In a realignment of U.S. Army aviation assets directed in the November 2021 Global Posture Review, the U.S. Army has activated a permanent Cavalry Squadron equipped with both Apache attack helicopters and RQ-7B surveillance drones. The new squadron, 5-17 Air Cavalry, replaces attack helicopter units that were previously rotated into South Korea on nine-month deployments from U.S.-based units. 5-17 Air Cav will support the Army’s 2nd Infantry Division and U.S. Forces Korea in its mission to defend South Korea. (FO)

The USS Ronald Reagan carrier and USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike groups, the USS America expeditionary strike group, and the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli operate around the Philippine Sea to Japan to Western Pacific, according to the latest fleet tracking report by USNI News.
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China -

Philippines President-elect Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who won last week’s presidential election by a wide margin, stated on Wednesday that he would seek to expand his country’s relations with China and “shift them to a higher gear.” He added that Beijing had assured him of its support for his “independent foreign policy.”

See Japan below on pending joint US/Japan statement on China

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

NSA Sullivan - US intelligence says North Korea could ‘either’ launch a long-range missile or conduct a nuclear test while Biden is in East Asia

South Korea’s spy agency says North Korea has completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test and is gauging the timing of such a blast. Agency also says signs of looming ICBM launch as Biden visits Seoul

OBSERVATION - This will be interesting to see just what test gains Kim the biggest “bang” for his bucks.

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Japan -

United States and Japan have prepared a statement calling for both to “deter and respond to” China’s aggressive military activities in the Indo-Pacific region.
The statement is expected to be released as President Joe Biden visits Tokyo to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida early next week.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russian occupation authorities announced plans to destroy the Azovstal Steel Plant and turn Mariupol into a resort city, depriving Russia of some of the most important economic benefits it hoped to reap by taking the city in the first place.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers predominant in the first half of the 10 day forecast, with drying conditions for the latter half.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv resumed operations Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, nearly three months after removing its diplomats and suspending work there over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The most intense conflict continued in the Donbas region with Russian forces continuing to press their attacks to try to capture a small pocket of ground around the town of Sieverodonetsk.
Ukraine counteroffensive continued with Russians preventing a further northward advance.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian troops shelled Sumy region 5 times today, and Chernihiv region - 2 times with mortars, grenade launchers, howitzers and MLRS
Ukraine announced that the Russian military shelled the settlements of Yanzhulivka in the Chernihiv Oblast and Prohres in the Sumy Oblast, northern Ukraine.

OBSERVATION - These artillery attacks appear to be designed to harass Ukraine forces and attempt to keep forces pinned down and away from reinforcing defensive/offensive efforts to the south.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Once again, a fluid tactical situation .

Ukraine continued its offensive away from Kharkiv, with Russians maintaining its defensive positions in the north and northeast to protect supply routes from Belgorod. Russia has been able to shell northernmost portions of Kharkiv.

Russian forces remained stalemated at Izyum, unable to make any gains yesterday.

Russian forces intensified shelling and conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Popasna. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces attempted to advance southwest and north of Popasna, but could not seize access to highways to Bahmut and Lysychansk. Heavy shelling in Lyman, Bakhmut and Sieverodonetsk areas overnight with intense conflict being reported around Lyman.
Russian action continue to indicate an effort to surround Sieverodonetsk and gain control of road networks.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian forces are continuing to launch air and artillery strikes on the Azovstal Steel Plant, indicating that a remnant of Ukrainian defense is still in the plant despite evacuations over the last few days.

Russian army shelled Novoandriyivka, Kamyanske, Orikhiv, Olhivske, and Poltavka. However they made no gains on the ground.

Crimea Front -
The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces are fortifying in depth in Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts. Russian forces launched missile strikes on Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts yesterday.

Russian army shelled Lupareve, Posad-Pokrovske, Vysunsk, Osokorivka and Novovorontsovka.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Ukraine shelled targets in Tyotkino, Kursk region

OUTLOOK -
Dynamics of the situation can change quickly. I’m at about a 24 hour lag on much of it. Russia will make some gains one day, the next Ukraine.

BLUF - It appears that Ukrainian defenses in eastern Ukraine are stiffing up again and restricting Russian advances. Ukraine counter offensive will continue to pressure Russian forces and threaten Russian supply lines to the Donbas offensive. I see nothing significant changing this scenario in the near term.

The focus of the Russian Donbas operation has shrunk to the attempted capture of Sieverodonetsk and gain control of road networks that may facilitate attacks to the east and southwest. However, Russian force application continues to be very poor and uncoordinated.

Ukraine’s offensive is endanger of becoming stalled by Russian resistance - something that hasn’t been seen often. It is likely that Russian forces have been reinforced by units needed for Donbas - hindering that operation. A key objective for Ukraine forces is Vovchansk, Ukrainan border city on the main supply route between Belgorod and Izyum.

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Moldova/Transnistria -

Moldova says Russia must take its military out of Transnistria. Strong security statement by sandum aiamd at EU parliament yesterday.

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Europe / NATO General -

Turkey blocked the accession of Finland and Sweden in the first vote for NATO. They have four demands; Denounce the PKK, lift arms sales restrictions, bring back the F-35 program, and lift sanctions for Russian-made S-400 anti-air systems.
OBSERVATION - Turkey’s demands echo Russia’s pre-conflict negotiations. They are barganing chips, for EU concessions. They also seem to reflect Turkey’s love/hate relationship with Russia, in this case stalling NATO growth for Russia. Accession of Finland and Sweden could now take over a year as members maneuver and negotiate with Turkey. This also has created more of a move on how to remove members.

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan: We will not accept attacks on Sweden and Finland during their NATO accession process.

Russian response to Finland’s decision to join NATO will come as a surprise, but the measures will be military - Russian Foreign Ministry.
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Syria -

The Moscow Times said that Russia started to withdraw some of its forces from Syria to enhance its presence in Ukraine, and that Iranian-backed militias entered the sites from which the Russian forces had withdrawn

OBSERVATION - I fully expect to see expanded IAF airstrikes on these new iranian/Hezebollah positions once Israel is certain Russians are clear of them.
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Turkey -

See Europe/NATO above

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Black Swans -
A handful of cases of monkeypox have now been reported or are suspected in Britain, Portugal, Spain and the United States.
Portugal has logged five confirmed cases, and Spain is testing 23 potential cases. Neither country has reported cases before. The United States has also reported one case.

“Historically, there have been very few cases exported. It has only happened eight times in the past before this year,” said Jimmy Whitworth, a professor of international public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who said it was “highly unusual.”

Monkeypox is a virus that causes fever symptoms as well as a distinctive bumpy rash. It is usually mild, although there are two main strains: the Congo strain, which is more severe – with up to 10% mortality – and the West African strain, which has a fatality rate in about 1% of cases. The UK cases have been reported as the West African strain.

The virus spreads through close contact, both in spillovers from animals and, less commonly, between humans. One possible scenario behind the rise in cases is increased travel as COVID-19 restrictions are lifted. Experts urged people not to panic.

“This isn’t going to cause a nationwide epidemic like COVID did, but it’s a serious outbreak of a serious disease – and we should take it seriously,” said Whitworth.

OBSERVATION - New scare, however one should be vigilant given that the numbers (though small) are substantially higher than historical measures. Could her a mutation making more transmissive. One other transmission theory is that it is now being passed thru sex.